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    NFL Week 4 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread

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    Tom Brady faces Bill Belichick, the Rams and the Cardinals fight to stay undefeated, and the Browns’ pass rush travels to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Guess what? Tom Brady heads to Foxborough, Mass., to play the Patriots this weekend. You probably already knew that, though.Brady’s return to New England pits him against Coach Bill Belichick, with whom he won six Super Bowls over two decades. Brady is back in town with a freshly acquired Super Bowl ring and needing only 68 yards to break Drew Brees’s N.F.L. record for career passing yards. But there are other grudge matches around the N.F.L. in Week 4, including an N.F.C. West showdown between the unbeaten Rams and Cardinals and a scary Browns pass rush traveling to Minnesota to try to end Kirk Cousins’s interception-less streak.Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 4, with all picks made against the spread.Last week’s record: 12-4All times Eastern.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s MatchupSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s other gamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s MatchupJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:20 p.m., NFL NetworkLine: Bengals -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Jaguars’ streak of allowing an average of 302.3 passing yards per game should continue this week against the Bengals (2-1) as Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seem to have rediscovered their college chemistry in the pros.Burrow and Chase have connected for touchdown passes in each of their three games, including two last week in the 24-10 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Trevor Lawrence’s acclimation to the league has been rough; the rookie has thrown seven interceptions compared with only five touchdowns. Expect Burrow and the Bengals to score at will while the Jaguars (0-3) struggle to respond. Pick: Bengals -7.5Sunday’s Best GamesTampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -6.5 | Total: 49After the pomp and circumstance around Tom Brady’s return to Gillette Stadium as a visitor dies down, the game itself should be competitive. The Buccaneers (2-1) will have Antonio Brown back from the reserve/Covid list, but the team will be without slot receiver Scotty Miller, who has a toe injury, and potentially the pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, who sat out against the Los Angeles Rams with hand and shoulder injuries. The veteran free-agent cornerback Richard Sherman will join the team as its secondary battles injuries, though Coach Bruce Arians said he doubted Sherman would play on Sunday.Teams have not run effectively against Tampa Bay’s front seven and have instead exploited its defensive backs. The Bucs’ secondary has allowed opponents to throw for over 300 yards twice, including in a loss to the Rams last week, when Matthew Stafford tossed for 343 yards and four touchdowns. Brady will be motivated to win, and the Bucs most likely will, but the secondary’s struggles give Mac Jones and the Patriots a chance to cover the spread. Pick: Patriots +6.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: Rams -6 | Total: 54.5Matthew Stafford’s connection with Cooper Kupp has made the receiver a fantasy football must-have. Kupp leads the N.F.L. in receiving yards (367) and touchdown receptions (5) and is tied at first for catches (25).Their chemistry will test the Cardinals’ defense, which has yet to face an offense as dynamic as the Rams’ (3-0). Though both teams are undefeated, the Cardinals (3-0) were saved from a loss to the Vikings in Week 2 by a shanked field-goal attempt and played down to the lowly Jaguars last week. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are unlikely to allow Kyler Murray to again put up video game numbers — he’s averaging 335 yards per game — and Rams Coach Sean McVay has never lost to the Cardinals. He is likely to keep that streak alive. Pick: Rams -6Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week against the Bears, will hound Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins on Sunday.Kirk Irwin/Associated PressCleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Browns -2 | Total: 53Kirk Cousins has yet to throw an interception this season, but the Browns (2-1) are the most complete defense the Vikings (1-2) will have seen.Cousins has thrown for more than 300 yards twice, including last week while running back Dalvin Cook was out with an ankle injury. Cook’s replacement, Alexander Mattison, rushed for 112 yards in his absence. It’s unclear whether Cook will play on Sunday, but if Cook returns or Mattison starts, the Browns’ defense will be up for the challenge. The unit ranks fifth in the league against the rush (201 yards allowed) and second in sacks (14). Meanwhile, Cleveland’s offense last week welcomed back receiver Odell Beckham Jr. from his knee injury. Those factors make betting with the Vikings tough, and the spread may honestly be too low. Pick: Browns -2Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m., FoxLine: San Francisco -2.5 | Total: 52Hello, defense? Is anyone home? Pete Carroll must be asking his team that question after the Seahawks (1-2) allowed opponents to amass over 450 yards of offense in each of the last two games. No amount of Russell Wilson magic can save a game with those defensive performances.The 49ers (2-1) will be eager to play again after narrowly losing to the Packers on a last-second field goal. But they continue to battle injuries on both sides of the ball, with important players like tight end George Kittle (calf) and Josh Norman (lungs) listed as day-to-day. If Seattle can muster some sort of respectable defensive outing for pride’s sake, then the Seahawks could manage to be competitive and cover the spread. Pick: Seattle +2.5Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Broncos -1 | Total: 44Their undefeated record has come against winless opponents, so the Broncos (3-0) will try to get a statement win over the Ravens (2-1), who last week struggled before closing out the Lions. Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be without receiver K.J. Hamler, the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver, who tore his left anterior cruciate ligament in another big loss to the receiving corps after Jerry Jeudy was placed on injury reserve earlier in the season.After an overtime loss to open the season, the Ravens have closed out thrilling victories at home and on the road. They should be able to ride that momentum to give Denver its first loss. Pick: Ravens +1Sunday’s other gamesCarolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Cowboys -4 | Total: 50Losing running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and cornerback Jaycee Horn (foot) should devastate the Panthers (3-0) and their chances of remaining undefeated. With McCaffrey out for “a few weeks,” according to Coach Matt Rhule, receiver D.J. Moore is the Panthers’ best offensive weapon. He is likely to be shadowed by the Cowboys’ top cornerback, Trevon Diggs, who has had an interception in every game this season.The Cowboys will keep up an aggressive offensive attack as the offensive coordinator Kellen Moore tries to exploit a secondary that hastily added C.J. Henderson via trade during the week. Until proven otherwise, expect the Panthers’ offense to backslide and struggle without McCaffrey as its workhorse. Pick: Cowboys -4Washington’s defense has underperformed so far this season. Led by defensive end Chase Young, it could bounce back against the Falcons.Andrew Harnik/Associated PressWashington Footballers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Footballers -1.5 | Total: 48Oddsmakers are essentially predicting a tossup, largely because Washington has not played to its potential. The Footballers’ defense, in theory, should overpower the Falcons (1-2), as Atlanta has rushed for 100 yards only once and is still heavily relying on Matt Ryan’s arm at the ripe age of 36. But the Footballers (1-2) failed to sack Bills quarterback Josh Allen last week, and he dissected them for four touchdowns. Against a weaker offensive line, Washington should find more success. Pick: Footballers -1.5.Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -17 | Total: 48The line on this game is absurdly lopsided and rightfully so. The Bills’ defense generated three turnovers in each of the last two games. It is likely to feast on Davis Mills of the Texans (1-2), who threw for 168 yards and was sacked four times in his first N.F.L. start last week against Carolina. Mills is likely to do more to limit the production of Texans receiver Brandin Cooks than the Bills (2-1). Expect the score to get ugly quick. Pick: Bills -17Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bears -3 | Total: 42.5This could finally be the one.The Lions (0-3) have played competitively in first halves against playoff-caliber teams, and Ravens kicker Justin Tucker had to convert a 66-yard field-goal attempt to rob Detroit of a win last week. That evasive W may come against the Bears (1-2), who posted 1 net passing yard (yes, you read that correctly) and allowed the rookie Justin Fields to take nine sacks against the Browns. Coach Matt Nagy said Fields, Andy Dalton and Nick Foles are all under consideration to start. The Lions could capitalize on that dysfunction. Pick: Lions +3Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Dolphins -1.5 | Total: 43.5Injuries continue to plague the Colts (0-3), most recently with the All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson spraining his ankle and needing to be carted off the field last week. Coach Frank Reich did not rule out Nelson, but said his chances of playing were “not looking good.” Nelson’s availability would help against the Dolphins (1-2), who feature an aggressive and opportunistic defense. Miami’s backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, completed over 65 percent of his passes in an overtime loss to the Raiders in Week 3, showing he can manage the offense efficiently while Tua Tagovailoa’s ribs heal. If that responsible play continues and the defense generates pressure and turnovers, the Carson Wentz experiment in Indianapolis could remain winless. Pick: Dolphins -1.5Giants at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -7.5 | Total: 43.5Giants receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton injured hamstrings in Week 3, potentially removing two of Daniel Jones’s favorite targets. He’ll need every asset the Giants (0-3) can offer to combat the inevitable deafening noise in the Superdome for the Saints’ first true home game of the season. The Saints (2-1), whose defense collected three interceptions last week against the Patriots, could produce a similar outing as Jones throws to receivers on the bottom of the depth chart. Pick: Saints -7.5Tennessee Titans at Jets, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -7.5 | Total: 46Receiver A.J. Brown’s hamstring injury should not stop the Titans (2-1) from winning this game easily, given the team’s other formidable stars, running back Derrick Henry and receiver Julio Jones. The Jets, however, lack such options. The rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions to two touchdowns, and the Jets (0-3) have rushed for more than 100 yards only once. Even a developing defense like Tennessee’s should be able to contain the Jets’ attack. Pick: Titans -7.5Kansas City at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Kansas City -6 | Total: 54.5Kansas City (1-2) has had back-to-back losses only three times since 2018, making this uncommon territory for a perennial Super Bowl contender. They are likely to bounce back against the Eagles (1-2), who took a beating from Dallas on Monday and had a short week to prepare.Kansas City Coach Andy Reid reportedly returned to work Tuesday after being treated for dehydration after Sunday’s game. He will most likely preach ball security to his team, which committed six total turnovers in losses to the Ravens and the Chargers. If the Chiefs can fix those issues, their firepower should be too much for the Eagles’ young offense to respond. Pick: Kansas City -6Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Steelers -6.5 | Total: 45.5The Steelers’ pedestrian offense has been a problem and now faces a Packers team (2-1) that is beginning to click. Pittsburgh’s quarterback weakness has been well documented, but Ben Roethlisberger ranks third in the N.F.L. in passing attempts in large part because the team has yet to rush for more than 75 yards in a game this season and its defense has given up first-quarter leads.The Steelers (1-2) are hopeful outside linebacker T.J. Watt (groin) will be available after missing last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Aaron Rodgers’s output should still far exceed that of the Steelers’ offense. Pick: Packers -6.5Monday’s MatchupThe Chargers’ offensive line has allowed only five sacks of Justin Herbert this season, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), which could put it in a bind against defensive end Maxx Crosby and the Raiders.Kyusung Gong/Associated PressLas Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:15 p.m., ESPNLine: Chargers -3.5 | Total: 52.5With Kansas City figuring out how to end its rut and the Broncos facing their first winning opponent, the Chargers or the Raiders will gain valuable ground in the A.F.C. West. The outcome will come down to whether the Chargers’ new-look offensive line can hold its own against the Raiders’ improved pass rush. The Chargers (2-1) have allowed only five sacks, but Los Angeles’s offense leads the league in penalty yards (243), including notable flags for illegal shifts in a loss to the Cowboys and a narrow win over the Chiefs.This one will have exceptional player matchups to watch — between the Chargers rookie tackle Rashawn Slater and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby, and Chargers safety Derwin James against Raiders tight end Darren Waller — but the Raiders (3-0) may have the edge if running back Josh Jacobs returns after missing two games with an ankle injury. Pick: Raiders +3.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Steelers -4.5, for example, means that Pittsburgh must beat Cincinnati by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      Josh Allen Joined the NFL's Elite. Next Up? Staying There.

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      ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Josh Allen recorded the greatest season by a quarterback in Buffalo Bills history. He powered the team to its first A.F.C. championship game in nearly three decades, and after losing to Kansas City, he left Arrowhead Stadium that January night knowing the Bills would be back.Allen allowed himself a few weeks to decompress from the longest, best and most disappointing year of his young career, and when he was done, a week or two into February, he visited a sock company. There, on the basketball court at Stance headquarters in Southern California, Allen set about refining what his personal quarterback coach, Jordan Palmer, characterized as a “very, very specific” mechanical inefficiency.Allen, 25, loves nerding out on his mechanics, or, really, anything that he thinks can accelerate his development. Of all the traits that enticed the Bills to trade up to draft him out of the University of Wyoming in 2018, beyond physical gifts and a capacity for distilling reams of information into essential shards, paramount was how Allen married a desire to improve with an aptitude for doing so.He spent his childhood on a ranch in California’s flat and fertile Central Valley, and as with the crops his family raises, he didn’t need to see immediate returns. If he worked hard, and with purpose, he knew the results would come.“Some guys have those incredible years, and then that’s who they are,” one such guy, the Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner — who won the league’s Most Valuable Player Award in his first season as a starter — said in a telephone interview. Now an analyst for NFL Network, Warner added: “And other guys just do it that once, and they never quite capture it again. I hope this is who Josh is the rest of his career, but I did not see this coming. I did not know he was capable of it.”Allen’s incredible year — 4,544 passing yards, 46 total touchdowns, second place in the M.V.P. balloting — thrust him into the N.F.L.’s upper echelon. It also, in August, enriched him with a six-year contract extension that tethers him to Buffalo through 2028, an investment in his future with implicit expectations.Allen built himself into a top quarterback for a team constructed to contend for the Super Bowl title that his distinguished forebears of the 1990s could not win. Two games into this season, the central question for the Bills (1-1) is no longer whether they can make the playoffs, but whether they can remain among the N.F.L.’s elite. The answer depends on Allen.Buffalo fans traveled to Miami to see Allen and the Bills thrash the Dolphins, 35-0, in Week 2.Doug Murray/Associated Press“I think there’s two kinds of players in this league: guys that get figured out and guys that figure it out,” Allen said in an interview after a recent practice. “And I was always going to be the guy who figured it out.”Allen’s evolution to this lofty moment toppled a principle of football doctrine: that quarterbacks can’t enhance their accuracy. After selecting Allen in 2018, Bills General Manager Brandon Beane was told that he had just taken a tight end. He knew otherwise.At his job interview the year before, after Buffalo’s 16th consecutive season without making the playoffs, Beane noted that the New England Patriots dynasty had been sustained in part by their three fellow A.F.C. East teams, which regularly changed coaches and front offices.Unseating the Patriots, he said, demanded time and patience, and as he scouted quarterback prospects before the draft he resolved to invest both in Allen.On the farmstead where Allen grew up in Firebaugh, Calif., a small community about 40 miles northwest of Fresno, his family has long nurtured cantaloupe, cotton and wheat — and, more recently, pistachios. Much like Allen himself, their trees need years of cultivation before producing a yield. Allen’s progression from imprecise college quarterback to N.F.L. star took an honest assessment of the transformation he required.“When you lie to yourself, the only person you hurt is yourself,” Allen said. “Being completely honest and understanding that there’s things I need to work on, I’m not afraid to reach out and ask somebody for help.”Rarely does a quarterback improve by vast margins, as Allen did, in his third season.The best predictor of a third-year eruption, according to a May 2020 study by Pro Football Focus, is a proclivity for completing passes. At Wyoming, Allen had connected on a meager 56.2 percentage of his throws, and in his first two seasons in Buffalo, he rated last in the league.To better evaluate Allen, Beane needed to protect him, so in 2019 he signed offensive linemen Mitch Morse and Jon Feliciano in free agency. He bolstered the receiving corps, too, adding Cole Beasley in 2019 and, in a trade with Minnesota in 2020, Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. last season in yards and receptions.“We just feel like, as he’s learned to not try and do too much, if I give him weapons, he won’t feel like he’s got to try and put the team on his back,” Beane said of Allen. “He’ll let these guys make plays.”After reworking his delivery before the 2020 season, Allen found the newly acquired receiver Stefon Diggs often. Diggs led the league in receiving yards and receptions last season.Libby March for The New York TimesAllen could do that because he had reworked his delivery, with the guidance of Palmer and Bills coaches, concentrating each off-season on a single objective: widening his stance, for example, or commanding his off-speed passes. Concentrating on the fundamental components of his motion enabled him to throw more accurately, to any spot on the field, than he ever had. So did offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s preference for calling pass plays on first down, when opposing personnel generally must guard against the run.Never before, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, had any quarterback across a three-season span raised his completion rate as much as Allen did: His jump to 69.2 percent from 52.8 exceeded the previous biggest increase — Jim Zorn’s 15 percentage points with the Seattle Seahawks from 1977 to ’79.After that overhaul, the 38-24 loss to the Chiefs in the A.F.C. championship game demonstrated the Bills’ proximity to being the best team in the league. Over the off-season, they added Emmanuel Sanders, long coveted by Beane, and re-signed two starting offensive linemen. Allen, for his part, recognized that he was no longer in reconstruction mode. His challenge now is to refine what he has done and to nudge the Bills a little deeper this season.Allen, though, is not a nudger. Among the traits that distinguish great quarterbacks from the merely good is situational awareness, and Palmer has discussed with him at length the importance of controlling emotions at climactic junctures, of making prudent choices when the impulse to go all YOLO tugs hard. And after “making the most consecutive good decisions I’ve ever made” last season, Allen said, it’s imperative that he doesn’t get bored with what he called “the easy stuff” — throwing two- or three-yard passes, or flinging the ball out of bounds instead of forcing a bad throw.For the last year and a half, Allen has also worked with a biomechanics expert, Chris Hess, who at various stages of the off-season has gauged Allen’s functional movement and, using 3-D motion capture analysis, digitally mapped his throwing motion. At first, Hess didn’t think Allen was engaged. For every assessment Hess relayed, Allen offered a monosyllabic response. Two weeks later, Hess re-evaluated him, and he was stunned to discover that Allen had retained everything.“I wasn’t moving fast enough for him,” Hess said. “He processes so quick, but he can filter it, too, and be like, ‘That’s important to me.’”Allen wanted to address what his left foot did when he hitched, or bounced forward in the pocket at the end of his drop back, on certain routes — overs from the left and digs from the right. The flaw inhibited his ability to maintain control through the release of the ball. Before he could try new footwork on the field, he needed to retrain his patterns, and the smooth surface of the court at Stance helped Allen do so without sliding.“Whether I’m throwing 30 times a game or three times a game, if I throw three times, I better have made three right decisions on where the ball should be,” Allen said.Sam Navarro/USA Today Sports, via ReutersIn Hess’s experience, quarterbacks typically don’t improve their mechanical efficiency during the season, either because they revert to old motor patterns or they compensate for various ailments that arise. But Allen did in 2020, helping him start from a more advanced place this off-season, when he focused on building lower-body strength and mobility.In a boardroom in New Jersey this month, Hess cued up on a smart television side-by-side images of Allen from the past two Julys, and the difference was stark: Allen became balanced, stable, no longer listing forward as he threw.Standing in a tunnel beneath Highmark Stadium just before the season began, Allen mentioned how attuned he felt — to expectations, his body, his responsibilities.“It’s not about me,” Allen said. “Whether I’m throwing 30 times a game or three times a game, if I throw three times, I better have made three right decisions on where the ball should be.”Allen, though, hasn’t made entirely right decisions so far. After losing to Pittsburgh in Week 1, he suggested he was struggling with his footwork, and despite rebounding to thrash Miami in Week 2, Allen still committed what Pro Football Focus calls turnover-worthy plays — involving poor ball security or passes that have a strong chance of being intercepted — on a career-high 10.8 percent of his snaps.Every snap he takes still seems to generate a greater range of outcomes than a Choose Your Own Adventure novel, and maybe that will never completely change. But week after week, the best quarterbacks are not those who dominate the highlights. They’re the ones who think fast, make smart throws and don’t commit turnovers. Allen can do that — has done that — and if he can do it consistently, then the longest, best, most gratifying season in Bills history might lie just ahead. More

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      What We Learned From Week 2 of the N.F.L. Season

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      Bill Belichick sees a path toward making the Patriots a dynastic contender again, the Cowboys’ talent got a chance to shine, and Sam Darnold looks … happy.There were no shirtless pictures of Bill Belichick from Barbados gracing your screens this off-season.Belichick, the New England Patriots’ head coach, was far too busy to kick back last spring.As a drunken Tom Brady chucked the Vince Lombardi Trophy boat to boat, and as we all declared the quarterback the true driving force in New England all those years, Belichick, the N.F.L.’s Voldemort, plotted his vengeful return. Ego understandably ended this generation’s greatest dynasty. Honestly, it’s a miracle Brady and Belichick coexisted for two decades. Now, ego just may be transforming the Patriots into contenders again.After the Patriots’ first losing season since 2000, Belichick declared himself the fixer this off-season with a $232 million spending spree on his roster. The message was clear in his 47th year as an N.F.L. coach: Give me the horses, and I’ll win with a quarterback on the cheap.And while nobody should ever schedule a Super Bowl parade after a win over the calamity that is the Jets, Sunday served as a quiet warning to the rest of the N.F.L. that Belichick’s Patriots aren’t dead yet.New England’s defense suffocated Zach Wilson throughout a 25-6 win. Once again, Belichick turned a rookie quarterback into a pumpkin. At one point, Wilson had four interceptions and four completions, and you half-hoped Jets Coach Robert Saleh would put the poor player out of his misery by handing him a clipboard.Add it all up, and what we learned most in Week 2 is that there is absolutely a path for the Patriots to be the Patriots once again.Clearly, the Jets are zero threat to win any time soon.The Miami Dolphins (1-1) looked abysmal in a 35-0 home loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. With or without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, this isn’t an offense that’ll scare anyone any time soon. Here’s thinking their Week 1 upset in Foxborough, Mass., was a gift-wrapped fluke.And, yes, the Bills are the defending A.F.C. East champs. Yes, they blasted Miami and, yes, the defense looks phenomenal. The fact is, their franchise quarterback — the very rich Josh Allen — has not looked sharp. He completed only 51 percent of his passes.So what if the Mac Jones Experience in New England is as exciting as a trip to the dentist? We see now why this team was OK washing its hands of Cam Newton. Jones is not overwhelmed by the speed of the N.F.L., Dad bod or not, and that’s all Belichick asks with the roster he has assembled around the position. After paying up for edge rusher Matt Judon, tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, corner Jalen Mills, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and end Henry Anderson — Get all that? — Belichick knew he didn’t need a Superman at quarterback. He needed a distributor who wouldn’t turn the ball over.If that sounds very 1994, he frankly does not care.He let the Jets swing for the fences on a potential Mahomes Lite at No. 2 overall, perfectly content standing pat at No. 15 for a quarterback who completed 77.4 percent of his passes at Alabama. And unlike every other team that drafted a quarterback in April, the Jets did not sign anything resembling a threat or a veteran to challenge or support their rookie. This was Wilson’s gig from Day 1 and, on Sunday, you couldn’t help but wonder if the Jets should’ve found themselves a McCown of some sort.Wilson, the Brigham Young gunslinger, saw more ghosts than Sam Darnold ever dreamed of.After Interception No. 3 — a bizarre floater right to cornerback J.C. Jackson — Jones called an audible at the line and threw a beautiful rainbow to the Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers, in stride, for 24 yards.Such was the theme. This game served as a magnifying glass over two polar-opposite rookies. Wilson wants to play off-script like the three-time M.V.P. he idolized: Aaron Rodgers. His improvisation should at least make another losing season fun for the Jets. When a 315-pounder, Lawrence Guy, barreled in for a sack, Wilson hardly blinked. He juked. He escaped. He kept his eyes downfield before throwing incomplete.This style of play could prove to be special.This style could also get chewed up and spat out by the rest of the N.F.L.Interception No. 4 was even uglier, almost as if New England’s Devin McCourty was Wilson’s intended target.Meanwhile, Jones chugged along. He threw no touchdowns and no picks in completing 22 of 30 passes for 186 yards for the Patriots.Interesting, isn’t it? Through this off-season of quarterback madness, teams bent over backward for the chance at something special. San Francisco unloaded three first-rounders for someone from North Dakota State who played one football game in 2020 (Trey Lance); Green Bay was perfectly fine being publicly embarrassed by its disgruntled M.V.P. for six months (Rodgers); Indianapolis was willing to take on Carson Wentz’s massive contract; the L.A. Rams unloaded two firsts, a third and Jared Goff for a 33-year-old who has gone 74-90-1 in his career with zero playoff wins.The Bills handed Allen a six-year, $258 million contract.The Bears took a swing at every veteran possible before trading up for Justin Fields.And here’s Belichick again zagging as the rest of the league zigs. His defense is highly compensated and loaded. Judon will be worth every penny of his four-year, $56 million deal. Good luck finding a weakness anywhere. And this offense will only get better. Damien Harris atoned for his Week 1 fumble with arguably the best run of the season on Sunday.Harris broke seven tackles on the way to the end zone for a 26-yard touchdown.Beast Mode himself would be proud.OK, Brady’s title for Tampa Bay justifiably has us all questioning who meant more to those six N.F.L. titles in New England. Let’s not write those obituaries on the Patriots quite yet. If this equation leads to a winner, be it 2021 or 2022, nobody will question Belichick again. That’s surely on Belichick’s mind, too.For now, let’s just get the popcorn ready for Patriots-Bucs on Oct. 3.Defensive back Nasir Adderley of the Los Angeles Chargers broke up a pass intended for tight end Blake Jarwin of the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesCowboys’ talent overcomes Chargers’ errors.The Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Chargers of this generation are bound to throw wins away as the seconds wane. Both teams have assembled contenders but something, always something, is bound to go wrong.Sunday’s game, a 20-17 Dallas win, sure seemed to be heading in that direction for both teams.On two consecutive drives, the Chargers had touchdowns wiped out by penalties.First, a holding penalty nullified a Donald Parham Jr. score. (An interception soon followed.) Then, an illegal shift nullified a Jared Cook touchdown when Los Angeles had first-and-goal from the 2-yard line. (The Chargers settled for a field goal.) The Chargers (1-1) finished with 12 penalties for 99 yards.Then, it appeared to be the Cowboys’ turn. With 3 minutes 45 seconds left and the score tied, quarterback Dak Prescott drove Dallas into Los Angeles territory, and the Cowboys (1-1) grew lax. Coach Mike McCarthy, who has had clock management issues throughout his career, inexplicably let precious time bleed off the clock with the ball on the Chargers’ 38-yard line.Nonetheless, with four seconds left, Greg Zuerlein banged in a 56-yard field goal to give Dallas its first win of the season.This will need to be the theme for the Cowboys, a team that has suffered the same problems for 25 years now. In 2021, that talent may be enough to validate the machinations of the ownership, the coaching changes and the constant attention. This was a solid win. We know Prescott is one of the greats, but on Sunday, the Cowboys proved they could win with the run, too. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for 180 rushing yards.Defensively, this isn’t going to be the historically awful unit we saw in 2020. The team’s new defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn, has brought a scheme that is much better than the one Mike Nolan installed via Zoom a year ago, and Micah Parsons gives the Cowboys a playmaking pass rusher that opposing coordinators must now account for every week. A rookie out of Penn State, he was a presence all game with four quarterback hits and one sack.Next time, the Cowboys just may want to gain another 8 yards to be safe.Through his first two games with the Carolina Panthers, quarterback Sam Darnold has looked accurate, decisive and in rhythm. In other words, not like a Jets quarterback.Jacob Kupferman/Associated PressHey, Darnold.There is good news, Jets fans! Your new quarterback isn’t taking any advice from Adam Gase.The Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold — newly Gase-less — was the best quarterback on Sunday in lighting up the same New Orleans Saints defense that throttled Aaron Rodgers a week ago. He shredded the Saints for 305 yards on 26-of-38 passing with two touchdowns in a breezy 26-7 win. Thus far, the Panthers have gotten the most bang for their buck through that quarterback carousel. The marriage between Darnold and the offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, has been perfect two games in.Darnold isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism or his arm strength, but the reason a team drafted him over Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson is finally on display. He’s decisive. He’s accurate. He gets into a rhythm. Brady’s offense isn’t wordy or complicated like Gase’s. It simply has an answer for every type of coverage you can throw at Carolina — and Darnold delivers. After failing to register 200 yards and two scores in any game last season, the former Jet accomplished exactly that in one half against New Orleans.Now, with the right coach and the right weapons, he has a realistic shot to be everything we expected in 2018. And then some.Sunday’s GamesRaiders 26, Steelers 17: Derek Carr has secretively been a top 10 quarterback for a while now and he made one of the best defenses in the NFL look silly. If this is the real Henry Ruggs III, the Raiders’ offense may be here to stay, too. He’s not dinking and dunking all game as you might’ve thought — Carr has developed incredible touch on his deep ball.Henry Ruggs III caught a 61-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr in the fourth quarter of the Raiders’ 26-17 win over the Steelers.Philip G. Pavely/USA Today Sports, via ReutersBears 20, Bengals 17: Nine quarterback hits, four sacks, three interceptions, one pick-6. Let’s pray the Bengals aren’t ruining Joe Burrow off that torn ACL.49ers 17, Eagles 11: Jalen Reagor juuust stepped out of bounds running his route before hauling in a deep touchdown that would’ve completely changed the complexion of this game. Instead, San Francisco recovered to grind out the win.Browns 31, Texas 21: Baker Mayfield shouldn’t try to lay anybody out after his next interception. After giving locals a scare with a shoulder injury — a familiar feeling in Cleveland — the quarterback bounced back to finish 19 of 21 for 213 yards with one rushing score and one passing score.Rams 27, Colts 24: It wasn’t pretty but this is also why Sean McVay traded for Matthew Stafford. The longtime Lions starter is used to rallying his offense in the fourth quarter, and he needed to on Sunday.Broncos 23, Jaguars 13: No Jerry Jeudy, no problem. This Denver offense hummed right along with Courtland Sutton (nine receptions for 159 yards) stepping up as Teddy Bridgewater’s go-to guy. Like Darnold in Carolina, Teddy B in Denver is looking like a steal.Buccaneers 48, Falcons 25: A year ago, this offense was in disarray. Tom Brady wanted one offense. Bruce Arians wanted another. Now? Tampa Bay is already scoring at will and that’s a scary thought. Ten different players accounted for 24 completions as Brady threw five touchdowns in all. Until further notice, the Bucs are the team to beat.Cardinals 34, Vikings 33: When the Vikings decided to re-up Kirk Cousins one year ago, it meant embracing a total rebuild on defense. Mike Zimmer’s entire unit underwent a youth movement for the team to simply get under the cap. And while the Covid-19 pandemic provided an understandable excuse for last year’s issues — and there were plenty — there’s no excuse for how bad Minnesota’s defense has looked through two games. Zimmer has work to do.Titans 33, Seahawks 30 (Overtime): Weird things happen in Seattle. Always. None of us should be surprised that the Titans erased a 24-9 lead in a hostile environment to win. As ugly as the first six quarters to their season were, this remains an offense overflowing with weapons and Derrick Henry isn’t showing the slightest signs of wear and tear. The workhorse back bashed Seattle for 182 yards on 35 carries with three touchdowns. More

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      Bills Cruise in Rout of Dolpins

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      In a rout of Miami, the Bills offense did not even need Josh Allen’s best. He still finished 17 of 33 passing for 179 yards and two touchdowns to take the lead in the A.F.C. East.Every starting quarterback in the A.F.C. East was chosen in the top half of the first round within the last four N.F.L. drafts, infusing a bonanza of dynamic young talent into a division that could be — emphasis on could — sneaky competitive this season.For now, though, it is still very much ruled by the Buffalo Bills, who won the division last year behind a prolific offense and vaulted atop it Sunday behind a ferocious defense. The Bills, after throttling the Miami Dolphins by 35-0, will not know for some time whether this early switch in identity represents an anomaly or the nascent stages of a trend.It was, for sure, an encouraging turnabout after a Week 1 defeat by the Steelers that mocked Buffalo’s off-season coronation as a tad premature. The comprehensive nature of Sunday’s mauling — three first-half takeaways, six sacks, four fourth-down stuffs — demonstrated the potential of a group that didn’t coalesce until much later last season.But two games in for Buffalo (1-1), its offense — even with its five touchdowns Sunday — does not quite resemble the unit that last season passed for loads of yards and scored loads of points and, generally, rampaged up and down the field, smashing records and elevating quarterback Josh Allen into most valuable player contention.The Bills created those championship expectations for this season by returning so many starters and adding receiver Emmanuel Sanders. So too did Allen, who spent the off-season honing his mechanics and building lower-body strength and seemed poised to continue his remarkable trajectory from inaccurate college passer to N.F.L. star.But Allen had misfired on a few critical balls in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh, doomed in part by poor protection, and on Sunday he sprayed passes all over Hard Rock Stadium, completing just 17 of 33 passes for 179 yards. Dolphins cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones — two of the best in the league — smothered Bills receivers. Throws that Allen connected on a year ago fluttered incomplete. Midway through the second quarter, Howard intercepted a pass thrown behind Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, and later an underthrown ball to Diggs should have been picked.Bills Coach Sean McDermott said the offense lacked a rhythm in the first half, and Allen agreed.“We’ve got some stuff to work on,” Allen said.What stymied the Bills’ offense last week amounted to a flawless game plan by Pittsburgh, executed to perfection. Refraining from blitzing Allen, the Steelers generated pressure with a four-man rush and zone coverage. The reality is that few teams have the personnel to stifle Allen and the Bills in that way, and the Dolphins certainly are not one of them. Miami Coach Brian Flores favors man-to-man coverage and blitzes — lots of blitzes — and in the past Allen has made Miami (1-1) regret those choices.Allen has won all five games against Miami since Flores took over the team after the 2018 season, and on Sunday he offset his scattershot passes by leading Buffalo on five touchdown drives. The Bills also went 4 for 4 in the red zone.All Allen had to do to convert the first touchdown was to hand off to Devin Singletary, who raced 46 yards. But Allen finished with two scoring passes, to Diggs midway into the second quarter and to Dawson Knox on the opening possession of the second half. After that, it was 21-0 and the lead felt insurmountable.After winning last week at New England, the Dolphins could have emerged Sunday as the most comfortable division leader in the league. Instead, they fell behind by 14 points midway through the first quarter, lost their quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, to a rib injury, and committed three first-half turnovers, a trilogy of despair: one red-zone fumble, an interception in Buffalo territory and a muffed punt.“Just had a blast,” said Bills safety Micah Hyde, who finished with 7 tackles and one sack.The Bills sacked Tagovailoa twice within the game’s first three plays from scrimmage, and then his day got worse. On Miami’s second possession, Tagovailoa absorbed a blindside clean shot by A.J. Epenesa, who knocked him to the grass as his fourth-down pass meant for Jaylen Waddle sailed incomplete. Tagovailoa spent a few minutes on the ground before walking toward the sideline, clutching his ribs, and heading off to the locker room on a cart.Much like a new homeowner who continues to scour real estate listings after closing, the Dolphins haven’t seemed quite certain about Tagovailoa, yanking him from games during their playoff chase last season and then earlier this month affirming publicly, and privately, that he was their starter despite multiple reports of Miami’s interest in acquiring Deshaun Watson.And now the Dolphins will have to plow forward with Tagovailoa’s status unclear for next week’s game at Las Vegas. They do not see the Bills again until Week 8, and though it is possible that Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones spearheads New England’s rise into contention, it is most likely that Buffalo will be in first place then, as now, as last season, mounting its case as one of the best teams in the A.F.C. More

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      NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread and Predictions

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      Dak Prescott vs. the Bucs’ pass rush, dueling Alabama quarterbacks and a rematch of January’s Browns-Chiefs playoff game make for a compelling start to the regular season.It’s back.The N.F.L. regular season is upon us, with an additional, 17th game for every team, with some hard-earned certitudes. From now until February, the league will try its darnedest to again complete its schedule without interruption — from Covid-19, hurricanes, whatever — until Super Bowl LVI can be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.What happens between now and then, though, is up to variables on and off the field. It’s fair to assume that only a handful of contenders have a shot at a championship, but what about as a week-to-week chaos agent? Well, that role could be filled by nearly any team. This week’s matchups include playoff rematches, the debuts of rookie quarterbacks and the returns of star players from injuries.Here’s a look at Week 1, with all picks made against the spread by a new columnist who takes over the duty for the 2021 season.Here’s what you need to know:Thursday’s OpenerSunday’s Best GamesSunday’s Other GamesMonday’s MatchupHow Betting Lines WorkThursday’s OpenerDallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Buccaneers -8| Total: 52Dak Prescott’s welcome back assignment from an ankle injury that ended his 2020 season will be to outperform Tom Brady while evading the pass rush of the Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions. The Bucs retained all 22 starters from last season, including the defense that sacked Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes twice and hit him nine times in last season’s title game.Protecting Prescott will be trickier without right guard Zack Martin, who tested positive for the coronavirus on Saturday and is unlikely to play. Dallas’s defense, which ranked 28th last season in points allowed, has a new coordinator in Dan Quinn and added linebacker Micah Parsons via the draft. But will that be enough to consistently stop Brady? Pfft. Pick: Buccaneers -8Sunday’s Best GamesJadeveon Clowney, right, joins a Cleveland Browns team looking to avenge a narrow loss to Kansas City in last season’s A.F.C. divisional round.Jason Getz/USA Today Sports, via ReutersCleveland Browns at Kansas City, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -6 | Total: 53A rematch of last season’s A.F.C. divisional playoff gives new players on Cleveland and Kansas City the opportunity to show their value. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection who is playing for his fourth team in four years, will attempt to pressure Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s upgraded offensive line — it has got five new projected starters, including tackle Orlando Brown and guard Joe Thuney — looks to prevent jarring hits like the one in last season’s playoff game that sent Mahomes into the concussion protocol.Odell Beckham Jr.’s return from a knee injury will give Kansas City’s defense another threat to account for. But if Mahomes is well protected, it will be risky to bet against him. Pick: Kansas City -6Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (kinda), 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -4 | Total: 50Hurricane Ida’s devastation in New Orleans caused this game to be relocated to Jacksonville, Fla., adding another disruption to teams whose off-seasons were full of them. The Packers and a disgruntled Aaron Rodgers finally settled their differences for perhaps one final try at a Super Bowl. The Saints, who have operated in Texas since late August, begin the post-Drew Brees era with Jameis Winston at quarterback. His test will be finding targets to carry the load of Michael Thomas, the team’s top receiver who is out for six weeks after having foot surgery in the off-season.The Packers have had roster continuity and have not dealt with similar logistical hurdles. Pick: Packers -4Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Bills -6.5 | Total: 49The Steelers deteriorated toward the end of last season while the Bills improved. Pittsburgh drafted Najee Harris in the first round to boost an abysmal rushing attack that netted only 3.6 yards per attempt, ranking last in the league. But quarterback Josh Allen’s ascent into one of the league’s best players should continue with Buffalo’s addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders to complement Stefon Diggs, who led the N.F.L. in receiving yards and catches last season. Bills fans should get their tables ready. Pick: Bills -6.5Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center, and receivers A.J. Brown, left, and Julio Jones will try to relieve Derrick Henry from the burden of carrying the Titans’ entire offense.Mark Zaleski/Associated PressArizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Titans -2.5 | Total: 52Julio Jones. Derrick Henry. A.J. Brown. The Cardinals’ defense will be the first unit to try to contain Tennessee’s new-look offense. Will it focus on stopping Henry and creep defenders close to the line of scrimmage? Will it double-team Jones and leave Brown in man coverage? Vice versa? Regardless of the strategy, Arizona will do so with a young linebacker corps and questions at cornerback after Patrick Peterson departed in free agency and his replacement, Malcolm Butler, retired during training camp. Even with J.J. Watt now on the edge, countering the Titans’ attack will be more than the Cardinals can handle so early in the season. Pick: Titans -2.5Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m., NBCLine: Rams -7.5 | Total: 45.5The Rams and the Bears added veteran quarterbacks in the off-season and received different receptions from their fans. Los Angeles fans embraced Matthew Stafford as their hope to reach the Super Bowl, while the Bears faithful called unsuccessfully for Andy Dalton to be benched for the rookie Justin Fields. Perhaps Coach Matt Nagy is showing Fields mercy as he starts Dalton against a Rams defense anchored by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. That unit led the N.F.L. in nearly every statistical category last season and, despite losing some free agents, there is enough talent to frustrate Dalton in prime time. Pick: Rams -7.5Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Seahawks -2.5| Total: 49.5The Colts hoped new scenery would resurrect the 2017 version of Carson Wentz, who helped lead the Eagles in the regular season on a run to a title, but a foot injury and a stint on the Covid list robbed him of valuable training camp reps with his new teammates. He’ll face a Seahawks defense that surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league to opposing teams last season but that hopes linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams can turn the unit into a more consistent threat. (Adams’s 9.5 sacks last season were the most ever by a defensive back.)Seattle will lure opponents into trying to keep up with the scoring pace of Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, as it did last year. Wentz will be the first to find out how much tougher that has become. Pick: Seahawks -2.5Sunday’s Other GamesLos Angeles Chargers at Washington Footballers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Chargers -1| Total: 44.5Oddsmakers predict this will be a tossup because the Chargers enter this season as an unknown under their new coach, Brandon Staley. On paper, the team should improve with quarterback Justin Herbert, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Award winner; a remodeled offensive line; and the return of safety Derwin James. But it may take time for the team to fully grasp Staley’s system and for the offensive line to jell. Blocking Washington’s pass rush, led by Chase Young, last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner, is a tough first task. Pick: Washington +1Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Falcons -3.5 | Total: 48The Eagles placed their faith in Jalen Hurts when they traded Carson Wentz to the Colts, and selected his former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith in the first round of the draft to boost a receiving corps often criticized for its lack of production. They’ll relish going up against a Falcons defense that allowed the most passing yards in the league last season.Atlanta focused on improving its offense in the draft, selecting tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 overall pick, and it’s possible that could carry the Falcons in this game. But it is also possible that Philadelphia can upset a team that is somewhere between rebuilding and contending. Pick: Eagles +3.5The rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase, center, was reunited with his L.S.U. teammate Joe Burrow when the Bengals drafted him fifth overall in April. Dylan Buell/Getty ImagesMinnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m., FoxLine: Vikings -3 | Total: 48The Bengals elected to reunite quarterback Joe Burrow with his Louisiana State teammate receiver Ja’Marr Chase in the draft rather than pick up an offensive lineman to protect their second-year quarterback as he returns from major knee surgery. Chase caught only one of five targets in the preseason; the rookie attributed the drops to a lack of concentration. That excuse makes sense with Chase adjusting to playing again after opting out of the 2020 college football season. But his acclimation to the N.F.L. intensifies against a secondary which now includes cornerback Patrick Peterson, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection. Pick: Vikings -3San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m., FoxLine: 49ers -7 | Total: 45It’s full rebuilding mode in Detroit, where the team’s new coach, Dan Campbell, helms a defense that ranked last in yards allowed last season and will try to restore the confidence of Jared Goff, 26, a franchise quarterback the Rams sent packing in the off-season.That fledgling experiment will be fodder for the 49ers’ elite motion-based rush and a San Francisco defense sharpening its teeth after being wiped out by injuries last season. Coach Kyle Shanahan has elected to start Jimmy Garoppolo over the rookie Trey Lance, but either quarterback could win this one. Pick: 49ers -7Jets at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., CBSLine: Panthers -5.5 | Total: 45Sam Darnold gets an early opportunity to show his former team what he could have been with quality coaching and a consistent receiver. Rusher Christian McCaffrey is back after missing much of the 2020 season with various injuries, and Darnold has one of the league’s most underrated receiving duos in D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, who both posted 1,000 yards last season.Zach Wilson, whom the Jets drafted with the No. 2 overall pick to replace Darnold, has his work cut out for him. Pick: Panthers -5.5Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, 4:25 p.m., CBSLine: Patriots -3 | Total: 43.5The Dolphins added receiving threats in Will Fuller V and Jaylen Waddle to help the second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s development as a downfield passer. But that may not be evident in his first game this season against the Patriots, as Coach Bill Belichick will surely employ a plan to confuse the young passer.Tagovailoa faces his successor at Alabama, Mac Jones, who so impressed the New England coaching staff with his ability to process information before and after the snap that they released Cam Newton at the end of camp. Jones will need to draw on that savvy against Miami’s aggressive defense. Pick: Patriots -3Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m., CBSLine: -2.5 Jaguars | Total: 44.5The Texans officially named the veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback, relegating Deshaun Watson to the bench. Their cloudy quarterback situation directly contrasts with Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars’ optimism over Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, is high. The buzz surrounding him and the first-year N.F.L. coach Urban Meyer should pick up even more after they face a Houston defense that ranked 30th in yards allowed last season and got worse after releasing J.J. Watt. Pick: Jaguars -2.5Denver Broncos at Giants, 4:25 p.m., FoxLine: Broncos -3 | Total: 42The Giants’ assessment of Daniel Jones as the franchise’s future gets real insight as he faces a Broncos defense rife with talent. Linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that sidelined him last season, and his presence could disrupt Jones from finding new teammates like receiver Kenny Golladay and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Those additions, along with the Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley’s returning to the lineup, should help the third-year starting quarterback as the season progresses. But against the Broncos’ defense, which should be on the field less because of the risk-averse play of Teddy Bridgewater, it may not be enough. Pick: Broncos -3Monday’s MatchupBaltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m., ESPN & ABCLine: -4.5 | Total: 51The Ravens lost depth at running back when the starter J.K. Dobbins and the reserve Justice Hill both sustained season-ending injuries in training camp. But quarterback Lamar Jackson still commands respect as a runner and passer, and Monday provides him and the team an opportunity to showcase the evolution of their scheme with the addition of the veteran receiver Sammy Watkins. Las Vegas gave up 389 yards per game last season, ranking 30th in the league. The unit hopes to have improved under the new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue, but the Ravens’ experience should give them an edge. Pick: Ravens -4.5How Betting Lines WorkA quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Baltimore -4.5, for example, means that Baltimore must beat Las Vegas by at least 5 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points. More

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      Which A.F.C. Teams Could Challenge Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs?

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      The Kansas City Chiefs fortified their offensive line in pursuit of another championship, but the Bills, Browns and a bevy of first-year starters should shake up the order.With back-to-back trips to the Super Bowl, it’s fair to say that the conference once ruled by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning now belongs to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.But last season’s churn lifted new contenders and stoked new rivalries that could define the next decade for the A.F.C. The Buffalo Bills reached the conference championship and the Cleveland Browns won a playoff game, both for the first time since 1994, and the two franchises are looking to build on that success. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will try to settle their disdain for each other without drawing newly emphasized taunting penalties this season.Though the Texans’ fate is wrapped up in Deshaun Watson’s future, rookie quarterbacks will have their say elsewhere as the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence, Jets’ Zach Wilson and Patriots’ Mac Jones make their debuts. Here’s a look at where the A.F.C. stands as the 2021 season kicks off.A.F.C. EastBuffalo Bills (13-3)Key additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Emmanuel Sanders, RB Matt BreidaKey departures: WR John Brown, CB Josh NormanThe Bills came within one game of returning to the Super Bowl last season, so their priority was to lock in their best talent, starting with quarterback Josh Allen, who signed a six-year contract extension during training camp. To round out what were the N.F.L.’s second-best offense and a middling defense in 2020, the team also re-signed linebacker Matt Milano, guard Jon Feliciano and offensive tackle Daryl Williams, and picked up the fifth-year option on linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and restocked the offensive and defensive lines early in the draft.Miami Dolphins (10-6)Key additions: WR Will Fuller V, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman, RB Malcolm BrownKey departures: LB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan FitzpatrickThe Dolphins were one of the most improved teams in the N.F.L. in 2020, bouncing back from a five-win 2019 season to narrowly miss a playoff berth. To get over the postseason hump, the team gave quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another deep threat in Fuller, to go with DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle, whom the Dolphins drafted sixth overall. Tagovailoa went 6-3 in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns last season, so there’s reason to expect improvement, but if he falters, Brissett’s one-year deal gives the Dolphins a veteran to step in to lead an offense that ranked 22nd in the league last year.New England Patriots (7-9)Key additions: QB Mac Jones, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, WR Nelson AgholorKey departures: QB Cam Newton, RB Sony Michel, S Patrick Chung, OG Joe ThuneyBill Belichick doesn’t like losing and after experiencing his first losing season since 2000, the year he took over in New England, the Patriots’ coach had a very busy off-season. Quarterback Cam Newton clearly was not the long-term solution to the hole left by Tom Brady, but the rookie Jones will face an expedited development after Newton’s sudden release at the end of training camp.Jones benefits from Belichick’s free agent spending in the off-season, when the coach used the league’s second-most cap space to lure in elite tight ends Smith and Henry, who figure to factor heavily in the offense. Defensive back Jalen Mills and linebacker Matthew Judon, who spent five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, round out the summer haul that should alert Buffalo and Miami that Belichick wants his division back.New York Jets (2-14)The Jets took quarterback Zach Wilson from B.Y.U. with the second overall pick in this year’s draft.Matt Ludtke/Associated PressKey additions: QB Zach Wilson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankins, DE Carl LawsonKey departures: LB Jordan Jenkins, LB Tarell Basham, WR Breshad PerrimanAfter a disastrous 2020 season, the Jets and their new head coach, Robert Saleh, need more than just one off-season to fill all the holes in their roster. They began the restock in April’s draft by selecting Wilson, who takes over what was the league’s worst offense, and targeting the secondary by taking five defensive backs, led by Jamien Sherwood of Auburn.Davis and Keelan Cole Sr. should provide receiver depth alongside Jamison Crowder, and running back Tevin Coleman, who arrives in free agency after playing in only eight games for the 49ers last season due to a knee injury, should give Wilson a release valve if he’s healthy.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. NorthBaltimore Ravens (11-5)Key additions: WR Sammy Watkins, LT Alejandro VillanuevaKey departures: RB Mark Ingram II, LB Matthew Judon, DE Yannick NgakoueBy their standards, the Ravens had a down year in 2020 despite finishing 11-5 in one of the league’s most competitive divisions. Opponents found ways to slow the team’s running game and quarterback Lamar Jackson, whose season ended with a concussion sustained during the divisional round loss to the Buffalo Bills.Jackson enters his fourth season no doubt motivated to show why he deserves a big long-term contract extension and Watkins’ deep threat potential should help him make his case. He will also need to adjust to the absence of J.K. Dobbins, the lead running back who suffered a season-ending knee injury during a preseason game, though the Ravens have a capable backup in Gus Edwards.Team executives aiming for a deeper postseason run focused as usual on defense, re-signing linebackers Chris Board, Tyus Bowser and L.J. Fort, to go with a talented backfield that includes Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey.Cornerback Marcus Peters and the Ravens celebrated a fourth-quarter interception in the A.F.C. wild card win over the Titans in January.Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesCincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)Key additions: WR Ja’Marr Chase, RT Riley Reiff, CB Eli Apple, CB Ricardo AllenKey departures: WR A.J. Green, RB Giovani BernardQuarterback Joe Burrow, the first overall draft pick in 2020, saw his disappointing rookie season end in Week 11 when he tore ligaments in his left knee on a brutal hit. Burrow is expected to be back for the season opener against Minnesota, behind an improved offensive line coached by Frank Pollack, who returns to Cincinnati after two seasons with the Jets.Though the team passed over Penei Sewell to reunite Burrow with Chase, who should again give his quarterback a reliable deep threat, it added Reiff to the line on a one-year deal and drafted Jackson Carman, who protected Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, in the second round. Those additions likely won’t be enough to stop the Browns, Ravens and Steelers from continuing to dominate the division, but they’ll suffice if they keep Burrow off the operating table.Cleveland Browns (11-5)Key additions: DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Greg Newsome, S John Johnson, LB Anthony WalkerKey departures: DT Sheldon RichardsonAfter ending the N.F.L.’s longest playoff drought with a wild card win over the vaunted Steelers, the Browns aren’t settling for a victory lap in the 2021 season. General Manger Andrew Berry continued revamping the roster this off-season, with a square aim on a defense that allowed too many clock-sucking drives in 2020.Berry brought in the top available defensive free agent in April, signing Clowney to a one-year deal to complement Myles Garrett in the pass rush, and added Johnson, perhaps the best available secondary player in free agency. Baker Mayfield, who cut down his turnovers in 2020, should benefit from having a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. to target.Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)Key additions: RB Najee Harris, DB Miles Killebrew, OT Joe HaegKey departures: RB James Conner, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB Bud Dupree, T Alejandro VillanuevaThe Ben Roethlisberger era, now in its 18th season, persists. How it will end is the question. Big Ben, 39, seemed to toss off any questions about his rebuilt throwing arm by beginning last season on an 11-0 run. But Pittsburgh couldn’t complete a rally in the wild card round to beat the Browns and the season was dashed well shy of expectations.The Steelers re-signed one of Roethlisberger’s favorite receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and drafted in the first round running back Najee Harris, who broke Derrick Henry’s rushing touchdowns record at Alabama. But the Steelers lost two of their best offensive linemen and with Cleveland on the rise and Baltimore looking for a longer playoff run, the Steelers will have a hard time winning the A.F.C. North again.—Ken BelsonA.F.C. SouthHouston Texans (4-12)Key arrivals: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Rex Burkhead, OT Marcus Cannon, OL Justin BrittKey departures: WR Will Fuller V, C Nick Martin, DE J.J. WattThe 22 pending lawsuits against Deshaun Watson accusing him of sexual misconduct, which he has denied, loom over a franchise that chooses to pretend it’s not at all weird for him to take fourth-team reps at quarterback or serve as scout-team safety — or be with the team at all. Then again, not much makes sense about the Texans, whose front-office dysfunction and salary-cap mismanagement alienated their best players and precipitated a roster, reconstituted with free agents on short-term deals and coached by a first-timer in David Culley, that may luck its way into a victory or two. Or maybe not.Indianapolis Colts (11-5)Key arrivals: QB Carson Wentz, OT Eric Fisher, DT Antwaun Woods, DE Kwity PayeKey departures: QB Philip Rivers, QB Jacoby Brissett, OT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, LB Justin Houston, S Malik HookerNot many teams are constructed and coached as well as the Colts, who went about solving the quarterback quandary prompted by Philip Rivers’s retirement … by acquiring one of the worst in the N.F.L by many statistical measures, advanced or traditional. Carson Wentz has been reunited with Coach Frank Reich and Press Taylor, former mentors in Philadelphia, but is recovering from foot surgery that imperils his availability for Week 1. If Wentz can’t revive his career, a team brimming with talent — guard Quenton Nelson, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and linebacker Darius Leonard all rank among the best in the league at their positions — can expect to struggle, especially with a brutal early schedule.Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)Key arrivals: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Carlos Hyde, DT Malcom Brown, CB Shaquill GriffinKey departures: WR Keelan ColeIn a college hotbed, owner Shahid Khan has entrusted a successful college coach, Urban Meyer, and the best college quarterback prospect in a decade to resuscitate one of the N.F.L.’s woebegone franchises. The Jaguars will be relevant. Whether they’ll be anything more than competitive depends on the progress of, duh, Lawrence, and their brigade of recent high draft picks, defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson, cornerback C.J. Henderson and receiver Laviska Shenault. Alas, the Jaguars couldn’t schedule Florida A&M or Kent State to ease Meyer’s transition; they’ll have to settle for playing the Texans twice.Tennessee Titans (11-5)Key arrivals: WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autry, LB Bud Dupree, CB Caleb FarleyKey departures: WR Corey Davis, TE Jonnu Smith, LB Jadeveon Clowney, CB Malcolm ButlerThe Titans were perhaps the most unbalanced team in the N.F.L. last season — elite offense, woeful defense — and hey, guess what? They very well might be again. Their off-season makeover yielded an inexperienced secondary and a thin group of pass-rushers headlined by Dupree, who is coming off knee surgery.It also netted Jones, who if he stays healthy adds another mismatch in the passing game to complement A.J. Brown. As assembled, the Titans are good enough to win this middling division again, but their chances would improve if they narrowed that gap between offense and defense even a bit.—Ben ShpigelA.F.C. WestDenver Broncos (5-11)Key Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, CB Patrick Surtain II (1st round) CB Ronald Darby, CB Kyle FullerKey Departures: RB Phillip Lindsay, CB A.J. Bouye, TE Nick Vannett, RT Ja’Wuan JamesThe Broncos spent much of training camp evaluating a quarterback battle between a journeyman and a young, inconsistent passer.Teddy Bridgewater, discarded by the Carolina Panthers in a trade, wrenched the starting job away from Drew Lock, who led the league in interceptions thrown in 2020. Bridgewater’s risk-averse play should be a boon to receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Star linebacker Von Miller returns from an ankle injury that kept him out last season, holding down a strong defense that got better for drafting cornerback Patrick Surtain II and adding the veteran Fuller in free agency.Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)Key Additions: OT Orlando Brown, OG Joe Thuney, DT Jarran Reed, OL Austin BlytheKey Departures: OT Eric Fisher, WR Sammy Watkins, OT Mitchell SchwartzThe Chiefs’ depleted offensive line was exposed in last year’s playoffs, first when Mahomes took on a hit by the Browns in the divisional round, and definitively in the Super Bowl, when the Buccaneers sacked Mahomes twice and hit him nine times. General manager Brett Veach addressed the deficiency in the off-season by trading for Brown and drafting 6-foot-5 center Creed Humphrey in the second round. The new-look offensive line should give Mahomes the time in the pocket to find his speedy playmakers instead of relying on him to be one.Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)Key Additions: DL Yannick Ngakoue, RB Kenyan Drake, WR John Brown, OL Alex LeatherwoodKey Departures: WR Nelson Agholor, DE Takkarist McKinley, RB Devontae BookerTight end Darren Waller became the Raiders’ best offensive weapon last season, catching 107 passes and posting over 1,000 receiving yards. Opponents noticed. This season, defenses focused on stopping Waller should be kept honest by running back Josh Jacobs, who earned his first Pro Bowl selection in 2020, and deep threat receiver Henry Ruggs III.The Raiders’ top-10 offense was weighed down by a defense that ranked 30th in the N.F.L. and gave up 389 yards per game. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was brought in along with Ngakoue, who should compliment Maxx Crosby on the defensive line. That unit could hold control over how hot Coach Jon Gruden’s seat gets.Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)After missing all of the 2020 season and 11 games in 2019, Chargers safety Derwin James, right, is back to his pass-stealing ways in Los Angeles.Alex Gallardo/Associated PressKey Additions: C Corey Linsley, OT Matt Feiler, TE Jared Cook, OT Rashawn SlaterKey Departures: TE Hunter Henry, CB Casey Hayward, DE Melvin IngramHad a team physician not accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung, Justin Herbert may never have played last season. But he did, and his stellar performance — throwing for over 4,000 yards, 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions, earned him the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Herbert’s rise was the bright spot in a season in which the Chargers clumsily lost seven games by one score and fired Coach Anthony Lynn.His replacement, Brandon Staley, takes over a revamped offensive line and gets back safety Derwin James, an All-Pro in 2018, who missed 11 games after fracturing his right foot in 2019 and sat out the 2020 season with a torn meniscus. With James healthy, a wild-card berth isn’t out of the question.—Emmanuel Morgan More

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      NFL Playoffs: What We Learned From the Conference Championship

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat We Learned From the N.F.L.’s Conference ChampionshipsThe Chiefs will try to defend their Super Bowl title against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers — who are playing at home.Patrick Mahomes is headed back to the Super Bowl. The 25-year-old has a chance to be the first quarterback to win the game in back-to-back years since Tom Brady did it after the 2003 and 2004 seasons.Credit…Jamie Squire/Getty ImagesPublished More

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      The Bills Rack Up Wins. Folding Tables Get Wrecked.

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyThe Bills Rack Up Wins. Folding Tables Get Wrecked.Though the team prohibits it, Bills fans are carrying on a new table-slamming tradition deep into the playoffs.The outpouring of emotions during this Bills season has proved cathartic, yet bittersweet because coronavirus restrictions prevented fans from attending regular season home games.Credit…Libby March for The New York TimesJan. 22, 2021, 4:12 p.m. ETDevoted N.F.L. fans show their love in lots of ways that don’t make sense out of context. Green Bay Packers fans wear foam blocks of cheese on their heads. Raiders fans paint their faces in black and silver and torment visiting players from their seats in the “Black Hole.” In Kansas City, Chiefs fans drive tricked-out school buses painted in red and gold, the team’s colors.Then there are Buffalo Bills fans, who make the ridiculous look routine. For the past few years, growing numbers of Bills tailgaters have ended their pre- and postgame debauchery by jumping from a high place — the back of a pickup truck, say, or the top of a Porta Potty — and slamming into a folding table. The WWE-inspired idea is to destroy the table, entertain friends (many of whom record the mayhem on smartphones) and get fired up for the game.So when Vincent Spano returned to his home in Buffalo around midnight after the Bills beat the Baltimore Ravens last Saturday, he was not surprised to see hundreds of fans down the street cheering a large man as he jumped off a step stool and crashed onto a table in the middle of a busy intersection. He was also not surprised that a video of the pandemonium that his friend posted on Instagram instantly went viral.“The guy jumped cleanly through it, popped up fine and everyone cleaned it up,” said Spano, a lifelong Bills fan who lives in the Allentown neighborhood, a center city area which now welcomes visitors with a sign that reads “Josh Allentown” in honor of the team’s quarterback, Josh Allen. “It’s all adrenaline and you’re so happy for the Bills, it takes over and you don’t think about it.”For his part, Allen said in an interview that he would jump through multiple tables if the Bills win the Super Bowl.The prevalence of table slamming is part of the frenzy sweeping Western New York as the Bills rumble through their best season since their glory years in the early 1990s, when the team played in four straight Super Bowls, losing all of them. Week by week, as the Bills marched toward their first division title and first playoff win in a quarter century, fans across the region have expressed their joy in bigger and more public ways.Seemingly every storefront in the city includes a ‘Go Bills’ sign. Huge banners celebrating the home team hang in front of city hall. Sales of retro Bills gear at Spano’s store, My Cuzin Vintage, have soared more than 50 percent this season. Restaurants as far away as Erie, Penn., are selling pizzas in the shape of buffalos. A Dick’s Sporting Goods store in Buffalo sold folding tables alongside Bills merchandise. Table slamming has become so closely linked to the Bills that ESPN designed a graphic video of Josh Allen jumping off a bus and onto a table.The popularity of table slamming, reckless as it may be, has coincided with the emergence of the Bills Mafia, a Twitter account started as a joke by three fans that has morphed into a kind of virtual identity for fans to show their passion. The seemingly random way in which these two elements quickly turned into traditions is part of their appeal to Bills fans.“We started Bills Mafia before people started jumping through tables,” said Del Reid, one of the account’s co-founders. Though Reid said he has never table slammed, he said he has no issue with the practice. “As long as people are being safe, however they want to express their fandom is fine,” he said. “People are trying to outdo themselves.”The outpouring during this Bills season has proved cathartic yet bittersweet because coronavirus restrictions prevented fans from attending regular season home games. Most fans made do by gathering with a few friends and family to watch games.Ashleigh Dopp, who could not use her family’s season tickets, turned her garage into a fan cave, complete with a Bills-themed mural, a refrigerator, a television and a heater. Dopp said she has not bought a folding table to slam in the driveway, though she got tossed on a table at a road game a few years ago.“Table slamming is about showmanship,” Dopp said. “It kind of ends your tailgate.”The Bills, though, have a complicated relationship with table slamming. Alarmed by excessive drinking and the violence of table slamming, the team told fans in 2018 that they could face criminal charges, have their tickets revoked, or be ejected from team-run parking lots for destroying folding tables.“The viral videos on social media, it’s embarrassing when we see that,” Andy Major, the team’s vice president of operations and guest experience, told The Buffalo News in 2019. He said a few fans “make a big stink out there — a few knuckleheads who wreck it.”So as the Bills began their postseason run and Gov. Andrew Cuomo allowed about 6,500 fans to attend the team’s two home playoff games, the team is discouraging table slamming in the parking lots surrounding Bills Stadium.Eric Matwijow, who lives a three-minute walk from Bills Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. has no trouble with the policy. He runs a parking lot on game days across the street from his home. Matwijow, whose nickname is “The Hammer” because he strictly polices his patrons before games, said his longtime customers clean up after themselves and don’t get out of hand.He has less tolerance for some of his younger customers, whom he calls “junior adults.” He banned table slamming because “people jump off vans and knock themselves out,” he said. “The power of alcohol can be strong.”Some team backers, though, said they will take their flying leaps on the road. The Bills travel to play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday and are one win away from returning to the Super Bowl. Months ago, Therese Forton Barnes, a Bills season-ticket holder since 1999, reserved a rental house near Tampa, Fla., site of this year’s Super Bowl, to work remotely in the warmer weather. She arrived there this week and one of her first purchases was a folding table that she uses as a desk.If the Bills win on Sunday, she’ll try to get tickets to the Super Bowl and wear the Jim Kelly jersey she brought with her. And if the Bills win their first Super Bowl title, Forton Barnes plans to stomp on her new folding table.“If we win, I may jump through a conference room table,” she said. “Go big or stay home!”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference Championships

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Conference ChampionshipsWith a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, Tom Brady leads Tampa Bay into Green Bay while Josh Allen and the Bills take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.The conference championship games have M.V.P. candidates on each team: Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.Credit…Clockwise from top left: Brynn Anderson/Associated Press; Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press; Jamie Squire/Getty Images; Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated PressJan. 21, 2021Updated 9:42 a.m. ETA complicated and stressful N.F.L. season is nearing its conclusion, with four star-studded teams facing off on Sunday with a Super Bowl appearance on the line. Each of the remaining teams has a Most Valuable Player Award candidate at quarterback, stars at wide receiver and defenses that can make big plays. The questions for this weekend include which of the N.F.C.’s celebrated quarterbacks will make his return to the Super Bowl and whether the upstart Buffalo Bills can knock off the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.Here is a look at the conference championship games. Unlike in the regular season, the picks in the playoffs are not made against the spread to emphasize which teams we believe will win.Playoff record: 8-8N.F.C. Championship GameTampa Bay has numerous receiving options, but Mike Evans, at 6 feet 5 inches, is a dominant force in the red zone.Credit…Brynn Anderson/Associated PressDavante Adams of the Green Bay Packers had a career year, with 1,374 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns.Credit…Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers, 3:05 p.m. Sunday, FoxLine: Packers -3 | Total: 51More than a hundred players will suit up for this game, but the spotlight will fall on two of them: Tom Brady of the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers of the Packers. It isn’t unusual for quarterbacks to command most of the attention, but this matchup goes beyond that.Brady, with more career touchdown passes and more Super Bowl wins than any other player, had a terrific 2020 season, throwing 40 touchdown passes and ending Tampa Bay’s long postseason drought. Rodgers, a two-time winner of the Most Valuable Player Award and one-time winner of the Super Bowl, had perhaps the best season of his career, throwing 48 touchdown passes while leading the N.F.C.’s top team.The quarterbacks have combined to start 551 games, including in the postseason. But largely as a result of playing in different conferences for most of their careers, they have faced off as starters just three times. Two came in Brady’s time with the New England Patriots, with Brady beating the Packers in 2018 and Rodgers beating the Patriots in 2014. They faced each other in Week 6 of this season, with the Buccaneers winning, 38-10. It was the Packers’ lowest scoring game of the year.Brady, 43, has a career edge in accomplishments. Rodgers, who is six years younger, has a physical edge. After a few quiet seasons, by his standards, Rodgers in 2020 used wide receivers Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to shred defenses as the Packers led the N.F.L. in scoring and finished fifth in total yardage. Brady’s statistics were also impressive, but he is more physically limited than he was in the past, frequently relying on talented receivers like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski to turn short passes into long gains.In a more neutral environment, Tampa Bay could have counted on its young defense to shift the balance in the Buccaneers’ favor by pressuring Rodgers. In that scenario, the team would rely on Brady to put up points against a good defense that is not nearly as explosive. But in Green Bay, with snow showers in the forecast and a game-time temperature expected to be around 30 degrees, a team from Florida — even one with a New England icon at quarterback — will be out of its element.The Packers fought hard to secure home field advantage throughout the N.F.C. playoffs, and this game should reward them for that effort, ending the Buccaneers’ attempt to be the first team to appear in a Super Bowl in its home stadium. Pick: PackersA.F.C. Championship GameStefon Diggs was acquired by Buffalo in an off-season trade. He responded with the best season of his career.Credit…Rich Barnes/USA Today Sports, via ReutersTravis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs set an N.F.L. record with 1,416 yards receiving as a tight end.Credit…Reed Hoffmann/Associated PressBuffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:40 p.m. Sunday, CBSLine: Chiefs -3 | Total: 53.5The Chiefs’ pursuit of a second straight Super Bowl victory hit its first real speed bump last weekend when Patrick Mahomes had his neck twisted by a defender as he was dragged to the turf, putting him in the N.F.L.’s concussion protocol and forcing him out of Kansas City’s 22-17 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs iced that victory with key plays by the backup quarterback, Chad Henne, but Mahomes’s absence was palpable in a game Kansas City was expected to win in a blowout.Mahomes has practiced lightly this week while working to be cleared, but there is little fear he will miss the game. As a result, the A.F.C. will get a strength-against-strength matchup between the conference’s best teams of the regular season.The Bills had an offensive renaissance this season thanks to the development of quarterback Josh Allen and the arrival of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. They led Buffalo to the second most points in the league and its first division title since 1995. While the defense took a major step backward from a brilliant 2019 season, a strong performance last weekend against the Baltimore Ravens proved the unit could be great when needed.Buffalo might have to play a perfect game to compete with Kansas City. The Chiefs stormed back to win last season’s Super Bowl behind Mahomes’s brilliance, and lost only two games in the 2020 season — one a meaningless Week 17 game in which Mahomes and other starters were rested. The Chiefs will be at their best if running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns from a Week 16 hip injury, but the offense has plenty of options without him, including wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.The Chiefs are the clear favorites, particularly at home, but Buffalo should not be counted out. If its defense can play the way it did in the divisional round and Allen can avoid mistakes, the Bills can turn this into quite a fight. But the most likely result is a Kansas City victory, which would give the Chiefs the chance to be the first team since the Patriots in the 2003 and 2004 seasons to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Pick: Chiefs.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More