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    NFL Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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    Tom Brady faces Bill Belichick, the Rams and the Cardinals fight to stay undefeated, and the Browns’ pass rush travels to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Guess what? Tom Brady heads to Foxborough, Mass., to play the Patriots this weekend. You probably already knew that, though.Brady’s return to New England pits him against Coach Bill Belichick, with whom he won six Super Bowls over two decades. Brady is back in town with a freshly acquired Super Bowl ring and needing only 68 yards to break Drew Brees’s N.F.L. record for career passing yards. But there are other grudge matches around the N.F.L. in Week 4, including an N.F.C. West showdown between the unbeaten Rams and Cardinals and a scary Browns pass rush traveling to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 4, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 12-4All times Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s MatchupSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s other gamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s MatchupJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bengals -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Jaguars’ streak of allowing an average of 302.3 passing yards per game should continue this week against the Bengals (2-1) as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seem to have rediscovered their college chemistry in the pros.Burrow and Chase have connected for touchdown passes in each of their three games, including two last week in the 24-10 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Trevor Lawrence’s acclimation to the league has been rough; the rookie has thrown seven interceptions compared with only five touchdowns. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to score at will while the Jaguars (0-3) struggle to respond. Pick: Bengals -7.5Sunday’s Best GamesTampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 49After the pomp and circumstance around Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium as a visitor dies down, the game itself should be competitive. The Buccaneers (2-1) will have Antonio Brown back from the reserve/Covid list, but the team will be without slot receiver Scotty Miller, who has a toe injury, and potentially the pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, who sat out against the Los Angeles Rams with hand and shoulder injuries. The veteran free-agent cornerback Richard Sherman will join the team as its secondary battles injuries, though Coach Bruce Arians said he doubted Sherman would play on Sunday.Teams have not run effectively against Tampa Bay’s front seven and have instead exploited its defensive backs. The Bucs’ secondary has allowed opponents to throw for over 300 yards twice, including in a loss to the Rams last week, when Matthew Stafford tossed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Brady will be motivated to win, and the Bucs most likely will, but the secondary’s struggles give Mac Jones and the Patriots a chance to cover the spread. Pick: Patriots +6.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -6 | Total: 54.5Matthew Stafford’s connection with Cooper Kupp has made the receiver a fantasy football must-have. Kupp leads the N.F.L. in receiving yards (367) and touchdown receptions (5) and is tied at first for catches (25).Their chemistry will test the Cardinals’ defense, which has yet to face an offense as dynamic as the Rams’ (3-0). Though both teams are undefeated, the Cardinals (3-0) were saved from a loss to the Vikings in Week 2 by a shanked field-goal attempt and played down to the lowly Jaguars last week. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are unlikely to allow Kyler Murray to again put up video game numbers — he’s averaging 335 yards per game — and Rams Coach Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. He is likely to keep that streak alive. Pick: Rams -6Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week against the Bears, will hound Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins on Sunday.Kirk Irwin/Associated PressCleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -2 | Total: 53Kirk Cousins has yet to throw an interception this season, but the Browns (2-1) are the most complete defense the Vikings (1-2) will have seen.Cousins has thrown for more than 300 yards twice, including last week while running back Dalvin Cook was out with an ankle injury. Cook’s replacement, Alexander Mattison, rushed for 112 yards in his absence. It’s unclear whether Cook will play on Sunday, but if Cook returns or Mattison starts, the Browns’ defense will be up for the challenge. The unit ranks fifth in the league against the rush (201 yards allowed) and second in sacks (14). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense last week welcomed back receiver Odell Beckham Jr. from his knee injury. Those factors make betting with the Vikings tough, and the spread may honestly be too low. Pick: Browns -2Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: San Francisco -2.5 | Total: 52Hello, defense? Is anyone home? Pete Carroll must be asking his team that question after the Seahawks (1-2) allowed opponents to amass over 450 yards of offense in each of the last two games. No amount of Russell Wilson magic can save a game with those defensive performances.The 49ers (2-1) will be eager to play again after narrowly losing to the Packers on a last-second field goal. But they continue to battle injuries on both sides of the ball, with important players like tight end George Kittle (calf) and Josh Norman (lungs) listed as day-to-day. If Seattle can muster some sort of respectable defensive outing for pride’s sake, then the Seahawks could manage to be competitive and cover the spread. Pick: Seattle +2.5Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -1 | Total: 44Their undefeated record has come against winless opponents, so the Broncos (3-0) will try to get a statement win over the Ravens (2-1), who last week struggled before closing out the Lions. Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be without receiver K.J. Hamler, the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver, who tore his left anterior cruciate ligament in another big loss to the receiving corps after Jerry Jeudy was placed on injury reserve earlier in the season.After an overtime loss to open the season, the Ravens have closed out thrilling victories at home and on the road. They should be able to ride that momentum to give Denver its first loss. Pick: Ravens +1Sunday’s other gamesCarolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -4 | Total: 50Losing running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and cornerback Jaycee Horn (foot) should devastate the Panthers (3-0) and their chances of remaining undefeated. With McCaffrey out for “a few weeks,” according to Coach Matt Rhule, receiver D.J. Moore is the Panthers’ best offensive weapon. He is likely to be shadowed by the Cowboys’ top cornerback, Trevon Diggs, who has had an interception in every game this season.The Cowboys will keep up an aggressive offensive attack as the offensive coordinator Kellen Moore tries to exploit a secondary that hastily added C.J. Henderson via trade during the week. Until proven otherwise, expect the Panthers’ offense to backslide and struggle without McCaffrey as its workhorse. Pick: Cowboys -4Washington’s defense has underperformed so far this season. Led by defensive end Chase Young, it could bounce back against the Falcons.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressWashington Footballers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 48Oddsmakers are essentially predicting a tossup, largely because Washington has not played to its potential. The Footballers’ defense, in theory, should overpower the Falcons (1-2), as Atlanta has rushed for 100 yards only once and is still heavily relying on Matt Ryan’s arm at the ripe age of 36. But the Footballers (1-2) failed to sack Bills quarterback Josh Allen last week, and he dissected them for four touchdowns. Against a weaker offensive line, Washington should find more success. Pick: Footballers -1.5.Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -17 | Total: 48The line on this game is absurdly lopsided and rightfully so. The Bills’ defense generated three turnovers in each of the last two games. It is likely to feast on Davis Mills of the Texans (1-2), who threw for 168 yards and was sacked four times in his first N.F.L. start last week against Carolina. Mills is likely to do more to limit the production of Texans receiver Brandin Cooks than the Bills (2-1). Expect the score to get ugly quick. Pick: Bills -17Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -3 | Total: 42.5This could finally be the one.The Lions (0-3) have played competitively in first halves against playoff-caliber teams, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker had to convert a 66-yard field-goal attempt to rob Detroit of a win last week. That evasive W may come against the Bears (1-2), who posted 1 net passing yard (yes, you read that correctly) and allowed the rookie Justin Fields to take nine sacks against the Browns. Coach Matt Nagy said Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are all under consideration to start. The Lions could capitalize on that dysfunction. Pick: Lions +3Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -1.5 | Total: 43.5Injuries continue to plague the Colts (0-3), most recently with the All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson spraining his ankle and needing to be carted off the field last week. Coach Frank Reich did not rule out Nelson, but said his chances of playing were “not looking good.” Nelson’s availability would help against the Dolphins (1-2), who feature an aggressive and opportunistic defense. Miami’s backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, completed over 65 percent of his passes in an overtime loss to the Raiders in Week 3, showing he can manage the offense efficiently while Tua Tagovailoa’s ribs heal. If that responsible play continues and the defense generates pressure and turnovers, the Carson Wentz experiment in Indianapolis could remain winless. Pick: Dolphins -1.5Giants at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 43.5Giants receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton injured hamstrings in Week 3, potentially removing two of Daniel Jones’s favorite targets. He’ll need every asset the Giants (0-3) can offer to combat the inevitable deafening noise in the Superdome for the Saints’ first true home game of the season. The Saints (2-1), whose defense collected three interceptions last week against the Patriots, could produce a similar outing as Jones throws to receivers on the bottom of the depth chart. Pick: Saints -7.5Tennessee Titans at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 46Receiver A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury should not stop the Titans (2-1) from winning this game easily, given the team’s other formidable stars, running back Derrick Henry and receiver Julio Jones. The Jets, however, lack such options. The rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions to two touchdowns, and the Jets (0-3) have rushed for more than 100 yards only once. Even a developing defense like Tennessee’s should be able to contain the Jets’ attack. Pick: Titans -7.5Kansas City at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Kansas City -6 | Total: 54.5Kansas City (1-2) has had back-to-back losses only three times since 2018, making this uncommon territory for a perennial Super Bowl contender. They are likely to bounce back against the Eagles (1-2), who took a beating from Dallas on Monday and had a short week to prepare.Kansas City Coach Andy Reid reportedly returned to work Tuesday after being treated for dehydration after Sunday’s game. He will most likely preach ball security to his team, which committed six total turnovers in losses to the Ravens and the Chargers. If the Chiefs can fix those issues, their firepower should be too much for the Eagles’ young offense to respond. Pick: Kansas City -6Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 45.5The Steelers’ pedestrian offense has been a problem and now faces a Packers team (2-1) that is beginning to click. Pittsburgh’s quarterback weakness has been well documented, but Ben Roethlisberger ranks third in the N.F.L. in passing attempts in large part because the team has yet to rush for more than 75 yards in a game this season and its defense has given up first-quarter leads.The Steelers (1-2) are hopeful outside linebacker T.J. Watt (groin) will be available after missing last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers’s output should still far exceed that of the Steelers’ offense. Pick: Packers -6.5Monday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offensive line has allowed only five sacks of Justin Herbert this season, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), which could put it in a bind against defensive end Maxx Crosby and the Raiders.Kyusung Gong/Associated PressLas Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 52.5With Kansas City figuring out how to end its rut and the Broncos facing their first winning opponent, the Chargers or the Raiders will gain valuable ground in the A.F.C. West. The outcome will come down to whether the Chargers’ new-look offensive line can hold its own against the Raiders’ improved pass rush. The Chargers (2-1) have allowed only five sacks, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), including notable flags for illegal shifts in a loss to the Cowboys and a narrow win over the Chiefs.This one will have exceptional player matchups to watch — between the Chargers rookie tackle Rashawn Slater and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby, and Chargers safety Derwin James against Raiders tight end Darren Waller — but the Raiders (3-0) may have the edge if running back Josh Jacobs returns after missing two games with an ankle injury. Pick: Raiders +3.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Steelers -4.5, for example, means that Pittsburgh must beat Cincinnati by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      What We Learned From Week 3 of the N.F.L. Season

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      Justin Herbert and the Chargers want a Chiefs rivalry, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and the Steelers aren’t winning their bet on Ben Roethlisberger.The No. 1 takeaway from Week 3 in the N.F.L.? These new-look Los Angeles Chargers possess precisely what it takes to beat the Kansas City Chiefs: guts. An endless supply of guts.Chargers Coach Brandon Staley understands that you kick at your own peril against these Chiefs. Working the clock, too, is an ancient concept that leads to your demise. All conventional football wisdom flies out the window when it comes to Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and this juggernaut Chiefs offense. But it finally appears that a coach, a quarterback and a team in the A.F.C. West understand all that.Staley called pass plays often, early and late, and his quarterback, Justin Herbert, delivered 281 passing yards on 26-of-38 passing with four touchdowns and no interceptions. These Chargers proved they aren’t those Chargers of old with a signature win, stunning the Chiefs, 30-24, in Kansas City, Mo.“Any time you’re playing an offense that’s this historic,” Staley said at his postgame news conference, “when you’re playing against three players that are historic players in the game, you have to be aggressive. Not reckless. But you have to be aggressive.”Even with the Chargers taking a 14-point lead in the first half, it seemed there was more than enough time for Mahomes to conjure his magic. And that’s what happened in the third quarter as Mahomes threw two consecutive touchdown passes to give the Chiefs a 17-14 lead. The drama ramped up when the Chiefs scored on an 8-yard shovel pass to Mecole Hardman to take a 24-21 lead with 6 minutes 48 seconds to go.And the Chargers punched back. First, Herbert directed a 10-play, 69-yard drive to tie it at 24. That’s when, just one week after his costly turnover in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Mahomes had another backbreaking error. His third-and-8 overthrow of tight end Travis Kelce was intercepted by Alohi Gilman at the Chargers’ 41-yard line with a little less than two minutes left.The 23-year-old Herbert went back to work. On third-and-2 on that first set of downs, he fired a 15-yarder to Keenan Allen in stride.On fourth-and-4, with 48 seconds left, Staley bypassed a 47-yard field-goal attempt to win it. And when his rookie left tackle, Rashawn Slater, was flagged for a false start? Staley kept the offense on the field for fourth-and-9. Again, guts. Herbert uncorked another fastball to receiver Jalen Guyton and Chiefs cornerback DeAndre Baker was flagged for interference. Coach and quarterback were not done yet, either. With the clock ticking to 41 seconds — and the ball at Kansas City’s 20-yard line — most teams would settle for the field goal.That’s the safe call. That is, almost always, the right call.Not against the Chiefs.Herbert lobbed a perfect 16-yard pass to Mike Williams, who got out of bounds, then lofted a 4-yard score to Williams on first-and-10 with 32 seconds remaining. Even CBS analyst Tony Romo scolded the Chargers for leaving Mahomes too much time.The Chargers were proven correct, of course.The former league M.V.P. scrambled for 21 yards and his final Hail Mary fell short.So much could have gone wrong for the Chargers in going for that touchdown — but Staley was right to make the Chiefs go the length of the field. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-4 and then again on fourth-and-9 marks a new fearlessness in the face of the Chiefs’ magic. This came the week after Ravens Coach John Harbaugh played for the win against Kansas City in Week 2 and both coaches surely remember what went down in the A.F.C. playoffs a year ago.In the divisional round, down, 22-17, to the Chiefs, Browns Coach Kevin Stefanski opted to punt on fourth-and-9 from his own 32-yard line with 4:19 remaining. The Browns never touched the ball again.In the A.F.C. title game, Bills Coach Sean McDermott opted to kick a field goal from Kansas City’s 2-yard line at the end of the first half to cut Buffalo’s deficit to 21-12. And in the second half of that game, McDermott opted for another field goal on fourth down from the Chiefs’ 8-yard line. The Bills were blown out, 38-24.Both are perfectly fine coaches building long-term winners.Both made grave mistakes.There was zero need for Staley to play it safe. He has a quarterback capable of swapping haymakers with Mahomes.This rivalry is going to be a lot of fun.Josh Allen enjoyed a win over Washington. The Bills quarterback ran in a score and threw four touchdown passes, including one to tight end Dawson Knox, right, in the second quarter.Joshua Bessex/Getty ImagesJosh Allen is A-OK.Buffalonians are overcome with the same “We can’t have nice things” fear every year. Eventually, we reason, everything is bound to go wrong. So even after Josh Allen finished second in the M.V.P. Award voting last season and even after the Bills won their first division title since 1995, a feeling of dread lingers in Western New York.In a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, Allen looked like that raw rookie out of Wyoming.In a Week 2 rout of Miami, he didn’t look much better.Week 3? Allen eviscerated the Washington Football Team in a 43-21 win. With three touchdown passes to build a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, Allen looked like the pinpointing thrower the Bills thought worthy of a six-year, $258 million contract this off-season.He rolled right and slung a 28-yard pass to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the end zone to cap Buffalo’s first drive.Allen didn’t panic on the Bills’ third drive, when Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne brought pressure in the red zone. On third-and-4 from Washington’s 7-yard line, Allen shimmied to his right and hit running back Zack Moss in stride with a touchdown pass.When Jordan Poyer intercepted Taylor Heinicke on the ensuing Washington possession, giving the Bills a short field, Allen found tight end Dawson Knox’s back shoulder for a 14-yard score. The ball placement was perfect.Washington cut the Bills’ lead to 21-14 with quick scores in the second quarter, but Buffalo smothered the threat with offense, scoring on five of its final seven possessions. Allen was accurate as ever, throwing for 358 yards, four touchdowns and no picks with a 129.8 passer rating.Everything came so easy for the Bills’ passing game in 2020. Not since Jim Kelly in the early 1990s could locals expect something good to happen late in the fourth quarter instead of something bad.Short-circuiting for two weeks ushered back that feeling of impending doom. Sunday’s win brought on the realization that, as good as Stefon Diggs is, this Bills team is at its best when Allen is dealing to receivers — like Emmanuel Sanders, who hauled in two touchdown catches — all over the field.The Vikings aren’t dead yet.When everything’s perfect around quarterback Kirk Cousins, he’ll carve up a defense.Things aren’t perfect in Minnesota but Cousins looks more nimble than ever in the pocket, and more accurate than ever throwing to what is easily the most talent the most talent he’s been surrounded with on offense.As a result, these Minnesota Vikings (1-2) showed signs of life in a 30-17 win over the Seahawks (1-2).Through three games, Cousins has passed for 918 yards with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions and has been sacked only five times.Seattle had no answer for Minnesota’s offense — even with Dalvin Cook sidelined — and, this time, Russell Wilson couldn’t rally.Pressure didn’t seem to bother Cousins one bit. On arguably his best throw of the night — a third-and-5 conversion with eight minutes left — he faded backward just enough to avoid a blitzing, untouched linebacker and delivered a 15-yard pass to K.J. Osborn on a crossing route.It was the sort of throw we’ve rarely seen Cousins make in his career, but if he can beat the blitz like this? This Vikings offense will keep rolling.Ben Roethlisberger attempted 58 passes in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals despite playing with a pectoral injury.Gene J. Puskar/Associated PressThe Steelers may have made a bad bet.This was the massive risk the Pittsburgh Steelers took heading into 2021. They had no interest in a total rebuild and so they welcomed 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger back — on a pay cut — to a division where Lamar Jackson (24), Baker Mayfield (26) and Joe Burrow (24) are the other starters.With a lot of defense, and just enough of a ground game, Pittsburgh bet that a team that started 11-0 in 2020 could again rev into form as a Super Bowl contender. That may still turn out to be the case. Pittsburgh opened this 2021 season with a stunning win in Buffalo. But on Sunday, we learned this will be a very difficult bet to ride through another full season.The Cincinnati Bengals, the A.F.C. North’s forever doormat, waltzed into Heinz Field and dominated, winning at Pittsburgh, 24-10.Burrow, a second-year quarterback who is coming off a heinous knee injury last season, finished with a 122.9 passer rating on 14-for-18 passing for 172 yards. The Steelers’ talented secondary struggled keeping up with Burrow and his former Louisiana State teammate Ja’Marr Chase, who caught two of his three touchdown passes.Roethlisberger threw the ball a ridiculous 58 times, which is about 38 more times than Coach Mike Tomlin would probably like. Najee Harris, the running back drafted in the first round to change the ethos of this offense, has not been able to dominate fronts the way he did at Alabama and that remade Steelers line may have something to do with it.Pittsburgh got down early, was not able to play a clock-controlling run game and likely cannot help but wonder if Roethlisberger will be able to keep up in this division.A Bit About Sunday’s Other GamesRavens 19, Lions 17: Kickers matter. Justin Tucker’s game-winning, 66-yard field goal showed him as maybe the most clutch kicker of his generation. But let’s not forget what set up the longest kick in N.F.L. history: Lamar Jackson’s 36-yard strike to Sammy Watkins on fourth-and-19 from his own 16-yard line.Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19: It was not pretty. A 68-yard field-goal attempt by the Cardinals backfired, badly, in the form of a 109-yard touchdown return. But Arizona sure lacked ugly wins last season. Now that the Cardinals are 3-0 for the first time since 2015, they should make no apologies.Saints 28, Patriots 13: If Mac Jones needs to throw 51 times per game as he did Sunday, the Patriots aren’t going to win much. The play script got away from New England at home and, of course, Jameis Winston supplied the sort of touchdown pass only he can.Falcons 17, Giants 14: The good news: Saquon Barkley scored his first touchdown since 2019. The bad: everything else. Barkley managed 3.2 yards per carry against the hapless Falcons, Daniel Jones was average and the Giants are 0-3.Titans 25, Colts 16: Colts quarterback Carson Wentz gave it a go on two sprained ankles and played like a quarterback on two sprained ankles. He didn’t run the ball once, threw it away several times and the Titans rolled despite their three turnovers. Tennessee’s offense proved it is talented enough to win even when Derrick Henry and Julio Jones don’t score.Browns 26, Bears 6: Chicago fans wanted to see Justin Fields. They got Justin Fields. The former Ohio State star has a long road ahead — especially with this roster. Fields had only six completions the entire game, while getting sacked nine times — 4.5 times by Myles Garrett — and hit 15 times in all.Broncos 26, Jets 0: Until they play the Chargers or the Chiefs, it’s hard to get an accurate read on how good this Broncos team is, but there’s no denying the defense absolutely gives Denver a shot against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.Rams 34, Buccaneers 24: We knew this Sean McVay-Matthew Stafford combo had potential but not many predicted they’d be ready to down the Bucs defense this early in the season. Stafford completed 27 of 38 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns, no picks and was only sacked once.Raiders 31, Dolphins 28 (overtime): The Dolphins made it interesting but give Coach Jon Gruden and quarterback Derek Carr credit for finding a way to win another close game. Arguably no quarterback is playing better than Carr right now and the Raiders are 3-0.Packers 30, 49ers 28: The slightest mistake will cost a team against a determined Aaron Rodgers and, chances are, Jimmy Garoppolo will be thinking about snapping the ball with 12 seconds still on the play clock with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter all week. Sure, the 49ers scored that play but Rodgers had more than enough time — even with no timeouts left — to get the Packers into field goal range. Two passes to Davante Adams, a 25-yarder and a 17-yarder, was all it took. More

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      What We Learned From Week 2 of the N.F.L. Season

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      Bill Belichick sees a path toward making the Patriots a dynastic contender again, the Cowboys’ talent got a chance to shine, and Sam Darnold looks … happy.There were no shirtless pictures of Bill Belichick from Barbados gracing your screens this off-season.Belichick, the New England Patriots’ head coach, was far too busy to kick back last spring.As a drunken Tom Brady chucked the Vince Lombardi Trophy boat to boat, and as we all declared the quarterback the true driving force in New England all those years, Belichick, the N.F.L.’s Voldemort, plotted his vengeful return. Ego understandably ended this generation’s greatest dynasty. Honestly, it’s a miracle Brady and Belichick coexisted for two decades. Now, ego just may be transforming the Patriots into contenders again.After the Patriots’ first losing season since 2000, Belichick declared himself the fixer this off-season with a $232 million spending spree on his roster. The message was clear in his 47th year as an N.F.L. coach: Give me the horses, and I’ll win with a quarterback on the cheap.And while nobody should ever schedule a Super Bowl parade after a win over the calamity that is the Jets, Sunday served as a quiet warning to the rest of the N.F.L. that Belichick’s Patriots aren’t dead yet.New England’s defense suffocated Zach Wilson throughout a 25-6 win. Once again, Belichick turned a rookie quarterback into a pumpkin. At one point, Wilson had four interceptions and four completions, and you half-hoped Jets Coach Robert Saleh would put the poor player out of his misery by handing him a clipboard.Add it all up, and what we learned most in Week 2 is that there is absolutely a path for the Patriots to be the Patriots once again.Clearly, the Jets are zero threat to win any time soon.The Miami Dolphins (1-1) looked abysmal in a 35-0 home loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. With or without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, this isn’t an offense that’ll scare anyone any time soon. Here’s thinking their Week 1 upset in Foxborough, Mass., was a gift-wrapped fluke.And, yes, the Bills are the defending A.F.C. East champs. Yes, they blasted Miami and, yes, the defense looks phenomenal. The fact is, their franchise quarterback — the very rich Josh Allen — has not looked sharp. He completed only 51 percent of his passes.So what if the Mac Jones Experience in New England is as exciting as a trip to the dentist? We see now why this team was OK washing its hands of Cam Newton. Jones is not overwhelmed by the speed of the N.F.L., Dad bod or not, and that’s all Belichick asks with the roster he has assembled around the position. After paying up for edge rusher Matt Judon, tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, corner Jalen Mills, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and end Henry Anderson — Get all that? — Belichick knew he didn’t need a Superman at quarterback. He needed a distributor who wouldn’t turn the ball over.If that sounds very 1994, he frankly does not care.He let the Jets swing for the fences on a potential Mahomes Lite at No. 2 overall, perfectly content standing pat at No. 15 for a quarterback who completed 77.4 percent of his passes at Alabama. And unlike every other team that drafted a quarterback in April, the Jets did not sign anything resembling a threat or a veteran to challenge or support their rookie. This was Wilson’s gig from Day 1 and, on Sunday, you couldn’t help but wonder if the Jets should’ve found themselves a McCown of some sort.Wilson, the Brigham Young gunslinger, saw more ghosts than Sam Darnold ever dreamed of.After Interception No. 3 — a bizarre floater right to cornerback J.C. Jackson — Jones called an audible at the line and threw a beautiful rainbow to the Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers, in stride, for 24 yards.Such was the theme. This game served as a magnifying glass over two polar-opposite rookies. Wilson wants to play off-script like the three-time M.V.P. he idolized: Aaron Rodgers. His improvisation should at least make another losing season fun for the Jets. When a 315-pounder, Lawrence Guy, barreled in for a sack, Wilson hardly blinked. He juked. He escaped. He kept his eyes downfield before throwing incomplete.This style of play could prove to be special.This style could also get chewed up and spat out by the rest of the N.F.L.Interception No. 4 was even uglier, almost as if New England’s Devin McCourty was Wilson’s intended target.Meanwhile, Jones chugged along. He threw no touchdowns and no picks in completing 22 of 30 passes for 186 yards for the Patriots.Interesting, isn’t it? Through this off-season of quarterback madness, teams bent over backward for the chance at something special. San Francisco unloaded three first-rounders for someone from North Dakota State who played one football game in 2020 (Trey Lance); Green Bay was perfectly fine being publicly embarrassed by its disgruntled M.V.P. for six months (Rodgers); Indianapolis was willing to take on Carson Wentz’s massive contract; the L.A. Rams unloaded two firsts, a third and Jared Goff for a 33-year-old who has gone 74-90-1 in his career with zero playoff wins.The Bills handed Allen a six-year, $258 million contract.The Bears took a swing at every veteran possible before trading up for Justin Fields.And here’s Belichick again zagging as the rest of the league zigs. His defense is highly compensated and loaded. Judon will be worth every penny of his four-year, $56 million deal. Good luck finding a weakness anywhere. And this offense will only get better. Damien Harris atoned for his Week 1 fumble with arguably the best run of the season on Sunday.Harris broke seven tackles on the way to the end zone for a 26-yard touchdown.Beast Mode himself would be proud.OK, Brady’s title for Tampa Bay justifiably has us all questioning who meant more to those six N.F.L. titles in New England. Let’s not write those obituaries on the Patriots quite yet. If this equation leads to a winner, be it 2021 or 2022, nobody will question Belichick again. That’s surely on Belichick’s mind, too.For now, let’s just get the popcorn ready for Patriots-Bucs on Oct. 3.Defensive back Nasir Adderley of the Los Angeles Chargers broke up a pass intended for tight end Blake Jarwin of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesCowboys’ talent overcomes Chargers’ errors.The Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers of this generation are bound to throw wins away as the seconds wane. Both teams have assembled contenders but something, always something, is bound to go wrong.Sunday’s game, a 20-17 Dallas win, sure seemed to be heading in that direction for both teams.On two consecutive drives, the Chargers had touchdowns wiped out by penalties.First, a holding penalty nullified a Donald Parham Jr. score. (An interception soon followed.) Then, an illegal shift nullified a Jared Cook touchdown when Los Angeles had first-and-goal from the 2-yard line. (The Chargers settled for a field goal.) The Chargers (1-1) finished with 12 penalties for 99 yards.Then, it appeared to be the Cowboys’ turn. With 3 minutes 45 seconds left and the score tied, quarterback Dak Prescott drove Dallas into Los Angeles territory, and the Cowboys (1-1) grew lax. Coach Mike McCarthy, who has had clock management issues throughout his career, inexplicably let precious time bleed off the clock with the ball on the Chargers’ 38-yard line.Nonetheless, with four seconds left, Greg Zuerlein banged in a 56-yard field goal to give Dallas its first win of the season.This will need to be the theme for the Cowboys, a team that has suffered the same problems for 25 years now. In 2021, that talent may be enough to validate the machinations of the ownership, the coaching changes and the constant attention. This was a solid win. We know Prescott is one of the greats, but on Sunday, the Cowboys proved they could win with the run, too. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 180 rushing yards.Defensively, this isn’t going to be the historically awful unit we saw in 2020. The team’s new defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, has brought a scheme that is much better than the one Mike Nolan installed via Zoom a year ago, and Micah Parsons gives the Cowboys a playmaking pass rusher that opposing coordinators must now account for every week. A rookie out of Penn State, he was a presence all game with four quarterback hits and one sack.Next time, the Cowboys just may want to gain another 8 yards to be safe.Through his first two games with the Carolina Panthers, quarterback Sam Darnold has looked accurate, decisive and in rhythm. In other words, not like a Jets quarterback.Jacob Kupferman/Associated PressHey, Darnold.There is good news, Jets fans! Your new quarterback isn’t taking any advice from Adam Gase.The Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold — newly Gase-less — was the best quarterback on Sunday in lighting up the same New Orleans Saints defense that throttled Aaron Rodgers a week ago. He shredded the Saints for 305 yards on 26-of-38 passing with two touchdowns in a breezy 26-7 win. Thus far, the Panthers have gotten the most bang for their buck through that quarterback carousel. The marriage between Darnold and the offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, has been perfect two games in.Darnold isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism or his arm strength, but the reason a team drafted him over Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is finally on display. He’s decisive. He’s accurate. He gets into a rhythm. Brady’s offense isn’t wordy or complicated like Gase’s. It simply has an answer for every type of coverage you can throw at Carolina — and Darnold delivers. After failing to register 200 yards and two scores in any game last season, the former Jet accomplished exactly that in one half against New Orleans.Now, with the right coach and the right weapons, he has a realistic shot to be everything we expected in 2018. And then some.Sunday’s GamesRaiders 26, Steelers 17: Derek Carr has secretively been a top 10 quarterback for a while now and he made one of the best defenses in the NFL look silly. If this is the real Henry Ruggs III, the Raiders’ offense may be here to stay, too. He’s not dinking and dunking all game as you might’ve thought — Carr has developed incredible touch on his deep ball.Henry Ruggs III caught a 61-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr in the fourth quarter of the Raiders’ 26-17 win over the Steelers.Philip G. Pavely/USA Today Sports, via ReutersBears 20, Bengals 17: Nine quarterback hits, four sacks, three interceptions, one pick-6. Let’s pray the Bengals aren’t ruining Joe Burrow off that torn ACL.49ers 17, Eagles 11: Jalen Reagor juuust stepped out of bounds running his route before hauling in a deep touchdown that would’ve completely changed the complexion of this game. Instead, San Francisco recovered to grind out the win.Browns 31, Texas 21: Baker Mayfield shouldn’t try to lay anybody out after his next interception. After giving locals a scare with a shoulder injury — a familiar feeling in Cleveland — the quarterback bounced back to finish 19 of 21 for 213 yards with one rushing score and one passing score.Rams 27, Colts 24: It wasn’t pretty but this is also why Sean McVay traded for Matthew Stafford. The longtime Lions starter is used to rallying his offense in the fourth quarter, and he needed to on Sunday.Broncos 23, Jaguars 13: No Jerry Jeudy, no problem. This Denver offense hummed right along with Courtland Sutton (nine receptions for 159 yards) stepping up as Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to guy. Like Darnold in Carolina, Teddy B in Denver is looking like a steal.Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25: A year ago, this offense was in disarray. Tom Brady wanted one offense. Bruce Arians wanted another. Now? Tampa Bay is already scoring at will and that’s a scary thought. Ten different players accounted for 24 completions as Brady threw five touchdowns in all. Until further notice, the Bucs are the team to beat.Cardinals 34, Vikings 33: When the Vikings decided to re-up Kirk Cousins one year ago, it meant embracing a total rebuild on defense. Mike Zimmer’s entire unit underwent a youth movement for the team to simply get under the cap. And while the Covid-19 pandemic provided an understandable excuse for last year’s issues — and there were plenty — there’s no excuse for how bad Minnesota’s defense has looked through two games. Zimmer has work to do.Titans 33, Seahawks 30 (Overtime): Weird things happen in Seattle. Always. None of us should be surprised that the Titans erased a 24-9 lead in a hostile environment to win. As ugly as the first six quarters to their season were, this remains an offense overflowing with weapons and Derrick Henry isn’t showing the slightest signs of wear and tear. The workhorse back bashed Seattle for 182 yards on 35 carries with three touchdowns. More

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      NFL Bull Market Benefits T.J. Watt and Other Pass Rushers

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      N.F.L. teams are in an ever-escalating arms race to generate maximum pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt and other QB maulers benefit from the demand.If an N.F.L. team does not possess a quarterback of Tom Brady’s or Patrick Mahomes’s caliber, one of the best ways to remain competitive is to load up on pass rushers so its defense can sack opponents into submission. On the other hand, if a team is fortunate enough to employ an elite quarterback, its best chance to win the Super Bowl is to juice up its pass rush to neutralize his counterpart.Viewed from that perspective, the N.F.L. is not so much a quarterback-driven league as a quarterback disruption league, with teams caught in an ever-escalating arms race to generate as much pass pressure as possible.Last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers illustrated how valuable sack specialists have become by signing T.J. Watt to a four-year contract extension with a reported $80 million guaranteed. Only four players, all quarterbacks, currently earn more guaranteed money than Watt; his Steelers teammate Ben Roethlisberger, a future Hall of Famer, is not one of them.Watt rewarded the Steelers by sacking Josh Allen twice and forcing a fumble in Sunday’s 23-16 upset of the Buffalo Bills, a top Super Bowl contender. With Watt, Cameron Heyward and the newcomer Melvin Ingram spearheading Pittsburgh’s pass rush, the team was able to pressure Allen without blitzing, which prevented him from doing much scrambling or challenging the Steelers’ secondary with deep throws very often.Watt is the younger brother of J.J. Watt, the three-time defensive player of the year who signed with the Arizona Cardinals in March. The elder Watt had a quiet debut on Sunday, but his teammate, the two-time All-Pro Chandler Jones, sacked Ryan Tannehill five times and forced him to fumble twice, sparking a 38-13 upset of the Tennessee Titans. The Cardinals haven’t had a winning season since 2015, but the Watt-Jones tandem makes them credible playoff contenders.Pass rushers are best collected in bundles: A Jones or a Watt can be double-teamed if he is the defense’s only threat. But there are only so many double teams to go around. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers demonstrated this principle in Super Bowl LV when Shaquil Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea and Devin White overwhelmed the injury-ravaged Kansas City Chiefs offensive line, forcing three sacks, two interceptions and a long evening of desperate Mahomes scrambles in a 31-9 Buccaneers rout.The N.F.L. is often called a “copycat league,” but it is more of a “cut and paste the term paper from Wikipedia” league: Coaches and executives are not very subtle about their plagiarism. Once they saw the Buccaneers treat Mahomes like a tennis ball at a dog park, nearly every would-be contender sought to beef up its pass rush.The Bills drafted University of Miami defender Gregory Rousseau (15.5 sacks in his final college season) in the first round and Wake Forest defender Carlos “Boogie” Basham (20.5 collegiate sacks) in the second.The Titans lured the sack specialist Bud Dupree (eight sacks in an injury-shortened 2020 season) away from the Steelers, who kept pace by signing Ingram (49 career sacks for the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers).The New England Patriots gave $32 million guaranteed to Matt Judon, a two-time Pro Bowl defender for the Baltimore Ravens, so the Ravens signed the veteran Justin Houston (97.5 career sacks).The Cleveland Browns added Jadeveon Clowney to a defensive line that already had Myles Garrett, a fellow No. 1-overall draft pick.As for the Buccaneers, they pushed the envelope of salary cap economics to keep their veteran pass rushers off the free agent market, then drafted the University of Washington standout Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (eight sacks in his final collegiate season) in the first round. The Buccaneers sometimes lined up with six dangerous pass rushers staring down five Dallas Cowboys offensive linemen in the season opener on Thursday.Dak Prescott was not sacked, but he had an average time to throw of only 2.39 seconds in the 31-29 Cowboys loss, according to Next Gen Stats. It’s hard to out-duel Brady when forced to treat the football like a hot potato.The pass-rusher arms race is driven by supply and demand. A Brady or a Mahomes comes along only about once per generation, while top pass-rushers like the Watt brothers or Joey and Nick Bosa (stars for, respectively, the Chargers and the San Francisco 49ers) sometimes arrive two to a household. Each year’s quarterback class has few members with even the potential to develop into upper-echelon starters, but the college ranks are teeming with agile, ornery 250-plus-pound defenders ready to join the marauding hordes.The natural response to all of these barbarians at the gate is to build stronger walls. Brady rules his realm from behind an experienced and well-compensated offensive line. The Chiefs spent all the cap dollars and draft picks they could muster to ensure that Mahomes would never live through another experience like Super Bowl LV; their rebuilt offensive line passed its first stress test in a 33-29 victory against the Browns.And then there is Jameis Winston, who inherited both Drew Brees’s seasoned offensive line and a stout defense led by the pass rushers Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. Formerly an interception-prone disappointment, Winston miraculously blossomed into an efficient field general, while Aaron Rodgers was driven to frustration (only a short cab ride, in his case) in a 38-3 New Orleans Saints blowout of the Green Bay Packers.Old-school coaches like to claim that defense wins championships and that games are won and lost in the trenches. In reality, the days of Steel Curtains and Fearsome Foursomes are long behind us. Championships are generally won by elite quarterbacks, but pass pressure can make such quarterbacks mortal for a few hours.That’s what happened to Brady in the Super Bowls ending the 2007 and 2011 seasons, long before his Buccaneers did the same to Mahomes. If a team cannot win the quarterback lottery, building a vicious pass rush is an effective, affordable alternative.Although, based on Watt’s new contract, it may not be so affordable anymore. More

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      Which A.F.C. Teams Could Challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

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      The Kansas City Chiefs fortified their offensive line in pursuit of another championship, but the Bills, Browns and a bevy of first-year starters should shake up the order.With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, it’s fair to say that the conference once ruled by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning now belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.But last season’s churn lifted new contenders and stoked new rivalries that could define the next decade for the A.F.C. The Buffalo Bills reached the conference championship and the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game, both for the first time since 1994, and the two franchises are looking to build on that success. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will try to settle their disdain for each other without drawing newly emphasized taunting penalties this season.Though the Texans’ fate is wrapped up in Deshaun Watson’s future, rookie quarterbacks will have their say elsewhere as the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Jets’ Zach Wilson and Patriots’ Mac Jones make their debuts. Here’s a look at where the A.F.C. stands as the 2021 season kicks off.A.F.C. EastBuffalo Bills (13-3)Key additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt BreidaKey departures: WR John Brown, CB Josh NormanThe Bills came within one game of returning to the Super Bowl last season, so their priority was to lock in their best talent, starting with quarterback Josh Allen, who signed a six-year contract extension during training camp. To round out what were the N.F.L.’s second-best offense and a middling defense in 2020, the team also re-signed linebacker Matt Milano, guard Jon Feliciano and offensive tackle Daryl Williams, and picked up the fifth-year option on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and restocked the offensive and defensive lines early in the draft.Miami Dolphins (10-6)Key additions: WR Will Fuller V, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman, RB Malcolm BrownKey departures: LB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan FitzpatrickThe Dolphins were one of the most improved teams in the N.F.L. in 2020, bouncing back from a five-win 2019 season to narrowly miss a playoff berth. To get over the postseason hump, the team gave quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another deep threat in Fuller, to go with DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle, whom the Dolphins drafted sixth overall. Tagovailoa went 6-3 in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns last season, so there’s reason to expect improvement, but if he falters, Brissett’s one-year deal gives the Dolphins a veteran to step in to lead an offense that ranked 22nd in the league last year.New England Patriots (7-9)Key additions: QB Mac Jones, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, WR Nelson AgholorKey departures: QB Cam Newton, RB Sony Michel, S Patrick Chung, OG Joe ThuneyBill Belichick doesn’t like losing and after experiencing his first losing season since 2000, the year he took over in New England, the Patriots’ coach had a very busy off-season. Quarterback Cam Newton clearly was not the long-term solution to the hole left by Tom Brady, but the rookie Jones will face an expedited development after Newton’s sudden release at the end of training camp.Jones benefits from Belichick’s free agent spending in the off-season, when the coach used the league’s second-most cap space to lure in elite tight ends Smith and Henry, who figure to factor heavily in the offense. Defensive back Jalen Mills and linebacker Matthew Judon, who spent five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, round out the summer haul that should alert Buffalo and Miami that Belichick wants his division back.New York Jets (2-14)The Jets took quarterback Zach Wilson from B.Y.U. with the second overall pick in this year’s draft.Matt Ludtke/Associated PressKey additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Carl LawsonKey departures: LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Tarell Basham, WR Breshad PerrimanAfter a disastrous 2020 season, the Jets and their new head coach, Robert Saleh, need more than just one off-season to fill all the holes in their roster. They began the restock in April’s draft by selecting Wilson, who takes over what was the league’s worst offense, and targeting the secondary by taking five defensive backs, led by Jamien Sherwood of Auburn.Davis and Keelan Cole Sr. should provide receiver depth alongside Jamison Crowder, and running back Tevin Coleman, who arrives in free agency after playing in only eight games for the 49ers last season due to a knee injury, should give Wilson a release valve if he’s healthy.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. NorthBaltimore Ravens (11-5)Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, LT Alejandro VillanuevaKey departures: RB Mark Ingram II, LB Matthew Judon, DE Yannick NgakoueBy their standards, the Ravens had a down year in 2020 despite finishing 11-5 in one of the league’s most competitive divisions. Opponents found ways to slow the team’s running game and quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose season ended with a concussion sustained during the divisional round loss to the Buffalo Bills.Jackson enters his fourth season no doubt motivated to show why he deserves a big long-term contract extension and Watkins’ deep threat potential should help him make his case. He will also need to adjust to the absence of J.K. Dobbins, the lead running back who suffered a season-ending knee injury during a preseason game, though the Ravens have a capable backup in Gus Edwards.Team executives aiming for a deeper postseason run focused as usual on defense, re-signing linebackers Chris Board, Tyus Bowser and L.J. Fort, to go with a talented backfield that includes Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.Cornerback Marcus Peters and the Ravens celebrated a fourth-quarter interception in the A.F.C. wild card win over the Titans in January.Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesCincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)Key additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RT Riley Reiff, CB Eli Apple, CB Ricardo AllenKey departures: WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani BernardQuarterback Joe Burrow, the first overall draft pick in 2020, saw his disappointing rookie season end in Week 11 when he tore ligaments in his left knee on a brutal hit. Burrow is expected to be back for the season opener against Minnesota, behind an improved offensive line coached by Frank Pollack, who returns to Cincinnati after two seasons with the Jets.Though the team passed over Penei Sewell to reunite Burrow with Chase, who should again give his quarterback a reliable deep threat, it added Reiff to the line on a one-year deal and drafted Jackson Carman, who protected Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, in the second round. Those additions likely won’t be enough to stop the Browns, Ravens and Steelers from continuing to dominate the division, but they’ll suffice if they keep Burrow off the operating table.Cleveland Browns (11-5)Key additions: DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Greg Newsome, S John Johnson, LB Anthony WalkerKey departures: DT Sheldon RichardsonAfter ending the N.F.L.’s longest playoff drought with a wild card win over the vaunted Steelers, the Browns aren’t settling for a victory lap in the 2021 season. General Manger Andrew Berry continued revamping the roster this off-season, with a square aim on a defense that allowed too many clock-sucking drives in 2020.Berry brought in the top available defensive free agent in April, signing Clowney to a one-year deal to complement Myles Garrett in the pass rush, and added Johnson, perhaps the best available secondary player in free agency. Baker Mayfield, who cut down his turnovers in 2020, should benefit from having a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. to target.Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)Key additions: RB Najee Harris, DB Miles Killebrew, OT Joe HaegKey departures: RB James Conner, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Bud Dupree, T Alejandro VillanuevaThe Ben Roethlisberger era, now in its 18th season, persists. How it will end is the question. Big Ben, 39, seemed to toss off any questions about his rebuilt throwing arm by beginning last season on an 11-0 run. But Pittsburgh couldn’t complete a rally in the wild card round to beat the Browns and the season was dashed well shy of expectations.The Steelers re-signed one of Roethlisberger’s favorite receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and drafted in the first round running back Najee Harris, who broke Derrick Henry’s rushing touchdowns record at Alabama. But the Steelers lost two of their best offensive linemen and with Cleveland on the rise and Baltimore looking for a longer playoff run, the Steelers will have a hard time winning the A.F.C. North again.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. SouthHouston Texans (4-12)Key arrivals: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Rex Burkhead, OT Marcus Cannon, OL Justin BrittKey departures: WR Will Fuller V, C Nick Martin, DE J.J. WattThe 22 pending lawsuits against Deshaun Watson accusing him of sexual misconduct, which he has denied, loom over a franchise that chooses to pretend it’s not at all weird for him to take fourth-team reps at quarterback or serve as scout-team safety — or be with the team at all. Then again, not much makes sense about the Texans, whose front-office dysfunction and salary-cap mismanagement alienated their best players and precipitated a roster, reconstituted with free agents on short-term deals and coached by a first-timer in David Culley, that may luck its way into a victory or two. Or maybe not.Indianapolis Colts (11-5)Key arrivals: QB Carson Wentz, OT Eric Fisher, DT Antwaun Woods, DE Kwity PayeKey departures: QB Philip Rivers, QB Jacoby Brissett, OT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, LB Justin Houston, S Malik HookerNot many teams are constructed and coached as well as the Colts, who went about solving the quarterback quandary prompted by Philip Rivers’s retirement … by acquiring one of the worst in the N.F.L by many statistical measures, advanced or traditional. Carson Wentz has been reunited with Coach Frank Reich and Press Taylor, former mentors in Philadelphia, but is recovering from foot surgery that imperils his availability for Week 1. If Wentz can’t revive his career, a team brimming with talent — guard Quenton Nelson, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard all rank among the best in the league at their positions — can expect to struggle, especially with a brutal early schedule.Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)Key arrivals: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Carlos Hyde, DT Malcom Brown, CB Shaquill GriffinKey departures: WR Keelan ColeIn a college hotbed, owner Shahid Khan has entrusted a successful college coach, Urban Meyer, and the best college quarterback prospect in a decade to resuscitate one of the N.F.L.’s woebegone franchises. The Jaguars will be relevant. Whether they’ll be anything more than competitive depends on the progress of, duh, Lawrence, and their brigade of recent high draft picks, defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback C.J. Henderson and receiver Laviska Shenault. Alas, the Jaguars couldn’t schedule Florida A&M or Kent State to ease Meyer’s transition; they’ll have to settle for playing the Texans twice.Tennessee Titans (11-5)Key arrivals: WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autry, LB Bud Dupree, CB Caleb FarleyKey departures: WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Malcolm ButlerThe Titans were perhaps the most unbalanced team in the N.F.L. last season — elite offense, woeful defense — and hey, guess what? They very well might be again. Their off-season makeover yielded an inexperienced secondary and a thin group of pass-rushers headlined by Dupree, who is coming off knee surgery.It also netted Jones, who if he stays healthy adds another mismatch in the passing game to complement A.J. Brown. As assembled, the Titans are good enough to win this middling division again, but their chances would improve if they narrowed that gap between offense and defense even a bit.—Ben ShpigelA.F.C. WestDenver Broncos (5-11)Key Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Patrick Surtain II (1st round) CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle FullerKey Departures: RB Phillip Lindsay, CB A.J. Bouye, TE Nick Vannett, RT Ja’Wuan JamesThe Broncos spent much of training camp evaluating a quarterback battle between a journeyman and a young, inconsistent passer.Teddy Bridgewater, discarded by the Carolina Panthers in a trade, wrenched the starting job away from Drew Lock, who led the league in interceptions thrown in 2020. Bridgewater’s risk-averse play should be a boon to receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Star linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that kept him out last season, holding down a strong defense that got better for drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II and adding the veteran Fuller in free agency.Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown, OG Joe Thuney, DT Jarran Reed, OL Austin BlytheKey Departures: OT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, OT Mitchell SchwartzThe Chiefs’ depleted offensive line was exposed in last year’s playoffs, first when Mahomes took on a hit by the Browns in the divisional round, and definitively in the Super Bowl, when the Buccaneers sacked Mahomes twice and hit him nine times. General manager Brett Veach addressed the deficiency in the off-season by trading for Brown and drafting 6-foot-5 center Creed Humphrey in the second round. The new-look offensive line should give Mahomes the time in the pocket to find his speedy playmakers instead of relying on him to be one.Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)Key Additions: DL Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, OL Alex LeatherwoodKey Departures: WR Nelson Agholor, DE Takkarist McKinley, RB Devontae BookerTight end Darren Waller became the Raiders’ best offensive weapon last season, catching 107 passes and posting over 1,000 receiving yards. Opponents noticed. This season, defenses focused on stopping Waller should be kept honest by running back Josh Jacobs, who earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2020, and deep threat receiver Henry Ruggs III.The Raiders’ top-10 offense was weighed down by a defense that ranked 30th in the N.F.L. and gave up 389 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was brought in along with Ngakoue, who should compliment Maxx Crosby on the defensive line. That unit could hold control over how hot Coach Jon Gruden’s seat gets.Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)After missing all of the 2020 season and 11 games in 2019, Chargers safety Derwin James, right, is back to his pass-stealing ways in Los Angeles.Alex Gallardo/Associated PressKey Additions: C Corey Linsley, OT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, OT Rashawn SlaterKey Departures: TE Hunter Henry, CB Casey Hayward, DE Melvin IngramHad a team physician not accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, Justin Herbert may never have played last season. But he did, and his stellar performance — throwing for over 4,000 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, earned him the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Herbert’s rise was the bright spot in a season in which the Chargers clumsily lost seven games by one score and fired Coach Anthony Lynn.His replacement, Brandon Staley, takes over a revamped offensive line and gets back safety Derwin James, an All-Pro in 2018, who missed 11 games after fracturing his right foot in 2019 and sat out the 2020 season with a torn meniscus. With James healthy, a wild-card berth isn’t out of the question.—Emmanuel Morgan More

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      A Historical Guide to Renaming the Washington Football Team

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      N.F.L. team names have followed trends in certain eras, a practice that could give the Washington franchise more options for its rebranding.The Washington Football Team ignited renewed speculation about its future nickname this week by releasing a video about its rebranding that cited eight possible names. While Jason Wright, the team’s president, eventually said other candidates were also being considered, that didn’t stop every fan within 3,000 miles of the capital from weighing in on the pros and cons of each suggestion.The list of eight included military-related names like Armada, Brigade, Commanders and Defenders; names that maintained, perhaps uncomfortably, the “red” from the team’s previous name, RedHogs and RedWolves; as well as the more staid offerings like Presidents and the current name, Football Team.The popularity of certain kinds of professional team nicknames have waxed and waned over the years. Perhaps a look at history can offer some additional suggestions for Washington.1922: Anything goes.When the National Football League was founded under that name in 1922, its teams’ nicknames were all over the place.Some names would have been timeless in any era: the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. Some sound a little quaint to today’s ears: the Buffalo All-Americans and the Evansville (Ill.) Crimson Giants.And a few were just weird. The Columbus Panhandles? (It’s related to West Virginia’s little panhandle.) The Louisville Brecks? (It was short for Breckenridge, although that doesn’t clear much up.) The Dayton Triangles? Really?Suggestions from history: The Washington Circles. The Washington Pentagons.1930s: Let’s name two.The Cleveland Indians played in the N.F.L. in 1931, and so did the Brooklyn Dodgers. In 1933, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds joined up. Yes, there were some more uncommon names, too (uh, the Staten Island Stapletons played from 1929 to 1932), but piggybacking on the success of baseball seemed to be a key business model for the nascent football league.Suggestions from history: The Washington Nationals. The Washington Senators.1940s: Wartime portmanteaus take hold.Shortages of manpower and financial concerns led several teams to merge during World War II. The Steelers and Eagles in 1943 unofficially became the Steagles. Then the next season the Steelers tried a merger with the Chicago Cardinals, creating a team that became known as “Card-Pitt.” Or “Carpets” to those mean folks who noticed they finished 0-10.Suggestions from history: The Baltimore-Washington RaveTeam. The Washington-Dallas TeamBoys.Early 1960s: The A.F.L. swaggers in.The new American Football League, which eventually merged with the N.F.L., had a mix of nicknames, but quite a few had a conquering feel: Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Titans. The N.F.L. added a couple of macho teams of its own in this era: the Cowboys and the Vikings.Suggestions from history: The Washington Firefighters. The Washington BarBrawlers.Late 1960s: A Grass menagerie arises.It was the era of the animal, as the Falcons, Dolphins and Bengals joined the leagues (with the Seahawks coming aboard in 1976).Suggestions from history: The Washington Pandas. The Washington Pigeons.The 1980s: Old names head west.The pace of new teams being added to the N.F.L. slowed a decade later, but franchises looking for sweeter stadium deals were happy to move to new cities, while keeping their nicknames. The Raiders, Colts, Cardinals and Rams all did it. (The Browns did change their name to the Ravens — another animal — when they moved to Baltimore in 1996.)Suggestions from history: The Memphis Football Team. The San Antonio Football Team.What’s next?There has only been one new N.F.L. nickname adopted in recent times, the rather bland Houston Texans in 2002. That is, until Washington made the unconventional and temporary selection of Football Team last year.So without a lot of precedent, Washington has an opportunity to start a new era in N.F.L. team naming. Will a choice like Armada launch a new era of naval names? Will selecting the moniker Presidents result in a surge of patriotic nicknames?With the field still open, and the team trying to stretch the drama, we don’t know which way Washington will go. Well, maybe we know this: Don’t expect the Washington Brecks. More

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      Some Dramatic Quarterback Successions Start at the N.F.L. Draft

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      If the draft last week revealed anything, it was that there’s no tactful way to replace a healthy starting quarterback.Replacing a franchise quarterback is not as simple as drafting his successor. It’s more like selecting the heir to the throne of some ancient empire: full of drama, intrigue, careful diplomacy and the constant threat of open rebellion.The teams that chose possible successors to established quarterbacks in the 2021 N.F.L. draft must all proceed with some degree of caution, knowing that one false move might plunge their kingdoms into a dark age.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted a potential heir to 43-year-old Tom Brady in Kyle Trask of the University of Florida with the final pick of the second round. Brady does not like to be surrounded by reminders of his mortality, but Trask’s credentials are unassuming enough that the Buccaneers can pass him off as a lowly intern for the next few months, sparing him from banishment to the labyrinth beneath the TB12 compound.The New England Patriots wisely waited until Brady was gone for a year before drafting his likely successor: the 15th overall pick, Mac Jones, who led Alabama to the national championship last season. Cam Newton has helmed the Patriots in the interim like a distant noble cousin (the 11th Earl of Ascots) retrieved from the hinterlands to keep the throne warm.The Minnesota Vikings drafted Kellen Mond of Texas A&M as a possible replacement for Kirk Cousins with the second pick of the third round. Cousins hasn’t faced a challenger for his starting job for many years. Instead of trying to replace Cousins, employers typically cope with his brand of ordinary but overpriced play by paying him more and lowering their expectations.General Manager Rick Spielman played down Mond’s role as a challenger to Cousins after the selection. Quarterback succession ceremonies often begin with this type of ritualized, ego-soothing denial of the obvious.The Houston Texans used a third-round pick (their highest selection in the draft) on Stanford’s Davis Mills, a possible replacement for Deshaun Watson, who faces 22 civil suits alleging lewd and coercive sexual behavior, two of which also accuse him of sexual assault. He has denied the claims. Before those suits were filed, Watson was seeking a trade from the mismanaged, scuffling Texans, who signed Tyrod Taylor in case Watson held out.Under those tumultuous circumstances, Mills faces more of a potential starting crisis than a starting opportunity.Terrible teams usually don’t have to worry about delicate transfers of power. The top two picks in the draft, Trevor Lawrence of Clemson and Zach Wilson of Brigham Young are now the unquestioned starting quarterbacks of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Jets. Trey Lance (North Dakota State) must only supplant Jimmy Garoppolo, who likely updated his LinkedIn profile in March when the San Francisco 49ers traded two future first-round picks for the third overall pick. The Chicago Bears selected Justin Fields of Ohio State with the 11th pick, leaving the journeymen Andy Dalton and Nick Foles to arm wrestle for the role of overpaid mentor.For a successful franchise, however, a bungled succession plan can result in disaster. The Green Bay Packers prematurely drafted Utah State’s Jordan Love as an eventual heir to Aaron Rodgers last year, when Rodgers expected that they would add a much-needed wide receiver. The rift between Rodgers, who is likely to be a future Hall of Famer, and the organization now appears irreconcilable. The Packers appear unwilling to trade Rodgers, though they did draft Clemson receiver Amari Rodgers in the third round, which seems like a belated apology: “See, we got you what you wanted, and we even had it engraved!”Aaron Rodgers’s situation illustrates why so many teams procrastinate instead of seeking an heir apparent for a distinguished veteran. The New Orleans Saints are in deep denial about Drew Brees’s recent retirement; the team’s fourth-round pick, Ian Book of Notre Dame, is less of a successor than a nonthreatening option who’ll make the dueling underqualified claimants Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston look good by comparison.Instead of a challenger to Matt Ryan, 35, the Atlanta Falcons drafted Florida tight end Kyle Pitts in their latest effort to resuscitate a Super Bowl opportunity that died on Feb. 5, 2017. The Pittsburgh Steelers are waiting for Ben Roethlisberger to crash before having the talk about surrendering his driver’s license.Even the most successful succession plans are rarely smooth: Joe Montana and Steve Young clashed for six years in San Francisco, and Rodgers learned the art of epic melodrama at the feet of Brett Favre. Most quarterback successions are more like Cousins-to-Mond than Montana-to-Young: not worth the hassle until necessary.The Giants were lucky when the Eli Manning-to-Daniel Jones transition was relatively smooth — at least in public — in 2019. With the rites of succession behind them, the Giants concentrated on adding potential impact players like wide receiver Kadarius Toney, defensive end Azeez Ojulari and cornerback Aaron Robinson instead in this year’s draft.And if those newcomers cannot help the Giants return to the playoffs, the team will start searching for Jones’s replacement next year. More

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      What to Watch for in Sunday’s N.F.L. Wild-Card Games

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesVaccination StrategiesVaccine InformationF.A.Q.TimelineAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat to Watch for in Sunday’s N.F.L. Wild-Card GamesLamar Jackson will try to get over the playoff hump against the Titans, the Saints will try to avoid any surprises, and the Steelers and the Browns circle each other for the third time this season.Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson will try to win his first playoff game in his third try when the Ravens face the Titans in a rematch of last year’s divisional-round contest.Credit…Bryan Woolston/Associated PressJan. 10, 2021, 8:00 a.m. ETSunday brings another day chock-full of N.F.L. playoff football, with three games kicking off roughly 14 hours after the last of Saturday’s trio of postseason contests ended. Distinct, pitched rivalries heighten the stakes of two of the matchups — Baltimore at Tennessee at 1:05 p.m. Eastern, and Cleveland at Pittsburgh at 8:15 p.m. — but the middle game, which has Chicago visiting New Orleans at 4:40 p.m., is seen as an apparent mismatch since it includes the erratic Bears, one of only two teams without winning records that have barged into the playoffs.Lamar Jackson will try to finally win a playoff game.Near the midpoint of the 2018 season, Lamar Jackson was named Baltimore’s starting quarterback and took the N.F.L. by storm, running the football (79.4 rushing yards per game in seven starts, six of which were victories) as well as he threw it (he averaged 159 passing yards per game during that stretch). Viewed as a team that nobody in the postseason wanted to play, the Ravens were instead upset at home by the Los Angeles Chargers in their opening playoff game, in which Jackson looked out of sorts and ruined two critical drives with an interception and a fumble.Last season, Jackson was the league’s most valuable player, and the Ravens were the top playoff seed in the A.F.C. But Baltimore was routed at home by the Titans as Jackson again struggled with two interceptions and a lost fumble.This season, the Ravens (11-5), a fifth seed, have looked unbeatable in their last five games, when they averaged 37.2 points per game. Jackson has regained his usual regular-season form. But another playoff loss, especially against a Tennessee (11-5) defense that ranked among the N.F.L.’s worst against the run and the pass, will amplify the spotlight on Jackson’s winless playoff record.In the Titans’ playoff victory over the Ravens last season, running back Derrick Henry rushed for 195 yards on 30 carries. It will be fascinating to see if Baltimore Coach John Harbaugh and his proud, physical defense have come up with an answer for stopping Henry — as they must. When the teams met in late November this season, Henry was kept under 100 rushing yards as the fourth quarter ended in a tie, but he took over in overtime, winning the game with a bulldozing 29-yard touchdown dash through most of the Ravens defense.The Saints hope for a miracle-less postseason.The bad mojo haunting the Saints in the last three postseasons has been well-documented. If Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (8-8) were able to add to the franchise’s sense of playoff doom, it would be a sign that something really odd was afoot in New Orleans. The Bears backed into the playoffs as the N.F.C.’s seventh and last seed on a tiebreaker when matched against the equally inconsistent Arizona Cardinals (8-8). The Saints, winners of 11 of their last 13 games, are the second seed, trailing only the Green Bay Packers.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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      A ‘Super’ N.F.L. Playoff Weekend Is Missing Something. Can You Guess What?

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesVaccination StrategiesVaccine InformationF.A.Q.TimelineAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn Pro FootballA ‘Super’ N.F.L. Playoff Weekend Is Missing Something. Can You Guess What?No, not Tom Brady. He made it. But the pandemic is forcing teams to keep large numbers of fans away.A limited number of fans, socially distanced, at a Tampa Bay Buccaneers game this season.Credit…Jason Behnken/Associated PressJan. 9, 2021, 7:30 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. playoffs are one of the biggest sporting obsessions in the United States, typically among the most-watched television programming of the year.And this year the postseason will get an extra boost because the N.F.L. has added two playoff games, for a total of six games over Saturday and Sunday in what the league is calling “Super Wild Card Weekend.”Yet the monthlong postseason party — which will include perennial contenders like the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks as well as rarer participants like the Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns — will be drained of some of the color, sound and pomp as the league navigates the coronavirus pandemic.Most games will be played with no or very few fans in the seats, sapping some of the drama — not to mention live crowd noise — from the football festivities. There will be only a few hundred, not thousands of, Terrible Towels waved in Pittsburgh. There won’t be any “12s,” as Seahawks supporters are known, shaking the rafters in Seattle, because spectators will be barred. Just 3,000 Saints fans will be yelling “Who dat?” in the cavernous Superdome.“I hate it for the fans,” Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger told reporters on Wednesday. “I think about what Heinz Field would be like Sunday night. I hate it for the Steelers, for the energy and excitement that it brings. But once again, that is what we are doing. That is what we are living in.”The Bills, who will kick off the bonanza of games on Saturday afternoon at home against the Indianapolis Colts, needed intervention from Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York and an elaborate testing program to be able to host a few thousand fans for the first time this season.Viewers at home have become accustomed to seeing stadiums filled with cardboard cutouts and to hearing recorded cheers. But those make a poor substitute during the playoffs, when sold-out stadiums help add excitement for a television audience expanded by a surge in casual viewers.“Football this time of year is part of Americana, our town squares on Sundays and Saturdays and now even Wednesday,” said Andy Dolich, who ran business operations for four professional teams, including the San Francisco 49ers. “You have all sorts of digital devices and sound being pumped in, but there’s nothing like seeing fans sitting shoulder to shoulder with beer and brats being dumped in their laps.”The empty seats will hit Browns fans the hardest, Dolich said. After they ended the N.F.L.’s longest playoff drought last Sunday, their fans will not be able to attend the game in Pittsburgh. The Steelers expect to have fewer than 1,000 fans on hand on Sunday, limiting attendance to friends and relatives of players and staff members.With strict limits on attendance this weekend, there will be far fewer Terrible Towels at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field.Credit…Justin K. Aller/Getty Images“It’s like Edmund Hillary getting to the top of Everest and not being able to tell anybody,” he said.The buzz-less stadiums have become one of the defining features of the league’s 2020 campaign, along with hundreds of positive coronavirus tests among players, coaches and staff members that forced games to be rescheduled, including one that was ultimately played on a Wednesday afternoon. Thirteen teams had no fans in attendance this season, and several other teams had fans at just a few games before health authorities banned large gatherings as the number of virus cases spiked this winter.The league drew a combined 1.2 million fans this year, less than 10 percent of last season’s number. The league’s 32 teams this season lost roughly $4 billion in sales of tickets, luxury boxes, food, parking and sponsorships. Even television viewership, the lifeblood of the league, fell 7 percent during the regular season, the first decline since 2017, when a substantial number of players knelt during the playing of the national anthem to protest racial and social injustice.The Super Bowl will be muted, too. To limit potential exposure to the virus, the teams will arrive only a day or two before the game. Many of the league’s biggest sponsors, who often host hundreds of their most important clients at the Super Bowl, will not travel to Tampa, Fla., for festivities before the game. The N.F.L. might fill just 20 percent of the seats at Raymond James Stadium, including vaccinated emergency medical workers invited by the league.Still, some fans will get a chance to see their teams play in person for the first time this season. The Bills will have about 6,000 fans this weekend, and the Packers said they would host about the same number of fans at their first home game, in the divisional round next weekend. The Tennessee Titans will have about 14,500 fans, or 21 percent of their capacity, at their home game; that number is in line with the attendance at many of their regular season games.In the future, though, when fans look back at pictures of this year’s playoff games, the empty seats are sure to stand out as much as, if not more than, the plays.“Intellectually, people will say it was remarkable that there were games, but that they were lacking the passion, which is a key element of live sports,” said Phil de Picciotto, the president of Octagon Sports, a talent agency and event management company. “It will feel lacking. But the alternative was to do nothing.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More