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    NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

    Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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    Which A.F.C. Teams Could Challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

    The Kansas City Chiefs fortified their offensive line in pursuit of another championship, but the Bills, Browns and a bevy of first-year starters should shake up the order.With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, it’s fair to say that the conference once ruled by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning now belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.But last season’s churn lifted new contenders and stoked new rivalries that could define the next decade for the A.F.C. The Buffalo Bills reached the conference championship and the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game, both for the first time since 1994, and the two franchises are looking to build on that success. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will try to settle their disdain for each other without drawing newly emphasized taunting penalties this season.Though the Texans’ fate is wrapped up in Deshaun Watson’s future, rookie quarterbacks will have their say elsewhere as the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Jets’ Zach Wilson and Patriots’ Mac Jones make their debuts. Here’s a look at where the A.F.C. stands as the 2021 season kicks off.A.F.C. EastBuffalo Bills (13-3)Key additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt BreidaKey departures: WR John Brown, CB Josh NormanThe Bills came within one game of returning to the Super Bowl last season, so their priority was to lock in their best talent, starting with quarterback Josh Allen, who signed a six-year contract extension during training camp. To round out what were the N.F.L.’s second-best offense and a middling defense in 2020, the team also re-signed linebacker Matt Milano, guard Jon Feliciano and offensive tackle Daryl Williams, and picked up the fifth-year option on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and restocked the offensive and defensive lines early in the draft.Miami Dolphins (10-6)Key additions: WR Will Fuller V, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman, RB Malcolm BrownKey departures: LB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan FitzpatrickThe Dolphins were one of the most improved teams in the N.F.L. in 2020, bouncing back from a five-win 2019 season to narrowly miss a playoff berth. To get over the postseason hump, the team gave quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another deep threat in Fuller, to go with DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle, whom the Dolphins drafted sixth overall. Tagovailoa went 6-3 in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns last season, so there’s reason to expect improvement, but if he falters, Brissett’s one-year deal gives the Dolphins a veteran to step in to lead an offense that ranked 22nd in the league last year.New England Patriots (7-9)Key additions: QB Mac Jones, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, WR Nelson AgholorKey departures: QB Cam Newton, RB Sony Michel, S Patrick Chung, OG Joe ThuneyBill Belichick doesn’t like losing and after experiencing his first losing season since 2000, the year he took over in New England, the Patriots’ coach had a very busy off-season. Quarterback Cam Newton clearly was not the long-term solution to the hole left by Tom Brady, but the rookie Jones will face an expedited development after Newton’s sudden release at the end of training camp.Jones benefits from Belichick’s free agent spending in the off-season, when the coach used the league’s second-most cap space to lure in elite tight ends Smith and Henry, who figure to factor heavily in the offense. Defensive back Jalen Mills and linebacker Matthew Judon, who spent five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, round out the summer haul that should alert Buffalo and Miami that Belichick wants his division back.New York Jets (2-14)The Jets took quarterback Zach Wilson from B.Y.U. with the second overall pick in this year’s draft.Matt Ludtke/Associated PressKey additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Carl LawsonKey departures: LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Tarell Basham, WR Breshad PerrimanAfter a disastrous 2020 season, the Jets and their new head coach, Robert Saleh, need more than just one off-season to fill all the holes in their roster. They began the restock in April’s draft by selecting Wilson, who takes over what was the league’s worst offense, and targeting the secondary by taking five defensive backs, led by Jamien Sherwood of Auburn.Davis and Keelan Cole Sr. should provide receiver depth alongside Jamison Crowder, and running back Tevin Coleman, who arrives in free agency after playing in only eight games for the 49ers last season due to a knee injury, should give Wilson a release valve if he’s healthy.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. NorthBaltimore Ravens (11-5)Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, LT Alejandro VillanuevaKey departures: RB Mark Ingram II, LB Matthew Judon, DE Yannick NgakoueBy their standards, the Ravens had a down year in 2020 despite finishing 11-5 in one of the league’s most competitive divisions. Opponents found ways to slow the team’s running game and quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose season ended with a concussion sustained during the divisional round loss to the Buffalo Bills.Jackson enters his fourth season no doubt motivated to show why he deserves a big long-term contract extension and Watkins’ deep threat potential should help him make his case. He will also need to adjust to the absence of J.K. Dobbins, the lead running back who suffered a season-ending knee injury during a preseason game, though the Ravens have a capable backup in Gus Edwards.Team executives aiming for a deeper postseason run focused as usual on defense, re-signing linebackers Chris Board, Tyus Bowser and L.J. Fort, to go with a talented backfield that includes Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.Cornerback Marcus Peters and the Ravens celebrated a fourth-quarter interception in the A.F.C. wild card win over the Titans in January.Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesCincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)Key additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RT Riley Reiff, CB Eli Apple, CB Ricardo AllenKey departures: WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani BernardQuarterback Joe Burrow, the first overall draft pick in 2020, saw his disappointing rookie season end in Week 11 when he tore ligaments in his left knee on a brutal hit. Burrow is expected to be back for the season opener against Minnesota, behind an improved offensive line coached by Frank Pollack, who returns to Cincinnati after two seasons with the Jets.Though the team passed over Penei Sewell to reunite Burrow with Chase, who should again give his quarterback a reliable deep threat, it added Reiff to the line on a one-year deal and drafted Jackson Carman, who protected Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, in the second round. Those additions likely won’t be enough to stop the Browns, Ravens and Steelers from continuing to dominate the division, but they’ll suffice if they keep Burrow off the operating table.Cleveland Browns (11-5)Key additions: DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Greg Newsome, S John Johnson, LB Anthony WalkerKey departures: DT Sheldon RichardsonAfter ending the N.F.L.’s longest playoff drought with a wild card win over the vaunted Steelers, the Browns aren’t settling for a victory lap in the 2021 season. General Manger Andrew Berry continued revamping the roster this off-season, with a square aim on a defense that allowed too many clock-sucking drives in 2020.Berry brought in the top available defensive free agent in April, signing Clowney to a one-year deal to complement Myles Garrett in the pass rush, and added Johnson, perhaps the best available secondary player in free agency. Baker Mayfield, who cut down his turnovers in 2020, should benefit from having a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. to target.Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)Key additions: RB Najee Harris, DB Miles Killebrew, OT Joe HaegKey departures: RB James Conner, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Bud Dupree, T Alejandro VillanuevaThe Ben Roethlisberger era, now in its 18th season, persists. How it will end is the question. Big Ben, 39, seemed to toss off any questions about his rebuilt throwing arm by beginning last season on an 11-0 run. But Pittsburgh couldn’t complete a rally in the wild card round to beat the Browns and the season was dashed well shy of expectations.The Steelers re-signed one of Roethlisberger’s favorite receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and drafted in the first round running back Najee Harris, who broke Derrick Henry’s rushing touchdowns record at Alabama. But the Steelers lost two of their best offensive linemen and with Cleveland on the rise and Baltimore looking for a longer playoff run, the Steelers will have a hard time winning the A.F.C. North again.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. SouthHouston Texans (4-12)Key arrivals: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Rex Burkhead, OT Marcus Cannon, OL Justin BrittKey departures: WR Will Fuller V, C Nick Martin, DE J.J. WattThe 22 pending lawsuits against Deshaun Watson accusing him of sexual misconduct, which he has denied, loom over a franchise that chooses to pretend it’s not at all weird for him to take fourth-team reps at quarterback or serve as scout-team safety — or be with the team at all. Then again, not much makes sense about the Texans, whose front-office dysfunction and salary-cap mismanagement alienated their best players and precipitated a roster, reconstituted with free agents on short-term deals and coached by a first-timer in David Culley, that may luck its way into a victory or two. Or maybe not.Indianapolis Colts (11-5)Key arrivals: QB Carson Wentz, OT Eric Fisher, DT Antwaun Woods, DE Kwity PayeKey departures: QB Philip Rivers, QB Jacoby Brissett, OT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, LB Justin Houston, S Malik HookerNot many teams are constructed and coached as well as the Colts, who went about solving the quarterback quandary prompted by Philip Rivers’s retirement … by acquiring one of the worst in the N.F.L by many statistical measures, advanced or traditional. Carson Wentz has been reunited with Coach Frank Reich and Press Taylor, former mentors in Philadelphia, but is recovering from foot surgery that imperils his availability for Week 1. If Wentz can’t revive his career, a team brimming with talent — guard Quenton Nelson, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard all rank among the best in the league at their positions — can expect to struggle, especially with a brutal early schedule.Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)Key arrivals: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Carlos Hyde, DT Malcom Brown, CB Shaquill GriffinKey departures: WR Keelan ColeIn a college hotbed, owner Shahid Khan has entrusted a successful college coach, Urban Meyer, and the best college quarterback prospect in a decade to resuscitate one of the N.F.L.’s woebegone franchises. The Jaguars will be relevant. Whether they’ll be anything more than competitive depends on the progress of, duh, Lawrence, and their brigade of recent high draft picks, defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback C.J. Henderson and receiver Laviska Shenault. Alas, the Jaguars couldn’t schedule Florida A&M or Kent State to ease Meyer’s transition; they’ll have to settle for playing the Texans twice.Tennessee Titans (11-5)Key arrivals: WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autry, LB Bud Dupree, CB Caleb FarleyKey departures: WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Malcolm ButlerThe Titans were perhaps the most unbalanced team in the N.F.L. last season — elite offense, woeful defense — and hey, guess what? They very well might be again. Their off-season makeover yielded an inexperienced secondary and a thin group of pass-rushers headlined by Dupree, who is coming off knee surgery.It also netted Jones, who if he stays healthy adds another mismatch in the passing game to complement A.J. Brown. As assembled, the Titans are good enough to win this middling division again, but their chances would improve if they narrowed that gap between offense and defense even a bit.—Ben ShpigelA.F.C. WestDenver Broncos (5-11)Key Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Patrick Surtain II (1st round) CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle FullerKey Departures: RB Phillip Lindsay, CB A.J. Bouye, TE Nick Vannett, RT Ja’Wuan JamesThe Broncos spent much of training camp evaluating a quarterback battle between a journeyman and a young, inconsistent passer.Teddy Bridgewater, discarded by the Carolina Panthers in a trade, wrenched the starting job away from Drew Lock, who led the league in interceptions thrown in 2020. Bridgewater’s risk-averse play should be a boon to receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Star linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that kept him out last season, holding down a strong defense that got better for drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II and adding the veteran Fuller in free agency.Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown, OG Joe Thuney, DT Jarran Reed, OL Austin BlytheKey Departures: OT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, OT Mitchell SchwartzThe Chiefs’ depleted offensive line was exposed in last year’s playoffs, first when Mahomes took on a hit by the Browns in the divisional round, and definitively in the Super Bowl, when the Buccaneers sacked Mahomes twice and hit him nine times. General manager Brett Veach addressed the deficiency in the off-season by trading for Brown and drafting 6-foot-5 center Creed Humphrey in the second round. The new-look offensive line should give Mahomes the time in the pocket to find his speedy playmakers instead of relying on him to be one.Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)Key Additions: DL Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, OL Alex LeatherwoodKey Departures: WR Nelson Agholor, DE Takkarist McKinley, RB Devontae BookerTight end Darren Waller became the Raiders’ best offensive weapon last season, catching 107 passes and posting over 1,000 receiving yards. Opponents noticed. This season, defenses focused on stopping Waller should be kept honest by running back Josh Jacobs, who earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2020, and deep threat receiver Henry Ruggs III.The Raiders’ top-10 offense was weighed down by a defense that ranked 30th in the N.F.L. and gave up 389 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was brought in along with Ngakoue, who should compliment Maxx Crosby on the defensive line. That unit could hold control over how hot Coach Jon Gruden’s seat gets.Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)After missing all of the 2020 season and 11 games in 2019, Chargers safety Derwin James, right, is back to his pass-stealing ways in Los Angeles.Alex Gallardo/Associated PressKey Additions: C Corey Linsley, OT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, OT Rashawn SlaterKey Departures: TE Hunter Henry, CB Casey Hayward, DE Melvin IngramHad a team physician not accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, Justin Herbert may never have played last season. But he did, and his stellar performance — throwing for over 4,000 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, earned him the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Herbert’s rise was the bright spot in a season in which the Chargers clumsily lost seven games by one score and fired Coach Anthony Lynn.His replacement, Brandon Staley, takes over a revamped offensive line and gets back safety Derwin James, an All-Pro in 2018, who missed 11 games after fracturing his right foot in 2019 and sat out the 2020 season with a torn meniscus. With James healthy, a wild-card berth isn’t out of the question.—Emmanuel Morgan More

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    Patriots Cut Cam Newton After Covid-Related Disruptions

    Newton was sidelined early last season with the virus and missed practices last week because of a mix-up over protocols. The rookie quarterback Mac Jones will be New England’s starter.After entering training camp as New England’s starting quarterback, Cam Newton didn’t just lose that job on Tuesday — he lost his roster spot, too.The Patriots cut Newton, the N.F.L.’s most valuable player in 2015, as they began paring their roster to the league-mandated 53 players before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. deadline. The move allows the rookie Mac Jones, who excelled in camp and the preseason, to start in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins on Sept. 12. Newton’s release was first reported by The Boston Globe.Newton, 32, started all three of New England’s preseason games, including Sunday’s preseason finale at the Giants, in which he played two series. But he missed three days of practice last week because of what the team said was a “misunderstanding” related to Covid-19 protocols after a team-approved medical appointment out of the area. His absence enabled Jones to take more first-team snaps.“I feel like everybody’s way ahead of where they were last year,” Coach Bill Belichick said of Newton on Tuesday, hours before news of his release surfaced. “Certainly, he started at a much higher point than what he did last year, so definitely moving in the right direction.”Not long after he was released, Newton thanked his fans in a statement posted on his Instagram account.“I really appreciate all the love and support during this time but I must say … please don’t feel sorry for me!! I’m good,” Newton wrote.Last season, his first in New England, Newton’s ups and downs were emblematic of the league’s struggles to play during the pandemic. He was infected with the coronavirus early in the season, missing one game and forcing the N.F.L. to move the Patriots’ game against the Kansas City Chiefs to a Monday night after Newton tested positive for the virus. The Patriots flew to Kansas City, Mo., in two planes — one for players and staff who were exposed to Newton and one for everyone else.After the season, Newton said his time away from the team so soon after arriving had made it harder for him to learn the playbook.In training camp this season, Newton declined to confirm whether he received a vaccine against the virus, saying only that the issue was too personal to discuss. But after his medical appointment last week, he went through a five-day process to rejoin the team that applies only to unvaccinated players.Under N.F.L. rules, unvaccinated players must be tested every day for the virus, as opposed to once a week for vaccinated players, and they cannot move around the team facility or mix with teammates as freely as vaccinated players.Once one of the league’s most electrifying players as the franchise quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, Newton had the misfortune of sustaining a serious foot injury in 2019, limiting him to two games, a few months before a new regime took over the front office and a pandemic disrupted off-season player movement. The Panthers released him, but as other quarterbacks signed quickly, Newton languished for months, reportedly unwilling to be a backup.In the depressed market for his services, the Patriots saw an opportunity. After cutting ties with Tom Brady, the team signed Newton to a one-year, incentive-heavy deal in June 2020, and he promptly beat out Jarrett Stidham in training camp. Starting 15 games for New England, Newton rushed for 12 touchdowns and completed 65.8 percent of his passes, though the offense sputtered for vast chunks of a season undermined by infrequent practices and meager skill players.The Patriots, wanting an established quarterback on the roster before free agency began, re-signed Newton in what was a prelude to a bigger investment at the position. For the first time in his 22 drafts in New England, Belichick drafted a quarterback in the first round, taking Jones at No. 15.No defense in 2020 could stop Jones, who at the University of Alabama threw for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and four interceptions, leading the nation with 11.2 yards per attempt and a 77.4 completion percentage. A traditional pocket passer, Jones was an outlier among the quarterbacks chosen in the first round of the draft.But the Patriots were enamored of his awareness, steady improvement and command of the offense. In the preseason, he completed 36 of 52 passes for 388 yards and a touchdown.“I’m going to be ready whenever my time comes up,” Jones said Sunday night.That time has come, and against the Dolphins in Week 1, he will most likely start opposite the player he succeeded at Alabama, Tua Tagovailoa. Newton could be attractive to teams with unsettled backup situations, among them the Jets, Dallas, Houston and Washington. But it is also possible that his vaccination status will deter other teams from signing him because they do not want to risk disrupting their season. More

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    The 2021 NFL Draft First Round is Over. Here's What We Learned.

    Quarterbacks still come first, Alabama still produces talent and Aaron Rodgers is still unhappy.The first round of the 2021 N.F.L. draft proceeded on Thursday night according to the league’s strict hierarchy: quarterbacks came first, followed by those who catch passes from them and protect them, with the defenders tasked with stopping them bringing up the rear.And just to add some extra drama to the proceedings, a member of the league’s quarterback aristocracy did his best to upstage the newcomers.Quarterbacks went 1-2-3.For the first time since 1999, quarterbacks were selected with the top three picks: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence by the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson by the Jets at No. 2, and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance by the San Francisco 49ers at No. 3.The Lawrence and Wilson selections were forgone conclusions weeks ago. San Francisco’s choice of Lance over Alabama’s Mac Jones or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, on the other hand, had been a closely guarded secret.Lance led the Bison to the Football Championship Subdivision national championship in 2019, throwing 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions against a much lower caliber of competition than Fields or Jones faced in their Power 5 conferences. He played only one game in 2020 because of coronavirus-related postponements and cancellations before declaring for the draft. A coach of Kyle Shanahan’s insight, however, can no doubt accurately evaluate a small-program prospect with limited playing time.Lance will replace Jimmy Garoppolo, the small-program prospect with limited playing time whom Shanahan’s 49ers traded for in 2017, lavishly overpaid and eventually grew disenchanted with.Fields, who led the Buckeyes to consecutive College Football Playoff appearances, dropped to the Chicago Bears, who traded up to draft him with the 11th pick. He is expected to quickly supplant Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, the N.F.L.’s versions of Art Garfunkel and John Oates.The New England Patriots later selected Jones with the 15th overall pick. Jones led the Crimson Tide to the national championship in 2020 under nearly ideal conditions; five of his college teammates were selected among the draft’s first 24 picks. Now he joins one the most successful American sports franchises of the 21st century. Some guys have all the luck.Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith were the last quarterbacks to be selected with the top-three selections in an N.F.L. draft. Only McNabb had a noteworthy career, which is a reminder that top quarterback prospects usually end up at the mercy of perennially dysfunctional franchises like the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. Or, in this year’s case, the Jaguars and the Jets.Receivers great and small were embraced.The Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith went to the Eagles at No. 10.Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesAfter the quarterbacks came a run of pass catchers.The Atlanta Falcons selected tight end Kyle Pitts, who caught 12 touchdown passes in eight games for Florida last year, at No. 4. The highest-drafted tight end in history, Pitts is expected to revolutionize the way N.F.L. offenses use tight ends, just as Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle, Travis Kelce and many others revolutionized the position over the last 50 years. Apparently, the tight end position has undergone as many revolutions as 19th century Italy.The Cincinnati Bengals selected Louisiana State wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase with the fifth pick, reuniting him with Joe Burrow, Chase’s college quarterback and the top pick in last year’s draft. If the Bengals transform into an L.S.U. alumni team, it will at least give them an identity for the first time since Boomer Esiason left in 1993.The speedy Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle joined the Miami Dolphins with the next pick, No. 6 over all, leaping ahead of more-accomplished teammate DeVonta Smith, who was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 10th pick.Smith is nicknamed Slim Reaper, which sounds like the world’s only Eminem/Iron Maiden tribute band but refers instead to the fact that Smith reportedly weighs around 166 pounds, a few Waffle House breakfasts shy of the minimum N.F.L. threshold. Smith should have carried the 45-pound Heisman Trophy he won last season onto a scale with him to put evaluators more at ease.Like Chase, Waddle and Smith will be reunited with their college quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (in Miami) and Jalen Hurts (in Philadelphia). But it’s not really noteworthy when that sort of thing happens to Alabama players.Cornerbacks: The next generation.The Broncos liked the look of cornerback Patrick Surtain II. So did Patrick Surtain II.Pool photo by David DermerBy the time N.F.L. teams got around to drafting some defenders, their best choices turned out to be cornerbacks with famous fathers.The Carolina Panthers selected Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) with the eighth pick. Horn’s father, Joe Horn, was a standout wide receiver best known for using a cellphone as a prop in a touchdown celebration against the Giants in 2003. Horn used a flip phone, retroactively making the gag a “dad joke.”Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) joined the Denver Broncos with the ninth pick. His father played for the great Miami Dolphins defenses of the early 2000s, which are not well remembered mostly because their offenses were dreadful.Other second-generation cornerbacks will be drafted in later rounds, including Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr., whose dad allowed an Eli Manning interception to bounce off his hands in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLII, making him the only New England Patriots player eligible for the Giants’ Ring of Honor.Leaping forward and trading back.The Jets traded up to the 14th pick from the 23rd pick (acquired from the Seattle Seahawks in last year’s Jamal Adams deal) to select Southern Cal offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker, who will provide some insurance against Wilson’s enduring too many early-career hits the way the last umpteen Jets quarterback prospects did.The Giants’ general manager, Dave Gettleman.Michael Conroy/Associated PressAs for the Giants, General Manager Dave Gettleman opted to trade down in the first round for the first time in his long career, sliding down from the 11th pick to net an extra first-round pick in 2022, plus change. In their adjusted spot at No. 20, the Giants selected the Florida all-purpose rusher-receiver Kadarius Toney.Gettleman said last week that he had always been amenable to trading down, but the price was never right. “I don’t want to get fleeced,” he said.No N.F.L. personality sounds more like a crotchety uncle haggling at a used car dealership than Gettleman, but he appears to have struck a shrewd deal this time.Rodgers, grudges and Green Bay.Aaron Rodgers in the workday uniform he currently prefers.Carol Kaelson/Jeopardy Productions, Inc., via Associated PressA report by ESPN’s Adam Schefter that a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers does not want to return to the Green Bay Packers sent shock waves across the league in the hours before the draft. Rodgers, the reigning most valuable player and a recent “Jeopardy!” guest host, was not-so-secretly miffed when the Packers drafted his potential replacement, Jordan Love, in last year’s first round and by other organizational decisions.The Packers could have selected a wide receiver with the 29th pick, which would have been the draft-day equivalent of a diamond brooch and a tearful apology. Instead, they chose Georgia cornerback Eric Stokes.While the Rodgers situation is still developing, few teams have the resources to trade for him. And if Rodgers chooses to retire, “Jeopardy!” would be better off hiring LeVar Burton. More

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    How to Watch the 2021 NFL Draft: Start Time, Streaming and Draft Order

    A complete guide to some of the biggest questions surrounding the N.F.L. draft.The guessing will soon be over.After months of projections and rumors, the N.F.L. draft begins with the first round on Thursday, and with it comes a chance for all 32 teams to add new talent to their rosters. The coronavirus pandemic altered this year’s player evaluation process, but the end result will remain the same: More than 200 college players will formally be welcomed into the league during the three-day spectacle. Here’s what you need to know about it.What time is the draft?The first round of the N.F.L. draft starts Thursday at 8 p.m. Eastern time.ESPN, ABC and NFL Network will broadcast the event. It can be streamed through services like Hulu, Sling TV, fuboTV and the ESPN and N.F.L. apps.Where is the draft?Unlike in 2020, it won’t be held in N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell’s basement. The league. will convene in Cleveland this season for a hybrid model — some remote segments, some in-person — after Covid-19 forced the league last year to conduct the ceremonies virtually.Thirteen prospects will be on site to hug a vaccinated Goodell, if they so choose, after he calls their names. Others, including the presumed No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, a quarterback out of Clemson, will participate remotely. The N.F.L. also organized in-person musical performances and other events for fans in attendance.What’s the first round draft order?For the first 14 weeks of the 2020 season, the Jets were winless and seemed poised to inherit the No. 1 overall pick. But after winning two of their last three games, they forfeited that right and handed it to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost every game after the season opener.The San Francisco 49ers leapt nine spots when they acquired the third overall pick through a trade last month with the Miami Dolphins, who then traded with the Philadelphia Eagles for the No. 6 pick. The Baltimore Ravens also reshuffled the order when they received the No. 31 pick from Kansas City in a trade package that included offensive tackle Orlando Brown.Kansas City, along with the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, does not have a first-round pick because of previous trades. The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Ravens each have two.1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay BuccaneersWho will be picked No. 1?All signs point to the Jaguars selecting Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In three seasons as a starter, he led the Tigers to two national title games, winning after the 2018 season, and three consecutive College Football Playoff appearances. He lost only two games in his career at the South Carolina school.Lawrence declined the N.F.L.’s invitation to attend the draft in person and instead will watch with his wife, Marissa, and family at their home near Clemson. Along with the newly hired Coach Urban Meyer, he will be charged with improving a franchise that has historically struggled to win. Since 2008, the Jaguars have finished above .500 only once.If everyone knows who will be picked first, where is the drama?Unless the Jets drift from their expected plan of selecting Brigham Young quarterback Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick, the suspense starts with San FranciscoThe 49ers’ trade package to the Dolphins included two future first-round picks, a steep price San Francisco felt comfortable paying to add a quarterback. Their current starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, has been sidelined with major injuries, playing in fewer than seven games in two of the last three seasons.Alabama’s Mac Jones, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields are the leading candidates to be picked by the 49ers. While Jones is an accurate pocket passer, Lance and Fields can throw and be effective runners, adding another stress to a defense and expanding Coach Kyle Shanahan’s playbook.But the 49ers can only pick one of them, leaving a bevy of options for the Atlanta Falcons with the fourth overall pick. Their franchise quarterback, Matt Ryan, 35, is the second-oldest quarterback in the N.F.C. South, and though he arguably has productive seasons ahead of him, Coach Arthur Smith and General Manager Terry Fontenot, who both were hired this winter, may elect to start the line of succession.Florida tight end Kyle Pitts could also make sense for the Falcons, especially since teams have reportedly tried to gauge their interest in trading the star receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta could swap picks with a team searching for a quarterback and choose from talented players later in the first round.What about players who opted out of their college seasons?More than 100 Division I players opted out of the 2020 college football season because of coronavirus concerns. Some of those players are expected to come off the board early, despite not having played a live snap in more than a year.The Bengals, with the fifth pick, are expected to be the first team to select a player who opted out since the best available non-quarterbacks align with some of the team’s many, many needs. Cincinnati could either bolster its offensive line, which surrendered the third-most sacks in the N.F.L. last season, by drafting Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell. Or it could reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with receiver Ja’Marr Chase, one of his teammates from Louisiana State’s national championship team.Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, Miami defensive end Gregory Rousseau and Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater are also projected first-round selections who opted out of the 2020 season. More

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    Here Are The Needs for the Biggest Movers in the NFL Draft

    San Francisco traded for the No. 3 pick to select a quarterback, and Baltimore traded into the first round, sending Orlando Brown to Kansas City, to reload for the future.The top of the N.F.L. draft quaked late last month when the Miami Dolphins, the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles swung what amounted to a three-team trade. The bottom of it shuddered on Friday when the Baltimore Ravens acquired another first-round pick.In March, the Dolphins sent the No. 3 pick in the draft to San Francisco for the No. 12 pick this year, first- and third-round picks in 2022 and a first-round pick in 2023. Then they shipped the No. 12 pick and a fourth-rounder this year and a first-rounder in 2022 to the Eagles, who gave Miami the No. 6 pick and a fifth-round selection.Those teams have not tipped off their draft targets — though 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan faces questions nearly every day about his team’s quarterback position — but here are their needs ahead of Thursday night’s first round:No. 3 Pick: San Francisco 49ers (From Miami)Both Justin Fields and Mac Jones have been speculated as targets for the San Francisco 49ers with the No. 3 pick in the 2021 N.F.L. draft.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesMichael Reaves/Getty ImagesWith Jacksonville set to pick Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and the Jets most likely taking Zach Wilson at No. 2, this is where the draft begins and where all the speculation finally, mercifully, ceases. After trading with the Dolphins to move up nine spots last month, the 49ers are taking a quarterback to sit behind, or supplant, Jimmy Garoppolo this year. Their choice will reveal much about Kyle Shanahan’s vision.Does he value an accurate, mechanically sound pocket passer who can execute a scheme designed to yield completions and yards after receptions? If so, come on down, Mac Jones of Alabama.But after watching Patrick Mahomes toast the 49ers in the Super Bowl to cap the 2019 season and seeing Josh Allen shred them in Week 13 last season, Shanahan could be craving a mobile quarterback. He has Justin Fields of Ohio State and Trey Lance of North Dakota State to choose between. That decision will fling the rest of the top 10 into chaos.No. 6 Pick: Miami Dolphins (From Philadelphia)L.S.U. receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who opted out of the 2020 college football season, could be available when the Dolphins select sixth.David J. Phillip/Associated PressThe Dolphins want to put quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in a better position for success in his second N.F.L. season. Their trades with Philadelphia and San Francisco guarantee that they can do so with the sixth overall pick, where at least one receiver among Ja’Marr Chase of Louisiana State and Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith of Alabama, or the unicorn tight end Kyle Pitts of Florida, will be available. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell of Oregon could also be available.Miami is picking here because a video surfaced minutes before the 2016 draft of the offensive tackle prospect Laremy Tunsil wearing a gas mask and appearing to smoke marijuana through a bong. To explain: Because of the video, Tunsil was selected at No. 13, lower than expected, by Miami. After developing him into one of the league’s best tackles, the Dolphins, as they stripped their roster for a rebuild, were able to trade a package that included him to the Houston Texans in 2019 for a package that included three draft picks, including the third pick in this year’s draft.No. 12 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles (From Miami, via San Francisco)Either the Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, left, or Jaylen Waddle, right, of Alabama, would be a welcome addition to the Eagles, who are looking to upgrade the receiver position.Kevin C. Cox/Getty ImagesBy trading back from the sixth pick and obtaining a 2022 first-round pick in the process, the Eagles signaled that they would replenish their aging roster under their new coach, Nick Sirianni. The move collects a raft of picks for 2022, when, hopefully, the college football schedule returns to normal and teams can better evaluate prospects.Maybe most important to Eagles fans, it confirmed that Philadelphia was not interested in selecting a quarterback high or displacing Jalen Hurts — at least not this year. With two first-round picks in 2022, and possibly a third if Carson Wentz reaches playing time benchmarks in Indianapolis, the Eagles are positioned to acquire a quarterback next off-season if Hurts flops.As for this year, the Eagles need receivers and upgrades at a lot of other positions. If Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith from Alabama is available, General Manager Howie Roseman may be tempted. If neither is, and if he doesn’t like the talent at another need position (like, say, cornerback), he might just trade out again.No. 31 Pick: Baltimore Ravens (From Kansas City)Baltimore traded away the Pro Bowl offensive lineman Orlando Brown to gain a first-round pick in this year’s draft and stockpiled future selections.Brett Carlsen/Associated PressThe Ravens on Friday traded a player at a premium position, the Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Brown, to Kansas City for this pick and others. It might have seemed peculiar, helping the best team in the conference get better at protecting Patrick Mahomes’s blind side, but Ravens General Manager Eric DeCosta values draft choices. For unloading Brown, he got three others spread across the next two years.Baltimore, which also picks at No. 27, now has options, either to trade up, to bolster its receiving corps or to improve a pass rush that lost the free-agent defensive end Matt Judon to New England in the off-season.Full 2021 N.F.L. Draft Order1. Jacksonville Jaguars2. New York Jets3. San Francisco 49ers4. Atlanta Falcons5. Cincinnati Bengals6. Miami Dolphins7. Detroit Lions8. Carolina Panthers9. Denver Broncos10. Dallas Cowboys11. New York Giants12. Philadelphia Eagles13. Los Angeles Chargers14. Minnesota Vikings15. New England Patriots16. Arizona Cardinals17. Las Vegas Raiders18. Miami Dolphins19. Washington Football Team20. Chicago Bears21. Indianapolis Colts22. Tennessee Titans23. New York Jets24. Pittsburgh Steelers25. Jacksonville Jaguars26. Cleveland Browns27. Baltimore Ravens28. New Orleans Saints29. Green Bay Packers30. Buffalo Bills31. Baltimore Ravens32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers More

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    After Trevor Lawrence, Pick Another Quarterback

    With no shortage of teams looking for a passer to build around, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones figure to shape the draft’s top 10 picks.There is no drama as to who will be the No. 1 pick in this year’s N.F.L. draft. The only question had been which team would get the chance to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The Jacksonville Jaguars secured that honor by way of the Jets’ seemingly not understanding that they were supposed to keep losing.So with the knowledge that Lawrence, a Peyton Manning-like sure thing of a quarterback prospect, is going to Jacksonville to be paired with Coach Urban Meyer in a college-meets-pros marriage, here is a look at the other four quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10 of this year’s draft, which will begin on Thursday with the first round held in Cleveland.Zach Wilson: The GunslingerZach Wilson’s devil-may-care attitude and prolific numbers endeared him to college fans and to the Jets, which pick second in Thursday’s N.F.L. draft.Steve Conner/Associated PressCollege: Brigham Young (two-plus seasons as a starter)Size: 6 feet 2 inches, 214 pounds2020 Passing: 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 196.4 rating2020 Rushing: 254 yards, 10 touchdownsThe reason Wilson is considered the consensus No. 2 pick: Aaron Rodgers. The reason the Jets, who hold the selection, might want to show at least a little caution: Johnny Manziel. Wilson has a strong and accurate arm, improvises well outside the pocket and has off-the-charts confidence — all the charisma and competitiveness that Rodgers and Manziel have in common.But that approach yielded different outcomes for those two gunslingers in the pros, where Rodgers’s size and off-field steadiness were among the traits that made him more successful. Wilson’s daring did not work all that well against top competition in college, where he went 2-4 against top-25 teams, and it’s an open question whether it will work against disciplined N.F.L. defenses.Wilson, 21, missed games in 2019 for surgeries on his shoulder and thumb, but if his 2020 season was a true reflection of his skill, the team drafting Wilson is getting a truly special quarterback.Outlook: The Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers in early April and it is considered nearly certain that they are set on Wilson as his replacement.Justin Fields: The Dual ThreatJustin Fields led Ohio State’s romp over Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. He and Alabama’s Mac Jones are both rumored to be the target of the San Francisco 49ers, which traded up to the No. 3 pick.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Ohio State, transferred from Georgia (two seasons as a full-time starter)Size: 6-2, 228 pounds2020 Passing: 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 175.6 rating2020 Rushing: 383 yards, 5 touchdownsFields grew up a few towns over from Lawrence in Georgia and has been in his shadow at each step along the way, especially after Lawrence won the national championship as a freshman. Fields transferred from Georgia to Ohio State for his sophomore season in 2019 and was a Heisman Trophy finalist (Lawrence didn’t make the cut). Lawrence and Clemson beat Fields and Ohio State in that season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, but Fields got his revenge the next season as the Buckeyes trounced the Tigers in another semifinal matchup.Now Fields’s easiest comparison is to the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, another big-bodied pocket passer who can surprise with his running if there’s an opening. There is no question that Fields regressed in 2020 compared to his breakout 2019 season, when he threw for 3,273 yards with 41 touchdowns against three interceptions. His labored release and tendency to hold onto the ball resulted in his taking sacks, but his arm strength and versatility, along with his strong effort against Clemson in a pressure-packed game, have turned the volume down on any questions. So did his head-on handling of publicly detailing his epilepsy diagnosis, which he has managed since his childhood.Outlook: While not in the mix for the top two picks, Fields is the overwhelming favorite to be the third quarterback drafted Thursday, as his accuracy, his arm strength and his ability to run all make him an ideal fit for Coach Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco.Trey Lance: The Unproven StarAfter a breakout sophomore season, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance played in only one game in 2020.Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated PressCollege: North Dakota State (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-4, 226 pounds2019 Passing: 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 180.6 rating2019 Rushing: 1,100 yards, 14 touchdownsLance hasn’t lost a football game since Nov. 10, 2017, when his Marshall (Minn.) Tigers were topped by the South St. Paul Packers in Minnesota’s high school state quarterfinals. He hasn’t thrown an interception in a game since Oct. 13, 2017. After throwing only one pass at North Dakota State in his freshman year, he won the Walter Payton Award as the top player in the Football Championship Subdivision and led North Dakota State to an undefeated championship season in his lone year as a starter.N.D.S.U. played its only fall game on Oct. 3, 2020, before Lance declared for the draft, meaning six months have gone by since anyone has seen him throw a competitive pass. Little matter for the right team. Lance is known as a film room addict with atypical passing mechanics abetted by a quick-enough release. His array of devastating play fakes, combined with his speed and power as a runner, give Lance a skill set that should translate at the pro level.Outlook: Seemingly assured of being a top-10 pick, Lance is the fourth quarterback off the board in most mock drafts. His back story of people doubting his ability to handle the quarterback position is reminiscent of Lamar Jackson, his style of play is a little closer to Josh Allen, and Carson Wentz has proved that a player from N.D.S.U.’s program can succeed in the N.F.L. That is good company to keep.Mac Jones: The Question MarkMac Jones quarterbacked Alabama to a 13-0 record and the national championship with an offense that boasted an embarrassment of riches at every position.Michael Reaves/Getty ImagesCollege: Alabama (one season as a full-time starter)Size: 6-3, 217 pounds2020 Passing: 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 203.1 rating2020 Rushing: 14 yards, 1 touchdownsHaving come to Alabama in the same recruiting class as Tua Tagovailoa, and with Jalen Hurts entrenched at starter upon his arrival, it took a while before Jones got onto the field. It didn’t take Jones long to prove himself. As a fill-in starter in the 2019 season he led the Crimson Tide to a 2020 Citrus Bowl win, and in his lone season as the full-time starter he set a Football Bowl Subdivision single-season record for completion percentage with an eye-popping 77.4 percent.Jones’s accuracy, his strong-enough arm and his ability to move around in the pocket (even if he almost never runs) make him an attractive prospect. There are questions, though, about the frantic nature of his play, his slow release, how he will improvise when his first option isn’t available and how much of his success was a result of his team having been comically loaded at every position on offense.Outlook: Jones, 22, has been linked in some reports to San Francisco, which traded up to the No. 3 pick in late March. Shanahan watched his second pro day workout, as did New England’s Bill Belichick. The Patriots (who have the No. 15 pick) would have to trade into the top 10 to grab Jones before the quarterback-coveting Panthers (No. 8) and Broncos (No. 9) are on the clock. More