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      Josh Allen Joined the NFL's Elite. Next Up? Staying There.

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      ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Josh Allen recorded the greatest season by a quarterback in Buffalo Bills history. He powered the team to its first A.F.C. championship game in nearly three decades, and after losing to Kansas City, he left Arrowhead Stadium that January night knowing the Bills would be back.Allen allowed himself a few weeks to decompress from the longest, best and most disappointing year of his young career, and when he was done, a week or two into February, he visited a sock company. There, on the basketball court at Stance headquarters in Southern California, Allen set about refining what his personal quarterback coach, Jordan Palmer, characterized as a “very, very specific” mechanical inefficiency.Allen, 25, loves nerding out on his mechanics, or, really, anything that he thinks can accelerate his development. Of all the traits that enticed the Bills to trade up to draft him out of the University of Wyoming in 2018, beyond physical gifts and a capacity for distilling reams of information into essential shards, paramount was how Allen married a desire to improve with an aptitude for doing so.He spent his childhood on a ranch in California’s flat and fertile Central Valley, and as with the crops his family raises, he didn’t need to see immediate returns. If he worked hard, and with purpose, he knew the results would come.“Some guys have those incredible years, and then that’s who they are,” one such guy, the Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner — who won the league’s Most Valuable Player Award in his first season as a starter — said in a telephone interview. Now an analyst for NFL Network, Warner added: “And other guys just do it that once, and they never quite capture it again. I hope this is who Josh is the rest of his career, but I did not see this coming. I did not know he was capable of it.”Allen’s incredible year — 4,544 passing yards, 46 total touchdowns, second place in the M.V.P. balloting — thrust him into the N.F.L.’s upper echelon. It also, in August, enriched him with a six-year contract extension that tethers him to Buffalo through 2028, an investment in his future with implicit expectations.Allen built himself into a top quarterback for a team constructed to contend for the Super Bowl title that his distinguished forebears of the 1990s could not win. Two games into this season, the central question for the Bills (1-1) is no longer whether they can make the playoffs, but whether they can remain among the N.F.L.’s elite. The answer depends on Allen.Buffalo fans traveled to Miami to see Allen and the Bills thrash the Dolphins, 35-0, in Week 2.Doug Murray/Associated Press“I think there’s two kinds of players in this league: guys that get figured out and guys that figure it out,” Allen said in an interview after a recent practice. “And I was always going to be the guy who figured it out.”Allen’s evolution to this lofty moment toppled a principle of football doctrine: that quarterbacks can’t enhance their accuracy. After selecting Allen in 2018, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane was told that he had just taken a tight end. He knew otherwise.At his job interview the year before, after Buffalo’s 16th consecutive season without making the playoffs, Beane noted that the New England Patriots dynasty had been sustained in part by their three fellow A.F.C. East teams, which regularly changed coaches and front offices.Unseating the Patriots, he said, demanded time and patience, and as he scouted quarterback prospects before the draft he resolved to invest both in Allen.On the farmstead where Allen grew up in Firebaugh, Calif., a small community about 40 miles northwest of Fresno, his family has long nurtured cantaloupe, cotton and wheat — and, more recently, pistachios. Much like Allen himself, their trees need years of cultivation before producing a yield. Allen’s progression from imprecise college quarterback to N.F.L. star took an honest assessment of the transformation he required.“When you lie to yourself, the only person you hurt is yourself,” Allen said. “Being completely honest and understanding that there’s things I need to work on, I’m not afraid to reach out and ask somebody for help.”Rarely does a quarterback improve by vast margins, as Allen did, in his third season.The best predictor of a third-year eruption, according to a May 2020 study by Pro Football Focus, is a proclivity for completing passes. At Wyoming, Allen had connected on a meager 56.2 percentage of his throws, and in his first two seasons in Buffalo, he rated last in the league.To better evaluate Allen, Beane needed to protect him, so in 2019 he signed offensive linemen Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano in free agency. He bolstered the receiving corps, too, adding Cole Beasley in 2019 and, in a trade with Minnesota in 2020, Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. last season in yards and receptions.“We just feel like, as he’s learned to not try and do too much, if I give him weapons, he won’t feel like he’s got to try and put the team on his back,” Beane said of Allen. “He’ll let these guys make plays.”After reworking his delivery before the 2020 season, Allen found the newly acquired receiver Stefon Diggs often. Diggs led the league in receiving yards and receptions last season.Libby March for The New York TimesAllen could do that because he had reworked his delivery, with the guidance of Palmer and Bills coaches, concentrating each off-season on a single objective: widening his stance, for example, or commanding his off-speed passes. Concentrating on the fundamental components of his motion enabled him to throw more accurately, to any spot on the field, than he ever had. So did offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s preference for calling pass plays on first down, when opposing personnel generally must guard against the run.Never before, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, had any quarterback across a three-season span raised his completion rate as much as Allen did: His jump to 69.2 percent from 52.8 exceeded the previous biggest increase — Jim Zorn’s 15 percentage points with the Seattle Seahawks from 1977 to ’79.After that overhaul, the 38-24 loss to the Chiefs in the A.F.C. championship game demonstrated the Bills’ proximity to being the best team in the league. Over the off-season, they added Emmanuel Sanders, long coveted by Beane, and re-signed two starting offensive linemen. Allen, for his part, recognized that he was no longer in reconstruction mode. His challenge now is to refine what he has done and to nudge the Bills a little deeper this season.Allen, though, is not a nudger. Among the traits that distinguish great quarterbacks from the merely good is situational awareness, and Palmer has discussed with him at length the importance of controlling emotions at climactic junctures, of making prudent choices when the impulse to go all YOLO tugs hard. And after “making the most consecutive good decisions I’ve ever made” last season, Allen said, it’s imperative that he doesn’t get bored with what he called “the easy stuff” — throwing two- or three-yard passes, or flinging the ball out of bounds instead of forcing a bad throw.For the last year and a half, Allen has also worked with a biomechanics expert, Chris Hess, who at various stages of the off-season has gauged Allen’s functional movement and, using 3-D motion capture analysis, digitally mapped his throwing motion. At first, Hess didn’t think Allen was engaged. For every assessment Hess relayed, Allen offered a monosyllabic response. Two weeks later, Hess re-evaluated him, and he was stunned to discover that Allen had retained everything.“I wasn’t moving fast enough for him,” Hess said. “He processes so quick, but he can filter it, too, and be like, ‘That’s important to me.’”Allen wanted to address what his left foot did when he hitched, or bounced forward in the pocket at the end of his drop back, on certain routes — overs from the left and digs from the right. The flaw inhibited his ability to maintain control through the release of the ball. Before he could try new footwork on the field, he needed to retrain his patterns, and the smooth surface of the court at Stance helped Allen do so without sliding.“Whether I’m throwing 30 times a game or three times a game, if I throw three times, I better have made three right decisions on where the ball should be,” Allen said.Sam Navarro/USA Today Sports, via ReutersIn Hess’s experience, quarterbacks typically don’t improve their mechanical efficiency during the season, either because they revert to old motor patterns or they compensate for various ailments that arise. But Allen did in 2020, helping him start from a more advanced place this off-season, when he focused on building lower-body strength and mobility.In a boardroom in New Jersey this month, Hess cued up on a smart television side-by-side images of Allen from the past two Julys, and the difference was stark: Allen became balanced, stable, no longer listing forward as he threw.Standing in a tunnel beneath Highmark Stadium just before the season began, Allen mentioned how attuned he felt — to expectations, his body, his responsibilities.“It’s not about me,” Allen said. “Whether I’m throwing 30 times a game or three times a game, if I throw three times, I better have made three right decisions on where the ball should be.”Allen, though, hasn’t made entirely right decisions so far. After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, he suggested he was struggling with his footwork, and despite rebounding to thrash Miami in Week 2, Allen still committed what Pro Football Focus calls turnover-worthy plays — involving poor ball security or passes that have a strong chance of being intercepted — on a career-high 10.8 percent of his snaps.Every snap he takes still seems to generate a greater range of outcomes than a Choose Your Own Adventure novel, and maybe that will never completely change. But week after week, the best quarterbacks are not those who dominate the highlights. They’re the ones who think fast, make smart throws and don’t commit turnovers. Allen can do that — has done that — and if he can do it consistently, then the longest, best, most gratifying season in Bills history might lie just ahead. More

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      N.F.L. Week 3 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      The Panthers look to keep the sack crown against the Texans, the Bucs and Rams preview a potential N.F.C. championship matchup, and Aaron Rodgers will try to keep the good vibes going against the 49ers.Are you not entertained?Four of the six prime time games in this young N.F.L. season were decided by one score. Lamar Jackson’s plunge to convert a fourth down and seal Baltimore’s win over Kansas City capped Week 2. Most teams that lost in Week 1 fought back to .500, but the weekend yielded a long list of injuries with at least four starting quarterbacks having either been ruled out or questionable to play in Week 3.That means that divisional rivals will try to eke out an edge in the early standings, a slew of replacement quarterbacks will try to prove their worth and a potential N.F.C. championship preview will be on display in Los Angeles.Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 3, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 7-9All times Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday Night’s GameSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday Night’s MatchupThursday Night’s GameCarolina Panthers at Houston Texans, 8:20 p.m. NFL NetworkLine: Panthers -7.5 | Total: 43.5With Tyrod Taylor recovering from a hamstring injury and Deshaun Watson still designated to the bench, Texans Coach David Culley said the rookie Davis Mills will start against the Panthers (2-0). Mills, a third-round draft pick out of Stanford for the Texans (1-1) this spring, will face a young Panthers defense that leads the league in sacks (10) through two weeks (although six came against a meager Jets offensive line in Week 1).In both their wins this season, the Panthers began the third quarter with a double-digit lead, fueled by Sam Darnold’s budding connection with his new receivers. If the early offensive output continues and the Texans struggle with a new quarterback, expect the Panthers to cover the spread easily. Pick: Panthers -7.5Sunday’s Best GamesMatthew Stafford and the Rams will try to test a Buccaneers secondary thinned by injuries.Zach Bolinger/Associated PressTampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -1 | Total: 55A battle between undefeated teams makes predicting this outcome the toughest choice of the week. Both the Rams (2-0) and the Buccaneers (2-0) rank in the top 10 in passing yards and top five in passing touchdowns.But the Bucs’ secondary is young and has struggled with injuries, so the team reached out to the veteran free agent cornerback Richard Sherman after placing starter Sean Murphy-Bunting on injured reserve. Rams Coach Sean McVay will look to have Matthew Stafford unload downfield, and that aggression against a secondary in flux may be just enough for the Rams to win. Pick: Rams +1Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Kansas City -6.5 | Total: 55.5404 yards. That’s the amount of rushing yardage Kansas City’s defense has surrendered through two games. That’s … not good. But the Chargers (1-1) are a pass-first team, as evinced by Justin Herbert tying Mahomes and Dan Marino for the most 300-yard passing games through a player’s first two seasons (10). Herbert could break that record Sunday against Kansas City (1-1).That’s doable based on his two performances against Kansas City last season, the first an overtime loss in which Herbert threw for 311 yards and a touchdown and earned the starting job. (Herbert had 302 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 17 win in which Kansas City rested some starters.) If Los Angeles’ running backs can at least keep the Chiefs honest, the Chargers will be able to at least keep this one close. Pick: Chargers +6.5Derrick Henry ran for 182 yards and two fourth-quarter touchdowns in the Titans’ overtime win in Seattle last week. Ben Vanhouten/Associated PressIndianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -5 | Total: 48Carson Wentz’s sprained ankles (yes, both ankles) mean the Colts (0-2) could potentially start Jacob Eason, a second-year quarterback, against Tennessee. Eason’s margin for error will be small against the Titans (1-1), who are coming off an overtime win in Seattle where Derrick Henry’s 182 rushing yards on 35 carries reminded everyone how effective Tennessee is at clock control.The strength of Indianapolis’ defense is its defensive lineman and linebackers, who could frustrate Tennessee’s rushing attack, but Eason’s inexperience could lead to turnovers and give Henry more opportunity to score. Pick: Titans -5Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 48The Packers (1-1) and San Francisco (2-0) use similar offensive strategies that rely on motion and a strong running game to set up the pass. The 49ers’ running back room, though, has been decimated by injuries, most recently with JaMycal Hasty ruled out with a high ankle sprain and Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (concussion), questionable for Sunday night.Both teams allowed the Lions to play competitive first halves before pulling away. Now facing each other, if the 49ers’ rotating cast of running backs starts slow, the healthy Packers roster could take advantage. Pick: Packers + 3.5New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 41.5Who dat? Saints fans must be asking themselves that question after a shellacking last week at Carolina, where running back Alvin Kamara was limited to only 32 all-purpose yards and Jameis Winston threw two interceptions.The Patriots’ defense is more experienced than Carolina’s, and could find similar success against a Saints (1-1) team trying to find its new identity in the post-Drew Brees era. The Patriots and Coach Bill Belichick may have fans asking more questions afterward. Pick: Patriots -3Seattle Seahawks at Minneapolis Vikings, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2 | Total: 55Two games, two close finishes.The Vikings (0-2) have played competitively so far this season, and could easily be 2-0. They face a Seahawks (1-1) defense that allowed the Titans to score 21 second-half points en route to a Tennessee victory in Week 2. Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins have thrown for more than 240 yards in each of their games and if both Minnesota and Seattle play to form, this game will be a shoot out. That gives the Vikings hope to at least cover the spread. Pick: Vikings +2Sunday’s Other GamesThe Bears’ rookie Justin Fields will make his first career start against the Browns on Sunday.Jeff Haynes/Associated PressChicago Bears at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Browns -7.5 | Total: 46.5Bears fans finally got what they cheered for.After quarterback Andy Dalton injured his knee on a scramble last week, Coach Matt Nagy said the rookie Justin Fields will start Sunday against the Browns (1-1). Excitement over Fields dominated training camp and the preseason, and he could slide in as starter for the Bears (1-1).He’ll need to play well to match the Browns, who have scored at least 28 points in their first two games. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry must miss at least three games on injured reserve with a knee injury, and Odell Beckham’s status is still unclear as he continues to recover from knee surgery. Still, the Browns’ defense could fluster a rookie quarterback into a mistake or two. Pick: Browns -7.5Atlanta Falcons at Giants, 1 p.m., FOXLine: Giants -3 | Total: 48.5If Saquon Barkley’s limited production through the first two weeks (83 rushing yards on 23 carries) continues, then Daniel Jones may find success against the Falcons (0-2), whose defense has allowed eight passing touchdowns. Jones must continue to protect the ball, as he did last week, and his receivers cannot drop touchdowns, as Darius Slayton did last week against Washington.Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has already thrown three interceptions and it’s clear that the Falcons are in rebuilding mode. The Giants (0-2), while still winless, are hoping to compete in the N.F.C. East so it’s reasonable to think they’ll be fired up to get a win at home. But considering the Giants’ unpredictability with mistakes and penalties, the Falcons could at least make this one competitive. Pick: Falcons +3Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -7.5 | Total: 52Winning in the N.F.L. is hard. It is unlikely that the first-time N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer and the rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence — two men who rarely lost in college — will find it any easier to get their first N.F.L. win against the Cardinals (2-0).Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray has made an early case for the Most Valuable Player Award, ranking second in total passing yards (689) and touchdowns (7). His aerial onslaught should continue against the Jaguars (0-2) whose defense has allowed nearly 300 passing yards in each of their first two games. The Jaguars’ team Twitter account this week posted a message from Meyer that promised, “we’re going to get better.” He didn’t say it’d be this week. Pick: Cardinals -7.5Washington Footballers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Bills -10 | Total: 45.5This isn’t the Giants’ defense that Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke torched for 336 yards. Heinicke and the Football Team (1-1) will collide with a Buffalo defense that has not allowed an opposing team to throw for 200 yards. Against the Bills (1-1) and Josh Allen, Washington will struggle to keep pace on the scoreboard. Pick: Bills -10Jets at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -11 | Total: 41.5The Jets (0-2) never expected Zach Wilson to be perfect as a rookie. His growing pains most likely will continue against the Broncos (2-0), whose defense is just as good, if not better, than the New England Patriots’ unit to whom Wilson threw four interceptions last week. Denver linebackers Josey Jewell and Bradley Chubb are on the injured reserve list after injuries this week, and those losses may hurt the team later as it pushes to contend in the A.F.C. West. But against the Jets, Coach Vic Fangio can manage with what he has to rattle Wilson. Pick: Broncos -11Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Ravens-10 | Total: 50Two strong first-half starts for Detroit (0-2) fizzled as quarterback Jared Goff committed crucial turnovers in the team’s two losses. The Lions will meet a Ravens (1-1) defense that’s on the upswing after limiting Kansas City last week and escaping with the win. The young Lions’ defense has often faltered after Goff’s mistakes and if that continues Baltimore can run up the score early. Pick: Ravens -10Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -4.5 | Total: 44.5The Steelers’ (1-1) struggles against the Raiders last week could be amplified in an A.F.C. North rivalry game against the Bengals (1-1). Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is questionable to play with a pectoral injury, and the availability of defensive starters like linebackers T.J. Watt and Devin Bush and cornerback Joe Haden is also questionable for Sunday.Pittsburgh could use a break but Cincinnati’s defense stiffened against the Bears last week in a tight 20-17 loss, even as quarterback Joe Burrow threw three interceptions. Burrow may also be without receiver Tee Higgins, who injured his shoulder last Sunday and is day to day. But another strong performance and a deep ball from Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase could help the Bengals upset an injury-laden Steelers roster. Pick: Cincinnati +4.5Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby has 10 quarterback hits and two sacks — including this takedown of Ben Roethlisberger during Las Vegas’ win last week in Pittsburgh — through two games this season.Philip G. Pavely/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMiami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m., CBSLine: Raiders -4 | Total: 45.5Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s rib injury adds to a series of problems for the Dolphins (1-1). Through two games, the offensive line has allowed eight sacks, the fourth most in the league. Coach Brian Flores said backup Jacoby Brissett will start, but it is unlikely that he will emerge unscathed from facing a Raiders (2-0) defensive line that features Maxx Crosby, who has 10 quarterback hits and two sacks so far this season.Raiders Coach Jon Gruden said quarterback Derek Carr and running back Josh Jacobs are questionable with ankle and toe injuries, though he expects Carr to play. But the Raiders’ defensive pressure can compensate for the offensive struggles. Pick: Raiders -4Monday Night’s MatchupPhiladelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Cowboys -4 | Total: 51.5Jalen Hurts faces a Dallas Cowboys defense that is still tinkering with its lineup because injuries forced defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to come up with a new scheme. Dallas (1-1) allowed Justin Herbert to throw for 338 yards last week as rookie linebacker Micah Parsons shifted to defensive end to replace DeMarcus Lawrence, who will miss at least six weeks with an ankle injury. Dallas expects defensive end Randy Gregory to return from the Covid list, and that may be enough to pressure Hurts. But Dallas’ secondary is still weak, and the Eagles’ offense could score enough to at least cover the spread. Pick: Eagles +4How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Steelers -4.5, for example, means that Pittsburgh must beat Cincinnati by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      Will the 49ers Contend if They Just Get Healthy?

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      After an improbably injury-riddled 2020, 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan’s disaster-proof offense is back on track.There’s nothing quite as gripping as a post-apocalyptic adventure like “The Walking Dead,” “The Road,” “Y: The Last Man” or the 2021 San Francisco 49ers.The 49ers reached the Super Bowl in the 2019 season but lived through an extinction-level injury cataclysm in 2020. They lost Pro Bowl pass rushers Dee Ford (neck, back) for 15 games and Nick Bosa (knee) for 14. The All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) for 11, the All-Pro tight end George Kittle (knee, foot) for eight, their top wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, (foot, hamstring, Covid-19) for nine, plus various other starters on both sides of the ball for large chunks of the year.Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) also missed 10 games; the fact that he does not receive top billing on their injury roll call is telling on a variety of levels.According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers lost the equivalent of 166.6 games by starters to injuries, the second-highest total for an N.F.L. team over the past 20 years. That’s like losing 10 starters — nearly half of a 22-man offensive and defensive lineup — for an entire season. Covid-related absences increased “injury” rates across the league last year, but the 49ers still led the N.F.L. in players unavailable for health reasons by over 30 games. The team’s few survivors staggered to a 6-10 finish.One year later, nearly all of the 49ers’ irreplaceable stars are healthy and back on the field, as is Garoppolo. The 49ers have started the 2021 season with narrow-but-still-convincing victories over the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. Samuel leads the N.F.L. with 282 receiving yards. Bosa has recorded three sacks. Kittle and Ford are once again playing at a high level. And Garoppolo has resumed his role as the person who sits behind the wheel of the self-driving car and makes sure that nothing malfunctions.The 49ers are designed to be more disaster-proof than most teams, which made their 2020 collapse all the more frustrating. Shanahan’s offense emphasizes short passes to receivers who specialize in racing or rumbling for big gains after the catch; hence Garoppolo’s reputation as more of a desk clerk than a game manager. Running backs are also replaceable cogs in Shanahan’s machine. The 49ers could have operated effectively last season without some combination of Garoppolo, Kittle, Samuel, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who was a 2020 first-round pick, and the top running backs Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. In several games last season, including their 34-17 loss to the Green Bay Packers (this week’s opponent), they were without all of those players.Similarly, the 49ers defensive line for 2020 was slated to feature five past first-round picks, including Bosa and Ford: Four starters and a spare tire in case of a flat. But Arik Armstead was the only 49ers lineman to start all 16 games. As a result, the team’s sack total dropped from 48 in 2019 to 30 last year. Under the circumstances, six wins were a remarkable feat for Shanahan and his staff.Not all of the important figures from the 2019 Super Bowl campaign returned this year. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s experience desperately assembling a semi-functional roster out of rookies and leftovers made him overwhelmingly qualified for the Jets’ head coaching job. Sherman was not re-signed after last season; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are reportedly interested in adding him for their Super Bowl victory lap.The rookie running back Elijah Mitchell rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener, when he replaced Raheem Mostert, who is out for the season.Leon Halip/Getty ImagesThe 49ers have also not completely avoided injuries so far in 2021, though it’s naïve to think that any football team could. Cornerback Jason Verrett, who missed nearly all of the 2016 through 2019 seasons with a battery of injuries, tore his anterior cruciate ligament in Week 1. Verrett, oddly enough, was one of the team’s healthiest players last year. Mostert is also lost for the season, but San Francisco stocked up on reinforcements like the rookie Elijah Mitchell, who rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener.Speaking of reinforcements, the 49ers traded up in the draft this spring to select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance with the third overall pick. Lance’s arrival suggested that Shanahan was seeking more than push-button management at the position, but also signaled the organization’s confidence that the team would get better simply by getting healthier. That has proved true so far.A few changes aside, the 49ers are playing well with a starting lineup that looks a lot like their 2019 Super Bowl lineup/2020 injured reserve list, while Lance has been limited to gadget-play duties.Football Outsiders’ research suggests that there’s a meaningful year-to-year correlation in a team’s injury rate. That’s bad news for the 49ers, who have finished in the top half of the league in games lost to injuries for eight straight seasons. The good news is that last season’s injury rate was so catastrophically high that some regression toward the N.F.L. average is nearly inevitable, according to the tenets of central tendency. Things simply must get better. If they don’t, at least the immensely talented Lance is equipped to survive a “Mad Max” scenario while the 49ers sift through the rubble and try to rebuild.Despite their early-season wins, the 49ers appear to be a notch below contenders like the Buccaneers. The Packers game on Sunday will provide their only true test against a playoff-caliber opponent, before the team embarks on divisional matchups in the N.F.C. West, an unforgiving environment for a team with glaring weaknesses. Another 49ers Super Bowl run may have to wait until Lance is ready to replace Garoppolo and switch Shanahan’s offense out of autopilot.But post-apocalyptic fiction is more about survival than success, perseverance than triumph. The 49ers have done a fine job so far of putting 2020 behind them and returning to as close to normal as possible. That doesn’t make them champions. But it certainly makes them relatable. More

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      Are the Jets and Giants Watchable Yet?

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      We enlisted two experts — one locally focused, one nationally — to offer readers their opinions.This season, we’ve enlisted two experts — one familiar with the ins and outs of New York’s football teams, the other a nationally focused football analyst — to answer an essential question as a service to readers: Are these teams good yet?GiantsThe Giants lost Thursday night’s game against the Washington Football Team, 30-29.Insider’s perspectiveLook, winning is great, but for sports fans who want a more robust flavor profile with their raw W’s and L’s, there is a superior experience: The young frisky team right on the cusp of being on the cusp. Still fundamentally terrible — but the fun variety. Funnible. The 2021 Giants are officially funnible.The Giants should have won on Thursday night against the Washington Football Team. They should’ve knocked off a fashionable playoff pick on their home turf. Instead, they did what funnible teams do: They blew the game in a brilliant kaleidoscope of ways.A 58-yard Daniel Jones touchdown sprint in the second quarter was erased by a holding penalty. A 43-yard Daniel Jones touchdown pass that would have iced the game in the fourth was erased when Darius Slayton dropped it in the end zone. At one point, the Giants actually won the game — the clock had struck zero, and they were leading on the scoreboard — and somehow still lost. (Missed field-goal attempt, offsides, second chance, ballgame.)Now the straight-up fun part: Daniel Jones! All of a sudden, the Giants’ biggest question mark is looking like an exclamation point. And it wasn’t just his legs (fastest quarterback in the N.F.L. last season — look it up). He made good decisions and his throws were sharp-ish. Most critical of all, against what was supposed to be a top-five N.F.L. defense, he didn’t commit a single turnover. Yes, Giants fans, he didn’t even fumble.The fun part, Part 2: The Giants’ second biggest question mark heading into the season, Saquon Barkley, ripped off a vintage Saquon 41-yard run, and you could almost see his confidence in his surgically repaired knee grow with each step.Saquon might be back. Daniel Jones might be legit. The Giants are definitely 0-2. But in Week 3 the maybe-even-lousier Atlanta Falcons come to the Meadowlands. Let the funnible begin.Verdict: Terrible + fun = Funnible. — Devin GordonOutsider’s viewFor decades, the N.F.C. East has been described as the most competitive division in the N.F.L., the best backhanded compliment there is. Any N.F.L. fan could have slept through Thursday night and guessed the result: divisional rivals going down to the last possession, and a result leaving one side happy but no one feeling good.Offensively, the Giants face the same issue as last season — blocking up front. Of Saquon Barkley’s 57 rushing yards, 48 came on two carries. There was more success with Daniel Jones on read options than Barkley between the tackles.The weight of the offense rested on the right arm of Jones, and protecting the quarterback didn’t go any better. Washington’s Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat crushed the pocket from the opening whistle, and got more menacing in the second half when the Giants couldn’t threaten the defense with the run.Yes, Jones played as well as he ever has against that kind of pass rush. But his effort was ultimately wasted because of poor defense, which opened the season by giving up 600 yards and four touchdowns to quarterbacks who were backups entering training camp.The best news leaving Thursday: The Giants have 10 days to recover.Verdict: Nope. Try again next week. — Diante LeeThe Jets’ rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson, was sacked four times and threw four interceptions in Sunday’s 25-6 loss to the Patriots.Frank Franklin Ii/Associated PressJetsThe Jets lost to the Patriots, 25-6, on Sunday.Insider’s perspectiveOf all the crimes against football that the Jets have committed in recent years, the worst of the bunch has been their stubborn insistence on being dull. This is a franchise that hasn’t had a star of any kind since Darrelle Revis, who was never on TV because he played cornerback, and hasn’t had an electrifying playmaker since running back Curtis Martin, who retired in 2007. So if you’re trying to find it in your heart to pity Jets fans, consider this: We have been waiting this whole century just for someone entertaining to watch.No one expected the Jets to be good this year — no one ever expects the Jets to be good. That’d be ridiculous. But heading into the fall, Jets Nation was feeling confident that it had a player to focus on who at least cleared the entertaining threshold: the rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, the laser-armed second overall pick in the draft out of Brigham Young.So when Wilson threw his third interception of the first half Sunday against the New England Patriots, it was early enough to stay focused on the bright side: At least he’s slinging it! And what an arm! His fourth interception, though, on the opening drive of the second half, was a sobering reminder that the Jets are, for now at least, still very much the Jets, and that Bill Belichick still eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast. Belichick’s own rookie quarterback — the Alabama product Mac Jones — meanwhile, did nothing to chase away the ghost of You Know Who, but he executed Belichick’s joyless offense with do-your-job efficiency and collected the first N.F.L. victory of his career. Good for him.Sometimes you can tell just from the final score that a game was a stinker, and this one ended, 25-6, in the Patriots’ favor. Stalled drives, missed extra points, field goal after field goal — it’s right there in the point totals. It’s only Week 2 for the Jets, and it’s only the second game of the Zach Wilson era, but it feels the same as it ever was.Verdict: Keep moving — nothing to see here. — Devin GordonOutsider’s viewWelcome to the N.F.L., rookie.Jets fans were seeing the ghost of Sam Darnold in quarterback Zach Wilson during Sunday’s loss in East Rutherford, N.J. NFL Network’s RedZone channel probably had a massive viewership spike in the New York metropolitan market after 2 p.m., with the game well in hand by the third quarter.Patriots defensive backs J.C. Jackson and Adrian Phillips caught passes from Wilson before a Jets receiver did, and each of Wilson’s four interceptions were progressively worse decisions — the fourth being a pass that seemed intended for New England safety Devin McCourty.Wilson is the latest baby-faced quarterback to end up on the mantel of Bill Belichick, who has lost to only six rookie quarterbacks in his New England tenure — never at home. From 2006 to the start of this season, here are some of the combined statistics of the 20 games rookie quarterbacks have played against the Patriots’ defense: a 55 percent completion rate (the lowest in 2020 was the Eagles’ 56 percent), 19 touchdowns to 30 interceptions (2020 worst: Denver’s 21:23 ratio), and 53 sacks (2020 worst: the Eagles’ 64). Belichick turns rookie quarterbacks into the worst passing offenses in the N.F.L.Meanwhile, Belichick’s rookie quarterback, Mac Jones, was consistently forced to dump the ball off underneath, and almost all of the Patriots’ yardage came after the catch. Jets Coach Robert Saleh’s defense performed well given how much time it spent on the field in the first half, and their “bend but don’t break” approach kept New England from blowing the game open early.The Jets are playing rookies more than anyone else in the league at the moment. This is as torn down as a tear-down gets, and it probably won’t be until the Jets face the Titans (Week 4) and Falcons (Week 5) that the young guys will be able to showcase their potential.Verdict: Not yet, and it’ll be a while. — Diante Lee More

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      What We Learned From Week 2 of the N.F.L. Season

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      Bill Belichick sees a path toward making the Patriots a dynastic contender again, the Cowboys’ talent got a chance to shine, and Sam Darnold looks … happy.There were no shirtless pictures of Bill Belichick from Barbados gracing your screens this off-season.Belichick, the New England Patriots’ head coach, was far too busy to kick back last spring.As a drunken Tom Brady chucked the Vince Lombardi Trophy boat to boat, and as we all declared the quarterback the true driving force in New England all those years, Belichick, the N.F.L.’s Voldemort, plotted his vengeful return. Ego understandably ended this generation’s greatest dynasty. Honestly, it’s a miracle Brady and Belichick coexisted for two decades. Now, ego just may be transforming the Patriots into contenders again.After the Patriots’ first losing season since 2000, Belichick declared himself the fixer this off-season with a $232 million spending spree on his roster. The message was clear in his 47th year as an N.F.L. coach: Give me the horses, and I’ll win with a quarterback on the cheap.And while nobody should ever schedule a Super Bowl parade after a win over the calamity that is the Jets, Sunday served as a quiet warning to the rest of the N.F.L. that Belichick’s Patriots aren’t dead yet.New England’s defense suffocated Zach Wilson throughout a 25-6 win. Once again, Belichick turned a rookie quarterback into a pumpkin. At one point, Wilson had four interceptions and four completions, and you half-hoped Jets Coach Robert Saleh would put the poor player out of his misery by handing him a clipboard.Add it all up, and what we learned most in Week 2 is that there is absolutely a path for the Patriots to be the Patriots once again.Clearly, the Jets are zero threat to win any time soon.The Miami Dolphins (1-1) looked abysmal in a 35-0 home loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. With or without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, this isn’t an offense that’ll scare anyone any time soon. Here’s thinking their Week 1 upset in Foxborough, Mass., was a gift-wrapped fluke.And, yes, the Bills are the defending A.F.C. East champs. Yes, they blasted Miami and, yes, the defense looks phenomenal. The fact is, their franchise quarterback — the very rich Josh Allen — has not looked sharp. He completed only 51 percent of his passes.So what if the Mac Jones Experience in New England is as exciting as a trip to the dentist? We see now why this team was OK washing its hands of Cam Newton. Jones is not overwhelmed by the speed of the N.F.L., Dad bod or not, and that’s all Belichick asks with the roster he has assembled around the position. After paying up for edge rusher Matt Judon, tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, corner Jalen Mills, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and end Henry Anderson — Get all that? — Belichick knew he didn’t need a Superman at quarterback. He needed a distributor who wouldn’t turn the ball over.If that sounds very 1994, he frankly does not care.He let the Jets swing for the fences on a potential Mahomes Lite at No. 2 overall, perfectly content standing pat at No. 15 for a quarterback who completed 77.4 percent of his passes at Alabama. And unlike every other team that drafted a quarterback in April, the Jets did not sign anything resembling a threat or a veteran to challenge or support their rookie. This was Wilson’s gig from Day 1 and, on Sunday, you couldn’t help but wonder if the Jets should’ve found themselves a McCown of some sort.Wilson, the Brigham Young gunslinger, saw more ghosts than Sam Darnold ever dreamed of.After Interception No. 3 — a bizarre floater right to cornerback J.C. Jackson — Jones called an audible at the line and threw a beautiful rainbow to the Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers, in stride, for 24 yards.Such was the theme. This game served as a magnifying glass over two polar-opposite rookies. Wilson wants to play off-script like the three-time M.V.P. he idolized: Aaron Rodgers. His improvisation should at least make another losing season fun for the Jets. When a 315-pounder, Lawrence Guy, barreled in for a sack, Wilson hardly blinked. He juked. He escaped. He kept his eyes downfield before throwing incomplete.This style of play could prove to be special.This style could also get chewed up and spat out by the rest of the N.F.L.Interception No. 4 was even uglier, almost as if New England’s Devin McCourty was Wilson’s intended target.Meanwhile, Jones chugged along. He threw no touchdowns and no picks in completing 22 of 30 passes for 186 yards for the Patriots.Interesting, isn’t it? Through this off-season of quarterback madness, teams bent over backward for the chance at something special. San Francisco unloaded three first-rounders for someone from North Dakota State who played one football game in 2020 (Trey Lance); Green Bay was perfectly fine being publicly embarrassed by its disgruntled M.V.P. for six months (Rodgers); Indianapolis was willing to take on Carson Wentz’s massive contract; the L.A. Rams unloaded two firsts, a third and Jared Goff for a 33-year-old who has gone 74-90-1 in his career with zero playoff wins.The Bills handed Allen a six-year, $258 million contract.The Bears took a swing at every veteran possible before trading up for Justin Fields.And here’s Belichick again zagging as the rest of the league zigs. His defense is highly compensated and loaded. Judon will be worth every penny of his four-year, $56 million deal. Good luck finding a weakness anywhere. And this offense will only get better. Damien Harris atoned for his Week 1 fumble with arguably the best run of the season on Sunday.Harris broke seven tackles on the way to the end zone for a 26-yard touchdown.Beast Mode himself would be proud.OK, Brady’s title for Tampa Bay justifiably has us all questioning who meant more to those six N.F.L. titles in New England. Let’s not write those obituaries on the Patriots quite yet. If this equation leads to a winner, be it 2021 or 2022, nobody will question Belichick again. That’s surely on Belichick’s mind, too.For now, let’s just get the popcorn ready for Patriots-Bucs on Oct. 3.Defensive back Nasir Adderley of the Los Angeles Chargers broke up a pass intended for tight end Blake Jarwin of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesCowboys’ talent overcomes Chargers’ errors.The Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers of this generation are bound to throw wins away as the seconds wane. Both teams have assembled contenders but something, always something, is bound to go wrong.Sunday’s game, a 20-17 Dallas win, sure seemed to be heading in that direction for both teams.On two consecutive drives, the Chargers had touchdowns wiped out by penalties.First, a holding penalty nullified a Donald Parham Jr. score. (An interception soon followed.) Then, an illegal shift nullified a Jared Cook touchdown when Los Angeles had first-and-goal from the 2-yard line. (The Chargers settled for a field goal.) The Chargers (1-1) finished with 12 penalties for 99 yards.Then, it appeared to be the Cowboys’ turn. With 3 minutes 45 seconds left and the score tied, quarterback Dak Prescott drove Dallas into Los Angeles territory, and the Cowboys (1-1) grew lax. Coach Mike McCarthy, who has had clock management issues throughout his career, inexplicably let precious time bleed off the clock with the ball on the Chargers’ 38-yard line.Nonetheless, with four seconds left, Greg Zuerlein banged in a 56-yard field goal to give Dallas its first win of the season.This will need to be the theme for the Cowboys, a team that has suffered the same problems for 25 years now. In 2021, that talent may be enough to validate the machinations of the ownership, the coaching changes and the constant attention. This was a solid win. We know Prescott is one of the greats, but on Sunday, the Cowboys proved they could win with the run, too. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 180 rushing yards.Defensively, this isn’t going to be the historically awful unit we saw in 2020. The team’s new defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, has brought a scheme that is much better than the one Mike Nolan installed via Zoom a year ago, and Micah Parsons gives the Cowboys a playmaking pass rusher that opposing coordinators must now account for every week. A rookie out of Penn State, he was a presence all game with four quarterback hits and one sack.Next time, the Cowboys just may want to gain another 8 yards to be safe.Through his first two games with the Carolina Panthers, quarterback Sam Darnold has looked accurate, decisive and in rhythm. In other words, not like a Jets quarterback.Jacob Kupferman/Associated PressHey, Darnold.There is good news, Jets fans! Your new quarterback isn’t taking any advice from Adam Gase.The Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold — newly Gase-less — was the best quarterback on Sunday in lighting up the same New Orleans Saints defense that throttled Aaron Rodgers a week ago. He shredded the Saints for 305 yards on 26-of-38 passing with two touchdowns in a breezy 26-7 win. Thus far, the Panthers have gotten the most bang for their buck through that quarterback carousel. The marriage between Darnold and the offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, has been perfect two games in.Darnold isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism or his arm strength, but the reason a team drafted him over Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is finally on display. He’s decisive. He’s accurate. He gets into a rhythm. Brady’s offense isn’t wordy or complicated like Gase’s. It simply has an answer for every type of coverage you can throw at Carolina — and Darnold delivers. After failing to register 200 yards and two scores in any game last season, the former Jet accomplished exactly that in one half against New Orleans.Now, with the right coach and the right weapons, he has a realistic shot to be everything we expected in 2018. And then some.Sunday’s GamesRaiders 26, Steelers 17: Derek Carr has secretively been a top 10 quarterback for a while now and he made one of the best defenses in the NFL look silly. If this is the real Henry Ruggs III, the Raiders’ offense may be here to stay, too. He’s not dinking and dunking all game as you might’ve thought — Carr has developed incredible touch on his deep ball.Henry Ruggs III caught a 61-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr in the fourth quarter of the Raiders’ 26-17 win over the Steelers.Philip G. Pavely/USA Today Sports, via ReutersBears 20, Bengals 17: Nine quarterback hits, four sacks, three interceptions, one pick-6. Let’s pray the Bengals aren’t ruining Joe Burrow off that torn ACL.49ers 17, Eagles 11: Jalen Reagor juuust stepped out of bounds running his route before hauling in a deep touchdown that would’ve completely changed the complexion of this game. Instead, San Francisco recovered to grind out the win.Browns 31, Texas 21: Baker Mayfield shouldn’t try to lay anybody out after his next interception. After giving locals a scare with a shoulder injury — a familiar feeling in Cleveland — the quarterback bounced back to finish 19 of 21 for 213 yards with one rushing score and one passing score.Rams 27, Colts 24: It wasn’t pretty but this is also why Sean McVay traded for Matthew Stafford. The longtime Lions starter is used to rallying his offense in the fourth quarter, and he needed to on Sunday.Broncos 23, Jaguars 13: No Jerry Jeudy, no problem. This Denver offense hummed right along with Courtland Sutton (nine receptions for 159 yards) stepping up as Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to guy. Like Darnold in Carolina, Teddy B in Denver is looking like a steal.Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25: A year ago, this offense was in disarray. Tom Brady wanted one offense. Bruce Arians wanted another. Now? Tampa Bay is already scoring at will and that’s a scary thought. Ten different players accounted for 24 completions as Brady threw five touchdowns in all. Until further notice, the Bucs are the team to beat.Cardinals 34, Vikings 33: When the Vikings decided to re-up Kirk Cousins one year ago, it meant embracing a total rebuild on defense. Mike Zimmer’s entire unit underwent a youth movement for the team to simply get under the cap. And while the Covid-19 pandemic provided an understandable excuse for last year’s issues — and there were plenty — there’s no excuse for how bad Minnesota’s defense has looked through two games. Zimmer has work to do.Titans 33, Seahawks 30 (Overtime): Weird things happen in Seattle. Always. None of us should be surprised that the Titans erased a 24-9 lead in a hostile environment to win. As ugly as the first six quarters to their season were, this remains an offense overflowing with weapons and Derrick Henry isn’t showing the slightest signs of wear and tear. The workhorse back bashed Seattle for 182 yards on 35 carries with three touchdowns. More

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      Bills Cruise in Rout of Dolpins

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      In a rout of Miami, the Bills offense did not even need Josh Allen’s best. He still finished 17 of 33 passing for 179 yards and two touchdowns to take the lead in the A.F.C. East.Every starting quarterback in the A.F.C. East was chosen in the top half of the first round within the last four N.F.L. drafts, infusing a bonanza of dynamic young talent into a division that could be — emphasis on could — sneaky competitive this season.For now, though, it is still very much ruled by the Buffalo Bills, who won the division last year behind a prolific offense and vaulted atop it Sunday behind a ferocious defense. The Bills, after throttling the Miami Dolphins by 35-0, will not know for some time whether this early switch in identity represents an anomaly or the nascent stages of a trend.It was, for sure, an encouraging turnabout after a Week 1 defeat by the Steelers that mocked Buffalo’s off-season coronation as a tad premature. The comprehensive nature of Sunday’s mauling — three first-half takeaways, six sacks, four fourth-down stuffs — demonstrated the potential of a group that didn’t coalesce until much later last season.But two games in for Buffalo (1-1), its offense — even with its five touchdowns Sunday — does not quite resemble the unit that last season passed for loads of yards and scored loads of points and, generally, rampaged up and down the field, smashing records and elevating quarterback Josh Allen into most valuable player contention.The Bills created those championship expectations for this season by returning so many starters and adding receiver Emmanuel Sanders. So too did Allen, who spent the off-season honing his mechanics and building lower-body strength and seemed poised to continue his remarkable trajectory from inaccurate college passer to N.F.L. star.But Allen had misfired on a few critical balls in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, doomed in part by poor protection, and on Sunday he sprayed passes all over Hard Rock Stadium, completing just 17 of 33 passes for 179 yards. Dolphins cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones — two of the best in the league — smothered Bills receivers. Throws that Allen connected on a year ago fluttered incomplete. Midway through the second quarter, Howard intercepted a pass thrown behind Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, and later an underthrown ball to Diggs should have been picked.Bills Coach Sean McDermott said the offense lacked a rhythm in the first half, and Allen agreed.“We’ve got some stuff to work on,” Allen said.What stymied the Bills’ offense last week amounted to a flawless game plan by Pittsburgh, executed to perfection. Refraining from blitzing Allen, the Steelers generated pressure with a four-man rush and zone coverage. The reality is that few teams have the personnel to stifle Allen and the Bills in that way, and the Dolphins certainly are not one of them. Miami Coach Brian Flores favors man-to-man coverage and blitzes — lots of blitzes — and in the past Allen has made Miami (1-1) regret those choices.Allen has won all five games against Miami since Flores took over the team after the 2018 season, and on Sunday he offset his scattershot passes by leading Buffalo on five touchdown drives. The Bills also went 4 for 4 in the red zone.All Allen had to do to convert the first touchdown was to hand off to Devin Singletary, who raced 46 yards. But Allen finished with two scoring passes, to Diggs midway into the second quarter and to Dawson Knox on the opening possession of the second half. After that, it was 21-0 and the lead felt insurmountable.After winning last week at New England, the Dolphins could have emerged Sunday as the most comfortable division leader in the league. Instead, they fell behind by 14 points midway through the first quarter, lost their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, to a rib injury, and committed three first-half turnovers, a trilogy of despair: one red-zone fumble, an interception in Buffalo territory and a muffed punt.“Just had a blast,” said Bills safety Micah Hyde, who finished with 7 tackles and one sack.The Bills sacked Tagovailoa twice within the game’s first three plays from scrimmage, and then his day got worse. On Miami’s second possession, Tagovailoa absorbed a blindside clean shot by A.J. Epenesa, who knocked him to the grass as his fourth-down pass meant for Jaylen Waddle sailed incomplete. Tagovailoa spent a few minutes on the ground before walking toward the sideline, clutching his ribs, and heading off to the locker room on a cart.Much like a new homeowner who continues to scour real estate listings after closing, the Dolphins haven’t seemed quite certain about Tagovailoa, yanking him from games during their playoff chase last season and then earlier this month affirming publicly, and privately, that he was their starter despite multiple reports of Miami’s interest in acquiring Deshaun Watson.And now the Dolphins will have to plow forward with Tagovailoa’s status unclear for next week’s game at Las Vegas. They do not see the Bills again until Week 8, and though it is possible that Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones spearheads New England’s rise into contention, it is most likely that Buffalo will be in first place then, as now, as last season, mounting its case as one of the best teams in the A.F.C. More

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      Carl Nassib Made History, but Also a Big Play

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      Last week Nassib, 28, became the first openly gay player to compete in an N.F.L. game. Teammates, the news media and observers casually noted the feat, then cheered his game-changing play.One of the most significant cultural milestones in the recent history of North American sports occurred with about as much pomp and circumstance as a shrug of the shoulders.No openly gay player had ever competed in a regular-season game in the N.F.L.’s 102-year history until Sept. 13, when Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Carl Nassib strode onto the field just as he had done in every game of his six-year pro career.Amid the pageantry of a Monday Night Football game, Nassib’s barrier-breaking moment took a back seat to the Raiders’ ceremonial opening of their new jet-black, $2 billion stadium to fans. The biggest acknowledgment of Nassib’s feat came from some attendants wearing his No. 94 jersey, not from any other orchestrated gesture.On Sunday, he will do it again as the Raiders play the Steelers, with Nassib and the team making a concerted effort to take what he has achieved in stride and leaving it to others to discern and dissect whether a significant cultural shift has occurred in the league.Experts on diversity and inclusion in sports said that was how it should be.“I think the fact that it wasn’t a distraction is a very positive sign,” said Richard Lapchick, director of the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sport. “This is a sign of how much this has been accepted and that there was not a big fuss being made.”On June 21, Nassib, came out as gay in a video posted to his Instagram account, saying he had internalized his sexuality as a secret for 15 years. The one-minute video, filmed outside of his home in West Chester, Pa., ignited a flurry of congratulatory messages on social media, including from his N.F.L. peers, celebrities and President Biden. Nassib’s jersey became the top-seller in the N.F.L. withing 24 hours, according to Fanatics, the league’s e-commerce partner.Before Nassib, 15 players in league history identified as gay or bisexual, according to Outsports, a news website that covers L.G.B.T.Q. athletes and issues in sports. But unlike Nassib, they either announced their sexuality after their playing days had ended or had never appeared in a regular-season game.Nassib’s hit on Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in overtime gave the Raiders possession with less than five minutes remaining. David Becker/Associated PressAhead of the season’s start, Nassib said he would donate $100,000 to the Trevor Project, a crisis intervention organization for L.G.B.T.Q. youth. He contacted he organization about two months before his Instagram post to discuss a plan, said Amit Paley, the Trevor Project’s executive director. In their conversations, Paley said Nassib wanted to raise awareness of L.G.B.T.Q. issues rather than just focus the spotlight on himself.Forty percent of the more than 60,000 L.G.B.T.Q. youth respondents in a 2020 Trevor Project survey said they had contemplated suicide, and 68 percent of respondents in another survey conducted by the organization released this month said they had not participated in sports for their school or community club for fear of discrimination.As Nassib’s post spread, traffic to the Trevor Project’s website increased by over 350 percent, and the organization received at least $225,000 in pledged donations by the end of that week.“I think Carl really didn’t want this to be a big deal, and hopefully one day it isn’t a big deal when someone comes out,” Paley said in an interview. “But clearly it was a big deal to come out and be the first in this way.”Things quieted as training camp began a month later. Nassib’s jersey no longer tops league sales, but it remains in the top five among Raiders players, according to Fanatics.He declined multiple interview requests and spoke publicly only once before the first game. Against the Baltimore Ravens, Nassib played 44 percent of the defensive snaps in a rotational role, making three tackles. But in overtime, he collided with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson for a sack and forced a fumble that the Raiders’ defense recovered. The offense scored a walk-off touchdown to win the game, 33-27, two plays later.Nassib, now on his third team since the Cleveland Browns drafted him in 2016, led the nation with 15.5 sacks at Penn State as a senior and won the Lombardi Award as the nation’s best lineman. He tries to remember things from every game, he said, but he especially savored the Monday night win.“It was really special,” Nassib said in a postgame news conference. “I’m really happy that we got the win on the day that kind of made a little bit of history.”“It was really special,” Nassib said in a postgame news conference. “I’m really happy that we got the win on the day that kind of made a little bit of history.”Rick Scuteri/Associated PressHis teammates did not mention Nassib’s historic role in the win. Coach Jon Gruden complimented only his performance on the field. Defensive end Maxx Crosby did, too, saying simply, “Carl’s a baller and I am proud of the guy.”ESPN, the network which broadcast the game, also treated Nassib’s achievement subtly. It aired a 28-second video in the third quarter with clips of his Instagram video and a few pictures. On an alternate broadcast on ESPN2 featuring retired N.F.L. quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, the former N.B.A. player Charles Barkley appeared as a guest and wore Nassib’s jersey.The nonchalant attitude of the coverage in some ways mimicked the reception of other male pro athletes who played their first games after coming out. The former N.B.A. player Jason Collins received modest applause from an opposing crowd when he entered a game for the Nets in 2014, 10 months after announcing that he was gay. But there was no other form of acknowledgment inside the arena, and Collins and his teammates downplayed the moment to the news media.Robbie Rogers, the first M.L.S. player to appear in a game while openly gay, said things felt “normal” amid a typical atmosphere for a Los Angeles Galaxy game in 2013.Nassib in August said his teammates had supported him since he came out. The Raiders did not make any players available for comment, but quarterback Derek Carr, who said his locker is only a few spots away from Nassib’s, said during training camp that he had not seen anything to dispute that.“When he came in, I just like to watch, and not one person from my point of view has treated him any different,” Carr said.Amy Trask, the former Raiders’ chief executive, said that fits tradition for a team that has historically embraced diversity. In 1997, she became the first woman chief executive in the N.F.L. Tom Flores, who is Mexican American, was the first Latino coach in the N.F.L. to win a Super Bowl, winning two with the Raiders, in the 1980 and 1983 seasons. The team also drafted Eldridge Dickey, the first Black quarterback taken in the first round, in 1968, when the Raiders played in the A.F.L.“He went out and did his job, the way anyone would want any player to do his job,” said Amy Trask, the former Raiders’ chief executive.David Becker/Associated PressTrask said she did not focus on the history she made during her first day or whether her colleagues would change the way they acted toward her. She is not surprised at how Nassib and the Raiders handled last week.“This is an organization that has a track record of hiring without regard to race, gender or any other individuality which has no bearing whatsoever on whether one can do a job,” Trask said in an interview. “It’s very, very special, from my perspective, that Carl is a Raider.“He went out and did his job, the way anyone would want any player to do his job,” she added.If he continues to do the job well, said Wayne Mabry, arguably the Raiders’ most recognizable fan, Nassib’s sexuality would not change how he views the player. For nearly 30 years, Mabry, nicknamed, “The Violator,” attended almost every Raiders home game dressed as a pirate with black-and-silver face paint, leather boots and spiked shoulder pads.It was a tribute he said was inspired partly by the team’s colloquial reputation as the “Bad Boys” of the league. It is irrelevant, he said, that a gay player is on a team with such a historically gritty perception.“Warriors come in all shapes and sizes,” Mabry, 64, said. “It’s about what you bring to the table. As long as he can help us win, he’s a warrior to me.” More

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      NFL Week 2 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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      Daniel Jones and the Giants head to Washington; Josh Allen and the Bills try to bounce back in Miami; and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aim to maintain a winning streak against Baltimore.Last-second field goals. Teams flooding the field for congratulatory hugs before the game officially ended. Nine underdogs upsetting their opponents.The first week of the N.F.L. season gave fans enough drama to make up for the seven months of off-season inactivity.It will be hard to re-create that theater, but Week 2 includes a clash between playoff-caliber teams on Sunday night, divisional rivals on Thursday night and other matchups that will carry postseason implications as the year progresses.Below are our picks against the spread.Last week’s record: 8-8All times are Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s GameSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday Night’s MatchupThursday’s GameGiants at Washington Footballers, 8:20 p.m., FoxLine: Washington -4 | Total: 41Someone has to win, right? Then again, this is the N.F.C. East, so anything can happen. Running back Saquon Barkley is listed as questionable as the Giants (0-1) continue to monitor his workload in light of the knee injury that kept him out most of last season. But Barkley’s return in Week 1 didn’t help the team protect the ball any more than it did in 2020, and quarterback Daniel Jones lost a key fumble in the team’s loss to the Broncos.Washington (0-1) will start Taylor Heinicke at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick out, continuing the revolving door of passers the team has employed since 2018. (They trotted out three different starters in each of the past three seasons). Still, Washington can win if its defense rattles Jones. Its talented pair of edge rushers, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, should make that possible. Pick: Footballers -4Sunday’s Best GamesLamar Jackson and the Ravens will look for a different outcome against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have beaten Baltimore in their last three meetings.Gail Burton/Associated PressKansas City at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Kansas City -2.5 | Total: 55When the Ravens (0-1) are done looking at tape from their Week 1 overtime loss to the Raiders, they should send the footage to Maxx Crosby’s agent. The Raiders defensive end sacked Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson twice and hit him five other times while repeatedly beating offensive tackle Alejandro Villanueva off the line of scrimmage.This week the same porous Baltimore offensive line that let Crosby have his way will collide with Kansas City’s elite pass rusher, Chris Jones, who sacked Baker Mayfield twice in Week 1 after shifting to defensive end from his natural spot on the interior line. The Ravens’ cast of replacement running backs was at least serviceable last weekend, but if that line cannot protect Jackson against Jones and his teammates, then good luck trying to keep scoring pace with Patrick Mahomes and company, who have beaten Baltimore in their last three meetings. Pick: Kansas City -2.5Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Bills -3.5 | Total: 47.5After watching Josh Allen absorb three sacks and eight other hits from the Steelers defense last week, Coach Sean McDermott will certainly adjust the protection to keep his franchise quarterback upright. Lurking in the Dolphins secondary will be cornerback Xavien Howard, who led the N.F.L. in interceptions (10) last season. It was Howard’s forced fumble and recovery in the fourth quarter against the Patriots that broke the game open for the Dolphins’ Week 1 win. Allen and the Bills (0-1) should be able to keep their Super Bowl hopes alive, but with these A.F.C. East rivals sniffing each other out, it will be close. Pick: Bills -3.5Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Seahawks -5.5 | Total: 54The Titans’ experiment of adding receiver Julio Jones to Derrick Henry’s offense failed miserably in Week 1, when the two combined for 106 total yards. After giving up five sacks to Cardinals linebacker Chandler Jones, Tennessee offensive lineman Taylor Lewan conceded on Twitter that Jones had exposed him.Those problems, as bad as they were, may be correctable. More concerning was the fact that Tennessee’s defense allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 289 yards and score five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing). It’s fair to assume that same defense will struggle against Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who threw four touchdown passes against a tough Colts defense last week. Pick: Seahawks -5.5Rams Coach Sean McVay will keep tinkering with schemes for Matthew Stafford against the Colts.Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports, via ReutersLos Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -4 | Total: 47.5Russell Wilson made one of the league’s better defenses look like an impostor in Week 1, and now Indianapolis must prepare for the offensive calculus of Rams Coach Sean McVay, who now has a quarterback who can execute his schemes. As Matthew Stafford dissected the Bears’ secondary for 321 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-14 victory last week, he looked more comfortable than ever throwing downfield strikes.The Colts (0-1) signed the veteran safety Andrew Sendejo this week to help patch the secondary, but having to defend against two aggressive quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks seems too tough a task for Indianapolis. Pick: Rams -4Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -2.5 | Total: 55What warm-up? Putting up 403 passing yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ Week 1 loss, Dak Prescott showed that he wasn’t going to ease his way back from last season’s gruesome ankle injury while nursing a shoulder muscle he strained in training camp. In that game, Ezekiel Elliott served mostly as a blocker against Tampa Bay’s defense. He might reprise that role against the run defense of Chargers (1-0).The Dallas offensive line will get a boost now that guard Zack Martin, who missed the season opener on the Covid-19 list, is available. But it lost tackle La’el Collins to a five-game suspension for a violation of the N.F.L.’s substance-abuse policy. Couple Dallas’s offensive line reshuffling with the still-developing defense going against Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and it looks as though the Cowboys (0-1) may have to wait another week for their first win. Pick: Chargers -2.5New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -3 | Total: 46Jameis Winston began his tenure as New Orleans’ full-time starting quarterback with a win in part because of a smothering effort from the Saints’ defense against a Packers team that seemed to forget that the preseason had ended.Continuity could be an issue for Winston this week as eight members of the Saints — mostly offensive coaches — tested positive for the coronavirus. The team is still practicing in North Texas while the city recovers from Hurricane Ida, and it could lose its top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, who had surgery on his right thumb Tuesday. That’s a lot of responsibility to put on Winston, but the team’s experience and resolve could be enough to help it cover the spread against the Panthers (0-1). Pick: Saints -3Raiders tight end Darren Waller will get the bulk of the attention from the Steelers defense in Sunday’s game.Chris Unger/Getty ImagesLas Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 48.5This will be a chess match between Raiders tight end Darren Waller, who had 105 receiving yards in Monday’s win, and the Steelers defense, which figures to rely heavily on the versatility of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. If the Steelers can disrupt Waller’s routes at all, they will force Derek Carr — who targeted Waller 19 times Monday — to hold the ball longer while looking for the Raiders’ other receiving threats, Henry Ruggs III and Hunter Renfrow.The Raiders’ rookie right tackle, Alex Leatherwood, struggled with pass protection in the opener and now must face T.J. Watt, a Defensive Player of the Year Award candidate. If the Raiders continue the pass-first approach while running back Josh Jacobs nurses a toe injury, Pittsburgh will end up 2-0 to start the season. Pick: Steelers -6.5Sunday’s Other GamesAtlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Buccaneers -13.5 | Total: 52Don’t expect Tom Brady to need a comeback from a 28-3 deficit this time. Four seasons have passed since his Super Bowl LI win, but if the Falcons (0-1) couldn’t stop the Eagles’ second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts from throwing for three touchdown passes last week, then they will surely struggle with the Bucs (1-0) and Brady, whose cast of receivers is arguably the best of his 22-year career. Oddsmakers expect this to be the largest mismatch of the weekend, and rightly so. Pick: Buccaneers -13.5Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -12.5 | Total: 48The Browns (0-1) spent all off-season preparing for last week’s rematch against the Chiefs — and a run at an A.F.C. championship — only to fail to keep pace because of self-inflicted mistakes. Whatever frustrations Cleveland has from letting that game slip through its fingers should find an outlet in the Texans (1-0). Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will again be out as he recovers from off-season knee surgery. But the Browns don’t need him to beat a Houston team with a roster considered one of the least talented in the league. Pick: Browns -12.5Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Bears -3 | Total: 45In Week 1, the Bengals rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who had a shaky preseason, reminded everyone that he can indeed fulfill his job description and catch a football. He collected five passes for 101 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. The Bears’ secondary is arguably their weakest unit, and it allowed Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to throw for 321 yards last week. If the Bears defense allows a similar performance, neither Andy Dalton nor Justin Fields at quarterback would be enough to compensate. Pick: Bengals +3New England Patriots at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -5.5 | Total: 43Patriots running back Damien Harris’s fourth-quarter fumble in the red zone ended a final drive by the rookie quarterback Mac Jones, and New England (0-1) fell to Miami, 17-16, last week. The score should not be so close against the Jets (0-1), who allowed six sacks of their rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson, last week. Blocking for Wilson becomes harder this week without left tackle Mekhi Becton, who is recovering from a dislocated kneecap. One first-year passer will start his career 0-2, and even if the Jets adjust their protection, it will probably be Wilson. Pick: Patriots -5.5San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 50Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts diced up the Falcons’ meager defense, throwing for three touchdowns and 265 yards, while escaping with only one sack. News flash: The 49ers (1-0) are not the Falcons. In a Week 1 win over Detroit, the San Francisco defense again looked like the throttling unit of 2019, sacking Jared Goff three times and pressuring him into an interception that was returned for a touchdown. San Francisco’s starting running back, Raheem Mostert, had season-ending knee surgery, but his replacement, Elijah Mitchell, played well and should continue to do so. Hurts’s first true test of 2021 will be too tough to pass. Pick: 49ers -3.5Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -6 | Total: 45Urban Meyer started his tenure as an N.F.L. coach poorly, with a Jaguars loss against the ransacked Texans roster. His second outing will only be tougher, as he tries to advise the rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence on facing a strong Broncos defense led by linebacker Von Miller, who posted two sacks in his return from the ankle injury that sidelined him in 2020. Denver (1-0) will be without receiver Jerry Jeudy, who is expected to miss at least four weeks because of an ankle sprain. But the Broncos’ defense should be able to contribute some scoring of its own against a young passer. Pick: Broncos -6Kyler Murray threw four touchdown passes, ran for a score and embarrassed several Titans defenders in Week 1.Christopher Hanewinckel/USA Today Sports, via ReutersMinnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Cardinals -4 | Total: 51Kyler Murray’s video-game-like numbers last Sunday (he threw for 289 yards and delivered five total touchdowns, scoring one himself on a 2-yard rush) came against a developing Titans defense, and it’s doubtful that the Vikings (0-1) will allow a similar performance. Even a curtailed Cardinals offense should be enough to outgun the Vikings’ unbalanced attack. In Week 1, running back Dalvin Cook rushed for only 61 yards while Kirk Cousins threw 49 times and took three sacks. Against the Cardinals (1-0), who sacked Ryan Tannehill six times last week, the Vikings won’t be able to match Murray’s fireworks. Pick: Cardinals -4Monday Night’s MatchupDetroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Packers -10.5 | Total: 48R-E-L-A-X.Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers famously spelled out that directive to fans in 2014 after the team started 1-2. Of course, Rodgers and company rebounded from that start to wind up … losing in the N.F.C. Championship Game. Same as they did to end the 2020 season. And the 2019 season. He essentially repeated the mantra after Sunday’s 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints when he told reporters, “It’s just one game.”It won’t be time for hyperventilating unless something goes awry for Green Bay (0-1) this week against the Lions (0-1). It won’t. Rodgers is still one of the league’s best quarterbacks, in one of the league’s best offenses, and he’ll relish the chance to remind everyone of that. Pick: Packers -10.5 More