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    NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

    Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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    The 2021 NFL Draft First Round is Over. Here's What We Learned.

    Quarterbacks still come first, Alabama still produces talent and Aaron Rodgers is still unhappy.The first round of the 2021 N.F.L. draft proceeded on Thursday night according to the league’s strict hierarchy: quarterbacks came first, followed by those who catch passes from them and protect them, with the defenders tasked with stopping them bringing up the rear.And just to add some extra drama to the proceedings, a member of the league’s quarterback aristocracy did his best to upstage the newcomers.Quarterbacks went 1-2-3.For the first time since 1999, quarterbacks were selected with the top three picks: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence by the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson by the Jets at No. 2, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance by the San Francisco 49ers at No. 3.The Lawrence and Wilson selections were forgone conclusions weeks ago. San Francisco’s choice of Lance over Alabama’s Mac Jones or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, on the other hand, had been a closely guarded secret.Lance led the Bison to the Football Championship Subdivision national championship in 2019, throwing 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions against a much lower caliber of competition than Fields or Jones faced in their Power 5 conferences. He played only one game in 2020 because of coronavirus-related postponements and cancellations before declaring for the draft. A coach of Kyle Shanahan’s insight, however, can no doubt accurately evaluate a small-program prospect with limited playing time.Lance will replace Jimmy Garoppolo, the small-program prospect with limited playing time whom Shanahan’s 49ers traded for in 2017, lavishly overpaid and eventually grew disenchanted with.Fields, who led the Buckeyes to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances, dropped to the Chicago Bears, who traded up to draft him with the 11th pick. He is expected to quickly supplant Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, the N.F.L.’s versions of Art Garfunkel and John Oates.The New England Patriots later selected Jones with the 15th overall pick. Jones led the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020 under nearly ideal conditions; five of his college teammates were selected among the draft’s first 24 picks. Now he joins one the most successful American sports franchises of the 21st century. Some guys have all the luck.Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith were the last quarterbacks to be selected with the top-three selections in an N.F.L. draft. Only McNabb had a noteworthy career, which is a reminder that top quarterback prospects usually end up at the mercy of perennially dysfunctional franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Or, in this year’s case, the Jaguars and the Jets.Receivers great and small were embraced.The Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith went to the Eagles at No. 10.Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesAfter the quarterbacks came a run of pass catchers.The Atlanta Falcons selected tight end Kyle Pitts, who caught 12 touchdown passes in eight games for Florida last year, at No. 4. The highest-drafted tight end in history, Pitts is expected to revolutionize the way N.F.L. offenses use tight ends, just as Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, Travis Kelce and many others revolutionized the position over the last 50 years. Apparently, the tight end position has undergone as many revolutions as 19th century Italy.The Cincinnati Bengals selected Louisiana State wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth pick, reuniting him with Joe Burrow, Chase’s college quarterback and the top pick in last year’s draft. If the Bengals transform into an L.S.U. alumni team, it will at least give them an identity for the first time since Boomer Esiason left in 1993.The speedy Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle joined the Miami Dolphins with the next pick, No. 6 over all, leaping ahead of more-accomplished teammate DeVonta Smith, who was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 10th pick.Smith is nicknamed Slim Reaper, which sounds like the world’s only Eminem/Iron Maiden tribute band but refers instead to the fact that Smith reportedly weighs around 166 pounds, a few Waffle House breakfasts shy of the minimum N.F.L. threshold. Smith should have carried the 45-pound Heisman Trophy he won last season onto a scale with him to put evaluators more at ease.Like Chase, Waddle and Smith will be reunited with their college quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (in Miami) and Jalen Hurts (in Philadelphia). But it’s not really noteworthy when that sort of thing happens to Alabama players.Cornerbacks: The next generation.The Broncos liked the look of cornerback Patrick Surtain II. So did Patrick Surtain II.Pool photo by David DermerBy the time N.F.L. teams got around to drafting some defenders, their best choices turned out to be cornerbacks with famous fathers.The Carolina Panthers selected Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) with the eighth pick. Horn’s father, Joe Horn, was a standout wide receiver best known for using a cellphone as a prop in a touchdown celebration against the Giants in 2003. Horn used a flip phone, retroactively making the gag a “dad joke.”Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) joined the Denver Broncos with the ninth pick. His father played for the great Miami Dolphins defenses of the early 2000s, which are not well remembered mostly because their offenses were dreadful.Other second-generation cornerbacks will be drafted in later rounds, including Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr., whose dad allowed an Eli Manning interception to bounce off his hands in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII, making him the only New England Patriots player eligible for the Giants’ Ring of Honor.Leaping forward and trading back.The Jets traded up to the 14th pick from the 23rd pick (acquired from the Seattle Seahawks in last year’s Jamal Adams deal) to select Southern Cal offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker, who will provide some insurance against Wilson’s enduring too many early-career hits the way the last umpteen Jets quarterback prospects did.The Giants’ general manager, Dave Gettleman.Michael Conroy/Associated PressAs for the Giants, General Manager Dave Gettleman opted to trade down in the first round for the first time in his long career, sliding down from the 11th pick to net an extra first-round pick in 2022, plus change. In their adjusted spot at No. 20, the Giants selected the Florida all-purpose rusher-receiver Kadarius Toney.Gettleman said last week that he had always been amenable to trading down, but the price was never right. “I don’t want to get fleeced,” he said.No N.F.L. personality sounds more like a crotchety uncle haggling at a used car dealership than Gettleman, but he appears to have struck a shrewd deal this time.Rodgers, grudges and Green Bay.Aaron Rodgers in the workday uniform he currently prefers.Carol Kaelson/Jeopardy Productions, Inc., via Associated PressA report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter that a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers does not want to return to the Green Bay Packers sent shock waves across the league in the hours before the draft. Rodgers, the reigning most valuable player and a recent “Jeopardy!” guest host, was not-so-secretly miffed when the Packers drafted his potential replacement, Jordan Love, in last year’s first round and by other organizational decisions.The Packers could have selected a wide receiver with the 29th pick, which would have been the draft-day equivalent of a diamond brooch and a tearful apology. Instead, they chose Georgia cornerback Eric Stokes.While the Rodgers situation is still developing, few teams have the resources to trade for him. And if Rodgers chooses to retire, “Jeopardy!” would be better off hiring LeVar Burton. More

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    How to Watch the 2021 NFL Draft: Start Time, Streaming and Draft Order

    A complete guide to some of the biggest questions surrounding the N.F.L. draft.The guessing will soon be over.After months of projections and rumors, the N.F.L. draft begins with the first round on Thursday, and with it comes a chance for all 32 teams to add new talent to their rosters. The coronavirus pandemic altered this year’s player evaluation process, but the end result will remain the same: More than 200 college players will formally be welcomed into the league during the three-day spectacle. Here’s what you need to know about it.What time is the draft?The first round of the N.F.L. draft starts Thursday at 8 p.m. Eastern time.ESPN, ABC and NFL Network will broadcast the event. It can be streamed through services like Hulu, Sling TV, fuboTV and the ESPN and N.F.L. apps.Where is the draft?Unlike in 2020, it won’t be held in N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell’s basement. The league. will convene in Cleveland this season for a hybrid model — some remote segments, some in-person — after Covid-19 forced the league last year to conduct the ceremonies virtually.Thirteen prospects will be on site to hug a vaccinated Goodell, if they so choose, after he calls their names. Others, including the presumed No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, a quarterback out of Clemson, will participate remotely. The N.F.L. also organized in-person musical performances and other events for fans in attendance.What’s the first round draft order?For the first 14 weeks of the 2020 season, the Jets were winless and seemed poised to inherit the No. 1 overall pick. But after winning two of their last three games, they forfeited that right and handed it to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost every game after the season opener.The San Francisco 49ers leapt nine spots when they acquired the third overall pick through a trade last month with the Miami Dolphins, who then traded with the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 6 pick. The Baltimore Ravens also reshuffled the order when they received the No. 31 pick from Kansas City in a trade package that included offensive tackle Orlando Brown.Kansas City, along with the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, does not have a first-round pick because of previous trades. The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Ravens each have two.1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay BuccaneersWho will be picked No. 1?All signs point to the Jaguars selecting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In three seasons as a starter, he led the Tigers to two national title games, winning after the 2018 season, and three consecutive College Football Playoff appearances. He lost only two games in his career at the South Carolina school.Lawrence declined the N.F.L.’s invitation to attend the draft in person and instead will watch with his wife, Marissa, and family at their home near Clemson. Along with the newly hired Coach Urban Meyer, he will be charged with improving a franchise that has historically struggled to win. Since 2008, the Jaguars have finished above .500 only once.If everyone knows who will be picked first, where is the drama?Unless the Jets drift from their expected plan of selecting Brigham Young quarterback Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick, the suspense starts with San FranciscoThe 49ers’ trade package to the Dolphins included two future first-round picks, a steep price San Francisco felt comfortable paying to add a quarterback. Their current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, has been sidelined with major injuries, playing in fewer than seven games in two of the last three seasons.Alabama’s Mac Jones, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are the leading candidates to be picked by the 49ers. While Jones is an accurate pocket passer, Lance and Fields can throw and be effective runners, adding another stress to a defense and expanding Coach Kyle Shanahan’s playbook.But the 49ers can only pick one of them, leaving a bevy of options for the Atlanta Falcons with the fourth overall pick. Their franchise quarterback, Matt Ryan, 35, is the second-oldest quarterback in the N.F.C. South, and though he arguably has productive seasons ahead of him, Coach Arthur Smith and General Manager Terry Fontenot, who both were hired this winter, may elect to start the line of succession.Florida tight end Kyle Pitts could also make sense for the Falcons, especially since teams have reportedly tried to gauge their interest in trading the star receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta could swap picks with a team searching for a quarterback and choose from talented players later in the first round.What about players who opted out of their college seasons?More than 100 Division I players opted out of the 2020 college football season because of coronavirus concerns. Some of those players are expected to come off the board early, despite not having played a live snap in more than a year.The Bengals, with the fifth pick, are expected to be the first team to select a player who opted out since the best available non-quarterbacks align with some of the team’s many, many needs. Cincinnati could either bolster its offensive line, which surrendered the third-most sacks in the N.F.L. last season, by drafting Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell. Or it could reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with receiver Ja’Marr Chase, one of his teammates from Louisiana State’s national championship team.Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau and Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater are also projected first-round selections who opted out of the 2020 season. More

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    Here Are The Needs for the Biggest Movers in the NFL Draft

    San Francisco traded for the No. 3 pick to select a quarterback, and Baltimore traded into the first round, sending Orlando Brown to Kansas City, to reload for the future.The top of the N.F.L. draft quaked late last month when the Miami Dolphins, the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles swung what amounted to a three-team trade. The bottom of it shuddered on Friday when the Baltimore Ravens acquired another first-round pick.In March, the Dolphins sent the No. 3 pick in the draft to San Francisco for the No. 12 pick this year, first- and third-round picks in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023. Then they shipped the No. 12 pick and a fourth-rounder this year and a first-rounder in 2022 to the Eagles, who gave Miami the No. 6 pick and a fifth-round selection.Those teams have not tipped off their draft targets — though 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan faces questions nearly every day about his team’s quarterback position — but here are their needs ahead of Thursday night’s first round:No. 3 Pick: San Francisco 49ers (From Miami)Both Justin Fields and Mac Jones have been speculated as targets for the San Francisco 49ers with the No. 3 pick in the 2021 N.F.L. draft.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesMichael Reaves/Getty ImagesWith Jacksonville set to pick Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and the Jets most likely taking Zach Wilson at No. 2, this is where the draft begins and where all the speculation finally, mercifully, ceases. After trading with the Dolphins to move up nine spots last month, the 49ers are taking a quarterback to sit behind, or supplant, Jimmy Garoppolo this year. Their choice will reveal much about Kyle Shanahan’s vision.Does he value an accurate, mechanically sound pocket passer who can execute a scheme designed to yield completions and yards after receptions? If so, come on down, Mac Jones of Alabama.But after watching Patrick Mahomes toast the 49ers in the Super Bowl to cap the 2019 season and seeing Josh Allen shred them in Week 13 last season, Shanahan could be craving a mobile quarterback. He has Justin Fields of Ohio State and Trey Lance of North Dakota State to choose between. That decision will fling the rest of the top 10 into chaos.No. 6 Pick: Miami Dolphins (From Philadelphia)L.S.U. receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who opted out of the 2020 college football season, could be available when the Dolphins select sixth.David J. Phillip/Associated PressThe Dolphins want to put quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a better position for success in his second N.F.L. season. Their trades with Philadelphia and San Francisco guarantee that they can do so with the sixth overall pick, where at least one receiver among Ja’Marr Chase of Louisiana State and Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith of Alabama, or the unicorn tight end Kyle Pitts of Florida, will be available. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell of Oregon could also be available.Miami is picking here because a video surfaced minutes before the 2016 draft of the offensive tackle prospect Laremy Tunsil wearing a gas mask and appearing to smoke marijuana through a bong. To explain: Because of the video, Tunsil was selected at No. 13, lower than expected, by Miami. After developing him into one of the league’s best tackles, the Dolphins, as they stripped their roster for a rebuild, were able to trade a package that included him to the Houston Texans in 2019 for a package that included three draft picks, including the third pick in this year’s draft.No. 12 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami, via San Francisco)Either the Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, left, or Jaylen Waddle, right, of Alabama, would be a welcome addition to the Eagles, who are looking to upgrade the receiver position.Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesBy trading back from the sixth pick and obtaining a 2022 first-round pick in the process, the Eagles signaled that they would replenish their aging roster under their new coach, Nick Sirianni. The move collects a raft of picks for 2022, when, hopefully, the college football schedule returns to normal and teams can better evaluate prospects.Maybe most important to Eagles fans, it confirmed that Philadelphia was not interested in selecting a quarterback high or displacing Jalen Hurts — at least not this year. With two first-round picks in 2022, and possibly a third if Carson Wentz reaches playing time benchmarks in Indianapolis, the Eagles are positioned to acquire a quarterback next off-season if Hurts flops.As for this year, the Eagles need receivers and upgrades at a lot of other positions. If Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith from Alabama is available, General Manager Howie Roseman may be tempted. If neither is, and if he doesn’t like the talent at another need position (like, say, cornerback), he might just trade out again.No. 31 Pick: Baltimore Ravens (From Kansas City)Baltimore traded away the Pro Bowl offensive lineman Orlando Brown to gain a first-round pick in this year’s draft and stockpiled future selections.Brett Carlsen/Associated PressThe Ravens on Friday traded a player at a premium position, the Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown, to Kansas City for this pick and others. It might have seemed peculiar, helping the best team in the conference get better at protecting Patrick Mahomes’s blind side, but Ravens General Manager Eric DeCosta values draft choices. For unloading Brown, he got three others spread across the next two years.Baltimore, which also picks at No. 27, now has options, either to trade up, to bolster its receiving corps or to improve a pass rush that lost the free-agent defensive end Matt Judon to New England in the off-season.Full 2021 N.F.L. Draft Order1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers More

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    After Trevor Lawrence, Pick Another Quarterback

    With no shortage of teams looking for a passer to build around, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones figure to shape the draft’s top 10 picks.There is no drama as to who will be the No. 1 pick in this year’s N.F.L. draft. The only question had been which team would get the chance to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville Jaguars secured that honor by way of the Jets’ seemingly not understanding that they were supposed to keep losing.So with the knowledge that Lawrence, a Peyton Manning-like sure thing of a quarterback prospect, is going to Jacksonville to be paired with Coach Urban Meyer in a college-meets-pros marriage, here is a look at the other four quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10 of this year’s draft, which will begin on Thursday with the first round held in Cleveland.Zach Wilson: The GunslingerZach Wilson’s devil-may-care attitude and prolific numbers endeared him to college fans and to the Jets, which pick second in Thursday’s N.F.L. draft.Steve Conner/Associated PressCollege: Brigham Young (two-plus seasons as a starter)Size: 6 feet 2 inches, 214 pounds2020 Passing: 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 196.4 rating2020 Rushing: 254 yards, 10 touchdownsThe reason Wilson is considered the consensus No. 2 pick: Aaron Rodgers. The reason the Jets, who hold the selection, might want to show at least a little caution: Johnny Manziel. Wilson has a strong and accurate arm, improvises well outside the pocket and has off-the-charts confidence — all the charisma and competitiveness that Rodgers and Manziel have in common.But that approach yielded different outcomes for those two gunslingers in the pros, where Rodgers’s size and off-field steadiness were among the traits that made him more successful. Wilson’s daring did not work all that well against top competition in college, where he went 2-4 against top-25 teams, and it’s an open question whether it will work against disciplined N.F.L. defenses.Wilson, 21, missed games in 2019 for surgeries on his shoulder and thumb, but if his 2020 season was a true reflection of his skill, the team drafting Wilson is getting a truly special quarterback.Outlook: The Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers in early April and it is considered nearly certain that they are set on Wilson as his replacement.Justin Fields: The Dual ThreatJustin Fields led Ohio State’s romp over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. He and Alabama’s Mac Jones are both rumored to be the target of the San Francisco 49ers, which traded up to the No. 3 pick.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Ohio State, transferred from Georgia (two seasons as a full-time starter)Size: 6-2, 228 pounds2020 Passing: 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 175.6 rating2020 Rushing: 383 yards, 5 touchdownsFields grew up a few towns over from Lawrence in Georgia and has been in his shadow at each step along the way, especially after Lawrence won the national championship as a freshman. Fields transferred from Georgia to Ohio State for his sophomore season in 2019 and was a Heisman Trophy finalist (Lawrence didn’t make the cut). Lawrence and Clemson beat Fields and Ohio State in that season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, but Fields got his revenge the next season as the Buckeyes trounced the Tigers in another semifinal matchup.Now Fields’s easiest comparison is to the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, another big-bodied pocket passer who can surprise with his running if there’s an opening. There is no question that Fields regressed in 2020 compared to his breakout 2019 season, when he threw for 3,273 yards with 41 touchdowns against three interceptions. His labored release and tendency to hold onto the ball resulted in his taking sacks, but his arm strength and versatility, along with his strong effort against Clemson in a pressure-packed game, have turned the volume down on any questions. So did his head-on handling of publicly detailing his epilepsy diagnosis, which he has managed since his childhood.Outlook: While not in the mix for the top two picks, Fields is the overwhelming favorite to be the third quarterback drafted Thursday, as his accuracy, his arm strength and his ability to run all make him an ideal fit for Coach Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco.Trey Lance: The Unproven StarAfter a breakout sophomore season, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance played in only one game in 2020.Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated PressCollege: North Dakota State (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-4, 226 pounds2019 Passing: 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 180.6 rating2019 Rushing: 1,100 yards, 14 touchdownsLance hasn’t lost a football game since Nov. 10, 2017, when his Marshall (Minn.) Tigers were topped by the South St. Paul Packers in Minnesota’s high school state quarterfinals. He hasn’t thrown an interception in a game since Oct. 13, 2017. After throwing only one pass at North Dakota State in his freshman year, he won the Walter Payton Award as the top player in the Football Championship Subdivision and led North Dakota State to an undefeated championship season in his lone year as a starter.N.D.S.U. played its only fall game on Oct. 3, 2020, before Lance declared for the draft, meaning six months have gone by since anyone has seen him throw a competitive pass. Little matter for the right team. Lance is known as a film room addict with atypical passing mechanics abetted by a quick-enough release. His array of devastating play fakes, combined with his speed and power as a runner, give Lance a skill set that should translate at the pro level.Outlook: Seemingly assured of being a top-10 pick, Lance is the fourth quarterback off the board in most mock drafts. His back story of people doubting his ability to handle the quarterback position is reminiscent of Lamar Jackson, his style of play is a little closer to Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz has proved that a player from N.D.S.U.’s program can succeed in the N.F.L. That is good company to keep.Mac Jones: The Question MarkMac Jones quarterbacked Alabama to a 13-0 record and the national championship with an offense that boasted an embarrassment of riches at every position.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Alabama (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-3, 217 pounds2020 Passing: 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 203.1 rating2020 Rushing: 14 yards, 1 touchdownsHaving come to Alabama in the same recruiting class as Tua Tagovailoa, and with Jalen Hurts entrenched at starter upon his arrival, it took a while before Jones got onto the field. It didn’t take Jones long to prove himself. As a fill-in starter in the 2019 season he led the Crimson Tide to a 2020 Citrus Bowl win, and in his lone season as the full-time starter he set a Football Bowl Subdivision single-season record for completion percentage with an eye-popping 77.4 percent.Jones’s accuracy, his strong-enough arm and his ability to move around in the pocket (even if he almost never runs) make him an attractive prospect. There are questions, though, about the frantic nature of his play, his slow release, how he will improvise when his first option isn’t available and how much of his success was a result of his team having been comically loaded at every position on offense.Outlook: Jones, 22, has been linked in some reports to San Francisco, which traded up to the No. 3 pick in late March. Shanahan watched his second pro day workout, as did New England’s Bill Belichick. The Patriots (who have the No. 15 pick) would have to trade into the top 10 to grab Jones before the quarterback-coveting Panthers (No. 8) and Broncos (No. 9) are on the clock. More

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    NFL Week 16: What We Learned

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 16 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Steelers came back to beat the Colts, Kansas City survived against Atlanta and Jacksonville secured the No. 1 pick in the draft.Diontae Johnson began the Steelers’ comeback against the Colts with a diving catch for a 39-yard touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger added two more scoring passes in the fourth quarter to help Pittsburgh secure a 28-24 win.Credit…Don Wright/Associated PressDec. 27, 2020Updated 8:22 p.m. ETThe Pittsburgh Steelers overcame a huge deficit to shock the Indianapolis Colts. The Kansas City Chiefs barely beat the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens continued their surge with a win over the Giants. The top spot in the A.F.C. playoffs has been decided — as has the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — but even a few irrelevant teams showed some pluck Sunday.Here’s what we learned:[embedded content]There is some fight left in the Steelers. Pittsburgh came into the day on a three-game losing streak, and appeared to be headed toward a fourth consecutive loss when it fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 24-7, in the third quarter. From that point, the game belonged entirely to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger started the comeback in the third quarter by throwing a deep 39-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson. He then added a 5-yard touchdown to Eric Ebron and a 25-yarder to JuJu Smith-Schuster in the fourth, as Pittsburgh’s defense shut down Indianapolis. The Colts’ final four drives resulted in two punts, an interception and a turnover on downs.Pittsburgh, which clinched the A.F.C. North title with Sunday’s win, is currently a half-game ahead of Buffalo for the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs. Indianapolis, which fell to 10-5, has been one of the N.F.L.’s better teams this season but is currently not in line for a playoff spot because the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns own tiebreakers over the Colts.Kansas City came away with a win, but it required a fairly shocking miss by Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, who came into the day 19 for 19 on field goal attempts of less than 40 yards.Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressThe Chiefs love to play with fire. A win was hardly necessary for Kansas City, as the Chiefs were virtually assured of the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs even if they lost their final two games. But watching Kansas City barely hang on for a 17-14 win at home over the Atlanta Falcons reinforced the idea that Patrick Mahomes’s team tends to play down to its competition. A sloppy effort against Atlanta had the Chiefs losing, 14-10, with just over two minutes remaining, and would have headed to overtime if not for an unlikely miss from Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, as the Pro Bowl kicker’s attempt at a game-tying 39-yard field goal sailed wide right.Regardless of how close they cut it, the Chiefs improved to 14-1 and clinched the A.F.C.’s only first-round bye. Perhaps by the divisional round of the playoffs, the Chiefs will decide that it is important to try for the entire game.Baltimore’s Gus Edwards led a rushing attack that produced 249 yards on 40 carries.Credit…Terrance Williams/Associated PressThe Ravens control their playoff destiny. Baltimore dropped to 6-5 with a loss to Pittsburgh on Dec. 2 — the team’s fourth defeat in five games — and seemed like a long shot to make the playoffs. A soft schedule, and a return to form by quarterback Lamar Jackson, has righted the ship and thanks to a 27-13 victory over the Giants, the Ravens can now secure the team’s third straight trip to the playoffs simply by beating the Cincinnati Bengals next week. Baltimore’s four-game win streak has included only one victory over a team with a winning record, but an average of 37 points a game is impressive no matter the opponent.The Ravens, who thrive when chewing up huge chunks of yardage on the ground, have averaged 233.3 yards rushing a game in the four-game win streak after having been held to fewer than 200 in nine of their first 11 games.Taylor Heinicke was forced into action at quarterback for Washington after Dwayne Haskins was benched. It is unclear who will start at quarterback for Washington in next week’s crucial game.Credit…Mark Tenally/Associated PressCeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both had huge days for Dallas as the Cowboys demolished the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas somewhat surprisingly still has a shot at making the playoffs.Credit…Ron Jenkins/Associated PressThere will be a division winner with a losing record. The Washington Football Team came into the day with dreams of finishing the season at 8-8, but a 20-13 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers dropped Washington to 6-9, meaning the N.F.C. East will be won by a team that is, at best, 7-9. The division’s teams have often been hard to watch, but they will provide the most exciting subplot of Week 17, as the Footballers, the Dallas Cowboys and the Giants will all go into the season’s final day with a chance at earning a playoff game at home. Washington can make it nice and simple by winning a road game against the eliminated Philadelphia Eagles — a result that would be far more attainable should quarterback Alex Smith return from a calf injury.Frank Gore is going out in style. After a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in November dropped the Jets to 0-10, Gore, 37, addressed his team’s struggles (and his own future), saying “You don’t want to go 0-16, especially if this is my last year. I can’t go out like that.” Last week Gore helped the Jets end their 13-game losing streak by scoring the 100th touchdown of his career. This week he ran for a team-high 48 yards as the Jets beat the Cleveland Browns, 23-16. In doing so, Gore joined Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton as the only players in N.F.L. history with at least 16,000 yards rushing — only two other active players, Detroit’s Adrian Peterson (14,757) and Tampa Bay’s LeSean McCoy (11,102), have more than 10,000.Provided he decides to declare for the N.F.L. draft, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will almost assuredly be headed south to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Credit…Ken Ruinard/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTrevor Lawrence is moving about six hours south. The downside of Gore getting his wish to go out well with the Jets is the team having officially handed the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft to the Jacksonville Jaguars, which almost assuredly will lead to Lawrence, Clemson’s star quarterback, taking a long drive down I-95 to replace Gardner Minshew rather than heading north to replace Sam Darnold. The Jaguars were emphatic in their failure on Sunday, losing by 41-17 to the suddenly surging Chicago Bears. But at least on offense Jacksonville should be a terrific landing spot for Lawrence, as he will immediately be handed a good young running back (James Robinson) and two talented young wide receivers (D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr.)One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Kansas City’s Travis Kelce needs just 84 yards receiving to become the first tight end to have 1,500 in a season. His biggest obstacle is the likelihood that the Chiefs will rest multiple starters after having already clinched a first-round bye. Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressChiefs 17, Falcons 14 It was a quiet day by Kansas City’s lofty standards, and the team’s running game looked far less effective without the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but the Chiefs did have the silver lining of Travis Kelce reaching 1,416 yards receiving for the season, breaking the single-season record for a tight end set by George Kittle in 2018. Kelce has one more game to add to his total, provided Kansas City doesn’t rest him in next week’s irrelevant game against the Los Angeles Chargers.Steelers 28, Colts 24 At halftime, Indianapolis was romping to an easy win. The second half was another story, as the Steelers stopped trying to dink and dunk themselves to victory and had their aggressiveness pay off in spades, with the team earning its first A.F.C. North title in three seasons.Ravens 27, Giants 13 The Giants’ third straight loss was largely a result of Baltimore’s offense overwhelming them, but the Ravens’ defense had a fine day as well, making Daniel Jones’s life miserable with six sacks and 11 quarterback hits.Seattle’s defense was terrible for most of the season, but the team has been showing dramatic improvement on that side of the ball. Quandre Diggs’s interception in the second quarter of Sunday’s game ended a promising drive by the Rams.Credit…Scott Eklund/Associated PressSeahawks 20, Rams 9 It was hardly an explosive effort, but Seattle clinched the N.F.C. West title, kept alive a small chance at a first-round bye, and continued to show dramatic improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Despite its loss, Los Angeles controls its own fate next week. A win would give the Rams a wild-card spot in the playoffs.Jets 23, Browns 16 It took a total team effort for Cleveland to lose, with Baker Mayfield completing just 28 of his 53 passes, the Browns’ celebrated running game averaging just 2.5 yards a carry and the team’s defense making the Jets’ Sam Darnold look downright competent. A win would have clinched a playoff spot for Cleveland, but the Browns will now go into Week 17 fighting with Miami, Baltimore and Indianapolis for the three wild-card spots in the A.F.C.Cowboys 37, Eagles 17 Everything went right for Dallas, with Andy Dalton throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns, Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 105 yards and Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb all putting on a show against Philadelphia’s overwhelmed secondary. Jalen Hurts topped 300 yards passing for a second consecutive week, but wasn’t able to turn that yardage into enough points.Curtis Samuel has been remarkably versatile for Carolina this season. He and Christian McCaffrey could present matchup problems for opponents should McCaffrey get back to full health next season.Credit…Mitchell Layton/Getty ImagesPanthers 20, Footballers 13 Curtis Samuel put on a show for Carolina, piling up 158 yards from scrimmage, but the story of the day was quarterback Dwayne Haskins being benched for ineffective play on the heels of losing his captaincy as a result of off-field behavior. You have to assume that Haskins’s days in Washington are numbered.Chargers 19, Broncos 16 Denver had the ball with a chance to win the game in the final minute, but Drew Lock’s desperation heave was intercepted, handing Los Angeles its sixth win of the season.Chicago’s Jimmy Graham caught two touchdown passes on Sunday, giving him 82 for his career. Among tight ends, only  Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski have more.Credit…James Gilbert/Getty ImagesBears 41, Jaguars 17 It is not like Jacksonville had any motivation to win — quite the opposite — but watching Chicago put up 28 consecutive points to start the second half couldn’t have been very fun. Chicago’s win, combined with Arizona’s loss on Saturday, has the Bears in line for the N.F.C.’s final wild-card spot. That sets up an entertaining Week 17 in which Chicago closes its season with a home game against the top-seeded Green Bay Packers, and the Cardinals have a tough matchup on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.Bengals 37, Texans 31 Brandon Allen threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns and Samaje Perine ran for 95 yards and two scores, powering Cincinnati to its first road win since Sept. 30, 2018. Houston dropped to 4-11, having absolutely wasted a season of quarterback Deshaun Watson’s prime.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More