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    NFL Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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    Tom Brady faces Bill Belichick, the Rams and the Cardinals fight to stay undefeated, and the Browns’ pass rush travels to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Guess what? Tom Brady heads to Foxborough, Mass., to play the Patriots this weekend. You probably already knew that, though.Brady’s return to New England pits him against Coach Bill Belichick, with whom he won six Super Bowls over two decades. Brady is back in town with a freshly acquired Super Bowl ring and needing only 68 yards to break Drew Brees’s N.F.L. record for career passing yards. But there are other grudge matches around the N.F.L. in Week 4, including an N.F.C. West showdown between the unbeaten Rams and Cardinals and a scary Browns pass rush traveling to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 4, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 12-4All times Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s MatchupSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s other gamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s MatchupJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bengals -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Jaguars’ streak of allowing an average of 302.3 passing yards per game should continue this week against the Bengals (2-1) as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seem to have rediscovered their college chemistry in the pros.Burrow and Chase have connected for touchdown passes in each of their three games, including two last week in the 24-10 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Trevor Lawrence’s acclimation to the league has been rough; the rookie has thrown seven interceptions compared with only five touchdowns. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to score at will while the Jaguars (0-3) struggle to respond. Pick: Bengals -7.5Sunday’s Best GamesTampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 49After the pomp and circumstance around Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium as a visitor dies down, the game itself should be competitive. The Buccaneers (2-1) will have Antonio Brown back from the reserve/Covid list, but the team will be without slot receiver Scotty Miller, who has a toe injury, and potentially the pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, who sat out against the Los Angeles Rams with hand and shoulder injuries. The veteran free-agent cornerback Richard Sherman will join the team as its secondary battles injuries, though Coach Bruce Arians said he doubted Sherman would play on Sunday.Teams have not run effectively against Tampa Bay’s front seven and have instead exploited its defensive backs. The Bucs’ secondary has allowed opponents to throw for over 300 yards twice, including in a loss to the Rams last week, when Matthew Stafford tossed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Brady will be motivated to win, and the Bucs most likely will, but the secondary’s struggles give Mac Jones and the Patriots a chance to cover the spread. Pick: Patriots +6.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -6 | Total: 54.5Matthew Stafford’s connection with Cooper Kupp has made the receiver a fantasy football must-have. Kupp leads the N.F.L. in receiving yards (367) and touchdown receptions (5) and is tied at first for catches (25).Their chemistry will test the Cardinals’ defense, which has yet to face an offense as dynamic as the Rams’ (3-0). Though both teams are undefeated, the Cardinals (3-0) were saved from a loss to the Vikings in Week 2 by a shanked field-goal attempt and played down to the lowly Jaguars last week. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are unlikely to allow Kyler Murray to again put up video game numbers — he’s averaging 335 yards per game — and Rams Coach Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. He is likely to keep that streak alive. Pick: Rams -6Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week against the Bears, will hound Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins on Sunday.Kirk Irwin/Associated PressCleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -2 | Total: 53Kirk Cousins has yet to throw an interception this season, but the Browns (2-1) are the most complete defense the Vikings (1-2) will have seen.Cousins has thrown for more than 300 yards twice, including last week while running back Dalvin Cook was out with an ankle injury. Cook’s replacement, Alexander Mattison, rushed for 112 yards in his absence. It’s unclear whether Cook will play on Sunday, but if Cook returns or Mattison starts, the Browns’ defense will be up for the challenge. The unit ranks fifth in the league against the rush (201 yards allowed) and second in sacks (14). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense last week welcomed back receiver Odell Beckham Jr. from his knee injury. Those factors make betting with the Vikings tough, and the spread may honestly be too low. Pick: Browns -2Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: San Francisco -2.5 | Total: 52Hello, defense? Is anyone home? Pete Carroll must be asking his team that question after the Seahawks (1-2) allowed opponents to amass over 450 yards of offense in each of the last two games. No amount of Russell Wilson magic can save a game with those defensive performances.The 49ers (2-1) will be eager to play again after narrowly losing to the Packers on a last-second field goal. But they continue to battle injuries on both sides of the ball, with important players like tight end George Kittle (calf) and Josh Norman (lungs) listed as day-to-day. If Seattle can muster some sort of respectable defensive outing for pride’s sake, then the Seahawks could manage to be competitive and cover the spread. Pick: Seattle +2.5Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -1 | Total: 44Their undefeated record has come against winless opponents, so the Broncos (3-0) will try to get a statement win over the Ravens (2-1), who last week struggled before closing out the Lions. Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be without receiver K.J. Hamler, the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver, who tore his left anterior cruciate ligament in another big loss to the receiving corps after Jerry Jeudy was placed on injury reserve earlier in the season.After an overtime loss to open the season, the Ravens have closed out thrilling victories at home and on the road. They should be able to ride that momentum to give Denver its first loss. Pick: Ravens +1Sunday’s other gamesCarolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -4 | Total: 50Losing running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and cornerback Jaycee Horn (foot) should devastate the Panthers (3-0) and their chances of remaining undefeated. With McCaffrey out for “a few weeks,” according to Coach Matt Rhule, receiver D.J. Moore is the Panthers’ best offensive weapon. He is likely to be shadowed by the Cowboys’ top cornerback, Trevon Diggs, who has had an interception in every game this season.The Cowboys will keep up an aggressive offensive attack as the offensive coordinator Kellen Moore tries to exploit a secondary that hastily added C.J. Henderson via trade during the week. Until proven otherwise, expect the Panthers’ offense to backslide and struggle without McCaffrey as its workhorse. Pick: Cowboys -4Washington’s defense has underperformed so far this season. Led by defensive end Chase Young, it could bounce back against the Falcons.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressWashington Footballers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 48Oddsmakers are essentially predicting a tossup, largely because Washington has not played to its potential. The Footballers’ defense, in theory, should overpower the Falcons (1-2), as Atlanta has rushed for 100 yards only once and is still heavily relying on Matt Ryan’s arm at the ripe age of 36. But the Footballers (1-2) failed to sack Bills quarterback Josh Allen last week, and he dissected them for four touchdowns. Against a weaker offensive line, Washington should find more success. Pick: Footballers -1.5.Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -17 | Total: 48The line on this game is absurdly lopsided and rightfully so. The Bills’ defense generated three turnovers in each of the last two games. It is likely to feast on Davis Mills of the Texans (1-2), who threw for 168 yards and was sacked four times in his first N.F.L. start last week against Carolina. Mills is likely to do more to limit the production of Texans receiver Brandin Cooks than the Bills (2-1). Expect the score to get ugly quick. Pick: Bills -17Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -3 | Total: 42.5This could finally be the one.The Lions (0-3) have played competitively in first halves against playoff-caliber teams, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker had to convert a 66-yard field-goal attempt to rob Detroit of a win last week. That evasive W may come against the Bears (1-2), who posted 1 net passing yard (yes, you read that correctly) and allowed the rookie Justin Fields to take nine sacks against the Browns. Coach Matt Nagy said Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are all under consideration to start. The Lions could capitalize on that dysfunction. Pick: Lions +3Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -1.5 | Total: 43.5Injuries continue to plague the Colts (0-3), most recently with the All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson spraining his ankle and needing to be carted off the field last week. Coach Frank Reich did not rule out Nelson, but said his chances of playing were “not looking good.” Nelson’s availability would help against the Dolphins (1-2), who feature an aggressive and opportunistic defense. Miami’s backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, completed over 65 percent of his passes in an overtime loss to the Raiders in Week 3, showing he can manage the offense efficiently while Tua Tagovailoa’s ribs heal. If that responsible play continues and the defense generates pressure and turnovers, the Carson Wentz experiment in Indianapolis could remain winless. Pick: Dolphins -1.5Giants at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 43.5Giants receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton injured hamstrings in Week 3, potentially removing two of Daniel Jones’s favorite targets. He’ll need every asset the Giants (0-3) can offer to combat the inevitable deafening noise in the Superdome for the Saints’ first true home game of the season. The Saints (2-1), whose defense collected three interceptions last week against the Patriots, could produce a similar outing as Jones throws to receivers on the bottom of the depth chart. Pick: Saints -7.5Tennessee Titans at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 46Receiver A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury should not stop the Titans (2-1) from winning this game easily, given the team’s other formidable stars, running back Derrick Henry and receiver Julio Jones. The Jets, however, lack such options. The rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions to two touchdowns, and the Jets (0-3) have rushed for more than 100 yards only once. Even a developing defense like Tennessee’s should be able to contain the Jets’ attack. Pick: Titans -7.5Kansas City at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Kansas City -6 | Total: 54.5Kansas City (1-2) has had back-to-back losses only three times since 2018, making this uncommon territory for a perennial Super Bowl contender. They are likely to bounce back against the Eagles (1-2), who took a beating from Dallas on Monday and had a short week to prepare.Kansas City Coach Andy Reid reportedly returned to work Tuesday after being treated for dehydration after Sunday’s game. He will most likely preach ball security to his team, which committed six total turnovers in losses to the Ravens and the Chargers. If the Chiefs can fix those issues, their firepower should be too much for the Eagles’ young offense to respond. Pick: Kansas City -6Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 45.5The Steelers’ pedestrian offense has been a problem and now faces a Packers team (2-1) that is beginning to click. Pittsburgh’s quarterback weakness has been well documented, but Ben Roethlisberger ranks third in the N.F.L. in passing attempts in large part because the team has yet to rush for more than 75 yards in a game this season and its defense has given up first-quarter leads.The Steelers (1-2) are hopeful outside linebacker T.J. Watt (groin) will be available after missing last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers’s output should still far exceed that of the Steelers’ offense. Pick: Packers -6.5Monday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offensive line has allowed only five sacks of Justin Herbert this season, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), which could put it in a bind against defensive end Maxx Crosby and the Raiders.Kyusung Gong/Associated PressLas Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 52.5With Kansas City figuring out how to end its rut and the Broncos facing their first winning opponent, the Chargers or the Raiders will gain valuable ground in the A.F.C. West. The outcome will come down to whether the Chargers’ new-look offensive line can hold its own against the Raiders’ improved pass rush. The Chargers (2-1) have allowed only five sacks, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), including notable flags for illegal shifts in a loss to the Cowboys and a narrow win over the Chiefs.This one will have exceptional player matchups to watch — between the Chargers rookie tackle Rashawn Slater and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby, and Chargers safety Derwin James against Raiders tight end Darren Waller — but the Raiders (3-0) may have the edge if running back Josh Jacobs returns after missing two games with an ankle injury. Pick: Raiders +3.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Steelers -4.5, for example, means that Pittsburgh must beat Cincinnati by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      What We Learned From Week 3 of the N.F.L. Season

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      Justin Herbert and the Chargers want a Chiefs rivalry, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen and the Steelers aren’t winning their bet on Ben Roethlisberger.The No. 1 takeaway from Week 3 in the N.F.L.? These new-look Los Angeles Chargers possess precisely what it takes to beat the Kansas City Chiefs: guts. An endless supply of guts.Chargers Coach Brandon Staley understands that you kick at your own peril against these Chiefs. Working the clock, too, is an ancient concept that leads to your demise. All conventional football wisdom flies out the window when it comes to Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and this juggernaut Chiefs offense. But it finally appears that a coach, a quarterback and a team in the A.F.C. West understand all that.Staley called pass plays often, early and late, and his quarterback, Justin Herbert, delivered 281 passing yards on 26-of-38 passing with four touchdowns and no interceptions. These Chargers proved they aren’t those Chargers of old with a signature win, stunning the Chiefs, 30-24, in Kansas City, Mo.“Any time you’re playing an offense that’s this historic,” Staley said at his postgame news conference, “when you’re playing against three players that are historic players in the game, you have to be aggressive. Not reckless. But you have to be aggressive.”Even with the Chargers taking a 14-point lead in the first half, it seemed there was more than enough time for Mahomes to conjure his magic. And that’s what happened in the third quarter as Mahomes threw two consecutive touchdown passes to give the Chiefs a 17-14 lead. The drama ramped up when the Chiefs scored on an 8-yard shovel pass to Mecole Hardman to take a 24-21 lead with 6 minutes 48 seconds to go.And the Chargers punched back. First, Herbert directed a 10-play, 69-yard drive to tie it at 24. That’s when, just one week after his costly turnover in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Mahomes had another backbreaking error. His third-and-8 overthrow of tight end Travis Kelce was intercepted by Alohi Gilman at the Chargers’ 41-yard line with a little less than two minutes left.The 23-year-old Herbert went back to work. On third-and-2 on that first set of downs, he fired a 15-yarder to Keenan Allen in stride.On fourth-and-4, with 48 seconds left, Staley bypassed a 47-yard field-goal attempt to win it. And when his rookie left tackle, Rashawn Slater, was flagged for a false start? Staley kept the offense on the field for fourth-and-9. Again, guts. Herbert uncorked another fastball to receiver Jalen Guyton and Chiefs cornerback DeAndre Baker was flagged for interference. Coach and quarterback were not done yet, either. With the clock ticking to 41 seconds — and the ball at Kansas City’s 20-yard line — most teams would settle for the field goal.That’s the safe call. That is, almost always, the right call.Not against the Chiefs.Herbert lobbed a perfect 16-yard pass to Mike Williams, who got out of bounds, then lofted a 4-yard score to Williams on first-and-10 with 32 seconds remaining. Even CBS analyst Tony Romo scolded the Chargers for leaving Mahomes too much time.The Chargers were proven correct, of course.The former league M.V.P. scrambled for 21 yards and his final Hail Mary fell short.So much could have gone wrong for the Chargers in going for that touchdown — but Staley was right to make the Chiefs go the length of the field. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-4 and then again on fourth-and-9 marks a new fearlessness in the face of the Chiefs’ magic. This came the week after Ravens Coach John Harbaugh played for the win against Kansas City in Week 2 and both coaches surely remember what went down in the A.F.C. playoffs a year ago.In the divisional round, down, 22-17, to the Chiefs, Browns Coach Kevin Stefanski opted to punt on fourth-and-9 from his own 32-yard line with 4:19 remaining. The Browns never touched the ball again.In the A.F.C. title game, Bills Coach Sean McDermott opted to kick a field goal from Kansas City’s 2-yard line at the end of the first half to cut Buffalo’s deficit to 21-12. And in the second half of that game, McDermott opted for another field goal on fourth down from the Chiefs’ 8-yard line. The Bills were blown out, 38-24.Both are perfectly fine coaches building long-term winners.Both made grave mistakes.There was zero need for Staley to play it safe. He has a quarterback capable of swapping haymakers with Mahomes.This rivalry is going to be a lot of fun.Josh Allen enjoyed a win over Washington. The Bills quarterback ran in a score and threw four touchdown passes, including one to tight end Dawson Knox, right, in the second quarter.Joshua Bessex/Getty ImagesJosh Allen is A-OK.Buffalonians are overcome with the same “We can’t have nice things” fear every year. Eventually, we reason, everything is bound to go wrong. So even after Josh Allen finished second in the M.V.P. Award voting last season and even after the Bills won their first division title since 1995, a feeling of dread lingers in Western New York.In a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, Allen looked like that raw rookie out of Wyoming.In a Week 2 rout of Miami, he didn’t look much better.Week 3? Allen eviscerated the Washington Football Team in a 43-21 win. With three touchdown passes to build a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter, Allen looked like the pinpointing thrower the Bills thought worthy of a six-year, $258 million contract this off-season.He rolled right and slung a 28-yard pass to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the end zone to cap Buffalo’s first drive.Allen didn’t panic on the Bills’ third drive, when Washington defensive tackle Daron Payne brought pressure in the red zone. On third-and-4 from Washington’s 7-yard line, Allen shimmied to his right and hit running back Zack Moss in stride with a touchdown pass.When Jordan Poyer intercepted Taylor Heinicke on the ensuing Washington possession, giving the Bills a short field, Allen found tight end Dawson Knox’s back shoulder for a 14-yard score. The ball placement was perfect.Washington cut the Bills’ lead to 21-14 with quick scores in the second quarter, but Buffalo smothered the threat with offense, scoring on five of its final seven possessions. Allen was accurate as ever, throwing for 358 yards, four touchdowns and no picks with a 129.8 passer rating.Everything came so easy for the Bills’ passing game in 2020. Not since Jim Kelly in the early 1990s could locals expect something good to happen late in the fourth quarter instead of something bad.Short-circuiting for two weeks ushered back that feeling of impending doom. Sunday’s win brought on the realization that, as good as Stefon Diggs is, this Bills team is at its best when Allen is dealing to receivers — like Emmanuel Sanders, who hauled in two touchdown catches — all over the field.The Vikings aren’t dead yet.When everything’s perfect around quarterback Kirk Cousins, he’ll carve up a defense.Things aren’t perfect in Minnesota but Cousins looks more nimble than ever in the pocket, and more accurate than ever throwing to what is easily the most talent the most talent he’s been surrounded with on offense.As a result, these Minnesota Vikings (1-2) showed signs of life in a 30-17 win over the Seahawks (1-2).Through three games, Cousins has passed for 918 yards with eight touchdowns, zero interceptions and has been sacked only five times.Seattle had no answer for Minnesota’s offense — even with Dalvin Cook sidelined — and, this time, Russell Wilson couldn’t rally.Pressure didn’t seem to bother Cousins one bit. On arguably his best throw of the night — a third-and-5 conversion with eight minutes left — he faded backward just enough to avoid a blitzing, untouched linebacker and delivered a 15-yard pass to K.J. Osborn on a crossing route.It was the sort of throw we’ve rarely seen Cousins make in his career, but if he can beat the blitz like this? This Vikings offense will keep rolling.Ben Roethlisberger attempted 58 passes in Sunday’s loss to the Bengals despite playing with a pectoral injury.Gene J. Puskar/Associated PressThe Steelers may have made a bad bet.This was the massive risk the Pittsburgh Steelers took heading into 2021. They had no interest in a total rebuild and so they welcomed 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger back — on a pay cut — to a division where Lamar Jackson (24), Baker Mayfield (26) and Joe Burrow (24) are the other starters.With a lot of defense, and just enough of a ground game, Pittsburgh bet that a team that started 11-0 in 2020 could again rev into form as a Super Bowl contender. That may still turn out to be the case. Pittsburgh opened this 2021 season with a stunning win in Buffalo. But on Sunday, we learned this will be a very difficult bet to ride through another full season.The Cincinnati Bengals, the A.F.C. North’s forever doormat, waltzed into Heinz Field and dominated, winning at Pittsburgh, 24-10.Burrow, a second-year quarterback who is coming off a heinous knee injury last season, finished with a 122.9 passer rating on 14-for-18 passing for 172 yards. The Steelers’ talented secondary struggled keeping up with Burrow and his former Louisiana State teammate Ja’Marr Chase, who caught two of his three touchdown passes.Roethlisberger threw the ball a ridiculous 58 times, which is about 38 more times than Coach Mike Tomlin would probably like. Najee Harris, the running back drafted in the first round to change the ethos of this offense, has not been able to dominate fronts the way he did at Alabama and that remade Steelers line may have something to do with it.Pittsburgh got down early, was not able to play a clock-controlling run game and likely cannot help but wonder if Roethlisberger will be able to keep up in this division.A Bit About Sunday’s Other GamesRavens 19, Lions 17: Kickers matter. Justin Tucker’s game-winning, 66-yard field goal showed him as maybe the most clutch kicker of his generation. But let’s not forget what set up the longest kick in N.F.L. history: Lamar Jackson’s 36-yard strike to Sammy Watkins on fourth-and-19 from his own 16-yard line.Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19: It was not pretty. A 68-yard field-goal attempt by the Cardinals backfired, badly, in the form of a 109-yard touchdown return. But Arizona sure lacked ugly wins last season. Now that the Cardinals are 3-0 for the first time since 2015, they should make no apologies.Saints 28, Patriots 13: If Mac Jones needs to throw 51 times per game as he did Sunday, the Patriots aren’t going to win much. The play script got away from New England at home and, of course, Jameis Winston supplied the sort of touchdown pass only he can.Falcons 17, Giants 14: The good news: Saquon Barkley scored his first touchdown since 2019. The bad: everything else. Barkley managed 3.2 yards per carry against the hapless Falcons, Daniel Jones was average and the Giants are 0-3.Titans 25, Colts 16: Colts quarterback Carson Wentz gave it a go on two sprained ankles and played like a quarterback on two sprained ankles. He didn’t run the ball once, threw it away several times and the Titans rolled despite their three turnovers. Tennessee’s offense proved it is talented enough to win even when Derrick Henry and Julio Jones don’t score.Browns 26, Bears 6: Chicago fans wanted to see Justin Fields. They got Justin Fields. The former Ohio State star has a long road ahead — especially with this roster. Fields had only six completions the entire game, while getting sacked nine times — 4.5 times by Myles Garrett — and hit 15 times in all.Broncos 26, Jets 0: Until they play the Chargers or the Chiefs, it’s hard to get an accurate read on how good this Broncos team is, but there’s no denying the defense absolutely gives Denver a shot against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.Rams 34, Buccaneers 24: We knew this Sean McVay-Matthew Stafford combo had potential but not many predicted they’d be ready to down the Bucs defense this early in the season. Stafford completed 27 of 38 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns, no picks and was only sacked once.Raiders 31, Dolphins 28 (overtime): The Dolphins made it interesting but give Coach Jon Gruden and quarterback Derek Carr credit for finding a way to win another close game. Arguably no quarterback is playing better than Carr right now and the Raiders are 3-0.Packers 30, 49ers 28: The slightest mistake will cost a team against a determined Aaron Rodgers and, chances are, Jimmy Garoppolo will be thinking about snapping the ball with 12 seconds still on the play clock with less than a minute left in the fourth quarter all week. Sure, the 49ers scored that play but Rodgers had more than enough time — even with no timeouts left — to get the Packers into field goal range. Two passes to Davante Adams, a 25-yarder and a 17-yarder, was all it took. More

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      NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

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      Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      Which A.F.C. Teams Could Challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

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      The Kansas City Chiefs fortified their offensive line in pursuit of another championship, but the Bills, Browns and a bevy of first-year starters should shake up the order.With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, it’s fair to say that the conference once ruled by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning now belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.But last season’s churn lifted new contenders and stoked new rivalries that could define the next decade for the A.F.C. The Buffalo Bills reached the conference championship and the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game, both for the first time since 1994, and the two franchises are looking to build on that success. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will try to settle their disdain for each other without drawing newly emphasized taunting penalties this season.Though the Texans’ fate is wrapped up in Deshaun Watson’s future, rookie quarterbacks will have their say elsewhere as the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Jets’ Zach Wilson and Patriots’ Mac Jones make their debuts. Here’s a look at where the A.F.C. stands as the 2021 season kicks off.A.F.C. EastBuffalo Bills (13-3)Key additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt BreidaKey departures: WR John Brown, CB Josh NormanThe Bills came within one game of returning to the Super Bowl last season, so their priority was to lock in their best talent, starting with quarterback Josh Allen, who signed a six-year contract extension during training camp. To round out what were the N.F.L.’s second-best offense and a middling defense in 2020, the team also re-signed linebacker Matt Milano, guard Jon Feliciano and offensive tackle Daryl Williams, and picked up the fifth-year option on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and restocked the offensive and defensive lines early in the draft.Miami Dolphins (10-6)Key additions: WR Will Fuller V, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman, RB Malcolm BrownKey departures: LB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan FitzpatrickThe Dolphins were one of the most improved teams in the N.F.L. in 2020, bouncing back from a five-win 2019 season to narrowly miss a playoff berth. To get over the postseason hump, the team gave quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another deep threat in Fuller, to go with DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle, whom the Dolphins drafted sixth overall. Tagovailoa went 6-3 in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns last season, so there’s reason to expect improvement, but if he falters, Brissett’s one-year deal gives the Dolphins a veteran to step in to lead an offense that ranked 22nd in the league last year.New England Patriots (7-9)Key additions: QB Mac Jones, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, WR Nelson AgholorKey departures: QB Cam Newton, RB Sony Michel, S Patrick Chung, OG Joe ThuneyBill Belichick doesn’t like losing and after experiencing his first losing season since 2000, the year he took over in New England, the Patriots’ coach had a very busy off-season. Quarterback Cam Newton clearly was not the long-term solution to the hole left by Tom Brady, but the rookie Jones will face an expedited development after Newton’s sudden release at the end of training camp.Jones benefits from Belichick’s free agent spending in the off-season, when the coach used the league’s second-most cap space to lure in elite tight ends Smith and Henry, who figure to factor heavily in the offense. Defensive back Jalen Mills and linebacker Matthew Judon, who spent five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, round out the summer haul that should alert Buffalo and Miami that Belichick wants his division back.New York Jets (2-14)The Jets took quarterback Zach Wilson from B.Y.U. with the second overall pick in this year’s draft.Matt Ludtke/Associated PressKey additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Carl LawsonKey departures: LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Tarell Basham, WR Breshad PerrimanAfter a disastrous 2020 season, the Jets and their new head coach, Robert Saleh, need more than just one off-season to fill all the holes in their roster. They began the restock in April’s draft by selecting Wilson, who takes over what was the league’s worst offense, and targeting the secondary by taking five defensive backs, led by Jamien Sherwood of Auburn.Davis and Keelan Cole Sr. should provide receiver depth alongside Jamison Crowder, and running back Tevin Coleman, who arrives in free agency after playing in only eight games for the 49ers last season due to a knee injury, should give Wilson a release valve if he’s healthy.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. NorthBaltimore Ravens (11-5)Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, LT Alejandro VillanuevaKey departures: RB Mark Ingram II, LB Matthew Judon, DE Yannick NgakoueBy their standards, the Ravens had a down year in 2020 despite finishing 11-5 in one of the league’s most competitive divisions. Opponents found ways to slow the team’s running game and quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose season ended with a concussion sustained during the divisional round loss to the Buffalo Bills.Jackson enters his fourth season no doubt motivated to show why he deserves a big long-term contract extension and Watkins’ deep threat potential should help him make his case. He will also need to adjust to the absence of J.K. Dobbins, the lead running back who suffered a season-ending knee injury during a preseason game, though the Ravens have a capable backup in Gus Edwards.Team executives aiming for a deeper postseason run focused as usual on defense, re-signing linebackers Chris Board, Tyus Bowser and L.J. Fort, to go with a talented backfield that includes Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.Cornerback Marcus Peters and the Ravens celebrated a fourth-quarter interception in the A.F.C. wild card win over the Titans in January.Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesCincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)Key additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RT Riley Reiff, CB Eli Apple, CB Ricardo AllenKey departures: WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani BernardQuarterback Joe Burrow, the first overall draft pick in 2020, saw his disappointing rookie season end in Week 11 when he tore ligaments in his left knee on a brutal hit. Burrow is expected to be back for the season opener against Minnesota, behind an improved offensive line coached by Frank Pollack, who returns to Cincinnati after two seasons with the Jets.Though the team passed over Penei Sewell to reunite Burrow with Chase, who should again give his quarterback a reliable deep threat, it added Reiff to the line on a one-year deal and drafted Jackson Carman, who protected Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, in the second round. Those additions likely won’t be enough to stop the Browns, Ravens and Steelers from continuing to dominate the division, but they’ll suffice if they keep Burrow off the operating table.Cleveland Browns (11-5)Key additions: DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Greg Newsome, S John Johnson, LB Anthony WalkerKey departures: DT Sheldon RichardsonAfter ending the N.F.L.’s longest playoff drought with a wild card win over the vaunted Steelers, the Browns aren’t settling for a victory lap in the 2021 season. General Manger Andrew Berry continued revamping the roster this off-season, with a square aim on a defense that allowed too many clock-sucking drives in 2020.Berry brought in the top available defensive free agent in April, signing Clowney to a one-year deal to complement Myles Garrett in the pass rush, and added Johnson, perhaps the best available secondary player in free agency. Baker Mayfield, who cut down his turnovers in 2020, should benefit from having a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. to target.Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)Key additions: RB Najee Harris, DB Miles Killebrew, OT Joe HaegKey departures: RB James Conner, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Bud Dupree, T Alejandro VillanuevaThe Ben Roethlisberger era, now in its 18th season, persists. How it will end is the question. Big Ben, 39, seemed to toss off any questions about his rebuilt throwing arm by beginning last season on an 11-0 run. But Pittsburgh couldn’t complete a rally in the wild card round to beat the Browns and the season was dashed well shy of expectations.The Steelers re-signed one of Roethlisberger’s favorite receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and drafted in the first round running back Najee Harris, who broke Derrick Henry’s rushing touchdowns record at Alabama. But the Steelers lost two of their best offensive linemen and with Cleveland on the rise and Baltimore looking for a longer playoff run, the Steelers will have a hard time winning the A.F.C. North again.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. SouthHouston Texans (4-12)Key arrivals: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Rex Burkhead, OT Marcus Cannon, OL Justin BrittKey departures: WR Will Fuller V, C Nick Martin, DE J.J. WattThe 22 pending lawsuits against Deshaun Watson accusing him of sexual misconduct, which he has denied, loom over a franchise that chooses to pretend it’s not at all weird for him to take fourth-team reps at quarterback or serve as scout-team safety — or be with the team at all. Then again, not much makes sense about the Texans, whose front-office dysfunction and salary-cap mismanagement alienated their best players and precipitated a roster, reconstituted with free agents on short-term deals and coached by a first-timer in David Culley, that may luck its way into a victory or two. Or maybe not.Indianapolis Colts (11-5)Key arrivals: QB Carson Wentz, OT Eric Fisher, DT Antwaun Woods, DE Kwity PayeKey departures: QB Philip Rivers, QB Jacoby Brissett, OT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, LB Justin Houston, S Malik HookerNot many teams are constructed and coached as well as the Colts, who went about solving the quarterback quandary prompted by Philip Rivers’s retirement … by acquiring one of the worst in the N.F.L by many statistical measures, advanced or traditional. Carson Wentz has been reunited with Coach Frank Reich and Press Taylor, former mentors in Philadelphia, but is recovering from foot surgery that imperils his availability for Week 1. If Wentz can’t revive his career, a team brimming with talent — guard Quenton Nelson, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard all rank among the best in the league at their positions — can expect to struggle, especially with a brutal early schedule.Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)Key arrivals: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Carlos Hyde, DT Malcom Brown, CB Shaquill GriffinKey departures: WR Keelan ColeIn a college hotbed, owner Shahid Khan has entrusted a successful college coach, Urban Meyer, and the best college quarterback prospect in a decade to resuscitate one of the N.F.L.’s woebegone franchises. The Jaguars will be relevant. Whether they’ll be anything more than competitive depends on the progress of, duh, Lawrence, and their brigade of recent high draft picks, defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback C.J. Henderson and receiver Laviska Shenault. Alas, the Jaguars couldn’t schedule Florida A&M or Kent State to ease Meyer’s transition; they’ll have to settle for playing the Texans twice.Tennessee Titans (11-5)Key arrivals: WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autry, LB Bud Dupree, CB Caleb FarleyKey departures: WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Malcolm ButlerThe Titans were perhaps the most unbalanced team in the N.F.L. last season — elite offense, woeful defense — and hey, guess what? They very well might be again. Their off-season makeover yielded an inexperienced secondary and a thin group of pass-rushers headlined by Dupree, who is coming off knee surgery.It also netted Jones, who if he stays healthy adds another mismatch in the passing game to complement A.J. Brown. As assembled, the Titans are good enough to win this middling division again, but their chances would improve if they narrowed that gap between offense and defense even a bit.—Ben ShpigelA.F.C. WestDenver Broncos (5-11)Key Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Patrick Surtain II (1st round) CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle FullerKey Departures: RB Phillip Lindsay, CB A.J. Bouye, TE Nick Vannett, RT Ja’Wuan JamesThe Broncos spent much of training camp evaluating a quarterback battle between a journeyman and a young, inconsistent passer.Teddy Bridgewater, discarded by the Carolina Panthers in a trade, wrenched the starting job away from Drew Lock, who led the league in interceptions thrown in 2020. Bridgewater’s risk-averse play should be a boon to receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Star linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that kept him out last season, holding down a strong defense that got better for drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II and adding the veteran Fuller in free agency.Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown, OG Joe Thuney, DT Jarran Reed, OL Austin BlytheKey Departures: OT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, OT Mitchell SchwartzThe Chiefs’ depleted offensive line was exposed in last year’s playoffs, first when Mahomes took on a hit by the Browns in the divisional round, and definitively in the Super Bowl, when the Buccaneers sacked Mahomes twice and hit him nine times. General manager Brett Veach addressed the deficiency in the off-season by trading for Brown and drafting 6-foot-5 center Creed Humphrey in the second round. The new-look offensive line should give Mahomes the time in the pocket to find his speedy playmakers instead of relying on him to be one.Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)Key Additions: DL Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, OL Alex LeatherwoodKey Departures: WR Nelson Agholor, DE Takkarist McKinley, RB Devontae BookerTight end Darren Waller became the Raiders’ best offensive weapon last season, catching 107 passes and posting over 1,000 receiving yards. Opponents noticed. This season, defenses focused on stopping Waller should be kept honest by running back Josh Jacobs, who earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2020, and deep threat receiver Henry Ruggs III.The Raiders’ top-10 offense was weighed down by a defense that ranked 30th in the N.F.L. and gave up 389 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was brought in along with Ngakoue, who should compliment Maxx Crosby on the defensive line. That unit could hold control over how hot Coach Jon Gruden’s seat gets.Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)After missing all of the 2020 season and 11 games in 2019, Chargers safety Derwin James, right, is back to his pass-stealing ways in Los Angeles.Alex Gallardo/Associated PressKey Additions: C Corey Linsley, OT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, OT Rashawn SlaterKey Departures: TE Hunter Henry, CB Casey Hayward, DE Melvin IngramHad a team physician not accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, Justin Herbert may never have played last season. But he did, and his stellar performance — throwing for over 4,000 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, earned him the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Herbert’s rise was the bright spot in a season in which the Chargers clumsily lost seven games by one score and fired Coach Anthony Lynn.His replacement, Brandon Staley, takes over a revamped offensive line and gets back safety Derwin James, an All-Pro in 2018, who missed 11 games after fracturing his right foot in 2019 and sat out the 2020 season with a torn meniscus. With James healthy, a wild-card berth isn’t out of the question.—Emmanuel Morgan More