JADON SANCHO is likely to be the most in-demand player in the world when the transfer window re-opens this summer.
But interested clubs might want to have a re-think.
Manchester United and Chelsea are believed to be the front-runners for the winger who revealed last week that he will leave Borussia Dortmund.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is certain to undertake a post-season overhaul of his squad at Old Trafford.
Should big name players like Paul Pogba and Jesse Lingard move on, snapping up Sancho would certainly please the fans.
But in research carried out by Carteret Analytics exclusively for SunSport, it’s revealed that Sancho is WAY overpriced and instead the likes of United and Chelsea should target Jack Grealish instead.
The London-based investment company, who work closely with clubs around the world, calculate how important a player could be to a prospective team.
This takes into account how they fare compared to the current squad and how far they could influence games to a winning conclusion.
Algorithms then work out a monetary value for the players, called their “Intrinsic Value”.
WHAT IS A PLAYER’S ‘INTRINSIC VALUE’?
This is a proprietary monetary measure of the player’s objective performance. In other words, it monetises a player’s rating.
It is incredibly useful to a club because it allows them to compare a player’s intrinsic value to his market value.
For instance, if a player’s Intrinsic Value is £10m and a club is offering £20m to buy him, then this would strongly suggest that his current club should sell him.
Of course, if you are the buying club then you will also benefit enormously from an insight into what that player’s Intrinsic Value might be if he were to join the buying club.
If his Intrinsic Value for the buying club is £25m, then it suggests that a purchase price of £20m also offers good value for the buying club.
This also illustrates that a player’s Intrinsic Value can vary between clubs.
It is obvious that this should be the case because the context for valuing that player will be different at each club – the quality and performance levels of the other players at the other club, the quality and performance of the coaching staff, the ‘best fit’ analysis of that player into preferred and optimal formations at the other club, the league and league position of the other club, the player’s projected value as an intangible asset as part of the enterprise/corporate value of the other club, the cost/benefit analysis (including opportunity cost) of the other club with and without that player etc.
It reveals that Sancho does represent better Intrinsic Value for Manchester United at £65.79m than the other player in that position at Old Trafford, Lingard, who is rated at £33.54m.
But when you take into account that Sancho could cost as much as £120m, United wouldn’t appear to be getting any value for money.
Dortmund would be laughing all the way to the bank if a team does cough up a huge fee however, as the youngster’s value to the German club according to Carteret is £49.46m.
A better option would be for Ed Woodward and co to land Aston Villa star Grealish.
The quantitative analysis suggests they would be better spending around £60m on the playmaker.
By doing so, and assuming they offer a three or four year contract, they are effectively buying a player who’s true value is £82.42m rising to £91.58m.
CHELSEA CHOICES
Sancho would also be a more valuable asset to Chelsea than the current player in that position, Christian Pulisic.
His worth to the Blues is calculated at £63.05m – with Pulisic coming in at £42.27m.
But again, the outlay of £120m or more makes the purchase seem a huge risk. The Blues would also be sensible to consider Grealish as an option.
Sancho would provide a better option at Real Madrid compared to Gareth Bale, adding £29.4m more value, and also better option at Barcelona than the ageing Lionel Messi, by £14.3m.
But he wouldn’t improve what Liverpool have in their ranks – with the research revealing the European champs would do better to stick with that they have.
Mo Salah has an intrinsic value of £92.7m, with Sancho valued at £26.36m less should he opt for a switch to Anfield.
Aston Villa captain Grealish would be a better option, according to the researchCredit: Getty Images – Getty
Jadon Sancho could be heading back to the Premier League this summerCredit: EPA
Source: Soccer - thesun.co.uk
