Seventeen weeks of preamble led to this. Eight N.F.L. teams will fight for a chance to move on from a wild-card round that features the winners of the last three Super Bowls and that has one game in which the road team is favored.
Here are our predictions for how the games will sort out, with all picks made against the spread.
Last week’s record against the spread: 10-6
Final regular-season record: 136-115-5
Saturday
No. 5 Bills at No. 4 Texans, 4:35 p.m., ABC and ESPN
Line: Texans -3 | Total: 43
It is hardly a surprise that this game ended up in the Saturday afternoon time slot: The Texans (10-6) have been relegated to that position in each of the franchise’s six playoff appearances; the Bills (10-6) are decades removed from being one of the game’s elite teams. But anyone who skips this game could miss a grudge match between an exciting offense and an underrated defense.
The Texans’ offense did not have an impressive year statistically, but when things are right for them, quarterback Deshaun Watson can put on a terrific show by challenging secondaries with deep passes to wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. And a no-frills running game led by Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson and Watson can chew up the clock.
Houston, however, had mixed results against elite secondaries in 2019. It beat the Patriots in Week 13, thanks to Watson’s throwing three touchdown passes and catching a fourth (thrown by Hopkins), but it was demolished by Baltimore in Week 11, with Watson throwing for only 169 yards (and giving 49 yards back on sacks).
Buffalo is ranked just below those teams in pass defense efficiency, according to Football Outsiders, and that may make it difficult for Watson to put up huge numbers. A low-scoring affair that turns into a running battle would benefit Buffalo, as its offense succeeds mostly by pounding the ball on the ground and relying on quarterback Josh Allen to make few mistakes and the occasional big play.
The teams are evenly matched, and while Houston’s home-field advantage makes it a worthy favorite, there is potential for an upset. Pick: Texans -3
No. 6 Titans at No. 3 Patriots, 8:15 p.m., CBS
Line: Patriots -5 | Total: 44.5
The Patriots had one of the more confusing 12-4 seasons in memory. They feasted on bad teams, going 9-1 against clubs with a record of .500 or worse while going 3-3 against winning teams — with each of the three wins being decided by one score.
In the Patriots’ three biggest tests — Week 9 at Baltimore, Week 14 against Kansas City and Week 17 against Miami (with a first-round bye on the line) — they fell flat and lost each time.
The first chance for Tom Brady to flip a switch and turn his team back into a juggernaut will come against the upstart Titans (9-7), who became contenders after a surprising switch to quarterback Ryan Tannehill midway through Week 6. Mocked often in his six-year run as the starter in Miami, Tannehill came to Tennessee as a backup for Marcus Mariota last off-season and proceeded to complete 70.3 percent of his passes while leading the N.F.L. in passer rating and yards per attempt.
In an offense designed by Arthur Smith, Tannehill’s efficiency and wide receiver A.J. Brown’s explosiveness served as a perfect counterbalance to Derrick Henry, who led the N.F.L. in rushing while setting career highs in virtually every category. Amusingly enough, poor weather, caused by a winter storm named Henry, could lead to the game being decided by running backs, which would dramatically favor Tennessee.
New England’s home-field advantage is still a huge factor, as is its playoff experience. But the Patriots haven’t played a wild-card round game since 2009 (they lost that game), which should drive home that this is not your typical Brady-led team. The Patriots are vulnerable to an upset, which might look shocking on paper, but actually would not be surprising at all. Pick: Titans +5
Sunday
No. 6 Vikings at No. 3 Saints, 1:05 p.m., Fox
Line: Saints -7.5 | Total: 50
If the N.F.C. were split into tiers, the Saints (13-3) would be in the top one, alongside San Francisco and Green Bay. Unfortunately for the Saints, a tiebreaker sent them into the wild-card round.
As a result, three of the weekend’s four games are evenly matched, but this one is a potential blowout. The Saints, powered by a high-octane offense and a good enough defense, lost just twice at home this season, and one of those losses — Week 14 against San Francisco — came down to the final play. The Vikings (10-6) were 4-4 on the road.
Running back Dalvin Cook was able to practice this week, which is good news for Minnesota. The team is at its best when Cook is wreaking havoc out of the backfield. It allows quarterback Kirk Cousins to pick his spots with wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
But the Vikings’ offensive output may not matter if Drew Brees and the Saints have their typical game. New Orleans broke the 30-point barrier 11 times this season, and topped 40 twice.
It was only two seasons ago that the Vikings upset New Orleans in the divisional around — thanks to a catch by Diggs that will live forever — but that game was in Minnesota. This one is in New Orleans, and for it to even be close would be surprising. Pick: Saints -7.5
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 4 Eagles, 4:40 p.m., NBC
Line: Seahawks -1.5 | Total: 45
Injuries to the team’s top three running backs had the Seahawks (11-5) all but counted out in advance of a vital Week 17 matchup with San Francisco. Thanks to a group effort led by the rookie Travis Homer and the unretired Marshawn Lynch, Seattle nearly won.
There’s no such thing as a moral victory in the N.F.L., and tight end Jacob Hollister’s landing around an inch short of a touchdown resulted in the Seahawks’ having to play on the road in the wild-card round. But if there was a positive takeaway from that game, it would be that Seattle’s offense can succeed just fine even without Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny.
The Eagles (9-7) know a thing or two about playing through injuries. Quarterback Carson Wentz is the first quarterback in N.F.L. history to pass for 4,000 yards while not having a single wide receiver surpass 500 (two tight ends and a running back eclipsed that mark). He had to cobble together an offense despite the fact that his top three receivers and his top two running backs missed time, yet Philadelphia still managed to overtake Dallas for the N.F.C. East crown.
This weekend will be more of the same. The Eagles are hoping tight end Zach Ertz and running back Miles Sanders will be able to return from injuries, but neither player is certain. Nor is right tackle Lane Johnson, which would be a devastating loss for Philadelphia if Seattle’s Jadeveon Clowney is able to play through a core injury.
The Seahawks are not the defensive powerhouse they once were, even with Clowney on the field, but an offense led by Russell Wilson is good enough that they should be able to get through to the divisional round. Pick: Seahawks -1.5
First-round byes: Baltimore, Kansas City, San Francisco, Green Bay
All times are Eastern.
Source: Football - nytimes.com
