Can Arsenal exploit the horror Man Utd stat that haunts Ruben Amorim’s flops? Weekend Wager’s best bets
SUNSPORT’S Weekend Wager uses in-depth stats and razor-sharp analysis to bring you the best value bets from the upcoming bumper weekend of sport.Joining our very own Will Pugh on this week’s show is football broadcaster Kweku Afari and Betfair betting expert Sam Rosbottom.Arsenal take on Manchester United in the weekend’s biggest gameCredit: GettyThis week the panel gave their thoughts on how punters could make the most of the weekend’s biggest Premier League fixture, Manchester United vs Arsenal, and the bottom of the table scrap between Wolves and Everton.While they also weighed in on the Six Nations action and the Betfair Imperial Cup at Sandown.Check out all our best bets for the weekend below, in association with Betfair.Manchester United vs ArsenalKewku Afari: Arsenal to win & over 2.5 goals – 21/10READ MORE ON MAN UTD”If you look at Arsenal team, they’re strange when it comes to results. “Sometimes they can’t hit a barn door with banjo and sometimes, as we saw a midweek against PSV, they can put multiple goals in against the opposition. “I’m looking Manchester United here, and in six of their last seven games at Old Trafford the opposition has scored at least two goals. “And so I’m looking at them defensively. I’m looking at them in terms of Andre Onana the way that he doesn’t fill the fans of confidence. Most read in Football”They’re a team that do leak goals, especially at home.”Will Pugh: Mikel Merino to score first – 13/2″Merino’s got three goals in his last four appearances and notched one of the seven at PSV, didn’t he? and got two off the bench in that sort of striker debut [vs Leicester].”But as well as the Merino stats, since the weekend of Ruben Amorim’s first game in charge, only Leicester (13) have conceded the opening goal in more Premier League games than Manchester United, who have gone 1-0 down 12 times.”While Arsenal have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League away games against Manchester United.”They have 13 goals in those 10 games, having only managed to score 10 in their first 22 visits to Old Trafford.”Mikel Merino has scored three goals in four games since stepping in as Arsenal’s makeshift centre-forwardCredit: AFPSam Rosbottom: Arsenal HT/Draw FT – 12/1″I don’t think Arsenal are going to win this game. You have to go back to December 1 to find the last time Manchester United won a first half, that was against Everton at Old Trafford.”But they have won the second half in 8 of their last 11 matches.”The stats show that Manchester United are turning into a second half team”.Wolves vs Everton Kewku Afari: Beto to score anytime – 21/10″He’s scored five goals in his last five Premier League games. That’s more than his previous 44 games, which is… unbelievable.”And in the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, he’s been very, very important. So they are relying on Beto. “Also, in his last five Premier League matches, he’s had two or more shots on target. So I expect him to come to the fore for Everton this weekend.”Will Pugh: Jorgen Strand Larsen to 2+ shots on target – 11/4″Jorgen Strand Larsen has been targeted by passes in the box 85 times this season, which is the most of any player in the Premier League.”While only Dominic Solanke has made more forward runs into the opposition penalty box at 237 than Strand-Larsen has – he’s really a focal point for Wolves.”I think Strand-Larsen has been doing some good work and he’s a real asset to them”.Sam Rosbottom: Jack Harrison 1+ shot on target – 6/4″Jack Harrison has been very unfortunate. He has an unwanted record.”He’s got the highest expected goals total of any player yet to score in the Premier League this season at 2.9xG – meaning he should have scored three times.”I’m not actually going to go with him to score though, but I do think there’s value in him to have a shot on target.”He’s had seven shots in his last six games and we just need one of them to be on target this weekend.”Jack Harrison is due a goal this seasonCredit: RexEngland vs Italy – Six NationsSam Rosbottom: Italy +16 – 2/1 “England are absolutely massive favourites against Italy, but we laugh about how tight England games have been. “And Italy, so far this tournament aren’t the whipping boys that they usually are. Wales are the whipping boys, not Italy.”So I’m looking at the handicap market here and I think there’s an opportunity to get Italy on side at plus 16 which is 2-1.”So essentially, England can win the game But if they win by a margin smaller than 16 points then we win the bet.””I don’t think it’s going to be tight, obviously because England should do the business, but I don’t think it’s going to be as big a gap as everybody’s anticipating here.”England are strong favourites to beat Italy this weekendCredit: PABetfair Imperial Cup at SandownSam Rosbottom: Go Dante – 11/2, Bo Zenith – 11/2, Lump Sum – 8/1 and Knickerbockerglory e/w – 14/1″Obviously, lots of movement already in the market following the news that last year’s winner, Go Dante, was 25/1. “There’s been a big gamble on him, now backed into joint favour at 11/2, now joint favourite along with Bo Zenith.”Lump Sum, who was the favourite, moving the other way, was 5/1, now 8/1. READ MORE SUN STORIES”There’s a horse in here that I quite fancy for each way for five places at 14/1 – Knickerbockerglory.”I think that’s a SWEET each way shout”.Go Dante has seen its odds drop massivelyCredit: Rex More