More stories

  • in

    NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

    Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

  • in

    NFL Quarterbacks Want Their Voices Heard

    From Aaron Rodgers to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes, quarterbacks are trying to push football’s status quo. The results have lagged behind stars’ achievements in other sports.Aaron Rodgers had a lot to get off his mind.After two years of mounting whispers over his frustration with his team, Rodgers finally laid out his grievances when he reported to Green Bay Packers training camp in July. In sweeping depth and granular detail, the franchise quarterback expounded on all the topics team executives had not asked his opinion about, from the drafting of his potential successor to the team’s letting go of one of his favorite receiver targets.“I just want to be involved in conversations that affect my ability to do my job, and it’s not all personnel, but I think I have a unique perspective being in the locker room and having been the starting quarterback here for 13 years and being here for 16 years,” Rodgers said during his July news conference.Packers management, he said, had tried sweetening his contract, but money was not his primary concern.He wanted his voice heard. The reigning M.V.P.’s standoff with the Packers represented one of the most drastic examples of a quarterback bucking the status quo, but he was not alone among players at his position who pushed for their voices to be acknowledged and for autonomy over their careers.“For every athlete, they have to calculate for themselves the value of winning and then the value of their own personal business,” said Don Yee, the agent who represents quarterbacks Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. “And the latter part of that equation, at least in my personal view, has become more and more important with each successive generation.”In a league like the N.B.A., star players routinely discuss potentially significant organizational moves with team owners and general managers. Quarterbacks operate the most crucial and iconic position in America’s most popular sport, but in the N.F.L., the team is prioritized over any one player — face of the franchise or not.In Houston, after signing Deshaun Watson to a $160 million contract extension in 2020, the Texans ostracized their quarterback through moves that included trading the All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and not consulting Watson on a replacement for the fired head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien. Watson requested a trade from the franchise before 22 sexual misconduct lawsuits were levied against him in March. (He has denied the allegations.)And in Seattle, Russell Wilson complained that he wanted more say over team personnel after absorbing the most hits of any N.F.L. quarterback through his first nine seasons.Russell Wilson signing autographs in Seattle last month. He has said he wants to “be involved” in the Seahawks’ personnel decisions.Stephen Brashear/Associated PressIn the last few years, as rallies of athlete empowerment swept up leagues like the N.B.A. and W.N.B.A. and individual sports like tennis, the N.F.L. seemingly lagged, and players are starting to take notice.“You saw a lot of those guys get involved in the social justice thing that was going on over the last year, ever since George Floyd,” said Warren Moon, a Hall of Fame quarterback who spent the bulk of his N.F.L. career in Houston. Now, he said, if N.F.L. stars don’t get the support they expect from their teams, “they’re going to voice their opinions.”Patrick Mahomes and Brady, the quarterbacks who have won the last three Super Bowls, have utilized their voices in different capacities.Mahomes, the budding face of the league as Kansas City’s do-everything quarterback, participated with a number of N.F.L. stars in a June 2020 video naming Floyd and other Black victims of violence and demanding that the league condemn racism and systemic oppression.Mahomes told Fox Sports’ “Undisputed” that he had spoken with Roger Goodell, the league’s commissioner, about recognizing Black Lives Matter. Goodell responded with a video of his own, saying the league had been wrong for not listening to players earlier — he did not mention Colin Kaepernick by name — and encouraging peaceful protest.“I do think that’s a sign of more autonomy and lack of fear,” said Leigh Steinberg, the agent who negotiated Mahomes’s $503 million contract extension in 2020 with Kansas City. “So, what forestalled players of yesteryear from expressing their opinion was a fear that somehow they might go under controversy and might run afoul of the team, right? And now they’re trying to influence the team and the league.”In 2019, Brady asked for a provision in his contract extension that would prevent the New England Patriots from placing a franchise or transition tag on him, allowing him to become a free agent if he and the team did not agree on his future. Brady ended his 20-year tenure in New England to sign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following year.Since winning his seventh Super Bowl in February, Brady criticized the league’s policies on voluntary off-season workouts and in August wrote in an Instagram post that N.F.L. players were “ignorant” about the league’s financial disparities. “The salary cap dropped by 20% and the new media deals were announced the day AFTER 2021 salary cap was set,” he wrote, referring to the league’s March negotiation of over $100 billion in media contracts.“I see him inspiring people to have some confidence in their own thoughts and ideas,” Yee said. “It may sound a bit trite, but in the football world, that’s actually quite innovative.”To Brady’s point, players today have climbed their way back to a 48.5 percent share of the league’s revenue, less than the 50 percent take reportedly in place as part of the 2006 collective bargaining agreement.Boomer Esiason, who was a player representative during the 1987 strike, said he had tried informing players of the increasing disparity between how much team owners received versus the players.“Finally, somebody by the name of Tom Brady alluded to that fact about three weeks ago, how ignorant N.F.L. players are to the amount of money that is available or should be available to them,” Esiason said. “Especially in light that the contracts are not 100 percent guaranteed. I think there is a changing landscape and Tom Brady may have changed it without even realizing that he changed it.”Tom Brady in a preseason game last month. He criticized the N.F.L.’s policies on voluntary off-season workouts.Kim Klement/USA Today Sports, via ReutersQuarterbacks have benefited the most from the increased salaries that are the result of the league’s soaring revenues. For a while, Esiason led the N.F.L. with the highest annual salary of $1.2 million. This off-season, Dak Prescott signed a contract extension with the Dallas Cowboys worth $160 million over four years, with $126 million guaranteed, after a season-ending ankle injury. In Buffalo, Josh Allen inked a six-year, $258 million extension.“You probably feel maybe less pressure to do whatever you’re told to do, and you get more courage to speak up for what you believe in and what you believe is best for the football team,” said Sage Rosenfels, a former N.F.L. journeyman quarterback.But even with the most leverage among their N.F.L. peers, quarterbacks operate within a constrained system. They rarely arrive at free agency because of the franchise and transition tags that are standard practice, and young quarterbacks are often eager to reach lucrative contract extensions, with guaranteed payouts, rather than press for the freedom to test the open market if they’re unhappy with their teams.Those gargantuan contracts further wed a quarterback to his franchise: Teams risk taking a huge salary cap hit letting go of a disgruntled passer, and front offices often can’t add free agents if the quarterback won’t agree to restructure his deal in later years.“We’re getting to a point where the investment in that position is getting closer and closer and, in some respects, exceeds the dollar investments made into athletes from other sports,” Yee said, adding that teams want to see a return on their investment.Steinberg previously represented quarterbacks like Steve Young and Troy Aikman and said those quarterbacks worked in a symbiotic fashion with their teams’ management.“What’s become enhanced is that that position is so critical that teams will search in the draft or through free agency forever and still not be able to solve their problem,” Steinberg said. “So a team that has an incumbent quarterback, over time he almost morphs into another member of the coaching staff. A player that’s been there for years and years, teams want that input. They don’t have to take all his advice, but to not listen to him, they do at their peril.”All the off-season’s smoke from quarterbacks resulted in little fire. Rodgers, Wilson and Watson are still with the franchises they had voiced frustrations about, seemingly changing little about how teams respond to players’ calls for more say-so.“I just go back to the owners,” said Dan Fouts, a Hall of Fame quarterback. “They take care of each other and they’d all like to have a great quarterback, like an Aaron Rodgers, but they’re not going to change the way they do business.”The significant quarterback deals that did occur this off-season involved behind-the-scenes maneuvering that didn’t draw headlines. Detroit dealt Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for a package that included the Rams’ incumbent quarterback, Jared Goff. Philadelphia traded Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts for a couple of draft picks.“Everyone is different for their reason for wanting to get traded, released or whatever it may be,” Stafford said. “I just tried to make sure that whenever I got to the new place, I did what I could to make it successful.”Les Snead, Los Angeles’s general manager, said he navigates cases as they come, but it’s natural for players to want their voices acknowledged.“You always have to mix it together and see what’s best for the organization and the player,” Snead said. “Sometimes the organization may think that the player is better for us here, but if he really doesn’t want to be here, then what? We’ve all been a part of somewhere where you’ve worked with someone who really didn’t want to be there. It’s kind of like a toothache. You kind of wish that energy wasn’t there.”In the age of athlete empowerment around sports, players at the N.F.L.’s most crucial position haven’t been able to advance their cause very far.Emmanuel Morgan More

  • in

    Matthew Stafford Wants His Hollywood Ending. So Do the Rams.

    After 12 seasons in Detroit, the quarterback wanted out. The Los Angeles Rams, looking to move on from Jared Goff, saw in Stafford another shot at a championship run.THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — After Matthew Stafford, the Los Angeles Rams’ new quarterback, threw three interceptions this month in a joint practice with the Las Vegas Raiders, he and his teammates remained calm. Instead of pouting or slamming his helmet, he convened with his coaches to discuss what went wrong.Les Snead, the team’s general manager, also looked relaxed as he watched from afar on a cloudy, rainy afternoon. He had orchestrated the January trade to acquire Stafford, sending the team’s starting quarterback, Jared Goff, and three draft picks, including two first-round selections, to the Detroit Lions.By adding one of the most productive quarterbacks in the N.F.L. (Stafford’s 45,109 career yards rank him fifth among active passers) but parting with the chance to draft in the first round until 2024, the team drastically raised its fans’ hopes for the immediate future. Stafford’s practice turnovers, however, had many of them expressing angst on social media. According to Snead, they included one of his children, a teenager, who texted him asking if “Stafford had a bad day.”The interest in the team makes sense. Until the trade, the Rams had risked languishing in one of the N.F.L.’s toughest divisions. Now they have a 33-year-old quarterback who asked out of the only franchise for which he had ever played for a better shot at football glory. The Rams’ window opens now.“I think Matt’s at that point in his career where he’s played a lot of football, he’s made a lot of money and we’re now at that chapter of ‘OK, let’s do something special,’” Snead said in an interview. “I think he’s looking at it like, ‘This is a good place to write my farewell chapters in this league.’”The off-season had the potential to be defined by high-profile quarterback changes. In an era in which Stafford’s peers have been emboldened to use their star power to gain leverage, either to seek trades or to influence rosters, his requested breakup with the Lions stands out for being resolved peacefully, and privately. He believes his relationship with the team’s ownership allowed the process to move smoothly.“This could’ve gone a bunch of different directions, and I’m glad it went the way it did,” Stafford said.Despite losing in the first round in all three of his playoff appearances over 12 seasons in Detroit, Stafford threw for over 4,000 yards eight times and completed 38 game-winning drives. He knew he could still produce at an elite level and wanted to compete with a contender. Detroit finished 5-11 last season. Had he stayed for 2021, Stafford would have played for his fourth head coach and third general manager. He quietly requested a trade and the Lions agreed, something he knew was not a guarantee.In training camp scrimmages, Stafford delivered impressive passes to receivers on throws with velocity and touch. Johm Mccoy/Associated Press“I have to give them a ton of credit for how they approached it,” Stafford said. “I think they knew, from 12 years of dealing with me, if I told them something, that was my word, and I knew I felt the same way about them.”Other quarterbacks who had looked for a change had different outcomes this off-season. Rumors swirled that Aaron Rodgers wanted out at Green Bay. Deshaun Watson reportedly requested a trade from Houston. Russell Wilson asked for more say in the Seattle Seahawks’ personnel decisions. His agent, though, publicly disclosed a list of teams Wilson would consider joining in a trade.When training camps opened, those quarterbacks rejoined their teams. In his circumstance, Stafford said that he wanted an open discussion with the Lions and that he was grateful they agreed with his point of view.“I wasn’t in a mode of trying to be empowered, I just wanted to be honest,” he said. “I just wanted to let them know how I was feeling, and it was really great for them to respect that and work with me on it.”Initially, it seemed unlikely that Stafford would join the Rams. They had signed Goff to a four-year contract extension worth $134 million in 2019 after he led them to a Super Bowl. But over the past two seasons, Goff regressed, throwing 29 interceptions, causing Snead and Coach Sean McVay to seek an upgrade. Stafford’s availability piqued both men’s interest.“We felt maybe it was the right time, and this might be the right place to add all of those sets of variables together at that very, very important position,” Snead said.Stafford should solve a lot of what ailed the Rams in 2020, when the team was 10-6 and lost to the Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs. They had one of the N.F.L.’s best defenses, anchored by lineman Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but the offense did not regularly threaten downfield strikes and finished with only 50 passing plays of at least 20 yards, ranking 14th.In training camp and in practices, Stafford delivered impressive passes to receivers on throws with velocity and touch. Two of the interceptions in that scrimmage against the Raiders came on tipped passes, mistakes that McVay said could be corrected as Stafford learned the new offensive system and the receivers adjusted to his timing.“He’s one of those guys that elevates everyone around him,” Rams Coach Sean McVay said of Stafford. Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press“He’s one of those guys that elevates everyone around him,” McVay said. “When things don’t go our way, I just like how even-keeled he is. He’s consistent.”Unlike other stars on less complete teams, Stafford has not issued a list of his wants or asked to weigh in on roster decisions, though McVay and Snead said they would welcome his input if he offered it.“I’m the new guy here,” Stafford said. “I’m just trying to show up and get my job right as best I can. I trust those guys and they’ve done a great job of building a program here that has a great atmosphere.”With a roster stacked for a postseason run, Stafford can focus on what lies ahead. Despite his numbers in Detroit, Stafford was selected to just one Pro Bowl. This month, he watched as his former Lions teammate Calvin Johnson was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Being in Canton, Ohio, and seeing the history around him made Stafford think about his own legacy and what kind of career ending he could write in Los Angeles.“I just want to play meaningful football and get to know these guys as well as I can and play for as long as I can here,” Stafford said. More

  • in

    N.F.L. Quarterbacks on the Move: Wentz. Watson? Darnold?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Quarterbacks on the Move: a GuideCarson Wentz is a Colt, Jared Goff is a Lion and Deshaun Watson wants to be anything but a Texan. A look at the deals that have been done, and a few more that might be next.Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff will be swapping uniforms.Credit…Paul Sancya/Associated PressFeb. 19, 2021, 10:57 a.m. ETIt is not two weeks since the Super Bowl, and already three quarterbacks — including the first and second picks in the 2016 draft — have been traded. More movement, possibly much more, will follow. Frustrated stars, well-priced veterans, young starters — all could be on the move, as this emerging era of quarterback empowerment collides with a salary-cap crunch that compels teams to assess their resources at the sport’s most critical position.All deals cannot be made official until the new league year begins on March 17, but here’s a partial list of quarterbacks who will be — or might be — wearing new uniforms when the 2021 season opens next fall.Quarterbacks Who Have Already Been TradedJared Goff, Rams to Lions Whether Goff, 26, revitalizes his career with Dan Campbell’s merry band of kneecap biters in Detroit depends, in part, on his aptitude for doing something with the Lions that he did not do with the Rams: hold on to the ball. Considering Campbell’s apparent penchant for cannibalism — beyond vowing to bite off opponents’ kneecaps, he also stated at his introductory news conference that the Lions would “take another hunk out of you” — Goff would be wise not to approach the 17 turnovers he committed last season.Matthew Stafford, Lions to Rams After 12 seasons without a postseason victory in Detroit, where he became the Lions’ franchise leader in passing yards, completions and touchdowns, Stafford will join the Rams, a team that acquired him to win far more than just one playoff game. Backed by a ferocious defense, Stafford, 33, should allow Coach Sean McVay to unbridle a downfield passing game that rarely materialized with Goff.From deep in the archives: Carson Wentz smiling in an Eagles jersey.Credit…Michael Ainsworth/Associated PressCarson Wentz, Eagles to Colts Wentz was done with the Eagles, and the Eagles were done with him, so their ability to turn one of the N.F.L.’s worst quarterbacks last season (and his onerous contract) into a decent return from Indianapolis — a third-round pick in April and a second-rounder in 2022 that could turn into a first — is a small, if pyrrhic, victory. But his departure from Philadelphia still signifies a failure for an organization that 20 months ago rewarded him with the most guaranteed money (more than $107 million) in league history at the time. The Colts are betting that Wentz will be invigorated by reuniting with two former mentors in Philadelphia, Coach Frank Reich and the assistant Press Taylor, and by joining a roster laden with foundational talent on both sides of the ball.Quarterbacks Who Might Be TradedSam Darnold, Jets Though Darnold would seem a not-incompatible fit for the run-heavy scheme of the new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, his future with the Jets hinges on two factors: the team’s interest in Deshaun Watson and its evaluation of every draft-eligible quarterback not named Trevor Lawrence. If General Manager Joe Douglas perceives potential successors like Justin Fields of Ohio State or Zach Wilson of Brigham Young as better long-term options, or if he succeeds in prying Watson from Houston, then Darnold — drafted third over all only three years ago — could be gone.Deshaun Watson, Texans Watson has requested a move away from Houston and, armed with a no-trade clause negotiated into the four-year extension he signed last September, can influence his destination. The Texans, when not doing things that alienate their star quarterback, have been adamant in saying they want to keep Watson. Considering he counts a bargain-rate $10.54 million against the salary cap in 2021, they have no incentive to offload him. But with Watson steadfast in his desire to leave, at some point the Texans must determine if they can remain steadfast in their desire to hold on to him — and if not, just how colossal a bounty they can extract for him.Deshaun Watson wants to leave the Texans, who are not ready (yet) to grant that wish.Credit…Eric Christian Smith/Associated PressMarcus Mariota, Raiders His lone appearance last season — when he accounted for 314 yards, including 88 rushing, in the Raiders’ Week 15 loss to the Chargers — showcased the tantalizing skills that prompted Tennessee to draft Mariota No. 2 over all in 2015. With a reasonable $10.6 million cap hit next season, Mariota may be able to parlay that single game, and some untapped promise, into a better opportunity elsewhere.Quarterbacks Who Are Unlikely to Move, but Who Knows?Derek Carr, Raiders To be clear, the Raiders have shown no inclination to trade Carr, who was the only regular-season quarterback to outduel Patrick Mahomes (and nearly did it twice). But in a division ruled by Mahomes, and with the rookie Justin Herbert of the Chargers ascending, the Raiders might be swayed to move Carr provided they were assured of a definite upgrade. Beyond possibly Watson, there aren’t many of those available.Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers The 49ers nearly won a Super Bowl with Garoppolo and may be quite content to try to reach another again with him. But he has missed 23 games across the last three seasons, and according to overthecap.com, San Francisco could save $23.6 million by releasing or trading him. Could this be the off-season Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch get younger at the position?Drew Lock, Broncos The Broncos’ struggle to develop a successor to Peyton Manning led them most recently to Lock. His uneven second season suggested he continues to tilt on the team’s scale of tall, big-armed quarterbacks more toward Brock Osweiler than John Elway, who picked Lock in the second round in 2019. Lock would figure to be involved in any potential deal for Watson, who might be enticed by Denver’s receiving talent.Dak Prescott, Cowboys When healthy, Prescott ranks among the league’s best quarterbacks. So there is a better chance that Dallas lures Troy Aikman out of retirement than lets Prescott, recovering from a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle, leave in free agency. The Cowboys are still hoping to complete a long-term deal with him before March 9, the deadline for applying a franchise tag, and if the sides can’t agree, Prescott would play under the tag for a second consecutive season. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers Roethlisberger, who turns 39 next month, told The Athletic that he would be glad to restructure a contract that next season carries a $41.25 million cap charge. That could free up money to help the Steelers retain some of their 19 unrestricted free agents, but the gesture is moot if they decide the team’s long-term prospects are better without him.Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins It’s possible that Miami, instead of using the third overall pick to surround Tagovailoa with more offensive talent, will choose to draft his replacement instead. But the only plausible scenario in which Tagovailoa is traded this off-season involves the Texans, who would almost certainly demand his inclusion as part of any package for Watson.Quarterbacks Who Could Be Availa— NopeAaron Rodgers, Packers: Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Wilson went all Festivus on the Seahawks, airing his grievances during a recent media blitz. He lamented getting hit so frequently and, spurred by watching Tom Brady and pals power Tampa Bay to a title, indicated he would like a larger voice in personnel decisions. Both are legitimate gripes. The Seahawks know how rare Wilson is. They may appease him. But they’re not trading him.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Rams Acquire Stafford for Goff as N.F.L. Quarterback Market Warms

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyRams Acquire Stafford for Goff as N.F.L. Quarterback Market WarmsThe Los Angeles Rams added a productive passer, Matthew Stafford, to a sagging offense, while the rebuilding Lions took on Jared Goff, a reclamation project with an onerous contract.Jared Goff, who led the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl in the 2018 N.F.L. season, was traded for Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is ranked fifth among active quarterbacks in passing yards (45,109).Credit…Paul Sancya/Associated PressJan. 31, 2021Updated 8:04 p.m. ETIn many other N.F.L. off-seasons, a swap of quarterbacks once drafted No. 1 over all, with a bundle of early-round future picks also involved, would signify the boldest, most intriguing move of the winter. But the trade consummated on Saturday by the Detroit Lions, who agreed to take on Jared Goff’s onerous contract from the Los Angeles Rams to sweeten their return for Matthew Stafford, might just be a prelude to a series of wild quarterback deals and signings over the next two months that upend the N.F.L. landscape.About half of the league’s 32 teams ended the regular season with uncertainty at the quarterback position. That group includes the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints — Philip Rivers retired at the end of the regular season and Drew Brees is likely to follow — but it is headlined by the Houston Texans, who are locked in a stalemate with their marvelous but disgruntled star, Deshaun Watson, who has reportedly requested a trade.The Rams had been hinting for weeks at their disenchantment with Goff, in whom they invested $110 million guaranteed via a contract extension signed 16 months ago. Rather than risk another team swooping in to acquire Stafford, long among the league’s more prolific passers, they enticed Detroit by sending a third-round pick in this year’s N.F.L. draft and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 for the ability to offload Goff’s contract.A person in football with direct knowledge of the deal confirmed the trade, which cannot be made official until the new league year begins on March 17. The Rams, though, did wink at it Saturday night in a post to Twitter that asked whether Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw — who attended Highland Park High School in Texas with Stafford — had “heard from an old friend today?”For Los Angeles, acquiring Stafford represents just another audacious move for a franchise that specializes in them. The Rams have not drafted in the first round since 2016, when they traded up to take Goff. Unless they acquire a pick, they won’t select in that round again until 2024. But it is the team’s eagerness to part with draft compensation for production at critical positions that has consistently positioned them as a contender in the N.F.C., even boosting them to the Super Bowl behind Goff in the 2018 season.Over the last two years, though, Goff has regressed, committing 38 turnovers — 29 interceptions, tied for third most in the N.F.L. in that span — and was effectively benched in favor of the undrafted backup John Wolford at the end of the regular season even though he told Coach Sean McVay he had recovered enough from thumb surgery to start. In unburdening themselves of Goff, the Rams gain the potent downfield passing threat they have been lacking while also bolstering their capacity to compete in an N.F.C. West where Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson set a blistering pace.Pending more moves, this iteration of the Rams — the team had the league’s stingiest defense in the 2020 season — just might have more talent than any team Stafford has played on across his 12 N.F.L. seasons, all of which were with Detroit. That stretch was defined by the Lions’ inability to complement him on the other side of the ball. Stafford, who turns 33 on Sunday, is by far the Lions’ franchise leader in passing yards, completions and touchdowns, and ranks fifth among active quarterbacks in career yards with 45,109. But he has played in only three playoff games, winning none, and was selected to just one Pro Bowl, in 2014.He asked the Lions to trade him this off-season, and his departure marks another milepost in their grand organizational overhaul. After firing Coach Matt Patricia and General Manager Bob Quinn in November 2020, Detroit hired a new coach, Dan Campbell, and a new general manager, Brad Holmes, who as the director of college scouting had endorsed the Rams’ selection of Goff No. 1 over all in 2016.Goff, who is still owed roughly $43 million guaranteed, affords Detroit a credible quarterback to start in 2021 but hardly prevents the team from pursuing another quarterback in the draft. Selecting in the top eight for the third consecutive year, the Lions are stockpiling picks to be used not only to augment a barren roster but that could go toward a package for Stafford’s long-term successor.Considering the package that the Lions received for Stafford, it is presumed that the Texans, should they choose to honor Watson’s request, will try to extract an even greater total of first-round picks for a younger and better quarterback. By that logic, though, Houston would also have to take on a contract as onerous as Goff’s to receive appealing compensation.That trade-off was worthwhile for the Lions, who have sorted out their quarterback situation, and the Rams, who seem delighted to have landed Stafford. Much of the league will be busy figuring out whether to stay put or to try to surpass them.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More