Three areas Carabao Cup final will be won and lost including Liverpool’s makeshift front-three & Sterling Chelsea’s key
CHELSEA and Liverpool go head to head this weekend in a battle for the season’s first piece of silverware.Both teams will take to the hallowed turf of Wembley with very different motivations to get over the line.
Liverpool and Chelsea come to blows at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final this weekendCredit: Reuters
Both sides are motivated to get their hands on the first piece of silverware of the seasonCredit: Getty
For Chelsea the final represents a chance for a first trophy of their new era under Todd Boehly and an opportunity to alleviate some pressure off the shoulders of Mauricio Pochettino.
While Liverpool are doing everything in their power to give Jurgen Klopp the send off he deserves after the German announced he would be stepping down at the end of the season.
Alongside their differing motivations, both side come into the game with stark differences in their form too.
The Blues are languishing in mid-table in what has been an uninspiring season.
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Although they will be buoyed by a creditable point against Manchester City on Saturday.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are flying high at the top of the Premier League table having lost just one of their last 15 games in all competitions.
But the Reds have a significant injury list that will hugely impact the team they are able to field this Sunday against Chelsea.
In this article we highlight three key tactical areas that could decide who lifts the league cup aloft this weekend.
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What will Liverpool’s front three look like?
Liverpool’s 4-1 win away to Brentford came at a high price with injuries to Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota and Mohamed Salah.
The trio join a crowded medical room at Anfield which includes the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dominik Szoboszlai – stretching Liverpool’s squad depth to the limit this weekend.
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There is also a slight doubt surrounding the fitness of their maverick Uruguayan Darwin Nunez, although he is expected to be fit.
While all five players have had extremely strong seasons so far, it is probably the loss of Jota and Salah that will have the biggest impact on Liverpool’s potential lineup.
Diogo Jota, in particular, was having an superb start to 2024 before suffering a significant injury against Brentford.
His ability to play as a no.9 for Liverpool but to drop back towards the midfield and link the play is similar to the way that Roberto Firmino used to play that role for the Reds.
Jota dropping out of the attack and towards the player in possession allows Cody Gakpo to move inside and leave Arsenal’s defensive line poorly positioned – One through pass is enough to release Gakpo through on goal
The extent of Jota’s injury means we already know that the 27-year-old will definitely miss the match, although Salah may still be passed fit for the final.
Having Darwin Nunez play as the no.9 for Liverpool, however, gives the Merseyside outfit a completely different look compared to Jota.
The 24-year-old is very much a striker that wants to remain as the focal point of the Liverpool attack as he plays on the last defender and looks to use his pace to run behind and attack space.
This means that there is less space centrally for Liverpool’s wide players to attack into.
With that said we are still likely to see the two wide forwards, expected to be Luis Diaz and one of Salah or Gakpo, play in a more narrow shape as they come inside to play in the channels at the very least.
Any of the options in the wide attacking spaces for the Reds will be volume dribblers who want to take control of the ball and attack the opposition area aggressively.
The difference is that Nunez will want to be constantly positioned as the main striker in the 4-3-3.
The reality when facing a team like Liverpool is that any front three that they put on the field will be extremely dangerous.
Here, you can see the kind of positions that Diaz will want to take up in the channel with Andy Robertson wide on the left – in these areas Diaz can attack the opposition by driving through any space that their defenders leave between them
Chelsea need to use Raheem Sterling in transition
Chelsea impressed during their 1-1 draw with treble winners Man City last weekend.
One of the main reasons for their result was the performance of Raheem Sterling – who netted Chelsea’s only goal and provided a consistent threat from the left-wing.
City, as expected, dominated possession throughout the game but they were vulnerable on the counter attack with Sterling’s movement key for Chelsea in taking advantage of their dominance.
We would expect to see a similar story on Sunday as Liverpool are likely to have the lion share of the ball against the Blues.
When Jurgen Klopp’s team attack they typically commit a lot of players into advanced positions as they look to overload the opposition.
This will, in turn, create opportunities for Chelsea to quickly attack in moments of transition and the pace and movement of Sterling will once again be key in their taking advantage of this.
Here Man City have pushed a lot of players forward into the Chelsea half allowing Chelsea to play quickly in transition and attack into space – the first pass releases Nicolas Jackson but it’s the movement and direct running from Sterling that really stretches the attack
Liverpool will likely continue with Conor Bradley at right-back in the absence of Alexander-Arnold.
As impressive as the 20-year-old has been since stepping into the first-team, he is still inexperienced defensively against top wingers.
Sterling will deliberately pull out wide to attack the space that Bradley leaves behind himself when he pushes forward to support the attacking movement.
While Sterling will occasionally drop in to fill gaps and defend against the ball he will typically remain relatively high so that he can transition quickly to attack space.
This will make it difficult for the right-sided central defender for Liverpool who will have to choose whether to retain his position or move outside to cover the threat of Sterling if he is left in space.
Sterling’s movement will likely be paired with a more direct approach in transition from the Chelsea midfield in order to put pressure on the Liverpool defence early.
When Chelsea attack it is the movement and direct running of Sterling that creates the chance – as the initial pass is played to the near side to release Gusto from right-back the City defence has been caught narrow
Who will win the midfield battle
Both sides are likely to line up for this match in a 4-3-3, although Chelsea’s third midfielder may make it look like a 4-2-3-1 on paper.
As always at the top level the battle for dominance in the midfield area will likely be key.
Szoboszlai and Jones are huge losses for Liverpool’s midfield and they will have their work cut out against a Chelsea midfield with Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caiciedo and Conor Gallagher that is starting to look more settled.
With the likes of Fernandez and Gallagher in particular we are starting to see a more direct and aggressive approach from Chelsea both in and out of possession from the midfield.
Chelsea have become more direct against teams who have the edge in terms of possession – here, we see Gallagher immediately look for a longer pass to release the wide runner
One of the keys for the match is likely to be the presence of Wataru Endo at the base of the Liverpool midfield.
Endo has effectively replaced Fabinho in the Liverpool structure and the Japanese international has gone from strength to strength this season.
He breaks up opposition attacks and is calm and composed in possession.
With the likes of Alexis MacAllister and, probably, Ryan Gravenberch playing further forward for Liverpool we will see Endo having to act as the link between the defence and attack for Liverpool.
The midfield battle will likely be relatively tight given the players that Liverpool have missing through injury but we still expect Liverpool to have the edge.
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This shows the importance of Endo as he sits in front of the two central defenders and guards against transitions – In possession he draws pressure towards him before slipping the ball past the pressing player
Conclusion
Cup finals are notoriously difficult to predict as league form often goes out the window.
The unpredictability is heightened further here with the sheer volume of players who are missing through injury for Liverpool. More
