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    NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

    Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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    NFL Week 14: What We Learned

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 14 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Chiefs did not need perfection to win, the Bears’ losing streak finally ended and the N.F.C. East remained wide open.Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes was able to recover this fumble, but his day included three interceptions and a 30-yard sack. He also threw for 393 yards and won.Credit…Wilfredo Lee/Associated PressDec. 13, 2020Updated 9:10 p.m. ETMost of the favored teams won on Sunday, but there was still a little drama, including a mistake-filled performance by the leading candidate for the Most Valuable Player Award, an unbelievably bad day for a veteran kicker and an upset led by a rookie quarterback making his first start.Here’s what we learned:[embedded content]The Chiefs are not fair. Coming into the day, Patrick Mahomes appeared locked in for the second M.V.P. Award of his career and had been intercepted just twice in 463 passing attempts. The Miami Dolphins’ opportunistic defense had him flustered for much of the day, picking him off three times in 34 attempts. On top of that, Miami made Mahomes look foolish on a rambling play in which he repeatedly retreated before being sacked for a 30-yard loss. The Dolphins picked up a fourth takeaway on a fumble by Mecole Hardman. And Tua Tagovailoa had the first 300-yard passing game of his career.Despite all that, Miami lost, 33-27. And it didn’t feel that close.The win improved Kansas City to 12-1, and the Chiefs, who clinched the A.F.C. West, have a good chance to secure the A.F.C.’s only first-round bye in the playoffs. Miami dropped to 8-5, but is still a strong contender for a wild-card spot.Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts threw for 167 yards and a touchdown in a win over New Orleans while rushing for 106 yards.Credit…Bill Streicher/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Eagles have a new quarterback. No player had topped 100 yards rushing in a game against New Orleans since Nov. 19, 2017 — a span of 56 games — but thanks to a new-look Eagles offense led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, two players surpassed that mark on Sunday. Hurts showed enough skill as a passer to keep the Saints’ defense honest — his 15-yard touchdown pass to Alshon Jeffery in the first quarter was a thing of beauty — and that allowed Miles Sanders to rush for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Hurts carried 18 times for 106 yards, joining Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson as the only quarterbacks to rush for 100 or more yards in their first N.F.L. start.In five seasons under Coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 in games not started by Carson Wentz (including the playoffs) and 35-33-1 with Wentz starting.The N.F.C. East is far from decided. The Giants’ four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt with a 26-7 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. That result, combined with wins by Washington, Philadelphia and Dallas, kept things interesting in the N.F.C. East, which is making up for its lack of quality by having all four teams in the division race with three games remaining. The Footballers should be in the driver’s seat after improving to 6-7, but that will depend on the health of quarterback Alex Smith, who reinjured the leg that kept him out for nearly two years. The severity of Smith’s injury was not immediately announced.Minnesota’s Dan Bailey was having a terrific season before a brutal two-game stretch in which he has missed four field-goal attempts and three extra points.Credit…Kim Klement/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Vikings might need a new kicker. While his missed kicks would not have provided enough points to give Minnesota a win on the road, it was hard not to point a finger at Dan Bailey in his team’s 26-14 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bailey missed an extra-point attempt in the first quarter and proceeded to miss field-goal attempts of 36, 54 and 46 yards, with each sailing wide right. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Bailey is the first player to miss three field-goal attempts and an extra point, without a make of any kind, since Washington’s John Aveni in 1961. Bailey also missed two extra points and a 51-yard field-goal attempt last week, making him 1 of 4 on extra points and 2 of 6 on field goals in a two-week period after having started the season 26 of 27 on extra points and 10 of 12 on field goals.With Arizona and Chicago winning, Minnesota (6-7) complicated its wild-card hopes. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, improved to 8-5, and is on its way to its first playoff appearance since 2007.Eighty of David Montgomery’s 113 yards rushing came on one run, but that worked out just fine for Chicago in a win over the Houston Texans.Credit…Stacy Revere/Getty ImagesThe Bears can still make the playoffs — yes, the Chicago Bears. After a 5-1 start, Chicago turned into a laughingstock with six consecutive losses. But the Bears dominated Houston in every way on Sunday and came away with a 36-7 win in which several unlikely things happened. Among them: Mitchell Trubisky outplayed Houston’s Deshaun Watson; running back David Montgomery had his most productive game in nearly a year, rumbling for 113 yards (with 80 of them on a single, electrifying run); and the Bears’ defense sacked Watson seven times, once for a safety. Chicago had more rushing and passing yards, and fewer turnovers, than the Texans. And the win managed to keep the Bears very much alive in the race for the N.F.C.’s third wild card.Derrick Henry has an N.F.L.-record four career games with 200 or more rushing yards and two or more touchdowns. Two of the games have come against Jacksonville.Credit…Stephen B. Morton/Associated PressDerrick Henry stands alone. After a 215-yard performance in Tennessee’s 31-10 win over Jacksonville on Sunday, Henry has four career games with 200 or more rushing yards and two or more touchdowns, breaking a tie he held with Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and LaDainian Tomlinson, each of whom is in the Hall of Fame. Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,532 yards rushing this season — just 8 short of the total he led the N.F.L. with last year — and he has run for 100 or more yards in his last nine road games, one short of Sanders’s N.F.L. record.Henry was so dominant that you’d hardly notice that Ryan Tannehill passed for 212 yards and two touchdowns, one of which was an incredible 37-yarder in which A.J. Brown corralled the ball with just his right hand.Green Bay may sneak into a first-round bye. Most of the talk in the N.F.C. this season has centered on New Orleans and Seattle, but a Packers win over Detroit on Sunday, combined with a Saints loss — and some help from a head-to-head tiebreaker, thanks to Green Bay’s Week 3 win over New Orleans — vaulted the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the conference with three games remaining. Green Bay controls its own destiny as far as a first-round bye is concerned, and the Packers will close their season with winnable games against Carolina, Tennessee (in Green Bay) and Chicago.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Colts 44, Raiders 27 There were so many things you could focus on in this convincing Indianapolis victory: Philip Rivers’s two touchdown passes; Jonathan Taylor’s career-high 150 yards rushing (and two touchdowns); or Khari Willis’s 50-yard pick-6. But when you factor in the degree of difficulty, the highlight to remember is Kenny Moore’s one-handed interception in the end zone in the second quarter.Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27 It looked like it could be a long day for Kansas City when the Chiefs fell behind by 10-0 in the second quarter, but thanks to touchdown drives of 75 and 74 yards, the Chiefs led at halftime, and never trailed again.Titans 31, Jaguars 10 Jacksonville has lost 12 consecutive games — one short of the franchise record — and a switch at quarterback to Gardner Minshew in the second half led to a quick touchdown, but that wasn’t nearly enough to make this game competitive.Tampa Bay’s defense produced six sacks and 12 quarterback hits, giving Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins almost no time to work.Credit…Alex Menendez/Associated PressBuccaneers 26, Vikings 14 Tampa Bay had the ball for less than 21 of the game’s 48 minutes, and while Minnesota had the game’s leading passer, leading rusher and leading receiver, the Buccaneers walked away with a fairly easy victory thanks largely to mistakes forced by the team’s terrific pass rush.Packers 31, Lions 24 Aaron Rodgers had 290 yards passing, three touchdowns and only seven incompletions — a typical day for him at this point — and Green Bay clinched the N.F.C. North. Of larger concern for Detroit than the loss was an injury sustained by quarterback Matthew Stafford in which he took a hard hit by Green Bay’s Kenny Clark at the end of a run and appeared to hurt his ribs.Eagles 24, Saints 21 Taysom Hill passed for a career-high 291 yards, but he also threw an interception and lost a fumble. The loss broke a streak of eight consecutive wins by backup quarterbacks for New Orleans.Jamal Adams has already set the N.F.L.’s single-season record for sacks by a defensive back in just nine games with the Seahawks. Credit…Joe Nicholson/USA Today Sports, via ReutersSeahawks 40, Jets 3 Last week felt like the bottom for the Jets, but the team’s former star safety, Jamal Adams, was credited with a sack of Sam Darnold in the second quarter, giving him the N.F.L.’s single-season record for sacks by a defensive back with 8.5. Adams only needed nine games to break Adrian Wilson’s record of eight, which was set over the course of 16 games in 2005. Rubbing some salt in the Jets’ wounds, the team’s former quarterback, Geno Smith, came on in relief of Russell Wilson for mop-up duty at the end of the blowout. The Jets are 0-13.Footballers 23, 49ers 15 A lot of things went wrong for Washington in this game, but the rookie defensive end Chase Young put on a show with six tackles, a sack, two passes defended, two quarterback hits and a 47-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown.Cardinals 26, Giants 7 Arizona’s Haason Reddick became the 16th player to record five or more sacks in a game (since the statistic became official in 1982), leading an all-out assault in which the Cardinals produced eight sacks and 11 quarterback hits. Reddick, who came into the day with only 12.5 sacks in 60 career games, also forced three fumbles.Justin Herbert will be credited with a game-winning drive and Michael Badgley with a game-winning field goal, but it was this interception by Michael Davis that won the game for Los Angeles.Credit…Ashley Landis/Associated PressChargers 20, Falcons 17 It looked like the Chargers were throwing away yet another potential win when Justin Herbert was intercepted with less than a minute remaining. But Michael Davis stole momentum right back for Los Angeles by intercepting a Matt Ryan pass, and Herbert was able to get his team close enough for Michael Badgley to win the game with a 43-yard field goal as time expired.Bears 36, Texans 7 Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has taken his lumps over the last few years — largely as a result of his being drafted ahead of Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Houston’s Deshaun Watson — but he had a terrific game against Watson’s Texans, completing 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns.Aldon Smith of the Cowboys returned a fumble 78 yards for a touchdown.Credit…Emilee Chinn/Associated PressCowboys 30, Bengals 7 In his return to Cincinnati, Andy Dalton was hardly perfect, but he did enough to beat the lowly Bengals, tossing two touchdown passes without committing a turnover. Aldon Smith, a defensive end who missed four seasons because of off-field issues, contributed to the scoring with his first career touchdown.Broncos 32, Panthers 27 A lot went right for Denver in this one, with Drew Lock throwing a career-high four touchdown passes, Diontae Spencer returning a punt 83 yards for a score and the Broncos’ defense holding strong against Carolina’s comeback attempt.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More