SPURS fans may be secretly hoping for Arsenal to BEAT Bayern Munich next week – to keep the fifth Champions League spot safety valve alive.
England had been favourite to claim one of the two extra spots in the competition following the Champions League quarter final first legs.
But Liverpool’s humiliating 0-3 home defeat by Atalanta, coupled with Leverkusen’s two late goals against West Ham, changed the equation.
It allowed Germany to push past England into second spot in the coefficient table.
And unless the Anfield side can pull off one of the great European comebacks or the Hammers turn around their tie at the London Stadium, it may require an Arsenal win in Bavaria to keep England’s hope of an extra place in the Champions League on track.
Tuesday’s draws for Arsenal and Manchester City against Bayern and Real Madrid respectively saw England nudge level with Germany in this season’s coefficient table and ahead when last season’s results were then taken into account as a tie-breaker.
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But while Aston Villa’s narrow 2-1 home win over Lille in the Conference League was a boost, the two Europa League games represented massive blows to England’s chances of earning one of the two extra spots for the best performing countries.
Every win, draw and round progression by a team adds to a country’s total, which is then divided by the number of clubs involved at the start of the competition.
But it means that any wins by German sides are worth more than those by the Prem teams.
That’s because the Bundesliga had only seven representatives across the three competitions at the start of the season, compared to the eight English sides.
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Ahead of the second leg ties next week, Germany has created space above England in the seasonal table – while Italy now looks certain to be confirmed as getting the first extra place.
But if Arsenal can win in the Allianz Arena, alongside a City victory over Madrid at the Etihad and Villa avoiding defeat in France, England would edge back in front and be in the box seat.
But a Bayern win and Leverkusen avoiding defeat – unless Liverpool do something incredible in Bergamo – would then require City to both beat Madrid next week and eliminate Munich in the semis before triumphing at Wembley in June.
And with Liverpool’s likely exit making Leverkusen front-runners to lift the Europa League, Villa would need to at least reach the Conference League Final for there to be any realistic chance of England leapfrogging Germany.
English teams in Europe
Quarter-final, first-leg results:
- Real Madrid 3 Man City 3 (Champions League)
- Arsenal 2 Bayern Munich 2 (Champions League)
- Liverpool 0 Atalanta 3 (Europa League)
- Bayer Leverkusen 2 West Ham 0 (Europa League)
- Aston Villa 2 Lille 1 (Europa Conference League)
Source: Soccer - thesun.co.uk