More stories

  • in

    NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference Championships

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference ChampionshipsWith a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Tom Brady leads Tampa Bay into Green Bay while Josh Allen and the Bills take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.The conference championship games have M.V.P. candidates on each team: Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.Credit…Clockwise from top left: Brynn Anderson/Associated Press; Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press; Jamie Squire/Getty Images; Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressJan. 21, 2021Updated 9:42 a.m. ETA complicated and stressful N.F.L. season is nearing its conclusion, with four star-studded teams facing off on Sunday with a Super Bowl appearance on the line. Each of the remaining teams has a Most Valuable Player Award candidate at quarterback, stars at wide receiver and defenses that can make big plays. The questions for this weekend include which of the N.F.C.’s celebrated quarterbacks will make his return to the Super Bowl and whether the upstart Buffalo Bills can knock off the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.Here is a look at the conference championship games. Unlike in the regular season, the picks in the playoffs are not made against the spread to emphasize which teams we believe will win.Playoff record: 8-8N.F.C. Championship GameTampa Bay has numerous receiving options, but Mike Evans, at 6 feet 5 inches, is a dominant force in the red zone.Credit…Brynn Anderson/Associated PressDavante Adams of the Green Bay Packers had a career year, with 1,374 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns.Credit…Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers, 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FoxLine: Packers -3 | Total: 51More than a hundred players will suit up for this game, but the spotlight will fall on two of them: Tom Brady of the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. It isn’t unusual for quarterbacks to command most of the attention, but this matchup goes beyond that.Brady, with more career touchdown passes and more Super Bowl wins than any other player, had a terrific 2020 season, throwing 40 touchdown passes and ending Tampa Bay’s long postseason drought. Rodgers, a two-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award and one-time winner of the Super Bowl, had perhaps the best season of his career, throwing 48 touchdown passes while leading the N.F.C.’s top team.The quarterbacks have combined to start 551 games, including in the postseason. But largely as a result of playing in different conferences for most of their careers, they have faced off as starters just three times. Two came in Brady’s time with the New England Patriots, with Brady beating the Packers in 2018 and Rodgers beating the Patriots in 2014. They faced each other in Week 6 of this season, with the Buccaneers winning, 38-10. It was the Packers’ lowest scoring game of the year.Brady, 43, has a career edge in accomplishments. Rodgers, who is six years younger, has a physical edge. After a few quiet seasons, by his standards, Rodgers in 2020 used wide receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to shred defenses as the Packers led the N.F.L. in scoring and finished fifth in total yardage. Brady’s statistics were also impressive, but he is more physically limited than he was in the past, frequently relying on talented receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski to turn short passes into long gains.In a more neutral environment, Tampa Bay could have counted on its young defense to shift the balance in the Buccaneers’ favor by pressuring Rodgers. In that scenario, the team would rely on Brady to put up points against a good defense that is not nearly as explosive. But in Green Bay, with snow showers in the forecast and a game-time temperature expected to be around 30 degrees, a team from Florida — even one with a New England icon at quarterback — will be out of its element.The Packers fought hard to secure home field advantage throughout the N.F.C. playoffs, and this game should reward them for that effort, ending the Buccaneers’ attempt to be the first team to appear in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. Pick: PackersA.F.C. Championship GameStefon Diggs was acquired by Buffalo in an off-season trade. He responded with the best season of his career.Credit…Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTravis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs set an N.F.L. record with 1,416 yards receiving as a tight end.Credit…Reed Hoffmann/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. Sunday, CBSLine: Chiefs -3 | Total: 53.5The Chiefs’ pursuit of a second straight Super Bowl victory hit its first real speed bump last weekend when Patrick Mahomes had his neck twisted by a defender as he was dragged to the turf, putting him in the N.F.L.’s concussion protocol and forcing him out of Kansas City’s 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs iced that victory with key plays by the backup quarterback, Chad Henne, but Mahomes’s absence was palpable in a game Kansas City was expected to win in a blowout.Mahomes has practiced lightly this week while working to be cleared, but there is little fear he will miss the game. As a result, the A.F.C. will get a strength-against-strength matchup between the conference’s best teams of the regular season.The Bills had an offensive renaissance this season thanks to the development of quarterback Josh Allen and the arrival of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They led Buffalo to the second most points in the league and its first division title since 1995. While the defense took a major step backward from a brilliant 2019 season, a strong performance last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens proved the unit could be great when needed.Buffalo might have to play a perfect game to compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs stormed back to win last season’s Super Bowl behind Mahomes’s brilliance, and lost only two games in the 2020 season — one a meaningless Week 17 game in which Mahomes and other starters were rested. The Chiefs will be at their best if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns from a Week 16 hip injury, but the offense has plenty of options without him, including wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.The Chiefs are the clear favorites, particularly at home, but Buffalo should not be counted out. If its defense can play the way it did in the divisional round and Allen can avoid mistakes, the Bills can turn this into quite a fight. But the most likely result is a Kansas City victory, which would give the Chiefs the chance to be the first team since the Patriots in the 2003 and 2004 seasons to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Pick: Chiefs.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Players in a New Super League Would Be Barred From the World Cup

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyPlayers in a New Super League Would Be Barred From the World CupFIFA sends a stern warning to clubs that are considering forming their own lucrative competition.Barcelona and Bayern Munich are two of the teams that could be candidates for a European Super League.Credit…Pool photo by Manu Fernandez/EPA, via ShutterstockJan. 21, 2021Updated 9:39 a.m. ETTop players will be barred from playing for their national teams in events like the World Cup if their clubs join a breakaway league, the major governing bodies warned on Thursday.The announcement by FIFA and soccer’s six regional confederations follows weeks of talks and months of disquiet after the revelation of plans hatched by some of the world’s richest and most popular clubs — led by Real Madrid and Manchester United — to create a so-called Super League. That competition, which would be controlled by the teams, could at a stroke render irrelevant the Champions League, European soccer’s immensely popular club competition.Talks about a new league come as discussions with European soccer’s governing body UEFA over a new format for the Champions League beginning with the 2024 season are close to completion. Some senior leaders at UEFA are hoping to announce the changes, the biggest to the event in a generation, as soon as the organization’s annual meeting next month.FIFA said in a statement that a Super League “would not be recognized by either FIFA or the respective confederation. Any club or player involved in such a competition would as a consequence not be allowed to participate in any competition organized by FIFA or their respective confederation.”According to documents reviewed by The New York Times, plans for the breakaway European Super League, a project that has been mooted for decades, gathered pace since the summer. Top clubs sought to take advantage of uncertainty in the soccer industry caused by the coronavirus pandemic to forge a new path that would insure a degree of financial stability for them but almost certainly lead to a loss in the value and revenue for teams excluded from the project.Under the proposals, the Super League, which would be played in the middle of the week, would have 16 top soccer franchises as permanent members and add four qualifiers from domestic competitions. The clubs would be split into two groups of 10 with the top four teams in each group qualifying for the knockout stages, culminating in a final that would take place on a weekend. The event would, according to the documents, generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue for the participating teams, already the richest clubs in the sport. (An alternative version of the plan has 15 permanent members and 5 qualification spots.)The group has already entered into discussions with JPMorgan Chase&Co. to raise financing for the project, according to people with knowledge of the matter. A spokesman for the bank declined to comment.The clearest public indication of how advanced the talks among the clubs are came when Josep Maria Bartomeu, the former president of Barcelona, announced in October that his team had agreed with the leaders of what he described as Europe’s other “big clubs” to participate in a European Super League. Bayern Munich, Germany’s biggest team, spoke out this week against a breakaway, but should other top teams find an agreement it would be unrealistic for that club not to be involved as well.The project has long been the brainchild of Florentino Perez, the president of Barcelona’s rival Real Madrid. Leaked documents from 2018 revealed he had drawn up plans with a Spanish consultancy for a new competition and then held a meeting with FIFA’s president Gianni Infantino in 2019 to discuss the plans further, telling him that teams from the Super League competition would be willing to participate in FIFA’s expanded World Cup for clubs, a quadrennial event that Infantino believes could grow to become one of the most important properties in all of sports.Since the summer, Perez found a new ally in Joel Glazer, the chairman of Manchester United, who has also joined forces with the American owners of Liverpool in an effort to force through changes to the Premier League that would benefit his team. Glazer has been promoting the idea of the Super League, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. A spokesman for United said the team would not comment.The joint announcement by FIFA and the six confederations follows talks on Monday between Infantino and his counterpart at UEFA, Aleksander Ceferin. The two men have had a bumpy relationship since 2018 when Infantino announced his ambitions for FIFA’s own club competitions and growing suggestions of his involvement in the breakaway talks. Infantino has always publicly denied any interest in supporting a European breakaway.Ceferin has frequently launched broadsides against the Super League discussions. “It would be hard to think of a more selfish and egotistical scheme,” he said after one iteration of a breakaway was discussed. “It would clearly ruin football around the world; for the players, for the fans and for everyone connected with the game — all for the benefit of a tiny number of people.”UEFA’s proposals for the new version of the Champions League go a long way to meeting the demands of the biggest clubs for an expanded tournament. If agreed, the tournament will feature 36 teams instead of the 32 it currently does, with two of those places reserved for teams that have been historically successful in European competition but failed to meet the qualification criteria. That would mean the possibility of a return to top tier action for the likes of A.C. Milan, a soccer heavyweight that has fallen on hard times. UEFA’s reforms would also scrap the current opening stage in which teams are separated into eight groups of four, and instead place them into one table, with qualifiers for the knockouts determined by results after each team has played as many as 10 games.Access to the competition, unlike the Super League, would largely be from the domestic leagues, ensuring they remain relevant.The European Leagues, an umbrella group for many of the continent’s leagues, issued a statement endorsing the declaration against the Super League by the governing bodies.“The European Leagues’ board of directors has discussed the initiative of some European football clubs to create a closed European Super League for a limited number of clubs similar to those franchise models operating in North America,” the group said.“UEFA and the other football Confederations from all over the world have, together with FIFA, published a strong statement against this initiative and our member leagues are unanimously supporting that statement.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Moisés Caicedo and the Perils of Too Much Interest

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn SoccerA Promising Star. A Gaggle of Suitors. A Wake of Vultures.It did not take long for the performances of a 19-year-old in Ecuador to catch the eyes of Europe’s biggest clubs. In soccer’s cutthroat transfer market, they were not the only ones watching.It did not take long for Moisés Caicedo to establish himself as a star for Independiente del Valle in Ecuador.Credit…Jose Jacome/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJan. 21, 2021, 8:30 a.m. ETNothing stays secret for long in soccer. So thorough is the game’s hunt for talent and so desperate its thirst for players that no territory goes uncharted, no stone unturned, no prospect unobserved. Distance is no barrier. Remoteness is not a factor. The searchlight is so bright that there is no such thing, any more, as obscurity.And so, over the course of the last year, the powerhouse clubs of Europe’s major leagues have been turning their attention to Sangolqui, a suburb to the south of the Ecuador’s capital, Quito. They have focused on a club that hardly uses its own tight, compact stadium, and on a teenage midfielder not yet two seasons into his senior career.Moisés Caicedo would not have known it — not until recently — but his name has been playing on the lips of scouts and technical directors across Europe for months.Few, if any, clubs from the old world have a dedicated scout for leagues like Ecuador’s. Instead, emerging players are spotted in South America’s continental competitions — the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamericana — or tracked through international youth tournaments.When a player of interest is identified, members of the recruitment staff trawl through footage of his domestic displays, and the corresponding performance data, on platforms like Wyscout, InStat and Scout7. Only then, if the numbers add up, will scouts — either club employees or trusted freelancers in specific markets — be sent to watch the player in person.An energetic and composed midfielder, Caicedo, now 19, passed every test. Manchester United’s South American scout alerted his employers to Caicedo’s ability. A.C. Milan found that the data and the assessment of their talent spotters tallied up. Club Bruges, the Belgian champion, noticed him, too. So did a phalanx of teams from England — Brighton and Chelsea among them. Nothing, after all, stays secret for long.All, independently, determined that Caicedo was an interesting proposition. Many of them started making discreet enquiries, performing the due diligence on both the player and his club — Independiente del Valle — to work out how a deal might be done. And they all heard precisely the same warning: Finding Caicedo was the easy bit. Working out how, exactly, to sign him would be much more difficult.A Rapid RiseCaicedo’s development came faster than his team expected, but the club felt it was a vindication of the model it built for finding stars.Credit…Pool photo by Rodrigo BuendiaEven at Independiente del Valle, there was some surprise at just how quickly the teenager the club had found playing in Santo Domingo — a small city a few hours west of Quito — had developed.When he moved to Sangolqui, Caicedo was not one of the standouts on the under-16 team that he joined, but he was quiet, determined, a fast learner. That squad contained several players who would represent Ecuador at the youth level, but by late 2019, Caicedo had outstripped them all.He made his league debut for Independiente in October that year, as a substitute against Liga de Quito; by the end of the month, he had his first start. In February 2020, he captained the club’s youth side to victory in the under-20 Copa Libertadores. When he returned, he went straight to the first team: He appeared in his first senior Libertadores game in April.If the speed of his success was a touch unexpected, it was treated within Independiente as vindication of the club’s model. Though the team had been founded in 1958, its modern incarnation came into being only in 2007, when it was taken over — and turned into a private enterprise — by a group of entrepreneurs, led by Michel Deller.“There was a clear vision,” said Luis Roggiero, the club’s sports manager. “There is a pool of talent in Ecuador that had not been given an opportunity to develop: The players that had come through had done so on their own merit, not because they found a club or federation that helped them. The idea was to construct a club to compete at national and international level by finding our own talents, finding them early, and developing them our way.”To do that, the club commissioned a study of the districts in Ecuador that produced the most players, Roggiero said, and then constructed training bases in each of them: dragnets to capture whatever talent came through. The best prospects would then be recruited to the club’s main training facility in Sangolqui — which contains accommodations for 120 young players and an on-site school — to be inculcated in the team’s style of play.“We built an idea of how we wanted to play, and then designed training — technical and physical and mental — to help them produce that,” Roggiero said. It was a long-term plan that has born fruit: In 2016, less than a decade after Deller and his associates found the club in Ecuador’s third division, Independiente reached the final of the Copa Libertadores, where it lost to Colombia’s Atlético Nacional. The club is now a regular sight in the latter rounds of South America’s biggest club competition.Roggiero attributes that success to the fact that — unlike many teams in Ecuador, and across South America — Independiente is privately owned. “We are not subject to elections, so we can have long-term horizons,” he said. “We can be responsible financially, we can maintain the same administration. The club can be sustainable. The idea has been reinforced by the results we have had in our short history. It shows the road we have chosen is valid.”Success on the field, though, is not the only gauge of the club’s success. So, too, are the players it has produced. Graduates from Independiente’s finishing school are now a regular sight on Ecuador’s various national teams: Seven members of the current men’s squad came through the club’s system, as did six players on the women’s national side. Scouts, agents and technical directors now flock to Sangolqui to scour its youth teams for signs of promise; an annual international under-18 tournament it hosts has become compulsory viewing for those in the recruitment business.In recent years, Independiente has been able to sell players not only to the leagues that have some tradition of importing from Ecuador — those in Argentina, Mexico, Brazil — but also, increasingly, to clubs in Europe: Players have left for Granada and Real Valladolid in Spain, for Italy’s Atalanta, for Brighton in England, for Genk in Belgium and for Sporting Lisbon in Portugal.As Caicedo’s star rose, it became clear that he would be the next to make that journey.But while more European teams might be aware of Independiente — and Ecuador as a whole, after a run of success for its international youth teams — as a source of talent, the country remains an unfamiliar market for most.Its clubs, generally, prefer to sell to other South American leagues, where the initial fee can often be higher; the most powerful agencies in the country tend to have well-established links with Brazil, Mexico and the United States. Few European teams have a presence, or a way in. For them, it can be uncertain, unfamiliar ground.And there are always plenty of people, in soccer’s transfer market, ready to capitalize on any uncertainty at all. Unfamiliarity, for some operators, means opportunity.The SquabbleMultiple teams in Europe have expressed interest in Caicedo. It is not entirely clear whom they must work with to acquire him.Credit…Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMost of Europe’s clubs received the same feedback when they started to delve a little deeper into Caicedo’s situation: It was not immediately clear, they were told, precisely who was representing the player, who had the power to agree to terms on his behalf. “Too many agents involved,” as the note sent to one recruitment department read.A transfer deal should, on the surface, be a straightforward thing. The buying club should — strictly speaking — contact the selling team, establish a price, and then contact the player’s agent in order to work out the personal terms.If that is a little naïve, then the pragmatic alternative — contact the agents first, find out if the player is interested, ask what a deal would cost, and then present the selling club with a fait accompli before haggling over price — might be more cynical, but it is not substantially more complicated.The reality, though, is much messier. Teams frequently give an agent a mandate to sell their own player, in order to retain a degree of negotiating power. Often, different agents will be given mandates to sell players to different countries: One will do the deal if an Italian team is interested, someone else if it is a Spanish club. Those mandates can then be traded and sold between agents.As soon as a talented player emerges, a suite of agents will typically descend on him, offering exclusive access to a particular team or league, or simply an ability to negotiate a better deal. Sometimes players sign multiple agreements with multiple agents, based on nothing more than promises.Most of those involved in recruitment accept this as the way things are, and the way they have always been across the world, though many find it especially difficult to untangle deals to take players out of South America. The sporting director at one major European club, though, believes the problem has become much worse since FIFA moved to deregulate agents in 2015. “Now, you can basically do anything you like,” said the director, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to address the issue publicly.It is precisely that sort of free-for-all that engulfed Caicedo. For much of his nascent professional career, he has been represented by Kancha, an Ecuadorean agency with a roster of young players and a cohort at Independiente. As clubs’ interest in him grew, though, so too did interest from agencies, eager to profit not only from his promise but also from teams’ comparative inexperience in buying players in Ecuador.Members of the Caicedo’s family — he is the youngest of 10 siblings, and has 25 nephews — were inundated with offers from agents seeking a mandate to sell him. Those close to the dealings, though not authorized to speak on the record about private business arrangements, said they believed that relatives had reached agreements with two of them: a German-based firm, PSM Proformance, and a company in Argentina. PSM Proformance did not respond to a request for comment.All of a sudden, there were three agencies — including Kancha — claiming to speak for Caicedo, to have the power to do a deal. Independiente, the club that had nurtured him, was effectively rendered irrelevant in the sale: It will receive roughly the same fee regardless of which agent strikes a deal, and is expected to ask for a clause that will bring the club a 30 percent cut on any future transfer, too.But if his club is unaffected, the same cannot necessarily be said of Caicedo. With multiple agents not only touting him across Europe but also peppering the news media, in Ecuador and farther afield, with tips about his potential destination, many clubs that had been enticed by Caicedo’s enormous promise chose to walk away. Manchester United and Milan both decided not to become embroiled in a situation they deemed too knotty to unravel.Others stayed the course. Brighton — currently considered his most likely destination — had the advantage of a pre-existing relationship with Independiente and Kancha, having signed a player from both in 2018. Caicedo will get his move: His talent, ultimately, guarantees that.What concerns those who have watched him flourish over the last couple of years is whether it will be the right move, for the right reasons. Caicedo’s rise, so far, has been unexpectedly, almost impossibly smooth. Being exposed to the perils of the transfer market, though, means the road ahead is littered with obstacles. He has been found. The risk now is that he might yet be lost.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Is the N.F.L. Over Punting?

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn FootballIs the N.F.L. Over Punting?Analytics-minded observers have long argued against punting, but what may finally persuade N.F.L. coaches to go for it on fourth down is another postseason with high-profile successes.San Francisco 49ers punter Mitch Wishnowsky punted during a game against the Dallas Cowboys during the 2020-21 N.F.L. season.Credit…Brandon Wade/Associated PressJan. 21, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ETAs a tactic for winning football games, punting makes little sense. Basketball teams don’t stop rebounding and offer the ball to the opponent if they miss a few jumpers. Baseball teams don’t reach an 0-2 count with two outs and declare: “Oh well, the odds are against us. You’re up!” Yet football coaches, those self-styled battle-hardened generals, have been meekly surrendering on fourth downs for decades.The punt, a holdover from football’s rugby-related roots, has been part of the N.F.L.’s calcified conventional wisdom for generations. But the tactic has fallen on hard times in recent years. The events of this year’s playoffs could push the punt to the verge of extinction. When Chiefs Coach Andy Reid made the bold fourth-quarter decision in Kansas City’s divisional-round playoff victory over the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, he may have launched the meteor.Reid’s Chiefs appeared to be trying to lure the Browns defense offsides before an evitable punt on fourth-and-inches while protecting a narrow 22-17 lead. Instead, the Chiefs snapped the ball and surprised the defense with a short pass that allowed them to run out the clock instead of giving the Browns a chance to attempt a desperate final touchdown drive.Reid’s daring decision was the latest development in what has become a postseason referendum on punting. Moments earlier, the Browns had punted despite trailing in the fourth quarter, hoping their defense could stop a Chiefs offense missing the injured superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. It could not.In the previous week’s wild-card round, both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans punted in late-game, short-yardage situations while trailing, only to allow the Browns and Baltimore Ravens to score on the next possession, extend their leads and ultimately win both games.Punting has become far less prevalent in recent years. N.F.L. teams punted an average of 3.7 times per game during the 2020 regular season, the lowest figure in recorded pro football history. Teams averaged 4.8 punts per game as recently as 2017, a rate that had held more-or-less steady since the mid-1980s but has declined in each of the last four seasons.The sudden decrease in punting comes over a decade after the football analytics community began decrying the punt as a counterproductive strategy, particularly in short-yardage situations near midfield or when trailing late in a close game. It doesn’t take much number crunching to realize that if the average offense gains 5.6 yards per play (the 2020 rate), not only should a team be able to pick up a yard or two on fourth down, but it should also be wary of gifting the ball to an opposing offense capable of marching right back down the field 5.6 yards at a time.Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill made the catch on fourth down to end the Browns’ chance to come back on Sunday.Credit…Reed Hoffmann/Associated PressFans have become increasingly aware of the analytics of punting, thanks to social media accounts that provide real-time calculations of a team’s chances of winning based on various in-game decisions. However, it takes a long time for anything remotely scientific to gain acceptance in a league where coaches have been passing down both sacred tactical oral wisdom and tough-guy rhetoric since the days of George Halas.In the primordial N.F.L. of the 1920s, it was common for a superstar like Jim Thorpe to punt on first down if his team was pinned near its own goal line. The early-down punt disappeared at about the same time as the leather helmet, but punting on fourth down in most circumstances (when not in field-goal range) became the unquestioned norm at all levels of play. That made sense at the time. In the early 1950s, N.F.L. teams averaged less than five yards per play and committed well over three turnovers per game (the 2020 turnover rate was just 1.3 per game), so there was a decent chance that the punting team would quickly get the ball back.Offenses have grown steadily more efficient since the late 1970s. Yet most coaches remained convinced that even a fourth-and-inches conversion attempt was as nearly as risky as betting the deed to the farm on the hope of a royal flush.Conversion attempts gradually increased as mavericks like New England Patriots Coach Bill Belichick (who has an economics degree) and then-Panthers coach Ron Rivera (whose nickname is Riverboat Ron) enjoyed success with fourth-and-short “gambles” over the last two decades. Doug Pederson, the former Philadelphia Eagles head coach, bucked conventional wisdom in Super Bowl LII with several high-risk fourth-down conversions, including the Philly Special (a goal-line trick play for a touchdown run in a typical field-goal situation) and a fourth-and-1 pass while protecting a fourth-quarter lead, which was similar to Reid’s decision on Sunday.A few high-profile anecdotes carry more weight in the N.F.L. than a mountain of statistical research, so it’s no surprise that punt rates began dropping precipitously after Super Bowl LII. The last two weeks of playoff results will likely further sour coaches on punting when they have no other viable options.There will always be a place for the punt on fourth-and-15 from the shadow of a team’s own goal posts. And in a league full of traditionalists who still chant mantras like “establish the run” and “defense wins championships,” no strategy is likely to disappear overnight. But gradually, coaches will begin to wonder why they are replacing their multimillion-dollar quarterbacks in high-leverage situations with the player most likely to walk through a parking lot tailgate unrecognized, and why they preach aggressiveness all week during practice, only to timidly, and voluntarily, give the ball to their opponents with the game on the line.As soon as the tough guys and mathematicians finally agree about punting, they can start debating in earnest about settling for field goals.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Philip Rivers Retires After 17 N.F.L. Seasons

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyPhilip Rivers Retires After 17 N.F.L. SeasonsThe longtime Chargers quarterback, who played this season for the Colts, was a durable contributor to the league’s aerial explosion.Philip Rivers retired ranked fifth in the three major career categories: completed passes (5,277), passing yards (63,440) and passing touchdowns (421).Credit…Lynne Sladky/Associated PressJan. 20, 2021, 10:43 a.m. ETQuarterback Philip Rivers, who led the Chargers and the Colts with notable talent and durability in his 17-year N.F.L. career, retired on Wednesday at 39.Rivers was named the starting quarterback of the Chargers, then based in San Diego, in 2006. In the years since, he managed to start all 16 regular-season games in an astonishing 15 consecutive seasons, 14 with the Chargers as the franchise moved to Los Angeles, and the 2020 season with the Indianapolis Colts. He had at least 20 touchdown passes, 250 completions and 3,000 yards in every one of those seasons.Rivers retires ranking fifth in the three major career categories: completed passes (5,277), passing yards (63,440) and passing touchdowns (421). In each case, he ranks behind Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre, in some order.Unlike those four quarterbacks, he never played on a team good enough to make a Super Bowl. His career playoff record was only 5-7. Still, he was good enough to make eight Pro Bowls, and lead in just about every passer category for a season or two.“Every year, Jan. 20 is a special and emotional day,” Rivers told ESPN. “It is St. Sebastian’s feast day, the day I played in the A.F.C. championship without an A.C.L., and now the day that after 17 seasons, I’m announcing my retirement from the National Football League.”In the A.F.C. championship game for the 2007 season, Rivers played despite having torn his anterior cruciate ligament. The Chargers lost to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, 21-12, denying Rivers that elusive Super Bowl appearance.Rivers crossed paths with several quarterbacks who, like him, may wind up in the Hall of Fame. He was drafted No. 4 over all out of North Carolina State by the Giants, who immediately traded him to the Chargers for the No. 1 pick, Eli Manning.After two seasons on the bench, Rivers got the starting job with the Chargers when they decided to let their incumbent quarterback, Drew Brees, leave as a free agent. But Rivers proved nearly as productive over his long career.Even in his final season, with Indianapolis, he led the team to an 11-5 record. In his final game, he lost to the Buffalo Bills in the first round of the playoffs, 27-24.Born in Alabama, the son of a high school football coach and a teacher, Rivers for a time caught the fancy of fans by wearing a bolo tie at postgame interviews. “Whether he does or not, he comes across as a guy who when he’s done playing is going to be on a ranch, cleaning a barn or riding a horse,” Chargers tight end Antonio Gates said in 2014 of Rivers, who had a locker next to him for a decade. “He’s got that true country boy in him.”“I can sit here and say: ‘I can still throw it. I love to play,’” Rivers told The San Diego Union-Tribune. “But that’s always going to be there. I’m excited to go coach high school football.”In May, Rivers was announced as the next head coach at St. Michael Catholic High School in Fairhope, Ala., effective after his N.F.L. career was over.Rivers concluded a statement of thanks to fans, coaches and teammates with the Latin phrase “nunc coepi,” which he has translated as “now I begin.” The phrase has served as his motto over the years, and hung on the wall of the Chargers’ locker room.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    When the Removal of 2 N.F.L. Stars From Playoff Games Is Progress

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyOn Pro FootballWhen the Removal of 2 N.F.L. Stars From Playoff Games Is ProgressLamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes did not return to games over the weekend after exhibiting concussion symptoms, satisfying critics who have long accused the league of turning a blind eye to brain injuries.A trainer checked on Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson after he was injured on Saturday against the Bills.Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressJan. 18, 2021Updated 8:30 p.m. ETIn a season dominated by the N.F.L.’s efforts to play a full schedule during a pandemic, many other health issues have been overshadowed, particularly concussions, an issue that has dogged the league in years past.The topic returned to the forefront over the weekend when two of the league’s best players — the winners of the last two Most Valuable Player Awards, no less — were knocked out of their divisional round playoff games with symptoms consistent with concussions. The N.F.L. received kudos for following its own player safety rules, which were developed after years of criticism that not enough was being done to prevent head hits.Yet as is so often the case, hits to the head that were not penalized garnered just as much as attention. They suggest the league is far from eliminating the helmet-to-helmet hits that have led to so many head injuries.Most spectators, though, are more likely to remember the instances when star players leave games and don’t return, mostly because of their impact on the team’s chances of winning and because they are the reason fans watch the games in the first place.The first star player knocked out of a game came on Saturday in Buffalo when Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson slammed his head on the turf after he was thrown to the ground by two Bills defenders. Jackson grabbed his helmet and lay on his back as trainers rushed out to examine him. He was taken to the locker room for examination and did not return.On Sunday, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had his neck twisted by a Cleveland Browns defender as he was dragged to the ground. Mahomes wobbled as he stood up, and two teammates had to hold him upright until trainers could walk him off the field. Mahomes, too, was taken to the locker room and ruled out of the game. The Chiefs have confirmed that Mahomes is in the concussion protocol, but have yet to say he actually had a concussion.While fans of the Ravens and the Chiefs would vigorously disagree, others — especially the critics of the league who have long accused it of turning a blind eye to head injuries — might consider the removal of Jackson and Mahomes welcome sights.“The handling of Lamar Jackson’s and Patrick Mahomes’s concussions shows progress,” Chris Nowinski, chief executive of the Concussion Legacy Foundation, wrote on Twitter. “15 years ago: They may not miss a play. 10 years ago: Smelling salts on the bench & return. 5 years ago: 4th quarter comeback. Today: 2 top QB’s treated responsibly.”Indeed, the N.F.L. has focused more on head hits in recent years. The league has strengthened rules against hitting quarterbacks and players who lower their helmets to initiate contact. There were 125 roughing-the-passer penalties called this season, a 40 percent jump compared to 2016, according to the N.F.L. Penalties website, which tracks infractions. This season, there were 37 fouls called for illegal use of the helmet, one more than in 2019, the N.F.L. said.There were 224 reported concussions last season, a decline of 4.7 percent compared to 2018. The league has not yet reported complete concussion figures for this season, but they are likely to decline again because there were no preseason games and many teams canceled some practices to try to limit the spread of the coronavirus.Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was helped off the field after being taken down in the second half on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.Credit…Charlie Riedel/Associated PressMany concussions, though, go unreported, either because doctors and neurologists at the game failed to spot them or because the players masked their symptoms.Then there are the cases in which players smack helmets, no penalty flag is thrown, and no doctors intervene. That’s what happened late in the first half of the Chiefs-Browns matchup. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield threw a long pass to receiver Rashard Higgins, who ran a few strides and dived for the pylon on the goal line. Just as his outstretched arms and the ball were about to reach the goal line, Chiefs safety Daniel Sorenson launched himself at Higgins.Replays showed Sorenson lowered his helmet and crashed it into Higgins’s head. Higgins fumbled the ball out of bounds in the end zone, a touchback, ending the Browns’ chance for a touchdown and giving possession to the Chiefs at their 20-yard line.Sorenson was not penalized for leading with his helmet, and the Browns were unable to challenge the play because helmet-to-helmet hits are not reviewable. But the noncall, and others like it, did not escape notice by football insiders.“The number of ‘player safety’ penalties not being called by @NFL officials this entire weekend is concerning & unsettling,” Scott Pioli, a former director of player personnel for the New England Patriots and an analyst for CBS and NFL Network, wrote on Twitter. “A LOT of leading with head penalties not being called on defenders AND ballcarriers all weekend. Why have we abandoned the rules for the playoffs?”With the Chiefs advancing to the A.F.C. championship game, Mahomes’s recovery will remain a topic of interest. After Sunday’s game, Coach Andy Reid said his quarterback “got hit in the back of the head and kinda knocked the wind out of him and everything else with it.” But he added that Mahomes was “doing great” and passed some tests, without specifying what they were.According to N.F.L. guidelines, Mahomes must rest until his symptoms are gone and his performance on neurological exams is normal. He can then gradually increase the amount of exercise and stretching. Assuming he has no setbacks, Mahomes can then resume some activities, including strength training. That would lead to noncontact football activities like throwing and running. If all those hurdles are passed, he could be cleared by an independent neurologist to participate in the next practice or game.Players, though, can pass these tests and not report lingering symptoms, like memory loss or headaches. “It’s tough as a player to know what to report,” Nowinski said.In the past five seasons, the median number of days it took a quarterback to return from a concussion was seven. With that in mind, Mahomes could be back on the field when the Chiefs play the Bills on Sunday.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Drew Brees Considering Retirement After Playoff Ouster

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyDrew Brees Considering Retirement After Playoff OusterBrees, 42, said he will weigh ending his 20-year career after the Saints’ loss to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers in the divisional round.“I’ll answer this question one time, and that is I’m going to give myself an opportunity to think about the season, think about a lot of things, just like I did last year, and make the decision,” Brees said after Sunday’s game.Credit…Brynn Anderson/Associated PressJan. 17, 2021Drew Brees, who overcame a career-threatening shoulder injury to become the most statistically prolific quarterback in N.F.L. history, likely played the final game of his 20-year career Sunday, when his Saints lost, 30-20, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a divisional round playoff game in New Orleans.For his part, Brees declined to discuss his future, and said the outcome of Sunday’s game will have no bearing on whether or not he’ll choose to keep playing.“I’ll answer this question one time, and that is I’m going to give myself an opportunity to think about the season, think about a lot of things, just like I did last year, and make the decision,” Brees said.Brees, 42, has a year remaining on the two-year, $50 million contract extension he signed last March and has been approaching his status on a season-by-season basis. But in April he agreed to join NBC Sports as a football analyst, raising speculation that the 2020 season would be his last.“You find out so much about yourself, and you fight through so much when you play this game,” Brees said. “I’d say this season, I probably had to fight through more than I’ve ever had to in any other season in my career, from injuries to all the Covid stuff to just crazy circumstances, and it was worth every moment of it, absolutely.”Brees missed a month with 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung but returned for the Saints’ final three games of the regular season, winning two to help them capture the No. 2 seed in the N.F.C. playoffs. Instead of rounding out his career with a second championship to further elevate his legacy, Brees delivered a jarring conclusion, throwing three interceptions Sunday — including on both of the Saints’ fourth-quarter possessions.Over his 20 N.F.L. seasons, Brees set numerous passing records, including most career passing yards and completions, and won his only Super Bowl appearance, with New Orleans after the 2009 season. He ranks second in completion percentage, passing yards per game and touchdown passes, in that category trailing only Tom Brady, who threw two on Sunday to help eliminate the Saints.A second-round pick in 2001 by the Chargers out of Purdue, Brees made a Pro Bowl in San Diego but was discarded in favor of Philip Rivers. In the final game of the 2005 season, Brees, an impending free agent, dislocated his right shoulder and tore his rotator cuff and labrum, an injury so severe that he wondered whether he would ever play again.Only two teams pursued him that off-season — Miami and New Orleans, which had a 3-13 record in 2005 after being displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Undeterred by both the state of the city and the uncertain state of the organization, Brees chose to revive his career in New Orleans, where he joined forces with new coach Sean Payton.Together, they brought respectability to the franchise and hope to a devastated region. In his first season, Brees led the Saints, who had made the playoffs five times in 39 seasons before he came, to the N.F.C. championship game. In his fourth season, he led the Saints to a Super Bowl, beating three Hall of Fame quarterbacks — Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning — in the playoffs to do so.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Jordan McNair's Family Reaches $3.5 Million Settlement With University of Maryland

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyFamily Reaches $3.5 Million Settlement in Death of Maryland Football PlayerJordan McNair, a University of Maryland offensive lineman, collapsed from heatstroke during a practice in 2018 and died two weeks later.Jordan McNair in 2016, when he was in high school. He died in 2018 after sustaining heatstroke during a University of Maryland football practice.Credit…Barbara Haddock Taylor/The Baltimore Sun, via Associated PressJan. 17, 2021Updated 8:30 p.m. ETThe University of Maryland has reached a $3.5 million settlement agreement with the family of a football player who collapsed from heatstroke during a practice in May 2018 and died two weeks later.The details of the settlement were reported by ESPN and appeared in an agenda item for a meeting of the Maryland Board of Public Works, which will vote on it on Jan. 27. The settlement was reached more than two years after the death of the football player, Jordan McNair, a 19-year-old offensive lineman.Mr. McNair’s parents, Marty McNair and Tonya Wilson, could not immediately be reached for comment. “This has been a long and painful fight, but we will attempt to find closure even though this is a wound that will never, ever fully heal,” they said in a statement to ESPN.Their son’s death spurred two investigations and an ESPN report that described a “toxic culture” of bullying and humiliation in the university’s football program. The team’s head coach and two trainers were fired, and the team’s conditioning coach resigned.Mr. McNair collapsed in the heat during a practice on May 29, 2018, when he ran a 106-degree fever. An independent report commissioned by the university found that Mr. McNair was not properly cared for after he showed symptoms of heatstroke. Cold-water immersion, a standard treatment, was not performed, the report said, and it was more than an hour before anyone dialed 911.The head football coach, D.J. Durkin, and the athletic director, Damon Evans, were placed on administrative leave while the university investigated the claims that were raised in the ESPN report. The investigation found that the program did not have a “toxic culture,” but acknowledged that “too many players feared speaking out.” It suggested that Mr. Durkin had made errors but was not to blame for many of the program’s issues.One day after the university’s Board of Regents said Mr. Durkin would be reinstated, citing the investigation, Wallace D. Loh, the university’s president at the time, overruled the board and fired him.Soon after, the two athletic trainers who had attended to Mr. McNair were also fired, and Rick Court, the strength and conditioning coach who supervised the practice where Mr. McNair collapsed, resigned.The University of Maryland on Sunday declined to comment about the settlement agreement. It said an independent review panel made 41 recommendations in the aftermath of Mr. McNair’s death, all of which have been implemented.“The most notable was the transition to an autonomous healthcare model, where all team physicians are employees of our university health center,” it said. The law firm representing Mr. McNair’s parents said the McNairs were “relieved that this fight is over and to put this behind them as they continue to mourn Jordan’s death.”Mr. McNair’s death prompted criticism of universities and the National Collegiate Athletic Association for not adequately monitoring conditioning workouts, especially in the off-season.From 2000 to 2018, 31 N.C.A.A. football players died during off-season or preseason workouts from heatstroke, cardiac issues, asthma and other causes, according to Scott Anderson, the head athletic trainer at the University of Oklahoma, who keeps a database of athletic fatalities.Mr. Anderson said in an email that he was aware of eight severe cases of heatstroke involving N.C.A.A. football players, three of whom died.Mr. McNair’s parents founded the Jordan McNair Foundation shortly after their son’s death to educate student athletes and parents about how to recognize the symptoms of heatstroke. In their statement to ESPN, they said they wanted to honor “Jordan’s legacy so that his death was not in vain.”“No parent,” they said, “should have to wait this long for closure where their child has been treated unfairly or unjustly.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More