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    NFL Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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    Tom Brady faces Bill Belichick, the Rams and the Cardinals fight to stay undefeated, and the Browns’ pass rush travels to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Guess what? Tom Brady heads to Foxborough, Mass., to play the Patriots this weekend. You probably already knew that, though.Brady’s return to New England pits him against Coach Bill Belichick, with whom he won six Super Bowls over two decades. Brady is back in town with a freshly acquired Super Bowl ring and needing only 68 yards to break Drew Brees’s N.F.L. record for career passing yards. But there are other grudge matches around the N.F.L. in Week 4, including an N.F.C. West showdown between the unbeaten Rams and Cardinals and a scary Browns pass rush traveling to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 4, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 12-4All times Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s MatchupSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s other gamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s MatchupJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bengals -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Jaguars’ streak of allowing an average of 302.3 passing yards per game should continue this week against the Bengals (2-1) as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seem to have rediscovered their college chemistry in the pros.Burrow and Chase have connected for touchdown passes in each of their three games, including two last week in the 24-10 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Trevor Lawrence’s acclimation to the league has been rough; the rookie has thrown seven interceptions compared with only five touchdowns. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to score at will while the Jaguars (0-3) struggle to respond. Pick: Bengals -7.5Sunday’s Best GamesTampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 49After the pomp and circumstance around Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium as a visitor dies down, the game itself should be competitive. The Buccaneers (2-1) will have Antonio Brown back from the reserve/Covid list, but the team will be without slot receiver Scotty Miller, who has a toe injury, and potentially the pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, who sat out against the Los Angeles Rams with hand and shoulder injuries. The veteran free-agent cornerback Richard Sherman will join the team as its secondary battles injuries, though Coach Bruce Arians said he doubted Sherman would play on Sunday.Teams have not run effectively against Tampa Bay’s front seven and have instead exploited its defensive backs. The Bucs’ secondary has allowed opponents to throw for over 300 yards twice, including in a loss to the Rams last week, when Matthew Stafford tossed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Brady will be motivated to win, and the Bucs most likely will, but the secondary’s struggles give Mac Jones and the Patriots a chance to cover the spread. Pick: Patriots +6.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -6 | Total: 54.5Matthew Stafford’s connection with Cooper Kupp has made the receiver a fantasy football must-have. Kupp leads the N.F.L. in receiving yards (367) and touchdown receptions (5) and is tied at first for catches (25).Their chemistry will test the Cardinals’ defense, which has yet to face an offense as dynamic as the Rams’ (3-0). Though both teams are undefeated, the Cardinals (3-0) were saved from a loss to the Vikings in Week 2 by a shanked field-goal attempt and played down to the lowly Jaguars last week. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are unlikely to allow Kyler Murray to again put up video game numbers — he’s averaging 335 yards per game — and Rams Coach Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. He is likely to keep that streak alive. Pick: Rams -6Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week against the Bears, will hound Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins on Sunday.Kirk Irwin/Associated PressCleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -2 | Total: 53Kirk Cousins has yet to throw an interception this season, but the Browns (2-1) are the most complete defense the Vikings (1-2) will have seen.Cousins has thrown for more than 300 yards twice, including last week while running back Dalvin Cook was out with an ankle injury. Cook’s replacement, Alexander Mattison, rushed for 112 yards in his absence. It’s unclear whether Cook will play on Sunday, but if Cook returns or Mattison starts, the Browns’ defense will be up for the challenge. The unit ranks fifth in the league against the rush (201 yards allowed) and second in sacks (14). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense last week welcomed back receiver Odell Beckham Jr. from his knee injury. Those factors make betting with the Vikings tough, and the spread may honestly be too low. Pick: Browns -2Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: San Francisco -2.5 | Total: 52Hello, defense? Is anyone home? Pete Carroll must be asking his team that question after the Seahawks (1-2) allowed opponents to amass over 450 yards of offense in each of the last two games. No amount of Russell Wilson magic can save a game with those defensive performances.The 49ers (2-1) will be eager to play again after narrowly losing to the Packers on a last-second field goal. But they continue to battle injuries on both sides of the ball, with important players like tight end George Kittle (calf) and Josh Norman (lungs) listed as day-to-day. If Seattle can muster some sort of respectable defensive outing for pride’s sake, then the Seahawks could manage to be competitive and cover the spread. Pick: Seattle +2.5Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -1 | Total: 44Their undefeated record has come against winless opponents, so the Broncos (3-0) will try to get a statement win over the Ravens (2-1), who last week struggled before closing out the Lions. Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be without receiver K.J. Hamler, the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver, who tore his left anterior cruciate ligament in another big loss to the receiving corps after Jerry Jeudy was placed on injury reserve earlier in the season.After an overtime loss to open the season, the Ravens have closed out thrilling victories at home and on the road. They should be able to ride that momentum to give Denver its first loss. Pick: Ravens +1Sunday’s other gamesCarolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -4 | Total: 50Losing running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and cornerback Jaycee Horn (foot) should devastate the Panthers (3-0) and their chances of remaining undefeated. With McCaffrey out for “a few weeks,” according to Coach Matt Rhule, receiver D.J. Moore is the Panthers’ best offensive weapon. He is likely to be shadowed by the Cowboys’ top cornerback, Trevon Diggs, who has had an interception in every game this season.The Cowboys will keep up an aggressive offensive attack as the offensive coordinator Kellen Moore tries to exploit a secondary that hastily added C.J. Henderson via trade during the week. Until proven otherwise, expect the Panthers’ offense to backslide and struggle without McCaffrey as its workhorse. Pick: Cowboys -4Washington’s defense has underperformed so far this season. Led by defensive end Chase Young, it could bounce back against the Falcons.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressWashington Footballers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 48Oddsmakers are essentially predicting a tossup, largely because Washington has not played to its potential. The Footballers’ defense, in theory, should overpower the Falcons (1-2), as Atlanta has rushed for 100 yards only once and is still heavily relying on Matt Ryan’s arm at the ripe age of 36. But the Footballers (1-2) failed to sack Bills quarterback Josh Allen last week, and he dissected them for four touchdowns. Against a weaker offensive line, Washington should find more success. Pick: Footballers -1.5.Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -17 | Total: 48The line on this game is absurdly lopsided and rightfully so. The Bills’ defense generated three turnovers in each of the last two games. It is likely to feast on Davis Mills of the Texans (1-2), who threw for 168 yards and was sacked four times in his first N.F.L. start last week against Carolina. Mills is likely to do more to limit the production of Texans receiver Brandin Cooks than the Bills (2-1). Expect the score to get ugly quick. Pick: Bills -17Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -3 | Total: 42.5This could finally be the one.The Lions (0-3) have played competitively in first halves against playoff-caliber teams, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker had to convert a 66-yard field-goal attempt to rob Detroit of a win last week. That evasive W may come against the Bears (1-2), who posted 1 net passing yard (yes, you read that correctly) and allowed the rookie Justin Fields to take nine sacks against the Browns. Coach Matt Nagy said Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are all under consideration to start. The Lions could capitalize on that dysfunction. Pick: Lions +3Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -1.5 | Total: 43.5Injuries continue to plague the Colts (0-3), most recently with the All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson spraining his ankle and needing to be carted off the field last week. Coach Frank Reich did not rule out Nelson, but said his chances of playing were “not looking good.” Nelson’s availability would help against the Dolphins (1-2), who feature an aggressive and opportunistic defense. Miami’s backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, completed over 65 percent of his passes in an overtime loss to the Raiders in Week 3, showing he can manage the offense efficiently while Tua Tagovailoa’s ribs heal. If that responsible play continues and the defense generates pressure and turnovers, the Carson Wentz experiment in Indianapolis could remain winless. Pick: Dolphins -1.5Giants at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 43.5Giants receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton injured hamstrings in Week 3, potentially removing two of Daniel Jones’s favorite targets. He’ll need every asset the Giants (0-3) can offer to combat the inevitable deafening noise in the Superdome for the Saints’ first true home game of the season. The Saints (2-1), whose defense collected three interceptions last week against the Patriots, could produce a similar outing as Jones throws to receivers on the bottom of the depth chart. Pick: Saints -7.5Tennessee Titans at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 46Receiver A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury should not stop the Titans (2-1) from winning this game easily, given the team’s other formidable stars, running back Derrick Henry and receiver Julio Jones. The Jets, however, lack such options. The rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions to two touchdowns, and the Jets (0-3) have rushed for more than 100 yards only once. Even a developing defense like Tennessee’s should be able to contain the Jets’ attack. Pick: Titans -7.5Kansas City at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Kansas City -6 | Total: 54.5Kansas City (1-2) has had back-to-back losses only three times since 2018, making this uncommon territory for a perennial Super Bowl contender. They are likely to bounce back against the Eagles (1-2), who took a beating from Dallas on Monday and had a short week to prepare.Kansas City Coach Andy Reid reportedly returned to work Tuesday after being treated for dehydration after Sunday’s game. He will most likely preach ball security to his team, which committed six total turnovers in losses to the Ravens and the Chargers. If the Chiefs can fix those issues, their firepower should be too much for the Eagles’ young offense to respond. Pick: Kansas City -6Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 45.5The Steelers’ pedestrian offense has been a problem and now faces a Packers team (2-1) that is beginning to click. Pittsburgh’s quarterback weakness has been well documented, but Ben Roethlisberger ranks third in the N.F.L. in passing attempts in large part because the team has yet to rush for more than 75 yards in a game this season and its defense has given up first-quarter leads.The Steelers (1-2) are hopeful outside linebacker T.J. Watt (groin) will be available after missing last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers’s output should still far exceed that of the Steelers’ offense. Pick: Packers -6.5Monday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offensive line has allowed only five sacks of Justin Herbert this season, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), which could put it in a bind against defensive end Maxx Crosby and the Raiders.Kyusung Gong/Associated PressLas Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 52.5With Kansas City figuring out how to end its rut and the Broncos facing their first winning opponent, the Chargers or the Raiders will gain valuable ground in the A.F.C. West. The outcome will come down to whether the Chargers’ new-look offensive line can hold its own against the Raiders’ improved pass rush. The Chargers (2-1) have allowed only five sacks, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), including notable flags for illegal shifts in a loss to the Cowboys and a narrow win over the Chiefs.This one will have exceptional player matchups to watch — between the Chargers rookie tackle Rashawn Slater and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby, and Chargers safety Derwin James against Raiders tight end Darren Waller — but the Raiders (3-0) may have the edge if running back Josh Jacobs returns after missing two games with an ankle injury. Pick: Raiders +3.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Steelers -4.5, for example, means that Pittsburgh must beat Cincinnati by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      Matthew Stafford Wanted Big Games. Against Tom Brady's Bucs, He Got One.

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      After 12 seasons in Detroit with no postseason wins, the quarterback longed to play in big games. On Sunday he delivered, beating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Los Angeles.INGLEWOOD, Calif. — Matthew Stafford said he wanted these moments.After 12 seasons at quarterback in Detroit, where his biggest platform was the annual Thanksgiving afternoon game and his performances played second fiddle to TV viewers’ turkey dinners, Stafford, 33, asked to be traded. He wanted to play against quality competition in games that mattered.Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford got that opportunity. Billed as a prospective preview of the N.F.C. championship game and contested in front of celebrities like Mike Tyson and Jason Sudeikis, Stafford faced the ferocious pass rush that fueled the Bucs’ Super Bowl win last season and Tom Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback of all time.Stafford outshone them all. The Rams beat the Buccaneers, 34-24, thanks to his strong arm and smart decisions, along with a stout performance by Los Angeles’s defense. Granted, Stafford’s showing — 343 passing yards, four touchdowns and zero turnovers — came against a secondary handicapped by injuries.But in front of more than 73,000 fans, Stafford showed he could make the throws necessary to make playing a Super Bowl at home in SoFi Stadium this season a reality. Afterward, he downplayed the significance of the win.“Every time we go out there it is a big one,” Stafford said in a postgame news conference. “It was a big challenge for us but it was nice for us to go out there and play our game.”His flatline response was a stark contrast to the ballast from both teams leading into a game players called a barometer to determine their standing in the league. Both were undefeated, viewed as among the best in the conference and the N.F.L. When they met last November, Brady and the former Rams quarterback Jared Goff attempted a combined 99 passes and racked up 592 yards in the air as the Rams barely won a shootout, 27-24.Their 2020 seasons diverged. Tampa Bay won eight of its last nine games en route to the Super Bowl. The Rams, bitten by irresponsible play from Goff, wasted the effort of the league’s top-ranked defense toward the end of the season and exited in the divisional round of the playoffs.But the Rams did not have Stafford last season, and his play offered glimpses of what Coach Sean McVay’s offense could achieve with a quarterback capable of placing the ball anywhere on the field.Stafford completed a 75-yard touchdown pass to DeSean Jackson, the veteran receiver, in the third quarter, and connected on two touchdown passes to receiver Cooper Kupp and one to tight end Tyler Higbee. After the scoring throw to Jackson, whom Stafford had missed connecting with twice earlier in the game, McVay became so excited that he sprinted down the sideline to greet Jackson in a stadium tunnel.But perhaps Stafford’s most important throw did not directly account for any points.Midway into the third quarter, Brady orchestrated a 75-yard touchdown drive to cut Los Angeles’s lead to 21-14. Facing third-and-10 from the Rams’ 25-yard line, Stafford fired a pass to receiver Robert Woods for 20 yards, converting on a crucial play instead of giving the ball back to Brady with an opportunity to tie the score.Three plays later, Stafford connected with Jackson for a 40-yard catch and run to set up Kupp’s second touchdown, a 10-yard catch.The Rams often failed in long-yardage situations last season in part because they lacked an explosive deep threat at receiver and because Goff struggled when defenses did not need to respect the run or play-action. Now, with Stafford at the helm, McVay can unleash a variety of play calls he could not in 2020.“As an offense, you always don’t want to be stagnate,” Kupp said of the unit’s design with Stafford. “Our job as an offense is to not be stuck doing the same thing over and over again but be able to have answers off it and make things look the same but be different.”Still, the Buccaneers played competitively, considering how short-handed they were. Receiver Antonio Brown was not available after testing positive for the coronavirus this week. Pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul also did not play because of hand and shoulder injuries.The secondary lost cornerback Jamel Dean in the first quarter to a knee injury, a blow to a position group that had already been depleted with starter Sean Murphy-Bunting on injured reserve. McVay and Stafford exploited those absences early as receivers slipped past coverages and behind defenders with ease.Brady, a California native who had never played an N.F.L. game in Los Angeles, finished with 432 yards and one touchdown pass. He also rushed for a score. The Rams’ defense hit Brady five times and sacked him three times, including a tackle by Aaron Donald that forced a fumble that the Buccaneers recovered. Though at times it gave up chunk plays, Los Angeles’s defense generally rallied to ball carriers for tackles and ultimately limited Tampa Bay to only 35 rushing yards. Brady led the team with 14.“They played the kind of game they wanted to play,” Brady said. “If we’re going to be a team like that, we have to play well in all phases.”Stafford and the Rams enter a critical stretch of the schedule, facing two N.F.C. West rivals, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, in Weeks 4 and 5. Those matchups will matter for playoff seeding in the new 17-game regular season. After that, Stafford will be the one ensuring that he and the Rams have even bigger games in which to play. More

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      Cooper Kupp of the Rams Manages Work-Life Balance During Covid

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyTalk About a Tricky Assignment. He’s Trying to Catch a Ball and a Baby.Covid-19 is forcing N.F.L. players and other pro athletes to make unusually hard decisions about work-life balance.Cooper Kupp, Rams wide receiver and father-to-be, at his home in Los Angeles.Credit…Maggie Shannon for The New York TimesJan. 8, 2021Updated 8:28 p.m. ETCooper Jameson Kupp Jr. — nicknamed June, as in Junior, by his parents — did not know the significance behind the note his mother asked him to deliver last May. But the 2-year-old eagerly complied, bouncing over to his father.Cooper Kupp, a sure-handed receiver for the Los Angeles Rams, scanned the piece of paper, then leapt past his surprised son to embrace his wife, Anna Kupp. The message: June would soon be a big brother.Disbelief washed over Cooper.June had been a blessing, arriving shortly after the couple decided to start a family. “This time, the second time around, it took a little longer,” Cooper said during a recent Zoom call. “This was something we were trying for and just hadn’t happened for us yet.”Suddenly, the couple needed a game plan. Navigating a pregnancy is strenuous for any expectant parent. For professional athletes, unyielding schedules can intrude on family obligations under the best of conditions. In the N.F.L., rigid coronavirus protocols have forced players to make tough work-life decisions as they trudge through the pandemic season.For the Kupps, the gift of a pregnancy has meant living in different cities and enduring the longest separation of their marriage at a time when they desperately wanted to be together.And that was before a positive Covid-19 test came into their lives.At the time Anna became pregnant, it wasn’t clear the N.F.L. would even play this season. But when spring turned into summer and a schedule was firmed up, the Kupps began to coordinate their plans with the league’s.Anna is due in late January. The couple didn’t know if the pandemic would still be raging then, how Los Angeles hospitals would cope, or how Covid would affect a pregnant woman. They knew this much: They hoped Cooper would still be playing football. If so, it meant his Rams had made the playoffs.The toughest and most pressing decision was whether to live together as the due date drew closer. If Anna’s labor came on suddenly, their families would not be able to quickly fly to Southern California because they’d first have to quarantine and test.As the Kupps prayed, debated and examined possibilities, players arriving at the same crossroads publicly voiced concern.In November, the couple decided that Anna would fly to the home they recently purchased just outside Portland, Ore. She would settle into the house and get through the final stages of pregnancy with help from her two sisters, who live nearby.The date Anna was set to leave, Dec. 16, was just another day at work for Cooper. As always, he woke up and said goodbye to his family before heading to the team’s facility.One step at a time, Anna thought. She finished readying suitcases and the family dog, Elouise. June managed to splash in a giant mud puddle just before they left home, and Anna scrambled to find a bathroom once they arrived at the airport terminal.Anna and June left sunny Southern California and arrived in the rain of the Pacific Northwest, a shift Anna appreciated “because I was sweating putting everything together,” she said.Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is coming off the Covid-19 list in time for the Rams’ playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks.Credit…Stephen Brashear/Associated PressAfter a day of practice, Cooper returned to a suddenly empty home. The day no longer felt normal. He would have liked to distract himself with more time at work, but team officials allow players inside the facilities only at designated times.And there is only so much film one can watch at home.“How much I would just give anything now to have an hour to hang out with my little boy, but I can’t,” Cooper said on the Zoom call from Thousand Oaks. Anna joined the call from Oregon.“That’s how that really hit me, early on was just how incredible those moments are in person. You can’t get a whole lot done over FaceTime with a 2-year-old,” Cooper said.They did not know how long they would be apart — three, five, seven weeks? — only that it would be their longest separation since they married in 2015, the summer between Cooper’s sophomore and junior season at Eastern Washington.They met in high school at a track and field event. Anna was a serious heptathlete on another team. Cooper had joined his school’s team to spend time with his buddies.June isn’t the only one who can miss the meaning behind a message. Cooper did not get the hint when Anna first approached him, but redeemed himself when he saw her at the next meet. Spotting her walking his way, he pretended to tie his shoes long enough to be within earshot. He asked for her phone number. “I was sure I was going to marry her then,” he said.Several years and one toddler later, the Kupps did their best to get through the holidays apart. On Christmas morning, Anna FaceTimed with Cooper. He watched June spending time with his cousins, excitedly opening presents. Cooper sent Anna a present that she refuses to open until they are reunited.“You want your son to have his dad, especially on a holiday like that, but we’ll celebrate together in a few weeks and it’ll be good,” Anna said.Tears formed in her eyes during the Zoom call as she recalled that day.Anna Kupp and June with Cooper Kupp on FaceTime at Christmas.Credit…Kupp Family“The hormones are getting Anna,” Cooper said.“I know,” she said. “I’m 37 weeks pregnant.”The Kupps weren’t looking for affirmation for their decision to live apart. They got some anyway when Cooper received a positive Covid-19 test in late December.“I guess there’s a little bit of a blessing in disguise that Anna and June aren’t here for this,” he said. “Having potentially brought this back to them if they were here would be a pretty scary thing.”The result surprised Cooper, who has not had any symptoms and hadn’t interacted with anyone outside of his team’s practice facility.“Both of us were wracking our brain like, ‘Where did this come from? How did this even come about?’” Anna said.The Rams went into Week 17 needing a win, or some help, to clinch a playoff berth, but they would have to play without Cooper and their injured quarterback, Jared Goff. The Rams scrapped for an ugly victory over the Arizona Cardinals as Cooper watched from Southern California, continuously pacing instead of sitting, and Anna from the Pacific Northwest. Cooper has passed subsequent tests, and he returned to practice on Wednesday.They have made it to January with Cooper available for Saturday’s first-round playoff matchup against the Seattle Seahawks and Anna set to deliver their second child at their new home.No one could have planned for 2020.Their 2021, however, is so far going according to schedule.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More