DAMIEN COMOLLI believes the coronavirus crunch will spell the end of football’s big-money transfers – with the swap deal making a comeback.
The former Liverpool and Tottenham director of football is also predicting a cut in agents’ fees and Premier League squad sizes.
Ex-Tottenham and Liverpool chief Damien Comolli says transfer swap deals will become the normCredit: Sky Sports
And he has warned stars coming to the end of their contracts they may have to slash their salaries if they want to continue playing.
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Comolli, one of the most experienced administrators and negotiators in world football, believes the landscape of the game in this country will look very different when it is finally able to resume after the current Covid-19 lockdown.
He said: “Everything will change. I think we are going to be in a situation we’ve never seen before.
“The whole business model of football will be changing. There will be a situation where clubs will have a little bit of cash and be able to sweep the market by investing in young players. And there will be clubs which have no money at all.
“For the first time we will see something on a global scale that we have only seen recently in Italy – where clubs will swap players with maybe a little bit of cash going one way.”
Comolli, 47, is also tipping a rise in the number of loan deals as clubs look to balance the books by clearing wage bills.
He added: “I also think there will be an interesting trend with free transfers. The free transfers at the top 20 clubs in the world will become hot property because they will have no transfer fee attached to them.
“They will probably be able to achieve the same level of remuneration or maybe increase it.
“But players at the end of contract on June 30 or whenever Fifa decides this season ends – and who are on a lower tier – will see their remuneration decrease significantly.”
Football in this country has been suspended since March 13 and with no matchday revenues and TV payments to rely on, club owners throughout the land are predicting a doomsday scenario for the game’s finances.
Comolli believes the days of £100m signings are over.
Speaking on Sky’s Football Show, he said: “There are two issues – the first is cash availability.
“The chairman of Brighton said last week they could lose £50million in this crisis. And previously the chairman of Burnley said they were forecasting to lose £55m.
“It’s not rocket science to understand that is their transfer budget.
“So if they are losing that kind of money the transfer budget will be used to cover those losses.
“This means they will only be able to buy if they sell but it will be a vicious circle and they won’t be able to sell so they will not be able to spend.
“The second aspect is there are two or three clubs in the Premier League and half a dozen around Europe with a lot of cash. Then you have a PR thing to worry about.
“If you a chief executive in that in a time of crisis, when there are a 100,000 people dying and more people losing their jobs with the economy going downhill, will it be right and morally correct for a club to spend £100m on a player?
“I’m not sure it will be the case.”
Comolli added: “Clubs are asking government bailouts and furloughing staff and asking not to pay tax for a while, but at the same time are planning to spend £40m on a player, what will the taxman say?
“They will say ‘You asked us to bail you out and then you want to spend £40m on a player – it doesn’t make sense.’
“So all of those aspects will make the market interesting but rigid as well.”
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And Comolli warned players and clubs will not be the only ones hit in the pocket by the fallout from the current global health emergency.
The French transfer guru believes agents will also suffer.
He said: “Fifa have said they want to change the way agents are paid and being capped at a much lower percentage than it is now.
“I think if players remuneration goes down then agents’ fees will automatically go down. And if transfer fees are going down, agents fees paid on transfers will go down as well.
“I think cleaning up this side of the business is very important and current circumstances could help. But I think it will be automatic if clubs and players have less money.”
But Comolli reckons there is one group of players who could benefit from all of the inevitable belt-tightening – youngsters.
He said: “I think another trend we will see is much more smaller squads. Twenty-five man squads in the Premier League – should they be that big.
“I think clubs will look at it and say ‘We’ll take 15, 16, 17, 18 seasoned professionals and the rest will be youngsters. Even the bigger clubs.
“I think we will see a massive decline in squad numbers, but a trend of big clubs signing young players.
“I cannot see clubs spending big money on players over 25 or 26. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see clubs spend north of £100m on a spread of five, six, seven players who could be the core of their team for the next five to eight years.”
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