After Indian Wells and Miami, Intrigue Awaits at the Top of Tennis

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — It doesn’t take an expert in code cracking to figure out the pattern that has emerged in professional tennis in the past month as the tours descended on the United States for the winter-spring swing in California and Florida.

Over four weeks, and two of the most important tournaments other than the Grand Slam events, a small group at the top of the sport became a little more crowded, especially with some members injured (Iga Swiatek, Rafael Nadal) or sidelined because the United States still prohibits foreigners not vaccinated against Covid-19 from entering (Novak Djokovic).

Carlos Alcaraz, the 19-year-old Spanish marvel fast becoming the biggest draw in the sport, was already in the group. But make room once more for Daniil Medvedev. A magically idiosyncratic Russian who dropped out of the top tier last year, Medvedev won the Miami Open for the first time on Sunday, beating Jannik Sinner, 7-5, 6-3, after making the final at Indian Wells two weeks ago.

Elena Rybakina is now officially there, too. A fluid and powerful Kazakh, she nearly pulled off the so-called Sunshine Double, losing to the Czech veteran Petra Kvitova in the Miami final on Saturday after winning at Indian Wells.

Then there is Sinner, the smooth Italian who lost to Medvedev on Sunday and made the semis in Indian Wells and who solidified his position as the most reliable contemporary rival for an otherwise nearly unstoppable Alcaraz. Sinner matched Alcaraz bang for bang and beat him in their semifinal match Friday night to knot their head-to-head record at 3-3. Rybakina, by the way, has managed the same trick with Swiatek, becoming her Kryptonite in a way no one else has lately.

“Best start of the season I have ever had,” said Medvedev, who has won 24 of his last 25 matches and four of his last five tournaments since losing in the third round of the Australian Open in January.

Every March and April at Indian Wells and Miami, trophies and big checks are handed out, but this time the top of the sport’s tectonic plates shifted just enough to create new intrigue as tennis moves to Europe for the clay-court season and then onto the grass.

Nadal, the so-called King of Clay, the winner of 14 French Open titles, posted on Instagram a picture of himself stretching for a shot in practice last week, an unsubtle hint that he plans to be ready. The prognosis is good for Swiatek, who was undefeated on clay last spring. Djokovic has endured forced layoffs because he is unvaccinated before and has come back stronger. No one doubts he will not do the same this time.

Those three may be poised to strike, but they also know the ever-evolving challenges that await them. Even though he exited a round short of the final here in Florida, Alcaraz, with his jaw-dropping display of shotmaking, left behind another slew of victims, solidifying his stature as the most disruptively powerful force in the game.

Taylor Fritz, the top American, relished the chance to face Alcaraz for the first time in the quarterfinals here on Thursday. He came away from the straight-sets beating wondering what had hit him. Fritz came out pounding 110-miles-per-hour second serves that the Spaniard turned into clean winners. Fritz crushed backhands across the court that Alcaraz banged back with impossible backhands down the line. He said Alcaraz inflicted a level of suffocation he had not experienced the first time he played Djokovic, Nadal or Roger Federer.

“I definitely felt like I had more breathing room against those guys than in this match,” Fritz said.

Medvedev, safe from Alcaraz on the other side of the draw, watched on television — Medvedev watches a lot of tennis on television when he remains alive in a tournament — and saw that Alcaraz was hitting forehands at blazing speed. He shook his head.

“People are like, Why cannot other people play against Carlos?” Medvedev said. “Well, I cannot hit 110-miles forehand. Yeah, that’s an advantage.”

But Medvedev, who lost to Alcaraz in the men’s singles final at Indian Wells and is almost as good a pundit as he is a player, offered some counterintuitive analysis. Conventional wisdom would suggest that trying to outhit Alcaraz would be a fool’s errand, since that is how Alcaraz prefers to play.

Medvedev though, said that is most likely why Sinner has been more successful than anyone else against Alcaraz. Alcaraz is more consistent, and possesses crisp volleys, the most deceptive drop shots and relentless defense. But, Medvedev said: “Jannik can hit the ball very strong. I think that’s where they have this kind of Ping-Pong tennis. That’s where he can bring him trouble.”

And then Sinner did, coming back from a set down against Alcaraz, running him into leg cramps in yet another of their highlight reel displays.

“You have to go for shots where usually you don’t go for it” against Alcaraz, Sinner said.

Medvedev, who has now won all of their matches, presented a different challenge for Sinner, who said he woke up feeling under the weather. Medvedev is a human backboard, whose flat power did not pop into Sinner’s strike zone the way Alcaraz’s powerful topspin did on this slick hardcourt that was a near-perfect fit for Medvedev’s game.

Early on, Medvedev lulled Sinner into long rallies. Sinner shifted to a more aggressive tack, which helped. But feeling less than 100 percent and with a three-hour battle with Alcaraz still in his legs, he wilted in the 86-degree heat, unable to find the next gear he needed to win his first Masters 1000 title.

“I’m getting closer and closer,” Sinner said of his lopsided record against Medvedev. “Every player has a player or two they are not comfortable with.”

Another pattern worth noting: It has been said that an unkempt Medvedev is the best Medvedev. When he has showed up to play clean-shaven with his hair nearly groomed, as though he had just stepped out of a fashion shoot for Lacoste, his game has been flat. But when he takes the court with a scraggly beard, with his hair flying in four directions and his shirt a size or two too big, his inner artist and assassin seem to become fully realized.

No surprise then, that Medvedev has been properly unkempt for the past month. He has been working with a new mental coach as well, though he won’t reveal the name, after a year without one that did not go well.

“I always try to do my best, always try to work hard,” Medvedev said. “You never know when it is going to pay.”

Even after losing in Saturday’s final to snap a 13-match winning streak, Rybakina will head into the clay-court season as a force who grows more fearsome every month. She won her first Grand Slam title at Wimbledon last year, but her ranking remained artificially low because after Wimbledon prohibited Russians and Belarusians from competing, the tours withheld rankings points for the event. She spent all summer and fall trying to make up for that, but arrived in Australia rested. She cruised into the final, where she lost to Aryna Sabalenka in three tight sets.

She has barely let up since, using her powerful serve and rolling backhand to overwhelm her opponents. She finally ran out of gas on Saturday after a mesmerizing first-set tiebreaker. Kvitova, who won her ninth Masters 1000 title, saved six set points before winning, 7-6 (14), 6-2.

“Happy with the run and super proud of myself,” Rybakina said when it was over.

And what to make of Kvitova? She is 33 and a two-time Wimbledon champion who just won her first Masters 1000 title since 2018, to say nothing of the 2016 attack in her home that left her dominant left hand bloodied and with torn ligaments. Not even Kvitova could answer that as she sat next to the glass trophy early Saturday evening.

“I have no idea what this will do,” she said. “The clay is waiting and then it’s grass. The tennis world is just very fast, and I can’t really stand there and be watching this trophy.”

Neither can Medvedev nor any of the others who excelled in the last month. Novak and Rafa and Iga await.