Tennessee Titans

Subterms

    More stories

    • 113 Shares99 Views

      in Football

      NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Wild-Card Round

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Wild-Card RoundAn expanded first round is highlighted by a few tough matchups, including Colts-Bills and Ravens-Titans.Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens has lost both of his career starts against the Tennessee Titans — once in last year’s playoffs and again in Week 11 of this season. Jackson is hoping to find playoff success after two seasons ended in disappointment.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressJan. 7, 2021, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. got through all 256 games, no matter how tenuous, completing the regular season. Now, an expanded field of 14 teams enters the playoffs with a chance at qualifying for Super Bowl LV, which is scheduled to be held on Feb. 7 in Tampa, Fla. The format, conceived to balance out the pandemic-related issues of the season, resulted in six games slotted this weekend, rather than the usual four. It also left only two teams with first-round byes, which was terrible news for the Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints, both of whom would have been able to sit out this round in a typical season.Here is a look at the wild-card round. Unlike in the regular season, these picks are not made against the spread.Saturday’s GamesStefon Diggs and Josh Allen have turned the Buffalo Bills into must-see TV.Credit…Maddie Malhotra/Getty ImagesIndianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills, 1:05 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 51One of these teams finished in the N.F.L.’s top 10 in offense and defense, and it wasn’t the Bills (13-3). The Colts (11-5) were wildly inconsistent, barely qualified for the playoffs (Buffalo’s blowout win over Miami in Week 17 helped considerably) and had a bad habit of wearing down as games went along. Despite that, they finished with the statistics of a solid contender and the franchise’s best record since 2014.That could fall apart quickly against Buffalo.The Bills’ success starts with quarterback Josh Allen, who progressed from a mistake-prone gunslinger to a legitimate candidate for the Most Valuable Player Award, leading Buffalo to its first division title since 1995. A fair amount of that improvement should be attributed to the arrival of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, whose presence opened the field for Cole Beasley and John Brown. Buffalo finished second in the N.F.L. in scoring, and closed the season with a six-game win streak in which the team averaged 38.2 points a game.The Bills’ defense didn’t rank nearly as high statistically, but cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds led a unit that tied for the third-most takeaways in the N.F.L. After a rocky start to the year, Buffalo’s defense was particularly impressive in late-season wins over the Chargers and the Steelers.The biggest factor in this game will probably be the weather. It is expected to be around 30 degrees in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Saturday afternoon, and Indianapolis’s quarterback, Philip Rivers, hasn’t won with a kickoff temperature below 35 degrees since Week 12 of the 2013 season. A creaky 39-year-old quarterback who has spent nearly his entire career playing in warm weather or domes is not a recipe for January success in western New York. Pick: BillsWhile John Wolford, right, performed admirably in his N.F.L. debut last week, the Los Angeles Rams are hoping Jared Goff, left, will be available this week.Credit…Harry How/Getty ImagesLos Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:40 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -4 | Total: 42.5That we are discussing whether quarterback Jared Goff can play is a testament to medical advances or his toughness, or both. Goff had surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand on Dec. 28 — that would allow for only 11 days of recovery and rehabilitation. Coach Sean McVay has said Goff is throwing in practice and “preparing himself to play,” but should he be ruled out, the Rams (10-6) would turn again to John Wolford, the pride and joy of the Alliance of American Football and the surprise winner of his first N.F.L. start, which came in Week 17.Be it Wolford or a limited version of Goff, the Rams should be underdogs against the Seahawks (12-4). Seattle’s offense was never in question — Russell Wilson is a threat to throw a touchdown pass to Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf on almost every play — but after a brutal start to the season, the Seahawks’ defense improved considerably. The only solace for Los Angeles is that Seattle may be without safety Jamal Adams and defensive tackle Jarran Reed, which would significantly weaken the Seahawks’ pass rush.At full strength, this would probably have been a terrific game between N.F.C. West heavyweights. And you can’t count out the Rams as long as defensive tackle Aaron Donald — one of the best players in the N.F.L. at any position — is around. But when taken in its diminished form, this game tilts in Seattle’s direction. Pick: SeahawksThe Washington Football Team isn’t quite ready for prime time — and still needs a name — but opponents have become painfully aware of how much damage the rookie defensive end Chase Young, center, can do in any game. Credit…Patrick Smith/Getty ImagesTampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8 | Total: 45Winning your division is important. The Footballers (7-9) have the worst record of any playoff team — they tied the 2010 Seattle Seahawks for the worst record for a playoff team in N.F.L. history — but they get to host a game against the Buccaneers (11-5) by way of Tampa Bay’s being a wild-card entrant. It may seem unfair, but it wasn’t Washington’s fault that the Buccaneers lost both of their games against division rival New Orleans (by a combined score of 72-26).Home field advantage shouldn’t be ignored, and Washington’s defense should give it a bright future, but Tampa Bay is expected to win easily. Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense got into a groove, ending the season with a four-game streak in which they averaged 37 points a game. And Tampa Bay’s defense, which specializes in getting to the quarterback, should have a field day thanks to the limited mobility of Alex Smith, who is not 100 percent after a calf injury to the same leg that nearly ended his career.If there is a path to victory for the Footballers it would start with turnovers caused by Chase Young and Washington’s upstart defense. Young, a rookie defensive end, appears to have skipped right from promising player to superstar. His day for playoff success will most likely come, but not this week. Pick: BuccaneersSunday’s GamesDerrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans rumbled for 195 yards against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. Can he repeat that success?Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesBaltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, 1:05 p.m., ABC and ESPNLine: Ravens -3 | Total: 55Only two road teams are favored this weekend, and while Tampa Bay got that distinction thanks to Washington’s ineptitude, the Ravens (11-5) got there by looking nearly unbeatable over the season’s final five weeks.Somewhat written off after a midseason lull, Baltimore took advantage of a soft schedule to get things right, winning five consecutive games with an aggregate score of 186-89. The formula was familiar, with the Ravens rushing for more than 230 yards in four of the five games, but it was clear that a fire had been set under quarterback Lamar Jackson, who largely recaptured the form that made him the N.F.L.’s most valuable player in 2019.Tennessee’s offense is just as intimidating thanks to a formula not all that different from Baltimore’s. Running back Derrick Henry is a nearly unstoppable force — he became just the eighth N.F.L. player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season — and quarterback Ryan Tannehill makes teams pay for stacking the box with deep strikes to wide receiver A.J. Brown.The Titans (11-5) are nowhere near as capable as Baltimore on defense, but making them underdogs at home ignores the fact that the Ravens haven’t had anything resembling a dominant win over a good team since Week 9. It is possible Baltimore would have had similar late-season success against any opponent, but running up the score against teams like Jacksonville and Cincinnati isn’t enough to support such a bold pick. Pick: TitansChicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, 4:40 p.m., CBS, Nickelodeon and Prime VideoLine: Saints -10 | Total: 47The most interesting part of this game is that Nickelodeon will be doing a broadcast of it for children. There will be animated graphics, guest reporters, filters on the screen and, of course, slime.They couldn’t have picked a better game in which to inject some distraction, as the Bears (8-8) have little business being in the playoffs, let alone playing the Saints (12-4), who were among the N.F.L.’s five best teams this season.Chicago started the season with a 5-1 record, then looked so bad in a six-game losing streak that Coach Matt Nagy’s job appeared to be on the line, and then surprised everyone with three wins to get back in the playoff race. On the season’s final day, the Bears were blown out by Green Bay, but backed into the playoffs because of Arizona’s loss to the Rams.It is hard to imagine quarterback Mitchell Trubisky of the Bears winning a playoff game, but the Saints, who can dominate on both sides of the ball, have repeatedly reminded us that absolutely anything can happen in the playoffs. The Vikings shocked New Orleans in the divisional round of the 2017 season with a Stefon Diggs touchdown catch that will live forever. The Rams got away with an undeserved win in the N.F.C. championship game of the 2018 season thanks to one of the most brutal cases of uncalled pass interference you’ll find. And Minnesota ruined the Saints’ season yet again last year, with Kirk Cousins marching his team 75 yards on nine plays in overtime, throwing a walk-off touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph before Drew Brees could even touch the ball. Pick: SaintsThe Pittsburgh Steelers have frustrated many with a dink-and-dunk approach to offense this season. If they decide to be more aggressive this week, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is more than up for the challenge.Credit…Scott Galvin/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Steelers -6 | Total: 47.5Only 11 teams in the 16-game era have started a season 11-0, and none of the others finished with a record as bad as this season’s Steelers (12-4), who were 1-4 down the stretch. Several factors contributed to Pittsburgh’s collapse, including the team having played the season without a real bye week, injuries to crucial defenders and the decision to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and multiple defensive starters in Week 17. But it is also worth wondering if the Steelers were never as good as their franchise-best start suggested.This is a rematch of the teams’ game in Week 17, which the Browns (11-5) won, 24-22. But the close result had to be disturbing for Cleveland given Mason Rudolph’s starting for Pittsburgh in place of Roethlisberger. Cleveland’s defensive struggles can largely be attributed to three of the team’s four starting defensive backs being out because of coronavirus protocols, but the game was still far more competitive than it should have been.Pittsburgh will have players like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Roethlisberger back this weekend, and while the Browns should get their secondary restored, they will be weakened considerably by having their head coach, Kevin Stefanski, out after he tested positive for the coronavirus. Defensive end Olivier Vernon will be out as well after sustaining a season-ending injury in last week’s win. Of all the games this weekend, this one seems to be the most unpredictable one, but a narrow Pittsburgh victory is the most likely outcome. Pick: Steelers.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 113 Shares169 Views

      in Football

      Enjoy Derrick Henry’s High-Mileage Fun. History Shows It’s Unsustainable.

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyTrend WatchEnjoy Derrick Henry’s High-Mileage Fun. History Shows It’s Unsustainable.The Titans running back rushed for 2,027 yards, the fifth-highest total in N.F.L. history, and is hauling the team back to the postseason. It will be a fleeting joy ride, if past seasons are any indicator.Derrick Henry ran for 710 yards in his final four regular-season games, including 250 yards as the Titans clinched the A.F.C. South with a 41-38 victory over the Houston Texans.Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesJan. 6, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ETTennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the last American muscle car. He’s huge, fast, powerful, a little intimidating and undeniably retro-cool. But he’s not very practical, and despite appearances, he’s probably not built to last.Henry rushed for 2,027 yards this season, the fifth-highest total in N.F.L. history. He became the second running back to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards since Chris Johnson of the Titans in 2009 and Adrian Peterson in 2012, and is just the eighth player in league history to reach that milestone. Henry led or tied for the lead in rushes, yards and rushing touchdowns for the second consecutive season in 2020.Henry’s accomplishments become even more remarkable on closer examination. He rushed for 1,268 yards on first downs alone; that production by itself would have allowed him to finish third in the N.F.L. in total rushing yards. Henry ran for 710 yards in his final four games, including 250 yards as the Titans clinched the A.F.C. South with a 41-38 victory over the Houston Texans, reinforcing his reputation for getting stronger as the season wears on. Pro Football Focus credits Henry with a league-high 77 eluded tackles on running plays; Henry “eludes” most tacklers by tossing them out of the saloon like the hero of a wild West serial, but that still counts.Henry rushed for 446 yards in last year’s playoffs, propelling the Titans to upset victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots before the Kansas City Chiefs came back to defeat them for the A.F.C. championship. Only four other running backs rushed for more yards than Henry in a single postseason, and three of them — Terrell Davis in 1997 and 1998, Marcus Allen in 1983, John Riggins in 1982 — are now Hall of Famers, due in large part to their playoff and Super Bowl heroics. (Titans great Eddie George was the other, in 1999). A similar performance this year could vault the Titans into the Super Bowl and Henry onto a short list of all-time legends.Henry rushed for 446 yards in last year’s playoffs, propelling the Titans to upsets over the Ravens and Patriots. A similar performance this year could vault the Titans into the Super Bowl and Henry onto a short list of all-time legends.Credit…Carmen Mandato/Getty ImagesUnfortunately, strategic trends, analytics precepts and history itself are not on Henry’s side.Henry’s success flies in the face of modern N.F.L. wisdom. He’s a workhorse in a pass-happy league which has determined that sharing carries among a committee is more efficient, sustainable and affordable than force-feeding even the most formidable rusher. Henry rushed 378 times during the regular season, the highest total since DeMarco Murray rushed 392 times for the 2014 Dallas Cowboys. Two or three running backs each season typically earned 350-plus carries from the 1980s through the early 2000s. Only three rushers (Henry, Murray and Arian Foster in 2012) have crossed that threshold in the last decade.Henry’s heavy workload makes him a potential victim of the dreaded Curse of 370, an analytics principle popularized by Football Outsiders in the mid-aughts. Research suggests that 370 or more carries in one season typically result in injuries or steep decline the subsequent season. Murray, for example, fell to just 702 yards in 2015 after his high-mileage 2014 season. History is littered with other examples (and scant counterexamples) of rushers whose careers were curtailed by overuse, many of whom were thought to be exempt from the “curse” given their greatness, fortitude, dedication, etc.(The fact that usage declined at the same time that the Curse of 370 gained exposure is hardly a coincidence. N.F.L. decision makers act like high school tough guys when it comes to analytics, shouting “Math is for nerds!” at news conferences, then whispering asks for all the test answers.)Henry’s rugged style only compounds concerns about his workload. Most modern running backs double as receivers, allowing them to work the sidelines and absorb fewer hits against smaller defenders. Henry hammers the middle of the field like a 1970s running back, turning every Sunday into a demolition derby. It’s a refreshing change of pace in a league that has strayed far from its muddy roots, and Henry certainly catches some defenders off guard by opting to run straight through them instead of around them. But between the carries and the collisions, Henry has voided the terms of his service warranty and is starting to tempt fate.Henry “eludes” most tacklers by tossing them out of the saloon like the hero of a wild West serial, but that still counts.Credit…Jay Laprete/Associated PressEvery generation produces one or two running backs who buck every statistical trend, shrug off grueling workloads and remain effective well after their odometers flip: Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, LaDainian Tomlinson, Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, Allen, Riggins and a few others. Henry may well be one of those backs. Then again, Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell and many other recent rushers appeared to be indestructible one year and their production fell off the next season, in many cases soon after they signed lucrative long-term contracts.The Titans signed Henry for four years and a reported $50 million in July. Despite his current excellence, there’s a high risk that they will wind up paying to have Henry towed to the scrapyard in a year or two.For now, however, the Titans are counting on Henry to once again drag them through the playoffs. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s crisp passing reduces Henry’s burden to a degree, but the Titans defense finished 24th in the league in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed.On Sunday, Tennessee will face a Baltimore Ravens team that scored 186 points in its last five games. They will need Henry to stiff-arm weary defenders and hammer home touchdowns to win that potential shootout but also to have a prayer against the Kansas City Chiefs and/or the Buffalo Bills in later rounds.Henry must do whatever it takes to muscle the Titans way into the Super Bowl this year, because history warns that they will not get many more chances.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 125 Shares179 Views

      in Football

      What We Learned From Week 17 of the NFL Season

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 17 of the N.F.L. SeasonGreen Bay secured home-field advantage, Buffalo ended Miami’s season and Cleveland ended its 17-season playoff drought.Green Bay’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a 72-yard touchdown catch against Chicago, one of four touchdown passes Aaron Rogers threw while helping the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs.Credit…Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesPublished More

    • 75 Shares159 Views

      in Football

      NFL Week 17: What We Learned

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 17 of the N.F.L. SeasonGreen Bay secured home-field advantage, Buffalo ended Miami’s season and Cleveland ended its 17-season playoff drought.Green Bay’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a 72-yard touchdown catch against Chicago, one of four touchdown passes Aaron Rogers threw while helping the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs.Credit…Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesJan. 3, 2021, 9:26 p.m. ETThe Green Bay Packers secured the top seed in the N.F.C. playoffs, while making an excellent argument for Aaron Rodgers as the N.F.L.’s most valuable player. The Buffalo Bills got the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., while effectively ending the Miami Dolphins’ season. And the Cleveland Browns, after 17 seasons that ended in frustration, are back in the playoffs. It was an exciting Sunday even by Week 17 standards, and the playoff field was nearly finalized heading into the nightcap between Washington and Philadelphia.Here’s what we learned:🚨 BIG PLAY ALERT 🚨7️⃣2️⃣-yard TD catch for @MVS__11 💪 #GBvsCHI | #GoPackGo📺 FOX📱 https://t.co/2UxGSiVlvn pic.twitter.com/KriCuvvNPG— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 3, 2021
      The road through the N.F.C. playoffs goes through Green Bay. Perhaps the finest regular season of Aaron Rodgers’s career — one that has included two Most Valuable Player Awards — finished with a 35-16 win over the Chicago Bears and an N.F.C.-best record of 13-3. That gives the Packers home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, forcing opponents to come to Lambeau Field, which won’t have its raucous fans but will still have the frigid weather in which Rodgers has always thrived.Rodgers added four more touchdown passes on Sunday, giving him a career-high of 48, which is tied with Dan Marino for the fifth-most in a season. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers, who seemed miffed when the Packers drafted his potential replacement in April, has 99 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions.Buffalo’s Josh Norman got in on the scoring with a pick-six in the third quarter of the Bills’ blowout of Miami.Credit…Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Bills weren’t taking any chances — and the Dolphins suffered for it. The Bills had already clinched the first A.F.C. East title — their first since 1995 — two weeks ago, while Miami would have guaranteed itself a wild-card spot with a win on Sunday. Despite that, the Bills began the day with Josh Allen at quarterback, let the M.V.P. candidate power them to a 28-6 lead at halftime with three touchdown passes, and then had their defense and backup quarterback Matt Barkley take care of the rest of the game in a 56-26 laugher that never felt remotely close. The Bills captured the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. with a 13-3 record — their best finish since 1991 — while the Dolphins were eliminated from playoff contention thanks to their own loss and Indianapolis’ victory over Jacksonville.A limited number of fans were in attendance to see the Cleveland Browns clinch the team’s second playoff spot since the franchise was restarted in 1999.Credit…David Richard/Associated PressYou can’t end a 17-season playoff drought without a little drama. Despite topping 10 wins for just the second time since 1995, the Cleveland Browns entered the final day needing a win, or some help from other teams, to reach the postseason for the first time since 2002. Pittsburgh decision to rest of Ben Roethlisberger was helpful, but some doubt was introduced when a coronavirus outbreak closed Cleveland’s facilities and left the team without three of its four starting defensive backs. The Browns took a 24-9 lead early in the fourth quarter, but then had to sweat after Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph threw two touchdown passes to close the gap. An onside kick attempt after the second touchdown nearly succeeded, but the Browns, shaking off years of bad breaks, recovered and held on for a nail-biting 24-22 win.Tampa Bay already had plenty of talent on offense, but Tom Brady, who joined the team as a free agent this off-season, was able to utilize it in a much more efficient manner than Jameis Winston had.Credit…Kim Klement/USA Today Sports, via ReutersAdding a six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback is helpful. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers occasionally tantalized last season, but recognized they needed some stability on offense to complement their terrific defense. They replaced the enigmatic Jameis Winston with Tom Brady, who was coming off a difficult season in New England but was seen as a player who could accentuate the team’s strengths. Good call. Brady had a few hiccups along the way, but he finished the year with 4,633 yards passing and a franchise-record 40 touchdown passes. More important, Sunday’s 44-27 victory over the Atlanta Falcons gave the Buccaneers an 11-5 record and made them the No. 5 seed in the N.F.C. for their first trip to the playoffs since 2007.The Titans are far from a one-man show. Derrick Henry rushed for 250 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the eighth player in N.F.L. history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season. But it was a few crucial plays from quarterback Ryan Tannehill late in the game that finished off a thrilling 41-38 win over the Houston Texans and gave Tennessee the A.F.C. South title. With the Titans trailing by 4 with less than two minutes to play, Tannehill sold a play-fake to Henry before running in a 5-yard touchdown. Houston tied the game with a field goal, but Tannehill got the ball back with just 18 seconds remaining and immediately completed a 52-yard pass to A.J. Brown that, along with a 4-yard run by Henry, set up Sam Sloman’s game-winning 37-yard field goal.Darius Leonard had plenty of reason to be excited after a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars put the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs. Leonard’s team owes a debt of gratitude to Miami, as the Dolphins’ loss opened the door for the Colts.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressSome teams get more help than others in making the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts took care of business in a 28-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they made the playoffs because of Miami’s loss to Buffalo. Thanks, Dolphins!The Baltimore Ravens got one of the other A.F.C. wild-card spots by winning a fifth consecutive game — four of which came against teams with losing records. Thanks, schedule makers!And the Chicago Bears, despite a midseason lull and a trouncing by Green Bay on Sunday, earned an N.F.C. wild-card berth thanks in large part to an ankle injury sustained by Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals. Without Murray for much of the game — and with the second-year quarterback hobbled even when he did return — Arizona lost to the short-handed Los Angeles Rams, 18-7. Thanks, football’s brutal nature!Xavier McKinney of the Giants stepped in front of a pass intended for Dalton Schultz of the Cowboys. His interception effectively ended the Cowboys’ season.Credit…Vincent Carchietta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersIt wasn’t meant to be for Dallas. The Cowboys appeared lost when quarterback Dak Prescott fractured his ankle in Week 5. But thanks to the rest of the N.F.C. East being largely hapless, Dallas not only survived until the final week of the season but had a decent chance at a division title. The rival Giants pushed them around for much of the day, looking like a team that was far more talented than its record indicated, but even so the Cowboys had the ball in the game’s final two minutes, trailing by only 4 points, and drove all the way to the Giants’ 7-yard line. A sack and an incomplete pass set up a third-and-goal from the 17-yard line with 1 minute 24 seconds remaining and that’s when Andy Dalton got desperate. He ran from pressure before throwing a brutal interception to Xavier McKinney that effectively ended the Cowboys’ season.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Cleveland’s Nick Chubb helped run his team to victory, carrying the ball 14 times for 108 yards. Credit…Kirk Irwin/Associated PressBrowns 24, Steelers 22 It came in a game in which Pittsburgh played without the defensive stalwarts Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt, but Cleveland still impressed on the ground, racking up 192 yards on 31 carries, letting the team’s biggest strength carry it to the playoffs.Bills 56, Dolphins 26 Miami was hopeful that Tua Tagovailoa could take care of things himself, since Ryan Fitzpatrick — the N.F.L.’s equivalent of an ace relief pitcher — was placed on the Covid-19 reserve list. It didn’t work out. While Tagovailoa threw for 361 yards and a touchdown, the rookie was also intercepted three times, including a pick-six, and never mounted much of a challenge to Buffalo’s dominance on both sides of the ball.Packers 35, Bears 16 The beeping sound you hear is Chicago backing into the playoffs. The Bears came into the day with control of their own fate, but needed help to earn a wild card after quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was largely ineffective and running back David Montgomery was limited to 3.1 yards a carry.Jonathan Taylor was absolutely dominant for Indianapolis, running for 253 yards in the Colts’ win over Jacksonville.Credit…Justin Casterline/Getty ImagesColts 28, Jaguars 14 Indianapolis appeared to be teetering on the edge of a second consecutive brutal second-half collapse, but some terrific play by the team’s defense, and Jonathan Taylor’s 45-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, powered the Colts to victory. Taylor entered the season as a backup to Marlon Mack, but his 253 yards rushing and two touchdowns on Sunday gave him 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns in a terrific rookie year.Titans 41, Texans 38 There were plenty of good things to say about Tennessee after it clinched a hard-won A.F.C. South title, but Houston’s players could hold their heads up high after a terrific second half by quarterback Deshaun Watson made the division rival Titans fight for it.Buccaneers 44, Falcons 27 Antonio Brown (11 catches, 138 yards, two touchdowns) and Chris Godwin (5-133-2) both had terrific games for Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers will be holding their collective breath awaiting an update on the health of wide receiver Mike Evans, who injured his knee on an incomplete pass in the end zone. Evans had 46 yards receiving before the injury, giving him 1,006 for the season — he is the first N.F.L. wide receiver to have 1,000 or more yards in each of his first seven seasons.Ravens 38, Bengals 3 J.K. Dobbins showed off why many people believe he is Baltimore’s top running back going forward, rumbling for 160 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. But Lamar Jackson was nearly as effective, rushing for 97 yards on 11 carries, which left him with 1,005 for the season. He now owns the No. 1 and No. 3 rushing seasons by a quarterback in N.F.L. history.Seattle’s Tyler Lockett celebrated the first of his two fourth-quarter touchdowns while still laying on the turf in the end zone.Credit…Chris Coduto/Getty ImagesSeahawks 26, 49ers 23 San Francisco was leading by 9-6 after three quarters, but Russell Wilson took over in the fourth, throwing two touchdown passes to Tyler Lockett. Alex Collins ran in a score as well and the game would not have been as close if not for a garbage-time score by San Francisco’s Jeff Wilson Jr.Saints 33, Panthers 7 Covid-19 protocols led to New Orleans being without nearly all of its running backs, but that did not slow the team down in the slightest. Ty Montgomery, who plays some wide receiver but also has experience at running back, filled in admirably, carrying the ball 18 times for 105 yards. That, combined with Drew Brees’s three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown from Taysom Hill, was more than enough against Carolina.Rams 18, Cardinals 7 It might not work in the playoffs, but Los Angeles was able to end Arizona’s season with an offense led by quarterback John Wolford, who came into the day with zero career passing attempts and left it with 231 yards passing, a team-leading 56 yards rushing and his first career victory.Giants 23, Cowboys 19 In what may be the perfect encapsulation of the N.F.C. East this season, the Giants’ victory came down to running back Wayne Gallman recovering his own fumble in the closing minutes, just two plays removed from Dallas’ Andy Dalton virtually handing Big Blue the win with an interception.Justin Jefferson’s outrageous rookie season included 88 catches for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.Credit…Raj Mehta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersVikings 37, Lions 35 Justin Jefferson recorded 133 yards receiving, which put him at 1,400 for the season. He broke Randy Moss’s franchise record for a rookie receiver, and finished less than 100 short of the 1,473 Bill Groman had for the A.F.L.’s Houston Oilers in 1960.Minnesota’s skill players were undoubtedly happy to pad their statistics, but they should keep in mind that Detroit’s defense was so bad this season that it allowed 6,716 total yards and 519 points, breaking franchise records set during the Lions’ winless season in 2008.Chargers 38, Chiefs 21 It came against Kansas City’s backups, but Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert was awfully impressive in throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns in a win that has the potential to save Coach Anthony Lynn’s job. Herbert was not even expected to start this season, but after being forced into duty in Week 2, he finished with 4,336 yards passing and a rookie record 31 passing touchdowns.Raiders 32, Broncos 31 This game did not have any playoff implications, and it was often fairly ugly, but it had plenty to offer. Denver took a late lead with a 92-yard touchdown pass from Drew Lock to Jerry Jeudy. Las Vegas took it back with a 1-yard Josh Jacobs touchdown run and a 2-point conversion with just 24 seconds remaining. After swings like that, the game finished in the only logical way: Maxx Crosby of the Raiders blocked Brandon McManus’s attempt at what would have been a 63-yard game-winning field goal.Patriots 28, Jets 14 In what was Coach Adam Gase’s last game with the club, and might be Sam Darnold’s last as its starting quarterback, the Jets went into the fourth quarter tied, 14-14, and then fell apart, allowing Cam Newton to throw a pair of game-sealing touchdown passes. New England came into the day with an N.F.L.-low eight touchdown passes this season, but managed four — including one by a wide receiver — against the Jets.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 113 Shares149 Views

      in Football

      NFL Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadTen teams will be fighting for seven playoff spots on a final regular-season Sunday when numerous playoff seedings can change.Stefon Diggs, center, and Josh Allen, right, led the Buffalo Bills to the team’s first A.F.C. East title since 1995. They go into Week 17 with a chance at locking up the No. 2 seed in their conference.Credit…Adam Glanzman/Getty ImagesDec. 31, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETHeading into the final Sunday of the regular season, seven teams have secured playoff spots and 10 others are in contention for seven positions. The key battles will come in the A.FC. South and the N.F.C. East and for the wild-card spots in both conferences, with plenty of seeding yet to be decided as well.Here is a look at Week 17, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 6-9-1Overall record: 116-116-8A look ahead at Week 17:The A.F.C. Wild CardsThe A.F.C. SouthThe N.F.C. EastThe N.F.C. Wild CardsThe Seeding GamesThe Irrelevant GamesHow Betting Lines WorkThe A.F.C. Wild CardsThe battle for the three wild-card spots in the A.F.C. has come down to Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland and whichever team doesn’t win the A.F.C. South, Tennessee or Indianapolis.Tua Tagovailoa, not pictured, is expected to start at quarterback for Miami, but if the team needs a spark, the Dolphins will turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, center, whom the team used as the football equivalent of a relief pitcher last week.Credit…David Becker/Associated PressMiami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. CBSLine: Bills -1 | Total: 44.5For the last 20 years, the Dolphins (10-5) and the Bills (12-3) have lived in the mighty shadow of the New England Patriots. Thanks to the fall of the New England dynasty, Buffalo has won its first division title since 1995 and Miami is on the verge of its first playoff appearance since 2016 (and just its third since 2001). But in a cruel joke by the scheduling gods, they face off in Week 17, and a loss may come with significant consequences.For Buffalo, the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs is at stake. While that distinction doesn’t come with a bye this season, it still offers home-field advantage — not a small thing when you play your games in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bills will clinch the spot with a win, but would drop to No. 3 if they were to lose in concert with a Pittsburgh victory. That should be enough to keep Buffalo’s starters in for most of the game — with the nice side effect that Josh Allen will be given one more game to bolster his credentials for the Most Valuable Player Award.For Miami, a wild-card spot is within reach. A win will be enough, but if the Dolphins lose, they will need a loss by Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis. There are also several unlikely scenarios that involve multiple teams tying.If both teams go all-out, this game favors Buffalo. The Bills have the N.F.L.’s fourth-ranked offense and 10th-ranked defense, and the conditions at Bills Stadium should be fairly hostile for a visiting team: around 37 degrees with a chance of rain and snow. But the Dolphins shouldn’t be written off. Their run-heavy offense is suited to poor conditions and their defense has generated an N.F.L.-leading 27 turnovers, which could be extremely relevant if Allen gives in to his worst tendencies at exactly the wrong time. Pick: Bills -1Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Ravens -13 | Total: 44.5The Ravens (10-5) have righted the ship in recent weeks, but their midseason lull means their playoff chances are coming down to the season’s final day. Considering that in the past two seasons, Lamar Jackson’s team dominated the regular season before falling apart in the postseason, perhaps a fight to the finish will be good for Baltimore — provided it makes the playoffs.A win is enough to get the Ravens a wild-card spot — a loss by Cleveland or Indianapolis would also get Baltimore in — and while the Bengals (4-10-1) may not seem to be much of an obstacle, it is worth remembering that Cincinnati is coming off a pair of impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Houston. There’s no question that a motivated Ravens team is far better than the Bengals, but Cincinnati’s recent play is enough to throw some cold water on a 13-point spread. Pick: Bengals +13Jarvis Landry’s return from the Covid-19 reserve list should give a huge boost to Cleveland’s offense.Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesPittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -10 | Total: 42After Week 12, Pittsburgh was 11-0 and Cleveland was 8-3, both rocketing their way toward the playoffs. Over the next four games, the Steelers went 1-3, and were very nearly 0-4 if not for a huge second-half comeback last week. The Browns went 2-2, losing to the lowly Jets last week partially because the team had four wide receivers on the Covid-19 reserve list.The downturn has led to Pittsburgh’s dropping to the No. 3 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs and Cleveland’s needing a win, or some help, to get a wild-card spot.Because the Steelers (12-3) would need both a win in their game and a loss by Buffalo to overtake the Bills for the No. 2 seed, Coach Mike Tomlin has declared that Mason Rudolph will start in place of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. That most likely means that Pittsburgh’s other star players on offense, like wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool, will also be limited or sit out as well.The Browns (10-5) should get their wide receivers back, which ought to be enough to get them a win at home, even though safeties Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo have replaced the receivers on the Covid-19 reserve list. Should Cleveland lose, the Browns could still qualify for the playoffs if Indianapolis loses or if a few other complex scenarios involving losses and ties come to be. Is that enough motivation to justify a 10-point spread against the Steelers’ backups? That’s debatable. Pick: Steelers +10Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -14 | Total: 50The Colts (10-5) have a good chance of being the best team in the N.F.L. that doesn’t make the playoffs this season. A solid team with an above-average offense and a spectacular defense, Indianapolis collapsed against Pittsburgh last week and now not only needs to win to get a wild-card spot, but also needs Baltimore, Cleveland or Miami to lose or to tie. Otherwise the Colts will be the No. 8 seed in a seven-team playoff structure.Because each of the three other wild-card pursuers plays at 1 p.m., the Colts will go into this game knowing if they have a chance at one. But even without a shot at one of those three spots, Indianapolis has motivation: A win or a tie, combined with a Tennessee loss, would hand the Colts the A.F.C. South title.For Indianapolis, winning should be easy. The Jaguars (1-14) no longer have direct motivation to lose, as the top pick in next year’s draft is secured, but they don’t have any motivation to win, either. A two-touchdown spread is risky no matter the motivation, but the Colts can cover if they want to. Pick: Colts -14The A.F.C. SouthTennessee owns a tiebreaker over Indianapolis, so if the teams finish with the same record, the Titans will win the division.Tennessee’s Derrick Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,777 yards rushing. Considering how poorly Houston defends the run, Henry has an outside chance of getting the 223 yards he needs for 2,000.Credit…Wade Payne/Associated PressTennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 56.5The Titans (10-5) could have clinched the A.F.C. South with a win over Green Bay, but a blowout loss has left Tennessee with an outside chance of missing the playoffs entirely. To secure a division title, the Titans need a win or an Indianapolis loss, or for both teams to tie. Should Tennessee be overtaken by the Colts, the Titans could still get a wild card provided Baltimore or Miami loses.Let’s not pretend this game is in doubt, though. The Titans have Derrick Henry, the game’s most explosive running back, and Houston has the N.F.L.’s second-worst run defense. Tennessee could probably win this game without attempting a pass. Pick: Titans -7.5The N.F.C. EastThree of the East’s four teams remained alive heading into the final week.Michael Gallup and the Cowboys showed drastic improvement last week. A Dallas win or tie, combined with a Washington loss, will put the Cowboys in the playoffs.Credit…Ron Jenkins/Associated PressDallas Cowboys at Giants, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -3 | Total: 44.5Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 43.5None of the teams in the N.F.C. East have been good enough to warrant individual game entries going into Week 17. The division has three teams vying for its title on the final day of the season, but the best record any of them can attain is 7-9, and there’s a nonzero chance of a 6-10 team hosting a first-round playoff game.When healthy, the Footballers (6-9) are the most complete team in the East, with a decent offense and a defense that has shown drastic improvement. But quarterback Alex Smith is still not 100 percent and wide receiver Terry McLaurin is unlikely to play as a result of an ankle injury. That lessens Washington’s advantage over the Eagles (4-10-1) while also making a case that the Cowboys (6-9) have become the division’s best team, at least temporarily, at exactly the right time.A Dallas loss at 1 p.m. would not lessen Washington’s motivation, as the Giants, somehow, some way, have not been eliminated, and the combination of a Giants win and a Footballers loss would hand Big Blue one of the more baffling division titles in years. But the most likely scenario of the day is for Dallas and Washington to both win, sending the Footballers limping into the playoffs. Picks: Cowboys -3; Footballers -1.5The N.F.C. Wild CardsTampa Bay has clinched one of the three wild-card spots in the N.F.C., but the fight for the two others has come down to Chicago, Arizona and Los Angeles.Chicago’s Roquan Smith had two interceptions in last week’s win. The Bears can secure a wild-card spot with a win over Green Bay.Credit…Stephen B. Morton/Associated PressGreen Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -5.5 | Total: 51.5In his long and decorated career, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is 19-5 against Chicago. He has won seven of his last eight starts against the division rival. Throw in Rodgers’s being in the top tier of M.V.P. candidates, the Packers’ being able to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and the fact that a Chicago loss would eliminate the Bears (8-7) from the playoffs, and you’re looking at a full bingo card of Rodgers’s motivation. The only thing tempering all of that is the site: Chicago’s Soldier Field. But that shouldn’t trick you into thinking the Bears stand a chance against Green Bay (12-3). Pick: Packers -5.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Rams -1 | Total: 39.5This result might not matter, but the players won’t know it at the time. Should Chicago lose to Green Bay, both the Cardinals (8-7) and the Rams (9-6) would earn wild-card spots. But the two games will be played simultaneously, giving Arizona and Los Angeles motivation to beat each other. A Bears win, unlikely as one is, would mean only one of these N.F.C. West teams would qualify.Los Angeles is somehow favored in this one despite quarterback Jared Goff’s being out after surgery on his dislocated right thumb. John Wolford, who went undrafted out of Wake Forest in 2018 and has never thrown a pass in an N.F.L. game, will start in his place. That’s probably not going to cut it against Kyler Murray of the Cardinals, but this game is a nice rags-to-riches story for a player from the short-lived Alliance of American Football, which gave Wolford a chance to prove himself. Pick: Cardinals +1The Seeding GamesTampa Bay, Seattle and New Orleans have clinched playoff spots, but their seedings can be affected by this week’s results.Rob Gronkowski has been the recipient of six of Tom Brady’s franchise-record 36 touchdown passes for the Buccaneers this season. Brady holds the single-season touchdown mark for both Tampa Bay and New England. He leads Drew Brees on the N.F.L.’s career list as well.Credit…Rick Osentoski/Associated PressAtlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 50.5The Buccaneers (10-5) have more than proved themselves in recent weeks, winning three games in a row, including one on the road against the Falcons (4-11). They can secure the No. 5 seed in the N.F.C. with a win, and after contemplating resting his starters, Coach Bruce Arians said, “We’re going to play to win.” Arians called the push for an 11th win a “pride thing.” For Tom Brady, who has set a franchise record for single-season passing touchdowns (36), the start also means a chance to extend his lead over Drew Brees atop the N.F.L.’s career passing touchdowns list. Brady’s big season and Brees’s injury-related absence have led to Brady’s having a nine-touchdown lead in what had been a seesaw battle.Atlanta is better than the team’s record indicates, and the likelihood that numerous Buccaneers players sit out the second half makes this point spread a touch too large. Pick: Falcons +6.5Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -5.5 | Total: 46The Seahawks (11-4) captured their first N.F.C. West crown since 2016 with last week’s win over the Rams, and they go into the season’s final day with a chance at overtaking New Orleans for the No. 2 seed in the N.F.C. While the 49ers (6-9) would undoubtedly love to play a spoiler role of sorts — and they did just that by beating Arizona last week — you have to assume that if Seattle wants to win this game, it will do so handily. Pick: Seahawks -5.5New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -6.5 | Total: 47.5Going into Week 16, the Saints (11-4) had been sluggish on offense. A 52-point game in which Alvin Kamara tied an N.F.L. record with six rushing touchdowns went a long way toward reconfirming New Orleans’s status as a team that can score in bunches. A win would guarantee the Saints the No. 2 seed in the N.F.C. while keeping alive the possibility of a first-round bye, provided Green Bay loses. That should lead to the team’s taking no chances and keeping its starters in the game for a matchup in which the Panthers (5-10) are at a talent disadvantage: Pick: Saints -6.5The Irrelevant GamesThese four games have no relevance to the playoff picture.Since Kansas City has clinched a first-round bye, Chad Henne is expected to start in place of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Henne has seen limited action this season, but he scored a rushing touchdown in Week 7.Credit…Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports, via ReutersLos Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 44The Chiefs (14-1) clinched the top seed in the A.F.C. and a first-round bye with last week’s win, taking any excitement out of this game. Chad Henne is likely to start in place of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and most of Kansas City’s other starters are likely to sit as well — which would rob Travis Kelce of his shot at being the first tight end to have a 1,500-yard receiving season. As a result of Kansas City’s going full “preseason” mode, the Chargers (6-9) are favored. Justin Herbert, the Chargers’ rookie quarterback, should relish his chance to get a win at Arrowhead Stadium, as he might not win there again for some time. Pick: Chargers -3.5Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. FoxLine: Vikings -7 | Total: 54.5Had the Vikings (6-9) not started the year so poorly, they might be in the hunt for a wild-card spot. As it stands, they have a fairly entertaining offense and a defense bad enough that none of their scoring matters. The Lions (5-10) are expected to limp into this game with several players out — including quarterback Matthew Stafford — which means the most interesting subplot of this game will be whether Minnesota’s Adam Thielen can get the 132 yards receiving he needs to reach 1,000 for the season. Even with running back Dalvin Cook out after the death of his father, Minnesota should win easily. Pick: Vikings -7Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Raiders -2.5 | Total: 50.5The Raiders (7-8) and the Broncos (5-10) had moments of relevance in 2020, but it was a lost season for both franchises. With the Chiefs expected to dominate the A.F.C. West for years to come and the Chargers building something special, there may be several lost seasons in their futures as well. Pick: Broncos +2.5Jets at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 40Frank Gore will miss this game after sustaining a lung contusion last week, but he reached 16,000 yards rushing for his career before being removed, which is about the best thing anyone can say about this season for the Jets (2-13). Similarly, the Patriots (6-9) are an irrelevant team that will most likely undergo huge off-season renovations, with the only notable part of their year being Cam Newton’s tying the franchise record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season (12), which Steve Grogan set in 1976. Despite Newton’s horrific passing in recent games, he is likely to start this game, giving him an outside chance of matching his own N.F.L. record of 14 rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season. Pick: Patriots -3How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Titans -7.5, for example, means that Tennessee must beat Houston by at least 8 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 113 Shares149 Views

      in Football

      NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Colts are favored on the road in Pittsburgh, the Rams will try to stay alive in Seattle and a frozen matchup between Tennessee and Green Bay should still have plenty of offense.Linebacker Darius Leonard is one of the game’s best defenders. The Colts finally surrounded him with enough talent for that to matter.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressDec. 24, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. playoff picture should come into sharp focus this weekend, with several division titles and wild-card spots likely to be decided. There will be games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and while a few of them are irrelevant, most can have an impact on the standings.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 16, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-6-2Overall record: 110-107-7A look ahead at Week 16:Sunday’s Best GamesFriday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesIndianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -1.5 | Total: 44.5The Colts (10-4) have seemed better than the Steelers (11-3) for much of this season — and the team’s records are getting closer to reflecting that.Indianapolis has won five of its last six games, getting contributions from newcomers (the rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner) and mainstays (linebacker Darius Leonard, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton). A tiebreaker has the Colts trailing Tennessee in the A.F.C. South, but there is no question Indianapolis did a fine job of rebuilding its team in the last off-season.Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is falling apart. There was a sense during the team’s 11-0 start that the Steelers (11-3) were being overrated, but no one expected three straight losses. Before this year, only nine teams had opened with an 11-0 record in the 16-game era, and just one of those — the 2009 New Orleans Saints — lost three of its final five games. That Pittsburgh matched that ignominious feat with two games remaining is humiliating, but the Steelers can take solace in the fact that the Saints won the Super Bowl that season.Being a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh this late in the season is unusual territory for the Colts, but based on what we have seen in recent weeks, it seems justifiable. Pick: Colts -1.5Green Bay’s Davante Adams has a career high in touchdowns (14) and a chance to set a personal best in receiving yards despite missing two games.Credit…Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Packers -3.5 | Total: 56Only three teams are averaging more than 30 points a game, and two of them face off here. Oddsmakers are expecting it to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and while 56 is a respectable number, you have to wonder how much higher that would be if the forecast in Green Bay didn’t call for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.The Titans (10-4) have been on a roll, with Derrick Henry running roughshod over all comers and Ryan Tannehill making opponents pay for stacking the box by stretching the field with the passing game. That recipe has led to five straight games in which Tennessee had at least 420 yards of total offense and 30 points.The Packers (11-3) have been enjoying an M.V.P.-level season from Aaron Rodgers and a career year from wide receiver Davante Adams, leading to Green Bay’s being held to fewer than 30 points just three times. And while Aaron Jones has fewer rushing touchdowns than he did last season, he is on track to surpass last year’s rushing total while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.Both teams have a great deal of motivation to win, with Tennessee trying to fight off Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South title and Green Bay on the verge of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye. But the Packers’ experience in poor weather could be what decides this one. Pick: Packers -3.5Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -1.5 | Total: 47.5You have to assume the Rams (9-5) squandered their chance at an N.F.C. West title with last week’s abject failure against the Jets. Los Angeles could have come into this game with the same record as the Seahawks (10-4). Instead, Seattle can clinch the division with a win at home. The Rams are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs — a win for them or a loss by Chicago will be enough to get them there — but it is hard to be enthusiastic about a team that allows itself to be beaten by the Jets, who had a talent deficiency at every position. Pick: Seahawks -1.5Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Chiefs -10.5 | Total: 54There is little at stake in this game. The Falcons (4-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention, and while the Chiefs (13-1) can clinch the A.F.C.’s lone first-round bye with a win, they would still have a 98 percent chance of the top seed even if they lost both of their remaining games, according to The Upshot.With stakes that low, there is no reason to rush the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kansas City should be considering resting other key players as well. That could open the door for Atlanta to cover, but the Chiefs should still win. Pick: Falcons +10.5Friday’s MatchupJustin Jefferson, right, and Adam Thielen, center, are frequent dance partners in the end zone, but Minnesota’s defense tends to let the team down.Credit…Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMinnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 51.5Even with consecutive losses, the Saints (10-4) can secure their fourth consecutive division title simply by beating the Vikings (6-8) or having Tampa Bay lose.Will Minnesota put up much resistance? Probably not enough to matter. The Vikings have an incredibly talented offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen putting on a show even in losses. But Minnesota’s defense is still so young and inconsistent that the team typically gives up just enough points to lose.Drew Brees looked rusty last week, and wide receiver Michael Thomas is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. So while a New Orleans win is likely, this game could be close. Pick: Vikings +7.5Saturday’s MatchupsRather than throwing within 10 yards of Miami’s Xavien Howard, opponents should consider punting the ball away. The net result would be preferable.Credit…Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Dolphins -3 | Total: 47.5At this point it is ridiculous that opposing quarterbacks are challenging Xavien Howard of the Dolphins (9-5). He is the top-rated coverage cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, but teams have thrown in his direction often enough that he is leading the N.F.L. with nine interceptions and has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games.If the Raiders (7-7) want to win this game, they should give Howard the old Darrelle Revis “island” treatment. But it shouldn’t matter much if Derek Carr (injured groin) or Marcus Mariota starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, as the Dolphins are a better team and have more motivation to win thanks to their dogfight with Baltimore for the A.F.C.’s last wild-card spot. Pick: Dolphins -3Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Buccaneers -9.5 | Total: 54When Matthew Stafford inevitably makes a run at Drew Brees’s record for career passing yards, stretches like the final three weeks of this season will be a big reason. Stafford sustained a rib injury in Week 14; it was serious enough that he struggled to walk. He surprised everyone by starting in Week 15, and threw for 252 yards in a loss to Tennessee. Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention, and Stafford’s ribs are still extremely sore, but the team’s interim coach, Darrell Bevell, said there were no plans to shut down the veteran quarterback: “To be honest with you, I don’t think he’ll let that happen.”So what should people expect from this game? Between hard hits from the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers (9-5), Stafford will probably throw for 250 to 300 yards and the Lions (5-9) will lose anyway. Because a win or a tie will put Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, that series of events will be acceptable to the Buccaneers. Covering the spread will be harder, though, with running back Ronald Jones out after a positive test for the coronavirus. Pick: Lions +9.5San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m., Prime VideoLine: Cardinals -5 | Total: 49Both teams should feel at home since the 49ers (5-9) have relocated to Arizona as a result of coronavirus regulations in California. That’s the most interesting subplot of a game between San Francisco’s injury-riddled team and the Cardinals (8-6), an up-and-coming squad that can clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 by winning Saturday and having Chicago lose to or tie Jacksonville. With Nick Mullens requiring elbow surgery, San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Quarterback record is an overrated statistic, but Beathard has lived up to his last name with a career mark of 1-9. Pick: Cardinals -5Sunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown have had fun beating up on lesser teams in the last few weeks. That trend could continue.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesGiants at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Ravens -11 | Total: 45The Giants (5-9) are clinging to a shred of a chance at winning the N.F.C. East, but they are running into the Ravens (9-5) at the wrong time. Baltimore is through its tough patch and appears to have its offensive issues worked out — at least against the league’s lesser teams — and that takes this game from potentially interesting to a comical mismatch.The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to overtake Miami for the A.F.C.’s last playoff spot, and a home game against a team that is coming apart at the seams is an excellent opportunity for them to flex their muscles. Pick: Ravens -11Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Footballers -2.5 | Total: 44.5The late-night escapades of Dwayne Haskins resulted in the young quarterback being fined, but he wasn’t suspended. That leaves the Footballers (6-8) with a decent enough option should Alex Smith be unable to return from a calf injury. Smith is the team’s best option, and gives Washington its best chance of making the playoffs, but his health casts doubt on this game against the Panthers (4-10) that wouldn’t be there if he were 100 percent.The combination of a Washington win and a loss by the Giants would secure the N.F.C. East title for the Footballers, and having that decided this week would be welcome for a team that is trying to get healthy. Pick: Footballers -2.5Cleveland Browns at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -9.5 | Total: 47The Jets (1-13) had no motivation to beat the Rams last week beyond avoiding a winless season, but that was enough to power them to the most surprising result of the year. The victory, however, splashed cold water on their future. Combined with tiebreaker scenarios, the win meant the Jets were no longer in line for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.Now they will host the Browns (10-4), who are significantly better than them in every facet of the game. Cleveland can clinch its first playoff berth since 2002 by winning and having Baltimore, Miami or Indianapolis lose. Pick: Browns -9.5Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -7.5 | Total: 47Despite a recent surge, the Bears (7-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While a win over the Jaguars (1-13) is certainly attainable — if Jacksonville loses out, it will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — Chicago’s only real shot at the playoffs is to have Arizona fall apart. It’s still nice to see the Bears right the ship, even if it leads to nothing, as the team’s defense deserved much better than it got from its offense during a six-game losing streak. The Bears should win, but there are too many variables to assume they will cover. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterThe Eagles have been doing a lot of celebrating since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersPhiladelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Eagles -2.5 | Total: 49.5The ridiculous nature of the N.F.C. East means that neither of these teams has been officially eliminated. But the Eagles (4-9-1) have only a 10 percent chance of capturing the N.F.L.’s worst division, according to The Upshot, and the Cowboys (5-9) have a 6 percent chance. The game is worth watching to see Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts continue to grow into his role as a starting quarterback, and Dallas’s skill players are good enough to make Andy Dalton serviceable on a good day. Pick: Eagles -2.5Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -3 | Total: 48.5Come for the meeting of promising young A.F.C. West quarterbacks. Stay if it is your local broadcast and you don’t have access to out-of-market games. The Broncos (5-9) and the Chargers (5-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but these will be teams to watch for next season. Pick: Chargers -3Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Texans -8 | Total: 46The Bengals (3-10-1) are fresh off an upset of Pittsburgh, and thanks to Deshaun Watson, the Texans (4-10) can often do an impression of a competent team. There isn’t a lot of motivation to go around, which makes a hefty point spread a bit curious. Pick: Bengals +8Monday’s MatchupIn his first season with the Bills, Stefon Diggs has career highs in receptions and receiving yards.Credit…Jack Dempsey/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m., ESPN and ABCLine: Bills -7 | Total: 46How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are. After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first A.F.C. East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out. But Coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass.A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory. Pick: Bills -7How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Colts -1.5, for example, means that Indianapolis must beat Pittsburgh by at least 2 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 75 Shares159 Views

      in Football

      NFL Week 15: What We Learned

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 15 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Chiefs won a potential Super Bowl preview against the Saints, the Titans and the Colts stayed hot and the previously winless Jets pulled off the upset of the season.Tennessee’s Derrick Henry demolished Detroit’s Alex Myres with a vicious stiff arm in the first half of the Titans’ 46-25 win over the Lions.Credit…Brett Carlsen/Associated PressDec. 20, 2020Updated 8:34 p.m. ETFavored teams did well on Sunday, with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the New Orleans Saints, the A.F.C. South heavyweights both winning and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting slowly before racing back for a surprising road win over Atlanta. But the previously winless Jets pulled off the upset of the season by beating the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams.Here’s what we learned:Derrick Henry with the MEAN stiff arm! 👑📺: Watch #DETvsTEN on CBS pic.twitter.com/1jhPLFZncg— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 20, 2020
      A Derrick Henry stiff arm sounds even scarier than it looks. Henry is known for turning the stiff arm into a work of art, but he took it up a notch in the Tennessee Titans’ laughable 46-25 victory over the Detroit Lions. On a 7-yard run early in the second quarter, Henry was heading toward the left sideline when Alex Myres, a second-year cornerback, tried to wrap up the much larger running back. Henry thrust his right hand at Myres’s head, producing a thundering slap that sent Myres tumbling to the ground.It was one of numerous highlights for Henry on Sunday, as he rushed for 147 yards and scored his 15th rushing touchdown of the season. Henry is up to a career-high 1,679 yards rushing, putting him 195 ahead of Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook for the N.F.L. lead. Henry could become the first player with consecutive rushing titles since the Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2006 and 2007.Kansas City’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured on a running play late in the Chiefs’ win over the New Orleans Saints.Credit…Brett Duke/Associated PressA huge win can come with an even bigger loss. In what was potentially a Super Bowl preview, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the New Orleans Saints, 32-29, improving to an N.F.L.-best 13-1 and retaining the top spot in the A.F.C. playoff race. But toward the end of the game, Kansas City running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire — a rookie first-round pick out of Louisiana State who immediately stepped in as a vital part of Kansas City’s offense this season — had his left leg get trapped under him and had to be carried off the field with what appeared to be a serious injury to his leg and hip. The extent of Edwards-Helaire’s injury has yet to be announced, but the team said initial X-rays were negative and that he would continue to be evaluated.Xavien Howard is a takeaway. He has tough competition, but Miami’s Howard should get a great deal of consideration for the N.F.L.’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. Howard, a 27-year-old cornerback, forced a fumble in Miami’s 22-12 victory over New England. The loss eliminated the Patriots from playoff contention. Howard also had a fumble recovery for a touchdown that was called back because another player had stepped out of bounds before touching the ball. With nine interceptions this season, plus Sunday’s forced fumble, Howard has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games. He is a huge reason the Dolphins have shocked the N.F.L. with a record of 9-5.Howard’s competition for the award includes Aaron Donald of the Rams — a two-time winner — and T.J. Watt of the Steelers. But Howard’s case would get a huge exclamation point with one more interception, as he would be the first player since 2007 to have 10 in a season.Houston’s Keke Coutee got incredibly close to punching the ball into the end zone late in the game, but Indianapolis forced a fumble and walked away with a 27-20 victory.Credit…Zach Bolinger/Associated PressYou have to watch until the end of every Texans-Colts game. Even in a down season for Houston, the A.F.C. South rivalry between the Texans and the Indianapolis Colts has provided two extremely memorable games. Two weeks ago, Houston appeared to be on the verge of taking the lead in the final two minutes when a bad snap led to a fumble and allowed Indianapolis to run out the clock. Sunday’s game was just as wild, with the Colts, clinging to a 27-20 lead in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to get into the red zone. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson connected with Keke Coutee, who stretched forward at the Colts’ 2-yard line only to fumble the ball away, handing yet another win to Indianapolis.The victory allowed the Colts to keep pace with Tennessee in the A.F.C. South. It was the 14th consecutive regular-season game between Indianapolis and Houston that was decided by 9 or fewer points.It had been more than three years since Dez Bryant was able to do his signature touchdown celebration.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressDez Bryant wasn’t done. In Baltimore’s emphatic 40-14 win over Jacksonville, one of Lamar Jackson’s three touchdown passes went to Bryant, a 32-year-old wide receiver whose N.F.L. career appeared to be over several times in the past. It had been 1,106 days since Bryant’s last touchdown, 982 days since he was released by Dallas, 772 days since he tore his Achilles’ tendon in a practice for New Orleans and 12 days since he appeared to announce his season was over on Twitter shortly after being pulled off the field during warm-ups because of a positive test for the coronavirus.Bryant has just five receptions this season, but that is five more than just about anyone expected him to get.Tampa Bay got off to a remarkably slow start on Sunday, but Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were dominant in the second half.Credit…Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesThe Buccaneers can dig out of a hole. Tampa Bay has had a problem with slow starts all season, being outscored by 32 points in first quarters. That sluggishness was taken to an extreme on Sunday when the Buccaneers went into halftime trailing Atlanta, 17-0, having gained just 60 total yards. Tampa Bay proceeded to have its players wake up on both sides of the ball, producing 356 second-half yards and walking away with a 31-27 win on the road thanks to Tom Brady’s go-ahead, 46-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown in the fourth quarter. Atlanta had two more chances to regain the lead, but Tampa Bay’s defense locked in, forcing a punt and a turnover on downs.The Jets can’t even tank right. With a touchdown pass by Sam Darnold, a rushing touchdown by the ageless Frank Gore — the 100th touchdown of Gore’s career — and three field goals from Sam Ficken, the Jets delivered the biggest upset of the season, beating the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, after coming in as 17-point underdogs. Avoiding a winless season is surely a relief for the Jets’ players, but the victory, combined with Jacksonville’s 13th straight loss, has the Jaguars in line for the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft with two games remaining for both teams.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Kansas City’s Travis Kelce had eight catches for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ win over the New Orleans Saints.Credit…Chris Graythen/Getty ImagesChiefs 32, Saints 29 Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Drew Brees looked their best in this one, but Mahomes’s three touchdown passes and a Le’Veon Bell rushing touchdown put Kansas City up by enough that New Orleans’ late comeback attempt proved fruitless.Colts 27, Texans 20 Indianapolis led, 14-0, in the first quarter before this became a close game. Houston put up a strong fight, but Philip Rivers’s 5-yard touchdown pass with 1 minute 47 seconds remaining proved to be enough, barely.Titans 46, Lions 25 Tennessee was leading by only 24-18 after three quarters, but things got ridiculous from there, with Ryan Tannehill throwing two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in addition to scoring a 3-yard rushing touchdown — his second rushing touchdown of the game. The Titans lead Indianapolis in the A.F.C. South thanks to their superior record in division games.Frank Gore of the Jets scored his 100th career touchdown, and helped ice the Jets’ upset win over the Los Angeles Rams with a crucial first down late in the fourth quarter.Credit…Robert Hanashiro/USA Today Sports, via ReutersJets 23, Rams 20 It has been a horrible season for the Jets, but on this day they took care of business on offense, produced a takeaway on defense, and then held on for dear life in a game that seemed like it could slip away at any second.Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27 The stakes were not close to what they were in Tom Brady’s last huge comeback win over Atlanta — the Falcons’ collapse after leading Brady’s Patriots by 28-3 in the Super Bowl of the 2016 season is hard to top — but you’d have to imagine the Falcons, who led Tampa Bay on Sunday by 17-0 and 24-7 before losing, are looking forward to Brady retiring someday.Ravens 40, Jaguars 14 It is presumably OK to stop worrying about Baltimore’s offense after it led the team to a third consecutive win, with Lamar Jackson throwing three touchdown passes and running in another during a game that was decided by halftime.Miami’s Salvon Ahmed ran for 122 yards and a touchdown, helping the Dolphins eliminate the New England Patriots from playoff contention.Credit…Chris O’Meara/Associated PressDolphins 22, Patriots 12 Led by running backs Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida, Miami rumbled for 250 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins are in line for the A.F.C.’s final wild-card spot — thanks to a tiebreaker over Baltimore — and have clinched a winning season for just the second time since 2008.Seahawks 20, Footballers 15 Washington came surprisingly close to rallying from a 20-3 deficit, but the Seahawks’ much-maligned defense forced a turnover on downs in the final minute that gave Seattle a win and clinched a playoff spot.Bears 33, Vikings 27 Minnesota was playing at home, got 132 yards rushing from Dalvin Cook and 104 yards receiving from Justin Jefferson, and still lost. Credit Chicago all you want, but the Vikings’ defense needs a lot of work.Arizona’s Kyler Murray scored his 11th rushing touchdown of the season.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCardinals 33, Eagles 26 Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray were back-to-back Heisman Trophy finalists at Oklahoma — Murray won the award in 2018 — and they showed off how well their skills translate to the N.F.L. on Sunday. Philadelphia’s Hurts threw for 338 yards, Arizona’s Murray threw for 406, both of them threw three touchdown passes and both of them also ran in a score. But Murray’s Cardinals came out on top thanks to a late defensive stand.Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 Running back Ezekiel Elliott missed a game because of injury for the first time in his career, and he watched his backup, Tony Pollard, put up a strong performance: 132 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Elliott hasn’t had 130 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 15 of last season.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

    • 88 Shares169 Views

      in Football

      Can Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?

      by

      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storytrend watchCan Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?Sure, Kansas City (12-1) is flawed, but its closest challengers have a long way to go to usurp a Super Bowl berth.Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, left, and receiver Tyreek Hill, with football, usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for any Chiefs miscues.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesDec. 16, 2020, 3:00 a.m. ETThe only real danger to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs will be the Chiefs themselves.The defending N.F.L. champions have grown bored of terrestrial football lately. The Chiefs (who have already clinched the A.F.C. West) now strive to turn their games into inscrutable performance art installations, allowing inferior opponents to stay close while they execute play concepts that appear to have been found scribbled in the margins of Hunter S. Thompson manuscripts.Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for their penalties, turnovers and self-indulgent noodling, but the Chiefs’ weekly attempts to commune with the cosmos could eventually result in a playoff upset that allows one of the following pretty good — but far from flawless — challengers to represent the A.F.C. in the Super Bowl.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)The Steelers rose to 11-0 by pummeling opponents’ backup quarterbacks while hoping that no one noticed that their offense is built entirely out of screen passes. The Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills figured out in recent victories over the Steelers that Ben Roethlisberger now throws the football like he’s trying to float a Ping-Pong ball into a red plastic cup. The Steelers’ defense remains dominant, when not dealing with health issues, and the team can find reassurance in the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers nearly beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season with the same set of strengths and weaknesses.Buffalo Bills (10-3)Decades in the shadow of the New England Patriots left the Bills with a deep-seated inferiority complex, and they lost important midseason games to the Chiefs and Tennessee Titans after a 4-0 start by playing as if they simply felt unworthy of being counted among the A.F.C. front-runners.The Bills appear to have outgrown their self-doubt in recent victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Steelers, but behavioral conditioning can be hard to break. If quarterback Josh Allen transforms back into an interception-happy Winter Soldier when the Bills visit the Patriots in Week 16, it may mean that the Bills have been irrevocably compromised.Tennessee Titans (9-4)Running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You,” or a holiday shopper stiff-arming store greeters and grandparents en route to an (empty) PlayStation 5 display. Henry rushed for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and he appears determined to stuff the Titans’ traditional smash mouth values down everyone’s throats for the holidays just like he did last year.The Titans’ defense is not nearly as rugged and playoff-ready as their old-fashioned reputation might suggest, but bludgeoning skeptics into quiet acquiescence is also a December tradition, as is post-holiday disappointment.Titans running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter or Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You.” Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesCleveland Browns (9-4)With their balanced offense and dangerous pass rush, the Browns are almost ready to compete for the Super Bowl. But the universe itself is not quite ready for the Browns to compete for the Super Bowl; Lamar Jackson’s recovery from mid-game cramps and fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Browns in Monday night’s 47-42 thriller may have been reality’s way of repairing a dangerous rift in its own fabric.The Browns are enjoying their first winning season since 2007. Allowing them to enjoy anything more would simply be too much pleasure for anyone to experience in 2020.Indianapolis Colts (9-4)The Colts are kit-bashed together from leftover pieces of the 2010s San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (Philip Rivers), 2017 Minnesota Vikings (cornerback Xavier Rhodes) and last year’s 49ers (defensive tackle DeForest Buckner), all hot-glued onto the frame of the Andrew Luck-era team. As a result, they look pretty good until you examine closely and realize that they were cobbled together almost purposely so they could lose a playoff game.Miami Dolphins (8-5)The Dolphins are better at making opponents look foolish than at making themselves look like legitimate contenders. They combined takeaways (they’re tied with the Steelers for the N.F.L. lead with 25) with excellent special teams and an ultraconservative offense to upset the Los Angeles Rams, throw a scare into the Chiefs last week and win lots of low-scoring games against the Jets and other bottom-feeders.Like the Bills, the Dolphins may be programmed by decades of hopelessness to self-destruct if they come too close to success. Head coach Brian Flores already benched rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in one loss in what looked like a panicky move, and Flores might be tempted to turn again to Ryan Fitzpatrick when he needs a comeback, not realizing that the real “FitzMagic” is the outsized reputation the journeyman backup has nurtured by almost winning meaningful games.Baltimore Ravens (8-5)With their midseason swoon behind them but with obvious lingering shortcomings on both sides of the ball, the Ravens are barreling toward yet another off-season of “why can’t Lamar Jackson win playoff games?” conversations. Come late January, that may be the only thing fathers-in-law on Facebook have to talk about.Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season in November. But asking them to be on the field during the playoffs is a stretch.Credit…David Becker/Associated PressThe Raiders remain mathematically alive but have lost three of their last four games, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther on Sunday after surrendering 44 points in a loss to the Colts and (more troublingly) 28 points in a near-loss to the Jets.The Raiders upset the Chiefs in Week 5 and lost by just four points in the Week 11 rematch, so they cannot be discounted as a threat if they reach the playoffs. But again: The trick to winning the A.F.C. is to be on the field when the Chiefs decide to beat themselves. The Raiders are the least likely of the A.F.C. playoff hopefuls to position themselves to make that happen.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More