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      Mike Tomlin Reaches Another N.F.L. Postseason With Fewer Black Peers

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyMike Tomlin Reaches Another N.F.L. Postseason With Fewer Black PeersThe Pittsburgh Steelers’ coach hasn’t had a losing season in 14 years. His acumen and approach have stabilized the team even amid player controversies and as the N.F.L. has struggled with race.“I think whenever you’re a Black coach in his position, that other people put so much pressure on you to do everything,” Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey said of Mike Tomlin. Credit…Scott Taetsch/Getty ImagesJan. 8, 2021Updated 7:59 a.m. ETMaurkice Pouncey, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Pro Bowl center, has been around Mike Tomlin long enough to decipher his coach’s body language.“You see him, and then the next thing you know, he’s so locked in,” Pouncey, a Steeler since 2010, said during a recent telephone interview. “You’re like, ‘Dang. I know not to mess around.’ ”Most players under his leadership came to respect Tomlin’s ability to wed football acumen with a sense of fairness and a consistency, engendering a behind-the-scenes kinship and historic success on the field.He has not had a losing campaign in his 14 seasons as a head coach, navigating the Steelers through controversies that could capsize other franchises. Through it all, Tomlin’s stone-cold facial expression has been as much of constant as the Steelers’ postseason berths — Pittsburgh hosts the Cleveland Browns in the first-round of the playoffs on Sunday evening — even as the N.F.L. has evolved greatly since he became the youngest head coach and second African-American coach to win a Super Bowl after the 2008 season at age 36.“He’s never lied to anyone,” Pouncey said. “And I think sometimes people get it misconstrued that he’s somewhat of a player’s coach. And I get it. He’s really cool with the players, but then when he comes in there, it’s all business.”In public, Tomlin is full of scowls and digestible platitudes showcased throughout games and in news conferences, a vastly different demeanor than his players see.“If you just listen to Coach T talk, he going to spit nothing but game at you,” said Ike Taylor, a cornerback who played a dozen seasons for Pittsburgh before retiring in 2015. “You just got to listen. He’s something like a pastor or a preacher or an evangelist. He just got a way with words where he can just reach out to anybody without even trying to.”Pastor Vernon Shazier occasionally accompanied his son, Ryan, to the Steelers’ facility before Ryan’s career-ending spinal injury in 2017. Tomlin, Shazier said, could tell someone that his play is unacceptable and warn the player that he’d soon be “going shopping” for a replacement if it continued, and then laugh with the player at his locker all in the same day.That candor allowed players like Taylor to forge what he described as an ongoing big-brother relationship with Tomlin.While Taylor was still active, Tomlin learned that he harbored aspirations of one day working in a team’s front office. Tomlin occasionally allowed him to eavesdrop on personnel discussions to gain a deeper understanding of the league’s behind-the-scenes maneuvering.Ike Taylor forged what he described as a big-brother relationship with Tomlin as a cornerback with the Steelers.Credit…Nick Cammett/Diamond Images, via Getty Images“Until it was time for them to really do business, I had to get out,” Taylor said. “I was probably one of the only active players who could sit in draft meetings and sit in on draft day with the organization. He gave me the green light to do a lot of things active players usually couldn’t have done, but that was the relationship him and I had.”Tomlin’s steadiness has been felt especially this seesaw season amid the pandemic. Pittsburgh began the season by reeling off 11 straight wins before its pursuit of a perfect season evaporated with three straight losses, as defenses started encroaching on the aging Ben Roethlisberger’s short-passing game. The Steelers capped their season with another loss to Cleveland in Week 17, though Roethlisberger did not play.Tomlin declined to speak for this article and he’s rarely gone into depth on his background the way he did during a round table discussion this summer with Vernon Lee and Carl Francis, co-founders of the Hampton Roads (Va.) Youth Foundation.Tomlin has been involved with the organization since he started as an N.F.L. assistant in Tampa Bay, helping to mentor the area’s youth. “Carl and I have considered him a partner in this endeavor,” Lee said. “Not just someone who’s coming back as a guest. It still shocks me to be quite honest with him being the head coach for the Steelers, how hands-on he is.”The three men, all natives of coastal southeast Virginia, discussed familiar streets, high schools and area legends. Tomlin eventually discussed the one motto that drives him.“Young people don’t care what you say,” Tomlin said in the talk. “They watch you move.”Tomlin should know. In the round table, he detailed growing up in Hampton, Va., with his older brother, Ed, “a product of a broken home. My parents separated before my first birthday and myself and my brother, we moved back in with her parents,” he said, referring to his mother’s parents.People looked out for their own in the 757, the area code for the seven cities that make up the Hampton Roads community. Adults steered Tomlin. His stepfather, Leslie Copeland, was a large influence. Tomlin followed Ed’s path into football, joining a league at age 7. Coaches of other teams showed genuine interest in the well-being of the young wide receiver, proving to Tomlin that if it took a village, he had found the correct one.Tomlin envisioned a career playing football by the time he arrived at Denbigh High in Newport News, Va. He doodled plays in class to the chagrin of his freshman geometry teacher, Gail Gunter. She warned him before calling his mother, Julia, after he failed to turn in a couple assignments.Gunter challenged Tomlin. Two years later, Gunter served as a counselor for the students competing in Odyssey of the Mind, a scholarly competition. The other students had recruited Tomlin to participate in constructing a vehicle but Gunter could not locate him when it was time to start.“Mike would come moseying on in after all the football players had left because he didn’t want them to see him coming into something that was academic,” Gunter said.The team finished second in the state. Tomlin had asked the other students not to disclose his involvement, which coincided with him asking Julia not to display his honor roll sticker on her car’s bumper.At the College of William & Mary, Tomlin continued drawing a distinction between football and his other pursuits. “I’ve referred to him before as a bit of a closet nerd even though he tries to downplay how smart he is,” said Terry Hammons, a fellow receiver and one of Tomlin’s closest friends at the university.As a student at the College of William and Mary, Tomlin trash-talked opponents on the football field but engaged with tough questions in the classroom.Credit…Cal Sport Media, via Associated Press ImagesDavid Aday, a professor of sociology and American studies, taught Tomlin in a criminology course. Tomlin sought to understand the racial, social and class links between mass incarceration, topics, Aday said, that are typically difficult to discuss.“The fact that he was a young Black man, some of the implications were a little more threatening, distressing,” Aday said. “There are a couple of ways you can deal with that. You can put your head down and say, ‘We’ll get through this conversation and move on.’ Or you can ask, ‘What’s going on here? What do we know that could help us to understand this?’”On the field, Tomlin talked trash to opponents and teammates alike, teetering the difference between inspiring his sideline and infuriating the other. He’d slyly caution Hammons to be safe before receiving punts — in essence, daring Hammons to return the ball.“Mike knew I had a bit of a Napoleon complex and he knew how to get me going,” Hammons said.Tomlin debated for more passes. He took over meetings with Hammons. During film reviews, Zbig Kepa, their receivers coach, sometimes dropped the remote on the table and told his boisterous crew to figure out the tape for themselves.“He was comedy on the field,” Kepa said. “Then, he would really keep that energy level going and communicate and ask questions in meetings.”His hopes of an N.F.L. career fading, Tomlin became the wide receivers coach at Virginia Military Institute in 1995, carving a path to stay involved with the game and using the intellect he had gained from studying it since his youth.He quickly worked his way up the college ranks with stops at Memphis, Arkansas State and Cincinnati, along the way learning the benefits of meticulously planning and documenting his days and charting goals in old Franklin Planners.“I got this Franklin Planner and I bought these cassette tapes, right?” Tomlin said during the round table. “And I committed to a day of watching these cassette tapes and organizing my life through this Franklin Planner. Just thoughts, quotes of the day, appointments, critical notes, call backs, et cetera, et cetera. I needed that organization because I was drowning in life at that time.”That propensity for planning paid off in 2007 when, after six seasons as an assistant in Tampa Bay and Minnesota, he interviewed to replace Bill Cowher as the Steelers’ head coach. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt and assistant head coach Russ Grimm were the favorites to win the job but Tomlin impressed owner Dan Rooney and team president Art Rooney II in his interviews by presenting a detailed plan for the franchise over the next calendar year.Tomlin in his first year as Steelers head coach in 2007. He inherited Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who is now in the twilight of his career.Credit…Joseph Sargent/Icon SMI, via Getty ImagesThe Steelers appointed Tomlin as the franchise’s third head coach since 1969 on the same day that two Black coaches, Tony Dungy’s Indianapolis Colts and Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears, met for the first time in the Super Bowl.“Mike ended up getting his job at a time when there was a lot of discussion about African-Americans being able to get a job, being able to hold it if you got it and who was qualified,” said Terry Robiskie, a longtime N.F.L. assistant coach. “It was always the discussion that they could never find anyone that was qualified.”Tomlin’s hiring was viewed as a success of the Rooney Rule, named after Dan Rooney, the former owner of the Steelers, that requires teams to interview minority candidates for high-profile vacancies. Tomlin joined six other Black men with N.F.L. head coaching jobs the year he was hired; with the Los Angeles Chargers’ recent dismissal of Anthony Lynn after the 2020 regular season, the number of Black N.F.L. head coaches is down to just two — Tomlin and Brian Flores of the Miami Dolphins — in a league where nearly 70 percent of players are African-American.Tomlin is now a veteran coach. The career of Roethlisberger, the Hall of Fame quarterback he inherited, is winding down. Members of the stingy defense passed down to him are long retired. Tomlin’s reputation as a player’s coach was dinged through running back Le’Veon Bell sitting out the 2018 season while seeking a new contract and Antonio Brown’s cycles of drama.Change has swept the broader N.F.L. landscape, too. As the N.F.L. has struggled with its place in the national reckoning on race, Tomlin last year came to the defense of backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, who is white and was accused of using a racist slur toward Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who is Black, during a brawl between the two teams.“He brings the perspective as a Black man with children, but he doesn’t try to force his view on his players and that’s what he’s done from the beginning,” Hammons said.Instead, Tomlin allows his players to deliberate issues collectively to land on a unified response, “allowing them to have a vested interest in the ultimate decision,” Hammons said.That was the goal in 2017. Tomlin allowed his players to debate on whether they would stand or kneel for the national anthem to draw awareness to racial injustice and abuse. The roster did not reach a consensus and decided to stay in the locker room before a game against Chicago. Alejandro Villanueva, an offensive lineman and Bronze Star Medal recipient, stood by himself in the tunnel as the song played.Alejandro Villanueva of the Pittsburgh Steelers stood by himself in the tunnel for the national anthem before a game against the Chicago Bears in 2017.Credit…Joe Robbins/Getty Images“I think whenever you’re a Black coach in his position, that other people put so much pressure on you to do everything,” Pouncey said. “And he’s not here for that. And if you really know Coach Tomlin, he’s a football coach. That’s what he loves. That’s what he dedicates his whole entire life to.”Decades ago, Robiskie met Dungy when the pair roomed together for the East-West Shrine Game, a postseason college showcase. Their paths paralleled. They became friends as part of a small number of Black N.F.L. coaches and sometimes vacationed together with their wives.After dinners, Dungy, by then Tampa’s coach, often brought up the name of a young coach on his staff, full of potential, learning by the day. “Mike who?” Robiskie, then an assistant coach with the Browns, would say. “Tomlin? I’m going to get him just like I get you.”Years later, Robiskie, now a running backs coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars, estimates that his teams are 0-19 against Tomlin.To Robiskie, Tomlin has extended the legacy of coaches like Dungy, Smith, Dennis Green and Art Shell while staying true to himself.The others, Robiskie said, were low-key personalities. “Mike was going to laugh and joke and scream and if he had to get upset and cuss and fuss, he was going to get upset and cuss and fuss,” Robiskie said.He added. “We’ve all got to tip our hats off to him. He’s brought that trophy there once before and I, for one, I get on my knees and pray he brings them another one.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Wild-Card Round

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Wild-Card RoundAn expanded first round is highlighted by a few tough matchups, including Colts-Bills and Ravens-Titans.Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens has lost both of his career starts against the Tennessee Titans — once in last year’s playoffs and again in Week 11 of this season. Jackson is hoping to find playoff success after two seasons ended in disappointment.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressJan. 7, 2021, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. got through all 256 games, no matter how tenuous, completing the regular season. Now, an expanded field of 14 teams enters the playoffs with a chance at qualifying for Super Bowl LV, which is scheduled to be held on Feb. 7 in Tampa, Fla. The format, conceived to balance out the pandemic-related issues of the season, resulted in six games slotted this weekend, rather than the usual four. It also left only two teams with first-round byes, which was terrible news for the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints, both of whom would have been able to sit out this round in a typical season.Here is a look at the wild-card round. Unlike in the regular season, these picks are not made against the spread.Saturday’s GamesStefon Diggs and Josh Allen have turned the Buffalo Bills into must-see TV.Credit…Maddie Malhotra/Getty ImagesIndianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1:05 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 51One of these teams finished in the N.F.L.’s top 10 in offense and defense, and it wasn’t the Bills (13-3). The Colts (11-5) were wildly inconsistent, barely qualified for the playoffs (Buffalo’s blowout win over Miami in Week 17 helped considerably) and had a bad habit of wearing down as games went along. Despite that, they finished with the statistics of a solid contender and the franchise’s best record since 2014.That could fall apart quickly against Buffalo.The Bills’ success starts with quarterback Josh Allen, who progressed from a mistake-prone gunslinger to a legitimate candidate for the Most Valuable Player Award, leading Buffalo to its first division title since 1995. A fair amount of that improvement should be attributed to the arrival of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, whose presence opened the field for Cole Beasley and John Brown. Buffalo finished second in the N.F.L. in scoring, and closed the season with a six-game win streak in which the team averaged 38.2 points a game.The Bills’ defense didn’t rank nearly as high statistically, but cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds led a unit that tied for the third-most takeaways in the N.F.L. After a rocky start to the year, Buffalo’s defense was particularly impressive in late-season wins over the Chargers and the Steelers.The biggest factor in this game will probably be the weather. It is expected to be around 30 degrees in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Saturday afternoon, and Indianapolis’s quarterback, Philip Rivers, hasn’t won with a kickoff temperature below 35 degrees since Week 12 of the 2013 season. A creaky 39-year-old quarterback who has spent nearly his entire career playing in warm weather or domes is not a recipe for January success in western New York. Pick: BillsWhile John Wolford, right, performed admirably in his N.F.L. debut last week, the Los Angeles Rams are hoping Jared Goff, left, will be available this week.Credit…Harry How/Getty ImagesLos Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:40 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -4 | Total: 42.5That we are discussing whether quarterback Jared Goff can play is a testament to medical advances or his toughness, or both. Goff had surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand on Dec. 28 — that would allow for only 11 days of recovery and rehabilitation. Coach Sean McVay has said Goff is throwing in practice and “preparing himself to play,” but should he be ruled out, the Rams (10-6) would turn again to John Wolford, the pride and joy of the Alliance of American Football and the surprise winner of his first N.F.L. start, which came in Week 17.Be it Wolford or a limited version of Goff, the Rams should be underdogs against the Seahawks (12-4). Seattle’s offense was never in question — Russell Wilson is a threat to throw a touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf on almost every play — but after a brutal start to the season, the Seahawks’ defense improved considerably. The only solace for Los Angeles is that Seattle may be without safety Jamal Adams and defensive tackle Jarran Reed, which would significantly weaken the Seahawks’ pass rush.At full strength, this would probably have been a terrific game between N.F.C. West heavyweights. And you can’t count out the Rams as long as defensive tackle Aaron Donald — one of the best players in the N.F.L. at any position — is around. But when taken in its diminished form, this game tilts in Seattle’s direction. Pick: SeahawksThe Washington Football Team isn’t quite ready for prime time — and still needs a name — but opponents have become painfully aware of how much damage the rookie defensive end Chase Young, center, can do in any game. Credit…Patrick Smith/Getty ImagesTampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8 | Total: 45Winning your division is important. The Footballers (7-9) have the worst record of any playoff team — they tied the 2010 Seattle Seahawks for the worst record for a playoff team in N.F.L. history — but they get to host a game against the Buccaneers (11-5) by way of Tampa Bay’s being a wild-card entrant. It may seem unfair, but it wasn’t Washington’s fault that the Buccaneers lost both of their games against division rival New Orleans (by a combined score of 72-26).Home field advantage shouldn’t be ignored, and Washington’s defense should give it a bright future, but Tampa Bay is expected to win easily. Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense got into a groove, ending the season with a four-game streak in which they averaged 37 points a game. And Tampa Bay’s defense, which specializes in getting to the quarterback, should have a field day thanks to the limited mobility of Alex Smith, who is not 100 percent after a calf injury to the same leg that nearly ended his career.If there is a path to victory for the Footballers it would start with turnovers caused by Chase Young and Washington’s upstart defense. Young, a rookie defensive end, appears to have skipped right from promising player to superstar. His day for playoff success will most likely come, but not this week. Pick: BuccaneersSunday’s GamesDerrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans rumbled for 195 yards against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. Can he repeat that success?Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesBaltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1:05 p.m., ABC and ESPNLine: Ravens -3 | Total: 55Only two road teams are favored this weekend, and while Tampa Bay got that distinction thanks to Washington’s ineptitude, the Ravens (11-5) got there by looking nearly unbeatable over the season’s final five weeks.Somewhat written off after a midseason lull, Baltimore took advantage of a soft schedule to get things right, winning five consecutive games with an aggregate score of 186-89. The formula was familiar, with the Ravens rushing for more than 230 yards in four of the five games, but it was clear that a fire had been set under quarterback Lamar Jackson, who largely recaptured the form that made him the N.F.L.’s most valuable player in 2019.Tennessee’s offense is just as intimidating thanks to a formula not all that different from Baltimore’s. Running back Derrick Henry is a nearly unstoppable force — he became just the eighth N.F.L. player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season — and quarterback Ryan Tannehill makes teams pay for stacking the box with deep strikes to wide receiver A.J. Brown.The Titans (11-5) are nowhere near as capable as Baltimore on defense, but making them underdogs at home ignores the fact that the Ravens haven’t had anything resembling a dominant win over a good team since Week 9. It is possible Baltimore would have had similar late-season success against any opponent, but running up the score against teams like Jacksonville and Cincinnati isn’t enough to support such a bold pick. Pick: TitansChicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m., CBS, Nickelodeon and Prime VideoLine: Saints -10 | Total: 47The most interesting part of this game is that Nickelodeon will be doing a broadcast of it for children. There will be animated graphics, guest reporters, filters on the screen and, of course, slime.They couldn’t have picked a better game in which to inject some distraction, as the Bears (8-8) have little business being in the playoffs, let alone playing the Saints (12-4), who were among the N.F.L.’s five best teams this season.Chicago started the season with a 5-1 record, then looked so bad in a six-game losing streak that Coach Matt Nagy’s job appeared to be on the line, and then surprised everyone with three wins to get back in the playoff race. On the season’s final day, the Bears were blown out by Green Bay, but backed into the playoffs because of Arizona’s loss to the Rams.It is hard to imagine quarterback Mitchell Trubisky of the Bears winning a playoff game, but the Saints, who can dominate on both sides of the ball, have repeatedly reminded us that absolutely anything can happen in the playoffs. The Vikings shocked New Orleans in the divisional round of the 2017 season with a Stefon Diggs touchdown catch that will live forever. The Rams got away with an undeserved win in the N.F.C. championship game of the 2018 season thanks to one of the most brutal cases of uncalled pass interference you’ll find. And Minnesota ruined the Saints’ season yet again last year, with Kirk Cousins marching his team 75 yards on nine plays in overtime, throwing a walk-off touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph before Drew Brees could even touch the ball. Pick: SaintsThe Pittsburgh Steelers have frustrated many with a dink-and-dunk approach to offense this season. If they decide to be more aggressive this week, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is more than up for the challenge.Credit…Scott Galvin/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Steelers -6 | Total: 47.5Only 11 teams in the 16-game era have started a season 11-0, and none of the others finished with a record as bad as this season’s Steelers (12-4), who were 1-4 down the stretch. Several factors contributed to Pittsburgh’s collapse, including the team having played the season without a real bye week, injuries to crucial defenders and the decision to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and multiple defensive starters in Week 17. But it is also worth wondering if the Steelers were never as good as their franchise-best start suggested.This is a rematch of the teams’ game in Week 17, which the Browns (11-5) won, 24-22. But the close result had to be disturbing for Cleveland given Mason Rudolph’s starting for Pittsburgh in place of Roethlisberger. Cleveland’s defensive struggles can largely be attributed to three of the team’s four starting defensive backs being out because of coronavirus protocols, but the game was still far more competitive than it should have been.Pittsburgh will have players like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Roethlisberger back this weekend, and while the Browns should get their secondary restored, they will be weakened considerably by having their head coach, Kevin Stefanski, out after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Defensive end Olivier Vernon will be out as well after sustaining a season-ending injury in last week’s win. Of all the games this weekend, this one seems to be the most unpredictable one, but a narrow Pittsburgh victory is the most likely outcome. Pick: Steelers.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Browns Are In, Ending N.F.L. Playoff Drought

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyBrowns 24, Steelers 22Browns Are In, Ending N.F.L. Playoff DroughtCleveland beat Pittsburgh on Sunday, qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season.Quarterback Baker Mayfield, celebrating the Browns’ win on Sunday, delivered on his promise: The team’s makeover began three years ago when he was chosen with the first pick in the N.F.L. draft.Credit…Scott Galvin/USA Today Sports, via ReutersJan. 3, 2021Updated 9:31 p.m. ETCleveland Browns fans love to revel in their misery. The long list of dud coaches. The unending line of quarterback busts. The team abandoning the city only to return a few years later. And all that losing, including a winless season in 2017.But Browns Nation got some measure of payback on Sunday when the Browns beat their rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-22, in the regular-season finale, and qualified for the N.F.L. playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season, an absence of 17 years.The two teams — the Steelers (12-4), as the third seed in the A.F.C., and the Browns (11-5), as the sixth — will meet again next week in Pittsburgh in the wild-card round.The Browns’ victory ended the longest playoff drought in the N.F.L. (the Jets now take over the top spot with a 10-year absence) and completed a makeover that began three years ago when Cleveland chose quarterback Baker Mayfield as the first overall pick in the draft.When asked about what the victory meant to the team’s fans, Mayfield said, “It means so much to this city.”The win, in front of a pandemic-limited crowd of about 12,000 fans at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, provided an extra dose of satisfaction because it came against the Steelers, who have dominated the Browns for decades. Since the Steelers beat the Browns in the wild-card round in January 2003 — Cleveland’s last postseason appearance — Pittsburgh has won 29 of their 36 matchups.During that fallow period, the Browns have burned through 25 quarterbacks, 10 head coaches and a whole lot of hope. The team has gone 91-196 since its last playoff appearance (a .317 winning percentage), a stretch that has included 14 seasons with double-digit losses. Their only winning season during that stretch had been in 2007, when the Browns were 10-6.The Steelers had clinched the A.F.C. North and had no way to claim the top seed in the A.F.C. and its first-round bye, so they sat several of their best players on Sunday, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.The Browns were short-handed as well. Six players were on the Covid-19 list and several offensive linemen were injured. Cleveland went without any starting wide receivers last week in a loss to the Jets because of an outbreak on the team. Several more players and coaches were added to the Covid list since then.This made the challenge bigger for the Browns, even though they were playing at home and against the Steelers’ backup quarterback, Mason Rudolph.The Browns opened with a bang, scoring a touchdown and field goal on their first three possessions, sparked in part by running back Nick Chubb, who passed 1,000 yards rushing for the season.But the Steelers kept the game close with three field goals through three quarters. The Browns, though, found a way to stay one step ahead.After Pittsburgh narrowed the score to 10-9, Mayfield scrambled for 28 yards to keep the next drive alive. He then hit tight end Austin Hooper with a 2-yard touchdown pass to put the Browns up, 17-9.On the ensuing drive, M.J. Stewart of the Browns intercepted Rudolph and returned the ball to the Pittsburgh 20-yard line. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry ran for a touchdown four plays later to push the lead to 24-9.No Browns win over the Steelers comes easily. Rudolph hit wide receiver Chase Claypool for a 28-yard score. On the next drive, the Steelers sacked Mayfield to push the Browns out of field-goal range. They then failed to convert a fourth-down play, which gave the Steelers the ball back with 3 minutes 35 seconds to play.Rudolph hit wide receiver Diontae Johnson for a 47-yard completion, then threw a touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster to narrow the score to 24-22.The Browns broke up the 2-point conversion to maintain the lead, but nearly fumbled the recovery on an onside kick. It wasn’t until Mayfield ran 3 yards for a first down that the Browns were able to run out the clock, secure the win and punch their ticket to the postseason.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 16: What We Learned

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 16 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Steelers came back to beat the Colts, Kansas City survived against Atlanta and Jacksonville secured the No. 1 pick in the draft.Diontae Johnson began the Steelers’ comeback against the Colts with a diving catch for a 39-yard touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger added two more scoring passes in the fourth quarter to help Pittsburgh secure a 28-24 win.Credit…Don Wright/Associated PressDec. 27, 2020Updated 8:22 p.m. ETThe Pittsburgh Steelers overcame a huge deficit to shock the Indianapolis Colts. The Kansas City Chiefs barely beat the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens continued their surge with a win over the Giants. The top spot in the A.F.C. playoffs has been decided — as has the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — but even a few irrelevant teams showed some pluck Sunday.Here’s what we learned:[embedded content]There is some fight left in the Steelers. Pittsburgh came into the day on a three-game losing streak, and appeared to be headed toward a fourth consecutive loss when it fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 24-7, in the third quarter. From that point, the game belonged entirely to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger started the comeback in the third quarter by throwing a deep 39-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson. He then added a 5-yard touchdown to Eric Ebron and a 25-yarder to JuJu Smith-Schuster in the fourth, as Pittsburgh’s defense shut down Indianapolis. The Colts’ final four drives resulted in two punts, an interception and a turnover on downs.Pittsburgh, which clinched the A.F.C. North title with Sunday’s win, is currently a half-game ahead of Buffalo for the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs. Indianapolis, which fell to 10-5, has been one of the N.F.L.’s better teams this season but is currently not in line for a playoff spot because the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns own tiebreakers over the Colts.Kansas City came away with a win, but it required a fairly shocking miss by Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, who came into the day 19 for 19 on field goal attempts of less than 40 yards.Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressThe Chiefs love to play with fire. A win was hardly necessary for Kansas City, as the Chiefs were virtually assured of the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs even if they lost their final two games. But watching Kansas City barely hang on for a 17-14 win at home over the Atlanta Falcons reinforced the idea that Patrick Mahomes’s team tends to play down to its competition. A sloppy effort against Atlanta had the Chiefs losing, 14-10, with just over two minutes remaining, and would have headed to overtime if not for an unlikely miss from Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, as the Pro Bowl kicker’s attempt at a game-tying 39-yard field goal sailed wide right.Regardless of how close they cut it, the Chiefs improved to 14-1 and clinched the A.F.C.’s only first-round bye. Perhaps by the divisional round of the playoffs, the Chiefs will decide that it is important to try for the entire game.Baltimore’s Gus Edwards led a rushing attack that produced 249 yards on 40 carries.Credit…Terrance Williams/Associated PressThe Ravens control their playoff destiny. Baltimore dropped to 6-5 with a loss to Pittsburgh on Dec. 2 — the team’s fourth defeat in five games — and seemed like a long shot to make the playoffs. A soft schedule, and a return to form by quarterback Lamar Jackson, has righted the ship and thanks to a 27-13 victory over the Giants, the Ravens can now secure the team’s third straight trip to the playoffs simply by beating the Cincinnati Bengals next week. Baltimore’s four-game win streak has included only one victory over a team with a winning record, but an average of 37 points a game is impressive no matter the opponent.The Ravens, who thrive when chewing up huge chunks of yardage on the ground, have averaged 233.3 yards rushing a game in the four-game win streak after having been held to fewer than 200 in nine of their first 11 games.Taylor Heinicke was forced into action at quarterback for Washington after Dwayne Haskins was benched. It is unclear who will start at quarterback for Washington in next week’s crucial game.Credit…Mark Tenally/Associated PressCeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both had huge days for Dallas as the Cowboys demolished the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas somewhat surprisingly still has a shot at making the playoffs.Credit…Ron Jenkins/Associated PressThere will be a division winner with a losing record. The Washington Football Team came into the day with dreams of finishing the season at 8-8, but a 20-13 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers dropped Washington to 6-9, meaning the N.F.C. East will be won by a team that is, at best, 7-9. The division’s teams have often been hard to watch, but they will provide the most exciting subplot of Week 17, as the Footballers, the Dallas Cowboys and the Giants will all go into the season’s final day with a chance at earning a playoff game at home. Washington can make it nice and simple by winning a road game against the eliminated Philadelphia Eagles — a result that would be far more attainable should quarterback Alex Smith return from a calf injury.Frank Gore is going out in style. After a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in November dropped the Jets to 0-10, Gore, 37, addressed his team’s struggles (and his own future), saying “You don’t want to go 0-16, especially if this is my last year. I can’t go out like that.” Last week Gore helped the Jets end their 13-game losing streak by scoring the 100th touchdown of his career. This week he ran for a team-high 48 yards as the Jets beat the Cleveland Browns, 23-16. In doing so, Gore joined Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton as the only players in N.F.L. history with at least 16,000 yards rushing — only two other active players, Detroit’s Adrian Peterson (14,757) and Tampa Bay’s LeSean McCoy (11,102), have more than 10,000.Provided he decides to declare for the N.F.L. draft, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will almost assuredly be headed south to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Credit…Ken Ruinard/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTrevor Lawrence is moving about six hours south. The downside of Gore getting his wish to go out well with the Jets is the team having officially handed the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft to the Jacksonville Jaguars, which almost assuredly will lead to Lawrence, Clemson’s star quarterback, taking a long drive down I-95 to replace Gardner Minshew rather than heading north to replace Sam Darnold. The Jaguars were emphatic in their failure on Sunday, losing by 41-17 to the suddenly surging Chicago Bears. But at least on offense Jacksonville should be a terrific landing spot for Lawrence, as he will immediately be handed a good young running back (James Robinson) and two talented young wide receivers (D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr.)One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Kansas City’s Travis Kelce needs just 84 yards receiving to become the first tight end to have 1,500 in a season. His biggest obstacle is the likelihood that the Chiefs will rest multiple starters after having already clinched a first-round bye. Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressChiefs 17, Falcons 14 It was a quiet day by Kansas City’s lofty standards, and the team’s running game looked far less effective without the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but the Chiefs did have the silver lining of Travis Kelce reaching 1,416 yards receiving for the season, breaking the single-season record for a tight end set by George Kittle in 2018. Kelce has one more game to add to his total, provided Kansas City doesn’t rest him in next week’s irrelevant game against the Los Angeles Chargers.Steelers 28, Colts 24 At halftime, Indianapolis was romping to an easy win. The second half was another story, as the Steelers stopped trying to dink and dunk themselves to victory and had their aggressiveness pay off in spades, with the team earning its first A.F.C. North title in three seasons.Ravens 27, Giants 13 The Giants’ third straight loss was largely a result of Baltimore’s offense overwhelming them, but the Ravens’ defense had a fine day as well, making Daniel Jones’s life miserable with six sacks and 11 quarterback hits.Seattle’s defense was terrible for most of the season, but the team has been showing dramatic improvement on that side of the ball. Quandre Diggs’s interception in the second quarter of Sunday’s game ended a promising drive by the Rams.Credit…Scott Eklund/Associated PressSeahawks 20, Rams 9 It was hardly an explosive effort, but Seattle clinched the N.F.C. West title, kept alive a small chance at a first-round bye, and continued to show dramatic improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Despite its loss, Los Angeles controls its own fate next week. A win would give the Rams a wild-card spot in the playoffs.Jets 23, Browns 16 It took a total team effort for Cleveland to lose, with Baker Mayfield completing just 28 of his 53 passes, the Browns’ celebrated running game averaging just 2.5 yards a carry and the team’s defense making the Jets’ Sam Darnold look downright competent. A win would have clinched a playoff spot for Cleveland, but the Browns will now go into Week 17 fighting with Miami, Baltimore and Indianapolis for the three wild-card spots in the A.F.C.Cowboys 37, Eagles 17 Everything went right for Dallas, with Andy Dalton throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns, Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 105 yards and Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb all putting on a show against Philadelphia’s overwhelmed secondary. Jalen Hurts topped 300 yards passing for a second consecutive week, but wasn’t able to turn that yardage into enough points.Curtis Samuel has been remarkably versatile for Carolina this season. He and Christian McCaffrey could present matchup problems for opponents should McCaffrey get back to full health next season.Credit…Mitchell Layton/Getty ImagesPanthers 20, Footballers 13 Curtis Samuel put on a show for Carolina, piling up 158 yards from scrimmage, but the story of the day was quarterback Dwayne Haskins being benched for ineffective play on the heels of losing his captaincy as a result of off-field behavior. You have to assume that Haskins’s days in Washington are numbered.Chargers 19, Broncos 16 Denver had the ball with a chance to win the game in the final minute, but Drew Lock’s desperation heave was intercepted, handing Los Angeles its sixth win of the season.Chicago’s Jimmy Graham caught two touchdown passes on Sunday, giving him 82 for his career. Among tight ends, only  Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski have more.Credit…James Gilbert/Getty ImagesBears 41, Jaguars 17 It is not like Jacksonville had any motivation to win — quite the opposite — but watching Chicago put up 28 consecutive points to start the second half couldn’t have been very fun. Chicago’s win, combined with Arizona’s loss on Saturday, has the Bears in line for the N.F.C.’s final wild-card spot. That sets up an entertaining Week 17 in which Chicago closes its season with a home game against the top-seeded Green Bay Packers, and the Cardinals have a tough matchup on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.Bengals 37, Texans 31 Brandon Allen threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns and Samaje Perine ran for 95 yards and two scores, powering Cincinnati to its first road win since Sept. 30, 2018. Houston dropped to 4-11, having absolutely wasted a season of quarterback Deshaun Watson’s prime.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Colts are favored on the road in Pittsburgh, the Rams will try to stay alive in Seattle and a frozen matchup between Tennessee and Green Bay should still have plenty of offense.Linebacker Darius Leonard is one of the game’s best defenders. The Colts finally surrounded him with enough talent for that to matter.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressDec. 24, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. playoff picture should come into sharp focus this weekend, with several division titles and wild-card spots likely to be decided. There will be games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and while a few of them are irrelevant, most can have an impact on the standings.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 16, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-6-2Overall record: 110-107-7A look ahead at Week 16:Sunday’s Best GamesFriday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesIndianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -1.5 | Total: 44.5The Colts (10-4) have seemed better than the Steelers (11-3) for much of this season — and the team’s records are getting closer to reflecting that.Indianapolis has won five of its last six games, getting contributions from newcomers (the rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner) and mainstays (linebacker Darius Leonard, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton). A tiebreaker has the Colts trailing Tennessee in the A.F.C. South, but there is no question Indianapolis did a fine job of rebuilding its team in the last off-season.Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is falling apart. There was a sense during the team’s 11-0 start that the Steelers (11-3) were being overrated, but no one expected three straight losses. Before this year, only nine teams had opened with an 11-0 record in the 16-game era, and just one of those — the 2009 New Orleans Saints — lost three of its final five games. That Pittsburgh matched that ignominious feat with two games remaining is humiliating, but the Steelers can take solace in the fact that the Saints won the Super Bowl that season.Being a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh this late in the season is unusual territory for the Colts, but based on what we have seen in recent weeks, it seems justifiable. Pick: Colts -1.5Green Bay’s Davante Adams has a career high in touchdowns (14) and a chance to set a personal best in receiving yards despite missing two games.Credit…Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Packers -3.5 | Total: 56Only three teams are averaging more than 30 points a game, and two of them face off here. Oddsmakers are expecting it to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and while 56 is a respectable number, you have to wonder how much higher that would be if the forecast in Green Bay didn’t call for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.The Titans (10-4) have been on a roll, with Derrick Henry running roughshod over all comers and Ryan Tannehill making opponents pay for stacking the box by stretching the field with the passing game. That recipe has led to five straight games in which Tennessee had at least 420 yards of total offense and 30 points.The Packers (11-3) have been enjoying an M.V.P.-level season from Aaron Rodgers and a career year from wide receiver Davante Adams, leading to Green Bay’s being held to fewer than 30 points just three times. And while Aaron Jones has fewer rushing touchdowns than he did last season, he is on track to surpass last year’s rushing total while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.Both teams have a great deal of motivation to win, with Tennessee trying to fight off Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South title and Green Bay on the verge of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye. But the Packers’ experience in poor weather could be what decides this one. Pick: Packers -3.5Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -1.5 | Total: 47.5You have to assume the Rams (9-5) squandered their chance at an N.F.C. West title with last week’s abject failure against the Jets. Los Angeles could have come into this game with the same record as the Seahawks (10-4). Instead, Seattle can clinch the division with a win at home. The Rams are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs — a win for them or a loss by Chicago will be enough to get them there — but it is hard to be enthusiastic about a team that allows itself to be beaten by the Jets, who had a talent deficiency at every position. Pick: Seahawks -1.5Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Chiefs -10.5 | Total: 54There is little at stake in this game. The Falcons (4-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention, and while the Chiefs (13-1) can clinch the A.F.C.’s lone first-round bye with a win, they would still have a 98 percent chance of the top seed even if they lost both of their remaining games, according to The Upshot.With stakes that low, there is no reason to rush the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kansas City should be considering resting other key players as well. That could open the door for Atlanta to cover, but the Chiefs should still win. Pick: Falcons +10.5Friday’s MatchupJustin Jefferson, right, and Adam Thielen, center, are frequent dance partners in the end zone, but Minnesota’s defense tends to let the team down.Credit…Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMinnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 51.5Even with consecutive losses, the Saints (10-4) can secure their fourth consecutive division title simply by beating the Vikings (6-8) or having Tampa Bay lose.Will Minnesota put up much resistance? Probably not enough to matter. The Vikings have an incredibly talented offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen putting on a show even in losses. But Minnesota’s defense is still so young and inconsistent that the team typically gives up just enough points to lose.Drew Brees looked rusty last week, and wide receiver Michael Thomas is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. So while a New Orleans win is likely, this game could be close. Pick: Vikings +7.5Saturday’s MatchupsRather than throwing within 10 yards of Miami’s Xavien Howard, opponents should consider punting the ball away. The net result would be preferable.Credit…Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Dolphins -3 | Total: 47.5At this point it is ridiculous that opposing quarterbacks are challenging Xavien Howard of the Dolphins (9-5). He is the top-rated coverage cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, but teams have thrown in his direction often enough that he is leading the N.F.L. with nine interceptions and has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games.If the Raiders (7-7) want to win this game, they should give Howard the old Darrelle Revis “island” treatment. But it shouldn’t matter much if Derek Carr (injured groin) or Marcus Mariota starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, as the Dolphins are a better team and have more motivation to win thanks to their dogfight with Baltimore for the A.F.C.’s last wild-card spot. Pick: Dolphins -3Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Buccaneers -9.5 | Total: 54When Matthew Stafford inevitably makes a run at Drew Brees’s record for career passing yards, stretches like the final three weeks of this season will be a big reason. Stafford sustained a rib injury in Week 14; it was serious enough that he struggled to walk. He surprised everyone by starting in Week 15, and threw for 252 yards in a loss to Tennessee. Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention, and Stafford’s ribs are still extremely sore, but the team’s interim coach, Darrell Bevell, said there were no plans to shut down the veteran quarterback: “To be honest with you, I don’t think he’ll let that happen.”So what should people expect from this game? Between hard hits from the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers (9-5), Stafford will probably throw for 250 to 300 yards and the Lions (5-9) will lose anyway. Because a win or a tie will put Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, that series of events will be acceptable to the Buccaneers. Covering the spread will be harder, though, with running back Ronald Jones out after a positive test for the coronavirus. Pick: Lions +9.5San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m., Prime VideoLine: Cardinals -5 | Total: 49Both teams should feel at home since the 49ers (5-9) have relocated to Arizona as a result of coronavirus regulations in California. That’s the most interesting subplot of a game between San Francisco’s injury-riddled team and the Cardinals (8-6), an up-and-coming squad that can clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 by winning Saturday and having Chicago lose to or tie Jacksonville. With Nick Mullens requiring elbow surgery, San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Quarterback record is an overrated statistic, but Beathard has lived up to his last name with a career mark of 1-9. Pick: Cardinals -5Sunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown have had fun beating up on lesser teams in the last few weeks. That trend could continue.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesGiants at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Ravens -11 | Total: 45The Giants (5-9) are clinging to a shred of a chance at winning the N.F.C. East, but they are running into the Ravens (9-5) at the wrong time. Baltimore is through its tough patch and appears to have its offensive issues worked out — at least against the league’s lesser teams — and that takes this game from potentially interesting to a comical mismatch.The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to overtake Miami for the A.F.C.’s last playoff spot, and a home game against a team that is coming apart at the seams is an excellent opportunity for them to flex their muscles. Pick: Ravens -11Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Footballers -2.5 | Total: 44.5The late-night escapades of Dwayne Haskins resulted in the young quarterback being fined, but he wasn’t suspended. That leaves the Footballers (6-8) with a decent enough option should Alex Smith be unable to return from a calf injury. Smith is the team’s best option, and gives Washington its best chance of making the playoffs, but his health casts doubt on this game against the Panthers (4-10) that wouldn’t be there if he were 100 percent.The combination of a Washington win and a loss by the Giants would secure the N.F.C. East title for the Footballers, and having that decided this week would be welcome for a team that is trying to get healthy. Pick: Footballers -2.5Cleveland Browns at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -9.5 | Total: 47The Jets (1-13) had no motivation to beat the Rams last week beyond avoiding a winless season, but that was enough to power them to the most surprising result of the year. The victory, however, splashed cold water on their future. Combined with tiebreaker scenarios, the win meant the Jets were no longer in line for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.Now they will host the Browns (10-4), who are significantly better than them in every facet of the game. Cleveland can clinch its first playoff berth since 2002 by winning and having Baltimore, Miami or Indianapolis lose. Pick: Browns -9.5Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -7.5 | Total: 47Despite a recent surge, the Bears (7-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While a win over the Jaguars (1-13) is certainly attainable — if Jacksonville loses out, it will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — Chicago’s only real shot at the playoffs is to have Arizona fall apart. It’s still nice to see the Bears right the ship, even if it leads to nothing, as the team’s defense deserved much better than it got from its offense during a six-game losing streak. The Bears should win, but there are too many variables to assume they will cover. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterThe Eagles have been doing a lot of celebrating since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersPhiladelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Eagles -2.5 | Total: 49.5The ridiculous nature of the N.F.C. East means that neither of these teams has been officially eliminated. But the Eagles (4-9-1) have only a 10 percent chance of capturing the N.F.L.’s worst division, according to The Upshot, and the Cowboys (5-9) have a 6 percent chance. The game is worth watching to see Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts continue to grow into his role as a starting quarterback, and Dallas’s skill players are good enough to make Andy Dalton serviceable on a good day. Pick: Eagles -2.5Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -3 | Total: 48.5Come for the meeting of promising young A.F.C. West quarterbacks. Stay if it is your local broadcast and you don’t have access to out-of-market games. The Broncos (5-9) and the Chargers (5-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but these will be teams to watch for next season. Pick: Chargers -3Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Texans -8 | Total: 46The Bengals (3-10-1) are fresh off an upset of Pittsburgh, and thanks to Deshaun Watson, the Texans (4-10) can often do an impression of a competent team. There isn’t a lot of motivation to go around, which makes a hefty point spread a bit curious. Pick: Bengals +8Monday’s MatchupIn his first season with the Bills, Stefon Diggs has career highs in receptions and receiving yards.Credit…Jack Dempsey/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m., ESPN and ABCLine: Bills -7 | Total: 46How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are. After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first A.F.C. East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out. But Coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass.A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory. Pick: Bills -7How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Colts -1.5, for example, means that Indianapolis must beat Pittsburgh by at least 2 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Can Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storytrend watchCan Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?Sure, Kansas City (12-1) is flawed, but its closest challengers have a long way to go to usurp a Super Bowl berth.Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, left, and receiver Tyreek Hill, with football, usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for any Chiefs miscues.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesDec. 16, 2020, 3:00 a.m. ETThe only real danger to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs will be the Chiefs themselves.The defending N.F.L. champions have grown bored of terrestrial football lately. The Chiefs (who have already clinched the A.F.C. West) now strive to turn their games into inscrutable performance art installations, allowing inferior opponents to stay close while they execute play concepts that appear to have been found scribbled in the margins of Hunter S. Thompson manuscripts.Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for their penalties, turnovers and self-indulgent noodling, but the Chiefs’ weekly attempts to commune with the cosmos could eventually result in a playoff upset that allows one of the following pretty good — but far from flawless — challengers to represent the A.F.C. in the Super Bowl.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)The Steelers rose to 11-0 by pummeling opponents’ backup quarterbacks while hoping that no one noticed that their offense is built entirely out of screen passes. The Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills figured out in recent victories over the Steelers that Ben Roethlisberger now throws the football like he’s trying to float a Ping-Pong ball into a red plastic cup. The Steelers’ defense remains dominant, when not dealing with health issues, and the team can find reassurance in the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers nearly beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season with the same set of strengths and weaknesses.Buffalo Bills (10-3)Decades in the shadow of the New England Patriots left the Bills with a deep-seated inferiority complex, and they lost important midseason games to the Chiefs and Tennessee Titans after a 4-0 start by playing as if they simply felt unworthy of being counted among the A.F.C. front-runners.The Bills appear to have outgrown their self-doubt in recent victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Steelers, but behavioral conditioning can be hard to break. If quarterback Josh Allen transforms back into an interception-happy Winter Soldier when the Bills visit the Patriots in Week 16, it may mean that the Bills have been irrevocably compromised.Tennessee Titans (9-4)Running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You,” or a holiday shopper stiff-arming store greeters and grandparents en route to an (empty) PlayStation 5 display. Henry rushed for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and he appears determined to stuff the Titans’ traditional smash mouth values down everyone’s throats for the holidays just like he did last year.The Titans’ defense is not nearly as rugged and playoff-ready as their old-fashioned reputation might suggest, but bludgeoning skeptics into quiet acquiescence is also a December tradition, as is post-holiday disappointment.Titans running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter or Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You.” Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesCleveland Browns (9-4)With their balanced offense and dangerous pass rush, the Browns are almost ready to compete for the Super Bowl. But the universe itself is not quite ready for the Browns to compete for the Super Bowl; Lamar Jackson’s recovery from mid-game cramps and fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Browns in Monday night’s 47-42 thriller may have been reality’s way of repairing a dangerous rift in its own fabric.The Browns are enjoying their first winning season since 2007. Allowing them to enjoy anything more would simply be too much pleasure for anyone to experience in 2020.Indianapolis Colts (9-4)The Colts are kit-bashed together from leftover pieces of the 2010s San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (Philip Rivers), 2017 Minnesota Vikings (cornerback Xavier Rhodes) and last year’s 49ers (defensive tackle DeForest Buckner), all hot-glued onto the frame of the Andrew Luck-era team. As a result, they look pretty good until you examine closely and realize that they were cobbled together almost purposely so they could lose a playoff game.Miami Dolphins (8-5)The Dolphins are better at making opponents look foolish than at making themselves look like legitimate contenders. They combined takeaways (they’re tied with the Steelers for the N.F.L. lead with 25) with excellent special teams and an ultraconservative offense to upset the Los Angeles Rams, throw a scare into the Chiefs last week and win lots of low-scoring games against the Jets and other bottom-feeders.Like the Bills, the Dolphins may be programmed by decades of hopelessness to self-destruct if they come too close to success. Head coach Brian Flores already benched rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in one loss in what looked like a panicky move, and Flores might be tempted to turn again to Ryan Fitzpatrick when he needs a comeback, not realizing that the real “FitzMagic” is the outsized reputation the journeyman backup has nurtured by almost winning meaningful games.Baltimore Ravens (8-5)With their midseason swoon behind them but with obvious lingering shortcomings on both sides of the ball, the Ravens are barreling toward yet another off-season of “why can’t Lamar Jackson win playoff games?” conversations. Come late January, that may be the only thing fathers-in-law on Facebook have to talk about.Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season in November. But asking them to be on the field during the playoffs is a stretch.Credit…David Becker/Associated PressThe Raiders remain mathematically alive but have lost three of their last four games, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther on Sunday after surrendering 44 points in a loss to the Colts and (more troublingly) 28 points in a near-loss to the Jets.The Raiders upset the Chiefs in Week 5 and lost by just four points in the Week 11 rematch, so they cannot be discounted as a threat if they reach the playoffs. But again: The trick to winning the A.F.C. is to be on the field when the Chiefs decide to beat themselves. The Raiders are the least likely of the A.F.C. playoff hopefuls to position themselves to make that happen.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Bills Beat the Steelers, Surging as a Rival Sinks

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyBills 26, Steelers 15Bills Beat the Steelers, Surging as a Rival SinksBuffalo can clinch the A.F.C. East title on Saturday. Pittsburgh fell behind Kansas City in the race for the top seed in the playoffs.Stefon Diggs had 10 catches for 130 yards, including this 19-yard touchdown early in the third quarter.Credit…Matt Durisko/Associated PressDec. 14, 2020, 8:49 a.m. ETAfter the interception that cemented Buffalo’s standing among the N.F.L. elite, the Bills’ defense assembled and jogged the remaining length of the field together, toward the end zone and the cameras and oceans of blue seats. It was midway through the fourth quarter Sunday on a night at Bills Stadium that begged for fans, dancing in the aisles to “Shout” and swilling their Labatts and celebrating a victory that reverberated far beyond western New York.Buoyed by a defensive touchdown just before halftime and two scores immediately after the break, the Bills toppled the Pittsburgh Steelers, 26-15, with the outcome evoking a pebble skimming across a pond.One wave fanned out from the home locker room, where a most dangerous team continued to gain confidence as it approaches a prize that has eluded it since before its cherished quarterback, Josh Allen, was born: With a two-game lead over Miami, the Bills (10-3), who have the franchise’s best record through 13 games since 1991, could clinch their first A.F.C. East title in 25 years as soon as next week.Another ripple registered throughout the Steelers (11-2), who only a week ago were unbeaten — imperfect but unbeaten. Pittsburgh has lost two straight, and if Buffalo is soaring as the playoffs draw near, then the Steelers are flailing, as if grasping for a light switch in the dark, struggling without an explosive offense.But the biggest ripple of all jostled the A.F.C. landscape, where the Steelers dropped behind the Kansas City Chiefs (12-1), who won in Miami, in the race for the top seed in the playoffs. Even if the Bills’ playoff positioning itself didn’t change, they reasserted their place within that hierarchy.As the N.F.L. has evolved, the best teams are those with dynamic passing offenses and defenses that can slow down the aerial game just enough. Sitting on Ben Roethlisberger’s short throws and blitzing him off the edge, the Bills hounded him into his worst game of the season.“If I don’t play good enough football, then I need to hang it up,” said Roethlisberger, who went 21 of 37 for 187 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. “I still feel like I can do enough things to help this team win football games, and I’ll do everything I can to get us back on track.”Ed Oliver and the Bills defense harassed Ben Roethlisberger into his worst game of the season.Credit…Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressA Pittsburgh defense, meantime, that embellished its bona fides the previous six games against the likes of Garrett Gilbert and Jake Luton and Robert Griffin III was on Sunday exposed by an unfamiliar phenomenon: a formidable passing attack. Missing three starters, including cornerback Joe Haden, the Steelers managed to contain Allen and his cadre of explosive receivers for one half but not two.In that first half, Stefon Diggs caught three passes, and after the Bills took a 9-7 lead just before the break on a 51-yard interception return by Taron Johnson — their first defensive touchdown of the season — they spent halftime sorting out how to unlock an offense that had gained only 102 yards.They did that in two ways, Allen said.One: “I started completing it to the right guys.”Two: “We started throwing it to Stef.”Allen completed his first 11 passes after halftime, a stretch of brilliance that included touchdowns to Diggs and the rookie Gabriel Davis, neither of whom were on the Bills last season.As the Bills sought to mold Allen’s bountiful physical talent into a trustworthy N.F.L. quarterback, they surrounded him with what could be the deepest and most reliable receiving corps in the league. Heading that group is Diggs, who in his first season with Buffalo after being acquired in a trade from Minnesota has caught 100 passes — tying the franchise’s single-season record. Six of those catches on Sunday (for 83 of his 130 receiving yards) came on the two third-quarter scoring drives that capped a string of 23 consecutive points.“Diggs is so special that as I see him play, I just want to rip off my captain’s ‘C’ and throw it on his chest,” offensive tackle Dion Dawkins said.Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes as the Bills moved within a game of clinching their first A.F.C. East title since 1995.Credit…Bryan M. Bennett/Getty ImagesBefore Sunday, the last time Diggs scored was in Week 10 at Arizona, a late go-ahead touchdown that would only be eclipsed by Kyler Murray’s game-winning Hail Mary. The Bills had won three in a row before that loss, and they have won three in a row since, overcoming the stage fright that doomed them in earlier defeats against two other A.F.C. contenders, Tennessee and Kansas City.The Steelers may not live in their fears, as their coach, Mike Tomlin, likes to say, but they have now laid bare their shortcomings three times in 12 days. After playing what he called “junior varsity” football in a close win over Baltimore, and producing “catastrophic” results on short-yardage failures in a loss to Washington, the Steelers’ performance Sunday was not an aberration or an anomaly but evidence of a trend.Asked if there was enough time before next week’s game against Cincinnati to fix an offense that regained center Maurkice Pouncey and running back James Conner but still averaged 2.8 yards on 17 carries, Tomlin replied with one word: Yes. If he is wrong, Pittsburgh might be wise to start monitoring the Browns, who, if they beat Baltimore on Monday night, would inch within a game of the Steelers in the A.F.C. North. The teams will meet in Week 17 in Cleveland.That division might be unsettled, but the A.F.C. East is not. Long the domain of the New England Patriots, it soon shall belong to the Buffalo Bills, who, week after week in this bizarre season, are making their fans wish they were there to see this ascent for themselves.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL. Week 14 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 14 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Patriots and the Rams will get things started on Thursday in a week in which plenty of teams are fighting for playoff spots.This is the type of swagger a defense develops when Xavien Howard, second from left, repeatedly makes teams pay for  mistakes. But the Miami Dolphins will have their hands full against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.Credit…Doug Murray/Associated PressDec. 10, 2020Updated 12:24 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. made its way through a few weeks of odd schedules caused by coronavirus delays, and appears set for its first “normal” week in a while. Or at least the league is starting out with that plan until any virus-related adjustments are needed.The week doesn’t have a signature game to look forward to, but matchups between the Chiefs and Dolphins and the Steelers and Bills are entertaining enough, and more than a few teams should be looking to step up as they fight for spots in the expanded playoff field.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 14, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-7Overall record: 94-93-5A look ahead at Week 14:Sunday’s Best GamesThursday’s MatchupSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesKansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -7 | Total: 49.5It is nice to be the Chiefs (11-1). Kansas City let Denver stay uncomfortably close for much of last week’s game and then simply pushed the “win now” button, got a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce, a 48-yard field goal from Harrison Butker and a win-sealing interception from Tyrann Mathieu. That it looked so easy made the rest of the game remarkably frustrating in retrospect.The Dolphins (8-4) are not on the Chiefs’ level, but they are also not a team to trifle with. Miami’s defense can make an opponent pay for its mistakes — cornerback Xavien Howard is leading the N.F.L. in interceptions (eight) and passes defended (16) — and the team’s offense is adept at chewing up clock and doing enough to score.The script for this game could mirror Kansas City’s previous game. Miami could easily stay in it for much of the game, but when the Chiefs need to score, Mahomes will make that happen. The Dolphins deserve plenty of respect, but being only 7-point underdogs to the Chiefs is its own version of respect. Pick: Chiefs -7Buffalo’s Josh Allen has stayed cool under pressure this season, and he has people respecting the Bills. Credit…Ralph Freso/Getty ImagesPittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Bills -2.5 | Total: 46.5Earlier this week, people were openly wondering if the Steelers (11-1) could go undefeated. One not entirely shocking loss to Washington later, and Pittsburgh is an underdog against the Bills (9-3). The reasons, for the loss and the betting line, are injuries on defense, which are weakening the team’s biggest strength, and a slumping offense.Buffalo is coming off a big win over San Francisco, looking like a good bet to win the A.F.C. East and making people talk about quarterback Josh Allen as an emerging superstar. Unless Pittsburgh turns it around on both sides of the ball, it may go from 11 consecutive wins to two straight losses. Pick: Bills -2.5Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 52The Buccaneers (7-5) have disappointed a bit this season. The team was expected to take a leap defensively and, with Tom Brady added to the offense, even out the kinks from the Jameis Winston era. The team has been inconsistent, rather than bad, but has lost back-to-back games by 27-24. Its surprising defensive woes may continue against the Vikings (6-6), who have plenty of their own flaws, but no problems scoring.While not a must-win game for Tampa Bay, it would take pressure off the Buccaneers in their hunt for an N.F.C. wild card to win this one at home. Pick: Vikings +6.5Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -3 | Total: 51.5The Colts (8-4) got away with one last week, taking advantage of a fumbled snap to hold on for a close win over Houston. That was nothing compared with the Raiders (7-5), who had a win gifted to them by the Jets in the closing seconds of the game. But wins are wins, and with both of these teams fighting for playoff spots, they were lucky to get them.Running back Josh Jacobs is unlikely to return from injury for Las Vegas, and Indianapolis is simply farther along in its development. The Colts should be expected to win on the road. Pick: Colts -3Thursday’s MatchupIf teams give Robert Woods of the Rams an inch, he often takes a mile. Los Angeles would bolster its chances of winning the N.F.C. West with a win over New England.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressNew England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Rams -5 | Total: 44.5With four wins in five games — and the lone loss a fairly close game against Houston — the Patriots (6-6) may not be pretty, but they are mostly getting the job done. The team’s defense has recovered from some issues to return to a reasonable facsimile of last year’s dominant crew, and its offense lacks consistency but can keep the team in games. A road game against the Rams (8-4), however, is a real test of just how good New England can be. Los Angeles has enough offense to score against any team and a defense that can force Cam Newton into mistakes.The Rams have a 98 percent chance at qualifying for the playoffs, and hope to take advantage of Seattle’s struggles to win the N.F.C. West. That should be enough to keep them just as motivated as New England, even as the Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives. Pick: Rams -5Sunday’s Other GamesThe Cardinals have struggled recently, but Kyler Murray has thrown for 22 touchdowns and rushed for 10. Credit…Norm Hall/Getty ImagesArizona Cardinals at Giants, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -2.5 | Total: 45Fresh off a game in which they manhandled the favored Seahawks on both sides of the ball, the Giants (5-7) are underdogs at home to the Cardinals (6-6), a team that isn’t as good as the Seahawks. So it appears oddsmakers have not exactly bought in on the recent improvements for Big Blue. The skepticism is most likely a result of the uncertain status of quarterback Daniel Jones. Coach Joe Judge has said there is a chance Jones will play, but he also said that last week. Colt McCoy deserves some credit for keeping the win streak going, but the Giants’ chances in this game come down to Jones’s availability. If he plays — and is close to 100 percent — this pick would most likely be reversed. Pick: Cardinals -2.5Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -3 | Total: 43.5Both of these teams are 5-7, but they are going in different directions. The Footballers have been steadily improving on both sides of the ball, and just pulled off a shocking upset of Pittsburgh. The 49ers have mostly survived in a season destroyed by injuries, but are coming off a huge letdown loss against Buffalo in which the backup quarterback Nick Mullens’s flaws were on full display. If this were truly a home game for San Francisco, it might have played to its favor, but with the 49ers relocated to Arizona, Washington has a good chance to keep winning. Pick: Footballers +3Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -7.5 | Total: 55The Lions (5-7) showed serious offensive improvement in the first game under their interim coach, Darrell Bevell, with the caveat that their come-from-behind victory came against the reeling Bears. Detroit may find offensive success, but probably not enough to matter as its overmatched defense tries to slow down the electric Packers (9-3), who are led by Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. There is always the chance that a heavily favored team will take the opportunity to slow things down and accept a smaller win, but the Packers have not been taking any games off offensively, and Rodgers is having one of the best seasons of his career — which is extremely high praise for a two-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award. Pick: Packers -7.5Trey Hendrickson of the Saints has 10.5 sacks this season. He could add to that total against Philadelphia’s patchwork offensive line.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressNew Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7 | Total: 44People who have Alvin Kamara on their fantasy team are undoubtedly eager for Drew Brees to return from injury. Kamara has just three catches for 7 yards over his last three games, but the Saints (10-2) seem extremely content with Taysom Hill under center until Brees gets to 100 percent. That’s understandable because last week’s win over Atlanta clinched a playoff spot for New Orleans, and this week’s game against the Eagles (3-8-1) doesn’t seem like much of a challenge. The Saints have a 66 percent chance of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye, according to The Upshot, but if they want to hold on for that honor, they will probably need Brees back for a Week 15 game against Kansas City. Pick: Saints -7Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 53The Titans (8-4) are much better than the Jaguars (1-11). You don’t really need to narrow down what Tennessee is better at. Football — the Titans are better at football. That being said, Jacksonville can hold its head up high after giving Minnesota a fight last week, and will come into this game hoping to slow running back Derrick Henry. That might just lead to them getting beaten on a few deep passes, but recent history suggests the Jaguars have a decent chance of covering the spread even if they have almost no chance of winning. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Jets at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Seahawks -13.5 | Total: 47How many times has a prominent N.F.L. coach been fired over one play? That’s what happened last week when Gregg Williams, the defensive coordinator for the Jets (0-12), dialed up a cover-zero play in the game’s final seconds when his team just needed to keep Las Vegas out of the end zone from 46 yards out. The Jets sent seven pass rushers, inexplicably left a spy behind the line of scrimmage in case Derek Carr decided to scramble for a 46-yard touchdown — pause for emphasis — and had just three defensive backs in coverage. Henry Ruggs III had a touchdown before Carr even released the ball.A conspiracy theorist might suggest that Williams or Coach Adam Gase, or both, were trying to lock in the No. 1 pick in the draft, but that falls apart when you consider it was exactly the type of galaxy brain decision the overly aggressive Williams is known for. His firing the next day seemed to confirm it was simply a brutal call, and nothing more than that.So now the Jets have four games to eke out a win in hopes of avoiding 0-16. Their quest begins on the road in Seattle as two-touchdown underdogs against the Seahawks (8-4). Seattle is struggling too much to buy in on such a large point spread, but the Seahawks have plenty of playoff-related motivation to win, so there shouldn’t be any surprises. Pick: Jets +13.5Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -3.5 | Total: 46.5A lot of teams pack things in when their record goes sideways, but the Broncos (4-8) and the Panthers (4-8) have kept fighting all season, making their opponents work hard to beat them. Imagining Denver’s defense if linebacker Von Miller were healthy, or Carolina’s offense with fewer injuries, makes it easy to be enthusiastic about both teams heading into next season. For now, they are both a little too flawed to matter, but there is every reason to believe a game between them should be entertaining. Pick: Panthers -3.5Atlanta’s Julio Jones was not able to haul in this pass, but he is so talented you probably thought he did. Credit…Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, via Associated PressAtlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -2.5 | Total: 49.5This game should have a playground feel to it, as both offenses are more than capable of airing the ball out, and neither defense puts up much resistance. Justin Herbert, a rookie, has the Chargers (3-9) ranked fourth in the N.F.L. in passing. The veteran Matt Ryan has the Falcons (4-8) ranked seventh in spite of some injuries to his receivers this season. It is a safe bet that a group of talented pass-catchers that includes Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (Los Angeles) and Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (Atlanta) will produce more than a few highlight-reel-worthy plays. While Los Angeles could end up struggling for a second consecutive week should left tackle Sam Tevi be out, this could easily come down to which team has the ball last. Pick: Chargers +2.5Houston Texans at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Texans -2 | Total: 44.5It had seemed like wide receiver Will Fuller V’s suspension would devastate Houston’s offense, but the Texans (4-8) were a fumbled snap away from pulling off a huge upset of the Colts last week thanks in large part to the emergence of Keke Coutee, who put up a career-best 141 yards receiving after coming into the day with 38 yards for the season. Houston showed enough to be favored on the road against a team with a superior record, though that probably has more to do with Chicago’s six-game losing streak than it does with the Texans’ offense.Of the 242 teams to start a season 5-1 from 1920 to 2019, only four ended up with a losing record: the 1926 Chicago Cardinals (5-6-1), the 1986 Atlanta Falcons (7-8-1), the 1995 St. Louis Rams (7-9) and the 2008 Buffalo Bills (7-9). The Bears (5-7) are well on their way to setting a new mark for futility in that group of fast-starting teams. Pick: Texans -2Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -3.5 | Total: 43.5Cincinnati has held its opponent to 20 or fewer points in each of the last three games, which is a fairly shocking turnaround for a defense that struggled greatly earlier in the season. Whether that is improvement or indifference from opponents who know they will beat the Bengals (2-9-1), regardless, is hard to say, but with quarterback Joe Burrow out for the season and Cincinnati one of four teams that is already eliminated from playoff contention, there is no real incentive to win. The Cowboys (3-9), meanwhile, have only a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Upshot, but have enough offense to give that recently improved Bengals defense a workout. Pick: Cowboys -3.5Monday’s MatchupWith Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Cleveland Browns are one of the few teams that can keep up in a run-heavy matchup against Baltimore.Credit…Ron Schwane/Associated PressBaltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Ravens -1 | Total: 44.5It should be a chilly night in Cleveland, and if a recent stretch of home games for the Browns (9-3) was any indication, the weather will lead to a far more conservative approach than the one the team employed to run up 38 first-half points against Tennessee last week. Since Lamar Jackson of the Ravens (7-5) has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games, this one should be decided on the ground. In a surprise compared with recent seasons, that would, at least on paper, favor Cleveland on both sides of the ball. But there is a nagging feeling that Baltimore is a quality team that has underperformed while the Browns have simply benefited from a light schedule. This game could help sort out if that is true. Pick: Ravens -1How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Bills -2.5, for example, means that Buffalo must beat Pittsburgh by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More