HERE’S the scenario.
You’ve locked in your transfers ahead of the upcoming Gameweek and your Dream Team is looking good.
There’s just one final decision to make: which of your players to captain?
It’s not a matter to take lightly either as too many wrong selections could conceivably cost you well over a hundred points over the course of a season.
In the spirit of generosity, we’ve created a handy guide to follow when choosing your skipper.
Availability
First things first, it’s always best to ensure you’re clued up on all your players’ availability as possible.
At the most basic level, we’re talking about injuries and suspensions (Dream Team publish an article containing all the latest news prior to each Gameweek deadline) but there are other aspects to consider.
It may be that a manager hints at the need to rest one of his top stars with a view to ensuring their availability for tougher tests to follow.
Opting to double this player’s points would be sub-optimal to say the least.
Generally speaking, your captain should be someone who is almost completely immune to rotation – at least in the context of the relevant Gameweek.
Sometimes it’s worth rolling the dice on an availability risk as captain; if Erling Haaland is only a minor doubt ahead of a juicy home fixture against weakened opposition then the potential rewards may be sufficient to justify such a gamble.
However, most the time you’ll want to guarantee your skipper’s minutes before considering anything else.
Captaining a player who doesn’t even make it onto the pitch can be a real hammer blow – avoid this misfortune at all costs.
Fixtures
Next up, check how many fixtures your potential captains are set to fulfil that Gameweek.
A good player with two games at his disposal will often outscore a great player with just one fixture.
One particularly useful statistic to check in this regard is points-per-game average – displayed in the Stats Centre at all times.
For example, say you’re debating between Bukayo Saka (7.5 points-per-game average) and Pascal Gross (5.5 points-per-game average).
On a level playing field, Arsenal’s No7 is surely the superior option but if the Gunners had just one fixture in the same time Brighton had two, the German midfielder would deliver more points if the pair both performed in line with expectations.
This logic isn’t foolproof by any means as there are several other factors to consider.
In our hypothetical scenario, if Saka scored a hat-trick and Gross produced a below-par performance in their respective league games, the latter would have to pull something truly special out of the bag in his second fixture of the Gameweek to justify his status as captain.
Weighing up such probabilities is all part of the game but it pays to remember that Dream Team is often a numbers game – more fixtures usually equals more points.
It’s not just the number of fixtures you need to consider when dishing out the armband, the difficulty of your candidates’ match-ups should also be examined.
It goes without saying that a player set to face Sheffield United is more likely to bag a double-digit haul than a player of similar quality who faces a daunting trip to Anfield.
But there are levels to such analysis.
For example, say you’ve narrowed it down to Son Heung-min and Jarrod Bowen for captaincy.
Tottenham are set to host Bournemouth while West Ham are due to face Arsenal at the Emirates – surely an easy decision in favour of the South Korean forward, right?
But hang on, what if the Cherries were on a run of five games undefeated at the same time the Gunners were suffering a dip in form?
What if Bournemouth had kept three consecutive clean sheets on the road and Spurs actually boasted a better record away from North London?
What if Arsenal’s three best defenders were injured for the Hammers’ visit?
Suddenly Bowen’s match-up looks more favourable than Son’s and so perhaps the former would be more worthy of the armband.
We also advise you judge each team on their own merit.
It’s easy to group all bottom-half teams into one under the general umbrella of “favourable opponents” but dig a little deeper and the outlook changes.
Some teams are struggling because they have trouble scoring goals but such sides may boast a relatively tight defence.
Other bottom-half clubs might be conceding loads of goals but scoring a fair few of their own as well.
You may feel it’s a no-brainer to captain one of your superstar forwards when they’re up against the team 16th in the table but what if that team had the fourth-best defensive record in the league at the time?
Furthermore, some match-ups have interesting recent histories.
It’s not that uncommon for a brilliant player to have a bogey team that they consistently struggle against for whatever reason.
Applying this level of fixture analysis will lead to more captaincy points over the course of a season.
Form
It sounds obvious but many Dream Team bosses fail to fully consider form when selecting their captain.
The Stats Centre is your friend again here as it helpfully displays each player’s average point-per-game across their three most recent outings.
This will give you a strong idea of which individuals have been thriving of late without having to trawl through each player profile.
Say a fully-fit Phil Foden was about to face an relegation-threatened team with a leaky defence.
That ticks a lot of boxes in regards availability and fixture difficulty but if the Manchester City starlet had mustered just nine points from his previous four appearances that might suggest he’s not adequately prepared to take advantage of the friendly match-up.
Conversely, Foden might be on a hot scoring streak having impressed against several supposedly difficult opponents.
In this case, form should probably take preference over his fixture(s) and he would therefore make an excellent captain regards of his upcoming schedule.
Some players are capable of tapping into a degree of form that means there’s essentially no such thing as “bad fixtures” – Haaland being a prime example.
Conclusion
We understand that you may not have the time to research form guides and underlying statistics – we try to do as much of that for you as we can on a weekly basis.
Plus, there are always exceptions and freak outcomes that bamboozle even the most prepared gaffers.
If you’ve got a strong gut feeling when it comes to captaincy selection then by all means go for it – it’s just a bit of fun after all.
And the truth is it’s impossible to select the best possible captain every single Gameweek – if football was that predictable it would be boring – but hopefully you’ve picked up something useful from this guide that will increase your returns in the long run.
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Source: Soccer - thesun.co.uk