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      Is the Salary Cap a Myth?

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn Pro FootballIs the Salary Cap a Myth?A Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should not be fiscally possible on paper, but here we are.Important role players, like Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins, right, signed one-year contracts made possible because quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be paid the bulk of his 10-year, $477 million contract in 2023 and beyond.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesJan. 28, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ETKansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’s listed base salary for the 2020 season is $825,000, a princely sum for ordinary folks but $85,000 less than the base salary of his teammate James Winchester, a valuable but obscure long snapper.Tom Brady’s 2020 base salary of $15 million for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is more in line with expectations for an N.F.L. quarterback, if not for a six-time Super Bowl champion and era-defining player. For example, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brady’s backup when they played for the New England Patriots, earned a base salary of $23.8 million for an injury-plagued and disappointing 2020 season for the San Francisco 49ers, while Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr had a base salary of $18.9 million for another season of his established late-model family sedan caliber play.This season’s Super Bowl matchup should not be fiscally possible on paper. The N.F.L.’s salary cap was supposed to have torn the Chiefs’ roster apart after their Super Bowl victory last season; Mahomes’s performance would command a contract that by itself had the potential to force the team into receivership. Similarly, the Buccaneers’ star-studded lineup of Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Ndamukong Suh, Antonio Brown and Jason Pierre-Paul — each a market-setter at his position at some point in his career — should be so prohibitively expensive as to force the team to fill the lower half of its roster with temps and interns.The fact that the Chiefs and the Buccaneers kept their rosters intact appears to support the popular theory that the salary cap is a myth, a fiction used by franchises as an excuse to cut unwanted veterans, pinch pennies and fall short of expectations. The cap is in fact very real, but its arcane rules about bonuses, incentives and proration make N.F.L. cap management more like sorcery than an art or a science. And the voodoo economics the Chiefs and the Buccaneers are dabbling in could someday come with a steep price.Mahomes, as you may recall, signed a reported 10-year, $477 million contract extension in July. It was the sort of contract that would force a mortgage lender to accept a plea bargain — full of deferred bonuses, staggered guarantees and balloon payments designed to forestall Mahomes’s biggest paydays until 2023 and beyond. As a result, his 2020 compensation (base salary plus bonuses) counted for just $5.34 million against the salary cap, which allowed the Chiefs to re-sign important players like the Pro Bowl defensive tackle Chris Jones despite little apparent maneuvering room in their theoretical budget. Even Mahomes’s future compensation will come mostly in the form of bonuses instead of salary, allowing for further feats of accounting magical realism.Mahomes can afford to wait on his $40-plus million paydays because he is in high demand as an advertising pitchman, and successful quarterbacks are all but guaranteed long, lucrative careers. Brady is also a brand unto himself (and, as the spouse of an international celebrity, Gisele Bündchen, he brings in his household’s second income), but he has taken the opposite approach throughout his career by accepting short contracts full of guaranteed money. Lesser quarterbacks earn more than Brady in any given year, but he is always near the top of the N.F.L.’s wage earners and rarely more than a year away from another renegotiation and raise.Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady is always near the top of the N.F.L.’s highest paid players in part because of the strength of his brand.Credit…Scott Eisen/Getty ImagesThe Brady and Mahomes situations illustrate that salary cap alchemy typically boils down to compensating the superstar quarterback first, then fitting the rest of the budget around him. With a relatively affordable Brady in the fold, the Buccaneers could extend one-year offers to Brown, Gronkowski and Suh, veterans willing to sign for less than their market value to join forces with Brady and pursue a championship.Similarly, important role players like Sammy Watkins and Bashaud Breeland, who re-signed with the Chiefs, and Le’Veon Bell, who signed as a free agent, were given one-year contracts made possible because Mahomes is being paid in tomorrow bucks. The appeal of a likely Super Bowl run couldn’t have hurt, either.Even the cleverest cap model can backfire if a team cannot use success to sustain success. The Saints used reverse mortgage “die broke” tactics to pay Drew Brees through many years of Super Bowl near misses. With Brees’s retirement imminent, the Saints are so deep in deferred cap debt (an estimated $112 million) that they may be forced to pad their 2021 roster with season-ticket holders. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams overpaid quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Jared Goff (plus other top veterans) after trips to the Super Bowl in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. The Eagles are now facing an existential crisis, while the Rams are subsisting on the cap equivalent of maxed-out credit cards.After the Super Bowl, a long list of in-house free agents (including starters like Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Chris Godwin, plus the aforementioned mercenaries) will be vying for the Buccaneers’ very limited cap space while Brady, who turns 44 in August, prepares to once again plays chess with his own mortality. Even with all of their finagling, the Chiefs will enter the off-season an estimated $18 million over the cap, meaning that next season’s Chiefs probably won’t be as good as this season’s Chiefs. Both teams in this Super Bowl needed to get there to justify their efforts to stay one step ahead of the collection agency.There is much more to “salary cap-enomics” than finding innovative ways to squeeze a Mahomes or a Brady into a budget — from extending in-house contracts before valued veterans reach free agency to avoiding spending sprees at positions like running back, where talent is plentiful and replaceable. Mostly, however, there’s no mystery to cap management, just the question of whether a team chooses to pay for its Super Bowl run today, tomorrow or by tacking almost a half-billion dollars onto the back end. Age and deferred debt eventually catch up to everyone. Even Tom Brady. Someday. Probably.All cap data comes from OverTheCap.com.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Playoffs: What We Learned From the Conference Championship

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From the N.F.L.’s Conference ChampionshipsThe Chiefs will try to defend their Super Bowl title against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers — who are playing at home.Patrick Mahomes is headed back to the Super Bowl. The 25-year-old has a chance to be the first quarterback to win the game in back-to-back years since Tom Brady did it after the 2003 and 2004 seasons.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesPublished More

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      NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference Championships

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference ChampionshipsWith a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Tom Brady leads Tampa Bay into Green Bay while Josh Allen and the Bills take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.The conference championship games have M.V.P. candidates on each team: Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.Credit…Clockwise from top left: Brynn Anderson/Associated Press; Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press; Jamie Squire/Getty Images; Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressJan. 21, 2021Updated 9:42 a.m. ETA complicated and stressful N.F.L. season is nearing its conclusion, with four star-studded teams facing off on Sunday with a Super Bowl appearance on the line. Each of the remaining teams has a Most Valuable Player Award candidate at quarterback, stars at wide receiver and defenses that can make big plays. The questions for this weekend include which of the N.F.C.’s celebrated quarterbacks will make his return to the Super Bowl and whether the upstart Buffalo Bills can knock off the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.Here is a look at the conference championship games. Unlike in the regular season, the picks in the playoffs are not made against the spread to emphasize which teams we believe will win.Playoff record: 8-8N.F.C. Championship GameTampa Bay has numerous receiving options, but Mike Evans, at 6 feet 5 inches, is a dominant force in the red zone.Credit…Brynn Anderson/Associated PressDavante Adams of the Green Bay Packers had a career year, with 1,374 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns.Credit…Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers, 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FoxLine: Packers -3 | Total: 51More than a hundred players will suit up for this game, but the spotlight will fall on two of them: Tom Brady of the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. It isn’t unusual for quarterbacks to command most of the attention, but this matchup goes beyond that.Brady, with more career touchdown passes and more Super Bowl wins than any other player, had a terrific 2020 season, throwing 40 touchdown passes and ending Tampa Bay’s long postseason drought. Rodgers, a two-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award and one-time winner of the Super Bowl, had perhaps the best season of his career, throwing 48 touchdown passes while leading the N.F.C.’s top team.The quarterbacks have combined to start 551 games, including in the postseason. But largely as a result of playing in different conferences for most of their careers, they have faced off as starters just three times. Two came in Brady’s time with the New England Patriots, with Brady beating the Packers in 2018 and Rodgers beating the Patriots in 2014. They faced each other in Week 6 of this season, with the Buccaneers winning, 38-10. It was the Packers’ lowest scoring game of the year.Brady, 43, has a career edge in accomplishments. Rodgers, who is six years younger, has a physical edge. After a few quiet seasons, by his standards, Rodgers in 2020 used wide receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to shred defenses as the Packers led the N.F.L. in scoring and finished fifth in total yardage. Brady’s statistics were also impressive, but he is more physically limited than he was in the past, frequently relying on talented receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski to turn short passes into long gains.In a more neutral environment, Tampa Bay could have counted on its young defense to shift the balance in the Buccaneers’ favor by pressuring Rodgers. In that scenario, the team would rely on Brady to put up points against a good defense that is not nearly as explosive. But in Green Bay, with snow showers in the forecast and a game-time temperature expected to be around 30 degrees, a team from Florida — even one with a New England icon at quarterback — will be out of its element.The Packers fought hard to secure home field advantage throughout the N.F.C. playoffs, and this game should reward them for that effort, ending the Buccaneers’ attempt to be the first team to appear in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. Pick: PackersA.F.C. Championship GameStefon Diggs was acquired by Buffalo in an off-season trade. He responded with the best season of his career.Credit…Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTravis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs set an N.F.L. record with 1,416 yards receiving as a tight end.Credit…Reed Hoffmann/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. Sunday, CBSLine: Chiefs -3 | Total: 53.5The Chiefs’ pursuit of a second straight Super Bowl victory hit its first real speed bump last weekend when Patrick Mahomes had his neck twisted by a defender as he was dragged to the turf, putting him in the N.F.L.’s concussion protocol and forcing him out of Kansas City’s 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs iced that victory with key plays by the backup quarterback, Chad Henne, but Mahomes’s absence was palpable in a game Kansas City was expected to win in a blowout.Mahomes has practiced lightly this week while working to be cleared, but there is little fear he will miss the game. As a result, the A.F.C. will get a strength-against-strength matchup between the conference’s best teams of the regular season.The Bills had an offensive renaissance this season thanks to the development of quarterback Josh Allen and the arrival of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They led Buffalo to the second most points in the league and its first division title since 1995. While the defense took a major step backward from a brilliant 2019 season, a strong performance last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens proved the unit could be great when needed.Buffalo might have to play a perfect game to compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs stormed back to win last season’s Super Bowl behind Mahomes’s brilliance, and lost only two games in the 2020 season — one a meaningless Week 17 game in which Mahomes and other starters were rested. The Chiefs will be at their best if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns from a Week 16 hip injury, but the offense has plenty of options without him, including wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.The Chiefs are the clear favorites, particularly at home, but Buffalo should not be counted out. If its defense can play the way it did in the divisional round and Allen can avoid mistakes, the Bills can turn this into quite a fight. But the most likely result is a Kansas City victory, which would give the Chiefs the chance to be the first team since the Patriots in the 2003 and 2004 seasons to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Pick: Chiefs.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Is the N.F.L. Over Punting?

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn FootballIs the N.F.L. Over Punting?Analytics-minded observers have long argued against punting, but what may finally persuade N.F.L. coaches to go for it on fourth down is another postseason with high-profile successes.San Francisco 49ers punter Mitch Wishnowsky punted during a game against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2020-21 N.F.L. season.Credit…Brandon Wade/Associated PressJan. 21, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ETAs a tactic for winning football games, punting makes little sense. Basketball teams don’t stop rebounding and offer the ball to the opponent if they miss a few jumpers. Baseball teams don’t reach an 0-2 count with two outs and declare: “Oh well, the odds are against us. You’re up!” Yet football coaches, those self-styled battle-hardened generals, have been meekly surrendering on fourth downs for decades.The punt, a holdover from football’s rugby-related roots, has been part of the N.F.L.’s calcified conventional wisdom for generations. But the tactic has fallen on hard times in recent years. The events of this year’s playoffs could push the punt to the verge of extinction. When Chiefs Coach Andy Reid made the bold fourth-quarter decision in Kansas City’s divisional-round playoff victory over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, he may have launched the meteor.Reid’s Chiefs appeared to be trying to lure the Browns defense offsides before an evitable punt on fourth-and-inches while protecting a narrow 22-17 lead. Instead, the Chiefs snapped the ball and surprised the defense with a short pass that allowed them to run out the clock instead of giving the Browns a chance to attempt a desperate final touchdown drive.Reid’s daring decision was the latest development in what has become a postseason referendum on punting. Moments earlier, the Browns had punted despite trailing in the fourth quarter, hoping their defense could stop a Chiefs offense missing the injured superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It could not.In the previous week’s wild-card round, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans punted in late-game, short-yardage situations while trailing, only to allow the Browns and Baltimore Ravens to score on the next possession, extend their leads and ultimately win both games.Punting has become far less prevalent in recent years. N.F.L. teams punted an average of 3.7 times per game during the 2020 regular season, the lowest figure in recorded pro football history. Teams averaged 4.8 punts per game as recently as 2017, a rate that had held more-or-less steady since the mid-1980s but has declined in each of the last four seasons.The sudden decrease in punting comes over a decade after the football analytics community began decrying the punt as a counterproductive strategy, particularly in short-yardage situations near midfield or when trailing late in a close game. It doesn’t take much number crunching to realize that if the average offense gains 5.6 yards per play (the 2020 rate), not only should a team be able to pick up a yard or two on fourth down, but it should also be wary of gifting the ball to an opposing offense capable of marching right back down the field 5.6 yards at a time.Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill made the catch on fourth down to end the Browns’ chance to come back on Sunday.Credit…Reed Hoffmann/Associated PressFans have become increasingly aware of the analytics of punting, thanks to social media accounts that provide real-time calculations of a team’s chances of winning based on various in-game decisions. However, it takes a long time for anything remotely scientific to gain acceptance in a league where coaches have been passing down both sacred tactical oral wisdom and tough-guy rhetoric since the days of George Halas.In the primordial N.F.L. of the 1920s, it was common for a superstar like Jim Thorpe to punt on first down if his team was pinned near its own goal line. The early-down punt disappeared at about the same time as the leather helmet, but punting on fourth down in most circumstances (when not in field-goal range) became the unquestioned norm at all levels of play. That made sense at the time. In the early 1950s, N.F.L. teams averaged less than five yards per play and committed well over three turnovers per game (the 2020 turnover rate was just 1.3 per game), so there was a decent chance that the punting team would quickly get the ball back.Offenses have grown steadily more efficient since the late 1970s. Yet most coaches remained convinced that even a fourth-and-inches conversion attempt was as nearly as risky as betting the deed to the farm on the hope of a royal flush.Conversion attempts gradually increased as mavericks like New England Patriots Coach Bill Belichick (who has an economics degree) and then-Panthers coach Ron Rivera (whose nickname is Riverboat Ron) enjoyed success with fourth-and-short “gambles” over the last two decades. Doug Pederson, the former Philadelphia Eagles head coach, bucked conventional wisdom in Super Bowl LII with several high-risk fourth-down conversions, including the Philly Special (a goal-line trick play for a touchdown run in a typical field-goal situation) and a fourth-and-1 pass while protecting a fourth-quarter lead, which was similar to Reid’s decision on Sunday.A few high-profile anecdotes carry more weight in the N.F.L. than a mountain of statistical research, so it’s no surprise that punt rates began dropping precipitously after Super Bowl LII. The last two weeks of playoff results will likely further sour coaches on punting when they have no other viable options.There will always be a place for the punt on fourth-and-15 from the shadow of a team’s own goal posts. And in a league full of traditionalists who still chant mantras like “establish the run” and “defense wins championships,” no strategy is likely to disappear overnight. But gradually, coaches will begin to wonder why they are replacing their multimillion-dollar quarterbacks in high-leverage situations with the player most likely to walk through a parking lot tailgate unrecognized, and why they preach aggressiveness all week during practice, only to timidly, and voluntarily, give the ball to their opponents with the game on the line.As soon as the tough guys and mathematicians finally agree about punting, they can start debating in earnest about settling for field goals.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Playoffs: What We Learned From the Divisional Round

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From the N.F.L.’s Divisional RoundThe Buffalo Bills rode their defense to victory while the Green Bay Packers thrived on offense. The Kansas City Chiefs, who lost Patrick Mahomes to a concussion, simply survived.Chad Henne is not known for his legs, but the veteran backup scrambled for a 13-yard gain late in the game helping set up his game-sealing pass to Tyreek Hill.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesJan. 17, 2021Updated 8:02 p.m. ETHome teams won the first three games of the N.F.L.’s divisional round, but there was plenty of fretting along the way. The Buffalo Bills rode their defense to a win, the Green Bay Packers relied on their offense and the heavily favored Kansas City Chiefs, who lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a concussion, mostly survived.Here’s what we learned:The Winners’ BracketChad Henne sealed the deal for the Chiefs to get to another AFC Championship game 🔥 @PatrickMahomes @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/Yk3Kay5CnW— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 17, 2021
      Andy Reid trusts Chad Henne. Forced into action after Mahomes’s concussion, Henne, a 35-year-old backup, showed determination, skill and a bit of recklessness in protecting Kansas City’s lead over the Cleveland Browns, helping to give the Chiefs a 22-17 victory and sending them to their third consecutive A.F.C. championship game. Henne’s performance wasn’t flawless — he threw a particularly ugly interception in the end zone — but Coach Andy Reid’s decision to have his backup attempt a pass on fourth-and-short to ice the game, rather than running or punting the ball away, was about as strong of an endorsement as a player can receive. And Henne will undoubtedly be reminding people about his wild 13-yard run on the preceding play for years to come.There is no question that Kansas City is hoping Mahomes can be back for next week’s game against the Buffalo Bills, but his injury — and injuries sustained by Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Aaron Donald of the Los Angeles Rams in their divisional round games — showed just how precarious each game can be in the N.F.L. Having a reliable backup can be the difference between winning and losing.A crowd of 8,456 fans was spread out in the stands of Green Bay’s Lambeau Field on Saturday. The team had not allowed fans to attend games during the regular season.Credit…Sarah Kloepping/USA Today Sports, via ReutersLambeau Field is ready for its (frigid) close-up. Green Bay’s stadium opened in 1957, and has been the site of several classic games, but it has seen relatively little action late in the playoffs. Thanks to Green Bay’s 32-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Saturday’s divisional round game, the Packers will host the N.F.C. championship game next Sunday — the 10th time in franchise history that Green Bay has played a game with a trip to the Super Bowl at stake. Most of those games, though, were on the road, with this being just the fourth time Lambeau has hosted such a game. The last resulted in a loss to the Giants in the 2007 season; Aaron Rodgers, still serving as Brett Favre’s understudy, watched from the sideline.The Packers’ raucous fans will not have much chance to affect next week’s game — Green Bay allowed only 8,456 people to attend the divisional round game — but Wisconsin’s weather could play a role. Weather.com’s 10-day forecast is calling for possible snow on Sunday, with temperatures in the 20s. That’s cold, but by Packers standards it wouldn’t qualify as particularly harsh: It was 3 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff in 1997 when Favre led Green Bay past Carolina; and it was a bone-chilling minus-15 — with a wind chill bringing things down another 20 to 30 degrees — when the Packers, on their path to Super Bowl II, beat the Dallas Cowboys in the 1967 N.F.L. championship, better known as the Ice Bowl.Buffalo’s defense was lying in wait. After a 2019 season in which the Bills’ defense ranked second in points allowed and third in yards allowed, it was expected that Buffalo would live and die on that side of the ball in 2020. Instead, the Bills’ defense was routinely overwhelmed, leaving quarterback Josh Allen and the team’s much-improved offense to bail out that unit. In Saturday’s divisional round game, those roles again reversed. Defensive stars like linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Tre’Davious White were at their best, and cornerback Taron Johnson delivered the key play of the game with an incredible 101-yard interception return for a touchdown.Johnson’s pick-6 should result in his never buying another drink in Buffalo, and the Bills are back in the A.F.C. championship game for the first time since the 1993 season. But Buffalo faces an even stiffer test next week in the form of Kansas City.The Losers’ BracketBaker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns was forced to watch from the sideline as the Kansas City Chiefs successfully ran the clock out in their divisional round game. Cleveland had wasted two timeouts earlier in the second half.Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressTimeouts are important. The Cleveland Browns had the franchise’s best season since it was resurrected in 1999, and the team’s defense, its running game and even quarterback Baker Mayfield should provide fans plenty of optimism going into next season. But Cleveland’s wasting two timeouts in the second half — one on a challenge of a play that wasn’t particularly close and one when there was miscommunication at the line of scrimmage — lowered the Browns’ chances of getting the ball back one last time when trailing by 5 in the game’s closing minutes.The Browns and their fans will probably view this as a lost opportunity to knock off the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs — the injury sustained by Mahomes had seemed to kick the door wide open — but the franchise should instead see this as the start of what could be a strong A.F.C. rivalry. The Browns are young, talented and came close to a win on the road. Given another shot, perhaps the outcome would be different.Slowed by a rib injury, Aaron Donald of the Rams, right, couldn’t find his typical burst. That gave Aaron Rodgers of the Packers plenty of time to pick apart the Los Angeles defense.Credit…Matt Ludtke/Associated PressThe Rams’ defense goes as far as Aaron Donald can take it. After a disappointing 2019 season that ended without a playoff appearance, Los Angeles surged back into contention in 2020 thanks to its defense. Multiple players stepped up to look like stars and the Rams were not only the top-rated overall defense in the N.F.L. — both in total yardage and scoring — but they showed balance, finishing as a top-three unit in both run and pass yards allowed. All of that, however, was built on the dominance of Donald, an All-Pro defensive tackle who anchors the team in all facets of the game. There was concern entering Saturday’s game against Green Bay that Donald could be limited by a rib injury sustained in the wild-card round, but he insisted he was healthy. It was clear from the beginning that was untrue. Donald was on the field for 40 of the Rams’ 75 defensive snaps and he was limited to one tackle and one pressure. He didn’t hit Aaron Rodgers a single time, and the lack of pressure had a cascading effect for the rest of the Rams’ defenders, who did not produce a sack and hit Rodgers just once all game. A devastated Donald was seen crying on the Rams’ sideline at the end of the game.Struggling against Rodgers hardly makes the Rams unique, but the final numbers were stark: It was just the second time all season that Los Angeles allowed more than 30 points, and it was the team’s worst effort of the season against both the pass (296 yards) and the run (188 yards).Justin Tucker missed two field-goal attempts of less than 50 yards in Saturday’s loss to Buffalo. In nine seasons for Baltimore, and two college seasons at Texas, the steady kicker had never missed two such kicks in a game.Credit…John Munson/Associated PressThe Ravens are familiar with Murphy’s Law. The adage states anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Baltimore got an extreme lesson in that during Saturday’s 17-3 loss to the Bills.Justin Tucker, the game’s most reliable kicker from inside 50 yards, missed 41- and 46-yard field-goal attempts, with both attempts bouncing off the uprights. It was quickly reported that Tucker had not missed two such kicks in any single game over his 154 career regular-season and playoff games in the N.F.L., but that was understating how unusual it was for Tucker. He also never missed two such kicks in any college game.Lamar Jackson, a quarterback celebrated for efficient passing and thrilling runs, had the third-worst passer rating of his 41 career starts (including postseason) while gaining just 34 yards rushing. He had a mistake in the red zone turn into a 101-yard pick-6 and he had a bad snap get away from him, leading to a hard hit that gave him a concussion.Tucker and Jackson were hardly alone in their misery. Mark Andrews, one of the game’s best tight ends, caught just four of the 11 passes thrown his way, dropping at least one pass that looked like a sure touchdown. He was also Jackson’s target on the play that turned into a pick-6. Only Patrick Mekari had a worse day. A second-year player out of Cal, Mekari inherited the starting center job from an ineffective Matt Skura during the regular season. On Saturday, two of Mekari’s snaps resulted in fumbles — one of which was the play in which Jackson was concussed.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Asking the N.F.L. Playoff Questions That Need Answers

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyAsking the N.F.L. Playoff Questions That Need AnswersCan Tom Brady keep the momentum going? Is Seattle’s defense good again? Can anyone beat the Chiefs?Underestimate Patrick Mahomes at your own peril. Kansas City — before its backups lost Sunday to the Chargers — won seven consecutive games.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesBen Shpigel and Jan. 7, 2021, 2:00 a.m. ETTo play football amid a pandemic, N.F.L. players worked from home a lot. They took coronavirus tests daily. And when they did report to team facilities, they were required to wear a mask.It has been a weird season. And chances are it’s going to get weirder.The playoffs begin Saturday, and even more than in years past, no one has even an inkling how they’re going to unfold. With an expanded 14-team field, consecutive triple-headers this weekend could compound the craziness and we’re still four-and-a-half weeks (hopefully) from the Super Bowl.Below, we try to sift through the chaos and ask the questions that will define the upcoming postseason. We even try to answer them, too.Is there a better quarterback-receiver tandem than Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams?Aaron Rodgers is the leading candidate for the M.V.P. Award in part because of his synchronicity with Davante Adams, whose enormous catch radius and red zone efficiency are among the league’s best.Credit…Raj Mehta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersNo.Oh, should we keep going?On a tequila-streaked vindication tour after Green Bay drafted his potential successor in the first round, Rodgers reached the precipice of his third Most Valuable Player Award by throwing again and again to Adams, who finished with 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns and grabbed almost every ball in his radius: 115 of 116 passes deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus, tied for the best rate in the N.F.L.Overall, Rodgers’s outstanding ball placement and aptitude for leading receivers helped Adams gain 592 yards after the catch, the most at his position. But their partnership truly thrived in the red zone, that chaotic space inside the opposition’s 20-yard line where passing lanes shrink and trust between quarterbacks and receivers is most critical. There, Adams, despite missing two games with an injury, caught 23 passes and scored 14 touchdowns, both most in the N.F.L. in that area.So, all love for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, whose mind meld transformed Buffalo’s offense, and Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, who wrecked defenses downfield as they generally have with Kansas City. But the telepathy between Rodgers and Adams, cultivated across seven years together, powered their season to remember — and, they hope, a playoff run they won’t ever forget.Which A.F.C. team has the best chance of beating the Chiefs?Bills quarterback Josh Allen became the first player with at least 4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressThe Chiefs (14-2) have been the N.F.L.’s metronome in recent years — consistently scoring, winning, dazzling. But a recent disturbance in the force has stripped their sheen ever so slightly. Struggling to bury opponents as they did during last December’s surge, Kansas City — before its backups lost Sunday to the Chargers — won seven consecutive games by six points or fewer.Underestimate Coach Andy Reid, Mahomes and the crew at your own peril. Still, the A.F.C. is rife with teams positioned to scare Kansas City, and that group is fronted by a contender that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 1995 season, a little over four months before its current quarterback was born: the Buffalo Bills.Reining in his carpe diem approach, Josh Allen, 24, became the first player with at least 4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. The league’s most improved player, Allen guided the Bills to nine victories in their final 10 games — their only loss in that span came via a Hail Murray flung into triple coverage in Arizona.The Bills, the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., rank among the league leaders in takeaways. During their six-game winning streak to end the regular season, no team scored more points or had a greater point differential, winning by an average of 19.8 points, according to Pro Football Reference.The Chiefs did beat Buffalo earlier in the season. But could they do it again? The Bills would love to get a chance to answer that question in the A.F.C. championship game.Can Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat good teams?Tom Brady’s best four-game stretch in Tampa Bay came in the team’s final regular season games against some of the N.F.L.’s worst defenses.Credit…Mike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesAlternately exciting and exasperating, overpowering and underwhelming, the Buccaneers (11-5) rolled into their first postseason in 13 years by winning their last four games, which just so happened to be Tom Brady’s best four-game stretch in Tampa Bay: He had 333.3 passing yards per game, 12 touchdowns, one interception and a 126.9 passer rating. That it all came against some of the league’s sadder defenses — Detroit, Minnesota and Atlanta twice — is irrelevant to the Buccaneers, who were just glad to see it. But now they must try to replicate that production against better competition.And that is where Tampa Bay has struggled. Facing teams that made the playoffs, the Buccaneers went 1-5. In four of those losses Brady threw multiple interceptions, and in an otherwise impressive season — he threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns at age 43 — those were the only games in which he had more than one.The Buccaneers’ roster — the linebacker trio of Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David and Devin White hold down the defense while Brady has Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, to throw to — is loaded. So loaded that their performance shouldn’t be so volatile.With the Bucs matched up with a 7-9 Washington team, not exactly better competition, maybe they won’t be. But speaking of Washington …Can the winner of the historically dreadful N.F.C. East actually win a playoff game?Chase Young, likely the league’s top defensive rookie, has made it known that he wants to sack Tom Brady.Credit…Chris Szagola/Associated PressIn offering up the Footballers in the wild card round, the division is putting forth the team best suited to upset Tampa Bay and here’s why: pressure.No quarterback likes it. But some are better at handling it than others. This season, though Brady’s offensive line largely did well at keeping him upright, he had the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus, and had a 54.5 passer rating — lower than that of Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in that situation.Washington bedeviled quarterbacks with its superb defensive front, led by the first-round picks Jonathan Allen (2017), Daron Payne (2018), Montez Sweat (2019) and Chase Young (2020), likely the league’s top defensive rookie, who skipped into the tunnel following the team’s division-clinching victory over Philadelphia yelling, “Tom Brady, I’m coming. I want Tom.” Young has been saying as much since the N.F.L. scouting combine.The Footballers ranked sixth in pressure rate and in sacks, and tied for second in yards allowed per play. If they, too, can unnerve Brady, then Washington, only the third team ever to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record, perhaps (maybe, possibly) could join the other two — the 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers — in winning its playoff opener, as well.How far can Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey take the Los Angeles Rams?Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a lockdown defender charged with shadowing the game’s best receivers.Credit…Kyusung Gong/Associated PressAfter the highest-scoring regular season in league history, teams’ playoff hopes hinge on how fast and in what volume they can put up points. The Rams, ranked 22nd in offense, matched the Bears in points, finishing ahead of only Washington among the playoff teams.It’s ever more obvious that the Rams — after needing to beat Arizona in Week 17 just to secure a playoff spot — are as unbalanced as a weighted seesaw. A once-formidable offense has sputtered under Jared Goff’s command, placing the onus on the league’s stingiest defense — first in yards and points allowed — to drive Los Angeles’s playoff hopes. Fortunately for the Rams, they face a familiar opponent in the division-rival Seahawks. Across their two regular-season meetings, they sacked Russell Wilson 11 times, and Ramsey — who allowed an absurdly low 20.6 yards per game in his coverage, according to Pro Football Focus — all but defused star receiver DK Metcalf, holding him to one reception for 11 yards on four passes thrown his way.If the Rams beat the Seahawks and New Orleans defeats Chicago, Los Angeles would travel to play the Packers. Ramsey draping Adams, while Donald and his mates pester Rodgers — oh, what fun that could be.How dangerous does Baker Mayfield have to wake up feeling for the Browns to win?Baker Mayfield threw more touchdowns than in 2019, his fewest interceptions as a pro and finishing with 3,563 yards passing in an offense that demanded he play safely.Credit…Jason Miller/Getty ImagesIn his rookie season, Mayfield famously told reporters ahead of a late-season win, “when I woke up this morning, I was feeling pretty dangerous,” which spawned a downtown Cleveland mural, ignited the fanbase — and became a punchline in losing seasons hence.Now in the team’s first playoff game in 17 seasons, where it will face the Steelers (12-4), Mayfield will be credited with helping lead Cleveland (11-5) to its best record since the franchise was resurrected in 1999 and the success should help his on-field reputation catch up some to his off-field notoriety.Yes, Mayfield helped get them there by throwing more touchdowns than in 2019, his fewest interceptions and finishing with a modest (by 2021 standards) 3,563 yards passing in an offense that demanded he play safely — which he did, at least compared with previous seasons. But the Browns’ run hasn’t solely hinged on their quarterback.Cleveland is fueled by an exceptional running-back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and an exceptional offensive line. At their best, the Browns rampage across the field on the ground. They’re 8-2 when Mayfield attempts 30 or fewer passes and 6-0 when they rush for more than 150 yards.Mayfield is still prone to bouts of inconsistency but, within a balanced offense, is better positioned than ever to stress a defense: With his turnovers down and a steady running back duo, Mayfield excelled on play-action passes, ranking among the top five in passer rating and yards per attempt on those plays, according to Pro Football Focus. So long as the Browns can move the ball steadily and consistently, Mayfield’s daring is still an effective surprise attack.Is Seattle’s defense repaired?Seattle’s defense looked potent as the Seahawks won six of their final seven regular season games.Credit…Stephen Brashear/Associated PressThrough nine games, a Seahawks team that once prided itself on its defense — that built its identity on it, that won a Super Bowl because of it — was winning even though that unit allowed an average of 30.1 points and 441.1 yards. A defensive turnabout began with a Week 11 victory against Arizona, and the Seahawks won six of their last seven games of the regular season by yielding the fewest points and third fewest yards per play over that stretch.Was this simply regression? Or did Seattle fix what was broken?Call it a patchwork fix. Carlos Dunlap, the defensive end Seattle added at the trade deadline from Cincinnati, had critical victory-sealing sacks against Arizona and Washington. Jamal Adams, a versatile safety picked up from the Jets in the off-season, helped too, by adding to the strong play from linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Without question, the defensive improvement was real.It just might not be permanent. With Adams and defensive tackle Jarran Reed injured, the defense’s overall strength will again be tested in the wild card game against the Rams. While the Seahawks would benefit if Rams quarterback Jared Goff can’t play, they could struggle to sustain pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the next round if they don’t get those key pieces back quickly.Which coordinator is most important to their team?Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said he hit the “reset button” on the team’s offense in Week 13.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressFrom Leslie Frazier of Buffalo and Dennis Allen of New Orleans on defense to Eric Bieniemy of Kansas City and Arthur Smith of Tennessee on offense, numerous coordinators had an outsize impact on their team’s success. But none will be quite as vital these playoffs as Greg Roman of Baltimore, the mastermind behind the Ravens’ revived — and fearsome — offense.Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson called Roman’s offense “predictable” in mid-November, before the team lost three consecutive games. Roman recently said he hit “the reset button” after those losses, right before Baltimore thrashed Dallas in Week 13. Winning their last five games, a stretch that coincides with quarterback Jackson’s return from Covid-19, the Ravens lead the N.F.L. in rushing and rank second in points per game and yards per play.A healthier and more stable offensive line has helped J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Jackson take advantage, especially on the outside, in a reconfigured run game.Roman is familiar with resets. He was on Baltimore’s staff in 2018, when Jackson replaced the injured Joe Flacco and Baltimore reworked its offense on the fly. And as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator in 2012, when starting quarterbackAlex Smith got hurt midseason, Roman reimagined an offense that catered to Colin Kaepernick’s dynamism, helping the 49ers reach the Super Bowl.The Ravens are peaking, but they are trailed by memories of what happened last postseason, when Jackson committed three turnovers in an upset loss to Tennessee — their opponent on Sunday. If Roman can help Jackson get the first playoff win of his career, the Ravens’ biggest win will have been changing the narrative on their ceiling.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 16: What We Learned

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 16 of the N.F.L. SeasonThe Steelers came back to beat the Colts, Kansas City survived against Atlanta and Jacksonville secured the No. 1 pick in the draft.Diontae Johnson began the Steelers’ comeback against the Colts with a diving catch for a 39-yard touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger added two more scoring passes in the fourth quarter to help Pittsburgh secure a 28-24 win.Credit…Don Wright/Associated PressDec. 27, 2020Updated 8:22 p.m. ETThe Pittsburgh Steelers overcame a huge deficit to shock the Indianapolis Colts. The Kansas City Chiefs barely beat the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens continued their surge with a win over the Giants. The top spot in the A.F.C. playoffs has been decided — as has the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — but even a few irrelevant teams showed some pluck Sunday.Here’s what we learned:[embedded content]There is some fight left in the Steelers. Pittsburgh came into the day on a three-game losing streak, and appeared to be headed toward a fourth consecutive loss when it fell behind the Indianapolis Colts, 24-7, in the third quarter. From that point, the game belonged entirely to the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger started the comeback in the third quarter by throwing a deep 39-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson. He then added a 5-yard touchdown to Eric Ebron and a 25-yarder to JuJu Smith-Schuster in the fourth, as Pittsburgh’s defense shut down Indianapolis. The Colts’ final four drives resulted in two punts, an interception and a turnover on downs.Pittsburgh, which clinched the A.F.C. North title with Sunday’s win, is currently a half-game ahead of Buffalo for the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs. Indianapolis, which fell to 10-5, has been one of the N.F.L.’s better teams this season but is currently not in line for a playoff spot because the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns own tiebreakers over the Colts.Kansas City came away with a win, but it required a fairly shocking miss by Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, who came into the day 19 for 19 on field goal attempts of less than 40 yards.Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressThe Chiefs love to play with fire. A win was hardly necessary for Kansas City, as the Chiefs were virtually assured of the No. 1 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs even if they lost their final two games. But watching Kansas City barely hang on for a 17-14 win at home over the Atlanta Falcons reinforced the idea that Patrick Mahomes’s team tends to play down to its competition. A sloppy effort against Atlanta had the Chiefs losing, 14-10, with just over two minutes remaining, and would have headed to overtime if not for an unlikely miss from Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo, as the Pro Bowl kicker’s attempt at a game-tying 39-yard field goal sailed wide right.Regardless of how close they cut it, the Chiefs improved to 14-1 and clinched the A.F.C.’s only first-round bye. Perhaps by the divisional round of the playoffs, the Chiefs will decide that it is important to try for the entire game.Baltimore’s Gus Edwards led a rushing attack that produced 249 yards on 40 carries.Credit…Terrance Williams/Associated PressThe Ravens control their playoff destiny. Baltimore dropped to 6-5 with a loss to Pittsburgh on Dec. 2 — the team’s fourth defeat in five games — and seemed like a long shot to make the playoffs. A soft schedule, and a return to form by quarterback Lamar Jackson, has righted the ship and thanks to a 27-13 victory over the Giants, the Ravens can now secure the team’s third straight trip to the playoffs simply by beating the Cincinnati Bengals next week. Baltimore’s four-game win streak has included only one victory over a team with a winning record, but an average of 37 points a game is impressive no matter the opponent.The Ravens, who thrive when chewing up huge chunks of yardage on the ground, have averaged 233.3 yards rushing a game in the four-game win streak after having been held to fewer than 200 in nine of their first 11 games.Taylor Heinicke was forced into action at quarterback for Washington after Dwayne Haskins was benched. It is unclear who will start at quarterback for Washington in next week’s crucial game.Credit…Mark Tenally/Associated PressCeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper both had huge days for Dallas as the Cowboys demolished the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. Dallas somewhat surprisingly still has a shot at making the playoffs.Credit…Ron Jenkins/Associated PressThere will be a division winner with a losing record. The Washington Football Team came into the day with dreams of finishing the season at 8-8, but a 20-13 loss at home to the Carolina Panthers dropped Washington to 6-9, meaning the N.F.C. East will be won by a team that is, at best, 7-9. The division’s teams have often been hard to watch, but they will provide the most exciting subplot of Week 17, as the Footballers, the Dallas Cowboys and the Giants will all go into the season’s final day with a chance at earning a playoff game at home. Washington can make it nice and simple by winning a road game against the eliminated Philadelphia Eagles — a result that would be far more attainable should quarterback Alex Smith return from a calf injury.Frank Gore is going out in style. After a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in November dropped the Jets to 0-10, Gore, 37, addressed his team’s struggles (and his own future), saying “You don’t want to go 0-16, especially if this is my last year. I can’t go out like that.” Last week Gore helped the Jets end their 13-game losing streak by scoring the 100th touchdown of his career. This week he ran for a team-high 48 yards as the Jets beat the Cleveland Browns, 23-16. In doing so, Gore joined Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton as the only players in N.F.L. history with at least 16,000 yards rushing — only two other active players, Detroit’s Adrian Peterson (14,757) and Tampa Bay’s LeSean McCoy (11,102), have more than 10,000.Provided he decides to declare for the N.F.L. draft, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will almost assuredly be headed south to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Credit…Ken Ruinard/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTrevor Lawrence is moving about six hours south. The downside of Gore getting his wish to go out well with the Jets is the team having officially handed the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft to the Jacksonville Jaguars, which almost assuredly will lead to Lawrence, Clemson’s star quarterback, taking a long drive down I-95 to replace Gardner Minshew rather than heading north to replace Sam Darnold. The Jaguars were emphatic in their failure on Sunday, losing by 41-17 to the suddenly surging Chicago Bears. But at least on offense Jacksonville should be a terrific landing spot for Lawrence, as he will immediately be handed a good young running back (James Robinson) and two talented young wide receivers (D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr.)One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Kansas City’s Travis Kelce needs just 84 yards receiving to become the first tight end to have 1,500 in a season. His biggest obstacle is the likelihood that the Chiefs will rest multiple starters after having already clinched a first-round bye. Credit…Jeff Roberson/Associated PressChiefs 17, Falcons 14 It was a quiet day by Kansas City’s lofty standards, and the team’s running game looked far less effective without the injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but the Chiefs did have the silver lining of Travis Kelce reaching 1,416 yards receiving for the season, breaking the single-season record for a tight end set by George Kittle in 2018. Kelce has one more game to add to his total, provided Kansas City doesn’t rest him in next week’s irrelevant game against the Los Angeles Chargers.Steelers 28, Colts 24 At halftime, Indianapolis was romping to an easy win. The second half was another story, as the Steelers stopped trying to dink and dunk themselves to victory and had their aggressiveness pay off in spades, with the team earning its first A.F.C. North title in three seasons.Ravens 27, Giants 13 The Giants’ third straight loss was largely a result of Baltimore’s offense overwhelming them, but the Ravens’ defense had a fine day as well, making Daniel Jones’s life miserable with six sacks and 11 quarterback hits.Seattle’s defense was terrible for most of the season, but the team has been showing dramatic improvement on that side of the ball. Quandre Diggs’s interception in the second quarter of Sunday’s game ended a promising drive by the Rams.Credit…Scott Eklund/Associated PressSeahawks 20, Rams 9 It was hardly an explosive effort, but Seattle clinched the N.F.C. West title, kept alive a small chance at a first-round bye, and continued to show dramatic improvement on the defensive side of the ball. Despite its loss, Los Angeles controls its own fate next week. A win would give the Rams a wild-card spot in the playoffs.Jets 23, Browns 16 It took a total team effort for Cleveland to lose, with Baker Mayfield completing just 28 of his 53 passes, the Browns’ celebrated running game averaging just 2.5 yards a carry and the team’s defense making the Jets’ Sam Darnold look downright competent. A win would have clinched a playoff spot for Cleveland, but the Browns will now go into Week 17 fighting with Miami, Baltimore and Indianapolis for the three wild-card spots in the A.F.C.Cowboys 37, Eagles 17 Everything went right for Dallas, with Andy Dalton throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns, Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 105 yards and Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb all putting on a show against Philadelphia’s overwhelmed secondary. Jalen Hurts topped 300 yards passing for a second consecutive week, but wasn’t able to turn that yardage into enough points.Curtis Samuel has been remarkably versatile for Carolina this season. He and Christian McCaffrey could present matchup problems for opponents should McCaffrey get back to full health next season.Credit…Mitchell Layton/Getty ImagesPanthers 20, Footballers 13 Curtis Samuel put on a show for Carolina, piling up 158 yards from scrimmage, but the story of the day was quarterback Dwayne Haskins being benched for ineffective play on the heels of losing his captaincy as a result of off-field behavior. You have to assume that Haskins’s days in Washington are numbered.Chargers 19, Broncos 16 Denver had the ball with a chance to win the game in the final minute, but Drew Lock’s desperation heave was intercepted, handing Los Angeles its sixth win of the season.Chicago’s Jimmy Graham caught two touchdown passes on Sunday, giving him 82 for his career. Among tight ends, only  Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski have more.Credit…James Gilbert/Getty ImagesBears 41, Jaguars 17 It is not like Jacksonville had any motivation to win — quite the opposite — but watching Chicago put up 28 consecutive points to start the second half couldn’t have been very fun. Chicago’s win, combined with Arizona’s loss on Saturday, has the Bears in line for the N.F.C.’s final wild-card spot. That sets up an entertaining Week 17 in which Chicago closes its season with a home game against the top-seeded Green Bay Packers, and the Cardinals have a tough matchup on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.Bengals 37, Texans 31 Brandon Allen threw for 371 yards and two touchdowns and Samaje Perine ran for 95 yards and two scores, powering Cincinnati to its first road win since Sept. 30, 2018. Houston dropped to 4-11, having absolutely wasted a season of quarterback Deshaun Watson’s prime.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 16 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadThe Colts are favored on the road in Pittsburgh, the Rams will try to stay alive in Seattle and a frozen matchup between Tennessee and Green Bay should still have plenty of offense.Linebacker Darius Leonard is one of the game’s best defenders. The Colts finally surrounded him with enough talent for that to matter.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressDec. 24, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETThe N.F.L. playoff picture should come into sharp focus this weekend, with several division titles and wild-card spots likely to be decided. There will be games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, and while a few of them are irrelevant, most can have an impact on the standings.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 16, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-6-2Overall record: 110-107-7A look ahead at Week 16:Sunday’s Best GamesFriday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesIndianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -1.5 | Total: 44.5The Colts (10-4) have seemed better than the Steelers (11-3) for much of this season — and the team’s records are getting closer to reflecting that.Indianapolis has won five of its last six games, getting contributions from newcomers (the rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, quarterback Philip Rivers, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner) and mainstays (linebacker Darius Leonard, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton). A tiebreaker has the Colts trailing Tennessee in the A.F.C. South, but there is no question Indianapolis did a fine job of rebuilding its team in the last off-season.Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is falling apart. There was a sense during the team’s 11-0 start that the Steelers (11-3) were being overrated, but no one expected three straight losses. Before this year, only nine teams had opened with an 11-0 record in the 16-game era, and just one of those — the 2009 New Orleans Saints — lost three of its final five games. That Pittsburgh matched that ignominious feat with two games remaining is humiliating, but the Steelers can take solace in the fact that the Saints won the Super Bowl that season.Being a favorite on the road in Pittsburgh this late in the season is unusual territory for the Colts, but based on what we have seen in recent weeks, it seems justifiable. Pick: Colts -1.5Green Bay’s Davante Adams has a career high in touchdowns (14) and a chance to set a personal best in receiving yards despite missing two games.Credit…Benny Sieu/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Packers -3.5 | Total: 56Only three teams are averaging more than 30 points a game, and two of them face off here. Oddsmakers are expecting it to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and while 56 is a respectable number, you have to wonder how much higher that would be if the forecast in Green Bay didn’t call for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.The Titans (10-4) have been on a roll, with Derrick Henry running roughshod over all comers and Ryan Tannehill making opponents pay for stacking the box by stretching the field with the passing game. That recipe has led to five straight games in which Tennessee had at least 420 yards of total offense and 30 points.The Packers (11-3) have been enjoying an M.V.P.-level season from Aaron Rodgers and a career year from wide receiver Davante Adams, leading to Green Bay’s being held to fewer than 30 points just three times. And while Aaron Jones has fewer rushing touchdowns than he did last season, he is on track to surpass last year’s rushing total while averaging 5.4 yards a carry.Both teams have a great deal of motivation to win, with Tennessee trying to fight off Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South title and Green Bay on the verge of securing the N.F.C.’s first-round bye. But the Packers’ experience in poor weather could be what decides this one. Pick: Packers -3.5Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -1.5 | Total: 47.5You have to assume the Rams (9-5) squandered their chance at an N.F.C. West title with last week’s abject failure against the Jets. Los Angeles could have come into this game with the same record as the Seahawks (10-4). Instead, Seattle can clinch the division with a win at home. The Rams are still overwhelmingly likely to make the playoffs — a win for them or a loss by Chicago will be enough to get them there — but it is hard to be enthusiastic about a team that allows itself to be beaten by the Jets, who had a talent deficiency at every position. Pick: Seahawks -1.5Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Chiefs -10.5 | Total: 54There is little at stake in this game. The Falcons (4-10) have been eliminated from playoff contention, and while the Chiefs (13-1) can clinch the A.F.C.’s lone first-round bye with a win, they would still have a 98 percent chance of the top seed even if they lost both of their remaining games, according to The Upshot.With stakes that low, there is no reason to rush the return of running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Kansas City should be considering resting other key players as well. That could open the door for Atlanta to cover, but the Chiefs should still win. Pick: Falcons +10.5Friday’s MatchupJustin Jefferson, right, and Adam Thielen, center, are frequent dance partners in the end zone, but Minnesota’s defense tends to let the team down.Credit…Brace Hemmelgarn/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMinnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, 4:30 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Prime VideoLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 51.5Even with consecutive losses, the Saints (10-4) can secure their fourth consecutive division title simply by beating the Vikings (6-8) or having Tampa Bay lose.Will Minnesota put up much resistance? Probably not enough to matter. The Vikings have an incredibly talented offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen putting on a show even in losses. But Minnesota’s defense is still so young and inconsistent that the team typically gives up just enough points to lose.Drew Brees looked rusty last week, and wide receiver Michael Thomas is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury. So while a New Orleans win is likely, this game could be close. Pick: Vikings +7.5Saturday’s MatchupsRather than throwing within 10 yards of Miami’s Xavien Howard, opponents should consider punting the ball away. The net result would be preferable.Credit…Isaiah J. Downing/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Dolphins -3 | Total: 47.5At this point it is ridiculous that opposing quarterbacks are challenging Xavien Howard of the Dolphins (9-5). He is the top-rated coverage cornerback, according to Pro Football Focus, but teams have thrown in his direction often enough that he is leading the N.F.L. with nine interceptions and has produced a takeaway in 10 of Miami’s 14 games.If the Raiders (7-7) want to win this game, they should give Howard the old Darrelle Revis “island” treatment. But it shouldn’t matter much if Derek Carr (injured groin) or Marcus Mariota starts at quarterback for Las Vegas, as the Dolphins are a better team and have more motivation to win thanks to their dogfight with Baltimore for the A.F.C.’s last wild-card spot. Pick: Dolphins -3Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Buccaneers -9.5 | Total: 54When Matthew Stafford inevitably makes a run at Drew Brees’s record for career passing yards, stretches like the final three weeks of this season will be a big reason. Stafford sustained a rib injury in Week 14; it was serious enough that he struggled to walk. He surprised everyone by starting in Week 15, and threw for 252 yards in a loss to Tennessee. Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention, and Stafford’s ribs are still extremely sore, but the team’s interim coach, Darrell Bevell, said there were no plans to shut down the veteran quarterback: “To be honest with you, I don’t think he’ll let that happen.”So what should people expect from this game? Between hard hits from the fierce pass rush of the Buccaneers (9-5), Stafford will probably throw for 250 to 300 yards and the Lions (5-9) will lose anyway. Because a win or a tie will put Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, that series of events will be acceptable to the Buccaneers. Covering the spread will be harder, though, with running back Ronald Jones out after a positive test for the coronavirus. Pick: Lions +9.5San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:30 p.m., Prime VideoLine: Cardinals -5 | Total: 49Both teams should feel at home since the 49ers (5-9) have relocated to Arizona as a result of coronavirus regulations in California. That’s the most interesting subplot of a game between San Francisco’s injury-riddled team and the Cardinals (8-6), an up-and-coming squad that can clinch its first playoff berth since 2015 by winning Saturday and having Chicago lose to or tie Jacksonville. With Nick Mullens requiring elbow surgery, San Francisco will start C.J. Beathard at quarterback. Quarterback record is an overrated statistic, but Beathard has lived up to his last name with a career mark of 1-9. Pick: Cardinals -5Sunday’s Games That Matter (a Little)Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown have had fun beating up on lesser teams in the last few weeks. That trend could continue.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesGiants at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Ravens -11 | Total: 45The Giants (5-9) are clinging to a shred of a chance at winning the N.F.C. East, but they are running into the Ravens (9-5) at the wrong time. Baltimore is through its tough patch and appears to have its offensive issues worked out — at least against the league’s lesser teams — and that takes this game from potentially interesting to a comical mismatch.The Ravens need to keep winning if they want to overtake Miami for the A.F.C.’s last playoff spot, and a home game against a team that is coming apart at the seams is an excellent opportunity for them to flex their muscles. Pick: Ravens -11Carolina Panthers at Washington Football Team, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Footballers -2.5 | Total: 44.5The late-night escapades of Dwayne Haskins resulted in the young quarterback being fined, but he wasn’t suspended. That leaves the Footballers (6-8) with a decent enough option should Alex Smith be unable to return from a calf injury. Smith is the team’s best option, and gives Washington its best chance of making the playoffs, but his health casts doubt on this game against the Panthers (4-10) that wouldn’t be there if he were 100 percent.The combination of a Washington win and a loss by the Giants would secure the N.F.C. East title for the Footballers, and having that decided this week would be welcome for a team that is trying to get healthy. Pick: Footballers -2.5Cleveland Browns at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -9.5 | Total: 47The Jets (1-13) had no motivation to beat the Rams last week beyond avoiding a winless season, but that was enough to power them to the most surprising result of the year. The victory, however, splashed cold water on their future. Combined with tiebreaker scenarios, the win meant the Jets were no longer in line for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.Now they will host the Browns (10-4), who are significantly better than them in every facet of the game. Cleveland can clinch its first playoff berth since 2002 by winning and having Baltimore, Miami or Indianapolis lose. Pick: Browns -9.5Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -7.5 | Total: 47Despite a recent surge, the Bears (7-7) are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. While a win over the Jaguars (1-13) is certainly attainable — if Jacksonville loses out, it will have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft — Chicago’s only real shot at the playoffs is to have Arizona fall apart. It’s still nice to see the Bears right the ship, even if it leads to nothing, as the team’s defense deserved much better than it got from its offense during a six-game losing streak. The Bears should win, but there are too many variables to assume they will cover. Pick: Jaguars +7.5Sunday’s Games That Don’t MatterThe Eagles have been doing a lot of celebrating since Jalen Hurts took over at quarterback.Credit…Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports, via ReutersPhiladelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Eagles -2.5 | Total: 49.5The ridiculous nature of the N.F.C. East means that neither of these teams has been officially eliminated. But the Eagles (4-9-1) have only a 10 percent chance of capturing the N.F.L.’s worst division, according to The Upshot, and the Cowboys (5-9) have a 6 percent chance. The game is worth watching to see Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts continue to grow into his role as a starting quarterback, and Dallas’s skill players are good enough to make Andy Dalton serviceable on a good day. Pick: Eagles -2.5Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -3 | Total: 48.5Come for the meeting of promising young A.F.C. West quarterbacks. Stay if it is your local broadcast and you don’t have access to out-of-market games. The Broncos (5-9) and the Chargers (5-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention, but these will be teams to watch for next season. Pick: Chargers -3Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Texans -8 | Total: 46The Bengals (3-10-1) are fresh off an upset of Pittsburgh, and thanks to Deshaun Watson, the Texans (4-10) can often do an impression of a competent team. There isn’t a lot of motivation to go around, which makes a hefty point spread a bit curious. Pick: Bengals +8Monday’s MatchupIn his first season with the Bills, Stefon Diggs has career highs in receptions and receiving yards.Credit…Jack Dempsey/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m., ESPN and ABCLine: Bills -7 | Total: 46How you feel about this game probably comes down to how petty you believe the Bills (11-3) are. After years of abuse at the hands of the Patriots (6-8), Buffalo has clinched its first A.F.C. East title since 1995. The team has a 1 percent shot at overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, so there’s little reason for the Bills to go all out. But Coach Bill Belichick will be standing on the opposite sideline, and watching him squirm might be reason enough for Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and the rest of Buffalo’s stars to try to put on a show in Foxborough, Mass.A season-ending injury to New England’s best defender, Stephon Gilmore, complicates things further and pushes a full touchdown spread into reasonable territory. Pick: Bills -7How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Colts -1.5, for example, means that Indianapolis must beat Pittsburgh by at least 2 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More