Have you checked the N.F.L. standings lately? The Buffalo Bills are 8-3. Yes, the same Bills who were a lifeless 6-10 last year. These Bills are looking to make the playoffs for the second time since 1999. (In the 2017 season, Buffalo lost to Jacksonville in the first round.)
The New England Patriots have a lock on the A.F.C. East, as usual, but Buffalo has a two-game lead on all of its wild-card rivals with five games left to play, so the postseason seems like a sure thing.
Just how did the Bills get here? At first glance, the answer seems to be their defense. They are ranked third in the league, allowing 4.8 yards per play and 5 net yards per pass, behind only New England and San Francisco. But that’s where they ranked last year, too; they gave up an average of 4.9 yards per play.
The big difference appears to be that their offensive numbers have jumped to merely below average. The Bills are ranked 20th in net yards per pass (6.0) this season, up from 31st of the 32 teams last year at 5.2. Though that does not seem impressive, it suggests that even a modest improvement can make a considerable difference in a won-lost record.
Among passers with at least 100 attempts, Josh Allen ranks 23rd of 38 in adjusted yards per pass. Not so good? Last season, he was 37th of 41. Teams can’t win with a league-worst quarterback, but the outlook changes with a so-so quarterback who now has reliable targets.
The team signed speedster John Brown in the off-season, and he is on pace for the highest yardage and reception totals of his six-year career. Entering Week 13, Brown has 856 yards receiving and has caught 65 percent of targets, up from 43 percent last year. That has given him a figure of 9.6 yards per target, up from 7.4 (and 5.4 in 2017, when Tyrod Taylor was the quarterback).
Running backs Frank Gore and Devin Singletary have about 500 yards each, and Singletary ranks second in yards per rush with 5.8. But solid rushing numbers by themselves don’t turn a team around in the modern N.F.L.
The New York Times playoff simulator currently gives the Bills an 82 percent chance of making the postseason, a great figure for long-suffering Buffalo fans, but a surprisingly low one considering the Bills’ strong position in the standings.
The Bills occupy the first of the two A.F.C. wild-card spots. There are four teams at 6-5: the Steelers, Colts, Raiders and Titans. Two of them would have to surpass the 8-3 Bills to knock them out of the playoff picture. Could that really happen?
Indeed it could, because of the Bills’ difficult schedule over their last five games.
On Thursday, the Bills travel to Dallas, which is in an N.F.C. East dogfight with the Eagles. Dallas is favored by a touchdown. Next is a home game against the 9-2 Ravens. And two weeks later, the Bills will be big underdogs at New England.
If the Bills lose those games (hardly a far-fetched scenario), a Week 15 matchup against the Steelers in Pittsburgh looms as Buffalo’s most important. Win that and the season finale at home against the 4-7 Jets, and the Bills are in. Lose to Pittsburgh, and the Bills will need help.
The Steelers are in some disarray at quarterback — Devlin Hodges has replaced Mason Rudolph for now — but they have won five of six, and the game will be played in Pittsburgh. Sounds like a tossup.
Still, at this hour, the Bills are in the driver’s seat for the postseason. In the 2017 season, the Bills returned to the playoffs after a long absence only to eke out 3 points in a loss to the Jaguars. There were four more playoff losses (technically a Super Bowl loss counts here) before that one. One of those was the Music City Miracle. The less said to Bills fans about that, the better.
The last time the Bills actually tasted postseason victory was after the 1995 season, in a wild-card game against the Dolphins, when the quarterback matchup was Jim Kelly vs. Dan Marino.
The Patriots have made a division title almost impossible, so the Bills are likely to play a playoff game on the road against a team like the Chiefs or the Titans. Not easy, but Buffalo would have a puncher’s chance to break the drought.
And after that? The Bills came into the season with Super Bowl odds of 100-1 and have only dropped to 80-1. But for a franchise with a history of suffering, those are odds its fans will be undoubtedly happy to take.
Source: Football - nytimes.com
