For the last eight weeks, our N.F.L. playoff simulator has explored every possible scenario, letting fans daydream about improbable outcomes like the Browns making the playoffs or the Buffalo Bills getting a bye week.
Normally, there are so many ways a season can end that we use very large numbers to describe them. But now, with two weeks remaining, the postseason possibilities have winnowed enough that we can depict each team’s possible postseason paths as the branches of a tree.
We’ve included the trees for every team not yet mathematically eliminated. Some teams’ trees are relatively tidy, while others are wildly convoluted, and we hope they bring you joy. (We did not include ties, which exponentially increase the charts’ complexity.)
We’ll update this page throughout the games Saturday and Sunday.
AFC East
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
The Patriots are on top of the A.F.C. East and appear likely to win their 11th consecutive division title. They are up a game on the Bills and could even afford to lose to them in Week 16, so long as they beat the lowly Dolphins to finish the season.
The No. 2 seed is the likeliest outcome for the Patriots, but if they win out and the Ravens lose out, the No. 1 seed is possible.
The nightmare scenario, unlikely as it is, involves the Patriots letting the division slip out of their hands — ceding the title to the Bills, who end the season at 12-4 — and entering the playoffs as a wild card at No. 5.
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Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: No. 5
The Bills are in the playoffs and appear destined for the No. 5 seed.
A division title — and even a bye week — remain possible. Those possibilities start with a Week 16 win at the 11-3 New England Patriots.
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AFC North
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Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Browns are technically alive. But they need a highly improbable series of events to make the playoffs, above and beyond winning their remaining games. Worse, they face the 12-2 Ravens in Week 16.
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AFC South
Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Houston Texans (9-5) are almost assured of a playoff berth. A win in either of their next two games would guarantee a division title. A Steelers loss or Titans loss would also guarantee a playoff berth, either as a wild card or division champion, respectively.
The Texans technically have a path to a bye week and the No. 2 seed, but it isn’t very realistic.
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Best possible outcome: No. 3
Worst possible outcome: Out
Our simulator suggests the Titans have about a 50-50 chance at making the playoffs, but they have two difficult games to end the season, hosting the Saints and visiting the division-leading Texans.
Their best-case scenario in Week 16 is a win and a Steelers loss.
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AFC West
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 4
The Chiefs are in the playoffs and can do no worse than the No. 4 seed, hosting the No. 5 seed — probably the Bills — in the wild-card round. Even with a win in Week 16 against the middling Chicago Bears, the Chiefs could still finish with any of the top four seeds depending on the results of other games.
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Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
The convoluted look of the Raiders’ playoff tree is proof of how slim their path to the playoffs really is. At 6-8, they are mathematically alive. But even if they win their remaining games, an 8-8 record is almost surely not enough to get a wild-card berth. But it is possible. Here’s how.
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Best possible outcome: XXXXXX
Worst possible outcome: XXXX
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NFC East
Best possible outcome: No. 4
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Cowboys have two games remaining, but one matters much more than the other. A win Sunday against the Eagles would guarantee a division title and the playoff berth that comes with it. The best and only N.F.C. seed the Cowboys can hope for is No. 4, hosting the No. 5 seed — probably Seattle or San Francisco — during wild-card weekend.
If the Cowboys lose to the Eagles, they can still advance if they win and the Eagles lose in Week 17.
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Best possible outcome: No. 4
Worst possible outcome: Out
Like the Cowboys, the Eagles have just one route to the playoffs: as a division champion, which would earn them the No. 4 seed. They must beat the Cowboys in Week 16 to have a chance. If they do so, they are in the driver’s seat. A loss against the Cowboys eliminates the Eagles.
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NFC North
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 6
The Packers are in the playoffs, and winning out would guarantee at least a bye week. But they can also fall as far as the No. 6 seed if they lose their remaining games. A win in either of their remaining games clinches the N.F.C. North.
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Best possible outcome: No. 2
Worst possible outcome: Out
A range of possibilities remains open for the Vikings, including the slim possibility of missing the playoffs at 10-6.
A win in either remaining game clinches a playoff berth.
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NFC South
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 3
The New Orleans Saints (11-3) have won the N.F.C. South and have secured a playoff berth, but they need help to get a bye week. In Week 16, losses by the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers are good for the Saints.
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NFC West
Best possible outcome: No. 1
Worst possible outcome: No. 6
The 49ers are in the playoffs, but they could enter the playoffs at very different perches depending on the outcomes of Weeks 16 and 17.
On one hand, a No. 1 seed — with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs — remains a real possibility. But they could also finish 11-5 and enter the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, with no bye week and playing all their games on the road.
In either circumstance, their most important game is in Week 17, in what is shaping up to be the championship game of the N.F.C. West.
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Best possible outcome: No. 1 seed
Worst possible outcome: No. 6 seed
The Seahawks are in a somewhat bizarre position for a team atop the N.F.C: If they win out, there is no guarantee they will stay the top seed. Three other teams — the 49ers, Saints and Packers — share the Seahawks’ 11-3 record.
With so many options remaining, these trees may be too big to be helpful for Seahawks fans; our playoff simulator may provide more clarity.
By far the most important game remaining for the Seahawks is in Week 17, when they play the 49ers, in what is likely to be a division championship game. Saints and Packers losses in Week 16 also help the Seahawks.
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Best possible outcome: No. 6
Worst possible outcome: Out
The Los Angeles Rams (8-6) have a slim path to the playoffs, and even a 10-6 record would not make a berth likely. They need help in the form of two Vikings losses to get the No. 6 seed. If that happened, three of the four teams from the N.F.C. West would make the playoffs.
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Source: Football - nytimes.com
