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    In Defense of Television, Soccer's All-Purpose Villain

    #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }What to WatchBest Movies on NetflixBest of Disney PlusBest of Amazon PrimeBest Netflix DocumentariesNew on NetflixAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyRory Smith On SoccerSpeaking Up for the Armchair FanTelevision, which influences everything from salaries to kickoff times, is soccer’s most convenient villain. But for the vast majority of fans, it’s the only connection they have.Critics of television’s influence on soccer ignore that it’s still the way most fans experience the game.Credit…Felix Schmitt for The New York TimesJan. 15, 2021, 1:22 p.m. ETTelevision is not a dirty word. It is not the sort of word that should be spat out in anger or growled with resentment or grumbled through gritted teeth. It is not a loaded word, or one laced with scorn and opprobrium and bile. It is not a word that has a tone. Not in most contexts, anyway.In soccer, television is treated as the dirtiest word you can imagine. It is an object of disdain and frustration and, sometimes, hatred. Managers, and occasionally players, rail against its power to dictate when games are played and how often. They resent its scrutiny and its bombast. Television is never cited as the root of anything pleasant. Television is the cause of nothing but problems.There is no need to linger for long on the irony and the hypocrisy here. Television, of course, is also what pays their wages. It is what has turned them into brands and businesses. It is television that means managers can accumulate squads full of stars, and it is television that means that, when they are fired, they leave with generous compensation packages. Television, and the money it pays to broadcast soccer, is what makes the whole circus possible.If anything, though, the contempt of players and coaches for television pales in comparison with that of most fans. They, too, talk about television with a certain tone: television as the force behind the erosion of the game’s values, television as the driver of unwelcome change, television as the root of all evil.Match-going fans in Germany have protested Monday games (Montagsspiele), which they deride as a surrender to television’s priorities.Credit…Armando Babani/EPA, via ShutterstockTo many fans, television has become something close to an antonym of tradition. It is television that has eaten away at the way the game used to be, distorting its form for its own ends. It is because of the needs of television that fixtures are spread across a weekend, rather than packed into a Saturday afternoon, as they always used to be. It is because of television that fans are forced to travel vast distances at inconvenient times. It is because of television that the game feels more distant, a religion reduced to just another form of entertainment.There is, and always has been, a strict hierarchy of authenticity among fans. At its head sit those who follow their team home and away, who devote countless hours of their lives, and whatever money they have, to the greater glory of the colors. They might, in some cases, be ultras, or members of some organized fan group, though that is not necessarily a prerequisite.Below them are those who hold a season ticket for home games. A step down are various stripes of match-going fans: those who attend regularly, those who go sometimes and so on, until we come to the bottom, where those who follow the game, their team, from the comfort of their own homes, through the television, reside. And there, almost audible, is that tone again.Both that hierarchy and that attitude are baked into the conceptual landscapes of most fans. It is as close as soccer comes to a universal truth. Even broader organizations, the ones that speak for fans’ rights and work to protect their interests, hover somewhere between disinterest in and outright scorn for “armchair fans.”In the latest annual report of the Football Supporters’ Association — a well-meaning, important body that represents soccer fans in England — there is a section entitled “TV Hell.”“In previous years this chapter has been full of the misery that broadcast changes have inflicted on match-going fans,” it begins. “From late changes to kickoff times, to Monday night away games 300 miles away, supporters’ encounters with broadcasters have been fraught and adversarial.”For the vast majority of fans, a television is part and parcel of the matchday experience.Credit…Boris Streubel/Getty ImagesWhat follows is not to suggest that any of those complaints are invalid. By the time fans return to stadiums after the pandemic, it would be nice to think that both leagues and broadcasters — having become painfully aware, in their absence, of how crucial they are to the spectacle of soccer — would take the needs of match-going fans into account far more than they once did.Capping ticket prices would be a start, a way of ensuring that seeing live sports in the flesh is no longer an innately privileged activity, one only readily available to certain demographics. Crowds need to become younger, more diverse in both color and gender, and cost — as the Chris Rock joke about luxury hotels has it — is the primary barrier to that.Beyond that, subsidizing travel to games — as happens in Germany — would reflect the importance of fans to the experience. So, too, would scheduling them in such a way to make it as easy as possible for fans to attend. No more Monday nights for Newcastle fans in London; no more games that finish after the last train home has left.But for an organization like the F.S.A. to suggest that the relationship between fans and television is inherently adversarial is a comprehensive misunderstanding of the dynamic between the two. It is one that it is far from alone in making, but it is one that serves to reinforce what is, in truth, an entirely false schism.With stadiums closed during the pandemic, television revenue has been paying a significant share of soccer’s bills.Credit…Pool photo by Julian FinneyThat is because we are all, deep down, armchair fans. If not all, then overwhelmingly: there may, it is true, be a few hundred die-hards attached to each team who travel to watch their side home and away and never watch another game of soccer.But for most of us, even match-going fans, television is the way we consume the sport, whether we are season-ticket holders who follow away games remotely or fans who, by pure accident of geography, happen to live thousands of miles from the stadium our team calls home.You might be an ardent supporter of a team mired in the lower leagues who regularly tunes in to watch whatever the big game of the weekend is. You might find yourself idly watching a distant Champions League game most weekday evenings in fall and spring. You might support one team, but take pleasure and hold interest in the sport as a whole. You might just like falling asleep in front of “Match of the Day.” Whatever their circumstances, television is the vector by which most fans get the bulk of their hit.And those fans — although the traditional hierarchy does not recognize it — deserve an advocate for their interests, too, because their interests are our interests. Indeed, their interests are soccer’s interests.Cameras are an intrusion until the moment they’re not.Credit…Pool photo by Fernando VergaraThis is the part that is always missed, whenever the sport bemoans the power of television: Television, that dirty word, does not actually mean television. It does not even, really, mean the broadcasters who produce the content and carry the games. It means, at its root, the fans who watch, the ones who buy the subscriptions and watch the games and make the advertising space valuable.Because, ultimately, television does not pay for soccer: We do. The broadcasters only pay a prince’s ransom for rights to leagues because they know that we will tune in. Their aim is to make a profit from their investment, whether direct — through the advertising sales and subscriptions — or indirect, as is the case in Britain, where both Sky and BT, the Premier League’s principal broadcasters, see soccer as a weapon in the war to dominate the country’s broadband market.Deep down, it is not television that keeps the circus rolling, it is us. We are the ones that pay the salaries, that provide the millions, that have turned the players into stars. (This very same argument, as it happens, can be applied to the issue of the need for more transparency in soccer.)The relationship between television and fans is not adversarial because, at heart, television is the fans. When soccer comes to consider how it will look in the post-pandemic age, it would do well to remember that: not to present those who go to games and those who do not as antagonists, but as two overlapping groups, with interests that dovetail more than they divide. Television should not be soccer’s dirty word. Television, at heart, means all of us.Political Football (Reprise)Just checking: Anyone hugging? No? Carry on then.Credit…Pool photo by Laurence GriffithsBritain’s hospitals are close to their breaking point. Intensive care departments are full, or close to it. Ambulances are lining up at the gates. More than a thousand people are dying a day. Case rates are soaring. The population, or at least that part of it that is not being compelled to go to work, is locked down once more.Underprivileged children are being sent individual potatoes and zip-lock bags full of cheese in lieu of school meals. The bleak realities of Brexit are starting to bite at the country’s ports and docks. And yet, listening to a substantial portion of the country’s public discourse this week, it is almost as if Britain’s most pressing issue is soccer players who hug after scoring a goal.We have been here before. Back in the spring, during the first wave of the pandemic, British lawmakers seized eagerly on the idea that the Premier League’s millionaire stars should all take a pay cut, as many of their clubs were requesting. Matt Hancock, the health secretary, used a news briefing to urge them all to “make a contribution,” even though it was not clear how them allowing the billionaire owners of their teams to save money would help the beleaguered National Health Service.This time, the central axis of the debate is a little different. The government is concerned, apparently, that players’ celebrating goals is “sending the wrong message” at a time when the country as a whole is forbidden by law from even seeing friends and family, much less hugging them. Lawmakers have written to the leagues to remind them of the need to follow restrictions. The leagues have, duly, written to their clubs. The news media has brimmed with fulmination.To be clear: there are protocols in place that players and their clubs must adhere to if soccer is to continue in the pandemic, rules that exist for their own protection and the protection of society as a whole. Players who are proved to have broken those protocols away from the field, if anything, have not been punished enough.But a ban on celebrating goals is not part of those protocols. The players have all been tested, often more than once a week. If they are on the field, we have to assume they are clear of the virus. If we cannot assume that, they should not be playing at all. They are no closer during celebrations than they are at corner kicks. If the former is not safe, then neither is the latter. There have been no cases of transmission between teams during games, or even among a single team: Where there have been outbreaks, they seem to have taken place at training facilities.Celebrating goals, in other words, is a nonissue. That it has been allowed to become a controversy, to take air away from all of those things that genuinely matter, is because lawmakers are once again in need of a convenient villain, and because sections of the news media cannot resist a chance to indulge the cheap thrill of click-inducing indignity. And both, in such circumstances, know exactly where to look.CorrespondenceThat’s George Best on the right there. Not to be confused with Pete Best.Credit…Victor Boynton/Associated PressFirst, to address a query expressed by a couple of readers: Yes, I am aware that George Best was not actually in the Beatles. No, I am not mixing him up with Pete Best. How could I? Pete Best never won a European Cup, for a start.The confusion arose from some poor phrasing in last week’s column (a lesson, here, on the importance of precision in language). I wrote that Best (George) was “regarded as the fifth Beatle,” though perhaps “presented as a fifth Beatle” would have been better.As the story goes, Best (the footballer) was nicknamed “O Quinto Beatle” by the Portuguese news media after starring in a game between Manchester United and Benfica in 1966. That was then picked up by the British newspapers, who referred to him as “El Beatle.” Presumably because the idea that Portuguese and Spanish were distinct languages was too much for them. Still, we all go wrong with the direct article sometimes.On the subject of the fading of the F.A. Cup, George McIntire wonders whether the most conclusive proof of its reduced status came from Arsenal. “What truly sealed its declining relevance was the futility of three wins in four years to save Arsène Wenger’s job,” he wrote. “There’s no Wenger Out campaign if he wins three leagues or Champions Leagues.” This is entirely right, and it’s interesting to note that — at certain clubs — domestic titles appear to be going the same way.And a depressing note to end on from Casey Lindstrom. “You wrote that fame and values are interlinked,” he wrote. “However, one does not need to look far [outside sports] to see those who are famous with all the values, ethics and integrity of robber barons.” This is also entirely right, and I do not have a convincing response to it. Though I find it hard to imagine that an athlete would achieve, say, Marcus Rashford’s level of prominence espousing less admirable views, and that is some solace.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    Bruno Fernandes, Manchester United and the Long Game

    Credit…Pool photo by Peter PowellOn SoccerBruno Fernandes and the Long GameThe Portuguese midfielder’s circuitous path to Manchester United stardom revealed inefficiencies in soccer’s vast scouting system, and how even a sure thing can almost slip through the cracks.Credit…Pool photo by Peter PowellSupported byContinue reading the main storyJan. 14, 2021MANCHESTER, England — What strikes Martelinho, whenever he watches Bruno Fernandes play, is how little he has changed. Fernandes might now be the best player on the in-form team in the world’s biggest league, but to Martelinho, he is not recognizably different from the teenager he coached in the youth teams of a struggling Portuguese club a decade ago.“The way he is now is the way he always was,” Martelinho said, casting his mind back to the two years he spent working with Fernandes in the academy at Boavista. “He always played with a lot of ambition, always on the front foot, never playing a pass backward, always trying to get into the penalty area. He needed more experience, but everything you see now was there then.”Such is the biography of most of Fernandes’s peers among the world’s finest players, of course. The transcendent gifts, obvious to all, that win a place on soccer’s fast track to greatness. The place at one of the world’s foremost talent factories. A season or two in the first team and then the vindication of a lucrative, headline-grabbing move to England or Spain.But while Fernandes’s starting point and destination fit that pattern, there is no straight line that can be drawn between the Fernandes that Martelinho knew and the one that he, and the rest of the world, sees today, the one that has blossomed — over the last year — into the driving force behind Manchester United’s resurgence.Instead, he has taken a more circuitous path, one that involved a season in Italy’s second division and several more in the less glamorous corners of that country’s top league, years that would leave him essentially “anonymous” — to use Martelinho’s word — in his homeland until he was in his mid-20s.Fernandes’s story could be seen as an uplifting tale of delayed gratification, hard work paying off, perseverance and dedication. Or it could be interpreted as a cautionary tale of a deep-rooted inefficiency in how soccer narrows its search for talent, a reminder that the margins between success and failure are fine, and that destiny can sometimes hinge on something as simple as a bus.Bruno Fernandes has scored 11 goals as a revitalized Manchester United has risen to the top of the Premier League.Credit…Pool photo by Clive BrunskillA Calculated GambleAs the chief scout for Novara — an Italian soccer team based in a small town west of Milan and, that season, struggling at the foot of Serie A — Cristiano Giaretta was used to unsolicited calls from agents offering players that might be of interest.When a Portuguese agent named Miguel Pinho got in touch with Giaretta in 2012 to recommend a teenage midfielder at Boavista, he might easily have disregarded it. His job involved tracking hundreds of players across much of Europe. He had never heard of Pinho, and he had never heard of Bruno Fernandes.Nor, really, should he have. Though Boavista is traditionally the second team in Portugal’s second city, Porto, financial turmoil had, at the time, left it struggling in the third division. Its youth system had a good reputation, but by common consensus the cream of the country’s endless supply of young soccer talent was corralled in the academies of its big three clubs: Benfica, Sporting and F.C. Porto.Fernandes had the chance to sign for at least one of them. Born in Maia, not far from Porto, he had been spotted by both Porto and Boavista while playing in a youth tournament. Both offered him a place in their academy. He chose Boavista, apparently, because it volunteered to send a minibus to take him to training, and neither of his parents could drive.It is a version of the story that his former coach Martelinho, for one, disputes. “I think he believed he could get into the first team more easily at Boavista,” he said. “I made the same choice when I was a player, and for the same reason. It is a smaller club, so it is easier to play.”With Fernandes and Marcus Rashford, among others, United heads to Liverpool on Sunday newly confident in its Premier League title chances.Credit…Pool photo by Owen HumphreysWhatever the reason, it may have been the decision that would define Fernandes’s path. Porto’s youth games attract scouts from across Europe, scouring the grass for Portugal’s next great prospect. Boavista’s do not.Had he signed with Porto, Fernandes might have followed the more familiar route to fame and fortune. He might at least have won the attention of the selectors for Portugal’s various age-group teams, another shop window for the next generation of young talent.At Boavista, he was effectively in the shadows. “He was never called up for the national teams,” Martelinho said. “I don’t know why, though there were lots of talented players in his generation.” The vast majority of them, of course, came with the added luster of playing for one of Portugal’s established giants.It was that oversight that gave Giaretta an opening, and took Fernandes down a different route. On the phone, Pinho seemed a “serious” sort of person, Giaretta said, so he did not dismiss the idea as nothing more than an agent’s pitch. He traveled to the north of Portugal to watch the 17-year-old Fernandes in an academy game.“My first impression was good, but not exceptional,” Giaretta said. “You could see the technical quality. His decision-making was better than average. He was light on his feet. But he wasn’t by far the best player on the pitch or anything.” Meeting Fernandes swayed him.“You could see, straightaway, that you were in front of a grown-up,” he said. Giaretta decided to recommend that Novara move to sign the teenager.Giaretta does not know whether Boavista did not hold out much hope for Fernandes’s development, or whether the club was in such a weakened financial state that it simply could not afford to say no, but Novara eventually paid less than $50,000 to sign him. “Every transfer is a risk,” he said. “But yes, this was a calculated gamble. Even the loss of a few thousand euros would have been a blow for the club.”He had decided to spend it on Fernandes, an unheralded 17-year-old, one that nobody else seemed to value especially highly, from a club in Portugal’s third division, one that nobody seemed to bother to watch. Eight years later, Fernandes would cost Manchester United $97 million.Udinese was the second of three stops during Fernandes’s successful, if unsatisfying, foray to Italy. He returned to Portugal in 2017.Credit…Marco Bertorello/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesTwo and a half years at Sporting revived Fernandes, and reset his price. A year ago, Manchester United paid 80 million euros (about $97 million) for him.Credit…Filipe Amorim/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe Lessons of the Long Way AroundFrancesco Guidolin was intrigued. As coach of Udinese, he was used to being presented with talented young players drawn from across the world, promising, polyglot teenagers plucked from relative obscurity by the club’s unrivaled network of scouts. It was rare, though, to find one of them picked up so close to home.Fernandes’s stay at Novara had been brief: only a year, in fact, in which he won a place in the club’s first team, scored four times in 23 games, earned the nickname — the Maradona of Novara — before he was sold, at a vast profit, to Udinese in Serie A. Giaretta was central to that, too; he left Novara for Udinese in 2013, and recommended Fernandes to his new employer.Guidolin had not seen much of Fernandes at Novara. When Fernandes arrived at Udinese, Guidolin was “curious” to see what this teenager with the unusual career path was like. “We went into training camp before the season,” Guidolin said. “Playing in Serie B and playing in Serie A are different things, but straightaway you could see that he was ready.”Indeed, Guidolin felt that, perhaps, Fernandes’s early exposure to senior soccer — even at a lower level — had been in his interest. “A year in Serie B is a more complete experience than arriving straight from the youth system,” he said of players who move to Italy. “You could see that he had more certainty, took more responsibility, than most players his age.”Looking at his trajectory since, it is possible to wonder if, perhaps, taking the long way around has worked in Fernandes’s favor. What stands out now to all of those who worked with him in his early days is his willingness to lead: to carry a team, even one as heavy as Manchester United, on his back.Perhaps he learned that in those years he spent among the game’s lesser lights: one at Novara, three at Udinese, one at Sampdoria. By the summer of 2017, when he returned to Portugal — as the second-most-expensive signing in Sporting’s history — he had still not received a call-up to Portugal’s national team (though he had captained its under-21 side). His arrival was not heralded as a coup. “Most of the big teams had not seen much of him,” Martelinho said.And yet, within just a few months, it was obvious what Portugal had been missing. “The Portuguese league is not as strong as England, Spain or Germany,” Martelinho said. “But it is maybe the fifth- or sixth-best league in Europe. It is not easy. Bruno made it look easy.”His impact in England has been no less swift. It is not yet 12 full months since he arrived at Old Trafford, yet he has already been voted into one Premier League team of the season, and, with his team emerging as contenders to end a seven-year wait for a championship, he would rank among the leading candidates to win this campaign’s player of the year award.And yet if his rise seems rapid, it is anything but. Fernandes has had to wait for this moment. Not through any fault of his own, but through a flaw in soccer’s structure, through its inability to look for talent in unexpected places. This was the player he always was, and always could be. It just took the game a while to notice, and all because he needed to take a bus, all those years ago.“The way he is now,” a former coach of Fernandes says, “is the way he always was.”Credit…Pool photo by Peter PowellAdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    Urban Meyer to Make N.F.L. Jump With Jacksonville Jaguars

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUrban Meyer to Make N.F.L. Jump With Jacksonville JaguarsMeyer coached Florida and Ohio State to national championships before retiring in 2018. He agreed to take over the Jaguars, who are expected to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence first over all.Urban Meyer has not coached since retiring in 2018, citing health problems. That year an investigation revealed he had protected a longtime assistant with a history of domestic abuse.Credit…Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesVictor Mather, Ken Belson and Jan. 14, 2021Updated 7:30 p.m. ETUrban Meyer, the former Ohio State and Florida head coach who retired in 2018, will return to the sidelines as the coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, his first N.F.L. job.“Urban Meyer is who we want and need, a leader, winner and champion who demands excellence and produces results,” Shad Khan, the team’s owner, said in a statement. “While Urban already enjoys a legacy in the game of football that few will ever match, his passion for the opportunity in front of him here in Jacksonville is powerful and unmistakable.”Meyer, 56, was a spectacularly successful and highly paid collegiate coach, winning national titles with Florida in 2006 and 2008 and Ohio State in 2014. He previously had successful stints at Bowling Green and Utah.In 2018, Meyer retired from the Ohio State job, citing health concerns, including headaches related to a congenital arachnoid cyst.Meyer had been suspended for three games earlier that year after an investigation revealed he had protected a longtime assistant, Zach Smith, with a history of domestic abuse. One trustee of the university said the punishment was too lenient.Meyer defended his actions and moved to another job in Ohio State’s athletic department.“I believe I will not coach again,” he said at the time.With Thursday’s announcement, Meyer is set to take over a Jaguars team that won its first game of the 2020 season against the Indianapolis Colts, then lost the following 15 games. When the season ended, Khan dismissed head coach Doug Marrone, who had taken the team to the A.F.C. championship game in 2017, but was 12-36 since.The Jaguars’ abysmal record will give them the top pick in this year’s draft, a selection they are likely to use on quarterback Trevor Lawrence of Clemson. That could quickly bring an end to the starting job of Gardner Minshew, the colorful but erratically performing starter for most of the last two seasons.Meyer already has a big following in Jacksonville, where many college football fans root for the Florida Gators, who play in Gainesville, just over an hour’s drive away. Meyer is the seventh coach of the Jaguars, who played their first N.F.L. game in 1995. The team has made the postseason only once since 2007.Few coaches have enjoyed greater dominance over the college game, where Meyer was 187-32 over 17 years as a head coach and won national championships at Florida and Ohio State with his spread offenses that included quarterback Tim Tebow, the winner of the 2007 Heisman Trophy, and Aaron Hernandez, the star tight end whose pro career ended after he was accused of murder. At Utah, where Meyer was 22-2 in two seasons, he coached Alex Smith, the top pick in the 2005 N.F.L. draft who now plays for the Washington Football Team.But health troubles publicly trailed Meyer in the last decade of his career in the college ranks. In 2009, he announced that he would resign as Florida’s coach, only to reverse his decision a day later. At the time, he suggested “self-destructive” work habits were having a detrimental effect on his health. After a leave of absence, he went 8-5 the next season and exited Florida, saying it was “what’s best for the University of Florida, my players and myself and my family.”He was absent from the sideline for just one season before Ohio State hired him and set a proud program toward another stirring run, including a championship in the inaugural season of the College Football Playoff era.It was at Ohio State, though, that Meyer’s career took its greatest scar. The university suspended Meyer for several games in 2018 after he failed to properly report domestic abuse allegations against an assistant coach and misled reporters about his knowledge of the assistant’s history. When Meyer retired from coaching at the university later that year, he again cited his health.Still, Meyer remained a deeply appealing prospective coach. He was linked to openings, or potential vacancies, at the University of Southern California and the University of Texas, reportedly resisting the latter in recent months because of his health.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    Can’t Measure Heart? N.F.L. Teams Are Trying

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyCan’t Measure Heart? N.F.L. Teams Are TryingChampionships can be won and lost when players’ competitive fire kicks in and they exhibit faster-than-normal speed to make a crucial catch or chase down a tackle.Cardinals safety Budda Baker’s interception looked to be a pick-six until Seahawks receiver D.K. Metcalf chased him down for a tackle in October.Credit…Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesJan. 14, 2021Updated 6:41 p.m. ETSometimes it is a primal skill that matters most in football.“If you’re chasing a guy, can you catch him?” said Bill Belichick, the six-time Super Bowl champion coach of the New England Patriots. “Or if a guy is chasing you, can you outrun him?”In the N.F.L., scouts, talent evaluators, coaches and general managers spend tens of thousands of hours every year in a quest to identify which players are best at these fundamental skills. Despite all the complexities and intricate strategy of a modern pro football season, some of the most imperative evaluations still border on the rudimentary.The consensus, however, is that it’s not simply a measure of how fast someone runs, even if the 40-yard dash metric is ubiquitous and venerated. Sophisticated technologies can now quantify a dozen variables of a sprinting stride and decoding the clues within that data is a budding cottage industry, but there may also be more of a schoolyard ethos to the assessment.“It’s a little bit more in the heart than the stopwatch,” Belichick said last year on the topic, which is one of his favorites. “There’s competitive speed, or game speed.”It is not a trivial consideration: Championships can be won and lost on such plays. In addition to the countless examples of a wide receiver pulling away from a defender to get open for a deep touchdown pass or a running back bursting untouched through a team’s last line of defense, there are conspicuous illustrations of how a more self-evident, elementary skill can be the turning point of a pivotal game.On Thanksgiving Day this season, Terry McLaurin, a wide receiver for the Washington Football Team, was roughly 10 yards behind Dallas linebacker Jaylon Smith when Smith intercepted a pass at the Washington 47-yard line and had a clear path to the end zone for a game-tying score late in the third quarter. McLaurin dashed after Smith, and despite having to evade potential Dallas blockers stationed in his way, tackled Smith at the 4-yard line.The Washington defense then made a goal-line stand that forced Dallas to settle for a field goal. Demoralized, Dallas did not score again as an invigorated Washington rallied for three touchdowns and an easy victory. At season’s end, Washington was in the playoffs as the N.F.C. East champions because it had one more victory than Dallas and the Giants.“It was a huge play, just what we needed,” Washington Coach Ron Rivera said of McLaurin’s effort afterward.The aptitude for superior in-game speed may seem obvious to the naked eye, but in fact trying to figure out which college draft picks or potential free agents possess it in a way that will regularly show up on the field can be tricky. Nonetheless, it is a foremost aim of every N.F.L. team.“It’s talked about all the time because it is a complex assessment,” said Scott Pioli, the former general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs who was also a top executive with the Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots and Jets. “We can all see what a player’s pure speed is when he’s running in a straight line in shorts at the league’s combine. But football is not a straight line game, it’s a lot of stopping and starting, it’s change of direction, it’s instincts and angles.”Pioli said Patriots scouts were perpetually asked to not only report a player’s timed speed, but his “playing speed,” as well.“The scout’s report might have a player running 4.5 in the 40, but the scout adds that he’s played faster than that,” said Pioli, who is now an analyst for CBS Sports HQ. “Or slower when he has pads on because football isn’t played in shorts.”There are outliers, and they can get lost, or found, in hours of film study conducted by pro personnel directors. Coming out of college, former Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis was considered fast but was not necessarily projected to become the game-changing presence he turned out to be. Three linebackers and eight other defensive players were taken ahead of him in the 1996 draft. Wes Welker, a 5-foot-9 wide receiver who played for five N.F.L. teams and ranks 22nd in career receptions with 903, was not even invited to the N.F.L. scouting combine and went undrafted in 2004.“Lewis played much faster because of his intelligence, which helped him to read opponents’ tendencies,” Pioli said. “Undersized receivers like Welker, they also play faster because of their quickness. You have to look for all those attributes.”Teams are increasingly using tech help to recognize and verify those unique qualities. But it doesn’t always work as intended.With radio-frequency identification chips (RFID) placed in every N.F.L. player’s shoulder pads transmitting streams of data, pro personnel directors now have a trove of data at their disposal. The same information is also logged during practice sessions. Much of the same information is collected on players before the college draft. After Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman took wide receiver Jalen Reagor with the team’s first-round choice in 2020 he talked about Reagor’s RFID numbers and on-the-field speed.“You get the GPS numbers on these guys, so you can see how they’re running in games and their speed in games,” Roseman said of Reagor, who also ran a swift 4.47 second 40-yard dash. “He’s running at a really high level.”Looking to add speed to their offense, the Eagles drafted receiver Jalen Reagor, above, whose speed was tracked via radio frequency identification chips (RFID). Credit…Michael Conroy/Associated PressReagor was viewed as a disappointment this season for the Eagles, especially for such a high draft pick. He had 31 receptions this season for 396 yards and a touchdown, although he did miss five games to injury. Exacerbating the appraisal of Reagor was the 1,400 receiving yards (a rookie record) and 88 catches accumulated by Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, who was selected 22nd overall in last spring’s draft, one spot after Reagor.Last week, Roseman conceded there were lengthy deliberations about draft-eligible receivers like Jefferson and Reagor. “Definitely a lot of opinions on this draft class and this receiver class for sure,” he said.While not specifically speaking about Philadelphia’s decision-making, Pioli said that leaguewide there were obstacles internally that impede teams from making the most fruitful judgments. Notably, a front office schism can stand in the way of a cooperative marriage between staffers who compile analytical data and coaches and other evaluators who are more likely to trust their eyes after in-person tryouts and hours of traditional film study.“This comes in when one of those two worlds, whether it’s the football people or the analytics people, don’t have enough respect for the other,” Pioli said. “Egos get in the way of arriving at the best answer.”Steve Gera, an ex-coach, scout and executive with the San Diego Chargers and Cleveland Browns, founded a company, BreakAway Data, with David Anderson, a former N.F.L. wide receiver, in part to help facilitate the divide between a team’s analytic resources and parts of the organization that came up through more customary football channels.Using wearable sensors, Gera and Anderson have developed isolated, football-specific tests for athletes that they have tried out on college campuses and in the X.F.L. “Then, we processed that data essentially into coach-speak,” Gera said, explaining that the information must be presented in a way that matches the nuanced level that coaches and scouts view the game. “That gets you closer to bridging the gap between stopwatch speed and competitive speed.”Steve Gera was a special assistant to Browns Coach Rob Chudzinski in 2013 before starting a company that helps analyze competitive speed for N.F.L. teams.Credit…Tony Dejak/Associated PressGera, who has worked with franchises in multiple sports, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, added: “You can tell a football coach that one of his players moves at 22 miles an hour, but what really matters is how much space did the player create or take away on the field, right? That’s the name of the game.”Seven years ago, Belichick, who has been effusive on the game speed versus timed speed subject for more than a decade, invited an undrafted free agent cornerback to a tryout at the Patriots practice complex after the 2014 draft despite the player’s significantly inferior 4.62 second, 40-yard dash time. In the audition, Belichick observed an innate quickness on the field and immediately offered a contract.Later that season, the player, Malcolm Butler, closed the space between him and Seattle wide receiver Ricardo Lockette to make a Super Bowl-clinching interception.Said Seahawks Coach Pete Carroll of Butler that night: “The guy makes a great play that nobody would ever think he could do.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    Will N.F.L. Teams Learn the Right Lessons From Josh Allen’s Success?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWill N.F.L. Teams Learn the Right Lessons From Josh Allen’s Success?The Buffalo Bills quarterback made an astonishing developmental jump in his third season that could provide a valuable map — or an untenable comparison — for teams trying to replicate it.Credit…Libby March for The New York TimesJan. 14, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ETThe not-so-sudden success of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will spawn many imitators around the N.F.L. But like plagiarists copy-and-pasting their term papers from Wikipedia, the league’s copycats are likely to get the facts right but miss the main idea.Allen’s ascendence is one of the biggest story lines of the 2020 season. He was practically a caricature of a gifted but bumbling rookie as the Buffalo Bills’ first-round draft pick in 2018 (seventh over all). He improved modestly last season, though he still looked too often like a team mascot on inline skates firing a T-shirt cannon.But he blossomed this season, throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns, running for eight touchdowns, earning a Pro Bowl berth and leading the Bills to a 13-3 regular-season record and last week’s playoff victory over the Indianapolis Colts, the franchise’s first playoff win since the 1995 season.Gradual, broad-based development like Allen’s is surprisingly rare: Most young quarterbacks either exhibit immediate potential (like Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs or Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, whom the Bills face on Saturday night in a divisional round playoff game) or stagger through long seasons of few ups and many downs (like any Jets quarterback of the last 44 years). So N.F.L. coaches and general managers are sure to try to swipe whatever alchemist’s stone transformed Allen from a turnover dispensary into a Most Valuable Player Award candidate.Unfortunately, the league is likely to learn all the wrong lessons from Allen’s success, starting when teams search for the “next Josh Allen” in future drafts.Many N.F.L. decision makers covet height and arm strength to a fault when evaluating young passers. Some would draft a quarterback whose passes land in the coaches’ parking lot as long as he is over 6-foot-5 and cracks a few windshields. A few would draft a baseball pitching machine on stilts if it somehow looked them in the eye and offered a firm handshake.Allen’s college statistics were miserable, and his game film looked like the blooper reel at the end of a Jackie Chan movie. But he is 6-foot-5 and indeed rifle-armed, even by N.F.L. standards.Allen’s success will not only give scouts and coaches further leeway to indulge their arm fetish, but the many negatives on his college scouting report will create an unfalsifiable argument in favor of every prospect who throws crisp 40-yard spirals to receivers 30 yards away. Sure, Lanky McRocketarm threw three interceptions and bounced a screen pass off a defender’s face mask against Directional State on Saturday. But that means he could be the next Josh Allen!The Bills’ offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, left, has become a hot head coach candidate as teams seek someone capable of slow-cooking their incoming or in-house quarterback prospects. Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressFlailing prospects already in the league may immediately benefit from Allen’s prolonged larval stage. Don’t give up on the Giants’ 6-foot-5 quarterback, Daniel Jones, just yet, for example: He merely needs to drastically reduce his turnovers, produce more big plays, become more consistent, avoid nagging injuries and learn not to tumble over his own feet 10 yards short of the goal line to enjoy a breakthrough just like Allen!A better-late-than-never Allen-like leap by Jones would also vindicate General Manager Dave Gettleman’s decision to draft him. The most popular N.F.L. trends are the ones that provide cover for mistakes, because the league’s most powerful motivator is not the desire to win, but the desire to remain employed.Coaches will also benefit if Allen inspires a renaissance of delayed gratification. Any team-building model with two consequence-free years baked into it will be eagerly adopted by the league’s dedicated self-preservation specialists. It will be a refreshing change of pace from justifying losing seasons as a result of a much-needed “culture change.”Some teams will try to copy the Bills’ formula more directly. The team’s offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, has become a hot job candidate as teams seek a head coach capable of slow-cooking their incoming or in-house quarterback prospects. By developing Allen over three seasons, Daboll appears to have cut the line in front of the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, who helped Mahomes become league M.V.P. in the quarterback’s second season.Meanwhile, Anthony Lynn was fired as the Los Angeles Chargers’ head coach despite coaxing a 31-touchdown rookie season out of Justin Herbert. The N.F.L. never lets consistent logic (or anything else) get in the way of its hiring preferences.Ultimately, Allen’s emergence is likely to encourage coaches and executives to do all the things they already like to do, only more unapologetically. Among others, they like to overvalue their favorite flavor of prospect; disguise risk-averse procrastination as prudent empire-building; promote from within the buddy system; and congratulate themselves when a plan that failed a dozen times finally succeeds once.Some nuance is inevitably lost whenever N.F.L. teams attempt to copy one another’s success. Allen was truly a unique prospect, and the Bills invested heavily in his supporting cast (especially trading picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts to land Allen a No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs). Signs of Allen’s growth were unmistakable in the second half of last season.The Bills’ 2020 success is a testament to the talent and hard work of Allen, his teammates and coaches, but also to a great deal of patience, a little innovation and inspiration and a dollop of good luck. It’s not the result of a secret recipe, but of a long process that most N.F.L. decision makers pay homage to but few are capable of executing.In fact, Allen’s success is a result of so many factors that it essentially can’t be repeated. But that won’t stop the rest of the N.F.L. from trying.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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    NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Divisional Round

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Divisional RoundThe A.F.C.’s young quarterbacks fight for a trip to the conference championship, while veterans, and defense, lead the way in the N.F.C.Jalen Ramsey of the Los Angeles Rams, foreground, largely nullified D.K. Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks, lying on field, in three meetings this season. Can he neutralize Green Bay receiver Davante Adams?Credit…Steph Chambers/Getty ImagesJan. 14, 2021, 12:01 a.m. ETFew thought the Los Angeles Rams or the Cleveland Browns would get this far, and the Buffalo Bills had far more success than could be expected. The Baltimore Ravens stormed back into contention, a pair of 40-something quarterbacks will face off in New Orleans and everyone is (or should be) scared of the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The wheat has been separated from the chaff, and the divisional round will narrow things further.Here is a look at this weekend’s N.F.L. playoff matchups. Unlike in the regular season, the picks are not made against the point spread.Saturday’s GamesLos Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers, 4:35 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -6.5 | Total: 45.5Much will be made about the relationship between Coach Sean McVay of the Rams and Coach Matt LaFleur of the Packers. LaFleur served as McVay’s offensive coordinator in 2017, and they were offensive assistants together on Washington’s staff from 2010 to 2013. They are key figures in an offensive revolution, but if you are hoping for a high-scoring affair, you might want to try another game.Green Bay led the N.F.L. in scoring thanks to a turn-the-clock-way-back season from Aaron Rodgers that has him in contention for the Most Valuable Player Award. His success came with help from the running of Aaron Jones (1,459 yards from scrimmage), the vertical threat of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (20.9 yards per reception) and the all-around brilliance of Davante Adams (115 catches, 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns).But if there is a team designed to slow the Packers, it is the Rams.Few defenses can match the relentless pass rush of Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, and while Rodgers does not fluster easily, the few times he has shown weakness in recent years have come when he is under consistent pressure. Complicating matters is the absence of the star left tackle David Bakhtiari, whose season ended with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Week 16.Jones could be neutralized by a Rams front seven that ranked third in the N.F.L. in run defense — yes, Donald leads the way there too. Green Bay relying on the home run threat of Valdes-Scantling is risky thanks to his propensity for dropped passes.That leaves the most intriguing matchup as the one between the shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Adams, who can make a case as the N.F.L.’s best, and most underappreciated, current receiver.“You know me, I’d like to go against anybody and have good-on-good as much as possible,” Adams said this week when asked about Ramsey.On neutral ground, and with equal health, this could add up to a Rams upset. But Green Bay fought hard to gain the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that hard work could be the team’s saving grace. It is expected to be around 30 degrees at kickoff in Green Bay, Wis., and Rams quarterback Jared Goff is only a few weeks removed from surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand. He appeared to struggle with his grip last week, and the cold, combined with a good-enough Packers defense, should give Green Bay all the edge it needs. Pick: PackersLooking for his first playoff win against the Titans, Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens took care of things himself. He led his team with 136 yards rushing last week.Credit…Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Bills -2.5 | Total: 50The Ravens have not lost a game since Dec. 2. The Bills have not lost one since Nov. 15. Both have weatherproof offenses and defenses capable of game-changing plays. And both overcame some psychological weight in the wild-card round — Buffalo got its first postseason victory since the 1995 season; Lamar Jackson of the Ravens won a playoff game for the first time.There are myriad reasons to pull for both teams — and a persistent belief that either team advancing is just signing up to lose to Kansas City in the next round — but it is hard to believe that Buffalo, even at home, can slow Baltimore’s juggernaut running game.When the Ravens hit the “reset button” after a midseason lull, the team focused nearly all of its attack on the running of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. That led to Baltimore’s rushing for 230 or more yards in four of its final five games of the regular season, including a ludicrous 404 — the fifth-most rushing yards in N.F.L. history — in a Week 17 win over Cincinnati. That kept up in the wild-card round, with the Ravens running for 236 yards.Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense this season, but that ranking would have been worse had teams not been forced to pass to keep up with the Bills’ electric offense. That shows up in the fact that Buffalo ranked among the N.F.L.’s six worst run defenses in yards per carry (4.6) and rushing touchdowns allowed (21).The Bills’ defense has several players capable of serious disruption, but much of that comes in the secondary. On a chilly day in Orchard Park, N.Y., the Ravens could focus on running the ball, and it is hard to see the Bills being able to stop them. Buffalo’s offense can’t be counted out, even against a solid Ravens defense, but Baltimore should control the clock and the game. Pick: RavensSunday’s GamesM.J. Stewart of the Cleveland Browns made an incredible interception of a Ben Roethlisberger pass last week. It was Cleveland’s second takeaway in the first five minutes of the game.Credit…Joe Sargent/Getty ImagesCleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -10 | Total: 56.5For all intents and purposes, Cleveland advanced to the divisional round after slightly more than 13 minutes of its wild-card game against Pittsburgh. A playoff game has rarely gone sideways so quickly, with the Browns’ defense forcing three quick turnovers and their offense handling its end of the deal by running up a 28-0 lead with 1 minute 56 seconds left in the first quarter.The Browns’ 48-37 win should not be written off as a fluke — Cleveland has its best team since Coach Bill Belichick was roaming the sideline in the mid-1990s — but taking advantage of Ben Roethlisberger’s mistakes is a lot different from forcing Patrick Mahomes into some, so expecting a repeat of that lightning-fast start would be foolish.Kansas City might get running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire back from a scary-looking hip injury in Week 15. Even if they don’t, a combination of Le’Veon Bell and Damien Williams provides enough balance that Mahomes should be able to shred Cleveland’s secondary with deep passes to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and throws underneath to tight end Travis Kelce.Cleveland’s offense has occasionally shown some burst — last week’s effort was the franchise’s highest-scoring postseason game since the 1954 N.F.L. championship — and the Browns can chew up the clock thanks to the superb combination of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But even Baker Mayfield’s most ardent believers should struggle to take him in a head-to-head matchup with Mahomes. The Browns aren’t pushovers, but they probably cannot do much to stand in Kansas City’s way. Pick: ChiefsTampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 6:40 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -3 | Total: 52The oldest starting quarterback left in the A.F.C. playoffs is Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t turn 26 until April. Three of the four starters in that conference were first-round picks in the 2018 draft. By the time any of the four had started a game in the N.F.L., Tom Brady had already won five Super Bowls and Drew Brees was closing in on Dan Marino’s record for career passing yards.The young players have largely reimagined the quarterback position, using their mobility to empower their passing while contributing to a leaguewide scoring explosion. Yet Brady and Brees, museum-quality examples of a forgotten age of pocket passers, carry on, leading serious Super Bowl contenders in the second week of the playoffs.In truth, this game shouldn’t be defined just by its famous quarterbacks. Brees’s Saints had plenty of offense this season — running back Alvin Kamara led the N.F.L. with 21 total touchdowns — but relied just as much on the defense, which Dennis Allen, the team’s defensive coordinator, built into a powerhouse.Tampa Bay has a talented young defense as well — the support on that side of the ball undoubtedly played a role in Brady’s decision to sign there — and in recent weeks, the Buccaneers have started to truly click on offense. The team’s wealth of receiving options — wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown; tight end Rob Gronkowski — powered Brady to his best statistical season since at least 2017 and one of the best of his career.The regular-season meetings between these teams were laughable. The Saints won both, with a combined score of 72-26. And they are playing at home, which plays a role for them even if the impact is lessened by the tiny crowds that the team is allowed to host. The Buccaneers are a good enough team that they should be respected — in many ways, this feels like a tossup — but the Saints are rightly narrow favorites in what could be the most competitive game of the weekend. Pick: Saints.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More