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    Will the 49ers Contend if They Just Get Healthy?

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    After an improbably injury-riddled 2020, 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan’s disaster-proof offense is back on track.There’s nothing quite as gripping as a post-apocalyptic adventure like “The Walking Dead,” “The Road,” “Y: The Last Man” or the 2021 San Francisco 49ers.The 49ers reached the Super Bowl in the 2019 season but lived through an extinction-level injury cataclysm in 2020. They lost Pro Bowl pass rushers Dee Ford (neck, back) for 15 games and Nick Bosa (knee) for 14. The All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) for 11, the All-Pro tight end George Kittle (knee, foot) for eight, their top wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, (foot, hamstring, Covid-19) for nine, plus various other starters on both sides of the ball for large chunks of the year.Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) also missed 10 games; the fact that he does not receive top billing on their injury roll call is telling on a variety of levels.According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers lost the equivalent of 166.6 games by starters to injuries, the second-highest total for an N.F.L. team over the past 20 years. That’s like losing 10 starters — nearly half of a 22-man offensive and defensive lineup — for an entire season. Covid-related absences increased “injury” rates across the league last year, but the 49ers still led the N.F.L. in players unavailable for health reasons by over 30 games. The team’s few survivors staggered to a 6-10 finish.One year later, nearly all of the 49ers’ irreplaceable stars are healthy and back on the field, as is Garoppolo. The 49ers have started the 2021 season with narrow-but-still-convincing victories over the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel leads the N.F.L. with 282 receiving yards. Bosa has recorded three sacks. Kittle and Ford are once again playing at a high level. And Garoppolo has resumed his role as the person who sits behind the wheel of the self-driving car and makes sure that nothing malfunctions.The 49ers are designed to be more disaster-proof than most teams, which made their 2020 collapse all the more frustrating. Shanahan’s offense emphasizes short passes to receivers who specialize in racing or rumbling for big gains after the catch; hence Garoppolo’s reputation as more of a desk clerk than a game manager. Running backs are also replaceable cogs in Shanahan’s machine. The 49ers could have operated effectively last season without some combination of Garoppolo, Kittle, Samuel, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who was a 2020 first-round pick, and the top running backs Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. In several games last season, including their 34-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers (this week’s opponent), they were without all of those players.Similarly, the 49ers defensive line for 2020 was slated to feature five past first-round picks, including Bosa and Ford: Four starters and a spare tire in case of a flat. But Arik Armstead was the only 49ers lineman to start all 16 games. As a result, the team’s sack total dropped from 48 in 2019 to 30 last year. Under the circumstances, six wins were a remarkable feat for Shanahan and his staff.Not all of the important figures from the 2019 Super Bowl campaign returned this year. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s experience desperately assembling a semi-functional roster out of rookies and leftovers made him overwhelmingly qualified for the Jets’ head coaching job. Sherman was not re-signed after last season; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reportedly interested in adding him for their Super Bowl victory lap.The rookie running back Elijah Mitchell rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener, when he replaced Raheem Mostert, who is out for the season.Leon Halip/Getty ImagesThe 49ers have also not completely avoided injuries so far in 2021, though it’s naïve to think that any football team could. Cornerback Jason Verrett, who missed nearly all of the 2016 through 2019 seasons with a battery of injuries, tore his anterior cruciate ligament in Week 1. Verrett, oddly enough, was one of the team’s healthiest players last year. Mostert is also lost for the season, but San Francisco stocked up on reinforcements like the rookie Elijah Mitchell, who rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener.Speaking of reinforcements, the 49ers traded up in the draft this spring to select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance with the third overall pick. Lance’s arrival suggested that Shanahan was seeking more than push-button management at the position, but also signaled the organization’s confidence that the team would get better simply by getting healthier. That has proved true so far.A few changes aside, the 49ers are playing well with a starting lineup that looks a lot like their 2019 Super Bowl lineup/2020 injured reserve list, while Lance has been limited to gadget-play duties.Football Outsiders’ research suggests that there’s a meaningful year-to-year correlation in a team’s injury rate. That’s bad news for the 49ers, who have finished in the top half of the league in games lost to injuries for eight straight seasons. The good news is that last season’s injury rate was so catastrophically high that some regression toward the N.F.L. average is nearly inevitable, according to the tenets of central tendency. Things simply must get better. If they don’t, at least the immensely talented Lance is equipped to survive a “Mad Max” scenario while the 49ers sift through the rubble and try to rebuild.Despite their early-season wins, the 49ers appear to be a notch below contenders like the Buccaneers. The Packers game on Sunday will provide their only true test against a playoff-caliber opponent, before the team embarks on divisional matchups in the N.F.C. West, an unforgiving environment for a team with glaring weaknesses. Another 49ers Super Bowl run may have to wait until Lance is ready to replace Garoppolo and switch Shanahan’s offense out of autopilot.But post-apocalyptic fiction is more about survival than success, perseverance than triumph. The 49ers have done a fine job so far of putting 2020 behind them and returning to as close to normal as possible. That doesn’t make them champions. But it certainly makes them relatable. More

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      The 2021 NFL Draft First Round is Over. Here's What We Learned.

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      Quarterbacks still come first, Alabama still produces talent and Aaron Rodgers is still unhappy.The first round of the 2021 N.F.L. draft proceeded on Thursday night according to the league’s strict hierarchy: quarterbacks came first, followed by those who catch passes from them and protect them, with the defenders tasked with stopping them bringing up the rear.And just to add some extra drama to the proceedings, a member of the league’s quarterback aristocracy did his best to upstage the newcomers.Quarterbacks went 1-2-3.For the first time since 1999, quarterbacks were selected with the top three picks: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence by the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson by the Jets at No. 2, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance by the San Francisco 49ers at No. 3.The Lawrence and Wilson selections were forgone conclusions weeks ago. San Francisco’s choice of Lance over Alabama’s Mac Jones or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, on the other hand, had been a closely guarded secret.Lance led the Bison to the Football Championship Subdivision national championship in 2019, throwing 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions against a much lower caliber of competition than Fields or Jones faced in their Power 5 conferences. He played only one game in 2020 because of coronavirus-related postponements and cancellations before declaring for the draft. A coach of Kyle Shanahan’s insight, however, can no doubt accurately evaluate a small-program prospect with limited playing time.Lance will replace Jimmy Garoppolo, the small-program prospect with limited playing time whom Shanahan’s 49ers traded for in 2017, lavishly overpaid and eventually grew disenchanted with.Fields, who led the Buckeyes to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances, dropped to the Chicago Bears, who traded up to draft him with the 11th pick. He is expected to quickly supplant Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, the N.F.L.’s versions of Art Garfunkel and John Oates.The New England Patriots later selected Jones with the 15th overall pick. Jones led the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020 under nearly ideal conditions; five of his college teammates were selected among the draft’s first 24 picks. Now he joins one the most successful American sports franchises of the 21st century. Some guys have all the luck.Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith were the last quarterbacks to be selected with the top-three selections in an N.F.L. draft. Only McNabb had a noteworthy career, which is a reminder that top quarterback prospects usually end up at the mercy of perennially dysfunctional franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Or, in this year’s case, the Jaguars and the Jets.Receivers great and small were embraced.The Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith went to the Eagles at No. 10.Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesAfter the quarterbacks came a run of pass catchers.The Atlanta Falcons selected tight end Kyle Pitts, who caught 12 touchdown passes in eight games for Florida last year, at No. 4. The highest-drafted tight end in history, Pitts is expected to revolutionize the way N.F.L. offenses use tight ends, just as Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, Travis Kelce and many others revolutionized the position over the last 50 years. Apparently, the tight end position has undergone as many revolutions as 19th century Italy.The Cincinnati Bengals selected Louisiana State wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth pick, reuniting him with Joe Burrow, Chase’s college quarterback and the top pick in last year’s draft. If the Bengals transform into an L.S.U. alumni team, it will at least give them an identity for the first time since Boomer Esiason left in 1993.The speedy Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle joined the Miami Dolphins with the next pick, No. 6 over all, leaping ahead of more-accomplished teammate DeVonta Smith, who was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 10th pick.Smith is nicknamed Slim Reaper, which sounds like the world’s only Eminem/Iron Maiden tribute band but refers instead to the fact that Smith reportedly weighs around 166 pounds, a few Waffle House breakfasts shy of the minimum N.F.L. threshold. Smith should have carried the 45-pound Heisman Trophy he won last season onto a scale with him to put evaluators more at ease.Like Chase, Waddle and Smith will be reunited with their college quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (in Miami) and Jalen Hurts (in Philadelphia). But it’s not really noteworthy when that sort of thing happens to Alabama players.Cornerbacks: The next generation.The Broncos liked the look of cornerback Patrick Surtain II. So did Patrick Surtain II.Pool photo by David DermerBy the time N.F.L. teams got around to drafting some defenders, their best choices turned out to be cornerbacks with famous fathers.The Carolina Panthers selected Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) with the eighth pick. Horn’s father, Joe Horn, was a standout wide receiver best known for using a cellphone as a prop in a touchdown celebration against the Giants in 2003. Horn used a flip phone, retroactively making the gag a “dad joke.”Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) joined the Denver Broncos with the ninth pick. His father played for the great Miami Dolphins defenses of the early 2000s, which are not well remembered mostly because their offenses were dreadful.Other second-generation cornerbacks will be drafted in later rounds, including Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr., whose dad allowed an Eli Manning interception to bounce off his hands in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII, making him the only New England Patriots player eligible for the Giants’ Ring of Honor.Leaping forward and trading back.The Jets traded up to the 14th pick from the 23rd pick (acquired from the Seattle Seahawks in last year’s Jamal Adams deal) to select Southern Cal offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker, who will provide some insurance against Wilson’s enduring too many early-career hits the way the last umpteen Jets quarterback prospects did.The Giants’ general manager, Dave Gettleman.Michael Conroy/Associated PressAs for the Giants, General Manager Dave Gettleman opted to trade down in the first round for the first time in his long career, sliding down from the 11th pick to net an extra first-round pick in 2022, plus change. In their adjusted spot at No. 20, the Giants selected the Florida all-purpose rusher-receiver Kadarius Toney.Gettleman said last week that he had always been amenable to trading down, but the price was never right. “I don’t want to get fleeced,” he said.No N.F.L. personality sounds more like a crotchety uncle haggling at a used car dealership than Gettleman, but he appears to have struck a shrewd deal this time.Rodgers, grudges and Green Bay.Aaron Rodgers in the workday uniform he currently prefers.Carol Kaelson/Jeopardy Productions, Inc., via Associated PressA report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter that a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers does not want to return to the Green Bay Packers sent shock waves across the league in the hours before the draft. Rodgers, the reigning most valuable player and a recent “Jeopardy!” guest host, was not-so-secretly miffed when the Packers drafted his potential replacement, Jordan Love, in last year’s first round and by other organizational decisions.The Packers could have selected a wide receiver with the 29th pick, which would have been the draft-day equivalent of a diamond brooch and a tearful apology. Instead, they chose Georgia cornerback Eric Stokes.While the Rodgers situation is still developing, few teams have the resources to trade for him. And if Rodgers chooses to retire, “Jeopardy!” would be better off hiring LeVar Burton. More

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      How to Watch the 2021 NFL Draft: Start Time, Streaming and Draft Order

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      A complete guide to some of the biggest questions surrounding the N.F.L. draft.The guessing will soon be over.After months of projections and rumors, the N.F.L. draft begins with the first round on Thursday, and with it comes a chance for all 32 teams to add new talent to their rosters. The coronavirus pandemic altered this year’s player evaluation process, but the end result will remain the same: More than 200 college players will formally be welcomed into the league during the three-day spectacle. Here’s what you need to know about it.What time is the draft?The first round of the N.F.L. draft starts Thursday at 8 p.m. Eastern time.ESPN, ABC and NFL Network will broadcast the event. It can be streamed through services like Hulu, Sling TV, fuboTV and the ESPN and N.F.L. apps.Where is the draft?Unlike in 2020, it won’t be held in N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell’s basement. The league. will convene in Cleveland this season for a hybrid model — some remote segments, some in-person — after Covid-19 forced the league last year to conduct the ceremonies virtually.Thirteen prospects will be on site to hug a vaccinated Goodell, if they so choose, after he calls their names. Others, including the presumed No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, a quarterback out of Clemson, will participate remotely. The N.F.L. also organized in-person musical performances and other events for fans in attendance.What’s the first round draft order?For the first 14 weeks of the 2020 season, the Jets were winless and seemed poised to inherit the No. 1 overall pick. But after winning two of their last three games, they forfeited that right and handed it to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost every game after the season opener.The San Francisco 49ers leapt nine spots when they acquired the third overall pick through a trade last month with the Miami Dolphins, who then traded with the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 6 pick. The Baltimore Ravens also reshuffled the order when they received the No. 31 pick from Kansas City in a trade package that included offensive tackle Orlando Brown.Kansas City, along with the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, does not have a first-round pick because of previous trades. The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Ravens each have two.1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay BuccaneersWho will be picked No. 1?All signs point to the Jaguars selecting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In three seasons as a starter, he led the Tigers to two national title games, winning after the 2018 season, and three consecutive College Football Playoff appearances. He lost only two games in his career at the South Carolina school.Lawrence declined the N.F.L.’s invitation to attend the draft in person and instead will watch with his wife, Marissa, and family at their home near Clemson. Along with the newly hired Coach Urban Meyer, he will be charged with improving a franchise that has historically struggled to win. Since 2008, the Jaguars have finished above .500 only once.If everyone knows who will be picked first, where is the drama?Unless the Jets drift from their expected plan of selecting Brigham Young quarterback Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick, the suspense starts with San FranciscoThe 49ers’ trade package to the Dolphins included two future first-round picks, a steep price San Francisco felt comfortable paying to add a quarterback. Their current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, has been sidelined with major injuries, playing in fewer than seven games in two of the last three seasons.Alabama’s Mac Jones, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are the leading candidates to be picked by the 49ers. While Jones is an accurate pocket passer, Lance and Fields can throw and be effective runners, adding another stress to a defense and expanding Coach Kyle Shanahan’s playbook.But the 49ers can only pick one of them, leaving a bevy of options for the Atlanta Falcons with the fourth overall pick. Their franchise quarterback, Matt Ryan, 35, is the second-oldest quarterback in the N.F.C. South, and though he arguably has productive seasons ahead of him, Coach Arthur Smith and General Manager Terry Fontenot, who both were hired this winter, may elect to start the line of succession.Florida tight end Kyle Pitts could also make sense for the Falcons, especially since teams have reportedly tried to gauge their interest in trading the star receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta could swap picks with a team searching for a quarterback and choose from talented players later in the first round.What about players who opted out of their college seasons?More than 100 Division I players opted out of the 2020 college football season because of coronavirus concerns. Some of those players are expected to come off the board early, despite not having played a live snap in more than a year.The Bengals, with the fifth pick, are expected to be the first team to select a player who opted out since the best available non-quarterbacks align with some of the team’s many, many needs. Cincinnati could either bolster its offensive line, which surrendered the third-most sacks in the N.F.L. last season, by drafting Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell. Or it could reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with receiver Ja’Marr Chase, one of his teammates from Louisiana State’s national championship team.Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau and Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater are also projected first-round selections who opted out of the 2020 season. More

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      Here Are The Needs for the Biggest Movers in the NFL Draft

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      San Francisco traded for the No. 3 pick to select a quarterback, and Baltimore traded into the first round, sending Orlando Brown to Kansas City, to reload for the future.The top of the N.F.L. draft quaked late last month when the Miami Dolphins, the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles swung what amounted to a three-team trade. The bottom of it shuddered on Friday when the Baltimore Ravens acquired another first-round pick.In March, the Dolphins sent the No. 3 pick in the draft to San Francisco for the No. 12 pick this year, first- and third-round picks in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023. Then they shipped the No. 12 pick and a fourth-rounder this year and a first-rounder in 2022 to the Eagles, who gave Miami the No. 6 pick and a fifth-round selection.Those teams have not tipped off their draft targets — though 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan faces questions nearly every day about his team’s quarterback position — but here are their needs ahead of Thursday night’s first round:No. 3 Pick: San Francisco 49ers (From Miami)Both Justin Fields and Mac Jones have been speculated as targets for the San Francisco 49ers with the No. 3 pick in the 2021 N.F.L. draft.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesMichael Reaves/Getty ImagesWith Jacksonville set to pick Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and the Jets most likely taking Zach Wilson at No. 2, this is where the draft begins and where all the speculation finally, mercifully, ceases. After trading with the Dolphins to move up nine spots last month, the 49ers are taking a quarterback to sit behind, or supplant, Jimmy Garoppolo this year. Their choice will reveal much about Kyle Shanahan’s vision.Does he value an accurate, mechanically sound pocket passer who can execute a scheme designed to yield completions and yards after receptions? If so, come on down, Mac Jones of Alabama.But after watching Patrick Mahomes toast the 49ers in the Super Bowl to cap the 2019 season and seeing Josh Allen shred them in Week 13 last season, Shanahan could be craving a mobile quarterback. He has Justin Fields of Ohio State and Trey Lance of North Dakota State to choose between. That decision will fling the rest of the top 10 into chaos.No. 6 Pick: Miami Dolphins (From Philadelphia)L.S.U. receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who opted out of the 2020 college football season, could be available when the Dolphins select sixth.David J. Phillip/Associated PressThe Dolphins want to put quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a better position for success in his second N.F.L. season. Their trades with Philadelphia and San Francisco guarantee that they can do so with the sixth overall pick, where at least one receiver among Ja’Marr Chase of Louisiana State and Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith of Alabama, or the unicorn tight end Kyle Pitts of Florida, will be available. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell of Oregon could also be available.Miami is picking here because a video surfaced minutes before the 2016 draft of the offensive tackle prospect Laremy Tunsil wearing a gas mask and appearing to smoke marijuana through a bong. To explain: Because of the video, Tunsil was selected at No. 13, lower than expected, by Miami. After developing him into one of the league’s best tackles, the Dolphins, as they stripped their roster for a rebuild, were able to trade a package that included him to the Houston Texans in 2019 for a package that included three draft picks, including the third pick in this year’s draft.No. 12 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami, via San Francisco)Either the Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, left, or Jaylen Waddle, right, of Alabama, would be a welcome addition to the Eagles, who are looking to upgrade the receiver position.Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesBy trading back from the sixth pick and obtaining a 2022 first-round pick in the process, the Eagles signaled that they would replenish their aging roster under their new coach, Nick Sirianni. The move collects a raft of picks for 2022, when, hopefully, the college football schedule returns to normal and teams can better evaluate prospects.Maybe most important to Eagles fans, it confirmed that Philadelphia was not interested in selecting a quarterback high or displacing Jalen Hurts — at least not this year. With two first-round picks in 2022, and possibly a third if Carson Wentz reaches playing time benchmarks in Indianapolis, the Eagles are positioned to acquire a quarterback next off-season if Hurts flops.As for this year, the Eagles need receivers and upgrades at a lot of other positions. If Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith from Alabama is available, General Manager Howie Roseman may be tempted. If neither is, and if he doesn’t like the talent at another need position (like, say, cornerback), he might just trade out again.No. 31 Pick: Baltimore Ravens (From Kansas City)Baltimore traded away the Pro Bowl offensive lineman Orlando Brown to gain a first-round pick in this year’s draft and stockpiled future selections.Brett Carlsen/Associated PressThe Ravens on Friday traded a player at a premium position, the Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown, to Kansas City for this pick and others. It might have seemed peculiar, helping the best team in the conference get better at protecting Patrick Mahomes’s blind side, but Ravens General Manager Eric DeCosta values draft choices. For unloading Brown, he got three others spread across the next two years.Baltimore, which also picks at No. 27, now has options, either to trade up, to bolster its receiving corps or to improve a pass rush that lost the free-agent defensive end Matt Judon to New England in the off-season.Full 2021 N.F.L. Draft Order1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers More

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      After Trevor Lawrence, Pick Another Quarterback

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      With no shortage of teams looking for a passer to build around, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones figure to shape the draft’s top 10 picks.There is no drama as to who will be the No. 1 pick in this year’s N.F.L. draft. The only question had been which team would get the chance to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville Jaguars secured that honor by way of the Jets’ seemingly not understanding that they were supposed to keep losing.So with the knowledge that Lawrence, a Peyton Manning-like sure thing of a quarterback prospect, is going to Jacksonville to be paired with Coach Urban Meyer in a college-meets-pros marriage, here is a look at the other four quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10 of this year’s draft, which will begin on Thursday with the first round held in Cleveland.Zach Wilson: The GunslingerZach Wilson’s devil-may-care attitude and prolific numbers endeared him to college fans and to the Jets, which pick second in Thursday’s N.F.L. draft.Steve Conner/Associated PressCollege: Brigham Young (two-plus seasons as a starter)Size: 6 feet 2 inches, 214 pounds2020 Passing: 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 196.4 rating2020 Rushing: 254 yards, 10 touchdownsThe reason Wilson is considered the consensus No. 2 pick: Aaron Rodgers. The reason the Jets, who hold the selection, might want to show at least a little caution: Johnny Manziel. Wilson has a strong and accurate arm, improvises well outside the pocket and has off-the-charts confidence — all the charisma and competitiveness that Rodgers and Manziel have in common.But that approach yielded different outcomes for those two gunslingers in the pros, where Rodgers’s size and off-field steadiness were among the traits that made him more successful. Wilson’s daring did not work all that well against top competition in college, where he went 2-4 against top-25 teams, and it’s an open question whether it will work against disciplined N.F.L. defenses.Wilson, 21, missed games in 2019 for surgeries on his shoulder and thumb, but if his 2020 season was a true reflection of his skill, the team drafting Wilson is getting a truly special quarterback.Outlook: The Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers in early April and it is considered nearly certain that they are set on Wilson as his replacement.Justin Fields: The Dual ThreatJustin Fields led Ohio State’s romp over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. He and Alabama’s Mac Jones are both rumored to be the target of the San Francisco 49ers, which traded up to the No. 3 pick.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Ohio State, transferred from Georgia (two seasons as a full-time starter)Size: 6-2, 228 pounds2020 Passing: 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 175.6 rating2020 Rushing: 383 yards, 5 touchdownsFields grew up a few towns over from Lawrence in Georgia and has been in his shadow at each step along the way, especially after Lawrence won the national championship as a freshman. Fields transferred from Georgia to Ohio State for his sophomore season in 2019 and was a Heisman Trophy finalist (Lawrence didn’t make the cut). Lawrence and Clemson beat Fields and Ohio State in that season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, but Fields got his revenge the next season as the Buckeyes trounced the Tigers in another semifinal matchup.Now Fields’s easiest comparison is to the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, another big-bodied pocket passer who can surprise with his running if there’s an opening. There is no question that Fields regressed in 2020 compared to his breakout 2019 season, when he threw for 3,273 yards with 41 touchdowns against three interceptions. His labored release and tendency to hold onto the ball resulted in his taking sacks, but his arm strength and versatility, along with his strong effort against Clemson in a pressure-packed game, have turned the volume down on any questions. So did his head-on handling of publicly detailing his epilepsy diagnosis, which he has managed since his childhood.Outlook: While not in the mix for the top two picks, Fields is the overwhelming favorite to be the third quarterback drafted Thursday, as his accuracy, his arm strength and his ability to run all make him an ideal fit for Coach Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco.Trey Lance: The Unproven StarAfter a breakout sophomore season, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance played in only one game in 2020.Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated PressCollege: North Dakota State (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-4, 226 pounds2019 Passing: 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 180.6 rating2019 Rushing: 1,100 yards, 14 touchdownsLance hasn’t lost a football game since Nov. 10, 2017, when his Marshall (Minn.) Tigers were topped by the South St. Paul Packers in Minnesota’s high school state quarterfinals. He hasn’t thrown an interception in a game since Oct. 13, 2017. After throwing only one pass at North Dakota State in his freshman year, he won the Walter Payton Award as the top player in the Football Championship Subdivision and led North Dakota State to an undefeated championship season in his lone year as a starter.N.D.S.U. played its only fall game on Oct. 3, 2020, before Lance declared for the draft, meaning six months have gone by since anyone has seen him throw a competitive pass. Little matter for the right team. Lance is known as a film room addict with atypical passing mechanics abetted by a quick-enough release. His array of devastating play fakes, combined with his speed and power as a runner, give Lance a skill set that should translate at the pro level.Outlook: Seemingly assured of being a top-10 pick, Lance is the fourth quarterback off the board in most mock drafts. His back story of people doubting his ability to handle the quarterback position is reminiscent of Lamar Jackson, his style of play is a little closer to Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz has proved that a player from N.D.S.U.’s program can succeed in the N.F.L. That is good company to keep.Mac Jones: The Question MarkMac Jones quarterbacked Alabama to a 13-0 record and the national championship with an offense that boasted an embarrassment of riches at every position.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Alabama (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-3, 217 pounds2020 Passing: 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 203.1 rating2020 Rushing: 14 yards, 1 touchdownsHaving come to Alabama in the same recruiting class as Tua Tagovailoa, and with Jalen Hurts entrenched at starter upon his arrival, it took a while before Jones got onto the field. It didn’t take Jones long to prove himself. As a fill-in starter in the 2019 season he led the Crimson Tide to a 2020 Citrus Bowl win, and in his lone season as the full-time starter he set a Football Bowl Subdivision single-season record for completion percentage with an eye-popping 77.4 percent.Jones’s accuracy, his strong-enough arm and his ability to move around in the pocket (even if he almost never runs) make him an attractive prospect. There are questions, though, about the frantic nature of his play, his slow release, how he will improvise when his first option isn’t available and how much of his success was a result of his team having been comically loaded at every position on offense.Outlook: Jones, 22, has been linked in some reports to San Francisco, which traded up to the No. 3 pick in late March. Shanahan watched his second pro day workout, as did New England’s Bill Belichick. The Patriots (who have the No. 15 pick) would have to trade into the top 10 to grab Jones before the quarterback-coveting Panthers (No. 8) and Broncos (No. 9) are on the clock. More