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      NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Colts are favored on the road in Pittsburgh, the Rams will try to stay alive in Seattle and a frozen matchup between Tennessee and Green Bay should still have plenty of offense.Linebacker Darius Leonard is one of the game’s best defenders. The Colts finally surrounded him with enough talent for that to matter.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressDec. 24, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. playoff picture should come into sharp focus this weekend, with several division titles and wild-card spots likely to be decided. There will be games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and while a few of them are irrelevant, most can have an impact on the standings.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 16, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-6-2Overall record: 110-107-7A look ahead at Week 16:Sunday’s Best GamesFriday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesIndianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -1.5 | Total: 44.5The Colts (10-4) have seemed better than the Steelers (11-3) for much of this season — and the team’s records are getting closer to reflecting that.Indianapolis has won five of its last six games, getting contributions from newcomers (the rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner) and mainstays (linebacker Darius Leonard, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton). A tiebreaker has the Colts trailing Tennessee in the A.F.C. South, but there is no question Indianapolis did a fine job of rebuilding its team in the last off-season.Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is falling apart. There was a sense during the team’s 11-0 start that the Steelers (11-3) were being overrated, but no one expected three straight losses. Before this year, only nine teams had opened with an 11-0 record in the 16-game era, and just one of those — the 2009 New Orleans Saints — lost three of its final five games. That Pittsburgh matched that ignominious feat with two games remaining is humiliating, but the Steelers can take solace in the fact that the Saints won the Super Bowl that season.Being a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh this late in the season is unusual territory for the Colts, but based on what we have seen in recent weeks, it seems justifiable. Pick: Colts -1.5Green Bay’s Davante Adams has a career high in touchdowns (14) and a chance to set a personal best in receiving yards despite missing two games.Credit…Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Packers -3.5 | Total: 56Only three teams are averaging more than 30 points a game, and two of them face off here. Oddsmakers are expecting it to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and while 56 is a respectable number, you have to wonder how much higher that would be if the forecast in Green Bay didn’t call for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.The Titans (10-4) have been on a roll, with Derrick Henry running roughshod over all comers and Ryan Tannehill making opponents pay for stacking the box by stretching the field with the passing game. That recipe has led to five straight games in which Tennessee had at least 420 yards of total offense and 30 points.The Packers (11-3) have been enjoying an M.V.P.-level season from Aaron Rodgers and a career year from wide receiver Davante Adams, leading to Green Bay’s being held to fewer than 30 points just three times. And while Aaron Jones has fewer rushing touchdowns than he did last season, he is on track to surpass last year’s rushing total while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.Both teams have a great deal of motivation to win, with Tennessee trying to fight off Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South title and Green Bay on the verge of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye. But the Packers’ experience in poor weather could be what decides this one. Pick: Packers -3.5Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -1.5 | Total: 47.5You have to assume the Rams (9-5) squandered their chance at an N.F.C. West title with last week’s abject failure against the Jets. Los Angeles could have come into this game with the same record as the Seahawks (10-4). Instead, Seattle can clinch the division with a win at home. The Rams are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs — a win for them or a loss by Chicago will be enough to get them there — but it is hard to be enthusiastic about a team that allows itself to be beaten by the Jets, who had a talent deficiency at every position. Pick: Seahawks -1.5Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Chiefs -10.5 | Total: 54There is little at stake in this game. The Falcons (4-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention, and while the Chiefs (13-1) can clinch the A.F.C.’s lone first-round bye with a win, they would still have a 98 percent chance of the top seed even if they lost both of their remaining games, according to The Upshot.With stakes that low, there is no reason to rush the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kansas City should be considering resting other key players as well. That could open the door for Atlanta to cover, but the Chiefs should still win. Pick: Falcons +10.5Friday’s MatchupJustin Jefferson, right, and Adam Thielen, center, are frequent dance partners in the end zone, but Minnesota’s defense tends to let the team down.Credit…Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMinnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 51.5Even with consecutive losses, the Saints (10-4) can secure their fourth consecutive division title simply by beating the Vikings (6-8) or having Tampa Bay lose.Will Minnesota put up much resistance? Probably not enough to matter. The Vikings have an incredibly talented offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen putting on a show even in losses. But Minnesota’s defense is still so young and inconsistent that the team typically gives up just enough points to lose.Drew Brees looked rusty last week, and wide receiver Michael Thomas is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. So while a New Orleans win is likely, this game could be close. Pick: Vikings +7.5Saturday’s MatchupsRather than throwing within 10 yards of Miami’s Xavien Howard, opponents should consider punting the ball away. The net result would be preferable.Credit…Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Dolphins -3 | Total: 47.5At this point it is ridiculous that opposing quarterbacks are challenging Xavien Howard of the Dolphins (9-5). He is the top-rated coverage cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, but teams have thrown in his direction often enough that he is leading the N.F.L. with nine interceptions and has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games.If the Raiders (7-7) want to win this game, they should give Howard the old Darrelle Revis “island” treatment. But it shouldn’t matter much if Derek Carr (injured groin) or Marcus Mariota starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, as the Dolphins are a better team and have more motivation to win thanks to their dogfight with Baltimore for the A.F.C.’s last wild-card spot. Pick: Dolphins -3Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Buccaneers -9.5 | Total: 54When Matthew Stafford inevitably makes a run at Drew Brees’s record for career passing yards, stretches like the final three weeks of this season will be a big reason. Stafford sustained a rib injury in Week 14; it was serious enough that he struggled to walk. He surprised everyone by starting in Week 15, and threw for 252 yards in a loss to Tennessee. Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention, and Stafford’s ribs are still extremely sore, but the team’s interim coach, Darrell Bevell, said there were no plans to shut down the veteran quarterback: “To be honest with you, I don’t think he’ll let that happen.”So what should people expect from this game? Between hard hits from the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers (9-5), Stafford will probably throw for 250 to 300 yards and the Lions (5-9) will lose anyway. Because a win or a tie will put Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, that series of events will be acceptable to the Buccaneers. Covering the spread will be harder, though, with running back Ronald Jones out after a positive test for the coronavirus. Pick: Lions +9.5San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m., Prime VideoLine: Cardinals -5 | Total: 49Both teams should feel at home since the 49ers (5-9) have relocated to Arizona as a result of coronavirus regulations in California. That’s the most interesting subplot of a game between San Francisco’s injury-riddled team and the Cardinals (8-6), an up-and-coming squad that can clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 by winning Saturday and having Chicago lose to or tie Jacksonville. With Nick Mullens requiring elbow surgery, San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Quarterback record is an overrated statistic, but Beathard has lived up to his last name with a career mark of 1-9. Pick: Cardinals -5Sunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown have had fun beating up on lesser teams in the last few weeks. That trend could continue.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesGiants at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Ravens -11 | Total: 45The Giants (5-9) are clinging to a shred of a chance at winning the N.F.C. East, but they are running into the Ravens (9-5) at the wrong time. Baltimore is through its tough patch and appears to have its offensive issues worked out — at least against the league’s lesser teams — and that takes this game from potentially interesting to a comical mismatch.The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to overtake Miami for the A.F.C.’s last playoff spot, and a home game against a team that is coming apart at the seams is an excellent opportunity for them to flex their muscles. Pick: Ravens -11Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Footballers -2.5 | Total: 44.5The late-night escapades of Dwayne Haskins resulted in the young quarterback being fined, but he wasn’t suspended. That leaves the Footballers (6-8) with a decent enough option should Alex Smith be unable to return from a calf injury. Smith is the team’s best option, and gives Washington its best chance of making the playoffs, but his health casts doubt on this game against the Panthers (4-10) that wouldn’t be there if he were 100 percent.The combination of a Washington win and a loss by the Giants would secure the N.F.C. East title for the Footballers, and having that decided this week would be welcome for a team that is trying to get healthy. Pick: Footballers -2.5Cleveland Browns at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -9.5 | Total: 47The Jets (1-13) had no motivation to beat the Rams last week beyond avoiding a winless season, but that was enough to power them to the most surprising result of the year. The victory, however, splashed cold water on their future. Combined with tiebreaker scenarios, the win meant the Jets were no longer in line for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.Now they will host the Browns (10-4), who are significantly better than them in every facet of the game. Cleveland can clinch its first playoff berth since 2002 by winning and having Baltimore, Miami or Indianapolis lose. Pick: Browns -9.5Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -7.5 | Total: 47Despite a recent surge, the Bears (7-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While a win over the Jaguars (1-13) is certainly attainable — if Jacksonville loses out, it will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — Chicago’s only real shot at the playoffs is to have Arizona fall apart. It’s still nice to see the Bears right the ship, even if it leads to nothing, as the team’s defense deserved much better than it got from its offense during a six-game losing streak. The Bears should win, but there are too many variables to assume they will cover. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterThe Eagles have been doing a lot of celebrating since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersPhiladelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Eagles -2.5 | Total: 49.5The ridiculous nature of the N.F.C. East means that neither of these teams has been officially eliminated. But the Eagles (4-9-1) have only a 10 percent chance of capturing the N.F.L.’s worst division, according to The Upshot, and the Cowboys (5-9) have a 6 percent chance. The game is worth watching to see Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts continue to grow into his role as a starting quarterback, and Dallas’s skill players are good enough to make Andy Dalton serviceable on a good day. Pick: Eagles -2.5Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -3 | Total: 48.5Come for the meeting of promising young A.F.C. West quarterbacks. Stay if it is your local broadcast and you don’t have access to out-of-market games. The Broncos (5-9) and the Chargers (5-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but these will be teams to watch for next season. Pick: Chargers -3Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Texans -8 | Total: 46The Bengals (3-10-1) are fresh off an upset of Pittsburgh, and thanks to Deshaun Watson, the Texans (4-10) can often do an impression of a competent team. There isn’t a lot of motivation to go around, which makes a hefty point spread a bit curious. Pick: Bengals +8Monday’s MatchupIn his first season with the Bills, Stefon Diggs has career highs in receptions and receiving yards.Credit…Jack Dempsey/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m., ESPN and ABCLine: Bills -7 | Total: 46How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are. After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first A.F.C. East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out. But Coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass.A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory. Pick: Bills -7How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Colts -1.5, for example, means that Indianapolis must beat Pittsburgh by at least 2 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 15: What We Learned

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 15 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Chiefs won a potential Super Bowl preview against the Saints, the Titans and the Colts stayed hot and the previously winless Jets pulled off the upset of the season.Tennessee’s Derrick Henry demolished Detroit’s Alex Myres with a vicious stiff arm in the first half of the Titans’ 46-25 win over the Lions.Credit…Brett Carlsen/Associated PressDec. 20, 2020Updated 8:34 p.m. ETFavored teams did well on Sunday, with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the New Orleans Saints, the A.F.C. South heavyweights both winning and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting slowly before racing back for a surprising road win over Atlanta. But the previously winless Jets pulled off the upset of the season by beating the heavily favored Los Angeles Rams.Here’s what we learned:Derrick Henry with the MEAN stiff arm! 👑📺: Watch #DETvsTEN on CBS pic.twitter.com/1jhPLFZncg— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 20, 2020
      A Derrick Henry stiff arm sounds even scarier than it looks. Henry is known for turning the stiff arm into a work of art, but he took it up a notch in the Tennessee Titans’ laughable 46-25 victory over the Detroit Lions. On a 7-yard run early in the second quarter, Henry was heading toward the left sideline when Alex Myres, a second-year cornerback, tried to wrap up the much larger running back. Henry thrust his right hand at Myres’s head, producing a thundering slap that sent Myres tumbling to the ground.It was one of numerous highlights for Henry on Sunday, as he rushed for 147 yards and scored his 15th rushing touchdown of the season. Henry is up to a career-high 1,679 yards rushing, putting him 195 ahead of Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook for the N.F.L. lead. Henry could become the first player with consecutive rushing titles since the Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2006 and 2007.Kansas City’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured on a running play late in the Chiefs’ win over the New Orleans Saints.Credit…Brett Duke/Associated PressA huge win can come with an even bigger loss. In what was potentially a Super Bowl preview, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the New Orleans Saints, 32-29, improving to an N.F.L.-best 13-1 and retaining the top spot in the A.F.C. playoff race. But toward the end of the game, Kansas City running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire — a rookie first-round pick out of Louisiana State who immediately stepped in as a vital part of Kansas City’s offense this season — had his left leg get trapped under him and had to be carried off the field with what appeared to be a serious injury to his leg and hip. The extent of Edwards-Helaire’s injury has yet to be announced, but the team said initial X-rays were negative and that he would continue to be evaluated.Xavien Howard is a takeaway. He has tough competition, but Miami’s Howard should get a great deal of consideration for the N.F.L.’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. Howard, a 27-year-old cornerback, forced a fumble in Miami’s 22-12 victory over New England. The loss eliminated the Patriots from playoff contention. Howard also had a fumble recovery for a touchdown that was called back because another player had stepped out of bounds before touching the ball. With nine interceptions this season, plus Sunday’s forced fumble, Howard has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games. He is a huge reason the Dolphins have shocked the N.F.L. with a record of 9-5.Howard’s competition for the award includes Aaron Donald of the Rams — a two-time winner — and T.J. Watt of the Steelers. But Howard’s case would get a huge exclamation point with one more interception, as he would be the first player since 2007 to have 10 in a season.Houston’s Keke Coutee got incredibly close to punching the ball into the end zone late in the game, but Indianapolis forced a fumble and walked away with a 27-20 victory.Credit…Zach Bolinger/Associated PressYou have to watch until the end of every Texans-Colts game. Even in a down season for Houston, the A.F.C. South rivalry between the Texans and the Indianapolis Colts has provided two extremely memorable games. Two weeks ago, Houston appeared to be on the verge of taking the lead in the final two minutes when a bad snap led to a fumble and allowed Indianapolis to run out the clock. Sunday’s game was just as wild, with the Colts, clinging to a 27-20 lead in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to get into the red zone. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson connected with Keke Coutee, who stretched forward at the Colts’ 2-yard line only to fumble the ball away, handing yet another win to Indianapolis.The victory allowed the Colts to keep pace with Tennessee in the A.F.C. South. It was the 14th consecutive regular-season game between Indianapolis and Houston that was decided by 9 or fewer points.It had been more than three years since Dez Bryant was able to do his signature touchdown celebration.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressDez Bryant wasn’t done. In Baltimore’s emphatic 40-14 win over Jacksonville, one of Lamar Jackson’s three touchdown passes went to Bryant, a 32-year-old wide receiver whose N.F.L. career appeared to be over several times in the past. It had been 1,106 days since Bryant’s last touchdown, 982 days since he was released by Dallas, 772 days since he tore his Achilles’ tendon in a practice for New Orleans and 12 days since he appeared to announce his season was over on Twitter shortly after being pulled off the field during warm-ups because of a positive test for the coronavirus.Bryant has just five receptions this season, but that is five more than just about anyone expected him to get.Tampa Bay got off to a remarkably slow start on Sunday, but Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were dominant in the second half.Credit…Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesThe Buccaneers can dig out of a hole. Tampa Bay has had a problem with slow starts all season, being outscored by 32 points in first quarters. That sluggishness was taken to an extreme on Sunday when the Buccaneers went into halftime trailing Atlanta, 17-0, having gained just 60 total yards. Tampa Bay proceeded to have its players wake up on both sides of the ball, producing 356 second-half yards and walking away with a 31-27 win on the road thanks to Tom Brady’s go-ahead, 46-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Brown in the fourth quarter. Atlanta had two more chances to regain the lead, but Tampa Bay’s defense locked in, forcing a punt and a turnover on downs.The Jets can’t even tank right. With a touchdown pass by Sam Darnold, a rushing touchdown by the ageless Frank Gore — the 100th touchdown of Gore’s career — and three field goals from Sam Ficken, the Jets delivered the biggest upset of the season, beating the Los Angeles Rams, 23-20, after coming in as 17-point underdogs. Avoiding a winless season is surely a relief for the Jets’ players, but the victory, combined with Jacksonville’s 13th straight loss, has the Jaguars in line for the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft with two games remaining for both teams.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Kansas City’s Travis Kelce had eight catches for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ win over the New Orleans Saints.Credit…Chris Graythen/Getty ImagesChiefs 32, Saints 29 Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Drew Brees looked their best in this one, but Mahomes’s three touchdown passes and a Le’Veon Bell rushing touchdown put Kansas City up by enough that New Orleans’ late comeback attempt proved fruitless.Colts 27, Texans 20 Indianapolis led, 14-0, in the first quarter before this became a close game. Houston put up a strong fight, but Philip Rivers’s 5-yard touchdown pass with 1 minute 47 seconds remaining proved to be enough, barely.Titans 46, Lions 25 Tennessee was leading by only 24-18 after three quarters, but things got ridiculous from there, with Ryan Tannehill throwing two fourth-quarter touchdown passes in addition to scoring a 3-yard rushing touchdown — his second rushing touchdown of the game. The Titans lead Indianapolis in the A.F.C. South thanks to their superior record in division games.Frank Gore of the Jets scored his 100th career touchdown, and helped ice the Jets’ upset win over the Los Angeles Rams with a crucial first down late in the fourth quarter.Credit…Robert Hanashiro/USA Today Sports, via ReutersJets 23, Rams 20 It has been a horrible season for the Jets, but on this day they took care of business on offense, produced a takeaway on defense, and then held on for dear life in a game that seemed like it could slip away at any second.Buccaneers 31, Falcons 27 The stakes were not close to what they were in Tom Brady’s last huge comeback win over Atlanta — the Falcons’ collapse after leading Brady’s Patriots by 28-3 in the Super Bowl of the 2016 season is hard to top — but you’d have to imagine the Falcons, who led Tampa Bay on Sunday by 17-0 and 24-7 before losing, are looking forward to Brady retiring someday.Ravens 40, Jaguars 14 It is presumably OK to stop worrying about Baltimore’s offense after it led the team to a third consecutive win, with Lamar Jackson throwing three touchdown passes and running in another during a game that was decided by halftime.Miami’s Salvon Ahmed ran for 122 yards and a touchdown, helping the Dolphins eliminate the New England Patriots from playoff contention.Credit…Chris O’Meara/Associated PressDolphins 22, Patriots 12 Led by running backs Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida, Miami rumbled for 250 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. The Dolphins are in line for the A.F.C.’s final wild-card spot — thanks to a tiebreaker over Baltimore — and have clinched a winning season for just the second time since 2008.Seahawks 20, Footballers 15 Washington came surprisingly close to rallying from a 20-3 deficit, but the Seahawks’ much-maligned defense forced a turnover on downs in the final minute that gave Seattle a win and clinched a playoff spot.Bears 33, Vikings 27 Minnesota was playing at home, got 132 yards rushing from Dalvin Cook and 104 yards receiving from Justin Jefferson, and still lost. Credit Chicago all you want, but the Vikings’ defense needs a lot of work.Arizona’s Kyler Murray scored his 11th rushing touchdown of the season.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCardinals 33, Eagles 26 Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray were back-to-back Heisman Trophy finalists at Oklahoma — Murray won the award in 2018 — and they showed off how well their skills translate to the N.F.L. on Sunday. Philadelphia’s Hurts threw for 338 yards, Arizona’s Murray threw for 406, both of them threw three touchdown passes and both of them also ran in a score. But Murray’s Cardinals came out on top thanks to a late defensive stand.Cowboys 41, 49ers 33 Running back Ezekiel Elliott missed a game because of injury for the first time in his career, and he watched his backup, Tony Pollard, put up a strong performance: 132 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. Elliott hasn’t had 130 yards from scrimmage in a game since Week 15 of last season.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 15 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 15 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadAn empty calories matchup between the Chargers and the Raiders gets things started on Thursday in a week dominated by a potential Super Bowl preview between the Saints and the Chiefs.Drew Brees hasn’t played since Week 10. Can he come back from a rib injury to lead New Orleans in a crucial matchup against Kansas City?Credit…Tyler Kaufman/Associated PressDec. 17, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETA Thursday matchup between teams that can stretch the field. A pair of entertaining games on Saturday. A potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday. This is shaping up to be an excellent week of football, and we dug in on each team’s playoff chances using The Upshot’s playoff simulator.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 15, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-8Overall record: 102-101-5A look ahead at Week 15:Sunday’s Best GamesThursday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesKansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -3 | Total: 51.5New Orleans should be extremely happy with the job Taysom Hill has done filling in for the injured Drew Brees, but last week’s loss to Philadelphia — which knocked New Orleans out of the top spot in the N.F.C. playoff seedings — illustrated how much the team needs Brees back if it wants to compete for a championship.The Saints (10-3) are hopeful that Brees, who hasn’t played since Week 10, can make his triumphant return this week so he can lead them in a potential Super Bowl preview against the Chiefs (12-1). The Upshot gives the Chiefs a 23 percent chance of repeating as champions, while the Saints, at 16 percent, are considered the most likely winner out of the N.F.C.At their best, both teams have explosive offenses and opportunistic defenses. If the Chiefs have a fatal flaw, it is their boredom, but a road game against a top competitor should keep their attention.So where does that leave this game? It depends on Brees’s health. If he plays, and is close to 100 percent, you have to give the Saints a decent chance of an upset. Anything less than that, and a motivated Chiefs team could romp. Pick: Chiefs -3Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -6 | Total: 44.5If you were to go back to Week 6 and explain to the 5-0 Seahawks and the 1-5 Footballers that they’d be meeting in Week 15 with Washington (62 percent) having a better chance of winning its division than Seattle (39 percent), few would believe you. But the Seahawks (9-4) have leveled out, and were caught from behind by the Rams in the N.F.C. West, while the Footballers (6-7) have improved by leaps and bounds since installing Alex Smith at quarterback and are alone in first atop the N.F.C. East.Seattle has a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, regardless of whether it wins the division, and on the Seahawks’ best days — such as last Sunday, when they throttled the Jets — it’s easy to envision them as Super Bowl contenders. But Washington’s defense is on the way up, and if Smith is able to play through a calf injury, he could keep things close or engineer an upset. Pick: Footballers +6Ndamukong Suh and the Tampa Bay defense put pressure on Kirk Cousins last week. The Buccaneers finished the day with six sacks and 12 quarterback hits.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressTampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6 | Total: 50.5In a convincing win over Minnesota last week, the Buccaneers (8-5) showed how effective their pass rush can be in creating the disruptions necessary to win tough games. Kirk Cousins was under pressure all game, and even though the Vikings moved the ball well, they couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone. A similar script could play out against the Falcons (4-9), who are a threat in any game in which Julio Jones is active — particularly if that game is in Atlanta — but are prone to problems against Tampa Bay’s pass rush because of quarterback Matt Ryan’s lack of mobility.The Buccaneers are up to a 94 percent chance of ending their 12-season playoff drought, but the line may be too aggressive this week. Pick: Falcons +6Cleveland Browns at Giants, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Browns -4 | Total: 45.5Even with last week’s heartbreaking loss to Baltimore, the Browns (9-4) have matched the franchise’s best 13-game start since 1994, when Coach Bill Belichick led them to an 11-5 record and a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs. On the strength of its record, Cleveland has an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. While the Giants (5-8) have made a remarkable turnaround from earlier this season, and have a 25 percent chance of winning the N.F.C. East, they are overmatched in this one. Pick: Browns -4Thursday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offense hasn’t led them to a lot of wins so far, but Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen never seem more than a play away from scoring a touchdown.Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressLos Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime VideoLine: Raiders -3.5 | Total: 53The Raiders (7-6) somehow still have a 20 percent chance of getting a wild-card spot in the playoffs despite having lost three of their last four games, with the lone win coming courtesy of the Jets’ incompetence. Now they face the Chargers (4-9), who have a far worse record but a similar ability to alternate between thrilling and terrible.Both teams are loaded on offense, and while neither has had a good season defensively, they both feature defensive players who can make game-changing plays, like Joey Bosa of the Chargers and Maxx Crosby of the Raiders.Last week, the Falcons’ social media team poked fun at the similarities between Atlanta and Los Angeles with a play on a Spider-Man meme, and the same post could be recycled by the Raiders’ social team this week. But if the Chargers can build on last week’s solid ending, they will take a huge step in their rebuilding process. Pick: Chargers +3.5Saturday’s MatchupsGreen Bay’s Davante Adams is leading the N.F.L. in receiving touchdowns and receiving yards per game. With three regular-season games remaining, he is on a pace for career highs in every major receiving category.Credit…Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesCarolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Packers -8.5 | Total: 51.5Carolina’s defense just got shredded by Denver’s Drew Lock, so it’s hard to imagine the pain Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (10-3) could inflict on the Panthers (4-9) if they were to go all-out. After New Orleans’s loss last week, Green Bay, which had already clinched the N.F.C. North, is in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye. This game has the potential to be a trap, with the Packers looking ahead to a tougher matchup in Week 16 against Tennessee, but Rodgers has been locked in and may trail only Patrick Mahomes in the race for league most valuable player. Pick: Packers -8.5Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 50It’s hard to know how the Broncos (5-8) will play from week to week, but a road game in Denver is tough for any opponent, even one as good as the Bills (10-3). Add that the Bills can relax a little considering their 98 percent chance of winning the A.F.C. East (but just a 1 percent chance at a first-round bye), and this game could be closer than oddsmakers are predicting. Pick: Broncos +6.5Sunday’s Other GamesQuarterback Lamar Jackson and cornerback Marlon Humphrey sprinted onto the field to celebrate with kicker Justin Tucker last week after Tucker won the game for Baltimore with a 55-yard field goal.Credit…Kirk Irwin/Associated PressJacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Ravens -14 | Total: 47.5There were so many jokes. Lamar Jackson engineered one of the wildest wins in recent N.F.L. history, completing a 44-yard touchdown to Marquise Brown on fourth-and-5 with less than two minutes left in the game, then watching Cleveland tie the score, and then taking the Ravens far enough for Justin Tucker to kick a game-winning, 55-yard field goal. But all anyone wanted to talk about was Jackson’s brief absence and how it looked as if he might have taken a bathroom break.Laugh all you want — Jackson swears he was receiving fluids to alleviate cramping — but the win was a welcome change in what had been a difficult period for the Ravens (8-5). Jackson finally looked like himself, and the Ravens, with a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs, no longer seemed like a team in peril.This game does not figure to be nearly as entertaining. The Jaguars (1-12) haven’t won a game since Week 1, and struggle on both sides of the ball. Having Baltimore as a two-touchdown favorite when you consider the team’s recent defensive struggles seems like a bit too much. Pick: Jaguars +14Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -7 | Total: 52.5In most years, this would be a key A.F.C. South matchup, but the Texans (4-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention and the Colts (9-4) have an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 36 percent chance of winning their division. Houston’s Deshaun Watson will be the best player on the field, but the Texans have done a shameful job of keeping talent around him. Indianapolis, on the other hand, made crucial personnel moves in the off-season that have taken the team from mediocre to top 10 in offense and defense. Pick: Colts -7Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -10.5 | Total: 51.5There are situations in which the Lions (5-8) could hold their own against the Titans (9-4), but most of them involve locking Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in a well-guarded room and insisting nobody knows where he is. Barring high jinks, Detroit seems remarkably overmatched, especially if Matthew Stafford misses the game with the rib injury he sustained last week. Tennessee is in a tough fight with Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South crown, and has a 64 percent chance of holding off the Colts, so the Titans certainly have motivation to keep winning. Pick: Titans -10.5Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 46Both teams are on the outside looking in, but the Bears (6-7) and the Vikings (6-7) are still alive, and both have at least a 20 percent chance of a playoff spot despite Chicago’s recent struggles and Minnesota’s rough start. Assuming the Bears’ offensive resurgence last week was more than a blip would probably be generous, but they certainly have looked their best with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Even accounting for that, Minnesota should be fine, provided the team gives quarterback Kirk Cousins more time to work than he had in a loss to Tampa Bay. Pick: Vikings -3Odell who? Miami’s Xavien Howard stepped in front of Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill to make an incredible one-handed interception last week. Credit…Mark Brown/Getty ImagesNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -2.5 | Total: 41.5The Patriots (6-7) have missed the playoffs just twice since 2001, but even with a recent hot streak they are down to a 4 percent chance at qualifying this year, and that number will drop to zero with a loss to the Dolphins (8-5), who have a 43 percent chance at a wild card. The tables appear to have turned in this rivalry, with New England being the scrappy underdog that could spoil things for the seemingly superior team. Miami’s style of play doesn’t lead to many mistakes, so unless Coach Bill Belichick has something up his sleeve, the Patriots can start making vacation plans for early January. Pick: Dolphins -2.5Jets at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -17 | Total: 44Sam Darnold feels like the Darkest Timeline version of Jared Goff. Instead of developing under the tutelage of an era-defining offensive genius like Coach Sean McVay, Darnold has been saddled with Coach Adam Gase, and the Jets (0-13) seem to have little chance of avoiding a winless season. The talent imbalance in this game — reflected accurately in the point spread — is extreme, and a win for Los Angeles (9-4) should help the team increase its 60 percent chance of winning the competitive N.F.C. West. A 17-point spread is absurd, but so are the Jets. Pick: Rams -17San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., CBSLine: 49ers -2.5 | Total: 45When the schedule came out, this was supposed to showcase Jimmy Garoppolo leading the defending N.F.C. champions into Dak Prescott’s house to rekindle a classic rivalry. Backup quarterback Nick Mullens facing off against Andy Dalton doesn’t really live up to that advanced billing. Technically, neither team has been eliminated from playoff contention, with the 49ers (5-8) having a 9 percent chance at a wild-card spot and the Cowboys (4-9) having a 1 percent chance of winning the N.F.C. East. With San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert uncertain to play and wide receiver Deebo Samuel expected to be out, the Cowboys have a decent chance at a second straight win. Pick: Cowboys +2.5Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -6.5 | Total: 49.5Oklahoma Coach Lincoln Riley will love this one. Kyler Murray of the Cardinals (7-6) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2017 and won the Heisman Trophy in 2018. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (4-8-1) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2019 and was a Heisman finalist. Hurts’s promotion to starting quarterback for Philadelphia last week set up this matchup between two of Riley’s star pupils, and while the over-under on this game isn’t particularly high, you can expect plenty of highlight reel plays. Hurts has a chance to keep following in Murray’s formidable footsteps, but right now Murray is a more complete player and the Cardinals are a better team. With Arizona’s chance at a wild card around 50 percent, the team should be motivated to win at home. Pick: Cardinals -6.5Monday’s MatchupMike Hilton contributed an interception for Pittsburgh last week, but injuries to that team’s defense have helped lead to two straight losses.Credit…Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressPittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Steelers -11.5 | Total: 40.5Be it injuries, an offensive slump or regression to the mean, the Steelers (11-2) went from 11 straight wins to two consecutive losses. There was a sense, particularly toward the end of the win streak, that Pittsburgh was overrated, but the shift in circumstances has been extreme, especially when you consider it has dropped to the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., with just an 11 percent chance of overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, according to The Upshot.The Bengals (2-10-1), who have been eliminated from playoff contention, are likely to bear the brunt of Pittsburgh’s frustration. It is not that a blowout win over a bad, injury-riddled team would do much for the Steelers’ fortunes, but it might help them wash away the bad taste in their mouths from the last few weeks.There should be no surprises in this one, even if the point spread is a bit large for a team that is struggling offensively. Pick: Bengals +11.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Dolphins -2.5, for example, means that Miami must beat New England by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 14: What We Learned

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 14 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Chiefs did not need perfection to win, the Bears’ losing streak finally ended and the N.F.C. East remained wide open.Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes was able to recover this fumble, but his day included three interceptions and a 30-yard sack. He also threw for 393 yards and won.Credit…Wilfredo Lee/Associated PressDec. 13, 2020Updated 9:10 p.m. ETMost of the favored teams won on Sunday, but there was still a little drama, including a mistake-filled performance by the leading candidate for the Most Valuable Player Award, an unbelievably bad day for a veteran kicker and an upset led by a rookie quarterback making his first start.Here’s what we learned:[embedded content]The Chiefs are not fair. Coming into the day, Patrick Mahomes appeared locked in for the second M.V.P. Award of his career and had been intercepted just twice in 463 passing attempts. The Miami Dolphins’ opportunistic defense had him flustered for much of the day, picking him off three times in 34 attempts. On top of that, Miami made Mahomes look foolish on a rambling play in which he repeatedly retreated before being sacked for a 30-yard loss. The Dolphins picked up a fourth takeaway on a fumble by Mecole Hardman. And Tua Tagovailoa had the first 300-yard passing game of his career.Despite all that, Miami lost, 33-27. And it didn’t feel that close.The win improved Kansas City to 12-1, and the Chiefs, who clinched the A.F.C. West, have a good chance to secure the A.F.C.’s only first-round bye in the playoffs. Miami dropped to 8-5, but is still a strong contender for a wild-card spot.Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts threw for 167 yards and a touchdown in a win over New Orleans while rushing for 106 yards.Credit…Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Eagles have a new quarterback. No player had topped 100 yards rushing in a game against New Orleans since Nov. 19, 2017 — a span of 56 games — but thanks to a new-look Eagles offense led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, two players surpassed that mark on Sunday. Hurts showed enough skill as a passer to keep the Saints’ defense honest — his 15-yard touchdown pass to Alshon Jeffery in the first quarter was a thing of beauty — and that allowed Miles Sanders to rush for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts carried 18 times for 106 yards, joining Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson as the only quarterbacks to rush for 100 or more yards in their first N.F.L. start.In five seasons under Coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 in games not started by Carson Wentz (including the playoffs) and 35-33-1 with Wentz starting.The N.F.C. East is far from decided. The Giants’ four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a 26-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. That result, combined with wins by Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas, kept things interesting in the N.F.C. East, which is making up for its lack of quality by having all four teams in the division race with three games remaining. The Footballers should be in the driver’s seat after improving to 6-7, but that will depend on the health of quarterback Alex Smith, who reinjured the leg that kept him out for nearly two years. The severity of Smith’s injury was not immediately announced.Minnesota’s Dan Bailey was having a terrific season before a brutal two-game stretch in which he has missed four field-goal attempts and three extra points.Credit…Kim Klement/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Vikings might need a new kicker. While his missed kicks would not have provided enough points to give Minnesota a win on the road, it was hard not to point a finger at Dan Bailey in his team’s 26-14 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bailey missed an extra-point attempt in the first quarter and proceeded to miss field-goal attempts of 36, 54 and 46 yards, with each sailing wide right. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bailey is the first player to miss three field-goal attempts and an extra point, without a make of any kind, since Washington’s John Aveni in 1961. Bailey also missed two extra points and a 51-yard field-goal attempt last week, making him 1 of 4 on extra points and 2 of 6 on field goals in a two-week period after having started the season 26 of 27 on extra points and 10 of 12 on field goals.With Arizona and Chicago winning, Minnesota (6-7) complicated its wild-card hopes. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, improved to 8-5, and is on its way to its first playoff appearance since 2007.Eighty of David Montgomery’s 113 yards rushing came on one run, but that worked out just fine for Chicago in a win over the Houston Texans.Credit…Stacy Revere/Getty ImagesThe Bears can still make the playoffs — yes, the Chicago Bears. After a 5-1 start, Chicago turned into a laughingstock with six consecutive losses. But the Bears dominated Houston in every way on Sunday and came away with a 36-7 win in which several unlikely things happened. Among them: Mitchell Trubisky outplayed Houston’s Deshaun Watson; running back David Montgomery had his most productive game in nearly a year, rumbling for 113 yards (with 80 of them on a single, electrifying run); and the Bears’ defense sacked Watson seven times, once for a safety. Chicago had more rushing and passing yards, and fewer turnovers, than the Texans. And the win managed to keep the Bears very much alive in the race for the N.F.C.’s third wild card.Derrick Henry has an N.F.L.-record four career games with 200 or more rushing yards and two or more touchdowns. Two of the games have come against Jacksonville.Credit…Stephen B. Morton/Associated PressDerrick Henry stands alone. After a 215-yard performance in Tennessee’s 31-10 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, Henry has four career games with 200 or more rushing yards and two or more touchdowns, breaking a tie he held with Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson, each of whom is in the Hall of Fame. Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,532 yards rushing this season — just 8 short of the total he led the N.F.L. with last year — and he has run for 100 or more yards in his last nine road games, one short of Sanders’s N.F.L. record.Henry was so dominant that you’d hardly notice that Ryan Tannehill passed for 212 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was an incredible 37-yarder in which A.J. Brown corralled the ball with just his right hand.Green Bay may sneak into a first-round bye. Most of the talk in the N.F.C. this season has centered on New Orleans and Seattle, but a Packers win over Detroit on Sunday, combined with a Saints loss — and some help from a head-to-head tiebreaker, thanks to Green Bay’s Week 3 win over New Orleans — vaulted the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the conference with three games remaining. Green Bay controls its own destiny as far as a first-round bye is concerned, and the Packers will close their season with winnable games against Carolina, Tennessee (in Green Bay) and Chicago.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Colts 44, Raiders 27 There were so many things you could focus on in this convincing Indianapolis victory: Philip Rivers’s two touchdown passes; Jonathan Taylor’s career-high 150 yards rushing (and two touchdowns); or Khari Willis’s 50-yard pick-6. But when you factor in the degree of difficulty, the highlight to remember is Kenny Moore’s one-handed interception in the end zone in the second quarter.Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27 It looked like it could be a long day for Kansas City when the Chiefs fell behind by 10-0 in the second quarter, but thanks to touchdown drives of 75 and 74 yards, the Chiefs led at halftime, and never trailed again.Titans 31, Jaguars 10 Jacksonville has lost 12 consecutive games — one short of the franchise record — and a switch at quarterback to Gardner Minshew in the second half led to a quick touchdown, but that wasn’t nearly enough to make this game competitive.Tampa Bay’s defense produced six sacks and 12 quarterback hits, giving Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins almost no time to work.Credit…Alex Menendez/Associated PressBuccaneers 26, Vikings 14 Tampa Bay had the ball for less than 21 of the game’s 48 minutes, and while Minnesota had the game’s leading passer, leading rusher and leading receiver, the Buccaneers walked away with a fairly easy victory thanks largely to mistakes forced by the team’s terrific pass rush.Packers 31, Lions 24 Aaron Rodgers had 290 yards passing, three touchdowns and only seven incompletions — a typical day for him at this point — and Green Bay clinched the N.F.C. North. Of larger concern for Detroit than the loss was an injury sustained by quarterback Matthew Stafford in which he took a hard hit by Green Bay’s Kenny Clark at the end of a run and appeared to hurt his ribs.Eagles 24, Saints 21 Taysom Hill passed for a career-high 291 yards, but he also threw an interception and lost a fumble. The loss broke a streak of eight consecutive wins by backup quarterbacks for New Orleans.Jamal Adams has already set the N.F.L.’s single-season record for sacks by a defensive back in just nine games with the Seahawks. Credit…Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports, via ReutersSeahawks 40, Jets 3 Last week felt like the bottom for the Jets, but the team’s former star safety, Jamal Adams, was credited with a sack of Sam Darnold in the second quarter, giving him the N.F.L.’s single-season record for sacks by a defensive back with 8.5. Adams only needed nine games to break Adrian Wilson’s record of eight, which was set over the course of 16 games in 2005. Rubbing some salt in the Jets’ wounds, the team’s former quarterback, Geno Smith, came on in relief of Russell Wilson for mop-up duty at the end of the blowout. The Jets are 0-13.Footballers 23, 49ers 15 A lot of things went wrong for Washington in this game, but the rookie defensive end Chase Young put on a show with six tackles, a sack, two passes defended, two quarterback hits and a 47-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown.Cardinals 26, Giants 7 Arizona’s Haason Reddick became the 16th player to record five or more sacks in a game (since the statistic became official in 1982), leading an all-out assault in which the Cardinals produced eight sacks and 11 quarterback hits. Reddick, who came into the day with only 12.5 sacks in 60 career games, also forced three fumbles.Justin Herbert will be credited with a game-winning drive and Michael Badgley with a game-winning field goal, but it was this interception by Michael Davis that won the game for Los Angeles.Credit…Ashley Landis/Associated PressChargers 20, Falcons 17 It looked like the Chargers were throwing away yet another potential win when Justin Herbert was intercepted with less than a minute remaining. But Michael Davis stole momentum right back for Los Angeles by intercepting a Matt Ryan pass, and Herbert was able to get his team close enough for Michael Badgley to win the game with a 43-yard field goal as time expired.Bears 36, Texans 7 Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has taken his lumps over the last few years — largely as a result of his being drafted ahead of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson — but he had a terrific game against Watson’s Texans, completing 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns.Aldon Smith of the Cowboys returned a fumble 78 yards for a touchdown.Credit…Emilee Chinn/Associated PressCowboys 30, Bengals 7 In his return to Cincinnati, Andy Dalton was hardly perfect, but he did enough to beat the lowly Bengals, tossing two touchdown passes without committing a turnover. Aldon Smith, a defensive end who missed four seasons because of off-field issues, contributed to the scoring with his first career touchdown.Broncos 32, Panthers 27 A lot went right for Denver in this one, with Drew Lock throwing a career-high four touchdown passes, Diontae Spencer returning a punt 83 yards for a score and the Broncos’ defense holding strong against Carolina’s comeback attempt.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL. Week 14 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 14 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Patriots and the Rams will get things started on Thursday in a week in which plenty of teams are fighting for playoff spots.This is the type of swagger a defense develops when Xavien Howard, second from left, repeatedly makes teams pay for  mistakes. But the Miami Dolphins will have their hands full against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.Credit…Doug Murray/Associated PressDec. 10, 2020Updated 12:24 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. made its way through a few weeks of odd schedules caused by coronavirus delays, and appears set for its first “normal” week in a while. Or at least the league is starting out with that plan until any virus-related adjustments are needed.The week doesn’t have a signature game to look forward to, but matchups between the Chiefs and Dolphins and the Steelers and Bills are entertaining enough, and more than a few teams should be looking to step up as they fight for spots in the expanded playoff field.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 14, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-7Overall record: 94-93-5A look ahead at Week 14:Sunday’s Best GamesThursday’s MatchupSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesKansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -7 | Total: 49.5It is nice to be the Chiefs (11-1). Kansas City let Denver stay uncomfortably close for much of last week’s game and then simply pushed the “win now” button, got a touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce, a 48-yard field goal from Harrison Butker and a win-sealing interception from Tyrann Mathieu. That it looked so easy made the rest of the game remarkably frustrating in retrospect.The Dolphins (8-4) are not on the Chiefs’ level, but they are also not a team to trifle with. Miami’s defense can make an opponent pay for its mistakes — cornerback Xavien Howard is leading the N.F.L. in interceptions (eight) and passes defended (16) — and the team’s offense is adept at chewing up clock and doing enough to score.The script for this game could mirror Kansas City’s previous game. Miami could easily stay in it for much of the game, but when the Chiefs need to score, Mahomes will make that happen. The Dolphins deserve plenty of respect, but being only 7-point underdogs to the Chiefs is its own version of respect. Pick: Chiefs -7Buffalo’s Josh Allen has stayed cool under pressure this season, and he has people respecting the Bills. Credit…Ralph Freso/Getty ImagesPittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Bills -2.5 | Total: 46.5Earlier this week, people were openly wondering if the Steelers (11-1) could go undefeated. One not entirely shocking loss to Washington later, and Pittsburgh is an underdog against the Bills (9-3). The reasons, for the loss and the betting line, are injuries on defense, which are weakening the team’s biggest strength, and a slumping offense.Buffalo is coming off a big win over San Francisco, looking like a good bet to win the A.F.C. East and making people talk about quarterback Josh Allen as an emerging superstar. Unless Pittsburgh turns it around on both sides of the ball, it may go from 11 consecutive wins to two straight losses. Pick: Bills -2.5Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 52The Buccaneers (7-5) have disappointed a bit this season. The team was expected to take a leap defensively and, with Tom Brady added to the offense, even out the kinks from the Jameis Winston era. The team has been inconsistent, rather than bad, but has lost back-to-back games by 27-24. Its surprising defensive woes may continue against the Vikings (6-6), who have plenty of their own flaws, but no problems scoring.While not a must-win game for Tampa Bay, it would take pressure off the Buccaneers in their hunt for an N.F.C. wild card to win this one at home. Pick: Vikings +6.5Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -3 | Total: 51.5The Colts (8-4) got away with one last week, taking advantage of a fumbled snap to hold on for a close win over Houston. That was nothing compared with the Raiders (7-5), who had a win gifted to them by the Jets in the closing seconds of the game. But wins are wins, and with both of these teams fighting for playoff spots, they were lucky to get them.Running back Josh Jacobs is unlikely to return from injury for Las Vegas, and Indianapolis is simply farther along in its development. The Colts should be expected to win on the road. Pick: Colts -3Thursday’s MatchupIf teams give Robert Woods of the Rams an inch, he often takes a mile. Los Angeles would bolster its chances of winning the N.F.C. West with a win over New England.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressNew England Patriots at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Rams -5 | Total: 44.5With four wins in five games — and the lone loss a fairly close game against Houston — the Patriots (6-6) may not be pretty, but they are mostly getting the job done. The team’s defense has recovered from some issues to return to a reasonable facsimile of last year’s dominant crew, and its offense lacks consistency but can keep the team in games. A road game against the Rams (8-4), however, is a real test of just how good New England can be. Los Angeles has enough offense to score against any team and a defense that can force Cam Newton into mistakes.The Rams have a 98 percent chance at qualifying for the playoffs, and hope to take advantage of Seattle’s struggles to win the N.F.C. West. That should be enough to keep them just as motivated as New England, even as the Patriots are fighting for their playoff lives. Pick: Rams -5Sunday’s Other GamesThe Cardinals have struggled recently, but Kyler Murray has thrown for 22 touchdowns and rushed for 10. Credit…Norm Hall/Getty ImagesArizona Cardinals at Giants, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -2.5 | Total: 45Fresh off a game in which they manhandled the favored Seahawks on both sides of the ball, the Giants (5-7) are underdogs at home to the Cardinals (6-6), a team that isn’t as good as the Seahawks. So it appears oddsmakers have not exactly bought in on the recent improvements for Big Blue. The skepticism is most likely a result of the uncertain status of quarterback Daniel Jones. Coach Joe Judge has said there is a chance Jones will play, but he also said that last week. Colt McCoy deserves some credit for keeping the win streak going, but the Giants’ chances in this game come down to Jones’s availability. If he plays — and is close to 100 percent — this pick would most likely be reversed. Pick: Cardinals -2.5Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -3 | Total: 43.5Both of these teams are 5-7, but they are going in different directions. The Footballers have been steadily improving on both sides of the ball, and just pulled off a shocking upset of Pittsburgh. The 49ers have mostly survived in a season destroyed by injuries, but are coming off a huge letdown loss against Buffalo in which the backup quarterback Nick Mullens’s flaws were on full display. If this were truly a home game for San Francisco, it might have played to its favor, but with the 49ers relocated to Arizona, Washington has a good chance to keep winning. Pick: Footballers +3Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -7.5 | Total: 55The Lions (5-7) showed serious offensive improvement in the first game under their interim coach, Darrell Bevell, with the caveat that their come-from-behind victory came against the reeling Bears. Detroit may find offensive success, but probably not enough to matter as its overmatched defense tries to slow down the electric Packers (9-3), who are led by Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. There is always the chance that a heavily favored team will take the opportunity to slow things down and accept a smaller win, but the Packers have not been taking any games off offensively, and Rodgers is having one of the best seasons of his career — which is extremely high praise for a two-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award. Pick: Packers -7.5Trey Hendrickson of the Saints has 10.5 sacks this season. He could add to that total against Philadelphia’s patchwork offensive line.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressNew Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7 | Total: 44People who have Alvin Kamara on their fantasy team are undoubtedly eager for Drew Brees to return from injury. Kamara has just three catches for 7 yards over his last three games, but the Saints (10-2) seem extremely content with Taysom Hill under center until Brees gets to 100 percent. That’s understandable because last week’s win over Atlanta clinched a playoff spot for New Orleans, and this week’s game against the Eagles (3-8-1) doesn’t seem like much of a challenge. The Saints have a 66 percent chance of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye, according to The Upshot, but if they want to hold on for that honor, they will probably need Brees back for a Week 15 game against Kansas City. Pick: Saints -7Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 53The Titans (8-4) are much better than the Jaguars (1-11). You don’t really need to narrow down what Tennessee is better at. Football — the Titans are better at football. That being said, Jacksonville can hold its head up high after giving Minnesota a fight last week, and will come into this game hoping to slow running back Derrick Henry. That might just lead to them getting beaten on a few deep passes, but recent history suggests the Jaguars have a decent chance of covering the spread even if they have almost no chance of winning. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Jets at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Seahawks -13.5 | Total: 47How many times has a prominent N.F.L. coach been fired over one play? That’s what happened last week when Gregg Williams, the defensive coordinator for the Jets (0-12), dialed up a cover-zero play in the game’s final seconds when his team just needed to keep Las Vegas out of the end zone from 46 yards out. The Jets sent seven pass rushers, inexplicably left a spy behind the line of scrimmage in case Derek Carr decided to scramble for a 46-yard touchdown — pause for emphasis — and had just three defensive backs in coverage. Henry Ruggs III had a touchdown before Carr even released the ball.A conspiracy theorist might suggest that Williams or Coach Adam Gase, or both, were trying to lock in the No. 1 pick in the draft, but that falls apart when you consider it was exactly the type of galaxy brain decision the overly aggressive Williams is known for. His firing the next day seemed to confirm it was simply a brutal call, and nothing more than that.So now the Jets have four games to eke out a win in hopes of avoiding 0-16. Their quest begins on the road in Seattle as two-touchdown underdogs against the Seahawks (8-4). Seattle is struggling too much to buy in on such a large point spread, but the Seahawks have plenty of playoff-related motivation to win, so there shouldn’t be any surprises. Pick: Jets +13.5Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -3.5 | Total: 46.5A lot of teams pack things in when their record goes sideways, but the Broncos (4-8) and the Panthers (4-8) have kept fighting all season, making their opponents work hard to beat them. Imagining Denver’s defense if linebacker Von Miller were healthy, or Carolina’s offense with fewer injuries, makes it easy to be enthusiastic about both teams heading into next season. For now, they are both a little too flawed to matter, but there is every reason to believe a game between them should be entertaining. Pick: Panthers -3.5Atlanta’s Julio Jones was not able to haul in this pass, but he is so talented you probably thought he did. Credit…Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution, via Associated PressAtlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -2.5 | Total: 49.5This game should have a playground feel to it, as both offenses are more than capable of airing the ball out, and neither defense puts up much resistance. Justin Herbert, a rookie, has the Chargers (3-9) ranked fourth in the N.F.L. in passing. The veteran Matt Ryan has the Falcons (4-8) ranked seventh in spite of some injuries to his receivers this season. It is a safe bet that a group of talented pass-catchers that includes Keenan Allen and Mike Williams (Los Angeles) and Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (Atlanta) will produce more than a few highlight-reel-worthy plays. While Los Angeles could end up struggling for a second consecutive week should left tackle Sam Tevi be out, this could easily come down to which team has the ball last. Pick: Chargers +2.5Houston Texans at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Texans -2 | Total: 44.5It had seemed like wide receiver Will Fuller V’s suspension would devastate Houston’s offense, but the Texans (4-8) were a fumbled snap away from pulling off a huge upset of the Colts last week thanks in large part to the emergence of Keke Coutee, who put up a career-best 141 yards receiving after coming into the day with 38 yards for the season. Houston showed enough to be favored on the road against a team with a superior record, though that probably has more to do with Chicago’s six-game losing streak than it does with the Texans’ offense.Of the 242 teams to start a season 5-1 from 1920 to 2019, only four ended up with a losing record: the 1926 Chicago Cardinals (5-6-1), the 1986 Atlanta Falcons (7-8-1), the 1995 St. Louis Rams (7-9) and the 2008 Buffalo Bills (7-9). The Bears (5-7) are well on their way to setting a new mark for futility in that group of fast-starting teams. Pick: Texans -2Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -3.5 | Total: 43.5Cincinnati has held its opponent to 20 or fewer points in each of the last three games, which is a fairly shocking turnaround for a defense that struggled greatly earlier in the season. Whether that is improvement or indifference from opponents who know they will beat the Bengals (2-9-1), regardless, is hard to say, but with quarterback Joe Burrow out for the season and Cincinnati one of four teams that is already eliminated from playoff contention, there is no real incentive to win. The Cowboys (3-9), meanwhile, have only a 2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Upshot, but have enough offense to give that recently improved Bengals defense a workout. Pick: Cowboys -3.5Monday’s MatchupWith Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Cleveland Browns are one of the few teams that can keep up in a run-heavy matchup against Baltimore.Credit…Ron Schwane/Associated PressBaltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Ravens -1 | Total: 44.5It should be a chilly night in Cleveland, and if a recent stretch of home games for the Browns (9-3) was any indication, the weather will lead to a far more conservative approach than the one the team employed to run up 38 first-half points against Tennessee last week. Since Lamar Jackson of the Ravens (7-5) has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games, this one should be decided on the ground. In a surprise compared with recent seasons, that would, at least on paper, favor Cleveland on both sides of the ball. But there is a nagging feeling that Baltimore is a quality team that has underperformed while the Browns have simply benefited from a light schedule. This game could help sort out if that is true. Pick: Ravens -1How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Bills -2.5, for example, means that Buffalo must beat Pittsburgh by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Ray Perkins, Coach at Alabama and in the N.F.L., Dies at 79

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyRay Perkins, Coach at Alabama and in the N.F.L., Dies at 79With the Crimson Tide, he had a tough act to follow, Bear Bryant, but he enjoyed some success. He didn’t fare so well with the Giants and the Buccaneers.Ray Perkins coaching Alabama in the 1980s. He took over after Bear Bryant,  his mentor, retired, and he remained in Tuscaloosa for four years before returning to the N.F.L.Credit…Al Messerschmidt/Associated PressDec. 9, 2020, 6:39 p.m. ETRay Perkins, who spent nearly four decades as a college and N.F.L. coach and was best known for succeeding Paul “Bear” Bryant at the University of Alabama, his alma mater, died on Wednesday at his home in Tuscaloosa, Ala. He was 79.His death was confirmed by his daughter Rachael Perkins, who did not specify the cause but said he had struggled with heart problems in recent years.A hard-driving coach in the mold of Bryant, his mentor, Perkins did not enjoy as much success as a coach as he did as a player, when he won championships with the Crimson Tide and later with Baltimore Colts. Though he spent many years on winning teams as a positions coach and offensive coordinator, he had a losing record in his eight years as an N.F.L. head coach, with his teams qualifying for the postseason just once.Perkins with the Giants quarterback Phil Simms in 1981. During his tenure as head coach in New York, he hired the future head coaches Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel and Bill Parcells, who succeeded him.Credit…Ray Stubblebine/Associated PressHis first stint as a head coach, with the New York Giants, was not an overwhelming success. He was 23-34 in four seasons, including a 9-7 record in 1981, when the team made the playoffs. But Perkins developed several players who formed the core of the Giants’ 1986 Super Bowl-winning team, including quarterback Phil Simms and linebackers Harry Carson and Lawrence Taylor. He also hired the future head coaches Bill Belichick, Romeo Crennel and Bill Parcells, who succeeded him in 1983.Perkins returned to Alabama that year to take over for Bryant. In his four years in Tuscaloosa, his teams won two-thirds of their regular-season games and three bowl games.But compared with Bryant, who turned the Crimson Tide into a national powerhouse during his quarter-century there, Perkins had only middling success at Alabama. His teams were never in contention for a national title, finishing in the top 10 only once. In his second season, Alabama finished 5-6; it was the team’s first losing season since 1957, the year before Bryant took over the program.Perkins left Alabama after four years and returned to the N.F.L. in 1987, this time to coach the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the additional title of vice president of player personnel, he had an even harder time winning games, going 19-41 as head coach in four seasons in Tampa.Perkins spent one losing season coaching at Arkansas State and seven years as an offensive coordinator and position coach with the New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns. After more than a decade away from the sidelines, he resumed coaching in 2012 at a junior college and then at Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Miss., near where he had grown up. He fully retired from football in 2017.Through his long career, Perkins earned a reputation as a workaholic, studying film of practices and games often at the expense of his family.“I don’t remember taking a vacation,” he told The New York Times in 1979, when he took over the Giants. Then he remembered one: “There was a week once in Toledo Bend — that’s in a corner of Louisiana and Texas.”Walter Ray Perkins was born on Nov. 6, 1941, in tiny Mount Olive, Miss. — “the middle of nowhere,” he once said — the second of three children born to Woodrow and Emogene (Lingle) Perkins. His father was a carpenter, and his mother was a homemaker. When Ray was 3 the family moved to to Petal, Miss., a suburb of Hattiesburg.He played running back on the football team at Petal High School and won a scholarship to Alabama. Bryant moved him to wide receiver after a serious head injury during his freshman season required surgery, with doctors drilling three holes in his skull to relieve the pressure. Perkins become a cornerstone of Alabama’s offense between 1964 and 1966, the heyday of the tough-nosed Bryant’s tenure there.Perkins with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Steve DeBerg in 1987. Perkins coached the Buccaneers for four season while also serving as vice president of player personnel. Credit…Kathy Willens/Associated PressPerkins was a teammate of the future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Joe Namath and Ken Stabler, and was chosen as an All-American in 1966. Alabama won the Southeastern Conference title in all three of Perkins’s seasons and was national champion in 1964 and 1965.While his college statistics — 63 catches for 908 yards and 9 touchdowns — were modest compared with those of players in today’s pass-first offenses, Perkins, in the reflective glow of having played at Alabama, was picked in the seventh round of the N.F.L. draft by the Baltimore Colts, who were in the midst of their own heyday, led by the star quarterback Johnny Unitas and Coach Don Shula (who died in May).Unitas was wary of young receivers, but he took an immediate shine to Perkins, who had good speed and an intuitive grasp of the game.“I could tell right away when he came to the team that he looked like he had been playing for four or five years in the N.F.L.,” said Upton Bell, the Colts’ director of player personnel in those years. “Forget Shula, you had to please Unitas, and he stepped right in.”Perkins played five seasons at wide receiver and appeared in eight playoff games, including Super Bowl V, when the Colts beat the Dallas Cowboys, 16-13, for their lone title in Baltimore.After several knee surgeries, Perkins finished his N.F.L. career in 1971 with 93 catches for 1,538 yards and 11 touchdowns.Perkins’s first marriage ended in divorce. In addition to his daughter Rachael, from his second marriage, he is survived by his second wife, Lisa Perkins; two sons from his first marriage, Martin Anthony Perkins, known as Tony, and Michael Ray Perkins, who works for the Jacksonville Jaguars of the N.F.L.; another daughter from his second marriage, Shelby Perkins; a sister, Susan Thornton; and two grandchildren. Another sister, Shirley Sellers, died in 2007.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Brady Puts Up a Fight, but It’s Mahomes and the Chiefs’ Day

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      Tom Brady floundered for most of Sunday’s game against Kansas City’s incandescent quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. If the game was seen by some as a chance for a passing of the torch from one quarterback to another, from an N.F.L. legend to his heir apparent, that torch — if passed by Brady at least — very likely would have been intercepted.But Brady, after being picked off on successive drives late in the third quarter, rallied his still maturing Buccaneers in the fourth quarter with two touchdown passes that pulled Tampa Bay to within 3 points of the high-flying Chiefs. At that moment, it seemed as if the latest of Brady’s famed comebacks might have been in the offing.But the inconsistent Buccaneers are as far from the old days of Brady’s New England Patriots dynasty as Tampa is from Foxborough, Mass.Just as relevant, it was the unrivaled Mahomes, who each season takes his game to another level, in the opposing huddle. He coolly led the visiting Chiefs to three routine first downs in the closing minutes to cinch an entertaining 27-24 victory.Fittingly, the last Kansas City dagger was an 8-yard pass from Mahomes to Tyreek Hill, who terrorized Tampa Bay with 13 receptions for 269 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, after the game, in a nod to just how high the expectations are for the defending N.F.L. champion Chiefs (10-1), they welcomed talk about how Sunday’s victory at Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium — site of this season’s Super Bowl — might help make it easier to win back-to-back championships.“Man, I hope so, and we did get a familiarity with the stadium, the hotel, the city,” said Mahomes, who passed for 359 yards in the first half and added another 103 yards in the second. “If you get to the Super Bowl, you know you’ve been in this place and beat a good team.”Kansas City Coach Andy Reid was not making any Super Bowl comparisons, but he did compliment his team for a second consecutive road victory against a playoff contender. On Nov. 22, the Chiefs vanquished the Las Vegas Raiders, the only team that has beaten Kansas City in 2020.“It was a step forward for our guys, particularly after an emotional game like the Raiders game,” Reid said. “You’ve got to be able to do those things.”Indeed, the game felt a bit like a meaningful crossroads for both teams. The Chiefs made it plain that they are N.F.L. elite of the highest order, in a class that few of their rivals can match, especially offensively.Or as Mahomes said Sunday, “We have so many weapons it’s hard for a team to take them all away.”As for Tampa Bay (7-5), early this season, their defense was a strength against the run and the pass, but opponents have since found ways to move the ball through the air. In a pass-happy league, it will be tough for the Buccaneers to make an extended playoff run — if they make the playoffs — without more cohesive play by their secondary.Tampa Bay Coach Bruce Arians, however, wondered if his team would see any quarterback as gifted as Mahomes, unless it is in the Super Bowl.“Very few guys I’ve ever seen in this league, or any league, can backpedal eight, nine, 10 or 11 yards in the pocket and throw a dime 25 yards down the field,” Arians said of Mahomes. “He has an unbelievable skill set. We had a lot of good rushers on him and he just keeps backpedaling away and slings it sidearm or whatever, and he can read the defense as he does it, which makes him even more explosive. It’s very frustrating.”Asked if Mahomes might inspire Reid, 62, to extend his career, Arians joked that “Andy is going to be coaching until he’s about 80.”Tampa Bay fell behind by 17-0 in the first quarter largely because they allowed cornerback Carlton Davis, who was playing for the injured starter Jamel Dean, the Buccaneers’ fastest player, to try to defend Hill in man-to-man coverage with no help from a deep safety. Hill first caught a 75-yard touchdown pass down the right sideline, and on the Chiefs next possession he ran away from Davis for a 44-yard touchdown reception. Hill’s 20-yard touchdown catch midway through the third quarter put Kansas City ahead, 27-10.“We don’t get a lot of that,” Mahomes said of the single coverage Hill received, “especially with that guy and his ability. And when we get it, we try to take advantage of it.”Brady regained some of his old form in the final quarter by connecting with tight end Rob Gronkowski, who had six catches for 106 receiving yards. Brady, who completed 27 of 41 passes for 345 yards, then cut the Kansas City lead to 27-17 with a precisely thrown 31-yard touchdown to wide receiver Mike Evans. Evans’s second touchdown of the game, a 7-yarder, made it a 3-point game with 4 minutes 10 seconds remaining. But Mahomes twice scrambled for first downs on the Chiefs’ final drive, and boldly threw on occasion as well as Kansas City closed out its victory.Asked about his aggressiveness in the waning seconds, Reid said: “I learned a long time ago that you don’t give the ball back to Tom Brady. Don’t give him a shot.” More