N.F.L. Week 14 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

It is an embarrassment of riches this week. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. The 49ers and the Saints battle with a share of the best record in the N.F.L. on the line. The Seahawks try to stay on top in the N.F.C. West against a Rams team hanging on for dear life. And Lamar Jackson of the Ravens continues an endless series of tough tests for his new-look offense, facing off against the Bills in Buffalo. When the dust settles, the N.F.L.’s playoff picture could be considerably clearer.

Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 14, with all picks made against the point spread.

Last week’s record: 7-9

Overall record: 101-89-2

Sunday’s Best Games

Chiefs at Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Patriots -3 | Total: 48.5

Patrick Mahomes is 0-2 in his career against the Patriots. Anyone who watched those games, however, knows that Kansas City’s young quarterback was on the verge of cracking New England’s defense in both games.

The scripts in both games last season were similar. In Week 6, the Chiefs were behind, 24-9, at halftime, only for Mahomes to rally them to a 40-40 tie with just over three minutes remaining. Tom Brady had the last laugh as he calmly chewed up clock while driving the Patriots to a game-winning field goal.

In the A.F.C. championship game, it was even more gutting. The Chiefs were down, 14-0, at halftime, only for Mahomes to rally them all the way back, with Harrison Butker tying the score, 31-31, with a field goal as time expired in regulation.

In overtime, Mahomes had to stand on the sideline as Brady took his team 75 yards on 13 plays, scoring a sudden-death game-winner on Rex Burkhead’s 2-yard touchdown run. Kansas City’s phenom won the N.F.L.’s Most Valuable Player Award 13 days later, but did not get to run a play in the extra period of that game.

New England (10-2) and Kansas City (8-4) are in far different positions this season, regardless of the standings. Their records cover up fatal flaws: the Patriots’ offensive shortcomings and the Chiefs’ inconsistency. The Chiefs, however, have been trending upward, while the Patriots seem to be unraveling at an inopportune time.

Life is never easy for an opposing quarterback in Foxborough, Mass., and New England’s defense is certainly up for a big challenge. But after Mahomes knocked loudly on the Patriots’ door twice last season, the time seems ripe for him to finally kick the thing down. Pick: Chiefs +3

49ers at Saints, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Saints -2.5 | Total: 44.5

To say the 49ers (10-2) have had a strong pass defense this season would be an understatement. They have allowed one quarterback (Andy Dalton in Week 2) to throw for more than 300 yards, two others (Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray) to throw for 200 or more and held every other opposing quarterback to fewer than 200. The team’s average of just 134.2 passing yards allowed a game would be the lowest mark by a team in a full season since the 1976 Buccaneers held opponents to 129.8.

That pass defense will be tested on the road against the Saints (10-2), especially with some ambiguity as to the health of cornerback Richard Sherman (knee) and the edge rusher Dee Ford (hamstring). If both can play, the 49ers should be able to force New Orleans into a run-heavy approach that is not ideal with a change-of-pace-style runner like Alvin Kamara. With San Francisco’s offense presumably able to score with ease against a Saints defense that yields an average of 20.7 points to opponents, this game could provide a nice rebound for a team licking its wounds from last week’s loss to Baltimore. Pick: 49ers +2.5

Ravens at Bills, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Ravens -5.5 | Total: 47.5

Are there any doubters left? The Ravens (10-2) hosted red-hot San Francisco last week, and not only did Lamar Jackson find room to run, but Baltimore’s defense snuffed out a 49ers offense that had been playing well. The win put the Ravens in the top spot in the A.F.C. playoff bracket (by way of a tiebreaker over New England), and it lent loads of credence to an offense that can no longer be written off as a gimmick.

The Bills (9-3) are in a dream season of their own, but they may struggle with the Ravens’ run-heavy attack. Buffalo is strongest in its secondary, and rushes the quarterback well, but the defense is fairly weak at linebacker. That leaves the team prone to plays in which Jackson finds yardage even when everything seems to have collapsed. Buffalo’s offense just might put up some points of its own, but even a game between two of the A.F.C.’s four best teams seems like a mismatch in Baltimore’s favor. Pick: Ravens -5.5

Seahawks at Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBC

Line: Even | Total: 47

What a difference a week makes. Coming off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Ravens, the Rams entered Week 13 with their playoff hopes fading. Then wide receivers Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks returned to the lineup against Arizona and suddenly the Rams looked like … the Rams. A 34-7 win ensued, with Los Angeles having apparently cured itself of all that ailed it on offense and defense.

The team’s image was rehabilitated to the extent that Las Vegas rated the Rams (7-5) an even match for the Seahawks (10-2), who quietly took over as the division leaders in the N.F.C. West last week, while tying the 49ers, Patriots, Ravens and Saints for the best record in the N.F.L. A full-strength Rams team would be fun to watch down the stretch, but Seattle has proved itself to be a road warrior this season, and Los Angeles has not done nearly enough to be anything but an underdog in this game. Pick: Seahawks

How Important Are This Week’s Games?

Sunday’s Other Games

Lions at Vikings, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Vikings -13 | Total: 43.5

Stefon Diggs became a household name for a 61-yard touchdown reception in the playoffs two seasons ago, but last year the Vikings inexplicably turned him into a possession receiver. Despite his game-changing speed, Diggs caught 102 passes for just 1,021 yards, giving him the worst yards per reception of any wide receiver in the N.F.L. with 60 or more catches. The team clearly decided something was wrong, because Diggs has turned that statistic on its head this year, averaging a whopping 18.1 yards per catch, which ranks fourth in the N.F.L. That average could increase against the Lions (3-8-1), who have already allowed 53 passing plays of 20 or more yards this season, which is the third most of any team.

This game represents a large swing for the Vikings (8-4): A win would give them an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Upshot, while a loss would drop their chances to 53 percent. A 13-point spread would usually be absurd, but Minnesota had a 12-point road win over the Lions in Week 7, and that was with Matthew Stafford, rather than David Blough, at quarterback for Detroit. The possibility exists that the Vikings will not extend an expected blowout, but there is no reason to expect they will show mercy. Pick: Vikings -13

Broncos at Texans, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Texans -9 | Total: 41.5

After watching the Texans (8-4) score with ease against New England’s stifling defense last week, it was reasonable for oddsmakers to get awfully excited about their chances against the Broncos (4-8) this week, especially with the game in Houston. But while there is no real concern about an upset in a game in which Deshaun Watson, one of the N.F.L.’s best quarterbacks, is up against Drew Lock, its least experienced starter at the position, there should be some healthy skepticism about a spread of 9 points. After all, Houston has won by 9 or more just twice this season, while Denver has lost by that many just three times. Pick: Broncos +9

Titans at Raiders, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Titans -2.5 | Total: 46.5

The star of Tennessee’s offense is Derrick Henry, a terrific running back who can be absolutely devastating when he’s healthy. But the Titans (7-5) have also received unbelievable production and efficiency from Ryan Tannehill since he became their starting quarterback. During the Titans’ current three-game win streak, Tennessee has outscored its opponents by 108-69, with Henry rushing for 496 yards and Tannehill throwing for six touchdowns. The surge has the Titans trailing Pittsburgh in the wild-card race by just a tiebreaker. A road game against the struggling Raiders (6-6), who have scored a total of 29 points over the last three weeks, does not seem likely to interrupt that forward momentum. Pick: Titans -2.5

Colts at Buccaneers, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Buccaneers -2.5 | Total: 47

The 31-17 final score made it seem as if the Colts (6-6) were manhandled by Tennessee last week, but 14 of the Titans’ points came in a span of three minutes of the fourth quarter, thanks to a pair of huge defensive plays. Beyond that, Indianapolis actually matched its division rival in everything but the run game, where Jonathan Williams’s ineffectiveness got him benched. If Indianapolis thought running against Tennessee was hard, it is in for a rude awakening against the Buccaneers (5-7), who allow just 76.2 yards a game on the ground and have allowed just one opposing running back (Chris Carson of the Seahawks) to break 100 yards against them this season. Pick: Buccaneers -2.5

Steelers at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m., CBS

Line: Steelers -2.5 | Total: 43

Pittsburgh kept itself in the playoff picture last week with a win over Cleveland, but the Steelers (7-5) can’t take a week off if they want to make the playoffs, especially with Tennessee pushing hard for the A.F.C.’s second wild-card spot. Going on the road doesn’t help, but the Cardinals (3-8-1) are coming off a shellacking by the Rams in which quarterback Kyler Murray looked more overmatched than he has at any point in his impressive rookie season.

Buoyed by the early-season trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh has a defense that may be the third best in football in overall balance and production, but its offense is so weak that assuming a win on the road is dangerous, even when you consider the disastrous effect a loss would have on the Steelers’ playoff chances. Pick: Cardinals +2.5

Bengals at Browns, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Browns -8.5 | Total: 40.5

At the time of quarterback Andy Dalton’s benching in October, the Bengals were 0-8, but Dalton was on the verge of two franchise records: He was tied for the career record in passing touchdowns, with 198, and seven completions short of the career record in that category. To make matters worse, Cincinnati chose to announce that the rookie Ryan Finley would replace Dalton on Dalton’s 32nd birthday.

The team went 0-3 with Finley starting before giving the ball back to the veteran. Dalton pushed the team to score its most points, 22, since Week 6 and nabbed both of those franchise passing records. Dalton’s return also helped end the team’s losing streak (which dated to last season) at 13 games. Beating the Browns (5-7) in Cleveland seems beyond Dalton’s reach, but keeping the game close is more realistic than it would have been if Finley were starting. Pick: Bengals +8.5

Panthers at Falcons, 1 p.m., Fox

Line: Falcons -2.5 | Total: 47.5

Chargers at Jaguars, 4:05 p.m., Fox

Line: Chargers -3 | Total: 42.5

Dolphins at Jets, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Jets -5.5 | Total: 45

Pride will be on the line, but little else will be in these three games, none of which have any playoff implications, as each team is given less than a 1 percent chance of reaching postseason play by The Upshot. The Panthers (5-7) have the best record of the bunch, yet they fired Coach Ron Rivera on Tuesday to get ahead of the feeding frenzy for coaching candidates after the season. While it’s surprising to see the Chargers (4-8) and the Jaguars (4-8) in this group, the final four games for each of these teams will be more about evaluating young players and protecting veterans than about playing competitive football. Picks: Falcons -2.5, Jaguars +3, Dolphins +5.5

Monday’s Matchup

Giants at Eagles, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Line: Eagles -9.5 | Total: 46

Daniel Jones is in a walking boot to protect his sore ankle and is expected to sit this game out, so Elisha Nelson Manning IV is expected to be back under center for the Giants (2-10). He brings with him two Super Bowl rings, 56,537 career passing yards and an 0-2 record as a starter this season. Beyond the chance to see a franchise icon in action, the switch to Manning shouldn’t make a huge difference for the Giants, who are enduring an eight-game losing streak. But with Philadelphia’s offense working through some issues, Manning might be able to make the Eagles (5-7) sweat just a little. Pick: Giants +9.5

Thursday’s Matchup

While acknowledging the potential for a third consecutive letdown from the Dallas offense, we picked Cowboys -3. They proved no match for the Bears, however, falling behind by 24-7 in the third quarter and ultimately losing, 31-24.

How Betting Lines Work

A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Ravens -5.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat the Bills by at least six points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.

All times are Eastern.