More stories

  • in

    Can Anyone in the N.F.C. Stop Tom Brady and the Bucs From Repeating?

    Tampa Bay returns much of its Super Bowl-winning roster, but Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams have Jordan-and-Pippen-style title dreams for Green Bay.Amid the chaos and reshuffling of an N.F.L. season played during a pandemic, the 2020 season concluded with an all-too-familiar scene: Tom Brady hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.Even at the ripe age of 44, Brady could continue his title-winning ways at the helm of a Tampa Bay team that returns much of its roster. But the Buccaneers’ path to repeat as champion should be tougher, beginning with their Week 1 opponent. The Dallas Cowboys return Dak Prescott, who led all quarterbacks in passing yards through the first five games of last season before suffering a gruesome right ankle injury.Aaron Rodgers, the reigning league most valuable player, and the Packers renewed their vows after having narrowly missed taking down Brady and company in last season’s N.F.C. championship game, thanks to a, umm, notable play call. And the Los Angeles Rams traded with Detroit for the veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford in the off-season, adding fresh blood to the gauntlet that is the N.F.C. West.Will all the retooling around the conference stop another rerun?N.F.C. EastDallas Cowboys (6-10)Key additions: S Keanu Neal, DE Tarell Basham and DE Brent UrbanKey departures: DB Chidobe Awuzie, QB Andy DaltonAfter a disappointing 2020 season, the Cowboys completed their biggest off-season task by signing quarterback Dak Prescott to a four-year, $160 million contract extension. Though it’s risky to guarantee such hefty money, at $126 million, to a quarterback coming off a season-ending broken ankle, Prescott’s absence showed how mightily the Cowboys’ offense depends on him. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back to his college weight, and Prescott will throw to one of the N.F.L.’s best receiver trifectas in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. But that won’t mean much if Dallas’s aging offensive line can’t buy Prescott time to find them. Dak Prescott, left, and Ezekiel Elliott have to like the Cowboys’ shot at winning the wide open N.F.C. East. Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesNew York Giants (6-10)Key additions: WR Kenny Golladay, WR Kadarius Toney, TE Kyle Rudolph, CB Adoree’ JacksonKey departures: DL Dalvin Tomlinson, RB Wayne Gallman, OT Cameron FlemingQuarterback Daniel Jones slid backward in his second year in the league, but, no pressure, team owner John Mara thinks his quarterback can win a Super Bowl. To back up that assertion, the Giants brought in a true No. 1 receiver in Golladay and took Toney with the 20th pick of this year’s draft, a move that stood out for its sagacity. Those additions, with the return of Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley, and the signing of the veteran tight end Kyle Rudolph should all aid Jones’s campaign — if not for a Super Bowl, at least for a contract extension — though they won’t help much if the offensive line continues to struggle. Leonard Williams, who the team signed a three-year, $63 million contract after he posted a career-high 11.5 sacks in 2020, should help generate a pass rush.Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)Key additions: WR DeVonta Smith, S Anthony HarrisKey departures: QB Carson Wentz, WR DeSean JacksonThe Eagles are reworking their roster on the run after overhauling the core personnel that had led the team to three straight playoff berths and a Super Bowl victory. Coach Nick Sirianni replaces Doug Pederson, and the team named the second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was 1-3 in four starts last season, their starter. They added the former Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew in late August but the essential question for this young team is whether Sirianni — who spent the last three seasons as the Colts’ offensive coordinator — can develop Hurts.Washington Football Team (7-9)Key additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel, CB William Jackson III, LB Jamin DavisKey departures: OT Morgan Moses, DE Ryan Kerrigan, QB Alex Smith, TE Jordan ReedCoach Ron Rivera has continued his revamp in Washington by adding the speedster Samuel on a three-year, $34.5 million deal (Rivera coached Samuel with the Carolina Panthers) and bolstering the defensive backfield, while parting ways with stalwarts on the offensive and defensive line. In signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, 38, to replace Alex Smith, Rivera also signaled that Washington is closer to finding a new team name than a franchise quarterback.Washington won the N.F.C. East with a losing record last season (and then gave the eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers a scare in the playoffs) but a second consecutive division title should be tough with an improved Dallas in the running.— Ken BelsonN.F.C. NorthChicago Bears (8-8)Key additions: QB Justin Fields, QB Andy Dalton, RB Damien Williams, TE Jesse JamesKey departures: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Kyle Fuller, QB Mitchell Trubisky, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, OT Charles LenoBears fans grew so loud in their anticipation of rookie Justin Fields, right, taking the starting quarterback spot that Fields asked fans not to boo its current occupant, Andy Dalton.Nam Y. Huh/Associated PressC’mon, Chicago. Let Fields throw a regular-season pass before you name a museum after him, OK? Bears fans are acclimating themselves to an alien phenomenon, hope at quarterback, after the team traded up to draft Fields, the former Ohio State star, with the No. 11 pick. Every decision now revolves around his development, but the people making those decisions are largely the same ones who dealt away draft picks, compromising the Bears’ depth at places like, for instance, offensive line.They should have a solid defense and an elite receiver in Allen Robinson, who will be catching passes from Dalton to begin the season — but, probably, for not much longer than that.Detroit Lions (5-11)Key additions: QB Jared Goff, RB Jamaal Williams, WR Tyrell Williams, DE Charles Harris, DT Michael Brockers, OT Penei SewellKey departures: QB Matthew Stafford, WR Kenny Golladay, WR Marvin Jones, DT Danny SheltonFirst-year coach Dan Campbell has said he begins each day by ordering at Starbucks two venti coffees, each with two espresso shots. All that caffeine might not be good for his heart, but then again, neither is watching the Lions. Brad Holmes, the first-year general manager, traded Stafford, the franchise’s career passing leader, to the Rams for Goff, and gutted the roster.But the Lions are building from the offensive and defensive lines out — a sound strategy — and though that might not help them much in 2021, it could a few years from now, when they have a new quarterback.Green Bay Packers (13-3)Key additions: WR Randall Cobb, WR Amari Rodgers, OT Dennis Kelly, LB De’Vondre CampbellKey departures: RB Jamaal Williams, C Corey Linsley, LB Christian KirkseyThe next 18 weeks (and beyond) are going to be captivating theater in Wisconsin, where Aaron Rodgers may or may not be playing his final games with teammates he loves, but for a front office he doesn’t. There’s no reason to doubt this could be, as Rodgers and Davante Adams suggested in dual Instagram posts before training camp started, a fruitful “Last Dance”-y kind of season for the Packers, who have more talent than any team in the conference that doesn’t have “Bay” in its name. Where Rodgers plays next season will be fascinating, clearly. But not as much as how he and his team handle this one.Minnesota Vikings (7-9)Key additions: DT Sheldon Richardson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Bashaud Breeland, S Xavier WoodsKey departures: RB Mike Boone, TE Kyle Rudolph, OT Riley Reiff, LB Eric WilsonEntering quarterback Kirk Cousins’s fourth season in Minnesota, the Vikings have yet to win the N.F.C. North. Unless the Packers’ team buses get detoured to Idaho every game day, that streak isn’t likely to end. Still, the Vikings have a raft of elite players — running back Dalvin Cook, receiver Justin Jefferson and defensive end Danielle Hunter — and their off-season additions improved a defense that Coach Mike Zimmer last season called the “worst one I’ve ever had.”At the least, Minnesota figures to be average. At best, it could win double-digit games, good enough to snag a wild-card berth.— Ben ShpigelN.F.C. SouthAtlanta Falcons (4-12)Key additions: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, TE Kyle Pitts, RB Mike Davis, S Duron HarmonKey departures: C Alex Mack, WR Julio Jones, S Ricardo Allen, S Keanu Neal, DE Charles Harris, CB Darqueze Dennard.No team imploded as spectacularly — or as often — as the Falcons, who lost nine (!) games that they led last season. In theory, that won’t happen again. Any expectations beyond that? ¯_(ツ)_/¯The Falcons, under new leadership at coach (Arthur Smith) and general manager (Terry Fontenot), are in transition. After trading Jones and bypassing a potential Matt Ryan successor in order to draft Pitts at No. 4 overall, Atlanta seems to be walking up a down escalator. The onus will be on the defensive coordinator, Dean Pees, who was lured out of retirement, to generate loads of pressure — and on Ryan to generate loads of points. With Ryan working in a play-action heavy offense that resembles the one from his 2016 M.V.P. season, it might be possible. In theory.Carolina Panthers (5-11)Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, LB Haason Reddick, OT Cameron Erving, CB Jaycee HornKey departures: WR Curtis Samuel, RB Mike Davis, QB Teddy Bridgewater, LG Chris ReedThe Panthers acquired Darnold from the Jets this spring in the hopes that extricating him from the Jets’ juju — and surrounding him with, you know, better players — might unlock his promise. Bold strategy. In season 2 under Coach Matt Rhule, Carolina’s prospect of contending is rooted in too many hypotheticals (if Darnold can rebound, if running back Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy, if its young defense can coalesce) to take seriously.New Orleans Saints (12-4)Jameis Winston will step into the quarterback spot owned for 15 seasons by Drew Brees when the New Orleans Saints open the season with a “home” game against the Packers in Jacksonville.Derick Hingle/Associated PressKey additions: TE Nick Vannett, DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE Payton TurnerKey departures: QB Drew Brees, DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Malcom Brown, CB Janoris Jenkins, CB Patrick RobinsonSweet mercy, the Saints lost a lot of talent in addition to Brees. The team’s viability hinges on whether Coach Sean Payton can coax efficient quarterback play — and respectable ball security — from Jameis Winston over a full season. Either way, Winston is their best internal option, and he should benefit from playing behind a talented offensive line. Payton relishes the chance to put Winston and Taysom Hill on the field together. Good thing, too.The defense powered the Saints last year, and with their overall playmaking cast diminished — the star receiver Michael Thomas is out indefinitely as he recovers from ankle surgery — that unit might need to offset their offensive volatility.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)Key additions: RB Giovani Bernard, DE Joe Tryon, OT Robert HainseyKey departures: C A.Q. Shipley, LB Deone BucannonMoving some beads around the ol’ abacus, Tampa Bay’s front office performed a modern miracle in this salary-cap era: The Buccaneers managed to retain all 22 starters from the team that dusted Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Their roster, the best in the N.F.L., is loaded with absurd amounts of star power — from receiver Chris Godwin to linebackers Shaquil Barrett and Lavonte David — but also depth at every position except, perhaps, quarterback.That isn’t necessarily a problem, since Tom Brady is fated to start there until the sun collapses. Brady quarterbacked the last team to repeat as champions — the 2004 New England Patriots — and anything less than another title for Tampa Bay, which would be his eighth, would be a disappointment.— Ben ShpigelN.F.C. WestArizona Cardinals (8-8)Key additions: DE J.J. Watt, WR A.J. Green, RB James Conner, LB Zaven CollinsKey departures: CB Patrick Peterson, RB Kenyan DrakeIn two seasons, Coach Kliff Kingsbury has yet to lead the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs. Should his team fail to reach the postseason in 2021, Kingsbury may be seeking employment elsewhere. The Cardinals return a talented roster led by quarterback Kyler Murray and receiver DeAndre Hopkins. They added veteran contributors on both sides of the ball by signing Watt and Green. Despite strong opposition in the division, any finish less than playing a game on Wild-Card weekend will be a disappointment.For the second season in a row, the Texans’ loss has been the Cardinals’ gain as J.J. Watt joined his former teammate DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona.Rick Scuteri/Associated PressLos Angeles Rams (10-6)Key additions: QB Matthew Stafford, WR DeSean Jackson, RB Sony Michel, WR Tutu AtwellKey Departures: S John Johnson III, CB Troy Hill, TE Gerald Everett, QB Jared GoffStafford’s arrival in Los Angeles dramatically elevates the Rams’ expectations as the team welcomes fans to its $5.5 billion stadium, which will host this season’s Super Bowl. The team returns a stout defense led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but any hope of a championship run depends on Stafford, whose 45,109 career yards rank fifth among active passers, but who, at 33, has not won a playoff game in three tries.Coach Sean McVay will look to unleash the offense behind Stafford and with Sony Michel, whom the team traded for to shore up a running back rotation that lost starter Cam Akers to a torn Achilles’ tendon before training camp.San Francisco 49ers (6-10)Key additions: QB Trey Lance, C Alex Mack, LB Samson EbukamKey departures: WR Kendrick Bourne, RB Tevin Coleman, DE Kerry Hyder Jr., CB Ahkello WitherspoonThe 49ers traded three first-round picks to the Miami Dolphins to draft Lance third overall this spring. He’ll eventually replace Jimmy Garoppolo, but how soon that transition occurs depends on Garoppolo’s health and Lance’s learning curve. Since Garoppolo has played a 16-game season only once with San Francisco, and Lance showed steady improvement in the preseason, figure on his time coming sooner than later.The team returns key starters to a defense that was decimated by injuries and boasts a potent rushing attack based on motion before the snap and passes behind the line of scrimmage.Seattle Seahawks (12-4)Key additions: TE Gerald Everett, OG Gabe Jackson, DT Robert NkemdicheKey departures: CB Shaquill Griffin, RB Carlos Hyde, DT Jarran ReedRussell Wilson, tired of continually being sacked by Aaron Donald and other pass rushers in the N.F.C. West, caused a stir this off-season by asking for more of a say in roster decisions. Despite the fracas, and that the team did not dramatically improve its offensive line, Wilson is back and trying to make it work in Seattle, where his chemistry with DK Metcalf resulted in 1,303 yards receiving, good for sixth among wideouts last season.In August, Seattle made Jamal Adams the highest-paid safety in the league with a four-year extension reportedly worth $70 million, in an effort to improve the defense, which allowed the 11th-most yards in the league.— Emmanuel Morgan More

  • in

    How Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Packers for a Super Bowl berth.

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyNFL Live: Mahomes’ Masterful Performance Extends Chiefs Lead Over BillsHow Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat the Packers for a Super Bowl berth.Jan. 24, 2021, 6:26 p.m. ETJan. 24, 2021, 6:26 p.m. ETAfter the game, Coach Bruce Arians was asked what Tom Brady had brought with him to Tampa Bay. “The belief he gave everybody in the organization that this could be done,” he said. “It only took one man.”Credit…Matt Ludtke/Associated PressIn March, seeking a rewarding second chapter to a glittering career, Tom Brady signed a $50 million free-agent contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after 20 seasons and six Super Bowl victories as quarterback for the New England Patriots. The hope in Tampa was that Brady’s megawatt celebrity and proven talent could sprinkle a little stardust on a middling N.F.L. franchise and perhaps vault it to the league’s upper echelon.On Sunday, Brady and the Buccaneers got their wishes. And maybe more.In a stirring, tense duel between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Brady and the Buccaneers held off a late charge by Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers for a 31-26 upset victory in the N.F.C. championship game in Green Bay, Wis. The Buccaneers will become the first N.F.L. team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium, on Feb. 7.After the game, when Coach Bruce Arians was asked what Brady had brought with him to Tampa Bay, he said: “The belief he gave everybody in the organization that this could be done. It only took one man.”Brady, in a postgame interview, tried to deflect credit for the victory, but said: “Who would have even thought a home Super Bowl for us? But we did it.”Addressing Buccaneers fans, Arians shouted: “We’re coming home, and we’re coming home to win.”Tampa Bay, which has won three successive postseason games on the road this month, took an 11-point halftime lead on two Brady touchdown passes. The Packers, the top seed in the conference, stormed back, trimming the deficit to 5 points late in the third quarter. But Brady, who will be making his 10th Super Bowl appearance, led fifth-seeded Tampa Bay to a pivotal fourth-quarter field goal, and the Packers failed to score a touchdown on a crucial, late possession despite a first-and-goal at the Buccaneers’ 8-yard line.The Buccaneers will play the winner of Sunday night’s A.F.C. championship game, between the Buffalo Bills and the host Kansas City Chiefs, in the Super Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. Brady, 43, will become just the fourth quarterback to lead two franchises to the Super Bowl. It was also done by Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning and Craig Morton.For Rodgers, who won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2010 season, Sunday’s loss was his fourth in a conference championship game.With both teams depleted by injuries — the Packers were without running back Aaron Jones and Tampa Bay was missing both starting safeties — Green Bay charged back from an 18-point deficit with two third-quarter touchdown passes by Rodgers, who completed 33 of 48 passes for 346 yards. The Packers, assisted by a penalty for a helmet-to-helmet hit near the goal line, cut the Tampa Bay lead to 5 points after a 2-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers to Davante Adams. Green Bay attempted 2-point conversion was unsuccessful, and it trailed Tampa Bay, 28-23.The Packers’ rally was greatly assisted by three interceptions thrown in the second half by Brady, who completed 20 of 36 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns. But only one of those interceptions led to a Packers touchdown. More significant was Green Bay’s last possession, when Rodgers led his team to the Tampa Bay 8-yard line with the chance to tie the game with a touchdown and a successful 2-point conversion. Rodgers instead threw three successive incompletions — the last two directed at Adams — and Green Bay settled for a field goal rather than trying for the end zone again on fourth down with slightly more than two minutes remaining.That decision proved consequential since the Packers never possessed the football again.After the game, Rodgers called his future with the team “uncertain.” The Packers traded up to select quarterback Jordan Love from Utah State in the first round of the 2020 N.F.L. draft, which led to some friction between Rodgers and the franchise.“There’s a lot of unknowns going into this off-season now,” Rodgers said Sunday. “I’m just going to have to take some time away for sure and clear my head and just kind of see what’s going on with everything. But it’s pretty tough right now, especially thinking about the guys that may or may not be here next year. There’s always change. That’s the only constant in this business.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    NFL Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Divisional Round

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyN.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks in the Divisional RoundThe A.F.C.’s young quarterbacks fight for a trip to the conference championship, while veterans, and defense, lead the way in the N.F.C.Jalen Ramsey of the Los Angeles Rams, foreground, largely nullified D.K. Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks, lying on field, in three meetings this season. Can he neutralize Green Bay receiver Davante Adams?Credit…Steph Chambers/Getty ImagesJan. 14, 2021, 12:01 a.m. ETFew thought the Los Angeles Rams or the Cleveland Browns would get this far, and the Buffalo Bills had far more success than could be expected. The Baltimore Ravens stormed back into contention, a pair of 40-something quarterbacks will face off in New Orleans and everyone is (or should be) scared of the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The wheat has been separated from the chaff, and the divisional round will narrow things further.Here is a look at this weekend’s N.F.L. playoff matchups. Unlike in the regular season, the picks are not made against the point spread.Saturday’s GamesLos Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers, 4:35 p.m., FoxLine: Packers -6.5 | Total: 45.5Much will be made about the relationship between Coach Sean McVay of the Rams and Coach Matt LaFleur of the Packers. LaFleur served as McVay’s offensive coordinator in 2017, and they were offensive assistants together on Washington’s staff from 2010 to 2013. They are key figures in an offensive revolution, but if you are hoping for a high-scoring affair, you might want to try another game.Green Bay led the N.F.L. in scoring thanks to a turn-the-clock-way-back season from Aaron Rodgers that has him in contention for the Most Valuable Player Award. His success came with help from the running of Aaron Jones (1,459 yards from scrimmage), the vertical threat of Marquez Valdes-Scantling (20.9 yards per reception) and the all-around brilliance of Davante Adams (115 catches, 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns).But if there is a team designed to slow the Packers, it is the Rams.Few defenses can match the relentless pass rush of Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, and while Rodgers does not fluster easily, the few times he has shown weakness in recent years have come when he is under consistent pressure. Complicating matters is the absence of the star left tackle David Bakhtiari, whose season ended with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Week 16.Jones could be neutralized by a Rams front seven that ranked third in the N.F.L. in run defense — yes, Donald leads the way there too. Green Bay relying on the home run threat of Valdes-Scantling is risky thanks to his propensity for dropped passes.That leaves the most intriguing matchup as the one between the shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Adams, who can make a case as the N.F.L.’s best, and most underappreciated, current receiver.“You know me, I’d like to go against anybody and have good-on-good as much as possible,” Adams said this week when asked about Ramsey.On neutral ground, and with equal health, this could add up to a Rams upset. But Green Bay fought hard to gain the home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that hard work could be the team’s saving grace. It is expected to be around 30 degrees at kickoff in Green Bay, Wis., and Rams quarterback Jared Goff is only a few weeks removed from surgery on the thumb of his throwing hand. He appeared to struggle with his grip last week, and the cold, combined with a good-enough Packers defense, should give Green Bay all the edge it needs. Pick: PackersLooking for his first playoff win against the Titans, Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens took care of things himself. He led his team with 136 yards rushing last week.Credit…Wesley Hitt/Getty ImagesBaltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, 8:15 p.m., NBCLine: Bills -2.5 | Total: 50The Ravens have not lost a game since Dec. 2. The Bills have not lost one since Nov. 15. Both have weatherproof offenses and defenses capable of game-changing plays. And both overcame some psychological weight in the wild-card round — Buffalo got its first postseason victory since the 1995 season; Lamar Jackson of the Ravens won a playoff game for the first time.There are myriad reasons to pull for both teams — and a persistent belief that either team advancing is just signing up to lose to Kansas City in the next round — but it is hard to believe that Buffalo, even at home, can slow Baltimore’s juggernaut running game.When the Ravens hit the “reset button” after a midseason lull, the team focused nearly all of its attack on the running of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. That led to Baltimore’s rushing for 230 or more yards in four of its final five games of the regular season, including a ludicrous 404 — the fifth-most rushing yards in N.F.L. history — in a Week 17 win over Cincinnati. That kept up in the wild-card round, with the Ravens running for 236 yards.Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense this season, but that ranking would have been worse had teams not been forced to pass to keep up with the Bills’ electric offense. That shows up in the fact that Buffalo ranked among the N.F.L.’s six worst run defenses in yards per carry (4.6) and rushing touchdowns allowed (21).The Bills’ defense has several players capable of serious disruption, but much of that comes in the secondary. On a chilly day in Orchard Park, N.Y., the Ravens could focus on running the ball, and it is hard to see the Bills being able to stop them. Buffalo’s offense can’t be counted out, even against a solid Ravens defense, but Baltimore should control the clock and the game. Pick: RavensSunday’s GamesM.J. Stewart of the Cleveland Browns made an incredible interception of a Ben Roethlisberger pass last week. It was Cleveland’s second takeaway in the first five minutes of the game.Credit…Joe Sargent/Getty ImagesCleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs, 3:05 p.m., CBSLine: Chiefs -10 | Total: 56.5For all intents and purposes, Cleveland advanced to the divisional round after slightly more than 13 minutes of its wild-card game against Pittsburgh. A playoff game has rarely gone sideways so quickly, with the Browns’ defense forcing three quick turnovers and their offense handling its end of the deal by running up a 28-0 lead with 1 minute 56 seconds left in the first quarter.The Browns’ 48-37 win should not be written off as a fluke — Cleveland has its best team since Coach Bill Belichick was roaming the sideline in the mid-1990s — but taking advantage of Ben Roethlisberger’s mistakes is a lot different from forcing Patrick Mahomes into some, so expecting a repeat of that lightning-fast start would be foolish.Kansas City might get running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire back from a scary-looking hip injury in Week 15. Even if they don’t, a combination of Le’Veon Bell and Damien Williams provides enough balance that Mahomes should be able to shred Cleveland’s secondary with deep passes to wide receiver Tyreek Hill and throws underneath to tight end Travis Kelce.Cleveland’s offense has occasionally shown some burst — last week’s effort was the franchise’s highest-scoring postseason game since the 1954 N.F.L. championship — and the Browns can chew up the clock thanks to the superb combination of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. But even Baker Mayfield’s most ardent believers should struggle to take him in a head-to-head matchup with Mahomes. The Browns aren’t pushovers, but they probably cannot do much to stand in Kansas City’s way. Pick: ChiefsTampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, 6:40 p.m., FoxLine: Saints -3 | Total: 52The oldest starting quarterback left in the A.F.C. playoffs is Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t turn 26 until April. Three of the four starters in that conference were first-round picks in the 2018 draft. By the time any of the four had started a game in the N.F.L., Tom Brady had already won five Super Bowls and Drew Brees was closing in on Dan Marino’s record for career passing yards.The young players have largely reimagined the quarterback position, using their mobility to empower their passing while contributing to a leaguewide scoring explosion. Yet Brady and Brees, museum-quality examples of a forgotten age of pocket passers, carry on, leading serious Super Bowl contenders in the second week of the playoffs.In truth, this game shouldn’t be defined just by its famous quarterbacks. Brees’s Saints had plenty of offense this season — running back Alvin Kamara led the N.F.L. with 21 total touchdowns — but relied just as much on the defense, which Dennis Allen, the team’s defensive coordinator, built into a powerhouse.Tampa Bay has a talented young defense as well — the support on that side of the ball undoubtedly played a role in Brady’s decision to sign there — and in recent weeks, the Buccaneers have started to truly click on offense. The team’s wealth of receiving options — wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown; tight end Rob Gronkowski — powered Brady to his best statistical season since at least 2017 and one of the best of his career.The regular-season meetings between these teams were laughable. The Saints won both, with a combined score of 72-26. And they are playing at home, which plays a role for them even if the impact is lessened by the tiny crowds that the team is allowed to host. The Buccaneers are a good enough team that they should be respected — in many ways, this feels like a tossup — but the Saints are rightly narrow favorites in what could be the most competitive game of the weekend. Pick: Saints.All times are Eastern.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

  • in

    Asking the N.F.L. Playoff Questions That Need Answers

    AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyAsking the N.F.L. Playoff Questions That Need AnswersCan Tom Brady keep the momentum going? Is Seattle’s defense good again? Can anyone beat the Chiefs?Underestimate Patrick Mahomes at your own peril. Kansas City — before its backups lost Sunday to the Chargers — won seven consecutive games.Credit…Rob Carr/Getty ImagesBen Shpigel and Jan. 7, 2021, 2:00 a.m. ETTo play football amid a pandemic, N.F.L. players worked from home a lot. They took coronavirus tests daily. And when they did report to team facilities, they were required to wear a mask.It has been a weird season. And chances are it’s going to get weirder.The playoffs begin Saturday, and even more than in years past, no one has even an inkling how they’re going to unfold. With an expanded 14-team field, consecutive triple-headers this weekend could compound the craziness and we’re still four-and-a-half weeks (hopefully) from the Super Bowl.Below, we try to sift through the chaos and ask the questions that will define the upcoming postseason. We even try to answer them, too.Is there a better quarterback-receiver tandem than Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams?Aaron Rodgers is the leading candidate for the M.V.P. Award in part because of his synchronicity with Davante Adams, whose enormous catch radius and red zone efficiency are among the league’s best.Credit…Raj Mehta/USA Today Sports, via ReutersNo.Oh, should we keep going?On a tequila-streaked vindication tour after Green Bay drafted his potential successor in the first round, Rodgers reached the precipice of his third Most Valuable Player Award by throwing again and again to Adams, who finished with 115 receptions for 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns and grabbed almost every ball in his radius: 115 of 116 passes deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus, tied for the best rate in the N.F.L.Overall, Rodgers’s outstanding ball placement and aptitude for leading receivers helped Adams gain 592 yards after the catch, the most at his position. But their partnership truly thrived in the red zone, that chaotic space inside the opposition’s 20-yard line where passing lanes shrink and trust between quarterbacks and receivers is most critical. There, Adams, despite missing two games with an injury, caught 23 passes and scored 14 touchdowns, both most in the N.F.L. in that area.So, all love for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, whose mind meld transformed Buffalo’s offense, and Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, who wrecked defenses downfield as they generally have with Kansas City. But the telepathy between Rodgers and Adams, cultivated across seven years together, powered their season to remember — and, they hope, a playoff run they won’t ever forget.Which A.F.C. team has the best chance of beating the Chiefs?Bills quarterback Josh Allen became the first player with at least 4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. Credit…Adrian Kraus/Associated PressThe Chiefs (14-2) have been the N.F.L.’s metronome in recent years — consistently scoring, winning, dazzling. But a recent disturbance in the force has stripped their sheen ever so slightly. Struggling to bury opponents as they did during last December’s surge, Kansas City — before its backups lost Sunday to the Chargers — won seven consecutive games by six points or fewer.Underestimate Coach Andy Reid, Mahomes and the crew at your own peril. Still, the A.F.C. is rife with teams positioned to scare Kansas City, and that group is fronted by a contender that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 1995 season, a little over four months before its current quarterback was born: the Buffalo Bills.Reining in his carpe diem approach, Josh Allen, 24, became the first player with at least 4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. The league’s most improved player, Allen guided the Bills to nine victories in their final 10 games — their only loss in that span came via a Hail Murray flung into triple coverage in Arizona.The Bills, the No. 2 seed in the A.F.C., rank among the league leaders in takeaways. During their six-game winning streak to end the regular season, no team scored more points or had a greater point differential, winning by an average of 19.8 points, according to Pro Football Reference.The Chiefs did beat Buffalo earlier in the season. But could they do it again? The Bills would love to get a chance to answer that question in the A.F.C. championship game.Can Tom Brady and the Buccaneers beat good teams?Tom Brady’s best four-game stretch in Tampa Bay came in the team’s final regular season games against some of the N.F.L.’s worst defenses.Credit…Mike Ehrmann/Getty ImagesAlternately exciting and exasperating, overpowering and underwhelming, the Buccaneers (11-5) rolled into their first postseason in 13 years by winning their last four games, which just so happened to be Tom Brady’s best four-game stretch in Tampa Bay: He had 333.3 passing yards per game, 12 touchdowns, one interception and a 126.9 passer rating. That it all came against some of the league’s sadder defenses — Detroit, Minnesota and Atlanta twice — is irrelevant to the Buccaneers, who were just glad to see it. But now they must try to replicate that production against better competition.And that is where Tampa Bay has struggled. Facing teams that made the playoffs, the Buccaneers went 1-5. In four of those losses Brady threw multiple interceptions, and in an otherwise impressive season — he threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns at age 43 — those were the only games in which he had more than one.The Buccaneers’ roster — the linebacker trio of Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David and Devin White hold down the defense while Brady has Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, to throw to — is loaded. So loaded that their performance shouldn’t be so volatile.With the Bucs matched up with a 7-9 Washington team, not exactly better competition, maybe they won’t be. But speaking of Washington …Can the winner of the historically dreadful N.F.C. East actually win a playoff game?Chase Young, likely the league’s top defensive rookie, has made it known that he wants to sack Tom Brady.Credit…Chris Szagola/Associated PressIn offering up the Footballers in the wild card round, the division is putting forth the team best suited to upset Tampa Bay and here’s why: pressure.No quarterback likes it. But some are better at handling it than others. This season, though Brady’s offensive line largely did well at keeping him upright, he had the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus, and had a 54.5 passer rating — lower than that of Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold in that situation.Washington bedeviled quarterbacks with its superb defensive front, led by the first-round picks Jonathan Allen (2017), Daron Payne (2018), Montez Sweat (2019) and Chase Young (2020), likely the league’s top defensive rookie, who skipped into the tunnel following the team’s division-clinching victory over Philadelphia yelling, “Tom Brady, I’m coming. I want Tom.” Young has been saying as much since the N.F.L. scouting combine.The Footballers ranked sixth in pressure rate and in sacks, and tied for second in yards allowed per play. If they, too, can unnerve Brady, then Washington, only the third team ever to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record, perhaps (maybe, possibly) could join the other two — the 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers — in winning its playoff opener, as well.How far can Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey take the Los Angeles Rams?Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a lockdown defender charged with shadowing the game’s best receivers.Credit…Kyusung Gong/Associated PressAfter the highest-scoring regular season in league history, teams’ playoff hopes hinge on how fast and in what volume they can put up points. The Rams, ranked 22nd in offense, matched the Bears in points, finishing ahead of only Washington among the playoff teams.It’s ever more obvious that the Rams — after needing to beat Arizona in Week 17 just to secure a playoff spot — are as unbalanced as a weighted seesaw. A once-formidable offense has sputtered under Jared Goff’s command, placing the onus on the league’s stingiest defense — first in yards and points allowed — to drive Los Angeles’s playoff hopes. Fortunately for the Rams, they face a familiar opponent in the division-rival Seahawks. Across their two regular-season meetings, they sacked Russell Wilson 11 times, and Ramsey — who allowed an absurdly low 20.6 yards per game in his coverage, according to Pro Football Focus — all but defused star receiver DK Metcalf, holding him to one reception for 11 yards on four passes thrown his way.If the Rams beat the Seahawks and New Orleans defeats Chicago, Los Angeles would travel to play the Packers. Ramsey draping Adams, while Donald and his mates pester Rodgers — oh, what fun that could be.How dangerous does Baker Mayfield have to wake up feeling for the Browns to win?Baker Mayfield threw more touchdowns than in 2019, his fewest interceptions as a pro and finishing with 3,563 yards passing in an offense that demanded he play safely.Credit…Jason Miller/Getty ImagesIn his rookie season, Mayfield famously told reporters ahead of a late-season win, “when I woke up this morning, I was feeling pretty dangerous,” which spawned a downtown Cleveland mural, ignited the fanbase — and became a punchline in losing seasons hence.Now in the team’s first playoff game in 17 seasons, where it will face the Steelers (12-4), Mayfield will be credited with helping lead Cleveland (11-5) to its best record since the franchise was resurrected in 1999 and the success should help his on-field reputation catch up some to his off-field notoriety.Yes, Mayfield helped get them there by throwing more touchdowns than in 2019, his fewest interceptions and finishing with a modest (by 2021 standards) 3,563 yards passing in an offense that demanded he play safely — which he did, at least compared with previous seasons. But the Browns’ run hasn’t solely hinged on their quarterback.Cleveland is fueled by an exceptional running-back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and an exceptional offensive line. At their best, the Browns rampage across the field on the ground. They’re 8-2 when Mayfield attempts 30 or fewer passes and 6-0 when they rush for more than 150 yards.Mayfield is still prone to bouts of inconsistency but, within a balanced offense, is better positioned than ever to stress a defense: With his turnovers down and a steady running back duo, Mayfield excelled on play-action passes, ranking among the top five in passer rating and yards per attempt on those plays, according to Pro Football Focus. So long as the Browns can move the ball steadily and consistently, Mayfield’s daring is still an effective surprise attack.Is Seattle’s defense repaired?Seattle’s defense looked potent as the Seahawks won six of their final seven regular season games.Credit…Stephen Brashear/Associated PressThrough nine games, a Seahawks team that once prided itself on its defense — that built its identity on it, that won a Super Bowl because of it — was winning even though that unit allowed an average of 30.1 points and 441.1 yards. A defensive turnabout began with a Week 11 victory against Arizona, and the Seahawks won six of their last seven games of the regular season by yielding the fewest points and third fewest yards per play over that stretch.Was this simply regression? Or did Seattle fix what was broken?Call it a patchwork fix. Carlos Dunlap, the defensive end Seattle added at the trade deadline from Cincinnati, had critical victory-sealing sacks against Arizona and Washington. Jamal Adams, a versatile safety picked up from the Jets in the off-season, helped too, by adding to the strong play from linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. Without question, the defensive improvement was real.It just might not be permanent. With Adams and defensive tackle Jarran Reed injured, the defense’s overall strength will again be tested in the wild card game against the Rams. While the Seahawks would benefit if Rams quarterback Jared Goff can’t play, they could struggle to sustain pressure on opposing quarterbacks in the next round if they don’t get those key pieces back quickly.Which coordinator is most important to their team?Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said he hit the “reset button” on the team’s offense in Week 13.Credit…Nick Wass/Associated PressFrom Leslie Frazier of Buffalo and Dennis Allen of New Orleans on defense to Eric Bieniemy of Kansas City and Arthur Smith of Tennessee on offense, numerous coordinators had an outsize impact on their team’s success. But none will be quite as vital these playoffs as Greg Roman of Baltimore, the mastermind behind the Ravens’ revived — and fearsome — offense.Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson called Roman’s offense “predictable” in mid-November, before the team lost three consecutive games. Roman recently said he hit “the reset button” after those losses, right before Baltimore thrashed Dallas in Week 13. Winning their last five games, a stretch that coincides with quarterback Jackson’s return from Covid-19, the Ravens lead the N.F.L. in rushing and rank second in points per game and yards per play.A healthier and more stable offensive line has helped J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Jackson take advantage, especially on the outside, in a reconfigured run game.Roman is familiar with resets. He was on Baltimore’s staff in 2018, when Jackson replaced the injured Joe Flacco and Baltimore reworked its offense on the fly. And as San Francisco’s offensive coordinator in 2012, when starting quarterbackAlex Smith got hurt midseason, Roman reimagined an offense that catered to Colin Kaepernick’s dynamism, helping the 49ers reach the Super Bowl.The Ravens are peaking, but they are trailed by memories of what happened last postseason, when Jackson committed three turnovers in an upset loss to Tennessee — their opponent on Sunday. If Roman can help Jackson get the first playoff win of his career, the Ravens’ biggest win will have been changing the narrative on their ceiling.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More