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      Browns Are In, Ending N.F.L. Playoff Drought

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyBrowns 24, Steelers 22Browns Are In, Ending N.F.L. Playoff DroughtCleveland beat Pittsburgh on Sunday, qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season.Quarterback Baker Mayfield, celebrating the Browns’ win on Sunday, delivered on his promise: The team’s makeover began three years ago when he was chosen with the first pick in the N.F.L. draft.Credit…Scott Galvin/USA Today Sports, via ReutersJan. 3, 2021Updated 9:31 p.m. ETCleveland Browns fans love to revel in their misery. The long list of dud coaches. The unending line of quarterback busts. The team abandoning the city only to return a few years later. And all that losing, including a winless season in 2017.But Browns Nation got some measure of payback on Sunday when the Browns beat their rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-22, in the regular-season finale, and qualified for the N.F.L. playoffs for the first time since the 2002 season, an absence of 17 years.The two teams — the Steelers (12-4), as the third seed in the A.F.C., and the Browns (11-5), as the sixth — will meet again next week in Pittsburgh in the wild-card round.The Browns’ victory ended the longest playoff drought in the N.F.L. (the Jets now take over the top spot with a 10-year absence) and completed a makeover that began three years ago when Cleveland chose quarterback Baker Mayfield as the first overall pick in the draft.When asked about what the victory meant to the team’s fans, Mayfield said, “It means so much to this city.”The win, in front of a pandemic-limited crowd of about 12,000 fans at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, provided an extra dose of satisfaction because it came against the Steelers, who have dominated the Browns for decades. Since the Steelers beat the Browns in the wild-card round in January 2003 — Cleveland’s last postseason appearance — Pittsburgh has won 29 of their 36 matchups.During that fallow period, the Browns have burned through 25 quarterbacks, 10 head coaches and a whole lot of hope. The team has gone 91-196 since its last playoff appearance (a .317 winning percentage), a stretch that has included 14 seasons with double-digit losses. Their only winning season during that stretch had been in 2007, when the Browns were 10-6.The Steelers had clinched the A.F.C. North and had no way to claim the top seed in the A.F.C. and its first-round bye, so they sat several of their best players on Sunday, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.The Browns were short-handed as well. Six players were on the Covid-19 list and several offensive linemen were injured. Cleveland went without any starting wide receivers last week in a loss to the Jets because of an outbreak on the team. Several more players and coaches were added to the Covid list since then.This made the challenge bigger for the Browns, even though they were playing at home and against the Steelers’ backup quarterback, Mason Rudolph.The Browns opened with a bang, scoring a touchdown and field goal on their first three possessions, sparked in part by running back Nick Chubb, who passed 1,000 yards rushing for the season.But the Steelers kept the game close with three field goals through three quarters. The Browns, though, found a way to stay one step ahead.After Pittsburgh narrowed the score to 10-9, Mayfield scrambled for 28 yards to keep the next drive alive. He then hit tight end Austin Hooper with a 2-yard touchdown pass to put the Browns up, 17-9.On the ensuing drive, M.J. Stewart of the Browns intercepted Rudolph and returned the ball to the Pittsburgh 20-yard line. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry ran for a touchdown four plays later to push the lead to 24-9.No Browns win over the Steelers comes easily. Rudolph hit wide receiver Chase Claypool for a 28-yard score. On the next drive, the Steelers sacked Mayfield to push the Browns out of field-goal range. They then failed to convert a fourth-down play, which gave the Steelers the ball back with 3 minutes 35 seconds to play.Rudolph hit wide receiver Diontae Johnson for a 47-yard completion, then threw a touchdown to JuJu Smith-Schuster to narrow the score to 24-22.The Browns broke up the 2-point conversion to maintain the lead, but nearly fumbled the recovery on an onside kick. It wasn’t until Mayfield ran 3 yards for a first down that the Browns were able to run out the clock, secure the win and punch their ticket to the postseason.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 17: What We Learned

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From Week 17 of the N.F.L. SeasonGreen Bay secured home-field advantage, Buffalo ended Miami’s season and Cleveland ended its 17-season playoff drought.Green Bay’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a 72-yard touchdown catch against Chicago, one of four touchdown passes Aaron Rogers threw while helping the Packers secure the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs.Credit…Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesJan. 3, 2021, 9:26 p.m. ETThe Green Bay Packers secured the top seed in the N.F.C. playoffs, while making an excellent argument for Aaron Rodgers as the N.F.L.’s most valuable player. The Buffalo Bills got the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., while effectively ending the Miami Dolphins’ season. And the Cleveland Browns, after 17 seasons that ended in frustration, are back in the playoffs. It was an exciting Sunday even by Week 17 standards, and the playoff field was nearly finalized heading into the nightcap between Washington and Philadelphia.Here’s what we learned:🚨 BIG PLAY ALERT 🚨7️⃣2️⃣-yard TD catch for @MVS__11 💪 #GBvsCHI | #GoPackGo📺 FOX📱 https://t.co/2UxGSiVlvn pic.twitter.com/KriCuvvNPG— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 3, 2021
      The road through the N.F.C. playoffs goes through Green Bay. Perhaps the finest regular season of Aaron Rodgers’s career — one that has included two Most Valuable Player Awards — finished with a 35-16 win over the Chicago Bears and an N.F.C.-best record of 13-3. That gives the Packers home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, forcing opponents to come to Lambeau Field, which won’t have its raucous fans but will still have the frigid weather in which Rodgers has always thrived.Rodgers added four more touchdown passes on Sunday, giving him a career-high of 48, which is tied with Dan Marino for the fifth-most in a season. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers, who seemed miffed when the Packers drafted his potential replacement in April, has 99 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions.Buffalo’s Josh Norman got in on the scoring with a pick-six in the third quarter of the Bills’ blowout of Miami.Credit…Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe Bills weren’t taking any chances — and the Dolphins suffered for it. The Bills had already clinched the first A.F.C. East title — their first since 1995 — two weeks ago, while Miami would have guaranteed itself a wild-card spot with a win on Sunday. Despite that, the Bills began the day with Josh Allen at quarterback, let the M.V.P. candidate power them to a 28-6 lead at halftime with three touchdown passes, and then had their defense and backup quarterback Matt Barkley take care of the rest of the game in a 56-26 laugher that never felt remotely close. The Bills captured the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. with a 13-3 record — their best finish since 1991 — while the Dolphins were eliminated from playoff contention thanks to their own loss and Indianapolis’ victory over Jacksonville.A limited number of fans were in attendance to see the Cleveland Browns clinch the team’s second playoff spot since the franchise was restarted in 1999.Credit…David Richard/Associated PressYou can’t end a 17-season playoff drought without a little drama. Despite topping 10 wins for just the second time since 1995, the Cleveland Browns entered the final day needing a win, or some help from other teams, to reach the postseason for the first time since 2002. Pittsburgh decision to rest of Ben Roethlisberger was helpful, but some doubt was introduced when a coronavirus outbreak closed Cleveland’s facilities and left the team without three of its four starting defensive backs. The Browns took a 24-9 lead early in the fourth quarter, but then had to sweat after Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph threw two touchdown passes to close the gap. An onside kick attempt after the second touchdown nearly succeeded, but the Browns, shaking off years of bad breaks, recovered and held on for a nail-biting 24-22 win.Tampa Bay already had plenty of talent on offense, but Tom Brady, who joined the team as a free agent this off-season, was able to utilize it in a much more efficient manner than Jameis Winston had.Credit…Kim Klement/USA Today Sports, via ReutersAdding a six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback is helpful. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers occasionally tantalized last season, but recognized they needed some stability on offense to complement their terrific defense. They replaced the enigmatic Jameis Winston with Tom Brady, who was coming off a difficult season in New England but was seen as a player who could accentuate the team’s strengths. Good call. Brady had a few hiccups along the way, but he finished the year with 4,633 yards passing and a franchise-record 40 touchdown passes. More important, Sunday’s 44-27 victory over the Atlanta Falcons gave the Buccaneers an 11-5 record and made them the No. 5 seed in the N.F.C. for their first trip to the playoffs since 2007.The Titans are far from a one-man show. Derrick Henry rushed for 250 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the eighth player in N.F.L. history to rush for 2,000 yards in a single season. But it was a few crucial plays from quarterback Ryan Tannehill late in the game that finished off a thrilling 41-38 win over the Houston Texans and gave Tennessee the A.F.C. South title. With the Titans trailing by 4 with less than two minutes to play, Tannehill sold a play-fake to Henry before running in a 5-yard touchdown. Houston tied the game with a field goal, but Tannehill got the ball back with just 18 seconds remaining and immediately completed a 52-yard pass to A.J. Brown that, along with a 4-yard run by Henry, set up Sam Sloman’s game-winning 37-yard field goal.Darius Leonard had plenty of reason to be excited after a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars put the Indianapolis Colts in the playoffs. Leonard’s team owes a debt of gratitude to Miami, as the Dolphins’ loss opened the door for the Colts.Credit…AJ Mast/Associated PressSome teams get more help than others in making the playoffs. The Indianapolis Colts took care of business in a 28-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they made the playoffs because of Miami’s loss to Buffalo. Thanks, Dolphins!The Baltimore Ravens got one of the other A.F.C. wild-card spots by winning a fifth consecutive game — four of which came against teams with losing records. Thanks, schedule makers!And the Chicago Bears, despite a midseason lull and a trouncing by Green Bay on Sunday, earned an N.F.C. wild-card berth thanks in large part to an ankle injury sustained by Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals. Without Murray for much of the game — and with the second-year quarterback hobbled even when he did return — Arizona lost to the short-handed Los Angeles Rams, 18-7. Thanks, football’s brutal nature!Xavier McKinney of the Giants stepped in front of a pass intended for Dalton Schultz of the Cowboys. His interception effectively ended the Cowboys’ season.Credit…Vincent Carchietta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersIt wasn’t meant to be for Dallas. The Cowboys appeared lost when quarterback Dak Prescott fractured his ankle in Week 5. But thanks to the rest of the N.F.C. East being largely hapless, Dallas not only survived until the final week of the season but had a decent chance at a division title. The rival Giants pushed them around for much of the day, looking like a team that was far more talented than its record indicated, but even so the Cowboys had the ball in the game’s final two minutes, trailing by only 4 points, and drove all the way to the Giants’ 7-yard line. A sack and an incomplete pass set up a third-and-goal from the 17-yard line with 1 minute 24 seconds remaining and that’s when Andy Dalton got desperate. He ran from pressure before throwing a brutal interception to Xavier McKinney that effectively ended the Cowboys’ season.One* Sentence About Sunday’s Games*Except when it takes more.Cleveland’s Nick Chubb helped run his team to victory, carrying the ball 14 times for 108 yards. Credit…Kirk Irwin/Associated PressBrowns 24, Steelers 22 It came in a game in which Pittsburgh played without the defensive stalwarts Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt, but Cleveland still impressed on the ground, racking up 192 yards on 31 carries, letting the team’s biggest strength carry it to the playoffs.Bills 56, Dolphins 26 Miami was hopeful that Tua Tagovailoa could take care of things himself, since Ryan Fitzpatrick — the N.F.L.’s equivalent of an ace relief pitcher — was placed on the Covid-19 reserve list. It didn’t work out. While Tagovailoa threw for 361 yards and a touchdown, the rookie was also intercepted three times, including a pick-six, and never mounted much of a challenge to Buffalo’s dominance on both sides of the ball.Packers 35, Bears 16 The beeping sound you hear is Chicago backing into the playoffs. The Bears came into the day with control of their own fate, but needed help to earn a wild card after quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was largely ineffective and running back David Montgomery was limited to 3.1 yards a carry.Jonathan Taylor was absolutely dominant for Indianapolis, running for 253 yards in the Colts’ win over Jacksonville.Credit…Justin Casterline/Getty ImagesColts 28, Jaguars 14 Indianapolis appeared to be teetering on the edge of a second consecutive brutal second-half collapse, but some terrific play by the team’s defense, and Jonathan Taylor’s 45-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, powered the Colts to victory. Taylor entered the season as a backup to Marlon Mack, but his 253 yards rushing and two touchdowns on Sunday gave him 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns in a terrific rookie year.Titans 41, Texans 38 There were plenty of good things to say about Tennessee after it clinched a hard-won A.F.C. South title, but Houston’s players could hold their heads up high after a terrific second half by quarterback Deshaun Watson made the division rival Titans fight for it.Buccaneers 44, Falcons 27 Antonio Brown (11 catches, 138 yards, two touchdowns) and Chris Godwin (5-133-2) both had terrific games for Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers will be holding their collective breath awaiting an update on the health of wide receiver Mike Evans, who injured his knee on an incomplete pass in the end zone. Evans had 46 yards receiving before the injury, giving him 1,006 for the season — he is the first N.F.L. wide receiver to have 1,000 or more yards in each of his first seven seasons.Ravens 38, Bengals 3 J.K. Dobbins showed off why many people believe he is Baltimore’s top running back going forward, rumbling for 160 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries. But Lamar Jackson was nearly as effective, rushing for 97 yards on 11 carries, which left him with 1,005 for the season. He now owns the No. 1 and No. 3 rushing seasons by a quarterback in N.F.L. history.Seattle’s Tyler Lockett celebrated the first of his two fourth-quarter touchdowns while still laying on the turf in the end zone.Credit…Chris Coduto/Getty ImagesSeahawks 26, 49ers 23 San Francisco was leading by 9-6 after three quarters, but Russell Wilson took over in the fourth, throwing two touchdown passes to Tyler Lockett. Alex Collins ran in a score as well and the game would not have been as close if not for a garbage-time score by San Francisco’s Jeff Wilson Jr.Saints 33, Panthers 7 Covid-19 protocols led to New Orleans being without nearly all of its running backs, but that did not slow the team down in the slightest. Ty Montgomery, who plays some wide receiver but also has experience at running back, filled in admirably, carrying the ball 18 times for 105 yards. That, combined with Drew Brees’s three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown from Taysom Hill, was more than enough against Carolina.Rams 18, Cardinals 7 It might not work in the playoffs, but Los Angeles was able to end Arizona’s season with an offense led by quarterback John Wolford, who came into the day with zero career passing attempts and left it with 231 yards passing, a team-leading 56 yards rushing and his first career victory.Giants 23, Cowboys 19 In what may be the perfect encapsulation of the N.F.C. East this season, the Giants’ victory came down to running back Wayne Gallman recovering his own fumble in the closing minutes, just two plays removed from Dallas’ Andy Dalton virtually handing Big Blue the win with an interception.Justin Jefferson’s outrageous rookie season included 88 catches for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns.Credit…Raj Mehta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersVikings 37, Lions 35 Justin Jefferson recorded 133 yards receiving, which put him at 1,400 for the season. He broke Randy Moss’s franchise record for a rookie receiver, and finished less than 100 short of the 1,473 Bill Groman had for the A.F.L.’s Houston Oilers in 1960.Minnesota’s skill players were undoubtedly happy to pad their statistics, but they should keep in mind that Detroit’s defense was so bad this season that it allowed 6,716 total yards and 519 points, breaking franchise records set during the Lions’ winless season in 2008.Chargers 38, Chiefs 21 It came against Kansas City’s backups, but Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert was awfully impressive in throwing for 302 yards and three touchdowns in a win that has the potential to save Coach Anthony Lynn’s job. Herbert was not even expected to start this season, but after being forced into duty in Week 2, he finished with 4,336 yards passing and a rookie record 31 passing touchdowns.Raiders 32, Broncos 31 This game did not have any playoff implications, and it was often fairly ugly, but it had plenty to offer. Denver took a late lead with a 92-yard touchdown pass from Drew Lock to Jerry Jeudy. Las Vegas took it back with a 1-yard Josh Jacobs touchdown run and a 2-point conversion with just 24 seconds remaining. After swings like that, the game finished in the only logical way: Maxx Crosby of the Raiders blocked Brandon McManus’s attempt at what would have been a 63-yard game-winning field goal.Patriots 28, Jets 14 In what was Coach Adam Gase’s last game with the club, and might be Sam Darnold’s last as its starting quarterback, the Jets went into the fourth quarter tied, 14-14, and then fell apart, allowing Cam Newton to throw a pair of game-sealing touchdown passes. New England came into the day with an N.F.L.-low eight touchdown passes this season, but managed four — including one by a wide receiver — against the Jets.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture for Week 17: Mapping All the Scenarios

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      Updated Sunday 9:27 AM ET For the most part, the Week 17 games have been scheduled such that those that matter most to one another are being played simultaneously. Unfortunately, these various scenarios can get quite confusing, even for the people trying to explain them to you live on television. The diagrams below are meant […] More

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      NFL Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadTen teams will be fighting for seven playoff spots on a final regular-season Sunday when numerous playoff seedings can change.Stefon Diggs, center, and Josh Allen, right, led the Buffalo Bills to the team’s first A.F.C. East title since 1995. They go into Week 17 with a chance at locking up the No. 2 seed in their conference.Credit…Adam Glanzman/Getty ImagesDec. 31, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETHeading into the final Sunday of the regular season, seven teams have secured playoff spots and 10 others are in contention for seven positions. The key battles will come in the A.FC. South and the N.F.C. East and for the wild-card spots in both conferences, with plenty of seeding yet to be decided as well.Here is a look at Week 17, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 6-9-1Overall record: 116-116-8A look ahead at Week 17:The A.F.C. Wild CardsThe A.F.C. SouthThe N.F.C. EastThe N.F.C. Wild CardsThe Seeding GamesThe Irrelevant GamesHow Betting Lines WorkThe A.F.C. Wild CardsThe battle for the three wild-card spots in the A.F.C. has come down to Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland and whichever team doesn’t win the A.F.C. South, Tennessee or Indianapolis.Tua Tagovailoa, not pictured, is expected to start at quarterback for Miami, but if the team needs a spark, the Dolphins will turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, center, whom the team used as the football equivalent of a relief pitcher last week.Credit…David Becker/Associated PressMiami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. CBSLine: Bills -1 | Total: 44.5For the last 20 years, the Dolphins (10-5) and the Bills (12-3) have lived in the mighty shadow of the New England Patriots. Thanks to the fall of the New England dynasty, Buffalo has won its first division title since 1995 and Miami is on the verge of its first playoff appearance since 2016 (and just its third since 2001). But in a cruel joke by the scheduling gods, they face off in Week 17, and a loss may come with significant consequences.For Buffalo, the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs is at stake. While that distinction doesn’t come with a bye this season, it still offers home-field advantage — not a small thing when you play your games in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bills will clinch the spot with a win, but would drop to No. 3 if they were to lose in concert with a Pittsburgh victory. That should be enough to keep Buffalo’s starters in for most of the game — with the nice side effect that Josh Allen will be given one more game to bolster his credentials for the Most Valuable Player Award.For Miami, a wild-card spot is within reach. A win will be enough, but if the Dolphins lose, they will need a loss by Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis. There are also several unlikely scenarios that involve multiple teams tying.If both teams go all-out, this game favors Buffalo. The Bills have the N.F.L.’s fourth-ranked offense and 10th-ranked defense, and the conditions at Bills Stadium should be fairly hostile for a visiting team: around 37 degrees with a chance of rain and snow. But the Dolphins shouldn’t be written off. Their run-heavy offense is suited to poor conditions and their defense has generated an N.F.L.-leading 27 turnovers, which could be extremely relevant if Allen gives in to his worst tendencies at exactly the wrong time. Pick: Bills -1Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Ravens -13 | Total: 44.5The Ravens (10-5) have righted the ship in recent weeks, but their midseason lull means their playoff chances are coming down to the season’s final day. Considering that in the past two seasons, Lamar Jackson’s team dominated the regular season before falling apart in the postseason, perhaps a fight to the finish will be good for Baltimore — provided it makes the playoffs.A win is enough to get the Ravens a wild-card spot — a loss by Cleveland or Indianapolis would also get Baltimore in — and while the Bengals (4-10-1) may not seem to be much of an obstacle, it is worth remembering that Cincinnati is coming off a pair of impressive wins over Pittsburgh and Houston. There’s no question that a motivated Ravens team is far better than the Bengals, but Cincinnati’s recent play is enough to throw some cold water on a 13-point spread. Pick: Bengals +13Jarvis Landry’s return from the Covid-19 reserve list should give a huge boost to Cleveland’s offense.Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesPittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -10 | Total: 42After Week 12, Pittsburgh was 11-0 and Cleveland was 8-3, both rocketing their way toward the playoffs. Over the next four games, the Steelers went 1-3, and were very nearly 0-4 if not for a huge second-half comeback last week. The Browns went 2-2, losing to the lowly Jets last week partially because the team had four wide receivers on the Covid-19 reserve list.The downturn has led to Pittsburgh’s dropping to the No. 3 seed in the A.F.C. playoffs and Cleveland’s needing a win, or some help, to get a wild-card spot.Because the Steelers (12-3) would need both a win in their game and a loss by Buffalo to overtake the Bills for the No. 2 seed, Coach Mike Tomlin has declared that Mason Rudolph will start in place of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. That most likely means that Pittsburgh’s other star players on offense, like wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool, will also be limited or sit out as well.The Browns (10-5) should get their wide receivers back, which ought to be enough to get them a win at home, even though safeties Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo have replaced the receivers on the Covid-19 reserve list. Should Cleveland lose, the Browns could still qualify for the playoffs if Indianapolis loses or if a few other complex scenarios involving losses and ties come to be. Is that enough motivation to justify a 10-point spread against the Steelers’ backups? That’s debatable. Pick: Steelers +10Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -14 | Total: 50The Colts (10-5) have a good chance of being the best team in the N.F.L. that doesn’t make the playoffs this season. A solid team with an above-average offense and a spectacular defense, Indianapolis collapsed against Pittsburgh last week and now not only needs to win to get a wild-card spot, but also needs Baltimore, Cleveland or Miami to lose or to tie. Otherwise the Colts will be the No. 8 seed in a seven-team playoff structure.Because each of the three other wild-card pursuers plays at 1 p.m., the Colts will go into this game knowing if they have a chance at one. But even without a shot at one of those three spots, Indianapolis has motivation: A win or a tie, combined with a Tennessee loss, would hand the Colts the A.F.C. South title.For Indianapolis, winning should be easy. The Jaguars (1-14) no longer have direct motivation to lose, as the top pick in next year’s draft is secured, but they don’t have any motivation to win, either. A two-touchdown spread is risky no matter the motivation, but the Colts can cover if they want to. Pick: Colts -14The A.F.C. SouthTennessee owns a tiebreaker over Indianapolis, so if the teams finish with the same record, the Titans will win the division.Tennessee’s Derrick Henry is leading the N.F.L. with 1,777 yards rushing. Considering how poorly Houston defends the run, Henry has an outside chance of getting the 223 yards he needs for 2,000.Credit…Wade Payne/Associated PressTennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 56.5The Titans (10-5) could have clinched the A.F.C. South with a win over Green Bay, but a blowout loss has left Tennessee with an outside chance of missing the playoffs entirely. To secure a division title, the Titans need a win or an Indianapolis loss, or for both teams to tie. Should Tennessee be overtaken by the Colts, the Titans could still get a wild card provided Baltimore or Miami loses.Let’s not pretend this game is in doubt, though. The Titans have Derrick Henry, the game’s most explosive running back, and Houston has the N.F.L.’s second-worst run defense. Tennessee could probably win this game without attempting a pass. Pick: Titans -7.5The N.F.C. EastThree of the East’s four teams remained alive heading into the final week.Michael Gallup and the Cowboys showed drastic improvement last week. A Dallas win or tie, combined with a Washington loss, will put the Cowboys in the playoffs.Credit…Ron Jenkins/Associated PressDallas Cowboys at Giants, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -3 | Total: 44.5Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 43.5None of the teams in the N.F.C. East have been good enough to warrant individual game entries going into Week 17. The division has three teams vying for its title on the final day of the season, but the best record any of them can attain is 7-9, and there’s a nonzero chance of a 6-10 team hosting a first-round playoff game.When healthy, the Footballers (6-9) are the most complete team in the East, with a decent offense and a defense that has shown drastic improvement. But quarterback Alex Smith is still not 100 percent and wide receiver Terry McLaurin is unlikely to play as a result of an ankle injury. That lessens Washington’s advantage over the Eagles (4-10-1) while also making a case that the Cowboys (6-9) have become the division’s best team, at least temporarily, at exactly the right time.A Dallas loss at 1 p.m. would not lessen Washington’s motivation, as the Giants, somehow, some way, have not been eliminated, and the combination of a Giants win and a Footballers loss would hand Big Blue one of the more baffling division titles in years. But the most likely scenario of the day is for Dallas and Washington to both win, sending the Footballers limping into the playoffs. Picks: Cowboys -3; Footballers -1.5The N.F.C. Wild CardsTampa Bay has clinched one of the three wild-card spots in the N.F.C., but the fight for the two others has come down to Chicago, Arizona and Los Angeles.Chicago’s Roquan Smith had two interceptions in last week’s win. The Bears can secure a wild-card spot with a win over Green Bay.Credit…Stephen B. Morton/Associated PressGreen Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -5.5 | Total: 51.5In his long and decorated career, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is 19-5 against Chicago. He has won seven of his last eight starts against the division rival. Throw in Rodgers’s being in the top tier of M.V.P. candidates, the Packers’ being able to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs with a win and the fact that a Chicago loss would eliminate the Bears (8-7) from the playoffs, and you’re looking at a full bingo card of Rodgers’s motivation. The only thing tempering all of that is the site: Chicago’s Soldier Field. But that shouldn’t trick you into thinking the Bears stand a chance against Green Bay (12-3). Pick: Packers -5.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Rams -1 | Total: 39.5This result might not matter, but the players won’t know it at the time. Should Chicago lose to Green Bay, both the Cardinals (8-7) and the Rams (9-6) would earn wild-card spots. But the two games will be played simultaneously, giving Arizona and Los Angeles motivation to beat each other. A Bears win, unlikely as one is, would mean only one of these N.F.C. West teams would qualify.Los Angeles is somehow favored in this one despite quarterback Jared Goff’s being out after surgery on his dislocated right thumb. John Wolford, who went undrafted out of Wake Forest in 2018 and has never thrown a pass in an N.F.L. game, will start in his place. That’s probably not going to cut it against Kyler Murray of the Cardinals, but this game is a nice rags-to-riches story for a player from the short-lived Alliance of American Football, which gave Wolford a chance to prove himself. Pick: Cardinals +1The Seeding GamesTampa Bay, Seattle and New Orleans have clinched playoff spots, but their seedings can be affected by this week’s results.Rob Gronkowski has been the recipient of six of Tom Brady’s franchise-record 36 touchdown passes for the Buccaneers this season. Brady holds the single-season touchdown mark for both Tampa Bay and New England. He leads Drew Brees on the N.F.L.’s career list as well.Credit…Rick Osentoski/Associated PressAtlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 50.5The Buccaneers (10-5) have more than proved themselves in recent weeks, winning three games in a row, including one on the road against the Falcons (4-11). They can secure the No. 5 seed in the N.F.C. with a win, and after contemplating resting his starters, Coach Bruce Arians said, “We’re going to play to win.” Arians called the push for an 11th win a “pride thing.” For Tom Brady, who has set a franchise record for single-season passing touchdowns (36), the start also means a chance to extend his lead over Drew Brees atop the N.F.L.’s career passing touchdowns list. Brady’s big season and Brees’s injury-related absence have led to Brady’s having a nine-touchdown lead in what had been a seesaw battle.Atlanta is better than the team’s record indicates, and the likelihood that numerous Buccaneers players sit out the second half makes this point spread a touch too large. Pick: Falcons +6.5Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -5.5 | Total: 46The Seahawks (11-4) captured their first N.F.C. West crown since 2016 with last week’s win over the Rams, and they go into the season’s final day with a chance at overtaking New Orleans for the No. 2 seed in the N.F.C. While the 49ers (6-9) would undoubtedly love to play a spoiler role of sorts — and they did just that by beating Arizona last week — you have to assume that if Seattle wants to win this game, it will do so handily. Pick: Seahawks -5.5New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -6.5 | Total: 47.5Going into Week 16, the Saints (11-4) had been sluggish on offense. A 52-point game in which Alvin Kamara tied an N.F.L. record with six rushing touchdowns went a long way toward reconfirming New Orleans’s status as a team that can score in bunches. A win would guarantee the Saints the No. 2 seed in the N.F.C. while keeping alive the possibility of a first-round bye, provided Green Bay loses. That should lead to the team’s taking no chances and keeping its starters in the game for a matchup in which the Panthers (5-10) are at a talent disadvantage: Pick: Saints -6.5The Irrelevant GamesThese four games have no relevance to the playoff picture.Since Kansas City has clinched a first-round bye, Chad Henne is expected to start in place of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Henne has seen limited action this season, but he scored a rushing touchdown in Week 7.Credit…Ron Chenoy/USA Today Sports, via ReutersLos Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 44The Chiefs (14-1) clinched the top seed in the A.F.C. and a first-round bye with last week’s win, taking any excitement out of this game. Chad Henne is likely to start in place of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and most of Kansas City’s other starters are likely to sit as well — which would rob Travis Kelce of his shot at being the first tight end to have a 1,500-yard receiving season. As a result of Kansas City’s going full “preseason” mode, the Chargers (6-9) are favored. Justin Herbert, the Chargers’ rookie quarterback, should relish his chance to get a win at Arrowhead Stadium, as he might not win there again for some time. Pick: Chargers -3.5Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m. FoxLine: Vikings -7 | Total: 54.5Had the Vikings (6-9) not started the year so poorly, they might be in the hunt for a wild-card spot. As it stands, they have a fairly entertaining offense and a defense bad enough that none of their scoring matters. The Lions (5-10) are expected to limp into this game with several players out — including quarterback Matthew Stafford — which means the most interesting subplot of this game will be whether Minnesota’s Adam Thielen can get the 132 yards receiving he needs to reach 1,000 for the season. Even with running back Dalvin Cook out after the death of his father, Minnesota should win easily. Pick: Vikings -7Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Raiders -2.5 | Total: 50.5The Raiders (7-8) and the Broncos (5-10) had moments of relevance in 2020, but it was a lost season for both franchises. With the Chiefs expected to dominate the A.F.C. West for years to come and the Chargers building something special, there may be several lost seasons in their futures as well. Pick: Broncos +2.5Jets at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 40Frank Gore will miss this game after sustaining a lung contusion last week, but he reached 16,000 yards rushing for his career before being removed, which is about the best thing anyone can say about this season for the Jets (2-13). Similarly, the Patriots (6-9) are an irrelevant team that will most likely undergo huge off-season renovations, with the only notable part of their year being Cam Newton’s tying the franchise record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a season (12), which Steve Grogan set in 1976. Despite Newton’s horrific passing in recent games, he is likely to start this game, giving him an outside chance of matching his own N.F.L. record of 14 rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in a single season. Pick: Patriots -3How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Titans -7.5, for example, means that Tennessee must beat Houston by at least 8 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Quarterback Keeper? Jets, Browns and Bears Face Contract Decisions

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyTrend WatchQuarterback Keeper? Jets, Browns and Bears Face Contract DecisionsSam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mitchell Trubisky have all been marginally impressive at times. But is that enough for their teams to sign them to salary-cap-straining contracts?Jets quarterback Sam Darnold, right, and Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns have each made their teams’ decisions about extending their contracts trickier by playing well — but not that well — over the last few weeks.Credit…Bill Kostroun/Associated PressDec. 30, 2020, 3:00 a.m. ETThe most pivotal decision an N.F.L. team must make is often not drafting the right quarterback but determining the right thing to do with the quarterback it drafted a few years ago.The Jets and Sam Darnold are reaching a crossroads. The Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears are facing similar decisions with Baker Mayfield and Mitchell Trubisky. Should these teams offer their marginally impressive, often disappointing young starters budget-burdening contracts or send them away and start over again?There is no middle ground. If there exists a compensation package for a former first-round quarterback that lands somewhere between nine-figure golden handcuffs and bus fare out of town, N.F.L. front offices have yet to discover it.Darnold, Mayfield and Trubisky have all made their teams’ decisions trickier by playing well — but not that well — over the past few weeks. Darnold has led the Jets to back-to-back victories. Mayfield threw 10 touchdowns and just one interception in a four-game stretch that ended when a coronavirus outbreak left him throwing to scout-team wide receivers in Sunday’s loss to the Jets. Trubisky has completed over 70 percent of his passes and thrown six touchdowns while leading the Bears to three straight victories, albeit against a trio of scuffling opponents.All three quarterbacks could be showing signs of improvement at the end of their third (Darnold and Mayfield) and fourth (Trubisky) N.F.L. seasons. Or their warm streaks may simply be random fluctuations caused by the quality of their opponents, some lucky bounces and heavily tempered expectations.Trubisky is just a few weeks removed from being benched in favor of Nick Foles. Mayfield behaved as if he were his own internet troll at times last year and struggled against quality defenses early in this season. Darnold is graded on the Jets curve: Showing up and trying his hardest guarantees at least a C-plus.The contracts of first-round draft picks come with built-in fifth-year team options: The player gets a hefty raise (Darnold’s base salary, for example, would jump from roughly $920,000 in 2021 to around $25 million in 2022), while the team gets an extra year of evaluation/procrastination. So the Jets and the Browns could delay their final decisions on Darnold and Mayfield until 2022. But exercising a quarterback’s fifth-year option is like asking a fiancé to postpone the wedding until they finish graduate school: perhaps prudent, but an undeniable sign of one’s true feelings.Team politics also typically play a large role in determining a young quarterback’s fate. Newly hired coaches are rarely eager to repair the prospect who helped get the last coach fired.The Chicago Bears famously traded up in the 2017 N.F.L. draft to select Mitchell Trubisky, center, when Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were still on the board.Credit…Steve Mitchell/USA Today Sports, via ReutersThe next Jets head coach is likely to approach undoing Adam Gase’s handiwork the way Batman defuses one of The Joker’s time bombs: The safest bet is to just hurl everything into Gotham River. So if the Jets keep Darnold, it may be only as a lame-duck place holder while his rookie replacement learns the playbook. Under such circumstances, a trade or release could provide both the Jets and Darnold a much-needed fresh start.The Bears declined Trubisky’s fifth-year option last off-season, so he enters 2021 as a free agent, leaving the team with several expensive, suboptimal choices. Franchise tagging Trubisky would cost the Bears more than the nearly $32 million one-year salary that Dak Prescott earned from the Dallas Cowboys’ indecision this season. A long-term contract may cost around $118 million over four years, as indicated by Ryan Tannehill’s contract with the Tennessee Titans. The cap-strapped Bears would struggle to afford either choice, neither of which Trubisky has earned.Front-office politics could also play a role in the Bears’ decision. General Manager Ryan Pace famously traded a bundle of mid-round draft picks to the San Francisco 49ers in 2017 to select Trubisky when Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were still on the board. An executive who admits such a huge mistake rarely gets the chance to make another one. All the more reason to pretend that Trubisky is a late-blooming Aaron Rodgers.Mayfield has outperformed Darnold and Trubisky, overcoming many youthful bad habits while leading the Browns to their first winning record since 2007. That makes the team’s next decision even more perilous. Mayfield appears to be in line for a contract in the $32 million to $40 million range per year, like those signed by Watson, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz in recent years. (Mahomes’s $500 million contract, like his entire career so far, belongs in its own category).The Eagles, of course, have benched Wentz in favor of the rookie Jalen Hurts. But Wentz’s huge contract will make trading him like trying to sell a Lamborghini with 48 remaining payments after it was hit by a train. And Goff is the football equivalent of a $40 hamburger. Watson has played well in hopeless circumstances, and not every mammoth quarterback contract brings instant regret. But if the Browns choose to overpay Mayfield for “good enough,” they are likely to get precisely what they bargained for.It’s easy to suggest that any team that is not completely satisfied with its young quarterback’s development should cut bait and dip instead into next year’s deep pool of can’t-miss rookies. But Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield, Wentz and Goff all came from similar can’t-miss pools. If selecting and developing a franchise quarterback were easy, multiple teams would not face this predicament each year.Ultimately, the Jets will probably trade or release Darnold; Mayfield should get Goff/Wentz money from the Browns; the Bears will find a solution to the Trubisky conundrum that makes sense only to the Bears; and everyone will wish they had selected Mahomes when they had the chance. The whole cycle will just begin anew next year when the Giants try to figure out what to do with Daniel Jones.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Week 15 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Week 15 Predictions: Our Picks Against the SpreadAn empty calories matchup between the Chargers and the Raiders gets things started on Thursday in a week dominated by a potential Super Bowl preview between the Saints and the Chiefs.Drew Brees hasn’t played since Week 10. Can he come back from a rib injury to lead New Orleans in a crucial matchup against Kansas City?Credit…Tyler Kaufman/Associated PressDec. 17, 2020, 12:01 a.m. ETA Thursday matchup between teams that can stretch the field. A pair of entertaining games on Saturday. A potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday. This is shaping up to be an excellent week of football, and we dug in on each team’s playoff chances using The Upshot’s playoff simulator.Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 15, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-8Overall record: 102-101-5A look ahead at Week 15:Sunday’s Best GamesThursday’s MatchupSaturday’s MatchupsSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkSunday’s Best GamesKansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -3 | Total: 51.5New Orleans should be extremely happy with the job Taysom Hill has done filling in for the injured Drew Brees, but last week’s loss to Philadelphia — which knocked New Orleans out of the top spot in the N.F.C. playoff seedings — illustrated how much the team needs Brees back if it wants to compete for a championship.The Saints (10-3) are hopeful that Brees, who hasn’t played since Week 10, can make his triumphant return this week so he can lead them in a potential Super Bowl preview against the Chiefs (12-1). The Upshot gives the Chiefs a 23 percent chance of repeating as champions, while the Saints, at 16 percent, are considered the most likely winner out of the N.F.C.At their best, both teams have explosive offenses and opportunistic defenses. If the Chiefs have a fatal flaw, it is their boredom, but a road game against a top competitor should keep their attention.So where does that leave this game? It depends on Brees’s health. If he plays, and is close to 100 percent, you have to give the Saints a decent chance of an upset. Anything less than that, and a motivated Chiefs team could romp. Pick: Chiefs -3Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -6 | Total: 44.5If you were to go back to Week 6 and explain to the 5-0 Seahawks and the 1-5 Footballers that they’d be meeting in Week 15 with Washington (62 percent) having a better chance of winning its division than Seattle (39 percent), few would believe you. But the Seahawks (9-4) have leveled out, and were caught from behind by the Rams in the N.F.C. West, while the Footballers (6-7) have improved by leaps and bounds since installing Alex Smith at quarterback and are alone in first atop the N.F.C. East.Seattle has a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, regardless of whether it wins the division, and on the Seahawks’ best days — such as last Sunday, when they throttled the Jets — it’s easy to envision them as Super Bowl contenders. But Washington’s defense is on the way up, and if Smith is able to play through a calf injury, he could keep things close or engineer an upset. Pick: Footballers +6Ndamukong Suh and the Tampa Bay defense put pressure on Kirk Cousins last week. The Buccaneers finished the day with six sacks and 12 quarterback hits.Credit…Mark Lomoglio/Associated PressTampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -6 | Total: 50.5In a convincing win over Minnesota last week, the Buccaneers (8-5) showed how effective their pass rush can be in creating the disruptions necessary to win tough games. Kirk Cousins was under pressure all game, and even though the Vikings moved the ball well, they couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone. A similar script could play out against the Falcons (4-9), who are a threat in any game in which Julio Jones is active — particularly if that game is in Atlanta — but are prone to problems against Tampa Bay’s pass rush because of quarterback Matt Ryan’s lack of mobility.The Buccaneers are up to a 94 percent chance of ending their 12-season playoff drought, but the line may be too aggressive this week. Pick: Falcons +6Cleveland Browns at Giants, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Browns -4 | Total: 45.5Even with last week’s heartbreaking loss to Baltimore, the Browns (9-4) have matched the franchise’s best 13-game start since 1994, when Coach Bill Belichick led them to an 11-5 record and a trip to the divisional round of the playoffs. On the strength of its record, Cleveland has an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs for the first time since 2007. While the Giants (5-8) have made a remarkable turnaround from earlier this season, and have a 25 percent chance of winning the N.F.C. East, they are overmatched in this one. Pick: Browns -4Thursday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offense hasn’t led them to a lot of wins so far, but Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen never seem more than a play away from scoring a touchdown.Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressLos Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m., Fox, NFL Network and Amazon Prime VideoLine: Raiders -3.5 | Total: 53The Raiders (7-6) somehow still have a 20 percent chance of getting a wild-card spot in the playoffs despite having lost three of their last four games, with the lone win coming courtesy of the Jets’ incompetence. Now they face the Chargers (4-9), who have a far worse record but a similar ability to alternate between thrilling and terrible.Both teams are loaded on offense, and while neither has had a good season defensively, they both feature defensive players who can make game-changing plays, like Joey Bosa of the Chargers and Maxx Crosby of the Raiders.Last week, the Falcons’ social media team poked fun at the similarities between Atlanta and Los Angeles with a play on a Spider-Man meme, and the same post could be recycled by the Raiders’ social team this week. But if the Chargers can build on last week’s solid ending, they will take a huge step in their rebuilding process. Pick: Chargers +3.5Saturday’s MatchupsGreen Bay’s Davante Adams is leading the N.F.L. in receiving touchdowns and receiving yards per game. With three regular-season games remaining, he is on a pace for career highs in every major receiving category.Credit…Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesCarolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Packers -8.5 | Total: 51.5Carolina’s defense just got shredded by Denver’s Drew Lock, so it’s hard to imagine the pain Aaron Rodgers and the Packers (10-3) could inflict on the Panthers (4-9) if they were to go all-out. After New Orleans’s loss last week, Green Bay, which had already clinched the N.F.C. North, is in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye. This game has the potential to be a trap, with the Packers looking ahead to a tougher matchup in Week 16 against Tennessee, but Rodgers has been locked in and may trail only Patrick Mahomes in the race for league most valuable player. Pick: Packers -8.5Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 50It’s hard to know how the Broncos (5-8) will play from week to week, but a road game in Denver is tough for any opponent, even one as good as the Bills (10-3). Add that the Bills can relax a little considering their 98 percent chance of winning the A.F.C. East (but just a 1 percent chance at a first-round bye), and this game could be closer than oddsmakers are predicting. Pick: Broncos +6.5Sunday’s Other GamesQuarterback Lamar Jackson and cornerback Marlon Humphrey sprinted onto the field to celebrate with kicker Justin Tucker last week after Tucker won the game for Baltimore with a 55-yard field goal.Credit…Kirk Irwin/Associated PressJacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Ravens -14 | Total: 47.5There were so many jokes. Lamar Jackson engineered one of the wildest wins in recent N.F.L. history, completing a 44-yard touchdown to Marquise Brown on fourth-and-5 with less than two minutes left in the game, then watching Cleveland tie the score, and then taking the Ravens far enough for Justin Tucker to kick a game-winning, 55-yard field goal. But all anyone wanted to talk about was Jackson’s brief absence and how it looked as if he might have taken a bathroom break.Laugh all you want — Jackson swears he was receiving fluids to alleviate cramping — but the win was a welcome change in what had been a difficult period for the Ravens (8-5). Jackson finally looked like himself, and the Ravens, with a 74 percent chance of making the playoffs, no longer seemed like a team in peril.This game does not figure to be nearly as entertaining. The Jaguars (1-12) haven’t won a game since Week 1, and struggle on both sides of the ball. Having Baltimore as a two-touchdown favorite when you consider the team’s recent defensive struggles seems like a bit too much. Pick: Jaguars +14Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Colts -7 | Total: 52.5In most years, this would be a key A.F.C. South matchup, but the Texans (4-9) have been eliminated from playoff contention and the Colts (9-4) have an 82 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 36 percent chance of winning their division. Houston’s Deshaun Watson will be the best player on the field, but the Texans have done a shameful job of keeping talent around him. Indianapolis, on the other hand, made crucial personnel moves in the off-season that have taken the team from mediocre to top 10 in offense and defense. Pick: Colts -7Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -10.5 | Total: 51.5There are situations in which the Lions (5-8) could hold their own against the Titans (9-4), but most of them involve locking Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in a well-guarded room and insisting nobody knows where he is. Barring high jinks, Detroit seems remarkably overmatched, especially if Matthew Stafford misses the game with the rib injury he sustained last week. Tennessee is in a tough fight with Indianapolis for the A.F.C. South crown, and has a 64 percent chance of holding off the Colts, so the Titans certainly have motivation to keep winning. Pick: Titans -10.5Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 46Both teams are on the outside looking in, but the Bears (6-7) and the Vikings (6-7) are still alive, and both have at least a 20 percent chance of a playoff spot despite Chicago’s recent struggles and Minnesota’s rough start. Assuming the Bears’ offensive resurgence last week was more than a blip would probably be generous, but they certainly have looked their best with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Even accounting for that, Minnesota should be fine, provided the team gives quarterback Kirk Cousins more time to work than he had in a loss to Tampa Bay. Pick: Vikings -3Odell who? Miami’s Xavien Howard stepped in front of Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill to make an incredible one-handed interception last week. Credit…Mark Brown/Getty ImagesNew England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -2.5 | Total: 41.5The Patriots (6-7) have missed the playoffs just twice since 2001, but even with a recent hot streak they are down to a 4 percent chance at qualifying this year, and that number will drop to zero with a loss to the Dolphins (8-5), who have a 43 percent chance at a wild card. The tables appear to have turned in this rivalry, with New England being the scrappy underdog that could spoil things for the seemingly superior team. Miami’s style of play doesn’t lead to many mistakes, so unless Coach Bill Belichick has something up his sleeve, the Patriots can start making vacation plans for early January. Pick: Dolphins -2.5Jets at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -17 | Total: 44Sam Darnold feels like the Darkest Timeline version of Jared Goff. Instead of developing under the tutelage of an era-defining offensive genius like Coach Sean McVay, Darnold has been saddled with Coach Adam Gase, and the Jets (0-13) seem to have little chance of avoiding a winless season. The talent imbalance in this game — reflected accurately in the point spread — is extreme, and a win for Los Angeles (9-4) should help the team increase its 60 percent chance of winning the competitive N.F.C. West. A 17-point spread is absurd, but so are the Jets. Pick: Rams -17San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., CBSLine: 49ers -2.5 | Total: 45When the schedule came out, this was supposed to showcase Jimmy Garoppolo leading the defending N.F.C. champions into Dak Prescott’s house to rekindle a classic rivalry. Backup quarterback Nick Mullens facing off against Andy Dalton doesn’t really live up to that advanced billing. Technically, neither team has been eliminated from playoff contention, with the 49ers (5-8) having a 9 percent chance at a wild-card spot and the Cowboys (4-9) having a 1 percent chance of winning the N.F.C. East. With San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert uncertain to play and wide receiver Deebo Samuel expected to be out, the Cowboys have a decent chance at a second straight win. Pick: Cowboys +2.5Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -6.5 | Total: 49.5Oklahoma Coach Lincoln Riley will love this one. Kyler Murray of the Cardinals (7-6) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2017 and won the Heisman Trophy in 2018. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles (4-8-1) transferred to Oklahoma to play for Riley in 2019 and was a Heisman finalist. Hurts’s promotion to starting quarterback for Philadelphia last week set up this matchup between two of Riley’s star pupils, and while the over-under on this game isn’t particularly high, you can expect plenty of highlight reel plays. Hurts has a chance to keep following in Murray’s formidable footsteps, but right now Murray is a more complete player and the Cardinals are a better team. With Arizona’s chance at a wild card around 50 percent, the team should be motivated to win at home. Pick: Cardinals -6.5Monday’s MatchupMike Hilton contributed an interception for Pittsburgh last week, but injuries to that team’s defense have helped lead to two straight losses.Credit…Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressPittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Steelers -11.5 | Total: 40.5Be it injuries, an offensive slump or regression to the mean, the Steelers (11-2) went from 11 straight wins to two consecutive losses. There was a sense, particularly toward the end of the win streak, that Pittsburgh was overrated, but the shift in circumstances has been extreme, especially when you consider it has dropped to the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., with just an 11 percent chance of overtaking Kansas City for a first-round bye, according to The Upshot.The Bengals (2-10-1), who have been eliminated from playoff contention, are likely to bear the brunt of Pittsburgh’s frustration. It is not that a blowout win over a bad, injury-riddled team would do much for the Steelers’ fortunes, but it might help them wash away the bad taste in their mouths from the last few weeks.There should be no surprises in this one, even if the point spread is a bit large for a team that is struggling offensively. Pick: Bengals +11.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Dolphins -2.5, for example, means that Miami must beat New England by at least 3 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Can Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storytrend watchCan Any A.F.C. Team Catch the Chiefs?Sure, Kansas City (12-1) is flawed, but its closest challengers have a long way to go to usurp a Super Bowl berth.Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, left, and receiver Tyreek Hill, with football, usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for any Chiefs miscues.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesDec. 16, 2020, 3:00 a.m. ETThe only real danger to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs will be the Chiefs themselves.The defending N.F.L. champions have grown bored of terrestrial football lately. The Chiefs (who have already clinched the A.F.C. West) now strive to turn their games into inscrutable performance art installations, allowing inferior opponents to stay close while they execute play concepts that appear to have been found scribbled in the margins of Hunter S. Thompson manuscripts.Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill usually connect for a few 40-yard touchdowns to compensate for their penalties, turnovers and self-indulgent noodling, but the Chiefs’ weekly attempts to commune with the cosmos could eventually result in a playoff upset that allows one of the following pretty good — but far from flawless — challengers to represent the A.F.C. in the Super Bowl.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)The Steelers rose to 11-0 by pummeling opponents’ backup quarterbacks while hoping that no one noticed that their offense is built entirely out of screen passes. The Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills figured out in recent victories over the Steelers that Ben Roethlisberger now throws the football like he’s trying to float a Ping-Pong ball into a red plastic cup. The Steelers’ defense remains dominant, when not dealing with health issues, and the team can find reassurance in the fact that Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers nearly beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season with the same set of strengths and weaknesses.Buffalo Bills (10-3)Decades in the shadow of the New England Patriots left the Bills with a deep-seated inferiority complex, and they lost important midseason games to the Chiefs and Tennessee Titans after a 4-0 start by playing as if they simply felt unworthy of being counted among the A.F.C. front-runners.The Bills appear to have outgrown their self-doubt in recent victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Steelers, but behavioral conditioning can be hard to break. If quarterback Josh Allen transforms back into an interception-happy Winter Soldier when the Bills visit the Patriots in Week 16, it may mean that the Bills have been irrevocably compromised.Tennessee Titans (9-4)Running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter, Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You,” or a holiday shopper stiff-arming store greeters and grandparents en route to an (empty) PlayStation 5 display. Henry rushed for 215 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, and he appears determined to stuff the Titans’ traditional smash mouth values down everyone’s throats for the holidays just like he did last year.The Titans’ defense is not nearly as rugged and playoff-ready as their old-fashioned reputation might suggest, but bludgeoning skeptics into quiet acquiescence is also a December tradition, as is post-holiday disappointment.Titans running back Derrick Henry is an indomitable December force, like a Nor’easter or Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas is You.” Credit…Sam Greenwood/Getty ImagesCleveland Browns (9-4)With their balanced offense and dangerous pass rush, the Browns are almost ready to compete for the Super Bowl. But the universe itself is not quite ready for the Browns to compete for the Super Bowl; Lamar Jackson’s recovery from mid-game cramps and fourth-quarter comeback to defeat the Browns in Monday night’s 47-42 thriller may have been reality’s way of repairing a dangerous rift in its own fabric.The Browns are enjoying their first winning season since 2007. Allowing them to enjoy anything more would simply be too much pleasure for anyone to experience in 2020.Indianapolis Colts (9-4)The Colts are kit-bashed together from leftover pieces of the 2010s San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers (Philip Rivers), 2017 Minnesota Vikings (cornerback Xavier Rhodes) and last year’s 49ers (defensive tackle DeForest Buckner), all hot-glued onto the frame of the Andrew Luck-era team. As a result, they look pretty good until you examine closely and realize that they were cobbled together almost purposely so they could lose a playoff game.Miami Dolphins (8-5)The Dolphins are better at making opponents look foolish than at making themselves look like legitimate contenders. They combined takeaways (they’re tied with the Steelers for the N.F.L. lead with 25) with excellent special teams and an ultraconservative offense to upset the Los Angeles Rams, throw a scare into the Chiefs last week and win lots of low-scoring games against the Jets and other bottom-feeders.Like the Bills, the Dolphins may be programmed by decades of hopelessness to self-destruct if they come too close to success. Head coach Brian Flores already benched rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in one loss in what looked like a panicky move, and Flores might be tempted to turn again to Ryan Fitzpatrick when he needs a comeback, not realizing that the real “FitzMagic” is the outsized reputation the journeyman backup has nurtured by almost winning meaningful games.Baltimore Ravens (8-5)With their midseason swoon behind them but with obvious lingering shortcomings on both sides of the ball, the Ravens are barreling toward yet another off-season of “why can’t Lamar Jackson win playoff games?” conversations. Come late January, that may be the only thing fathers-in-law on Facebook have to talk about.Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season in November. But asking them to be on the field during the playoffs is a stretch.Credit…David Becker/Associated PressThe Raiders remain mathematically alive but have lost three of their last four games, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther on Sunday after surrendering 44 points in a loss to the Colts and (more troublingly) 28 points in a near-loss to the Jets.The Raiders upset the Chiefs in Week 5 and lost by just four points in the Week 11 rematch, so they cannot be discounted as a threat if they reach the playoffs. But again: The trick to winning the A.F.C. is to be on the field when the Chiefs decide to beat themselves. The Raiders are the least likely of the A.F.C. playoff hopefuls to position themselves to make that happen.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Lamar Jackson Returns to Seal Ravens’ Win Over Browns

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyravens 47, browns 42Lamar Jackson Returns to Seal Ravens’ Win Over BrownsThe N.F.L.’s reigning most valuable player was treated for cramps but returned to Monday night’s game to throw a touchdown pass and set up a field-goal drive to beat surging Cleveland.Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson hugged kicker Justin Tucker after Tucker put Baltimore ahead late in the fourth quarter in a win against the Cleveland Browns.Credit…Ron Schwane/Associated PressDec. 15, 2020, 12:23 a.m. ETCLEVELAND — Lamar Jackson emerged from the locker room, saved the game and maybe Baltimore’s season.Back on the field after being sidelined by cramps, Jackson threw a 44-yard touchdown pass to Marquise Brown and then set up Justin Tucker’s 55-yard field goal with two seconds left, helping the Ravens to a wild 47-42 win over the Cleveland Browns that helped them stay in the playoff picture.A Monday night game dripping with playoff intensity delivered with endless drama and stunning twists.Tucker, who made 70 straight field goals inside 40 yards before he missed last week, had plenty of distance on his kick to give the Ravens (8-5) a much-needed win.It was a gut punch for the Browns (9-4), who had rallied from a 14-point deficit to take the lead while Jackson was out.The Browns had one last chance after Tucker’s kick, but a series of laterals on the final play ended with a safety that affected gamblers all over the country. The Ravens were favored by three on the opening line.The N.F.L.’s top two rushing teams combined for nine rushing touchdowns, tying a league record set in 1922.Jackson rushed for two touchdowns while rescuing his teammates, who have overcome a Covid-19 outbreak and numerous scheduled changes so far in 2020.With the Ravens down, 42-35, Jackson returned from the locker after backup quarterback Trace McSorley suffered a leg injury when he slipped on a slick FirstEnergy Stadium field that was tough for players to cut on all night.On fourth-and-5, Jackson calmly rolled to his right and found a wide-open Brown in the middle of the field and he easily outran Cleveland’s defenders for the touchdown score.But Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to be denied. He drove the Browns 75 yards, hitting running back Kareem Hunt for a 22-yard touchdown pass with 1:04 left.Jackson then showed why he’s a superstar.The reigning N.F.L. most valuable player completed two straight passes to tight end Mark Andrews for 28 yards and moved the Ravens in range for Tucker, one of the most accurate kickers in league history.Mayfield had shaken off a costly interception and brought the Browns back, scrambling from the pocket and scoring on a run with 6:33 left.Cleveland looked like a different team — like a playoff team.Jackson was playing in his second game since returning from the Covid-19 list. Before he left late in the third quarter with the Ravens leading, 34-20, he had rushed for 124 yards and two touchdowns.The Browns will next make the first of two straight weekend visits to the New York area to play the Giants on Dec. 20 and the winless Jets on Dec. 27.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More