Why These Players Should Start Packing at the NBA Trade Deadline

The N.B.A. trade deadline, typically a February enterprise, is uncharacteristically competing with March Madness for the basketball public’s attention this year.

The buildup to the deadline on Thursday at 3 p.m. Eastern time has been equally untraditional. Numerous front-office executives have said that trade chatter was slower to percolate this season because they had fewer opportunities to meet face-to-face on the road while scouting college games — and especially with front offices devoting so much attention to the daily challenges of managing their rosters and adhering to Covid-19 health and safety protocols as teams play through the pandemic.

The league’s new playoff format, which gives 10 teams in each conference a shot at the playoffs rather than the longstanding norm of eight, has further muddled the marketplace, persuading more teams than usual to keep the status quo. In past years, with fewer teams in playoff contention, teams more naturally fell into place as buyers or sellers.

Yet you can safely expect the typical flurry of trades before the buzzer sounds, despite the complications, because deadline day in the modern N.B.A. is known for sparking teams into action and delivering frantic activity. No one is predicting a blockbuster deal on the level of James Harden being traded to the Nets, but there will be action. Our breakdown of what to expect:

The Headliner

With Harden already in Brooklyn, and Washington adamant it won’t consider offers for Bradley Beal until at least the off-season, there is a strong likelihood that no current All-Stars will be dealt this week.

The jockeying between Philadelphia and Miami for Toronto guard Kyle Lowry, six times an All-Star but not this season, is nonetheless significant. Thursday also happens to be Lowry’s 35th birthday, and the signals were getting stronger, as of Monday night, that a trade to the 76ers or the Heat could materialize.

The Sixers crave Lowry’s floor leadership and defensive savvy after losing out to the Nets in the Harden sweepstakes. The Heat want to team Lowry, who will be a free agent this summer, with his good friend Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in what would be a rugged three-man core of noted two-way players. The Raptors could still offer Lowry a new deal but have quietly pledged to help route him to a preferred destination if the sides agree that his long-term future lies elsewhere — provided the trade returns meaningful help for Toronto.

Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia’s promising rookie guard, is a natural target for Toronto in talks to send Lowry, a Philadelphia native, home. The Sixers, though, made Maxey untouchable in their talks with Houston for Harden in January, refusing to add him to a package that included the defensive ace Ben Simmons, a three-time All-Star. If that stance holds, it could take some creative maneuvering for Daryl Morey, Philadelphia’s president of basketball operations, to get Lowry again. In a 2009 trade as general manager of the Rockets, Morey pried the guard from Memphis in a deal he has pointed to as one of his better moves in Houston.

The Heat are trying to win the Lowry race while also keeping the veteran guard Goran Dragic and the promising second-year shooter Tyler Herro out of any deal. The success of Miami’s pursuit of Lowry could thus hinge on Toronto’s interest in a young player like the sharpshooting Duncan Robinson or the rookie Precious Achiuwa packaged with Kelly Olynyk’s $12.6 million expiring contract. The Sixers have the edge when it comes to first-round draft picks to sweeten a trade offer.

This much is clear: Toronto won’t just trade Lowry anywhere. He is considered Raptors royalty in his ninth season with the franchise and management treats him accordingly after Lowry’s pivotal contributions to Toronto’s 2018-19 championship run — and with fresh memories of the criticism for trading a devoted DeMar DeRozan to San Antonio for one season of Kawhi Leonard.

Although it might be easier, emotionally, for everyone to part ways in the off-season, Philadelphia and Miami are both in need of a forceful response to the moves of other Eastern Conference contenders. The Nets have raised the bar at the top of the East by teaming Harden with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and the Milwaukee Bucks are finally surging now, too, after their November acquisition of Jrue Holiday and last week’s addition of P.J. Tucker.

Marquee Names in Play

Houston badly wants to trade Victor Oladipo, a two-time All-Star who will become a free agent at season’s end. But with Oladipo receiving middling reviews for his play this season, and his durability in question, the Rockets face challenges in generating an encouraging return. Orlando’s Aaron Gordon and New Orleans’s Lonzo Ball, by contrast, are generating considerable interest.

While the Magic have talked to several teams about Gordon — most notably Boston — it remains unclear how willing the Pelicans are to trade Ball, even when it is widely believed that Ball is poised to attract offers in restricted free agency this summer that exceed what New Orleans is willing to spend to keep him. I reported on Friday that the Los Angeles Clippers, despite their lack of future first-round picks to offer, have been exploring potential multiteam trade scenarios to get Ball.

The Celtics and the Clippers rank as the two most desperate teams at the deadline, given the playoff expectations they carried into the season and both clubs’ recent struggles. No less an authority than Danny Ainge, Boston’s president of basketball operations, said in a February radio interview that “we don’t have a good enough team,” essentially putting public pressure on himself to do something about it.

Boston has duly pursued a variety of big men whose teams are resistant to deals: Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes, Atlanta’s John Collins and Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic. The Celtics now appear focused on Gordon, or perhaps more affordable options like Sacramento’s Nemanja Bjelica or Toronto’s Norman Powell.

The Buyout Market

Cleveland’s Andre Drummond and San Antonio’s LaMarcus Aldridge are two more former All-Stars who have been heavily shopped, but their hefty salaries make it difficult for their teams to trade them. Neither the Cavaliers nor the Spurs want to take long-term salary back in a deal. If no trade materializes in either case, Drummond ($28.75 million) and Aldridge ($24 million) could become unrestricted free agents by negotiating buyouts.

There is a growing belief around the league that the Los Angeles Lakers have an edge over the Nets to sign Drummond if he makes it to free agency, and the Heat are widely regarded as the leaders to sign Aldridge.

The Lakers only can afford to offer Drummond a minimum deal, but they have a bigger role to offer him than the Nets. After he and the Cavaliers mutually agreed a month ago that he would not play while the team sought deals, Drummond needs playing time to enhance his marketability entering free agency. That has given the Lakers confidence they can trump the offers of the Nets, who can use a $5.7 million disabled player exception from Spencer Dinwiddie’s season-ending knee injury or a $5.6 million midlevel exception left over from last off-season.

Other players who could soon reach free agency through a buyout if they are not traded in the next two days include New Orleans’s JJ Redick, Cleveland’s JaVale McGee, Memphis’ Gorgui Dieng, Sacramento’s Hassan Whiteside and the Knicks’ Austin Rivers.

Veterans Likely on the Move

Sacramento’s Bjelica, Oklahoma City’s George Hill, Detroit’s Wayne Ellington, Miami’s Olynyk, Indiana’s Aaron Holiday and the Orlando duo of Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross are all prime contenders to be moved. Hill and Minnesota’s Ricky Rubio have been mentioned frequently as secondary targets for the Clippers, after Ball.

Thunder General Manager Sam Presti has a well-known aversion to granting buyouts, so expect Hill to finish the season with the Thunder if no trade coalesces.

The Nets are working the phones to trade Dinwiddie, who is poised to become a free agent by declining his $12.3 million player option for next season because he is expected to have numerous suitors in spite of his knee injury. Trading Dinwiddie now is the surest way for the Nets to fortify their roster yet again before the playoffs and protect themselves from losing him for nothing in the off-season.

The Knicks are likewise bound to be involved in at least one deal, no matter what happens with Rivers, thanks to $15 million in cap space they carried into the season that can help facilitate trades.

The Scoop @TheSteinLine

Corner Three

You ask; I answer. Every week in this space, I’ll field three questions posed via email at marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com. Please include your first and last name, as well as the city you’re writing in from, and make sure “Corner Three” is in the subject line.

(Questions may be lightly edited or condensed for clarity.)

Q: I was curious to know if you feel like Charlotte’s recent success (before a difficult West Coast trip) and the excitement of having LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward means we’re finally turning a corner. Could this help us in free agency? Will Michael Jordan, as the Hornets’ owner, be willing to break the bank again on a proven player? — Glenn Gibson (Mount Holly, N.C.)

Stein: Glenn sent this in early last week. Then came the news on Sunday night that Ball’s sensational rookie season likely came to an abrupt end when he broke his right wrist on Saturday in a hard fall against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The turn of events was so deflating that I decided to run the letter anyway to pay tribute to the unexpected playoff bid for Charlotte that Ball was leading.

The Hornets have been one of this season’s fun surprises and, thanks largely to the drafting of Ball and the much-criticized signing of Hayward in free agency, quickly became known among NBA League Pass aficionados as the most watchable Charlotte team in decades. No one was ready to proclaim that Charlotte had suddenly become a free-agent destination after one strong half-season from Ball. Yet his arrival helped illustrate why teams relish the ability to put multiple playmakers on the floor — and why Kyle Lowry and Lonzo Ball, LaMelo’s brother, are in such high demand as Thursday’s trade deadline approaches.

Along with Terry Rozier, Ball and Hayward gave the Hornets three players who could routinely make good things happen for themselves and those around them. In the East, where the Nets, Philadelphia and Milwaukee look dangerous but conference depth is an issue, that’s enough for Charlotte to overcome a suspect frontcourt and be in playoff contention.

It’s no secret that the Hornets have been seeking a quality big man such as Indiana’s Myles Turner in the buildup to Thursday’s trade deadline. They were also one of the teams to register rebuffed interest in the Orlando All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Upgrading their frontcourt remains a priority for the Hornets, and Ball’s injury does not rule out a trade this week, but the wisest course is pursuing deals that align with Charlotte’s bright Ball-led future rather than chasing the short-term high of a playoff berth without him.

Q: I have a semantics question about how the N.B.A. views the naming of its teams. When we talk about the New York Knicks or the Brooklyn Nets or the Indiana Pacers, the first part of the team name is the city where the team plays. Is the second part — Knicks, Nets, Pacers, etc. — considered to be a team name or a team nickname? In other words, if I said that the Knicks are finally turning things around, would you say that I used the team’s name or its nickname? Given that you have a degree of access and institutional knowledge most of us don’t have, I’d very much appreciate if you could clarify this matter. — Adam Ginsburg (Toledo, Ohio)

Stein: Congratulations, Adam, on posing a question no one has ever asked me. I had to look into it on that basis alone.

The league, though, has no official policy on this, based on my checking. Semantics was a good word choice by you, because the distinction you’re seeking can’t be easily made and likely depends on the person — provided there are others who want this matter clarified.

Knicks, Nets and Pacers, which you termed nicknames, are also part of the team’s trademarked name. On the league’s official website, you can find a detailed history lesson, for example, about how the Knicks became known as the Knicks. But the word “nickname” doesn’t even appear there.

Also: We can’t even say the first part of a team always denotes the city where a team plays as long as Golden State represents a whole region.

Q: Love your newsletter, but it was “Run TMC” when the Warriors had their beautiful three-year run with Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond and Chris Mullin — not “Run DMC.” — Mitch Perry (St. Petersburg, Fla.)

Stein: Thanks for pointing out one of the most dispiriting typos in newsletter history. A week later, I’m still in a funk over it.

Numbers Game

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Entering Tuesday’s play, home teams had won both games in a two-game, baseball-style series just 15 times in 60 tries, according to data compiled by Ben Falk of the ever-handy Cleaning the Glass website. Home teams have lost both games 12 times and split the two games 33 times. This new scheduling wrinkle — designed to reduce travel amid the pandemic — so far appears to have contributed to a leaguewide erosion in home-court advantage.

.541

Playing in front of reduced crowds — and, often, mostly empty buildings for much of the season — home teams have won 54.1 percent of games this season entering Tuesday, which would represent a new single-season low. Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press reported in February that last season’s 55.1 percent was the lowest. From 2003-4 through 2018-19, according to Falk, that figure was 59.6 percent.

8

Atlanta won its first eight games after Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce as head coach but still fell six victories shy of a league record. The Nets won their first 13 games in the 2003-4 season after the rookie coach Lawrence Frank replaced the ousted Byron Scott.

34-12

Before a surprising home loss to Minnesota on Thursday night, Phoenix was on a 34-12 tear including its 8-0 record in seeding games during last summer’s N.B.A. restart at Walt Disney World near Orlando, Fla. That run also includes an 18-4 stretch going into the Minnesota loss. The Suns, at a surprising No. 2 in the West, are in line for their first playoff berth in 11 seasons.

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If you are prepared to write the Suns into the playoffs now, like us, that leaves Sacramento with the league’s only double-digit playoff drought, which appears headed to reach a 15th consecutive season. The Knicks are on course to end the league’s third-longest current drought after seven straight nonplayoff seasons.

Hit me up anytime on Twitter (@TheSteinLine) or Facebook (@MarcSteinNBA) or Instagram (@thesteinline). Send any other feedback to marcstein-newsletter@nytimes.com.